Posts for Ticker ‘DIVX’

Cult Stock Earnings Bonanza (DIVX, VCLK, CROX, HANS, LOCM, RNWK, RICK, TRLG, VG)

While most of the investment community goes out breaking down earnings for major stocks, there is a huge interest in many of the cult stocks reporting earnings.  Among the cult stocks we have reporting this week, the following is a list of key stocks reporting:  DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ: DIVX), ValueClick Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK), CROCS Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX), Hansen Natural Corporation (NASDAQ: HANS), Local.com Corp. (NASDAQ: LOCM), RealNetworks Inc. (NASDAQ: RNWK), Rick’s Cabaret International Inc. (NASDAQ: RICK), True Religion Apparel Inc. (NASDAQ: TRLG), and Vonage Holdings Corporation (NYSE: VG). 

Cult stocks are often fad stocks, but they tend to see explosive volume on news and often have high short interest.  Many of these stocks have been covered in our weekly "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter we send out too.  Here is a breakdown of these individually:

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The 52-Week Low Club (AMR)(KLAC)(HUM)

Progenics Pharmaceuticals (PGNX) Clinical trials fail. Drops to $4.33 from 52-week high of $27.59.

Divx Inc (DIVX) Bad 2008 forecast. Shares sell off to $6.12 from 52-week high of $23.76.

Immucor (BLUD) Buy-out of smaller company kills share price. Down to $17.30 from 52-week high of $39.96.

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) Shares downgraded. Slips to $37.75 from 52-week high of $62.67.

Humana (HUM) Cuts forecasts. Dives to $33.45 from 52-week of $88.10.

AMR Corporation (AMR) Airline stocks downgraded as oil price goes up. Plunges to $9.13 from 52-week high of $34.25.

Douglas A. McIntyre

DivX Looks Like Golfing Divot (DIVX)

Hitting a 52-week low on news is one thing, but blowing through it is another.  When you consider it coming from a hot IPO touted by Cramer at one point then it’s even worse.  Enter DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ: DIVX).

DivX is being punished in after-hours trading.  The media player company posted a 47% revenue gain to $24.5 million, while earnings were $0.11 GAAP EPS and $0.16 non-GAAP.  First Call had estimates pegged at $0.15 non-GAAP EPS on $22.54 million in revenues.  These would have been fine, except for their guidance below.

Is expects revenue for technology licensing of about 75% for the first quarter and 75% to 85% for the balance of 2008; expected revenue for media and other distribution and services of about 25% for Q1 and 15% to 25% for the balance of 2008.  Here was its formal growth forecast, and here lies the problem:

  • It is also forecasting $24.5 to $25.5 million in Q1 revenues and $95 to $100 million for 2008, and it sees its core non-GAAP EPS for Q1 at $0.13 to $0.15 EPS and sees 2008 at $0.44 to $0.52 EPS.  First Call has Q1 estimates at $0.19 non-GAAP EPS on $26.29 million revenues, and estimates for 2008 are $0.67 non-GAAP EPS and $104.24 million in revenues.

That old break-up looks farther and farther away.

If you read through the quotes, it is all positive in the start.  DivX noted that the 2008 focus will be its highly profitable core licensing business and other key growth strategies balanced with managing investments for growth and delivering shareholder value.  Unfortunately, it also notes that it has less visibility for the second half of 2008 and it is taking a "measured approach."  It sees non-GAAP projected EBITDA up 25% to 30% for full fiscal 2008.

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The 52-Week Low Club

Wellcare Health Plans (WCG) Regulators keep asking for more info and class action suits are beginning. Shares fall to $21.41 from 52-week high of $128.42.

Qwest Communications (Q) Big telecom company turns in ugly forecast. Shares fall to $6.94 from 52-week high of $10.45.

Rite Aid Corporation (RAD) Still dogged by high costs and low margins on generic drugs. Falls to $3.80 from 52-week high of $6.74.

American Medical Systems (AMMD) Lowers outlook for the year and is hit with downgrade. Drops to $11.89 from 52-week high of $33.18.

Openwave Systems (OPWV) Still slipping after last week’s earnings. Drops to $3.86 from 52-week high of $10.58.

Divx Inc (DIVX) Deal the company has with Google (GOOG) gets unpleasant amendment. Share move down to $12.24 from 52-week high of $31.89.

Douglas A. McIntyre

DivX New Strategy More Than Strange (DIVX)

DivX Inc. (NASDAQ:DIVX) is a company where it goes without saying that it has been in trouble for shareholders.  This went from a smoking hot post-IPO performer after Jim Cramer endorsed it, then it ran up too much, then the selling started, and then it went from a perceived boom to a perceived bust.

This Tuesday the company made a strange ‘maximizing value’ announcement for one that has only been public for about 10 months.  The company said that co-founder and chairman Jordan Greenhall would step down from his role as CEO to lead the process of a spin-out of Stage6.  Kevin Hell, the Company’s President, has been named Acting Chief Executive Officer.  Did Kevin say "Hell Yes!" on this?  It seems like this move for two growth engines might only create two smaller fish in a growing pond, and perhaps a pond with an undertow.

We would have covered this earlier, but in the midst of two major sell-offs a company-specific story like this is hardly worth the effort.  In June, almost 10 million unique visitors visited the Stage6 website, compared to 4 million in April. As a result, Stage6 recently became one of the Top 200 most-visited websites, according to Alexa.com.  If you visit Alexa that super high site ranking for Stage6 is different, although a comparison on the actual DivX.com website review on Alexa does show a much higher ranking consistent with the company’s loose description of the split.

Unfortunately, it also says that Stage6 will require ’substantial additional financial investment to continue its dramatic traffic growth and realize its full potential.’ This will supposedly allow DivX to narrow its focus and drive its core strategy forward.  We will get a separate financial report from the two companies with earnings on August 9. 

The company couldn’t have picked a more unlucky week to make the announcement with the market slide.  That certainly isn’t the company’s fault, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t its problem.  Shares briefly hit a new all-time low at $12.20 this morning when the market gapped down after the open.  Its trading range since its IPO is now $12.20 to $31.89 and if the company hits the consensus estimates for the year it trades close to 25-times fiscal 2007 earnings and a tad more than 5-times revenue.  It is also worth about 3-times tangible book value, but that is based on the prior quarter and may be different after the new earnings.  The stock might not be expensive on the surface, but such difficult issues out of a recent IPO that is deemed "hot" by traders usually sinks interest in a stock for some time.

Maybe the worst is behind it with shares so low.  We won’t know until it releases results, and shares have already bounced this morning.  Either way, this is much more than unusual for such a young company and with the tightening credit demands of late you have to at least keep it in your mind that ‘funding’ could come at a significantly higher price than just a few weeks ago.

Jon C. Ogg
July 27, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

DivX Signs SanDisk Partnership; Will It Matter? (DIVX, SNDK)

DivX (DIVX-NASDAQ) has announced a licensing agreement allowing SanDisk (SNDK-NASDAQ) to include DivX technology in SanDisk’s Sansa line of video-enabled products.  Future SanDisk video products can now include interoperability with the DivX Stage6 video website and can now provide SanDisk consumers with seamless access to the video content available today in the DivX format.

Shares of DivX are indicated up 2% pre-market on very thin volume, although this may be more on the headline than it will be off the actual news.  The company is so far down since its IPO that any ‘non-bad’ or ‘less-bad’ headline may be a boost.  But in the end, you have to wonder if this will really translate into very much in revenues for DivX.

Jon C. Ogg
June 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.