24/7 Wall St. has gone through the industrial products, chemicals, and heavy equipment makers to see which outfits offer investors the least risk and most reward.  Consensus targets are from Thomson Reuters and we have evaluated the following: Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD); The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA); Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT); Deere & Company (NYSE: DE); The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW); E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE: DD); Danaher Corp. (NYSE: DHR); and Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW).

Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) traded at $79.50 with a market value of $16.8 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $98.75 and the 52-week trading range is $72.26 to $98.00.  Air Products’ most recent yield was listed as 3.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 24% but we would note that the consensus target is still above the 52-week high.

The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) traded at $71.05 with a market value of $53.2 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $86.08 and the 52-week trading range is $56.01 to $78.35.  This DJIA component’s most recent yield was listed as about 2.5%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 21% but we would note that the consensus target is almost $8.00 higher than the 52-week high and you have to go back to before the recession to find Boeing shares that high.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) traded at $91.25 with a market value of $59.5 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $130.95 and the 52-week trading range is $67.54 to $116.95.  Caterpillar’s most recent yield was listed as 2.0%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 44% but we would note that the consensus target is almost 10% above the 52-week high.

Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) traded at $74.50 with a market value of $30 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $92.79 and the 52-week trading range is $59.92 to $89.70.  Deere’s most recent yield was listed as 2.4%. The implied upside to the consensus target is about 25% but we would note that the consensus target is about $3.00 higher than the 52-week high.

The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) traded at $30.00 with a market value of $35.9 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $37.23 and the 52-week trading range is $20.61 to $37.30.  Dow’s most recent yield was listed as a very high 4.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 24% but we would note that the consensus effectively is the same as the 52-week high.

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE: DD) traded at $48.40 with a market value of $45.3 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $58.33 and the 52-week trading range is $37.10 to $56.20.  DuPont’s yield was listed as about 3.5%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 20% and that target is about $2.00 above the 52-week high.

Danaher Corp. (NYSE: DHR) traded at $51.85 with a market value of $35.9 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $60.95 and the 52-week trading range is $39.34 to $56.45.  Danaher’s most recent yield was tiny at only 0.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target is only about 17% and it is worth noting that the analyst consensus target is more than $4.00 above the 52-week high.

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW) traded at $54.40 with a market value of $26 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $61.53 and the 52-week trading range is $39.12 to $59.27.  ITW’s most recent yield was listed as 2.6%. The implied upside to the consensus target is only about 13%, making this the least ‘implied upside’ winner of the lot.  This one is also only down about 8% from its most recent high as well.

You can see that there is a very mixed bag here.  The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) leads in the dividend department with a 4.2% yield.  Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is the leader with ‘implied analyst upside’ of 44% but it seems a stretch in the upside if you look at where the stock has been and how volatile the stock has been.  Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW) has the least amount of ‘implied analyst upside’ but it has also held up among the best during the market sell-off.

Gold & Silver Miners With Most Upside & Value

Major Oil Companies WIth Most Upside & Value

Conglomerates With Most Upside & Value

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JON C. OGG

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.

Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) Cut to Neutral at UBS.

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARNA) Raised to Outperform at BMO.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Resumed as Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Demand Media, Inc. (NYSE: DMD) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Fossil, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

The Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY) Raised to Buy at Argus.

Jive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: JIVE) Started as Hold at Needham

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) Cut to Neutral at UBS.

Mercadolibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James.

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd (NYSE: QIHU) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: UBNT) Started as Outperform at Wedbush (late Tuesday call).

Youku Inc. (NYSE: YOKU) Started as Hold at ThinkEquity.

If you enjoyed the top analyst upgrades and downgrades, you can join our free email newsletter that includes analyst summaries each morning sent right to your inbox.  We also cover top issues such as IPOs, special financial exclusives, mergers and more. Sign up in the box below.

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JON C. OGG

The ten companies planning to make the most cuts this month account for nearly 35% of the monthly total.

The top three job cutters for the month include First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), PPG Industries Inc. (NYSE: PPG), and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), each of which plans to cut 2,000 jobs this month in corporate restructurings.

The state of Washington plans to cut 1,266 government jobs in April to save money; American Airlines is cutting 1,200 non-union workers as part of its bankruptcy restructuring; Albertson’s food stores are firing 1,130 workers in Florida where the chain is closing all its stores; the US Department of Agriculture is chopping 1,000 chicken inspectors as a cost-cutting move; and the San Diego Unified School District plans to let 975 educators go in another effort to save money.

Rounding out the top ten are The Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) which is cutting 900 jobs; Grove Park Inn, also cutting 900 jobs as the result of a merger with KSL Resorts; and Kimberly-Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB), cutting 760 jobs in a restructuring move.

The slightly better news is that the monthly average for the first four months of 2012 is lower than the monthly average for the first four months of 2011, 45,913 compared with 50,507.

The largest number of planned cuts were in the education sector, where state and local governments have been forced to trim jobs as revenues sink and budget deficits rise. The sector is looking at job cuts of 9,027 in April, up a whopping 142% from the March total of 3,733 job cuts. The slightly better news here, as well, is that total job losses in 2012 to date are lower than for the same period a year ago.

Government agencies are also reducing the number of cuts they are planning. Challenger’s CEO noted:

There have been some concerns that the economy may be headed for a repeat of last year’s spring and summer slowdown. While job gains may indeed hit a lull in the coming months, we do not foresee a sudden upsurge in downsizing activity. Even with the increased job cuts in consumer products, retail and transportation, the monthly totals remain well below levels that would signal a reversal in the recovery.

Job losses since 2010 have averaged about 47,000/month, compared with 104,000/month in 2008 and 2009. According to Challenger:

Job creation, while in positive territory for 25 consecutive months, has definitely ebbed and flowed. Even at its best, job creation is falling well short of what is needed to make a substantial dent in unemployment. While some would like to attribute the lack of hiring to uncertainty and regulatory roadblocks, the fact is that demand for goods and services simply has not reached a level that warrants accelerated hiring.

Reduced government spending and soft consumer spending are being partially offset by increases in business spending, but overall spending remains too weak to “drive the economy forward.”

Paul Ausick

Data courtesy of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) reported that it was lifting its dividend by a sharp 28% to $0.32 per quarter from a prior payout of $0.25 per quarter.  Based upon the $32.67 closing bell, the new yield is now going to be about 3.9%.

The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is still a relatively low dividend yield but the potash and fertilizers player is trying to get its payouts higher now that it has less and less influence held by the Cargill Trusts.  Its hike went up 150% to $0.125 from $0.05 per quarter.  The prior dividend yield will go from almost 0.4% up to just under 1.0% based upon a $51.17 closing price on Thursday.

Teekay Offshore GP LLC, the general partner of Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. (NYSE: TOO) declared a cash distribution of $0.5125 per unit for the last quarter, an increase of $0.0125 or 2.5 percent from the previous quarter.

Teekay GP LLC, the general partner of Teekay LNG Partners L.P. (NYSE: TGP) declared a cash distribution of $0.675 per unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2012, up $0.045 or about 7 percent per unit from the previous quarter.

H.B. Fuller Company (NYSE: FUL) announced after the close on Thursday that it would increase its quarterly dividend from $0.075 to $0.085 per share of common stock for a 13% dividend increase.  The new yield is about 1.05%.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is being represented as a stock dividend, but this is a share structure change that is effectively a two-for-one stock split.

JON C. OGG

With that in mind, we’ve looked at several companies involved in basic industries like heavy equipment, chemicals, and electrical components to try to determine if there are any value plays available to investors. The companies we examined were Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. (NYSE: DD), The Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW), Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE), Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD), and Emerson Electric Co. (NYSE: EMR).

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) has a consensus target price of $131.61. At a current price this morning of $116.00, the company’s implied gain is 13.5%. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained more than 28%, with a 12-month share price gain of nearly 15.5%. The company’s forward P/E ratio is 10.23 and Caterpillar pays a dividend yield of 1.6%. The world’s largest maker of construction and farming machinery expects to grow EPS by 25% year-over-year in 2012 to about $9.25 and to double to as much as $20/share by 2015. Given Cat’s past success, none of this is out of reach.

E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. (NYSE: DD), or DuPont, has a consensus price target of $56.47. At its current price of $51.29, Dupont’s implied gain is 10%. Year-to-date shares are up about 12%, but for the preceding 12 months, the company’s stock is down more than -3%. The company’s forward P/E ratio is 10.68 and DuPont pays a dividend yield of 3.2%. DuPont is auctioning its car paint business and could reap as much as $4 billion at the time of sale. The company has struck some recent deals with Chinese solar panel makers and DuPont expects to continue increasing its sales in the agriculture, alternative energy, and other high-value markets.

The Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) has a consensus target price of $36.92. At a current price of $34.07, the potential upside is 8.4%. Dow shares have lost about -4% in the past 12 months, though since January shares have risen more than 18%. The company’s forward P/E ratio is 9.96 and Dow pays a dividend yield of 3.0%. Like other chemical companies, Dow is getting a nice benefit from low natural gas prices. The company expects 2012 growth in all its operating divisions, with agriculture and plastics leading the gains.

Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) has a consensus target price of $94.59. At the current price of $83.84, the implied gain is 12.8%. For the past 12 months, the stock has dropped -5.6% though shares are up about 8.5% in the new year. The company’s forward P/E ratio is 10.01 and Deere pays a dividend yield of 1.90%. In the company’s most recent quarter, EPS beat estimates, but sales were a little slower than investors had hoped for. At less than half the market cap of Caterpillar, Deere’s long-term debt is also less than half Cat’s. That gives it some flexibility, and allowed the company to offer $1 billion in 5- and 10-year notes earlier this week at coupons of 1.4% and 2.75%, respectively.

Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) has a consensus target price of $100.60. At the current share price of $92.20, the potential upside is 9%. The company’s shares posted a slight gain of 1.4% in the past 12 months, and are up more than 8% since the beginning of the year. The company’s forward P/E ratio is 13.68 and Air Products pays a dividend yield of 2.60%. One of S&P’s Dividend Aristocrats, Air Products had only a so-so quarter and doesn’t expect a lot of improvement until the second half of this year.

Emerson Electric Co. (NYSE: EMR) has a consensus target price of $56.42. At the current share price of $50.90, the potential upside for the stock is 10.8%. Emerson’s shares have lost about -14% in the past 12 months, but are up more than 9% year-to-date. The company’s forward P/E ratio is 12.80 and Emerson pays a dividend yield of 3.10%. Another of S&P’s Dividend Aristocrats, Emerson had a sub-par first fiscal quarter, but is expecting to resume sales growth both in its networking and its climate products business as bandwidth demand grows in the US and new housing construction ticks up.

Between the two equipment makers, Caterpillar has performed better over the past year and really shows no signs of pulling back. Among the chemical companies, there is no clear choice and all are pretty fully valued at this point. The make-or-break for these companies will be natural gas prices, which should rise as production of gas is cut back. Emerson is counting on a continued buildout of wireless networks and a rise in home and office building construction. Overall, Caterpillar seems to be the best choice.

Paul Ausick

Over the past two months, PMI data from Germany and France have prompted most experts to believe that Germany and France were recovering. The International Monetary Fund expressed its opinion that the UK would grow slowly this year, as has Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King. Neither believes that the improvement will be robust, but it has begun, nonetheless.

The debate about the economies of Germany, France and the UK may be academic. The difference between a 0.1% drop in GDP and a 0.1% improvement will not be enough to improve employment, factory production or consumer spending. The ripple effect of the flat line of growth is that the fear of contagion to the U.S. and Chinese economies will come true. The IMF argued in favor of this pessimistic point of view last month as it cut GDP forecasts for most large nations, but data from Europe’s largest economies, the U.S. and China’s PMI argued that improvement would outrun the skeptics.

The recovery, particularly in China and the U.S., is supposed to take root this spring. U.S. tax breaks and improved job creation should increase consumer spending and business investment. The piles of cash held by large American companies will be put to work to invest in expansion. And China’s recent data on exports and factory activity have shown a pick up in the past month. The People’s Republic is so highly dependent on exports that some large part of the global economy has driven and will drive the improvement. As a matter of fact, China’s export machine is so large that it should be considered a proxy for global economic activity.

What has caused the sudden, deep concern about Europe? Probably economic predictions of a recovery got ahead of themselves. When the global economy is so delicate, it is easy for that to happen.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Fed president Richard Fisher says there is no need for QE3. (Reuters)

Panasonic posts a quarterly loss of $2.6 billion. (Reuters)

Martha Stewart Omnimedia (NYSE: MSO) says a provision in its deal with Macy’s (NYSE: M) would let it move ahead with its new JCPenney (NYSE: JCP) deal. (Reuters)

The U.S. plans to spend $2.8 billion to upgrade the F-16. (Reuters)

The Senate will pass a bill that makes it illegal for members of Congress to engage in insider trading. (WSJ)

Glencore and Xstrata may merge because of the rise in value of natural resources. (WSJ)

Bank “rainy day” funds may be run down by a need to boost earnings. (WSJ)

PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) will buy into Canadian shale assets to ensure future supply. (WSJ)

Corporate profits have risen but the portion paid out in taxes has fallen. (WSJ)

The Government Accountability Office says many hospitals overpay for devices. (WSJ)

The Obama Administration will accelerate the approval of wind farms off the East Coast. (WSJ)

Facebook will push advertisers to use its Sponsored Stories to increase its revenue. (WSJ)

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) will try to add to the security of its Android mobile-device software to combat hackers. (WSJ)

The head of Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) says Europe is in a recession. (WSJ)

New York Times (NYSE: NYT) profits fall as digital revenue fails to grow enough to offset print. (WSJ)

CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) will set an insurance program to help farmers after the collapse of MF Global. (WSJ)

A St. Louis Federal Reserve report shows that startup growth has slowed. (WSJ)

Excess natural gas supplies could cause a price crash in the spring. (WSJ)

The Securities and Exchange Commission allows big banks to avoid some sanctions. (NYT)

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research says the UK will be in recession this year. (NYT)

Greek tax reform has not overcome the nation’s inability to collect taxes. (NYT)

China may put money into the European Stability Mechanism/European Financial Stability Facility to help the region. (FT)

In testimony before Congress, Bernanke expresses concern about the growth of the economy. (FT)

Greece faces more trouble in its effort to remain in the eurozone as its rescue falters. (Bloomberg)

Deutsche Bank will not take European Central Bank loans in a move to protect its reputation. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

The chemicals giant reported earnings of $0.25 per share versus expectations of $0.30 EPS.  Too bad this was soft because many felt the bar was set low considering that it has raised prices and is claiming to have some pricing power.  Revenues rose 2.4% to $14.1 billion, also short of the $14.25 billion expected.

Sales in emerging markets reached a new record at $5 billion and total Volume declined 3%, but these were ex-divestitures.  China volume was up 12%, offsetting a weak -5% drop in Europe and a 2% drop in the United States.

Dow is not anticipating any sudden recovery in market conditions for the first quarter of the year, but it does see economic recovery gaining momentum in the second quarter and through the rest of 2012.

Dow shares are down 3.2% at $32.66 in the pre-market trading on almost 50,000 shares and the 52-week range is $20.61 to $42.23.  The current dividend yield is about 3%.

JON C. OGG

We have two homebuilder earnings due from Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) and PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM).  Other key earnings to watch will be from the following: Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX); Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX); CME Group Inc. (NYSE: CME); Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW); Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW); Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD); International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP); Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K); MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA); Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK); Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL); Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT); Trimble Navigation Ltd. (NASDAQ: TRMB); Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX); YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW).

We have included Thomson Reuters consensus estimates on each company.  On most we have included pricing data and/or other bits of color for traders to consider.

We have two different homebuilders on deck to report.  Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) is expected to post -$0.36 EPS on $211.4 million in sales and we would watch cancellation rates on contracts as well as the quality of the earnings.  Second is PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) with an expected positive earnings of $0.07 EPS on $1.14 billion in sales.  Pulte’s cancellation rates and quality of earnings will also have to be monitored.

Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX) will show private equity wealth and earnings in the morning.  The firm is expected to report earnings of $0.38 EPS on revenues of $986.75 million.

Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) has been down and out for longer than any current and past holder would like to consider.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.08 EPS on $1.91 billion in sales.

CME Group Inc. (NYSE: CME) is expected to report earnings of $3.71 EPS and $754 million in sales before the market opens.  With a possibility of a state-relocation and the ongoing pressure of exchange mergers we would be watching this one.  At roughly $244.50, the 52-week trading range is $224.69 to $317.27.

Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) is expected to turn in earnings of $0.30 EPS on $14.19 billion in sales.  The report is due in the morning.

Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) is expected to report earnings of $0.19 EPS on $2.58 billion in sales.  The shares are now up over 60% from the lows of the last year and the stock still remains pressured due to the mortgage insurance overhang that has been in place for quite some time.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) has shocked the market by outperforming despite what appears to be a bad use of effort and capital in the large acquisition.  Still, shares hit a new 52-week high on Wednesday.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.05 EPS and $2.18 billion in sales. 

International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP) is close to being within striking range of a 52-week high and it pays well above a 3% yield today.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.61 EPS and $6.5 billion in sales.

Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) is lagging and actually close to a 52-week low with shares around the $49.50 mark. The estimates are $0.63 on $2.99 billion in sales.  The bar is set very low here.

MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) will show just what the interchange fee problems look like, but that is not fully reflected at all in current numbers.  The consensus estimates are $3.92 EPS and $1.73 billion in sales. With shares around $357 some are concerned over valuations here.

Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is reporting early Thursday morning and the company’s higher dividend hike has shares trading very close to 52-week highs with a price of close to $38.70 andf a 52-week range of $29.47 to $39.43.  Estimates are $0.95 EPS and $12.53 billion in sales. To show just how low growth is the estimates of $3.76 EPS and $48.23 billion in sales for all of 2011 are only expected to be $3.83 EPS on $47.62 billion in sales for all of 2012.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) may or may not release.  With its rival’s disaster, we are not doing much legwork here.  Thomson Reuters has a projection of $0.15 EPS and $1.78 billion in sales.

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT) is key for hotel investors and this one is expected to post $0.57 EPS on $1.42 billion in sales. Starwood has over $1 billion in cash but is still trading at a high 3.7-times book value.

Trimble Navigation Ltd. (NASDAQ: TRMB) is not so widely watched on its own, but it is used as a barometer reading for Garmin.  Trimble estimates are $0.48 EPS and $419.10.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX) has been in the news with new FDA approvals.  We have Thursday as the tentative date and estimates are $0.73 EPS and $523.66 million in sales.

YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) is set to report and it is a puzzlement as to how this stock is still alive.  On a reverse split basis the $12.83 price compares to a 52-week range of $7.94 to somewhere over $1,000.  The consensus is listed as -$6.97 EPS but we have no idea how these targets are composed on this company.

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JON C. OGG

The petrochemicals produced at the plant are targeted for sale in Asian countries such as Myanmar, Bangladesh, and parts of India where the products would be used to make goods like synthetic rubber. Petronas is expected to supply feedstock for the plants from equity investments in oil fields in Africa and Venezuela, leaving its own dwindling reserves of high-quality crude for refining into gasoline. The project is scheduled for completion in 2016.

Paul Ausick