The US dollar index rose today, now up 0.11% at 79.221. The GSCI commodity index is down about -1.3% at 678.65, with commodities mixed on the small gains in the dollar. WTI crude oil closed down -2.6% at $102.54/barrel, and Brent crude trades down -1.84% at $116.02/barrel. Gold settled down -1.2% today, at $1,634.80/ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 62 points to 13,206.59 (-0.47%), the NASDAQ fell more than 35 points (-01.16%) to 3,024.30, and the S&P 500 fell -0.77% or nearly 11 points to 1,391.57.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) maintained as ‘buy’ but target price cut to $31 at BofA/ML and raised to ‘outperform’ at Bernstein; Level 3 Communications Inc. (NYSE: LVLT) reiterated ‘buy’ at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey and cut to ‘neutral’ at Piper Jaffary; Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) reiterated as ‘buy’ at BofA/ML; and Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) raised to ‘outperform’ with a $185 target price at Credit Suisse.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX) is down -4.4% at $7.63; Corinthian Colleges Inc. (NASDAQ: COCO) is down -21.6% at $3.05; Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) is down -3.7% at $91.99; Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) is down -2.6% at $18.42; YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) is down -8% at $6.79; Steve Madden Ltd. (NASDAQ: SHOO) is down -1.7% at $43.54; Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE) is up 0.6% at $64.29 after posting a new 52-week high of $65.37 earlier today; Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE) is down -1% at $22.10; Royal Gold Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) is down -2.6% at $59.43 (more coverage here); Orbitz Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: OWW) is up 4.9% at $4.09; General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) is down -2.3% at $22.42 (more coverage here); and MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) is down -4.4% at $12.95.

Tomorrow we get earnings from AES Corp. (NYSE: AES), Cheniere Energy Inc. (AMEX: LNG), Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK), Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE: EL), Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR), and The Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) is down -47.3% at $26.11. The company reported earnings last night, and lowered guidance. More coverage here and here.

Kensey Nash Corp. (NASDAQ: KNSY) is up 32.2% at $38.35. The company is being acquired by a Dutch firm for $360 million. More coverage here.

Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE: HLF) is down -12.7% at $46.02. The nutrition products company flubbed some questions at last night’s conference call. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Friday. San Francisco Fed President John Williams is giving a speech. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Non-farm payrolls
• 3:00 p.m. – Treasury STRIPS

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The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 11 points to 13,268.65 (-0.08%), the NASDAQ rose more than 9 points (0.31%) to 3,059.85, and the S&P 500 fell -0.25% or more than 3 points to 1,402.31.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) cut to ‘neutral’ at R.W. Baird; ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/ML and started as ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) raised to ‘buy’ at Auriga; STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE: STM) raised to ‘buy’ at Goldman Sachs and raised to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup; and Assurant Inc. (NYSE: AIZ) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/ML.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) is down -2.8% at $39.30 (more coverage here); Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) is down -4.4% at $28.85; Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) is down -0.8% at $452.14; Allergan Inc. (NYSE: AGN) is down -4.3% at $92.29; Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) is down -2.6% at $14.36; Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) is down -1.6% at $37.30; The Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) is down -3.3% at $67.74; Rowan Companies Inc. (NYSE: RDC) is up 1.3% at $34.97; R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. (NASDAQ: RRD) is down -7% at $11.79; Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO) is down -1.2% at $3.41; and IAC/InterActiveCorp. (NASDAQ: IACI) is up 3.3% at $50.34 after posting a new 52-week high of $52.77 earlier today.

Tomorrow we get earnings from First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX), Corinthian Colleges Inc. (NASDAQ: COCO), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), Orbitz Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: OWW), and Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) among many others.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Chesapeake Energy is down -13.5% at $16.95 after posting a new 52-week low of $15.86 earlier today. The natural gas producer reported weak results and more troubles for CEO Aubrey McClendon. More coverage here.

Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is down -1% at $30.29. The cable company reported good earnings this morning. More coverage here.

Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) is down -18.8% at $1.51. An analyst has said that the company insolvent. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, and San Francisco Fed President John Williams are speaking at a conference. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:30 a.m. – Challenger job cut report
• 8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
• 8:30 a.m. – Productivity and costs report
• 10:00 a.m. – ISM non-manufacturing index
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
• 4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply

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To start with the worst, Frontline is down more than -88% for the year, and its median target price has dropped to $6.00 from $7.25 in late October. At today’s share price of $2.98, the potential upside is slightly more than 100%. DryShips is not much better, with a lower target price of $5.00. At today’s price of $2.37, the implied gain is nearly 111%. Neither Excel nor Diana is as bad, but neither is likely to achieve anywhere near their implied gains of 63% and 46%, respectively. The shipping business has too many ships sailing around at unprofitable day rates. Until that situation resolves itself — not likely until 2013 — anything that resembles value in the shipping business is likely a mirage.

Railroads are faring better because rail traffic is up. The Association of American Railroads reported this morning that November carload traffic on US railroads grew 4% compared with November 2010. Intermodal traffic (containers) grew by 3.7% year-over-year. The largest increase came in motor vehicle carloads, which grew by 42% compared with last year and petroleum product carloads which grew by more than 28%.

Another large gain, more than 30%, came in carloads of crushed stone, sand, and gravel. Because beach sand is the most common material used in hydraulic fracturing of oil and gas wells, it’s probably a reasonable assumption to give the drilling industry credit for the increase.

Of the four railroads, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern have both had target price boosts since late October. Union Pacific’s median target price is $114.00, up from $110.00. At a current price of $102.70, the potential upside in UP’s stock is 11%. The company’s dividend yield of 2.4% is also tied with Norfolk Southern’s for the best in the group.

Norfolk Southern’s median target price is $85.50, up from $82.00. At a current price of $74.90, the stock has a potential upside of 14.5%. With a slightly higher implied gain and an equal dividend yield, Norfolk Southern might be the best bet among the railroads.

In trucking, J.B. Hunt’s median target price fell from $49.00 to $48.00, but that was quite likely due to two brokers dropping coverage. At today’s price of $$45.40, the potential upside for the stock is just 5.7%. The company pays a dividend yield of 1.2%.

Landstar’s median target price is $52.00, up half a dollar from late October, and again likely due to a drop in the number of brokers covering the stock. At today’s price of $45.90, the potential upside for the stock is 13.3%. Landstar pays a dividend yield of 0.5%. Earlier this week, Landstar was downgraded from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ at SunTrust.

Of the two trucking companies, neither has a clear edge over the other. Hunt is more fully valued, but the company reported record results in the third quarter. If Hunt can do that again, then the current target price will be left way behind. Hunt’s strength in intermodal transportation could easily make that happen.

Of all ten stocks reviewed here, Norfolk Southern may be the safest bet, but J.B. Hunt may add more significant growth potential to its relatively limited upside potential.

Paul Ausick

Transportation stocks get a lot more attention as economic bellwethers than they do as market participants. Railroads, ships, and trucks are not particularly glamorous, and the industries are so entrenched that they most resemble utility stocks.

The companies included in today’s overview are CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (NYSE: CP), Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX), DryShips, Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: EXM), Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO), JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT), and LandStar System Inc. (NASDAQ: LSTR).

Of the ten stocks we’re looking at today, only one trades more than 10 million shares a day and most of the others trade less than 3 million.  On the surface, it would seem that all these stocks would more or less trade in parallel. In practice, though, railroads and trucking companies are faring far better than sea-borne shippers. Railroads are hauling more coal, and trucking companies are having trouble meeting demand for their services. Shippers overbuilt their fleets, and the resulting collapse in day rates has been punishing for their top and bottom lines.

Cargo traffic is closely watched at this time of year as a predictor of holiday retail sales. Typically, ocean container shipping headed to the US tips the coming strength of retail sales. This year, container shipments have been somewhat lower, and this month’s totals will really tell the tale. Rail and truck traffic has been strong though, although the shortage of available trucks is diverting more container (intermodal) traffic to the railroads.

All data from Yahoo! Finance, and share prices were collected shortly before noon today.

CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) has a median target price of $27.00 from 24 brokers. Shares are trading today at $22.66, for an implied gain of $4.34, or 19%. CSX’s forward P/E is 11.73 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2.3%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $17.69-$27.06, and at today’s price that’s about 28% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 16% below the 52-week high. CSX met analysts’ expectations when it reported third quarter earnings about 10 days ago. The company noted a 15% jump in intermodal freight revenue, although volume was essentially unchanged from the same period a year ago. CSX said at the time that it does not expect significant growth in the US, but neither does it predict a double-dip recession.

Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) has a median target price of $82.00 from 23 brokers. Shares are trading today at $74.74, for an implied gain of $7.26, or 10%. Norfolk Southern’s forward P/E is 12.91 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2.5%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $57.57-$78.40, and at today’s price that’s about 30% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 5% below the 52-week high. Norfolk Southern hauled 23% more coal in the third quarter than it did a year ago, and its intermodal traffic volume increased by 13%. Like CSX, the company expects modest economic growth in the US going forward. The company’s implied stock price gain is about half that of CSX, but with both coal and intermodal traffic up and growing, Norfolk Southern is more likely to bust through its current target price than the other railroads we’ve looked at today.

Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) has a median target price of $110.00 from 25 brokers. Shares are trading today at $102.35, for an implied gain of $7.65, or 7.5%. Union Pacific’s forward P/E is 13.15 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $77.73-$107.89, and at today’s price that’s about 32% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 5% below the 52-week high. Union Pacific posted third quarter earnings a week ago, and its international intermodal shipments were down -12% year-over-year. That implies that retailers are buying less in anticipation of a slower holiday shopping season.

Just as we tried to look at the effects of a crude price of $120/barrel a couple of weeks ago, today is a good day to look at what effect a crude price of $80/barrel might have. First of all, it would be very good news for consumers who might anticipate gasoline prices around $3.25/gallon, at least briefly. And US drivers need some cheering up.

An $80/barrel price would definitely be bad for big oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), and ConocoPhillips Corp. (NYSE: COP). Refiners, however could do better, especially those able to get WTI crude. US refiners situated along the Gulf Coast are essentially tied to Brent prices, while refiners further from the coast can get their hands on the cheaper WTI. That allows these companies to take advantage of the crude differential to achieve more margin.

Of the refiners, Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is most closely tied to the Gulf Coast and higher priced crude. Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC), Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO), and Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) all have more plants outside the Gulf Coast region, and thus, a better chance to take advantage of wider refining margins.

Another industry that should do well with $80/barrel crude is the airlines business. United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: UAL), Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL), AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), and Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV), among others, have been slammed by high fuel costs. Provided anyone can still afford to fly, airline fuel costs will fall and fares may follow.

Other transportation industries that use large amounts of fuel are shipping and railroads. Shipping companies like DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX), and Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. (NYSE: GNK) could catch a break from lower fuel costs. Unfortunately, over-capacity in dry bulk carriers could hold down any gain that might come from cheaper fuel.

Railroads might fare better. Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX), and Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) have been moving a lot more goods these days, and lower diesel fuel costs will make these stocks among the best able to take advantage of cheaper fuel. Loads are up, rates are up, and fuel is getting cheaper. That’s a potent combination.

Other transportation winners could include FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) and United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS), both of which are shipping more these days and have taken a hit as fuel prices were rising.

Finally, agriculture-related firms like fertilizer companies and machinery makers could get a boost from lower fuel costs. Ag companies like Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), and Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) all benefit from lower fuel costs in one way or another.

Of all the companies we’ve looked at here, only FedEx, UPS, and CF Industries is showing a gain today. CF Industries raised its annual dividend today from $0.40/share to $1.60/share, on top of a blowout quarterly earnings report. CF Industries’ shares are up more than 70% in the past 12 months, and the company expects the rest of 2011 to be just as strong as the first half.

Paul Ausick

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP (NYSE: BWP) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) Raised to Buy at SunTrust.
Celestica Inc. (NYSE: CLS) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Central Garden & Pet Company (NASDAQ: CENT) added as Value at Zacks.
CIENA Corporation (NASDAQ: CIEN) Raised to Neutral at UBS.
China Finance Online Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JRJC) Cut to Market Perform at Rodman & Renshaw.
Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX) Cut to Underperform at CRedit Suisse.
DryShips, Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) Raised to Buy at Stern Agee.
MediaMind Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: MDMD) Cut to Hold at ThinkEquity.
Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) Reiterated Outperform and raised target to $16 at Credit Suisse.
Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: MWW) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) Added to U.S. Focus List at Credit Suisse.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Raised to Buy at TD.
Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Sears Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) is scheduled to report results tomorrow, and analysts are expecting EPS of $0.16 on revenue of $234 million. For the June quarter, expectations rise to EPS of $0.22 on revenue of nearly $279 million. Many other shippers have already reported quarterly results, including Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX), Eagle Bulk Shipping, Inc. (NASDAQ: EGLE), and Excel Maritime Carriers, Ltd. (NYSE: EXM).

Charter rates remain low for both dry bulk and container shippers. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of dry bulk shipping rates, currently sits at $1,344, about double its low of around $663, but still well below year-ago rates of nearly $4,000. Container shipping rates are rising somewhat, but by less than the industry would hope. From Shanghai to the Europe, the cost of shipping a twenty-foot container (teu) fell from $925 to $919. Rates had been as high as $1,300/teu earlier this year. Meanwhile, the cost of bunker fuel from Asia to Europe have risen to a record high of $776/teu.

Ironically, Diana Shipping was able to beat expectations for its first quarter by expanding the size of its fleet. The company’s average charter rate for the quarter was $31,592, compared with $31,982 in the same period a year ago. But the company averaged more than 2 more vessels in operation this year, making up for the lower rates and higher fuel costs. Genco, like Diana, also added new vessels in the first quarter, which helped the company overcome a 37% decline in shipping rates.

Eagle posted an EPS loss of -$0.09 for the first quarter, including a $6.6 million one-time loss. Excluding the item, the company posted EPS of $0.01 on revenue of about $87 million, which was up 60% compared with the same period a year ago. The company is expected to post an EPS loss of -$0.01 next quarter on revenue of $65.5 million, a sharp sequential decline from first quarter revenue of $86.7 million.

Excel posted an EPS loss of -$0.01 on a doubling of expenses. The company’s blended charter day rate was down by -20% year-over-year.

The number of dry bulk ships is expected to increase by at least 10% this year, while cargoes are expected to rise by only 5%. Add in higher fuel costs, and the outlook for shippers in 2011 is decidedly downbeat.

Paul Ausick

One type of shipper that could benefit fairly quickly is dry bulk, the massive carriers that haul coal, iron ore, and other raw materials. The carriers include DryShips, Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX), and Genco Shipping & Trade Ltd. (NYSE: GNK). The Baltic Dry Index, BDI, is recovering slightly from a very low 1,064. As coal is required in Japan to generate electricity no longer available from the damaged nuclear reactors, dry bulk rates from Australia and from the west coast of the US could rise. The rises will be limited by the amount of coal Japan requires and the amount that dry bulk terminals can handle. Terminals and coal shippers on the east coast of the US could also benefit as coal cargoes bound for Europe could be diverted to Japan and additional ships put into service.

Container shippers like A.P. Moeller Maersk (OTC: AMKBF), Danaos Corp.(NYSE: DAC), and Seaspan Corp. (NYSE: SSW) could see a slight slowdown in shipping until Japanese manufacturers get back to work. That process will probably be slower than anticipated.

Crude oil carriers like Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO) and Nordic American Tanker Shipping Ltd. (NYSE: NAT) should see a pick-up as more crude cargoes are sent to Japan to help fuel electricity generation plants. Demand will be a function of how quickly Japan’s refineries can come back on-line, and the length of time the Japanese must depend on crude oil to fuel their generators. Another possibility is that refined products would need to be imported if re-opening the refineries is delayed for long.

Japan’s crude stocks stood at 169 days at the end of December 2010, according to Balkans.com. The country won’t want to run down its stocks and have to replenish them at higher crude prices, but by judiciously calling on its stocks, the country could mitigate some of the expenses from buying and shipping additional supplies of crude.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers include Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Teekay LNG Partners, L.P. (NYSE: TGP), and Golar LNG Ltd. (NASDAQ: GLNG). Japan is already the world’s largest importer of LNG and it is reasonable to expect the country to receive more in the days ahead. In the longer term, it could be that Japan decides to replace at least some of its nuclear generation with gas-fired generation. But that decision is still months away in all likelihood.

The lightly traded Guggenheim Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA) is up nearly 2% today, and Teekay LNG Partners and Golar are both up about the same amount. Most of the other shippers are trading slightly up as well, with only Dry Ships down slightly.

Paul Ausick

Earlier this month, Dryships Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) completed a private placement of shares worth a total of $500 million in its wholly-owned subsidiary Ocean Rig UDW Inc. The shares were newly-issued, unregistered shares priced at $17.50/share and amounted to about 20% of the Ocean Rig’s value. Dryships also plans to buy back up to $25 million of the Ocean Rig shares it just placed. On January 19th, Diana Containerships is expected to begin trading on the NASDAQ under the symbol ‘DCIX’.

Both Diana Shipping and Dryships are seeking a path out of the doldrums of dry bulk shipping, their main business. Dry bulk shipping rates have been soft all year, due primarily to an over-supply of ships. The Baltic Dry Index reached a 52-week low of around 1,700 in July, recovered to about 3,000 in September, and has fallen to below 1,900 again. For comparison, in May 2008, the Baltic Dry Index set an all-time high over 11,000. By December of that year, the index posted a low of 660.

In late November, analysts at Goldman Sachs said that the size of the dry bulk fleet would increase by 11% in 2011, while demand would increase by just 8.4%, according to report by Bloomberg. Dryships and Genco Shipping and Trading Ltd. (NYSE: GNK) were rated as ‘neutral’, and Diana Shipping was rated as a ‘buy’.

Diana Shipping and Dryships appeart to be following the same basic strategy — follow the money. And the money is in deepwater drilling and container shipping. Dryships already has two drilling ships at work and four more on order. Diana Shipping is raising capital for Diana Containerships without resorting to borrowing and further reducing Shipping’s exposure to the uncertainties of the container shipping markets.

In a separate deal, the Seattle-based shipping maintenance and repair outfit called Todd Shipyards Corp. (NYSE: TOD) has agreed to be acquired in a $130 million buyout valued at some $22.27 per share by Vigor Industrial LLC.

Dryships’ shares and Diana Shipping’s shares have so far hardly seen much action on the news.  Todd’s shares are up only about 7% at $22.45 after having been above $23.00 at the open.

Paul Ausick

Maersk Brokers have said that new dry carriers totalling 34.8 million deadweight tons, dwt, were delivered in the first half of 2010. Another 55 million dwt are on tap to be delivered by the end of the year. Maersk forecasts that 117 million dwt will be delivered in 2011.

The increase in tonnage increases competition for cargoes, and is almost certainly the cause for the dramatic drop in the BDI. Further evidence of the effect on new vessels is a report that three capesize ships, the largest in the dry bulk fleet, have been anchored in Singapore. When a large vessel is, essentially, mothballed, that means that shipping rates have fallen so far that it is no longer practical to keep a ship afloat. Capesize vessels are now being booked at $15,000/day, a price equal to the handysize carriers which displace less than 20% of capesize tonnage.

For a time, the falling BDI was thought to be connected to lower demand for commodities like iron ore. But iron ore shipments are currently stronger than ever. Seasonal demand from grain shippers helped hide the effects of the growing fleet size, which are just now becoming evident.

In a related development, demand for very large crude carriers, VLCCs, has also fallen. Day rates are down from $70,000/day to $10,000/day. VLCCs are capable of carrying up to 2 million barrels of crude, and as many as 74 ships were being used as floating storage for crude oil while the cargo owners wait for the price of crude to rise. Iran has recently released six VLCCs, with about 12 million barrels of oil, and sent the carriers to Europe.

New VLCCs are also being added a high rate, with 55-50 new tankers expected to be delivered by year-end. These deliveries are being offset somewhat as some 40 single-hulled tankers are removed from service.

The down market for VLCCs is expected to last through the rest of 2010.

DryShips and Genco are down about 30% since the beginning of the year, while Diana is off about 10%, although all are up slightly more than 1% in today’s trading.

The good news is that the collapse in the BDI probably does not indicate that the global economy is headed for the dreaded double dip. The not-so-good news is that the shipping companies are going to need an even bigger uptick in shipping than they’ve already gotten in order to soak up all the dry bulk capacity that’s coming.

Paul Ausick