Posts for Ticker ‘DTV’

Soros Fund Holdings

Yesterday Soros Fund Management Filed a 13-F outlining the fund’s long portfolio as of September 30th, 2009.  The total value of the holdings reported in the filing is $6,198,089.  Twenty holdings represented roughly 50% of the value.  Soros Fund Management is a hedge fund management company that invests primarily based on macroeconomic analysis.  It should be noted that the fund’s equity portfolio likely contains significant short positions, which are not reported in 13-F filings.  Some of the positions in the filing may be in place as hedges or part of a multi-part trade, rather than a directional bet.  With that in mind, a glance at this firm’s major holdings provides clues to its macroeconomic outlook.  

Total stakes in Petroleo Brasileo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR) represent 9.23% of the value of the positions reported in the filing, with just over 13 million shares held.  This is down from by 2.3 million from the fund’s last filing. Read More »

Posted on: November 17, 2009 – 10:52 am in Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Sirius XM (SIRI) And CBS (CBS) Pose Greatest Financial Risk Among Media Firms

TVCBS (NYSE:CBS) and Sirius XM (NYSE:SIRI) pose the greatest investment risks among media companies based on a forensic measure of their transparency and the statistical reliability of their financial reporting and governance practices, according to new data from Audit Integrity. The probability for bankruptcy for Sirius is 8.5% and 4.6% for CBS. Both numbers are remarkably low, but still high for major US companies. Audit Integrity’s bankruptcy model achieved 90.9% accuracy in 2008 and 93.8% in 2009.

The safest companies for investors, based on the same measurement are Disney (NYSE:DIS) and  DirecTV (NYSE:DTV). The rest of the firms in the analysis are Time Warner (NYSE:TWX), Viacom (NYSE:VIA), Comcast (NYSE:CMCSA), Cablevision, (NYSE:CVC), GE (NYSE:GE), and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC). Read More »

Posted on: November 12, 2009 – 9:23 pm in Accounting, Media, Old Media, , , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 9/7/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters:   Markets in Asia and Europe were mostly higher with many up over 1%. Cadbury rose on an offer from Kraft (KFT). Rio Tinto (RTP) rose.

Reuters:   Kraft (KFT) bid $16.7 billion for Cadbury.

Reuters:   China Trust bid $2.4 billion for AIG’s (AIG) Taiwasn unit. Read More »

Posted on: September 7, 2009 – 6:58 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 6/17/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters: The US faces a long period of economic stagnation.

Reuters:   Obama will release plans for a financial market overhaul.

Reuters:   The White House will not help California fix its deficit.

Reuters:   Large US company bankruptcies are accelerating.

Retuers:   News Corp’s (NWS) MySpace fired 30% of its staff. Read More »

Posted on: June 17, 2009 – 3:08 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

DIRECTV & Liberty Media: Complicating An Enigma (DTV, LINTA, LINTB, LMDIA, LMDIB, LCAPA, LCAPB)

DIRECTV Group, Inc. (NYSE: DTV) has announced that it is going to combine with Liberty Entertainment, Inc., and then the company will be split off from Liberty Media.  This supposedly puts the control of DIRECTV in the hands of the shareholders.  While Liberty’s structure was complicated before, this “simpler” structure is one which may also leave shareholders scratching their heads.
Read More »

Posted on: May 4, 2009 – 7:48 am in Entertainment, Media, Mergers and Buy Outs, Satellite, , , , , , ,

Can.. Or Will John Malone Save SIRIUS? (SIRI, SATS, LINTA, DTV)

"Somebody, Help Me!!! Please!!!"

"Somebody, Help Me!!! Please!!!"

If you thought that the SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) situation couldn’t get more complex, it could. It has.  Reports of it getting ready for bankruptcy, and then getting a controlling debt investment from EchoStar Corp. (NASDAQ: SATS) and Charles Ergen only made matters worse.  And now this morning comes reports that SIRIUS XM is in talks with Liberty Media Interactive (NASDAQ: LINTA).
Read More »

Posted on: February 12, 2009 – 9:39 am in Entertainment, Media, Mergers and Buy Outs, Rumors, Satellite, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 2/11/1009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaper2According to Reuters, Congress and The White House are working on the final stimulus package.

Reuters reports that Wall St CEOs will defend their use of bailout money before Congress.

Reuters reports that the US has put together a $2 trillion financial stimulus package. Read More »

Posted on: February 11, 2009 – 3:59 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 8/5/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTImes, FT, Bloomberg

NewspaperAccording to Reuters, large Yahoo! (YHOO) holder Capital Research want to know whether vote counts from the company’s annula meeting were accurate.

Reuters writes that the Fed is seen as holding rates steady.

Reuters writes that after damaging their reputations, credit ratings agencies are seeking redemption.

Read More »

Posted on: August 5, 2008 – 2:40 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , ,

Does Comcast (CMCSA) Deserve The Benefit Of The Doubt?

Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is a company that Wall Street just loves to hate. Much of the antipathy directed toward the Philadelphia-based cable giant seems justified since it faces a myriad of competitors and is vulnerable to getting hurt by the slowing economy.

Read More »

Posted on: July 30, 2008 – 10:31 am in Uncategorized, , ,

Media Digest 5/8/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

According to Reuters, the head of strategy at Microsoft (MSFT) says it deal to acquire Yahoo! (YHOO) is over.

Reuters writes that Toyota (TM) posted a 28% drop in profit due to a strong yen and slow sales in the US.

Reuters writes that News Corp (NWS) sees economy hurting advertising.

Reuters writes that Sprint (S), Clearwire (CLWR), and several cable companies have created a venture to build a national wireless broadband network.

Reuters writes that News Corp (NWS) says it is not in deal talks with Yahoo!, Microsoft, or AOL.

The Walll Street Journal writes that the head economist in the White House sees no recession.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the president of Moody’s has resigned.

The Wall Street Journal says DirecTV (DTV) plans to raise $2.5 bilion for a stock buy-back.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Microsoft looked at buying Facebook.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Intel (INTC) still faces problems in getting WiMax accepted as a global broadband standard.

The Wall Street Journal writes that AMD (AMD) wlll come out with a new, more powerful line of chips.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the Chinese may take a stake in BHP Billiton (BHP) which could block its buy-out of Rio Tinto (RTP).

The Wall Street Journal writes that George Soros says the market will test its lows again.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the SEC will force brokerages to disclose their funding levels so that investor can get a better picture of how they are doing.

The Wall Street Journal writes that unlocked Apple (AAPL) iPhone are hurting some suppliers and carriers but are helping Apple earnings.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Merrill Lynch (MER) thinks the auction rate securites market will open up enough so investors will be able to get their cash out within a year.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the Take-Two (TTWO) video game "Grand Theft Auto IV" brought in $500 million during its first week of sales.

The New York Times writes that Blackrock (BLK) is managing $30 billion in Bear Stearns (BSC) funds. If they fall in value, the Fed will be stuck with the bill.

The New York Times writes that Delta (DAL) and Northwest (NWA) defended their merger in front of Congress.

The FT writes that the US and EU are united in trying to strengthen the dollar.

The FT writes that productivity rose more than expected.

The FT writes that MySpace will reach the ambitious revenue targets set for it by parent News Corp.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: May 8, 2008 – 3:04 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ANF, ATI, BCS, DTV, LVLT, MFB, RFMD, QLTI, TTWO, TRLG)

These are ten of the top calls we are seeing that could impact shares early this Thursday morning:

  • Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) started as Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.
  • Allegheny Tech (NYSE: ATI) Cut to Neutral From Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Barclays (NYSE: BCS) cut to Neutral at Collins Stewart.
  • DIRECTV (NYSE: DTV) downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein.
  • Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) raised to Neutral from Sell at Merriman Curhan Ford.
  • Maidenform Brands (NYSE: MFB) Cut to Sell from Neutral at UBS.
  • RF Micro Device (NASDAQ: RFMD) raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • QLTI Inc. (NASDAQ: QLTI) raised to Outperform at RBC Capital.
  • Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) cut to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.
  • True Religion Apparel (NASDAQ: TRLG) Raised to Outperform at Morgan Keegan.

Jon C. Ogg
April 24, 2008

Posted on: April 24, 2008 – 6:15 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Who Will Buy Sirius (SIRI): If It Has To Be Sold?

Once The Justice Department cleared the merger of Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) with XM Satellite (NASDAQ: XMSR) and there was some anticipation that the deal would get done the shares of both companies should have gone up. A year ago, the combination was viewed as a dream deal.

If anything, the shares dropped. Sirius is below $3 and XM is below $13. The market began to realize that the year which was wasted on getting government approval was a year the companies need to stay competitive. XM has over $1 billion in debt. Refinancing it in the current market would be nearly impossible. Selling shares would lead to extremely large dilution.  As we recently noted, Goldman Sachs even put Sirius on its "Conviction Sell List" with a price target of $2.25.

Growth at Sirius has slowed considerably. In the fourth quarter revenue rose only 29% to $250 million. But, for the full year, revenue was up 45%. Subscriber deactivations in the fourth quarter were almost 540,000 compared to 330,000 in the same quarter of 2006. The firm’s net loss was $166 million. Long-term debt was almost $1.3 billion.

The market is also concerned that combining the two companies may not lead to big cost savings, at least not initially. Sirius and XM run on separate satellite platforms. As The Wall Street Journal points out "The companies’ combined 17 million subscribers have radios that aren’t interoperable. Radios that can receive signals from both companies likely wouldn’t be available for at least a year after the merger – and a year or two after that for customers who get satellite radios via new car purchases."

Sirius and XM also face competition which did not exist when they were started. Near the top of that list are HD radio, the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone, and a host of cellphones that download and play music.

If the new company does run into debt service problems and needs to find a buyer, the cost of the common shares is likely to be over $4 billion, unless the situation gets extremely bad. The debt of the two operations taken together is well over $2.2 billion.

The most appropriate buyer for the satellite radio company would be Clear Channel (NYSE: CCU) which has over 700 radio stations.  The odds that regulators would allow a de facto monopoly in the radio business puts the chances of this at is close to zero.

Since the car companies are the major conduit for satellite radio sales one of them might buy the firm to keep it operating. With market caps of under $15 billion, GM (GM) and Ford (F) are not candidates. With a $161 billion market cap, Toyota (TM) could swing a deal. But,the US car companies might raise a stink about their largest competitor providing the service. It is just the kind of thing that Congress likes to hold hearings over.

There is a theory, a weak one, that one of the telecom companies, probably Verizon (NYSE: VZ) or AT&T (NYSE: T) would want to own a satellite radio company to offer another service to bundle with cellular, broadband, TV, and landlines. The larges cable companies, Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) would have a similar incentive. Sirius and XM should have over 20 million subscribers by the end of this year. But, the analysis of how many of those customers could be "cross sold" bundled services probably would not justify the cost of an acquisition.

In the end, that leaves the satellite TV firms, Dish Network (NASDAQ: DISH) and DirecTV (NYSE: DTV). DirecTV has the larger market cap at $29 billion. That makes it a more likely buyer. The company has 17 million customers and 1,800 digital audio and video channels. DirectTV had $617 million in operating income in the fourth quarter of last year. John Malone’s Liberty Media Corp owns 470 million share of DTV. That would make Malone the key to any decision. DirecTV knows that programming and technical aspects of satellite-delivered content as well as any company.

There may be no logical home for Sirius, and that may be why the shares trade so low.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Some of these names have been discussed on our open email distribution list as well as been under review for our "Stocks Under $10" weekly newsletter.

Posted on: April 2, 2008 – 9:41 am in Satellite, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

DirecTV (DTV): New Threat To Cable And Telecoms

DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) has hundreds of channels and can offer high-definition programming, but, because satellite signals do not work two-way, getting into the "on demand" business has been impossible. That has given an edge to cable firms like Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and telecom companies like Verizon (NYSE: VZ) with fiber-based TV.

The business landscape for "on demand" TV is about to change. DirecTV has a new product that downloads popular movies to a set-top box where they sit on the storage drive until a consumer wants to access them. Other films will be streamed to the box over broadband from DTV servers. It is an inelegant system, but it works.

According to The Wall Street Journal "More than just offering video on demand, this arrangement will let DirecTV tap what some analysts think could be a big growth area for TV providers — selling highly targeted ads."

"On demand" TV and the ability to target customers with marketing has belonged to the cable companies. Fiber-TV is very new and Verizon and AT&T (NYSE: T) are just getting their systems up. As these come online to challenge cable, stocks in the industry, especially Comcast, Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC), Cablevision (NYSE: CVC), and Charter (NASDAQ: CHTR), have taken a beating.

Now cable has not one "on demand" competitor, but two.

For cable shareholders, that is two too many.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: March 13, 2008 – 5:27 am in Satellite, , , , , ,

Media Digest 3/13/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Barron’s

According to Reuters, Paulson will try to tighten rules at the state and federal levels to tighten mortgage standards.

Reuters writes that Carlyle Capital was unable to reach a deal with it lenders, setting up a liquidation.

Reuters writes that Toyota (TM) expects North America demand to be unchanged this year.

Reuters reports that Electronic Arts (ERTS) plans to make a tender offer for Take-Two (TTWO) shares.

Reuters writes that Google (GOOG) will announce a new service for ad publishers which could pull in additional revenue for their partners.

Reuters writes that the CEO of JP Morgan (JPM) says that the US is likely to be in recession.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Southwest (LUV) has grounded dozens of planes

The Wall Street Journal reports that Chicago Mercantile Exchange parent CME Group may announce a definitive plan as early as next week to buy energy-exchange operator Nymex Holdings.

The Wall Street Journal reports that DirecTV (DTV) will begin an "on demand" service.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Delphi’s plans to exit Chapter 11 are in disarray.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Target (TGT) is in talks to sell part of its credit card business.

The New York Times reports that internet use could outrun capacity by 2011.

The FT writes that oil moved above $110 as the dollar fell.

Bloomberg writes that the Fed’s attempts to cut rates quicky could hurt inflation goals for the US.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: March 13, 2008 – 3:08 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , ,

Rep Gene Green Talks About Sirius (SIRI) Merger: No Issue If One Goes Out Of Business

24/7 Wall St. spoke to Rep Gene Green of Texas. He is Congress’s most vocal opponent of the Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) merger with XM Satellite (NASDAQ: XMSR). He has been vilified by none other than Jim Cramer for working against the deal by suggesting strongly to the FCC that putting the two companies together would be wrong.

In our interview with Green he likened a merger of XM and Sirius to the DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) combination with Echostar (NASDAQ: DISH) which the FCC killed because it would represent a monopoly.

We asked Green whether he was concerned that one of the satellite radio companies might fail. Both have heavy debt and significant operating losses. Green did not appear to think that the financial problems of the companies had any bearing on the issue. He suggested that if one company fails, the FCC should auction off its spectrum to another company that might want into the business.

Green views the debt that Sirius and XM have built up as the cost of getting into the business. That may be his reason for any lack of sympathy about where the companies find themselves financially.

Green also thinks that one of the most interesting proposals being debated to move the merger along would be for the two companies to give up half of their spectrum once a business competition is complete. That would allow that FCC to conduct another auction, and, presumably, create yet another satellite radio company in the market.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: March 4, 2008 – 12:23 pm in Interview, Mergers and Buy Outs, Satellite, , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AU, CEPH, KO, CXR, MCO, NVO, URBN, WAG, CVC, CMCSA, TWC, DISH, DTV)

Below are some of the key general calls we are looking at in early pre-market trading:

  • Anglogold (NYSE: AU) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
  • Cephalon (NASDAQ: CEPH) downgraded to Underperform at Morgan Stanley.
  • Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.
  • Cox Radio (NYSE: CXR) downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  • Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) raised to Outperform at Bernstein.
  • Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) raised to Peer Perform a Bear Stearns.
  • Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

Cable & Satellite Initiations: UBS has initiated cable and satellite companies. Cablevision (NYSE: CVC), Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA), and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) were all started as neutral at UBS.  DIRECTV (NYSE: DTV) was initiated as Buy and DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH) was initiated with a Neutral rating.

Jon C. Ogg
February 8, 2008

Posted on: February 8, 2008 – 7:31 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (A, BBBY, BBY, DTV, ECL, EP, IBM, NTAP, LRCX, MOT, CRM)

These are not the only impact analyst calls affecting stocks this morning, but these are the ones that 247WallSt.com is focusing on:

  • Agilent (A) raised to Buy at Banc of America.
  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) raised to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • Best Buy (BBY) downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Bear Stearns.
  • DIRECTV (DTV) raised to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Lehman.
  • Ecolab (ECL) raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  • El Paso (EP) raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.
  • IBM (IBM) and Network Appliance (NTAP) both downgraded to Neutral at UBS; shares indicated down 0.5%.
  • Lam Research (LRCX) raised to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Lehman.
  • Motorola (MOT) downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets.
  • Salesforce.com (CRM) raised to Buy at UBS; but CRM downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs; shares indicated down almost 3%.

Jon C. Ogg
January 7, 2008

Posted on: January 7, 2008 – 7:57 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , ,

EchoStar (DISH) Falls Over 7% After Hours

A number of rumors about an AT&T (T) buy-out of satellite TV provider Echostar (DISH) took the stock up 19% today to $47.49.

But, it may all have been too good to be true. DISH fell 7% after hours. Perhaps Wall St. figured out that AT&T can have a partnership with EchoStar with without owning it, or that the phone company’s fiber-to-the-home business will eventually compete with EchoStar and DirecTV (DTV).

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: November 19, 2007 – 4:48 pm in Mergers and Buy Outs, , ,

EchoStar Feels The Subprime (and FTTH) Pressures Too (DISH, T, DTV)

This morning’s post-earnings downgrade of EchoStar Communications Corp. (NASDAQ:DISH) from a "Buy" to a "Hold" at Citigroup, is having a much broader impact than it originally seemed.  Shares were not indicated this much lower at 7:15 AM EST, but shares are now down almost 13% at $42.28 in mid-morning trading.

It seems that the subprime mortgage mess is increasing the churn rates in the customer base, at least that is what the company indicated on Friday with its earnings filing.   If AT&T (NYSE:T) is really looking to acquire the satellite television operations, it sure looks like the price of playing poker just got a lot cheaper.  What will this mean to Echostar’s review for a restructuring?  The woes at cable companies and the fiber-to-the-home initiatives from the Bells has created a perfect storm where maybe they all lose, at least on pricing power and on margins from the old triple-play packages.

For some reason, DirecTV (NYSE:DTV) is not down as much with only a 3% drop.  That doesn’t make much sense, although a 13% drop at EchoStar seems exaggerated as well if it is really a potential buyout candidate.  This drop won’t assure that EchoStar gets covered in the Special Situation Investing Newsletter from 24/7 Wall St., but it is definitely worth a more in-depth review on this pullback.

EchoStar’s 52-week trading range is $35.16 to $52.54.

Jon C. Ogg
November 12, 2007

Posted on: November 12, 2007 – 10:58 am in Cable Companies, Satellite, Telecom, , ,

The Death Of Cable (CMCSA)(TWC)(CHTR)

The largest cable company in the US, Comcast (CMCSA), hit $30.18 last January. Mark that down. The shares may well never get that high again. Time Warner Cable (TWC) hit $44 in January. It is the last times it will see that price. Charter (CHTR) hit $4.93 in July. The company could be bankrupt next year.

Shares in Comcast and Time Warner Cable are down well over 20% in the last three months. Charter is down closer to 60%. The stocks in their biggest competitors, the big telecom firms AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) are flat over that period. Shares in the two satellite TV companies, DirecTV (DTV) and Echostar (DISH) are up over 20%.

Cable was on top of the world coming into 2007. Wall St. assumed that it had a multi-year lead over telecom companies for providing voice, broadband, and TV to American homes. The large cable companies had pricing leverage with many channels that provided programming. If video content firms wanted carriage to the home, they had to talk with the cable guys.

But, there is early evidence that the fiber-to-the-home initiatives from the telecom companies are stealing customers from cable. The satellite TV companies offer more high definition channels, which has become attractive to many consumers.

It turns out that cables biggest enemy is not the competition. It is the industry’s own size and the fact that Washington has grown to view that size as something akin to a monopoly.

The FCC recently approved "a rule that would ban exclusive agreements that cable television operators have with apartment building," according to MSNBC. That gives the telecom companies a shot at about 25 million homes that "belonged" to cable.

That is not the worst of it  According to The New York Times "the FCC is preparing to impose significant new regulations to open the cable television market to independent programmers and rival video services after determining that cable companies have become too dominant in the industry, senior commission officials said." Part of the new rules that the commission may force on the cable companies would make them offer small content channels more access to channels that reach tens of millions of homes.

And, the government may put a cap on any more acquisitions of new cable systems by Comcast and perhaps some of the industry’s other large firms.

All of this adds up to one ugly sum. Cable now has competition from a a very well-funded source in the telecom operators. And, the FCC is opening up what was once a closed system which kept cable with high cash flow and little competition.

The multi-year-high stock prices that cable companies hit earlier this year were a peak.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Get a free trial subscription to the 24/7 Wall St. "New Media" newsletter and follow our stock opinions on companies from Comcast to Verizon and Google to Gannett.

Posted on: November 11, 2007 – 2:29 pm in Cable Companies, , , , , , ,