At issue may be a stock market stabilization, or perhaps it is a stabilization aimed solely at the commodities and those companies which profit from either the rise of commodity prices or the rise of the demand for those commodities. It was just yesterday evening that Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter was talking up gold miners as his method of choice to play the current bounce in gold.

To show just how much implied upside there is we found some large cap gold stocks that have upside of about 100% and many of the big players have implied upside of well over 50%.  The key ETFs for these miners show just how widespread the damage was during the last sell-off.  The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) trades at $43.35 against a 52-week trading range of $39.08 to $66.98 and that is down about 35% as a group from the highs.  The Global X Silver Miners ETF (AMEX: SIL) trades at $18.00 against a 52-week range of $16.54 to $29.05 and that is down almost 38% from its high in the last year.

We included the implied dividend yields but due to foreign issues and ADRs causing currency translations and due to some payouts not being quarter like U.S. companies do, we would urge you to only consider the dividend as a footnote and something you should be verifying on your own.  Besides that, who buys gold (and silver) miners because of their dividend yields only?

We have evaluated the following large-cap gold stocks: Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX); Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG); Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM); AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU); Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC); Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM); Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE: GFI); Yamana Gold, Inc. (NYSE: AUY); IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE: IAG); Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMY); Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO); and Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD). We have covered also two of the larger silver players of Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW) and Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS).

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) traded at $37.60 and has a market value of $37.6 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $59.10 and the 52-week range is $34.82 to $55.95.  Barrick has a dividend yield of 2.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target: 57% but we would note that the target is above the 52-week high.

Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) traded at $34.90 with a market value of $28.2 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $60.42 and the 52-week trading range is $32.16 to $56.31.  Goldcorp’s most recent yield was listed as 1.6%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 73% but we would note that the consensus target is still above the 52-week high.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 181 points to 12,986.43 (1.41%), the NASDAQ rose more than 39 points (1.3%) to 3,055.55, and the S&P 500 rose 1.38% or nearly 19 points to 1,387.57.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) raised to ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) started as ‘neutral’ at SunTrust Robinson Humphreys; Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) cut to ‘hold’ at SocGen; Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) started as ‘buy’ at SunTrust Robinson Humphreys; and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) reiterated as ‘buy’ and target price raised to $480 at Argus.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Fastenal Corp. (NASDAQ: FAST) is down -1.8% at $48.73; Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD) is up 0.03% at $1.71; Mission West Properties Inc. (NASDAQ: MSW) is down -0.06% at $9.55; and Commerce Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: CBSH) is up 2.2% at $40.00. After the markets close today we will hear from Google (earnings preview here), J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT), and Cherokee Inc. (NASDAQ: CHKE) among others. Before the markets open tomorrow morning we get earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) (more coverage here).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Oaktree Capital Group LLC (NYSE: OAK) is down about -1.3% at $42.43. The investment management firm held its IPO today. More coverage here.

MIPS Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: MIPS) is up about 27.5% at $6.64. The chip maker is reportedly seeking a buyer. More coverage here.

Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO) is up about 12.5% at $14.45. The junior gold miner announced plans to double production in five years.

Avid Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: AVID) is down more than -17% at $8.51. The media tools company announced that it would have an operating loss in the first quarter.

Stay tuned for Friday. New York Fed President William Dudley and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke are giving speeches. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Consumer price index
• 8:55 a.m. – University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index

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The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 90 points to 12,806.15 (0.71%), the NASDAQ rose more than 25 points (0.84%) to 3,016.46, and the S&P 500 rose 0.75% or more than 10 points to 1,368.79.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including J.C. Penney & Co. (NYSE: JCP) started as ‘neutral’ at UBS; American Superconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: AMSC) started as ‘buy’ at Maxim Group; Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO) raised to ‘buy’ at Canaccord Genuity; Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) started as ‘outperform’ at RBC; and Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) started as ‘neutral’ at UBS.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Alcoa is up 6.2% at $9.90; Health Care Services Group Inc. (NASDAQ: HCSG) is up 7.2% at $21.47; Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) is down -0.6% at $22.61; and Adtran Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN) is up 7.5% at $30.61. After the markets close today we will hear from Mission West Properties Inc. (NASDAQ: MSW) among others. Before the markets open tomorrow morning we get earnings from Fastenal Corp. (NASDAQ: FAST) and Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Mattress Firm Holding Co. (NASDAQ: MFRM) is up more than 17% at $43.89 after posting a new 52-week high of $45.42 earlier today. The retailing company posted good earnings and announced an acquisition. More coverage here.

Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN) is up more than 17% at $32.20 after posting a new 52-week high of $33.35. The farm machinery company shattered earnings expectations.

Cal Div International Inc. (NYSE: DVR) is up more than 13% at 3.71. The offshore oil field services firm has announced that it will be a 40% partner in the Cape Wind project offshore of Massachusetts.

Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) is down more than -16% at $4.21, a new 52-week low. The cell phone maker warned on earnings this morning and is fixing a glitch in its new Lumia 900 phone. Even more coverage here.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. New York Fed President William Dudley, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, Minneapolis Fed President Naryana Kocherlakota, and Federal Reserve governor Sarah Bloom Raskin are all giving speeches. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – International trade statistics
• 8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
• 8:30 a.m. – Producer price index
• 10.30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
• 1:00 p.m. – 30-year bond auction
• 4:30 p.m. – Fed balance sheet and money supply

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American Superconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: AMSC) Started as Buy at Maxim Group.

Cepheid, Inc. (NASDAQ: CPHD) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Eldorado Gold Corporation (NYSE: EGO) Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity.

GameStop Corporation (NYSE: GME) Cut to Hold at Needham.

Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ: HBAN) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE: JCP) Started as Neutral at UBS.

Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M) Started as Neutral at UBS.

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Started as Outperform at RBC.

Polycom Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCM) Cut estimates but maintained Buy at Argus.

SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) Cut to Hold at ThinkEquity.

SuperValu Inc. (NYSE: SVU) maintained Neutral but cut target to $6 at Credit Suisse.

United Continental (NYSE: UAL) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Yelp Inc. (NYSE: YELP) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Started as Neutral at Citigroup; Started as Perform at Oppenheimer; Started as Hold at Jefferies.

If you enjoyed the top analyst upgrades and downgrades, you can join our free email newsletter that includes analyst summaries each morning sent right to your inbox.  We also cover top issues such as IPOs, special financial exclusives, mergers and more. Sign up in the box below.

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Now we’ll check in with our own list of five great gold stocks. Winmill’s list included miners Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO), Avocent Mining plc (OTC: AVVGF), and Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (AMEX: NAK). He also mentioned Rio Tinto plc (NYSE: RIO) and the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD). We’re going to add a couple of others: Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM), Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC), AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU), and Peruvian miner Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (NYSE: BVN). We’ll also look at popular ETFs iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), and Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ).

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (AMEX: NAK), as Winmill noted, is not yet earning revenues, but this is one of his long-term plays, with large-scale production not scheduled to begin until 2016 or later. For those of us who don’t even buy green bananas, we’ll take a pass on this one. Friday’s closing price of $12.57 compares to a 52-week trading range of $6.00 to $21.76 and compares to a Thomson Reuters consensus analyst median price target of $38.94.

Avocet Mining plc (OTC: AVVGF) boasts a trailing P/E ratio of 25.7, and according to Winmill, the company’s focus on West Africa is not correctly valued in the market. On its home exchange in London (AVM), Avocet posts a trailing P/E of 38.64 on a market cap of around $640 million. This could be a bargain, but again, it’s likely to take some time. In London, AVM closed Monday at $45.50 in a 52-week range of $38.66-$52.86.

Rio Tinto plc (NYSE: RIO) is the largest company, by market cap, in this list. It’s valued at about $136 billion. It’s trailing P/E is 9.33 and its forward P/E is just 7.46. It owns a piece of Northern Dynasty’s biggest project and mines just about any mineral that’s worth anything to someone. But the company’s $10 billion in cash at the end of 2010 and more than $56 billion in property, plant, and equipment make it a force to be reckoned with. It’s forward dividend yield is 1.8%, not much, but the highest of any of the miners we’re looking at here. Shares closed Friday at $69.59 in a 52-week range of $39.30-$76.67, and the median price target is $94.93.

Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) posts a trailing P/E ratio of 12.6 and a forward P/E of 12.37. Newmont just raised its quarterly dividend to $0.20/share, which yields 1.4%. Analysts expect growth here, with a median price target of $73/share, about 20% higher than Friday’s closing price of $56.39. Newmont’s got to watch its cash costs, though, which are among the industry’s highest. Shares closed Friday at $56.39, within a 52-week range of $50.05-$65.50, and the median price target is $73.00.

Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC) posts a trailing P/E ratio of 18.02 and a forward P/E of 16.61. It’s dividend yield is a paltry 0.6%. Kinross shares trade at a discount to other large miners, but at least one analyst believes that 2011 could close that gap as the company closes in on projects in Ecuador. Shares closed at $16.11 on Friday, within a 52-week range of $13.84-$19.90, with a median price target of $22.50.

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) posts a trailing P/E of 104.12 and a forward P/E of 9.72. The huge difference could be due to a very profitable first quarter and the end of Anglogold’s forward sales. The company no longer has any hedges and will sell all its production at spot rates. That will keep shares higher this year, but the effect will diminish going forward. Shares closed on Friday at $45.50, within a 52-week range of $38.55-$52.86, with a median price target of $64.40.

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (NYSE: BVN), like Newmont, pays a nice forward dividend yield of 1.4%. Its trailing P/E is 15.53, and its forward P/E is 11.55. The company increased its silver production in the first quarter by about a third over a year ago and BVN more than tripled its copper production. Diverse assets, like Rio, only much smaller. BVN closed at $44.34 on Friday, within a 52-week range of $34.91-$57.50, and the median price target is $53.00.

The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is the largest holding in John Paulson’s hedge fund, at 13.51% of the portfolio’s value. Because the trust holds only bullion, it avoids all the dangers involved with mining. Same for the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU). SPDR Gold Trust closed at $149.70 on Friday, within a 52-week range of $113.08-$153.61. iShares Gold Trust closed at $15.01 on Friday, within a 52-week range of $11.32-$15.39.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) spread the risk around the various miners. Newmont is one of the three largest holdings in GDX, and along with Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) and Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG), make up more than a third of GDX’s holdings. The Gold Miners ETF closed at $57.92 on Friday, within a 52-week range of $46.80-$64.62. The Junior Gold Miners ETF closed at $37.44 on Friday, within a 52-week range of $24.25-$44.86.

So, skipping the two long-term plays, the best performer over the past 12 months has been Rio Tinto (up about 50%), followed by SPDR Gold Shares (up about 25%. Buenaventura finished up about 23% and AngloGold is up nearly 10%. Newmont is up about 5%. These five look good going forward.

Paul Ausick

We have gone through many analyst research reports to find ”the top analyst calls of the week.”  Of all of the calls we followed we came up with seven top research features from this last week that we wanted to keep in mind going forward.  Those top analyst calls calls were in shares of Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD), Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO), HCA Inc. (NYSE: HCA), LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD), Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM), Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (NYSE: QIHU), and Zale Corporation (NYSE: ZLC).

This week has mostly a bullish-call bias, but that is rarely the case as we usually have a mix of upgrades and downgrades that stood out throughout the week.  We often see some great research that flags more caution than ambition.  Included in each call is the price action and the implied target goals, along with color if applicable.

Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD) has failed to yield much of the upside we forecast that it could see when we called it one which could double over the next 12 to 24 months back in 2010.  This week came a sector upgrade for the most part in networking out of Janney Capital Markets’ Bill Choi where Brocade went from “Hold” to “Buy” with an $8.00 price target.  What was impressive about this call was that it was going into earnings and that can be a very dangerous time to recommend Brocade due to its volatile nature around earnings and guidance.

In short, it was a very gutsy call to upgrade Brocade even if it was part of a sector call.  Brocade closed up 6.5% at $6.67 on Friday and the 52-week range is $4.64 to $6.88.  Getting near the $11.00 per our old double is probably an opportunity that has passed Brocade by even if the stock is higher, but the $8.00 target from bill Choi of Janney Capital Markets compares to a consensus target from Thomson Reuters of $7.31.  Choi cited new products that can help it beat Cisco and on the belief that much negative news is already price into the stock.

Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO) is one with the double-double as two different outfits touted this battered gold stock during the week.  A firm in Quebec called Desjardins upgraded this one to “Buy” from “Hold” this week. The move was up over 3% combined after the call and that si how much it closed up this last week.  Another portfolio fund manager named Tom Winmill at Midas Fund (a gold fund) also gave us a very positive outlook for this low-cost gold producer in our exclusive interview on Friday where he discussed $1,700 gold with Eldorado among several of his top picks mentioned.  After we took a look, most analysts feel that Eldorado IS gold because there is an implied 50% upside in the whole group of analysts as is.

HCA Inc. (NYSE: HCA) was an unusual catch among Whale Watching Week where all the billionaire and large portfolio manager holdings were released.  Reuters has an internal analyst group that looks for anomalies and other unusual data for ideas, although it is not always issuing Buy/Sell recommendations.  The catch is in a Reuters internal analyst audio-video where it was noted after the big Whale Watching that HCA was now a position held by eight of the thirty top hedge funds now that it has come public again in an IPO.  This was an unusual catch and the sub-$35 price today compares to a consensus price target of $39.61.  As it came public in March, chances are that the eight of thirty may actually be more as investors might have been slow to add the position since they only had three weeks to decide whether to add this position before the quarter-end.

This interview came at a very unique time.  It has been impossible to not notice that many key gold stocks have sold off much more than gold.  All you have to do is follow the move in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) with a loss of 15% or so in less than a month.  This was after the rapid cratering of silver seen in the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) with roughly a 30% fall in less than a month.  Tom Winmill did not focus on silver in our interview, but this rapid drop after an equally rapid rise has been an influencing event in many shares tracking precious metals.

Winmill sees this latest drop as a buying opportunity for a long-term thesis in many of the key miners, explorers and producers of gold.  He noted, “Equity investors are pricing in much lower gold prices and that doesn’t look to be the case.  The companies involved in gold are now trading at lower valuations and I am getting more excited about gold stocks here now that margin expansion is taking place.” Winmill is looking for a peak of around $1,700.00 per ounce in the coming months and he expects that the year-end price is likely to be around $1,600.00.  As far as a year average for 2011, he expects that the average daily price of gold in 2011 will be closer to 1,500.00 per ounce.

We always try to offer both sides of critical situations, so we could not ignore that the year-to-date performance of the fund has lagged the market.  So far, the drop for 2011 has been about 17.5%.  The difference is that Midas Fund is up more than 26% if you use a one-year performance now and that in turn implies that the return was significantly higher at the end of 2010.  Rather than just buying bullion or derivations of the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), the Midas Fund invests in shares of the miners, explorers, and producers and we already know how much those have been hit so far this year.  24/7 Wall St. even just gave a list of the most sold-off gold stocks of any size in 2011 this week and that will explain more of the severity of the drop.

The caveat to a rise in the price of gold is a rise in the real returns of short-term interest rates, according to Winmill.  The current climate of negative real returns after inflation is helping gold remain high.  With more and more currency being created, the move into hard assets is likely to remain.  We were also given the opportunity to discuss some key stock picks in the gold sector.  We saw the top ten holdings of the Midas Fund and we wanted to know which were among his favorites based upon the current share prices today.

Winmill first noted Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO), even if gold prices were to retreat as he noted it is one of the lowest-cost producers and has a great management team.  After looking at the current price of about $15.50, the 52-week range is $14.45 to $20.23.  Thomson Reuters even has a consensus price target of about $22.73, so even the consensus analyst group is expecting a move of nearly 50% here in Eldorado shares.

The Global X Pure Gold Miners ETF is a global fund and is not limited to US markets nor just to North America.  As of March 15, 2011, the Fund includes companies based in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Australia and Turkey.  As of March 10, 2011, the three largest components of the index were Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE: GFI), Polyus Gold, and Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC).  Other key holdings are AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU), Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO), Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMY) and others.  A full list of the global holdings inside this ETF is here.

Management Fee is listed as 0.59% and the custody fee is 0.00%, for an annual fund operating expense of 0.59%.

JON C. OGG

Advance Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD) Raised to Neutral at Macquarie.
Avago Technologies Limited (NASDAQ: AVGO) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.
Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO) Raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC.
Equifax, Inc. (NYSE: EFX) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Raised to Outperform at Macquarie.
Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein.
Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Staples Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS) Cut to Neutral at BofA-Merrill Lynch.

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JON C. OGG

Chico’s FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS) Started as Neutral at Janney Capital Markets (late Monday).
Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE: DUK) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank.
Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC) Raised To Outperform at National Bank.
National Bank of Greece SA (NYSE: NBG) Cut to Strong Sell at S&P Equity Research.
OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
OptionsXpress Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: OXPS) Cut to Underperform at Macquarie.
Pepco Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: POM) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Semtech Corp. (NASDAQ: SMTC) Reiterated Buy and $22.50 Target at Gleacher.
TradeStation Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TRAD) Raised to Outperform at Macquarie.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Started as Buy at Janney Capital Markets (late Monday).

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG