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Posts for Ticker ‘ESLR’

Short Seller Surprise, Alternative Energy Mixed Bag (CSIQ, CPST, CLNE, ENER, ESLR, FSLR, FCEL, SOLR, HOKU, JASO, SFUN, SPWRA, SPWRB)

With oil tanking, many alternative energy stocks and solar stocks have been paying for it. They were the leveraged winners when oil was running up and now they are paying the price on the way down. You will see some major increases in the short selling in some of the key stocks, but it is amazing just how mixed the bets are with some seeing real drops in the short interest. Maybe the notion is out that with suddenly super-low P/E ratios and with many off 75% or more that the worst is behind:

Stock (Ticker)                                     NOV. 28    NOV. 14 CHANGE
Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ)                2,427,370 3,368,857 -27.95%
Capstone Turbine Corp. (CPST)          17,560,127 18,493,021 -5.04%
Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)       3,410,178 3,278,222 +4.03%
Energy Conversion Devices (ENER)    12,318,601 11,092,675 +11.05%
Evergreen Solar, Inc. (ESLR)             24,902,180 25,732,337 -3.23%
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)                   9,307,012 7,074,475 +31.56%
FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL)                9,091,358 9,447,180 -3.77%
GT Solar International (SOLR)             2,614,025 2,092,142 +24.94%
Hoku Scientific, Inc. (HOKU)                2,040,200 2,442,894 -16.48%
JA Solar Holdings, Co. (JASO)          18,283,207 16,661,472 +9.73%
Solarfun Power Holdings Co. (SFUN)    5,003,987 5,249,784 -4.68%
SunPower Corp. (A) (SPWRA)          11,114,809 12,210,305 -8.97%
SunPower Corp. (B) (SPWRB)             3,230,046 1,990,460 +62.28%

Jon C. Ogg
December 10, 2008

Posted on: December 10, 2008 – 10:35 am in Alternative Energy, Short Interest, CLNE, CPST, CSIQ, ENER, ESLR, FCEL, FSLR, HOKU, JASO, SFUN, SOLR, SPWRA, SPWRB

Early Bird Analyst Downgrades (ASTI, KO, DT, ESLR, K, PEP, TSL)

These are some of the top early bird downgrades or negative calls we have seen from analysts on Wall Street this Tuesday morning:

Ascent Solar (ASTI) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Coca-Cola (KO) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Deutsche Telekom (DT) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Kellogg (K) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
PepsiCo (PEP) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Trina Solar (TSL) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Jon C. Ogg
November 18, 2008

Posted on: November 18, 2008 – 7:29 am in Analyst Calls, ASTI, DT, ESLR, K, KO, PEP, TSL

First Solar Saves The Solar Power Sector (FSLR, SPWRA, STP, LDK, CSIQ, SOLR, ESLR)

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) has finally given its guidance from the conference call, and it looks like this and additional supply contracts will be good news for the entire solar sector and may even spill over into other alternative energy stocks.

The company announced a 525 megawatt long-term module supply pact with Sorgenia Solar for solar power plants in Italy and extended pacts with existing customers allowing for an additional $800 million spread from 2009 to 2013.

First Solar shares were floating around the break-even mark in theafter-hours session before its guidance and before its supply pactannouncement. But now shares are up 10% at $127.50.Below is the rest of the data:

As you will see below, this is causing a major rally in almost all of the other solar power stocks:

Posted on: October 29, 2008 – 4:43 pm in Alternative Energy, Earnings, CSIQ, ESLR, FSLR, LDK, SOLR, SPWRA, STP

UBS Ditches Solar Stocks (ENER, ESLR, SOLR, SPWRA)

UBS is issuing a downgrade on many of the solar stocks this morning. While this call may be late, it does echo some of the issues brought up recently which signals that some of the solar orders could get cut ahead from utilities now that energy is suddenly cheaper and is deemed to stay cheaper for the time being.

Posted on: October 28, 2008 – 6:29 am in Alternative Energy, Analyst Calls, ENER, ESLR, SOLR, SPWRA

Solar Paradise Woes: Order Cuts, Sooner Than Expected (DUK, FSLR, SPWRA, STP, ESLR, LDK)

There has been quite a bit of data calling for a supply glut in 2009 with oversupply patterns existing in 2010 and beyond. This seems counterintuitive if you consider the trends toward alternative energy, but some fresh data on Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK) may signal more pain on the way for some of the major solar players.

Posted on: October 23, 2008 – 11:21 am in Alternative Energy, Utilities, DUK, ESLR, FSLR, LDK, SPWRA, STP

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (EYE, CRL, LLY, ESLR, INTC, SPWRA)

These are some of the top pre-market analyst downgrades we are seeing this Friday morning:

Advanced Medical Optics (EYE) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
Charles River (CRL) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.
Eli Lilly (LLY) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) Cut to Reduce at Calyon.
Intel (INTC) Cut to Sell from Buy at ThinkPanmure.
SunPower (SPWRA) Cut to Add at Calyon.

Jon C. Ogg
October 10, 2008

Posted on: October 10, 2008 – 7:05 am in Analyst Calls, CRL, ESLR, EYE, INTC, LLY, SPWRA

Short Sellers Losing Conviction in Alternative Energy (CSIQ, CPST, CLNE, ESLR, FSLR, FTEK, FCEL, HOKU, LDK, SPWR, STP)

Many traders and short sellers have loved targeting solar power and other alternative energy stocks. Interestingly, bets against these companies have not risen dramatically even though many of them are under pressure from falling energy and commodities prices. As you will see below, there was only one company with a significant rise in short interest.

Posted on: September 25, 2008 – 8:07 am in Alternative Energy, Short Interest, CLNE, CPST, CSIQ, ESLR, FCEL, FSLR, FTEK, HOKU, LDK, SPWR, STP

Government Wakes Up & Endorses Solar Tax Credits (FSLR, SPWR, STP, ESLR, ENER, SOLR)

For months we have been under the potential disaster scenario where solar tax credits were going to expire and end at the end of 2008. Despite the calls for energy independence and a move away from foreign oil, many believed that Congress would not renew the tax credits that are helping to foster domestic use of solar power. It seems that Congress may have realized how silly this expiration would have been and how much answering they might have had to come up with if it happened. The Senate has passed a bill that provides more than $17 billion in renewable tax incentives. Under the bill, the incentives would go through 2016. Below are the stocks showing major gains as a result:

Posted on: September 24, 2008 – 9:08 am in Alternative Energy, Law, Regulation, Utilities, ENER, ESLR, FSLR, SOLR, SPWR, STP

Alternative Energy Not Following Oil (FSLR, SPWR, STP, CSIQ, ESLR, CPST, FCEL, USU)

Oil is performing as though there were no sellers today. Recalling a single $20.00 move up in the price of oil in a single day is elusive, but a gain of $18.66 per barrel at $123.21 for October futures is being attributed to a drop in the dollar followed by one major short squeeze. We have already discussed this today with the supply interruption in the Caspian region. But if this was believed to be a sustained issue rather than a single day’s trading issue then you would see a follow-through in alternative energy stocks today. You aren’t. Solar, turbines, fuel cells are lagging. Here are today’s late day prices in some of the major stocks in the alternative energy sector which we follow:

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is down almost 5% at $230.03.
SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is down 1.5% at $88.27.
Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP) down over 2.3% at $42.50.
Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) is down 1.5% at $25.99.
Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) is down over 2% at $6.06.
Capstone Turbine Corp. (NASDAQ: CPST) is trading down over 7% at $1.40.
FuelCell Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FCEL) is down almost 3% at $7.05.
USEC Inc. (NYSE: USU), actually nuclear rather renewable but still our favorite in alternative energy picks, is down 1.4% at $5.63.

Oil’s drop has taken out all of the hype from most of the stocks in the alternative energy universe. What is funny is that many of these were deemed viable and to be in high demand even when oil was in the $50.00 range per barrel. But that is what makes a market. Either oil’s massive move up is a silly move, or these alternative energy leaders should be poised to make a massive run higher.

Jon C. Ogg
September 22, 2008

Posted on: September 22, 2008 – 1:39 pm in Alternative Energy, Oil & Gas, CPST, CSIQ, ESLR, FCEL, FSLR, SPWR, STP, USU

Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (ACE, NLY, ESLR, GFIG, HOKU, ITG, GS, KR, MON, NDAQ, TRV)

These are some of the positive calls and upgrades we have seen from analysts this morning:

ACE Ltd. (ACE) raised to buy at Goldman Sachs.
Annaly Capital (NLY) raised to overweight at JPMorgan.
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) raised to hold at Citigroup.
GFI Group (GFIG) raised to outperform at KBW.
Hoku Scientific (HOKU) raised to buy at Broadpoint.
Investment Technology Group (ITG) raised to outperform at KBW.
Goldman Sachs (GS) raised to outperform at Wachovia.
Kroger (KR) raised to buy at B of A.
Monsanto (MON) raised to buy at BB&T.
NASDAQ OMX (NDAQ) raised to outperform at KBW.
Travelers (TRV) raised to buy at Goldman Sachs.

Jon C. Ogg
September 17, 2008

Posted on: September 17, 2008 – 7:05 am in Analyst Calls, ACE, ESLR, GFIG, GS, HOKU, ITG, KR, MON, NDAQ, NLY, TRV

Lehman Rains On Solar Stocks Too (LEH, ESLR, JASO)

The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH) and the ongoing counterparty risk scenario isn’t just applicable to financial stocks. This is going to hit a couple of solar stocks pretty hard today. Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ:ESLR) looks to be taking the bigger hit, but JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) will also feel the pain.

Posted on: September 16, 2008 – 8:25 am in Alternative Energy, Brokerage Firms, ESLR, JASO, Leh

The 52-Week Low Club 9/15/2008 (LEH)(AIG)(ACLS)(ESLR)(GE)

Lehman (LEH) is bankrupt. Its stock plunged to $.15 from $67.73.

AIG (AIG) fears that it will be the next to fail. It drops to $3.50 from a 52-week high of $70.13.

Axcelis Technologies’ (ACLS) buyout plan by Sumitomo Heavy Industries is killed. The stock plunges to $1.25 from 52-week high of $6.04.

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) declines as falling oil prices are hurting alternative energy. The stock sells off to $4.47 from a 52-week high of $18.85

GE (GE) falls on concerns about GE Capital. It drops to $23.01 from 52-week high of $42.15

Douglas A. McIntrye

Posted on: September 15, 2008 – 2:55 pm in HI/LOW, ACLS, AIG, ESLR, GE, Leh

Short Seller Changes in Alternative Energy (CSIQ, CPST, CLNE, ESLR, FSLR, FTEK, FCEL, HOKU, LDK, SPWR)

Many traders and short sellers have loved targeting solar power and other alternative energy stocks. What is interesting is that the bets against these companies did not show a larger increase since many of them have been under pressure from falling energy and commodities prices..

Alternative Energy                         Aug 29    Aug 15    Change
Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ)          4,792,383 4,105,862 16.72%
Capstone Turbine Corp. (CPST) 26,868,541 27,148,261 -1.03%
Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE) 3,157,778 3,370,936    -6.32%
Evergreen Solar, Inc. (ESLR)       29,577,222 28,600,712    3.41%
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)                4,118,065 3,932,851    4.71%
Fuel Tech, Inc. (FTEK)                8,967,558 9,409,720 -4.70%
FuelCell Energy (FCEL)             13,231,020 13,547,382 -2.34%
Hoku Scientific (HOKU)                3,408,545 3,264,070    4.43%
LDK Solar Co. Inc. (LDK)             12,810,785 14,263,002 -10.18%
SunPower Corporation (SPWR)    18,696,656 18,939,191 -1.28%

Jon C. Ogg
September 11, 2008

Posted on: September 11, 2008 – 2:11 pm in Alternative Energy, Short Interest, CLNE, CPST, CSIQ, ESLR, FCEL, FSLR, FTEK, HOKU, LDK, SPWR

Evergreen Solar Scores Another Major Contract (ESLR)

Evergreen Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) has signed a new long-term sales contract of roughly $1.2 Billion with IBC SOLAR AG in Germany. This contract runs through 2013 and brings Evergreen’s total contractual backlog to nearly $3 Billion with 5 customers.

This is a huge contract which we would consider an "up to" amount as these are listed as "take or pay." The solar panels for these take-or-pay contracts will be manufactured at the new facility in Devens, Massachusetts and at Evergreen’s next factory, which is expected to open in 2010.

So far, the company has locked up about 70% of the Devens expected capacity through 2010 and all of the Devens capacity in 2011 through 2013.

Shares were originally halted on the news and yesterday’s close was at $9.16.

Jon C. Ogg
July 15, 2008

Posted on: July 15, 2008 – 6:53 am in Alternative Energy, ESLR

Lazard Clarifies Evergreen Solar Capital Raise, Maintains Buy Rating (ESLR)

Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) is a stock that has been under pressure after the company announced huge orders but then immediately turned around with a huge convertible note offering. The offering wasn’t a damning one because it was being used for factory expansion to increase its capacity, but it did come after a large move that left many shareholders feeling like they were suckered in.

This morning Lazard Capital Markets’ Sanjay Shrestha has maintained his BUY rating and his $15.00 price target on Evergreen Solar. What is perhaps more interesting than anything is that he is clarifying some of the uncertainties from that "capped Call" issue in this. While these can be good, they frequently confuse shareholders.

The $325 million in gross proceeds is after the inclusion of additional funds from that over-allotment option which was exercised. The 4% convertible notes are said to have a $12.11 conversion price, but because the capped call is in place Shrestha notes that this technically is not dilutive to current shares until an effective $19.00 price.

Shrestha’s $15.00 price target reflects 20-times earnings of $0.85 EPS for ESTIMATES 2010 Earnings, discounted back 15%. Shrestha concludes, "With near-term capital raise overhang behind the company, strong sales pipeline ($1.7 billion supplied by Evergreen and $850 million supplied by EverQ), excellent silicon position, and improved visibility on path to profitability, we believe ESLR represents a solid medium-term investment opportunity for small-cap investors, with an attractive risk/reward.

Jon Ogg
July 9, 2008

Posted on: July 9, 2008 – 7:55 am in Alternative Energy, Analyst Calls, ESLR

Short Sellers Still Target Solar Stocks (FSLR, SPWR, ESLR, CSIQ, AKNS, HOKU)

These are not all of the solar stocks we cover on NASDAQ, but as you can see the short selling against these stocks has increased as of mid-June despite the high energy costs. Here we ran the short interest for our main names in solar power NASDAQ such as First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQL FSLR), SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR), Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR), Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ), Akeena Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: AKNS), and Hoku Scientific, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOKU).

We broke these down by the stock with the date and we showed a comparison of both the May 30 date and what the related changes were at that date as well.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
06/13/2008 4,183,584 20.16%
05/30/2008 3,481,565 -1.03%

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
06/13/2008 16,804,676 6.46%
05/30/2008 15,784,486 3.63%

Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
06/13/2008 29,219,334 20.92%
05/30/2008 24,164,046 9.23%

Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
06/13/2008 4,634,187 8.23%
05/30/2008 4,281,924 -0.68%

Akeena Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: AKNS)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
06/13/2008 3,718,884 10.32%
05/30/2008 3,371,093 2.77%

Hoku Scientific, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOKU)
AS OF DATE Short Int. Change
06/13/2008 3,031,978 10.80%
05/30/2008 2,736,325 -19.45%

Jon C. Ogg
June 25, 2008

Posted on: June 25, 2008 – 12:01 pm in Alternative Energy, Short Interest, AKNS, CSIQ, ESLR, FSLR, HOKU, SPWR

Evergreen Solar Decides To Sell $300M In Convertible Notes (ESLR)

Evergreen Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) came out after the close of trading today with the announcement that it filed a shelf registration statement to sell $300 million in senior convertible notes due 2013. Lehman Brothers Inc. is acting as the sole book-running manager for the notes offering. Evergreen Solar expects to grant a $45 million over-allotment option to the underwriters for a 30-day period.

The notes will be convertible into cash up to the principal amount and shares of Evergreen Solar’s common stock for the remainder. The interest rate, conversion rate, conversion price, offering price and all other terms of the notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the notes.

Net proceeds from the offering will be used to complete the construction and equipping of its newly announced solar panel manufacturing facility in Devens, Massachusetts and for other construction, purchases of or prepayments for polysilicon and other raw materials, and working capital needs.

Evergreen Solar also plans to enter into a capped call transaction with an affiliate of Lehman Brothers Inc. in an effort to increase the effective conversion premium of the notes and to reduce the potential dilution upon conversion of the notes.

Shares fell over 4% to $11.57 today, but shares are down 3% in after-hours at $11.20 in addition to today’s weakness. Companies think they are doing themselves a favor in these capped call and derivative transaction agreements, but Wall Street and Main Street don’t always agree as getting the full terms or the real details is not always the easiest thing to do for those who didn’t participate in the offering. To put this in comparison for a size of the company, Evergreen’s market cap at the close today was $1.4 Billion.

After that huge contract announcement last week with such a huge backlog, this might have been expected. But there are going to be some traders who chased this one up since that news release who aren’t going to have many great things to say about Evergreen Solar today or tomorrow.

Jon C. Ogg
June 24, 2008

Posted on: June 24, 2008 – 3:29 pm in Alternative Energy, Secondary Offering, ESLR

Evergreen Solar Signs Major Green Contract (ESLR)

Evergreen Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: ESLR) has rewarded its investors with the announcement that it has signed two new long-term sales contracts valued at approximately $600 million. The agreements are with groSolar in the U.S. and with Wagner & Co Solartechnik GmbH in Germany.

These contracts extend through 2012 and this now brings Evergreen’s total contractual backlog to approximately $1.7 billion. For a comparison on how large this is and what it adds, analysts from First Call are only looking for an entire 2008 revenue base of $118.75 million.

The solar panels for these two contracts and the two contracts previously announced in May will be manufactured at the company’s new Devens, Massachusetts facility, which is set to begin production in July. These combined four deals now account for some 65% of the company’s expected 160MW of annual production capacity at Devens through 2013.

Evergreen Solar also has six other customer contracts with a current total backlog of approximately $850 million, which will primarily be supplied by EverQ, its German-based joint venture.

Evergreen closed up marginally at $10.24 today and shares are up over 10% at $11.35 in after-hours trading after the news. Its market cap is $1.24 Billion before tonight’s after-hours gains. This pop and this interest should make this one of the more active alternative energy stocks Thursday.

This is one we we have reviewed in our weekly "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter, where we have 3 other active picks on the list in alternative energy, green energy, or "less dirty" energy.

Jon C. Ogg
June 18, 2008

Posted on: June 18, 2008 – 4:05 pm in Alternative Energy, ESLR

Short Sellers Targeting Solar & Alternative Energy (AKNS, ASTI, CSIQ, CPST, ESLR, FTEK, OTTR, SPWR)

The overall short interest on NASDAQ stocks was actually pretty dull from the end of April to Mid-May, or at least that is the case until you go straight into looking at solar stocks and other alternative energy stocks. Many of these have seen their stock prices rise sharply over the last few months. Many were viable with $70 or $80 oil, but after $100 and then $130 oil you can imagine that short sellers are targeting the most up or most speculative names.
                                                      MAY 15    APRIL 30    CHANGE
Akeena Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKNS) 3,280,165 3,042,025    7.83%
Ascent Solar Tech (NASDAQ: ASTI)    2,106,784 1,889,624    11.49%
Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) 4,311,126 3,562,672    21.01%
Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ: CPST)    12,860,110 11,491,389 11.91%
Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR)    22,122,144 20,622,446    7.27%
Fuel Tech, Inc. (NASDAQ: FTEK)       7,488,443 6,443,583    16.22%
Otter Tail Corp. (NASDAQ: OTTR)       2,126,732 1,960,651       8.47%
SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR)    15,231,873 14,016,469    8.67%

As you have seen, most of these are solar plays, but some aren’t. Fuel Tech helps power plants burn cleaner coal, and it has had more problems over the last year on making its earnings numbers. Otter Tail is a diversified "General Eclectic" but it has become more well known for making wind towers of late; and it hasn’t hurt that Bill Gates has been a holder for quite some time. Capstone Turbine has been our largest winner in our weekly "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter in the sector with a 200% gain; and it is still an active hold in that group. We also just featured Akeena Solar over at VSinvestor.com for a highly unusual volume spike alert.

These are the ones we screened with the largest short interest increases in the sector seem to be more speculative names, although there were some that saw decreases and we excluded those from this list. Out of the alternative energy or "cleaner" energy stocks we follow, these were the ones with the largest increase in the short interest.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other issues in short interest, secondary offerings, IPO’s, private equity, special financings.

Jon Ogg
May 28, 2008

Posted on: May 28, 2008 – 9:58 am in Alternative Energy, Short Interest, AKNS, ASTI, CPST, CSIQ, ESLR, FTEK, OTTR, SPWR

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) Up 20%, Caveat Emptor

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) is trading up 20% to $10.86 on news that it signed $1 billion worth of contracts.

The larger of the deals involved is with German-based Ralos Vertriebs GmbH and has a face value of $750 million. But, the terms spread the agreement over five years, ending in 2013. It is not clear what the cost of sales here is. Wall St. may look at this as roughly $150 million per annum with a return which may be modest.

ESLR traded above $18 at Christmas last year.

Solar companies have done well lately because of the alternative energy craze. But, Evergreen Solar has been something of an exception. Its first quarter earnings were very disappointing. Revenues were $18.3 million for the first quarter of 2008, compared to $16.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2007 and $12.6 million in the first quarter of 2007. For a company in a "hot" sector, that growth is modest.

And, the company had an operating loss of $7.5 million, about two-thirds of that for facility start-up and write-off costs. That would tend to speak poorly of management.

Evergreen looks good on the news, but no so strong on its merits.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: May 22, 2008 – 11:03 am in Micro Cap, ESLR

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