The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up about 46 points to 12,625.19 (0.37%), the NASDAQ rose more than 18 points (0.67%) to 2,788.33, and the S&P 500 rose 0.5% or more than 6 points to 1,314.52.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) started as ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) started as ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) maintained ‘sell’ at Argus; Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) maintained as ‘buy’ with target price of $130 but lowered estimates at Argus; and Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) cut to ‘neutral’ at JPMorgan.

Earnings reports since markets closed yesterday have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Ebay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) is up nearly 4% at $31.55; Sealy Corp. Inc. (NYSE: ZZ) is down nearly -18% at $1.51; Blackrock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) is down -0.75% at $186.39; Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) is up 2.65% at $6.98; Fairchild Semiconductor International Inc. (NYSE: FCS) is down -3.51% at $14.02; Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) is down -0.22% at $44.37; Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is up 5.42% at $18.29; and Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) is up 3.33% at $9.32.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

8×8 Inc. (NASDAQ: EGHT) is up more than 26% at $4.30. The telecom services company reported much better-than-expected earnings for its third fiscal quarter.

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) is down more than -15% at $8.32. The solar panel maker is falling following Germany’s announcement that it will begin lowering its solar subsidies.

JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) is down nearly -15% at $$1.80. This Chinese solar panel maker is suffering from the German subsidy cut as well.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is down -14% at $3.18. Another Chinese solar maker hit by the cuts to German subsidies. The list could go on, but you get the idea.

Stay tuned for Friday. We have noted the following event on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 10:00 a.m. – Existing home sales

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Barron’s listed  Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A), Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), Metlife, Inc. (NYSE: MET), and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG).  The list also includes some ADRs via Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A), Vodafone Group PLC (NYSE: VOD), Sanofi (NYSE: SNY), and Daimler (DDAIF).

The aim was companies with low P/E ratios, somewhat high dividends, and companies with an expected upside of potentially 15% to 20%.  This won’t excite many investors.  Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was not in the list nor was Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG).  Neither pays a dividend, but both have relatively low P/E ratios considering the recent growth (14 for Apple and about 17 for Google).  If you use the Thomson Reuters consensus analyst price target, Apple has 29% upside and Google has 16% upside.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) is interesting now that it has added International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) to its portfolio.  IBM yields a low 1.5% today and is buying back stock despite trading at all-times highs.  The company’s goal is $20.00 in earnings per share by 2015.  Intel just warned about a large revenue shortfall but its dividend yield is now about 3.5%.

Comcast Corporation (NYSE: CMCSA) is actually still interesting because of its growth and value and because it is changing its mix to include content.  The 2% yield is one which has room for further dividend growth and the cable giant’s share price actually offers almost 30% to the Thomson Reuters consensus price target.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) and Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) are both very opportunistic calls.  Hard disk drive troubles around the globe, a prior discount to highs, and a dividend north of 4% helped Seagate.  Freeport-McMorRan is an opportunistic call now that global growth has brought down shares of metals companies drastically.  It has a 2.5% yield, which is not bad for a metals company, and at $39.00 the Thomson Reuters consensus price target is actually 30% higher than the current share price.

Perhaps the ADRs and European plays of Daimler (DDAIF), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A), Sanofi (NYSE: SNY) and Vodafone Group PLC (NYSE: VOD) are opportunistic around the weakness of Europe today.  After all, if the Euro Zone continues its downward trajectory and with the Euro currency at an 11-month low it would seem that the article could blame a worsening effect if these positions do not work out.

24/7 Wall St. has recently announced a couple of key lists with predictions and expected upside.  Our DJIA Stocks Soon To Raise Dividends has already seen some come to fruition even sooner than expected, and we have released to our free email subscribers the 24/7 Wall St. 2012 Model Dividend Portfolio.

If you want to receive the full 24/7 Wall St. 2012 Model Dividend Portfolio you can sign up in the email submission below.  Each morning we send our free email list subscribers a snapshot of the key feature stories, the top daily analyst upgrades and downgrades, previews for key events, and many other aspects governing your finances.

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Barron’s noted a 6.9% drop so far in 2011 for its Favorite Stocks for 2011 versus a 1.9% drop in the S&P 500 Index.

JON C. OGG

Gold prices have gained about $60/ounce, about 3.6%. Silver prices are up roughly 9%. Copper prices are up by about 8.6%. Titanium prices are unchanged, steel prices have been drifting though more varieties appear to be selling at lower prices, and rare earth minerals vary widely depending on the particular mineral. Lanthanum oxides are selling for about $61/kilogram, while terbium oxide goes for $605/kilogram.

All stock data comes from Yahoo! Finance and current prices were gathered in the early afternoon today.

Of the companies we survey, all but one enjoys a higher stock price today than they did last month. The single exception is Molycorp, which is getting punished today for missing both EPS and revenue estimates. At yesterday’s closing price of $38.70, Molycorp’s share price was higher than it was a month ago.

More interesting, perhaps, were recent changes in median price targets. Only Nucor and Titanium’s price targets have remained the same in the last month. Two stocks, Newmont and Barrick, had their price targets raised and the other seven had price targets lowered.

Newmont’s target price was raised from $77 to $81. At the new target price and a current price of $70.41, Newmont’s implied gain is $10.59, or 15%. The stock put up a new 52-week high last week, and its forward P/E also rose from 10.2 to 11.47. In the past month, shares have gained more than $7, or 11%. The company’s pledge to raise dividends if gold price targets are met is another reason to look carefully at this stock.

Barrick’s target price was raised from $66.50 to $68. At the new target price and a current price of $52.61, Barrick’s implied gain is $15.39, or 29%. Shares are trading at less than 6% away from the 52-week high of $55.95. Over the past month, Barrick’s shares have gained 12%.

The largest drop in target price was settled on Molycorp, which saw its target price fall from $80- to $70. Even at that, the implied gain for the shares, based on today’s price of $34.04, is 106%. The wide gap is due not so much to any failure on Molycorp’s part but to what might be “irrational exuberance” for the stock by investors. There is also the fact that Molycorp’s mineral reserves tend to be heavy on the lower-priced rare earths and light on the higher-priced metals.

The largest percentage drop in target price was claimed by US Steel, which saw its target price fall from $40 to $34.50, nearly 14%. The company posted a new 52-week low on October 3rd. At the current price of $26.08, the implied gain is $8.42, or 32%. US Steel is widely expected to be acquired — and fairly soon — which is attracting short sellers in droves.

Freeport-McMoran’s target price fell from $55 to $53 in the past month, even though shares have added $5.05, or about 15%, in the same period. The implied gain based on the new target price and the current price of $39.83 is 33%. Freeport’s problem is that demand for copper might be stagnating or worse, given the construction slowdown in China.

Silver Wheaton’s target price fell from $51.50 to $49.50, while the share price has gained 17%. At the new target price and based on today’s price of $36.18, the implied gain here is 37%. There is plenty of headroom for Silver Wheaton’s share price to continue rising, but demand for silver will be the driver.

Alcoa’s target price dropped from $15.50 to $13 in the last month, even as the share price has risen by about 8%. At the new target price and based on the current price of $10.58, the implied gain in Alcoa stock is nearly 23%. Given that shares rose by 8% in the last month, anything’s possible, even that Alcoa may hit the lower target.

The target price for Steel Dynamics fell from $18 to $16, while share prices gained a substantial 23% in the same period. At the new target price and a current price of $13.51, the implied gain in the stock is 18%. EPS estimates for the current quarter have fallen by nearly -20% in the past month, following lowered guidance from the company.

Southern Copper’s target price fell from from $36.75 to $36.25 in the past month, even though the share price rose by 21%. At the new target and at the current price of $32.41, the implied gain for Southern Copper is nearly 12%.

Paul Ausick

Closing bell. The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 207 points to 12,043.19 (1.75%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 58 points (2.2%) to 2,697.97, and the S&P 500 rose 1.87% or more than 23 points to 1,261.10.

Analyst upgrades and downgrades. There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) started at ‘overweight’ at Barclays. Career Education Corp. (NASDAQ: CECO), Clorox Corp. (NYSE: CLX), and Rockwell Collins Inc. (NYSE: COL) were cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch; and Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) and Medtronic Inc. (NYSE: MDT) were started as ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse.

Market reacts to earnings. Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Fair Isaac Corp. (NYSE: FICO) is up about 25%, at $33.95; Lamar Advertising Co. (NASDAQ: LAMR) is up nearly 25%, at $26.18; Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: OWW) is up 40%, at $2.66; K-Swiss Inc. (NASDAQ: KSWS) is down more than -33%, at $3.09; and Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) is down about -13%, at $48.73.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Medivation Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN) is up 140%, at $39.74 after posting a new 52-week high of $40.15 earlier today. The company reported that an experimental prostate cancer drug reduced death risk by 37%.

Sonesta International Hotels Corp. (NASDAQ: SNSTA) is up nearly 41%, at $30.65 after posting a new 52-week high of $31.06. The company has agreed to be acquired for $31/share by an affiliate of Hospitality Properties Trust (NYSE: HPT).

SonoSite, Inc. (NASDAQ: SONO) is up about 29%, at 39.62 after posting a new 52-week high of $40 earlier today. Sonosite is reported to have hired Morgan Stanley to find a buyer for the company and talks are already in progress with potential buyers, including Samsung Electronics.

Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) is down more than -37%, at $6.53 after setting a new 52-week low of $6.52 earlier today. The company today reiterated its forecast for only modest sales of its Provenge anti-cancer drug.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) is down nearly -20%, at $59.51. The company reported slowing sales in Europe, a region where the company had pinned its hopes for growth.

Clearwire Corp. (NASDAQ: CLWR) is down about -14%, at $1.75. The company is seeking additional financing and has been unable to get its largest customer and majority shareholder Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) to commit to the financing.

Stay tuned for Friday. The G-20 summit opened today and will continue meeting tomorrow and over the weekend. Monster Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: MWW) releases its October report on US online job demand. We have noted the following event (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Non-farm payroll data for October

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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Career Education Corp. (NASDAQ: CECO) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Clorox Corp. (NYSE: CLX) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
CNH Global N.V. (NYSE: CNH) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) Started as Overweight at Barclays.
Hexcel Corporation (NYSE: HXL) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Hospira Inc. (NYSE: HSP) cut to Underperform ar Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Medtronic Inc. (NYSE: MDT) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Rockwell Collins Inc. (NYSE: COL) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Sierra Wireless Inc. (NASDAQ: SWIR) downgraded at Raymond James and Morgan Keegan.
St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Sun Life Financial Inc. (NYSE: SLF) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NASDAQ: TEVA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Tidewater Inc. (NYSE: TDW) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Wyndam Worldwide (NYSE: WYN) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

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Iron ore purchases have seriously begun migrating to the spot market, which is particularly hard on small miners, though less of a problem for BHP, Rio Tinto and Vale. These giant miners can take a longer view of market conditions, and all are spending to expand production to meet growing demand. And demand remains strong to some extent because spot prices are, in many cases, lower than contract prices.

If customer demand continues to be strong, and the iron ore miners are unable to negotiate advantageous quarterly contracts as spot prices decline, then expanded production hardly seems the answer. That is especially the case if production costs continue to rise.

The situation in copper production is similar. China, which is the world’s largest consumer of copper, has been slowing down its copper refining industry and pulling materials from inventory rather than buying more. At some point, the refiners will have to restock, but that day could be some time off. Volatile copper prices are, so far at least, keeping Chinese buyers from making large purchases.

Copper prices have risen from near $3 per pound at the beginning of the month to around $3.40 per pound today, though still well below late July prices of around $4.40 per pound. But unlike the case with iron ore, demand is not as strong and a strike at Freeport’s Peruvian and Indonesian mines is lowering production goals. BHP has delayed some deliveries originally scheduled for the second half of 2011 to next year as it recovers from strike at its Chilean copper mine.

BlackRock’s claim that the big miners are undervalued appears to have merit based on the current state of the market and on expected demand from China. The real question might be one of timing. Iron ore and copper prices are currently low and may still be searching for a bottom. When that bottom is reached is anybody’s guess, but there is little reason to believe that it will happen very soon.

Demand for iron ore and copper remains strong in India and Brazil, while demand from developed countries is steady at best. Without a demand spike from China, though, India and Brazil together will not push prices significantly higher. Increased production and lower customer acceptance of quarterly contract pricing could continue to weaken, if not erode, prices further.

All these mining company stocks posted a new 52-week low earlier this month, although all have begun to climb back. For the past 12 months, BHP is down the least, at 6.5% and Southern Copper is down the most, at 31%. And today, when the DJIA is down about 1.2%, all these miners, except Southern, are down nearly twice as much. BlackRock has not made many converts today.

Paul Ausick

United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) has a median target price of $40.00 from 14 brokers. Shares are trading today at $23.52, for an implied gain of $16.48, or 41.2%. US Steel’s forward P/E is 6.46 and the company’s dividend yield is 0.90%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $18.85-$64.03, and at today’s price that’s about 25% above its 52-week low and 63% below the 52-week high. The huge difference between US Steel’s 52-week high and its current price indicates a substantial opportunity here, if the company can get its act together. It owns its own sources of iron ore and coke, so it is relatively insulated from the higher costs faced by many other steel makers. The company should be doing better than this, but it’s a tough market out there.

Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE) has a median target price of $45.00 from 13 brokers. Shares traded today at $34.85, for an implied gain of $10.15, or 22.6%. Nucor’s forward P/E is 10.34 and the company’s dividend yield is 4.20%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $29.82-$49.24, and at today’s price that’s about 17% above the 52-week low and 29% below the 52-week high. Nucor stock recently took a hit when the company lowered third-quarter EPS estimates to $0.45-$0.55 compared with analysts’ expectation of $0.64. Demand for raw materials raises costs for Nucor, at the same time that demand in the US has fallen.

Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) has a median target price of $18.00 from 13 brokers. Shares traded today at $10.95, for an implied gain of $7.05, or 39.2%. Steel Dynamics’ forward P/E is 6.49 and the company’s dividend yield is 3.70%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $8.78-$20.70, and at today’s price that’s about 25% above the 52-week low and 47% below the 52-week high. Like Nucor, Steel Dynamics revised EPS expectations downward last month by at least a third compared with analysts expectations.

Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) has a median target price of $77.00 from 16 brokers. Shares are trading today at $63.24, for an implied gain of $13.76, or 17.9%. Newmont’s forward P/E is 10.2 and the company’s dividend yield is 1.9%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $50.05-$71.25, and at today’s price that’s about 26% above the 52-week low and 11% below the 52-week high. Newmont is the largest gold miner in the world and its dividend yield is also the highest among the miners. The company has committed to raising dividends if certain gold price targets are hit, making life even tougher for competitors.

Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) has a median price target of $66.50 from 20 brokers. Shares traded today at $46.93, for an implied gain of $19.57, or 29.4%. Barrick’s forward P/E is 7.67 and the company’s dividend yield is 1%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $42.50-$55.95, and at today’s price that’s about 10% above the 52-week low and 16% below the 52-week high. Gold mining stocks have not been able to keep up with the rising price of gold mainly because the miners’ costs keep rising even as gold prices rise. Barrick is one of the lowest cost producers among the big gold mining companies, and that’s a real positive for the company.

Which U.S. industries and companies stand to get hit the hardest in the event a trade war gets started? The U.S. Census Bureau provides data on the dollar amounts of U.S. imports from and exports to China that we have looked at to see where the impacts could be the largest.

According the Census Bureau data, in 2010 the U.S. imported goods from China worth about $365 billion, while exporting goods worth about $92 billion. If the U.S. were to implement tariffs on imports, the likeliest targets would be the goods with the largest dollar value. These imports include computer, semiconductors and telecom gear worth about $88 billion in 2010, clothing and other household goods worth an aggregate of about $71 billion, toys and similar items worth about $27 billion, televisions and other video equipment worth about $15 billion.

If all that sounds like the stuff you can buy at Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) or Target (NYSE: TGT) or any number of other U.S. department stores, then be prepared to pay more for these items. Because comparatively little clothing or TVs or toys are manufactured in the U.S. any longer, an import duty on these items would hurt U.S. consumers without providing a lot of help to U.S. manufacturers. Hopes that a new manufacturing segment might spring up are not likely to be realized among large companies but smaller manufacturers could gain some benefit.

However, if China responds with import tariffs of its own, several major U.S. industries could get seriously hurt. Raw materials exports such as coal, copper, iron ore, lumber, and other metals are particularly vulnerable. So are agricultural products like soybeans, cotton, and corn. Industrial and agricultural machinery exports could also face penalties. Another substantial U.S. export is automobiles.

Coal miners like Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) and Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) could get hit, as could copper miners Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO). Lumber companies Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) and Plum Creek Timber (NYSE: PCL) could face higher duties on log exports.

Agricultural products companies such as Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) and Bunge (NYSE: BG) could be in China’s sights if duties are applied to food exports. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) and Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) are likely to see prices for their equipment rise with a concomitant loss of sales to competitors from Japan and Korea.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor (NYSE: F) both look to China as a growth opportunity. In 2010 U.S. car sales in China totaled more than $3 billion. Slapping a tariff on U.S. cars could really chill the hopes of the U.S. automakers. General Electric (NYSE: GE) could also face tariffs on industrial engines and parts, as well as aircraft parts and other equipment.

China has been fighting inflation for most of this year by restricting bank lending and raising interest rates. Absent a significant currency adjustment, this does little good for the global economy and not much long-term good for China’s domestic economy. If the yuan were allowed to float freely, it could appreciate by as much as 30%. That would quickly eliminate the inflation threat in China, bringing the cost of the country’s goods more into line with foreign costs, slowing the country’s exports, and giving other economies a chance to fill the gap and begin growing again.

But that outcome does not appear likely. Instead, China appears willing to fight the Senate legislation with a trade war. The war of words is likely to last well into next year, but the first real shot is already being primed.

Paul Ausick

Copper prices have dropped by more than $1/pound from around $4.50/pound at the beginning of August. CME raised the copper margin by 18% on September 24th, so this is the second rise in just over two weeks. At the same time as the last rise, CME also raised the margin requirements on gold by 21% and silver by 16%. CME’s rationale for raising margin requirements is based on what it calls a “normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.”

CME’s move has probably played a part in lifting copper mining stocks Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) and Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO), as well as gold miners Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), and silver miner Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW).

If copper margins are rising today, can requirements on gold and silver be far behind? The margin requirement for a speculative trader to open a position on a 100-ounce gold contract is $11,475. At today’s price of around $1,648/ounce, that is just 7% of the value of the contract.

The margin requirement for a speculative 5,000-ounce silver contract is $24,875. At today’s silver price of nearly $32/ounce, the value of a contract is $160,000. That calculates to a margin requirement of about 15.5%.

The rise in margin requirements last month put a damper on prices for all three of the metals. That is not happening with copper today, as the price is up nearly 5%. The news that the European Central Bank is offering essentially unlimited additional emergency loans to eurozone banks is putting some air under all markets today, and the commodities markets are not excepted.

Still, there is a nearly certain chance that CME will lift its gold and silver margin requirements again. The margin on gold contracts seems particularly out of kilter given the 15% requirement for both silver and copper. But if today’s market reaction is any indication, margin requirement increases do not play as big a role in metals trading as might be thought.

Freeport’s shares are up about 1.5%, at $34.97, in a 52-week range of $28.85 – $61.35. Southern Copper’s shares are up nearly 2.5%, at $27.04, in a 52-week range of $22.58 – $50.35. The iPath DJ-UBS Copper Total Return Subindex ETN (NYSE: JJC) is up nearly 3%, at $41.95, in a 52-week range of $38.99 – $61.69.

Gold miner Newmont’s shares are up about 0.5%, at $63.33, in a 52-week range of $50.05 – $71.25 and Barrick’s shares are up about 1.5%, at $46.98, in a 52-week range of $42.50 – $55.95. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is up about 0.2%, at $159.74, in a 52-week range of $127.80-$185.85. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) is up about 0.7%, at $55.28, in a 52-week range of $50.42 – $66.98. The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) is up more than 3.5%, at $29.21, in a 52-week range of $25.22 – $44.86.

Silver Wheaton shares are up about 5%, at $30.81, in a 52-week range of $25.35 – $47.60. The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) is up more than 3.5%, at $30.75, in a 52-week range of $21.97 – $48.35. The Global X Silver Minters ETF (NYSE: SIL) is up nearly 4.5%, at $21.93, in a 52-week range of $18.74 – $31.34.

Paul Ausick

Copper prices peaked in February, about a month behind copper miners Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Co. (NYSE: FCX), Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE: SCCO) and a little earlier than BHP Billiton plc (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto plc (NYSE: RIO). The decline in share prices was gradual from about April through July, but beginning in August shares turned more sharply down, as did the price of copper itself.

Corn prices hit a peak in June, and are still about 20% higher than they were in October 2010. None of the big ag stocks are near that high except fertilizer maker Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), up 31% in the past 12 months. Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) shares are off -23% in the past year, Bunge Ltd. shares are off about -3%, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan shares are down about -11%, and Mosaic Co. is off nearly -18%. Ethanol producers Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is up about 2%, while Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX) is barely breathing, off -96%.

The decline in the copper price began when orders from China began to cool off as a result of the country’s efforts to slow down its GDP growth. By some reports the country has an over-supply of housing that tops 65 million units. If the number is even half that, demand for copper in China could fall dramatically. And it’s possible to argue that a housing glut in China drove the copper price to new heights because construction in the US and other developed countries has stalled.

But the current global economic malaise is not entirely attributable to China. Eurozone sovereign debt and questions about the zone’s banks have pushed markets down hard and could be just as responsible for the falling price of copper as softer demand from China. In other words, copper could be following, not leading, a macroeconomic decline.

The falling price of corn can be attributed to better crop forecasts and the recent ‘discovery’ of more than 200 million bushels in US stocks has put even more pressure on corn prices. Unlike copper, though, corn prices get some demand help from a large alternative market. If corn is a leading indicator, then the effect of ethanol production, which consumes about 40% of the US corn crop, distorts its influence.

Ethanol production is highly profitable at the current price of around $6/bushel. Corn prices would have to rise to unprecedented heights over $9.50/bushel before demand from ethanol makers would start to decline. Even without the $0.45/gallon federal subsidy, corn prices would need to top $8/bushel before they would pinch the ethanol makers.

Something similar to the ethanol prop to corn prices doesn’t exist for copper. Some 70% of copper demand comes from construction and electrical/electronic industries. Of the remaining 30%, about 12% comes from the transportation industry and 9% comes from makers of industrial machinery. None of those sectors is large enough to prop up copper prices as ethanol props up corn prices.

The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETF (NYSE: JJC) is down more than -1.5% in the first half hour of trading this morning at $39.46, barely above its 52-week low of $39.08. The 52-week high is $61.69. The First Trust ISE Global Copper Index Fund (NASDAQ: CU) is up about 2.25%, at $26.37, in a 52-week range of $23.60-$46.85.

Agricultural ETFs are up slightly this morning. The Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE: CORN) is up about 0.5%, at $40.09, in a 52-week range of $31.37-$50.69. The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: DBA) is up about 0.6%, at $29.90, in a 52-week range of $26.60-$35.58. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is up about 0.9%, at $42.30, in a 52-week range of $39.86-$57.93.

Paul Ausick