24/7 Wall St. » FDO

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (DTV, KMI, VZ, WTW, NVDA, CBK, SNX, FDO, JOSB, MOS, RHT, SN, BBY, SHAW, CMC, AMLN, VRML)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 20:04:46 +0000

Markets opened nearly flat this morning but took a dive early and have muddled along the rest of the day in negative territory. This morning’s report on falling durable goods orders got things off on the wrong foot (our coverage here). The US crude oil commercial inventory grew by a larger-than-expected amount, pushing crude prices down significantly (our coverage here). The US dollar index rose today, now up 0.12% at 79.140. Commodities were mostly lower on the stronger dollar. WTI crude oil closed down about -1.9% at $105.41/barrel, and Brent crude trades down -1.09% at $124.17/barrel. Gold settled down -1.6% today, at $1,657.90/ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 72 points to 13,126.06 (-0.54%), the NASDAQ fell more than 15 points (-0.49%) to 3,104.96, and the S&P 500 fell -0.49% or nearly 7 points to 1,405.54.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including DirecTV Inc. (NASDAQ: DTV) raised to ‘buy’ at Citigroup and reiterated as ‘buy’ at Canaccord Genuity; Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE: KMI) started as ‘equal weight’ at Morgan Stanley; Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) cut to ‘sector perform’ at RBC; Weight Watchers International Inc. (NYSE: WTW) started as ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; and Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) raised to ‘market perform’ at JMP Securities.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Christopher & Banks Corp. (NYSE: CBK) is down -13% at $2.05 after posting a new 52-week low of $1.85 earlier today; Synnex Corp. (NYSE: SNX) is down -13% at $37.94 (more coverage here); Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) is up 0.6% at $58.58 (more coverage here); and Jos. A. Banks Clothiers Inc. (NASDAQ: JOSB) is down -8.7% at $49.77 (more coverage here). After markets close today the Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT), and Sanchez Energy Corp. (NYSE: SN) will report earnings. Before the markets open in the morning, we’ll get earnings from Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) and Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE: SHAW).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Commercial Metals Corp. (NYSE: CMC) is up 0.49%. The steel and metal fabricator posted better-than-expected earnings this morning. More coverage here.

Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) is up more than 53%. The drug maker rejected a takeover bid. More coverage here.

Vermillion Inc. (NASDAQ: VRML) is up 19%. The drug maker received a patent approval today. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker are giving speeches. We have also noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – New unemployment benefits claims
8:30 a.m. – Corporate profits
10:30 a.m. – EIA natural gas storage report
11:00 a.m. – Kansas City Fed manufacturing index

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Analyst Calls, HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: AMLN, BBY, CBK, CMC, DTV, FDO, JOSB, KMI, MOS, NVDA, RHT, SHAW, SN, SNX, VRML, VZ, WTW

Analyst Downgrading Dollar Store Theme (FDO, WMT)

Administrator — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 15:43:51 +0000

Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (NYSE: FDO) may be trading up after its earnings, but there is a call of caution that needs to be highlighted. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has downgraded the dollar store chain to “Neutral” from “Buy” and it lowered the price target down to $60 from $67 in the call. If the logic is correct, Family Dollar is effectively at or very close to a fully valued story.

Dollar stores are supposed to be the secular growth theme for retail in the decade ahead. The companies have reached up into some higher priced goods as food products and other products are being made cheaper for consumers at the same time that millions of consumers have had to reach down in price. Another concern in the downgrade is that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is a threat as it plans to accelerate its Express store openings.

The downgrade from BofA/ML is effectively over execution concerns after th company’s earnings were below expectations. The report even noted that this was the fifth consecutive quarter that Family Dollar reported comparable sales that were below or at the low end of management’s guidance.

The good news for investors playing the secular growth theme of this retail segment is that BofA/ML noted as a contrast that peers have benefitted from industry strength and internal initiatives. The peers have also been beating same store sales expectations. It was further noted that Family Dollar is not fully leveraging its own internal initiatives at this point. Another concern was rising inventories with a gain of 15.4% total and up 11% per store. Markdown fears are rising and the report bases the price target reduction as now being based on 17-times 2012 earnings estimates rather than 18-times.

Whether this is a secular growth segment or not, investors should be asking if they should really be paying 17-times or 18-times earnings for a broader sector that trades at lower earnings multiples.

Family Dollar Stores shares are trading up 1% at $58.84 against a 52-week trading range of $44.42 to $60.53. Thomson Reuters has a consensus price target objective of $60.45 on this stock.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Analyst Calls, Consumer Goods, Retail Tagged: FDO

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (MU, ATVI, BAC, SCCO, APOL, GOL, WAG, LEN, CBK, SNX, FDO, MOS, ISTA, OPXT, OCLR, HOGS)

Paul Ausick — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 20:05:41 +0000

Markets opened slightly higher this morning but have been wobbling around the neutral line for the whole day. This morning’s report on the decline of housing prices (our coverage here) and the drop in US consumer confidence has kept buyers in check (our coverage here). There was little other news sufficient to move the markets today. The US dollar index rose today, now up 0.14% at 79.091. Commodities were mixed on the dollar strength, with wheat taking the biggest decline. WTI crude oil closed up 0.3% at $107.33/barrel, and Brent crude trades down -0.34% at $125.22/barrel. Gold settled down less than -0.1% today, at $1,684.90/ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 44 points to 13,197.96 (-0.33%), the NASDAQ fell more than 2 points (-0.07%) to 3,120.35, and the S&P 500 fell -0.28% or nearly 4 points to 1,412.52.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) started as ‘buy’ at Jefferies; Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) started as ‘buy’ at Stifel Nicolaus; Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) cut to ‘neutral’ at Baird; Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE: SCCO) raised to ‘overweight’ at Morgan Stanley; and Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) cut to ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Apollo Group Inc. is down -8.6% at $39.48; Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA (NYSE: GOL) is up 2.7% at $7.32; Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) is up 1.3% at $34.80; and Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) is up 4.7% at $27.65 after posting a new 52-week high earlier today of $28.28 (more coverage here and here). After markets close today Christopher & Banks Corp. (NYSE: CBK) and Synnex Corp. (NYSE: SNX) will report earnings. Before the markets open in the morning, we’ll get earnings from Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) and the Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

ISTA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ISTA) is up 7.9% at $9.04. The drug company is being acquired. More coverage here.

Opnext Inc. (NASDAQ: OPXT) is up more than 53% at $1.73. The optical equipment maker is merging with Oclaro Inc. (NASDAQ: OCLR). More coverage here.

Zhongpin Inc. (NASDAQ: HOGS) is up nearly 25% at $11.51. The Chinese food processing company has received a preliminary offer to be taken private. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard is giving a speech. We have also noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase applications
8:30 a.m. – Durable goods orders
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
1:00 p.m. – 5-year note auction

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: APOL, ATVI, BAC, CBK, FDO, GOL, HOGS, ISTA, LEN, MOS, MU, OCLR, OPXT, SCCO, SNX, WAG

Top Earnings Previews for the Week Ahead (APOL, GOL, LEN, PVH, WAG, CMC, FDO, MOS, PAYX, RHT, SN, TEA, BBY, PBY, RIMM)

Administrator — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 15:15:02 +0000

Earnings season is all but over and only the tail end of the quarterly and off-calendar reporting outfits are still reporting earnings. Still, the coming week does have several key earnings reports coming down the pipe.

We are offering previews and adding color if applicable on the following companies: Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL); GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. (NYSE: GOL); Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN); PVH Corporation (NYSE: PVH); Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG); Commercial Metals Co. (NYSE: CMC); Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO); The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS); Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX); Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT); Sanchez Energy Corporation (NYSE: SN); Teavana Holdings Inc. (NYSE: TEA); Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY); Pep Boys-Manny Moe & Jack (NYSE: PBY); and Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM).

Monday , March 26

Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL): Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.37 EPS and $932.8 million in revenues. Shares of the online university at around $42.50 and the 52-week range is $37.08 to $58.29.

GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. (NYSE: GOL) is expected to report earnings of $0.07 EPS on a translated basis from Brazilian Reals for the Latin American airline outfit. A slowing Brazil story has not helped GOL out and at $7.50 the 52-week trading range is $5.03 to $14.35.

Tuesday, March 27

Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) was soft after weaker than expected new home sales data for February, but the homebuilder is up over 100% from the lows of 2011. At $25.75, the 52-week range is $12.14 to $27.07. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.04 EPS and $699.4 million in revenues.

PVH Corporation (NYSE: PVH): Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.09 EPS and $1.5 billion in revenues. Ay $88.40, shares are very close to the highs with its 52-week range of $51.15 to $90.64.

Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) has not been a big performer of late and the $33.50 handle today compares to a 52-week range of $30.34 to $45.34. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.77 EPS and $18.56 billion in revenues.

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Calendar, Earnings, Economy, The Week Tagged: APOL, BBY, CMC, FDO, GOL, LEN, MOS, PAYX, PBY, PVH, RHT, RIMM, SN, TEA, WAG

Taking Dividends to the Dollar Stores (FDO, DLTR, DG)

Administrator — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 20:53:43 +0000

Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (NYSE: FDO) is showing just how a secular trend is still going to rule the roost in retail. It was Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) hitting new all-time highs yesterday, and now it is Family Dollar’s day to shine (not at all-time highs).

The news is that Family Dollar is hiking its dividend to $0.21 from $0.18 per share per quarter. The gain is a 16% hike and this has Family Dollar shares higher by 2.8% at $55.25. This will take the 1.3% yield indication on the financial screens up to a better yield of about 1.5% for dividend investors.

It may not seem like a high yield, but the company has now claimed to have raised its dividend each year at a compound average rate of approximately 16%.

Dollar stores of today are really stores that sell items under $10.00 in most cases. Family Dollar pays a dividend, while Dollar Tree and Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) do not.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Consumer Goods, Corporate Governance, Dividend, Retail Tagged: DG, DLTR, FDO

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (F, GM, TM, EMC, GD, GMCR, POT, TIVO, UNF, PRGS, STZ, MON, FDO, LCAV, REE, NFLX, APKT, LPHI)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 21:04:24 +0000

Markets opened lower today and stayed in negative territory until mid-afternoon. Car makers reported December sales throughout the day, with Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) both showing gains in the morning. Toyota Motor Co. (NYSE: TM) posted lower sales in the afternoon. Developments in Europe did nothing to boost shares today, with a new rights issue coming from Italy’s UniCredit and a requirement for additional reserves against bad loans coming in Spain. Crude oil gained on word that Europe is nearing a decision to stop crude imports from Iran, possibly sparking a confrontation in the Persian Gulf. WTI crude is up 0.25% at $103.22/barrel and Brent crude is up 1.34% at 113.63/barrel. Gold is up about 0.8% at $1,613.20.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up about 21 points to 12,418.57 (0.17%), the NASDAQ fell less than 1 point (-0.01%) to 2,648.36, and the S&P 500 rose 0.02% or less than 1 point to 1,277.31.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) added to ‘US Focus List’ at Credit Suisse; General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD) raised to ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) reiterated ‘buy’ with $94 target price at Canaccord Genuity; Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) started as ‘underperform’ at National Bank; and Tivo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) raised to ‘overweight’ at Evercore Partners.

Earnings reports of note since markets closed yesterday include: Unifirst Corp. (NYSE: UNF) is up more than 3% at $59.83; and Progress Software Corp. (NASDAQ: PRGS) is down more than -11% at $17.55. Tomorrow sees earnings from Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ), Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), and Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) among others.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

LCA-Vision Inc. (NASDAQ: LCAV) is up more than 40% at $4.33. The laser vision correction system provider said that it performed more than 14,000 procedures in the fourth quarter, up 30% year-over-year.

Rare Element Resources Ltd. (AMEX: REE) is up more than 27% at $4.53. The rare earths miner announced that its resource at the company’s Bear Lodge project is 38% higher than previously believed.

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is up nearly 11% at $80.02. The video distributor reported that it streamed more than 2 billion hours of video in the fourth quarter. More details on this story are available here.

Acme Packet Inc. (NASDAQ: APKT) is down more than -19% at $25.65, after posting a new 52-week low of $25.20 early this morning. The networking company warned on earnings last night. We have more coverage here.

Life Partners Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LPHI) is down more than -15% at $5.38. The life insurance company has been accused of accounting fraud by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Here are the noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

7:30 a.m. – Challenger Gray & Christmas job-cut report

8:15 a.m. – ADP employment report

8:30 a.m. – Weekly initial unemployment benefits claims report

10:00 a.m. – ISM non-manufacturing index

10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas report

11:00 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report

4:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply reports

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Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: APKT, EMC, F, FDO, GD, GM, GMCR, LCAV, LPHI, MON, NFLX, POT, PRGS, REE, STZ, TIVO, TM, UNF

Whale Watching: Paulson & Co. Speared By Banks & Gold (BAC, COF, C, JPM, WFC, XL, NYX, GLD, TEVA, FDO, MGM, HPQ, AMCX, CEPH, COV, CVS, MYL)

Administrator — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 23:37:49 +0000

Paulson & Co. Inc. is another hedge fund group that investors use for Whale Watching, although this last quarter was not exactly kind to Mr. Paulson’s billions… The current 13F report shows total September 30, 2011 of $20.68 billion. While still huge, that is down from $29.057 billion just a quarter before. The biggest changes appear to be in the financial stocks and banks, as well as in gold. We have outlined come of the key changes of those and others below, including some new positions taken.

BANK STAKE GAINS: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) was listed as a larger position at 64.3+ million shares, higher by almost 4 million shares. Keep in mind that there are also positions in warrants due 2018 and 2019 in the position at BofA. Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) was raised slightly to 22,200,000 shares worth $879.7 million, but the old stake of 21,100,000 shares worth $1.09 billion.

BANK STAKES LOWERED OR ELIMINATED (partial): Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) was a much lower stake at 25.1 million shares worth $643 million versus a stake of 33.5 million shares worth some $1.395 billion a quarter earlier. J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) was not even listed as a position, yet it was about 4.7 million shares at the June 30 report ( but there is still a warrant position). Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is a lower position of 23,847,900 shares worth $575 million versus the prior position of 33,600,000 shares worth $942 million. XL Group plc (NYSE: XL) was lowered as well to 23.675 million shares worth $445 million versus his previous larger position of 28.23 million shares worth $620 million. NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYSE: NYX) was dropped from the positions entirely after being listed as 3 million shares a quarter before.

PAULSON’s OTHER LOWERED POSITIONS (partial): SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) was cut by more than one-third down to 20,273,540 shares (now worth $3.2 billion) versus 31,500,000 shares worth nearly $4.6 billion previously. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NASDAQ: TEVA) was cut by more than half to 1,976,900 shares worth $73.5 million from 4.18 million shares worth $201 million. The stakes in FAMILY DOLLAR STORES INC. (NYSE: FDO) and the stake in MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL (NYSE: MGM) were also lowered by Paulson. Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) was lowered to 15.2 million shares worth $340 million from 23.5 million shares worth $855 million a quarter earlier.

PAULSON’s NEW POSTIONS: AMC Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: AMCX) is a new position of 5,000,000 shares worth $159 million, making Paulson a zombie fan for The Walking Dead. Cephalon Inc. (NASDAQ: CEPH) is a new position of 3,684,000 shares worth some $297 million. Covidien PLC (NYSE: COV) is a new position of 2,000,000 shares with some $88.2 million. CVS Caremark Corporation (NYSE: CVS) was another new position of 2,500,000 shares worth almost $84 million.

Mylan, Inc. (NASDAQ: MYL) was a higher stake of 24,896,500 shares worth $423 million versus 14,940,000 shares worth $368 million previously.

Fortunately for Mr. Paulson, the markets have recovered handily since the end of September and the start of October.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Activist Investor, Banking, Mutual Funds Tagged: AMCX, BAC, C, CEPH, COF, COV, CVS, FDO, GLD, HPQ, JPM, MGM, MYL, NYX, TEVA, WFC, XL

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (T, BK, CELL, FDO, FRX, HWAY, JASO, LVLT, LOW, NFLX, RGLD, VECO)

Administrator — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 12:26:08 +0000

These are some of this Monday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this morning.

AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.
The Bank of New York-Mellon (NYSE: BK) maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Brightpoint, Inc. (NASDAQ: CELL) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (NYSE: FDO) named Growth & Income stock of the day at Zacks.
Forest Laboratories Inc. (NYSE: FRX) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Healthways Inc. (NASDAQ: HWAY) downgraded at William Blair, Barclays, and Piper Jaffray.
JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
Level 3 Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLT) Raised to Neutral at Citigroup.
Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) Raised to Buy at Janney.
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) downgraded by Reed Hastings and everyone left who was still positive.
Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) Raised to Overweight at HSBC.
Veeco Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: VECO) Cut to Neutral at Sterne Agee; Reiterated Sell ar Canaccord Genuity.

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JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: BK, CELL, FDO, FRX, HWAY, JASO, LOW, LVLT, NFLX, RGLD, T, VECO

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AGNC, AAPL, ADM, CALM, CAT, DLTR, FDO, HPQ, KIRK, LNC, MON, NAV, TIF, VECO)

Administrator — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 12:16:50 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this Monday morning.

American Capital Agency (NASDAQ: AGNC) Cut to Market Perform at JMP Securities.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Reiterated Outperform with $500 target at Credit Suisse.
Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) Started as Hold at Argus.
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: CALM) named value stock of the day at Zacks.
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays.
Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (NYSE: FDO) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) Reiterated Buy with $40 target at Argus.
Kirkland’s, Inc. (NASDAQ: KIRK) Cut to Underperform as bear of the day at Zacks.
Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE: LNC) Added to the U.S. 1 List at BofA/ML.
Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) Reiterated Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Navistar International Corp. (NYSE: NAV) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) Started as Buy at Stern Agee.
Veeco Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: VECO) Cut to Sell at Canaccord Genuity.

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JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AAPL, ADM, AGNC, CALM, CAT, DLTR, FDO, HPQ, KIRK, LNC, MON, NAV, TIF, VECO

Value Conundrum: Dollar Store M&A Creates High Premium in Sector (NDN, APO, KKR, BRK-A, WMT, DG, FDO, DLTR, BIG, TUES, M, TGT)

Administrator — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 14:25:04 +0000

99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN) was supposed to be acquired for somewhere between $22.00 and $24.00 per share according to reports in mid-September. The company was supposed to have interest from Apollo Global Management, LLC (NYSE: APO) in a bid that would have topped a prior buyout offer from Leonard Green & Partners at about $19.09 earlier in the year. The dollar store chain is being acquired, but by a group led by Ares Management LLC and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board in a deal valued at $1.6 billion in equity or $22.00 per share in cash. This changes some key observations about the dollar sector: we love the sector, but valuations are starting to look stretched even with its growth opportunities.

24/7 Wall St. has been calling for higher and higher prices in the dollar store sector and we have discussed consolidation in the other discount store and close-out stores. Dollar stores will be a secular winner over the years ahead unless we get a sudden return to a booming economy. We have even gone as far as to showing that dollar store chains are now where Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was back in the early 1990s. Private equity and other savvy investors like Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) have been active in this space.

Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) remains a Stock to Own for the Next Decade, but we are growing to accept the math here: shares hit a new all-time high of $39.22 today and the consensus price target is only $39.94. We have chatted this one up over and over since the stock was well into the $20 stock handles. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (NYSE: KKR) continues to sell stock that it still owns and we would just expect that the firm will continue to sell shares. It is when those price drops occur that you get your chance to enter the stock on the cheap. Please be advised, we expect that Warren Buffett will have added to this position.

There has also been buyout interest in Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO), up only marginally at $54.05 versus a 52-week range of $41.31 to $56.92. Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) has also been under private equity interest and its shares are up 2% at $80.92 and its stock hit a new high of $80.99 this morning. Analysts have consensus price targets of $56.87 for Family Dollar and $77.67 for Dollar Tree.

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) is a close-out store with many low-priced items but is no dollar store. There was a while where it was also considered takeover bait but that failed to materialize. At $34.33, the 52-week range is $27.82 to $44.44. Tuesday Morning Corp. (NASDAQ: TUES) is another close-out store and it is often overlooked because it has a mere $158 million market capitalization rate. At $3.71 after a 2.6% drop today, its 52-week range is $3.22 to $5.93.

99 Cents only is up 4.2% at $21.36 this morning. The news and the reaction may seem anti-climactic, but this brings an end to what was a long and arduous buyout process that has been going on since at least March of this year.

The growth of discounters and the growth of dollar stores says something awful about America. If these trends continue, it simply means we have more and more of the population at the lower-end of the spectrum seeking deals wherever they can be found. Still, business is business. If Warren Buffett and private equity giants have so much interest in this sector, ask yourself if there is money to be made. Again: Dollar Stores Are The Next Wal-Mart!

The sad thing is that there is now a market premium in the sector. Our favorite remains Dollar General, but it now trades at 15-times 2012 (actually January 2013) fiscal earnings estimates from Thomson Reuters. Another premium is there for Dollar Tree with a forward 2012 ratio of 17.5-times expected earnings. Family Dollar has a different fiscal year-end (august) but if we blend the estimates we get a stock trading at close to 14-times the same earnings estimate periods of the peers.

We will start to grow a bit more cautious on the sector of dollar stores if the price appreciates too much more. The fact that we and others are excited about the dollar store and close-out store sector does not bode for much growth and does not bode well for the middle class. These stocks now trade at richer multiples than many normal retailers: Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) trades at 9-times expected 2012 (January 2013) earnings estimates and Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) trades at 12-times the same period’s estimates. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) trades closer to 11-times next year’s expected earnings and that is after the stock enjoyed a significant pop of late.

For a comparison, 99 Cents Only at $22.00 per share values the company at about 17.5-times what was the expected 2012 (March 2013) fiscal earnings expectations. This still leaves some room higher for dollar stores, but this is a premium to peers and to the broad market. The secular trend is what is driving the value of dollar stores and investors are willing to pay a premium for that. The questions will start to arise if these premiums grow much further. How much of a premium can a discount sector command?

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Activist Investor, Apparel, Consumer Goods, Corporate Governance, Defensive Stocks, Economy, Editor's Picks, Mergers and Buy Outs, Private Equity, Retail Tagged: APO, BIG, BRK-A, DG, DLTR, FDO, KKR, M, NDN, TGT, TUES, WMT