Posts for Ticker ‘FINL’

Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (ANF, FRED, FDO, FINL, SEPR, VMED, WTNY, ZUMZ)

It is looking pretty thin in analyst calls ahead of the 3-day weekend, but these are some of the top research upgrades, downgrades, and initiations we have seen this Friday morning:

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) cut to Sell from Hold at Citi.
Fred’s Inc. (FRED) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.
Family Dollar Stores (FDO) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.

Finish Line (FINL) Started as Outperform at Wedbush Morgan.
Sepracor (SEPR) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Virgin Media (VMED) Started as Outperform by Credit Suisse.
Whitney Holding (WTNY) Raised to Buy at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
Zumiez (ZUMZ) Cut to Hold at KeyBanc.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: September 4, 2009 – 8:32 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , ,

Mini Earnings Season on Deck Thursday (PALM, ACN, MU, LEN, CAG, FINL, JTX, TIBX)

Money Stack ImageThursday is shaping up to be a miniature one-day version earnings season this week.  This is likely the last of the major earnings reports we’ll see for another three or four weeks until the real earnings season for Q2-2009 kicks off.  On deck are the likes of Palm Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM), Accenture Ltd. (NYSE: ACN), Micron Tech Inc. (NYSE: MU), Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN), ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG), Finish Line (NASDAQ: FINL), Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc. (NYSE: JTX), and TIBCO Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TIBX).  Below are preview summaries for each company’s expectations and supporting notes.
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Posted on: June 24, 2009 – 4:34 pm in Earnings, Housing, Technology Companies, , , , , , , ,

Top Analyst Upgrades (FINL, FTI, FL, BEN, GS, KEY, NDAQ, NOK, NRG, VIP)

These are the top pre-market analyst upgrades and positive research calls we have seen from Wall Street firms early this Thursday morning with more than two hours until the market opens:

Finish Line (FINL) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
FMC Technologies (FTI) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
Foot Locker (FL)  Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Franklin Resources (BEN) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Goldman Sachs (GS) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein.
KeyCorp (KEY) Raised to TopPick at RBC.
NASDAQ (NDAQ) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Nokia (NOK) Started as Outperform at Baird.
NRG Energy (NRG) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Vimpel Communications (VIP) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: June 4, 2009 – 6:18 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Thankfully, Cohen Stepping Down As CEO of Finish Line (FINL, GCO)

Finish_line_logoAnother one of 24/7 Wall St. CEO’s that need to go has come to fruition.  This morning Finish Line (NASDAQ: FINL) announced a management succession plan to replace co-founder Alan H. Cohen.  Unfortunately for shareholders, this is not a full replacement and he will still be involved in the company.  Glenn S. Lyon has been named successor to Cohen as CEO with effective December 1.  Cohen is going to remain Chairman of the Board of Directors.

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Posted on: October 3, 2008 – 7:52 am in Apparel, Management Change, ,

Goldman Sachs Drops Specialty Apparel Names (COLM, NKE, UA, LULU, FL, GCO, FINL, KSWS)

Goldman Sachs has noted that an analyst named Brad Cragin has left the firm, and his former targets and ratings in specialty apparel names are no longer in effect.  These are some of the specialty apparel names that have been dropped from coverage:

  • Columbia Sportswear Co. (NASDAQ: COLM),
  • Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE),
  • Under Armour (NYSE: UA),
  • lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU),

There were also many names in footwear and shoe retailing that were dropped:

  • Foot Locker (NYSE: FL)
  • Genesco (NYSE: GCO)
  • Finish Line (NASDAQ: FINL)
  • K-Swiss Inc. (NASDAQ: KSWS).

As a reminder, these are not true downgrades.  This coverage was dropped as the analyst has left the firm and it appears to be in a rapid enough manner that Goldman Sachs was not able to transition coverage away to another analyst.

Jon C. Ogg
May 20, 2008

Jon Ogg produces and edits the "10 Stocks Under $10" weekly newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: May 20, 2008 – 6:49 am in Analyst Calls, Apparel, , , , , , , ,

Genesco Braces For Earnings (GCO, FINL)

Thursday morning we’ll get to see earnings out of Genesco Inc. (NYSE: GCO). The estimates for the footwear company from First Call are $1.01 EPS on $485.82 million in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.21 EPS on $356.77 million in revenues. Estimates for fiscal Jan-2009 are $1.93 EPS on $1.61 billion in revenues.

What is interesting about this report is that this is the first earnings since it let Finish Line (NASDAQ: FINL) off the hook.  It did receive a large sum and even a chunk of Finish Line stock as part of the settlement, although that won’t likely be reflected for another quarter or so.  Shares were hit hard over this, but frankly it’s better off being on its own rather than under Finish Line.

Frankly, it’s hard to imagine that any trader will be expecting much at all since the company was so distracted.  That also means that anything that looks decent or actually good would run up shares.  This had 3.47 million shares in the short interest, which is about 9-days to cover and would allow this to act as a catapult for shares if the report is well received.

Analysts have an average price target of about $29.00. Genesco’s 52-week trading range is $19.36 to $54.15, and it saw a low of $19.38 today before closing at $19.79.  This will be one to watch because its stock has been battered and beaten so much over the failed merger.

Jon C. Ogg
March 12, 2008

Posted on: March 12, 2008 – 5:29 pm in Apparel, Earnings, ,

Finish Line, Better Lucky Than Good (FINL, GCO, UBS)

If there is one company that needed to get out of its crazy merger, it was Finish Line. Inc. (NASDAQ: FINL).  The company last year made a greatly leveraged buyout offer to acquire Genesco Inc. (NYSE: GCO) for terms that were maybe too high in general but that were definitely too high for what Finish Line could afford.  Despite a high fee having to paid, Finish Line is one lucky company today.  The two companies have settled after a long legal fight over this merger, Finish Line will give Genesco a stake in the company and pay a termination fee, and get out of its obligation to complete the buyout of Genesco.

We recently covered Finish Line in our weekly "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter with the note that if the company could not wiggle out of that merger that it was going to implode from the leverage and financing.  We had noted this one being in trouble even last year.  The worst part for common shareholders in this company is that the dual-class of shares keeps the bulk of the votes and control in hands of management.

We have even named its CEO Alan Cohen as one of our ten CEO’s that need to go.  This merger should never have been ventured into in the first place.  Even with Finish Line shares up more than 30% at $3.73, its 52-week high is $13.86.  Finish Line stock was north of $10.00 before its mouth became hungrier than its pockets could afford.

Genesco is the real winner here, although you wouldn’t know it if you look at the stock today with shares down nearly 20% at $24.50.  UBS (NYSE: UBS) and Finish Line will pay to Genesco an aggregate of $175 million in cash along with a number of Class A shares of Finish Line common stock equal to 12% of the total post-issuance Finish Line outstanding shares of common stock.  If the financial markets were not in disarray for deal financing, we’d probably be noting how the valuations of Genesco are compelling.

Jon C. Ogg
March 3, 2008

Posted on: March 3, 2008 – 10:40 am in Apparel, Law, Mergers and Buy Outs, Retail, , ,

CEO’s Axed Left & Right, Who’s Next? (BSC, SBUX, MMC, AMD, CC, BSX, FINL, CFC)

It seems that all of a sudden corporations are deciding to do the right thing by getting rid CEO’s that have put the companies and shareholders in untenable positions.

We called CEO James Donald of Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) last week as a CEO that needs to replaced by founder Howard Schultz.  Yesterday that happened.

Yesterday evening there were also reports from CNBC, The WSJ, The Financial Times, CNN, and many others that James Cayne (Jimmy) was being replaced as CEO at Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC).  He was our replacement in December for another CEO who got the ax so we’d still have our 10 CEO’s TO GO FOR 2008.  At midnight EST there was no official statement from the company but these reports when this widespread are almost never "an oops" where everyone is wrong (even if Dewey didn’t really win).  It appears that Cayne is staying on as Chairman, but keep in mind he’s in his 70’s.

Cherkasky of March & McLennan (NYSE: MMC) was the one that was fired in December and he was one of our 10 CEO’s to go, and one of the top ones. 

But we comprised a list of "actionable events" where a CEO being fired or "retiring" would likely act as cause for a stock rally so long as the companies have a replacement and action plan in place.  Bear Stearns shares were down 3% again Monday, but rose 2.3% in after-hours. We aren’t just trying to point out CEO’s, and we even gave a GUIDELINE FOR CEO’s TO GO.  We looked for stocks where we think new leadership would propel the shares.  So here is a summary of CEO’s we still believe need the ax headed their way:

  • We believe that Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) will retire as CEO this year, but he’ll probably retain the Chairman role.
  • Alan Cohen of Finish Line (NASDAQ: FINL) is one we have been against for some time now and this was before the last blow-up that we saw coming.  He has screwed the common shareholder situation now so bad that viability is an actual concern and trying to use their balance sheet or valuations is irrelevant.  He’s gotta pay. Just one problem though: he’s dug in deep with voting control because of a dual class of stock. He needs to go get a pair of running shoes at an East Coast store and go on a Forrest Gump endless run.
  • Gary Pruitt of McClatchy (NYSE: MNI) is responsible for heading up the acquisition of Knight-Ridder, and the stock has never been the same since.  The balance sheet is now more leveraged and his old glory days are long gone.  It is hard to blame a CEO in the newspaper business for much turmoil now because it is systematic, but this is currently the worst in the lot.  Here’s the full scoop on that one.
  • James Tobin of Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) is a CEO in the middle of  giant quagmire.  Not all of the problems at the company are his issue alone, but they are the worst performer in their sector and this acquisition of Guidant was such a dud that the BSX-GDT combined company is now worth less than Boston Scientific was before it went after Guidant.  Here’s the rest.

There is also a whole slew of technology companies in need of a new regime. Here are the 247WallSt.com Technology CEO’s Who Need to Go in 2008 (ALU, AMD, BBND, CC, SYMC).  Out of these two we can’t decide which one of two is more deserving to get the ax nor which will be the first one marched out.  Hector Ruiz of Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) and Philip Schoonover of Circuit City (NYSE: CC) have done in their hearts what the best thing and their efforts and leadership ended up being the bomb.  Military pilots turned investors would say their tenable positions are now FUBAR.  They should both meet on the golf course this weekend and see which one can score a better exit package.  Ruiz will probably have a better exit package as his pay with options is potentially huge.  Both of these guys are probably done.

If you want a potential list of other CEO’s or key managers that could face choppy waters you can see our master list of TURNAROUNDS THAT HAVEN’T TURNED AROUND.

Join our open email list to hear previews about other management changes, value stocks, special situations, IPO’s, restructuring, M&A, merger-arb spreads, and more.

Jon C. Ogg
January 8, 2008

Posted on: January 8, 2008 – 5:01 am in Management Change, , , , , , , , , , ,

2008 Corporate Resolutions: Firing Your Bad CEO’s (BSC, BSX, CFC, FINL, MMC, MNI)

2007 has been a volatile year in the stock market, but there are many key technology CEO’s who just aren’t making a passing grade. 247WallSt.com has issued a brief list of some recognized CEO’s in technology whose shareholders would likely be rewarded if the CEO was axed or stepped down.  We think these CEO’s have a great shot at getting the ax in 2008.

We decided to run a GUIDELINES FOR CEOs TO GO.  Most of these CEO’s have a recent history of disappointment, and calling a CEO out can’t be just over stock prices. The CEOs have proven their need to be called on to go. Out of 24/7 Wall St.’s CEO list for 2007, six of the eight that we called on to be fired were fired or finally forced out.  Here’s the full list, with a brief sentence and a link to the full explanations for each:

  • Alan Cohen of Finish Line (NASDAQ: FINL) has proven ineptitude if you have watched this last week.  We named him on the list and showed what may happen to that stock before last week’s debacle.  The founder needs to bring in new blood.  Here’s the full scoop.
  • Gary Pruitt of McClatchy (NYSE: MNI) is responsible for heading up the acquisition of Knight-Ridder, and the stock has never been the same since.  The balance sheet is now more leveraged and his old glory days are long gone.  Here’s the full scoop on that one.
  • James Tobin of Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) is a CEO in the middle of  giant quagmire.  Not all of the problems at the company are his issue alone, but they are the worst performer in their sector and this acquisition of Guidant was such a dud that the BSX-GDT combined company is now worth less than Boston Scientific was before it went after Guidant.  Here’s the rest.
  • Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) is a different call here.  We think Angelo will survive if he wants to, but what we think will happen in 2008 is that he will announce his retirement as CEO to bring in more of a day to day operator.  We think Mozilo will remain as non-executive Chairman and here’s why.

Michael Cherkasky of Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC) was one of our top candidates to leave his CEO role, and the company finally decided to act ahead of 2008.  But they didn’t heed the writing on the wall and HAD NO REPLACEMENT.  Here was the full scoop on that.

So we already had on of the CEO’s TO GO make the firing squad even before 2008 started.  We do actually have a replacement candidate, although we admit it is an obvious one that may be too easy:

  • James Cayne ("Jimmy") of Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) is probably not going to be sitting with this Chairman AND CEO role for very much longer.  We understand that he’s well liked, and frankly it’s hard to pick him out of all the other obvious financial companies that are lenders, brokers, traders, guarantors, and the like that had major CDO or mortgage related losses that hurt the company.  But he is already in his 70’s, has spent much time out of the office, recently had health issues, had a reporter ‘pot smoking’ accusation, and there are too many other reasons we think that Bear Stearns will want to replace him.  Unfortunately for him, he probably won’t be running Bear Stearns that much longer. 

We also ran a separate list of five different TECHNOLOGY CEO’S WHO NEED TO LEAVE that include CEO’s of AMD, BigBand Networks, Circuit City, Alcatel-Lucent, and Symantec.

We’ll see what happens in 2008.  Six of our eight that we called on to go in 2007 back in December 2006 were forced out in 2007.

You can subscribe to our free email distribution list to see more previews on other mergers, restructuring, turnarounds, spin-offs, IPO’s and more.  Happy new years to all, even to this lot of CEO’s that need to go.

Jon C. Ogg
January 1, 2008

Posted on: January 1, 2008 – 11:07 am in Management Change, , , , , ,

52-Week Low Club (December 28, 2007)

Some of these stocks hit 52-week lows and recovered off of lows so they won’t have a low close.  But these did all touch or breach the 52-week lows.  At the end we also broke out retail stocks, financial stocks, airlines & transports, and hotels.  A separate report could have been compiled for REIT’s as well, but many of those were left off because of room or volume. There were enough 52-week lows today that you might even wonder if there had been a mini-crash in the markets.  Here are the 52-week lows for December 28, 2007:

  • Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD)… imagine if the company got Hector Ruiz to leave.
  • American Greetings (NYSE: AM)…again.
  • AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN)… new entrant.
  • Carmike Cinemas (NASDAQ:CKEC)
  • ChipMOS (NASDAQ:IMOS)
  • Corp. Office Property (NYSE: OFC)
  • Cryptologic (NASDAQ: CRYP)
  • Diebold (NYSE:DBD)
  • Fortune Brands (NYSE:FO)
  • Group 1 Auto (NYSE: GPI)
  • Infinera Corp. (NASDAQ: INFN)
  • Introgen (NASDAQ:INGN)
  • Japan Smaller Cap Fund (NYSE: JOF)
  • Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ: LAMR)
  • Legget & Platt (NYSE: LEG)
  • Martha Stewart (NYSE: MSO)
  • Marvell Tech (NASDAQ:MRVL)
  • Mattel (NYSE:MAT)
  • McClatchy (NYSE:MNI)
  • Micron Tech (NYSE:MU)
  • NGAS Resources (NASDAQ:NGAS)
  • Nortel Networks (NYSE:NT)
  • Owens Corning (NYSE:OC)
  • Omnicare (NYSE:OCR)
  • Prestige Brand (NYSE: PBH)
  • PC-Tel (NASDAQ:PCTI)
  • Ruth’s Chris (NASDAQ:RUTH)
  • SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK)
  • Theravance (NASDAQ:THRX)
  • Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO)
  • Wendy’s (NYSE: WEN)
  • World Fuel Services (NYSE:INT)
  • U-Store-It (NYSE:YSI)

Retail Stocks on 52-week lows: Ann Taylor (NYSE:ANN), Big Lots (NYSE:BIG), Borders Group (NYSE:BGP), Bon Ton Stores (NASDAQ:BONT), Chico’s FAS (NYSE:CHS), Finish Line (NASDAQ:FINL), Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ), Macy’s (NYSE: M), Office Max (NYSE:OMX), Petsmart (NASDAQ:PETM), Stage Stores (NYSE:SSI)

Financial stocks on 52-week lows: Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Canseco (NYSE: CNO), Discover Financial (NYSE: DFS), Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), Fortress Investment (NYSE: FIG), MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI), Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM)… urgh!  When does it stop?

Airlines/Transports on 52-week lows:  Airtran Holdings (NYSE: AAI)…again.  Did they launch a Friends Die Free rewards plan?  Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL), Fedex (NYSE:FDX), Mesa Air (NASDAQ:MESA), Northwest Airlines (NYSE: NWA)… near $100 oil is a real pain.

Hotels Hitting 52-week lows: Host Hotels (NYSE: HST), Lasalle Hotel (NYSE: LHO), Starwood Hotels (NYSE:HOT), Sunstone Hotel (NYSE: SHO), Wydham Worldwide (NYSE:WYN).  Maybe these all wish they could get the private equity buyers back in the sector.  If only they could still borrow.

These CEO’s new year’s resolutions are all the same: "In 2008 I want to keep my stock off the 52-week low lists."

Jon C. Ogg
December 28, 2007

Posted on: December 28, 2007 – 3:01 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

10 CEO’s That Need To Leave in 2008: Finish Line’s Alan Cohen (FINL, GCO)

Finish Line (NASDAQ:FINL) is a company in need of a new action team.  Alan Cohen is co-founder, Chairman, and CEO.  All companies reach a certain point where the founder needs to step aside to allow the business to be run by a more capable and more nimble operator.  That time has arrived for Finish Line. 

Mr. Cohen is unlikely to leave entirely since co-founder and as a holder, so if he cares about outside shareholders and cares about his own wealth he will decided to retain the Chairman role and turn the keys over to someone else.

This poorly crafted leveraged buyout of Genesco (NYSE: GCO) was the last big disappointment and the company was going to over-leverage itself if that came about.  Finish Line is using the "material adverse effect" argument because Genesco’s results failed to achieve target, although a slowing consumer spending environment may not be considered "material" enough in a current court case.  The fact that Finish Line said the company is now not generating enough cash flow is something it should have considered before it wanted to leverage its books up in what ended up becoming a bidding war.

We even evaluated Finish Line as a potential buyout candidate of its own back in 2006 (prior to Special Situation Newsletter) but decided to close that off the list for a small gain.  It was a good thing we had a change of heart there.  We questioned whether or not management would actually ever sell in the first place, but we didn’t expect a leveraged buyout for a more diversified play.

This stock recently traded at 12.75-times FEB-2008 earnings and only at about 8-times the FEB-2009 estimate, although it is quite likely that these estimates do not reflect a slower consumer spending environment.  Earnings estimates have been trimmed lower over the last 60 days.  It also doesn’t really consider a potential ongoing case with an even larger potential verdict against the company, although that outcome won’t be known for a while.  Our thesis for Alan Cohen is not subject to the verdict whether it wins or loses against Genesco.

The company has been a habitual spotty earnings performer.  At the end of a day when you are merely a retailer that caters to sport shoes and apparel that has to be continually replaced, how many excuses are there for a loss of more than two-thirds of your stock value.  The major growth days as far as numbers of new stor opportunities are somewhat behind the company, although some of that may be because there are more than enough sporting shoes and apparel stores around in major cities.  This maturity is another reason the company needs some fresh blood to help navigate through choppier waters than when this was a major growth story.

Shares are up from recent lows even after it warned of a loss, but with a history of spotty earnings performance compared to estimates it is just more of the same.  Shareholders are also confused by the dual class structure of the stock with there being more than 8-times the A-shares as B-shares and the B-shares have a ten-to-one ratio for voting.

With the structure of those B-Shares affecting the vote, Mr. Cohen doesn’t have to listen to shareholders and doesn’t have to do the right thing.  In fact, he could hang on for another decade if he wants to regardless of share performance.  An activist investor would be a big help to Finish Line, but any activist would know that their entire efforts would likely be falling on deaf ears.

GUIDELINES FOR OUR CEO’s TO GO SELECTION

Jon C. Ogg
December 12, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: December 12, 2007 – 8:40 am in Apparel, Management Change, ,

Other In-Trouble Mergers After Affiliated Computer (ACS, TRB, CMLS, GCO, PPH, FINL, BX, COMS)

Yesterday morning 24/7 Wall St. covered how the buyout for Affiliated Computer Services (NYSE:ACS) was for all practical purposes looking like toast, and we wanted to see which other pending deals were at risk.  A much more detailed review went to our free email newsletter subscribers yesterday morning, and all of these spreads have widened out today.  The news from last night confirmed this buyout was dead and today the Chairman received notice that the independent directors would leave their posts as per his demands.

But there are many other mergers out there that have misleading merger-arb spreads that are indicative of potential trouble as far as a closing at all or at least a risk of the stated merger price being sent to a reduced buyout price. Almost all of these mergers are different than the ones from September that we deemed at risk.

Tribune (NYSE:TRB) $34 buyout from Sam Zell and employees….
Shares reached almost $30.50 yesterday and today’s $29.90 is representative of a 13.7% merger-arb spread for a merger that shareholders have already approved.  24/7 Wall St. has given our own prediction for a buyout price that Sam Zell would likely offer if financing gets tight in this LBO-OPM (leverage buyout, other peoples money) offer.  We are looking at updating this in our New Media/Old Media subscriber letter next week.

PHH Corp. (NYSE:PHH) $31.50 buyout……
With a near-50% merger-arb spread consider this one toast or revised far lower or maybe only even by one of the buyout partners.  The Blackstone (NYSE:BX) buyout is supposedly to be revisited momentarily, although JPMorgan and Lehman that were financing a portion of the deal have (as of last look) maintained a $750 million shortfall on the debt portion here.  General Electric (NYSE:GE) was Blackstone’s buyout partner and the deal as originally intended was going to send the fleet services group (corporate car and truck fleets) to GE and the mortgage business to Blackstone. 

Genesco (NYSE:GCO) $54.50 buyout……
The $1.5 billion footwear acquisition that had been agreed to in June was scheduled to close last month, but would-be acquirer Finish Line (NASDAQ:FINL) and investment bank UBS stalled on the deal because of concerns over Genesco’s financial performance after the $54.50 buyout deal was announced.  At $45.40 there is a 20% merger-arb spread.  24/7 Wall St.’s belief is that Finish Line is in no position to do the deal whether it "states uncomfort and concerns" or not.

3Com (NASDAQ:COMS) $5.30 buyout…..
3Com’s buyout is not at risk over shareholder revolts nor over financing.  This one is at risk over China’s Huawei holding a stake after the Bain Capital buyout over "national security concerns" because many US and partner government agencies still relying on 3Com’s communication equipment. Senators are reviewing the deal and saber rattling here.  Boy, those must be some old systems.  24/7 Wall St. is reviewing this one now for the Special Situation Investing Newsletter since at $4.86 this has only a 9% merger arb-spread for an at-risk deal on a company that management can’t fix on its own.

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ:CMLS) $11.75 management-led buyout…..
The $1.3 Billion MBO agreement announced on July 23, 2007 has been a quiet one.  When announced this was almost a 40% premium.  At $10.12 today, there is still a 16% merger-arb spread.  The Board of Directors approved the deal and recommended that shareholders vote for it, but the financing from Merrill Lynch Global Private Equity and Merrill Lynch Capital Corporation "could" be up for interpretation.  Jim Cramer actually called this a takeover candidate before the MBO was announced.  Cumulus is also a name 24/7 Wall St. has under review for its New Media Old Media subscriber newsletter.

Jon C. Ogg
November 1, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the subscriber-based Special Situation Investing Newsletter where we cover buyout candidates, restructurings, spin-offs, and more.  We recently issued our "Small Cap Internet Watch List" PART 1 of 2 that showed a list of smaller web related properties we think could be acquired under the right circumstances, and we even listed which predator companies could or would acquire them under the right circumstances.

Posted on: November 1, 2007 – 2:44 pm in Mergers and Buy Outs, Private Equity, , , , , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club

Pier 1 Imports (PIR) Analyst lowers estimate. Stock falls to $4.41 from 52-week high of $9.06.

Standard Pacific (SPF) Homebuilder taken down by more bad sector news. Falls to $6.12 from 52-week high of $30.52.

Vonage (VG) Loses patent suit by Sprint (S). Drops to $1.20 from 52-week high of $7.89.

Borders (BGP) Selling books in stores no longer much of a business. Down to $12.40 from 52-week high of $24.19.

Panacos Pharmaceuticals (PANC) Company downgraded and CFO leaves. Falls to $1.86 from 52-week high of $7.23.

The Finish Line (FINL) Involved in dispute about buying Genesco (GCO). Drops to $4.54 from 52-week high of $14.97.

Acxiom (ACXM) Concern over financing for private equity buy-out. Down to $18.81 from 52-week high of $28.25.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: September 25, 2007 – 5:29 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , , , ,

New 52-Week Lows (July 20, 2007)

STOCK TICKERS: ABK, ACA, BZH, LEN, DHI, RYL, CC, BX, FIG, FINL, HGSI, HSY, HW, JNY, NLS, REDE, TRMP, UBET, TZOO, WB

The DJIA may have hit 14,000 earlier.  A pullback here, some bad news there, and all of a sudden there are still many little piggies being sold off.  Here are some of the main stocks hitting 52-weeks lows today, and it is even an edited-down list:

AMBAC (ABK) $80.05
Whoops, insuring and guaranteeing debt.

ACA Capital (ACA) $6.40
Yep, still no word out of the company yet.  Trading and guaranteeing CDO’s and derivates isn’t what it was cracked up to be, and we still don’t know their real situation.

Beazer Homes (BZH), Lennar (LEN) DR Horton (DHI), Ryland (RYL)
One of its comps calling for crummy to 2009…ouch.

Circuit City (CC) $13.63
You knew this one wasn’t bottomed out yet.

Blackstone (BX) $25.95
Schwarzman isn’t responsible for this added drop, but he’ll do for the blame.

Fortress Inv. Group (FIG) $22.28
This hedge fund, boy…are they in private equity and CDO’s?  Not an intraday low, but its lowest close.

Finish Line (FINL) $7.88
Glad I removed it from the BAIT SHOP of buyout candidates when I did, this one must have 10 piggies in each of their shoes.

Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) $8.61
Maybe genomics is such a 1990’s term.

Hershey (HSY) $47.84
This one was very overvalued for something you eat, so it squirts.

Headwaters (HW) $16.43

Jones Appareal (JNY) $26.62
Weren’t these guys supposed to sell out?

Nautilus (NLS) $9.14
When will a growth exercise and fitness company that warned be touted as a value stock?

Redenvelope (REDE) $5.05
Still don’t know anyone who has used this online e-tailer.

Trump Entertainment (TRMP) $9.50
The Donald’s casino operator can’t find a bottom without reaching under his back.

YouBet.com (UBET) $2.04
Bet this one isn’t done?

Travelzoo (TZOO) $23.00, prior intraday low was $23.16; high was $40.00+.
Online travel carnage continues….maybe France, Hong Kong, and Japan aren’t worth it.

Wachovia (WB) $49.98 close..prior 52-week low was $50.32.
Banks, they need someone to "Watch-ova-ya"

Jon C. Ogg
July 20, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: July 20, 2007 – 3:38 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club

Beazer Homes (BZH) No surprise here. Down to $22.50 from 52-week high of $48.60.

KB Home (KBH) Down to $37.44 from 52-week high of $56.08.

Journal Register (JRC) Another victim of newspaper woes. Drops to $4.22 from 52-week high of $8.60.

Verso Technologies (VRSO) Provider of network solutions gets delisting notice. Drops to $.62 from 52-week high of $1.52.

The Finish Line (FINL) Retailer has loss. Down to $8.45 from $14.97.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: July 5, 2007 – 2:55 pm in Uncategorized, , , , ,

Blackstone (BX) Leads The 52-Week Low Club

Blackstone (BX) Investors still worry about slowing private equity and tax issues. Shares fall to $28.75 from post-IPO high of $38.

American Home Mtg (AHM) Forecasts second quarter loss on delinquent mortagages. Also downgrade by Friedman Billings Ramsey. Drops to $17.40 from 52-week high of $36.40.

Beazer Homes (BZH) More fall-out in home building markets. Drops to $24.02 from 52-week high of $48.50.

Lennar (LEN) Another home builder. Down to $36.37 from 52-week high of $56.54.

Office Depot (ODP) Projects Q2 earnings decline and falling same-store sales. Drops to $30.10 from 52-week high of $44.69.

Circuit City Stores (CC) Continuing concerns about slow sales at electronics firm. Down to $15.04 from 52-week high of $29.31.

Wachovia (WB) One of nation’s largest banks, research firm Punk, Ziegel & Co says that "The poor performance is not due to poor performance by the company. It is due to the poor positioning of the stock by management." Interesting theory. Shares down to $50.84 from 52-week high of $58.80.

Peregrine Pharmaceuticals (PPHM) Company to sell $22.5 million worth of shares. Drops to $.72 from 52-week high of $1.49.

Spreadtrum Communications (SPRD)  Chinese designer and marketer of semiconductor for mobile phones just had IPO. Down to $14 from $17.

Panacos Pharmaceuticals (PANC) HIV drug research firms raises $20 million in debt. Shares down to $3.11 from 52-week high of $7.23.

The Finish Line (FINL) Athletic shoe retailer says same-store sales look bad. Drops to $8.98 from 52-week high of $14.97.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: June 29, 2007 – 3:17 pm in Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , , ,

Finish Line Acquires Genesco; Too Much Diversity? (GCO, FINL)

It is always a bit puzzling when you see a $600 million company make an acquisition of a company for $1.5 Billion.  This morning, Finish Line (FINL-NASDAQ) has announced that it will acquire Genesco (GCO-NYSE) for $54.50 per share in cash valued at a total $1.5 Billion.  The Finish Line expects the transaction to be accretive to its net income, before consideration of incremental amortization resulting from the transaction, in the first full year after closing.

It will also now move from a sporting apparel company to having positions across multiple footwear and apparel categories, including athletic, sport casual, lifestyle, brown shoe and headwear: Finish Line, Man Alive and Paiva as well as Journeys, Journeys Kids, Shi by Journeys, Underground Station, Jarman, Johnston & Murphy, Hat World, Lids, Hat Shack, Hat Zone, Head Quarters, Cap Connection and Lids Kids.

The Finish Line expects the transaction to be funded through approximately $11 million in cash on hand and up to $1.6 billion in financing provided by UBS, consisting of a Revolving Credit Facility, a Senior Secured Term Loan and a Senior Bridge Facility.

Genesco is up 9% pre-market and Finish Line has not yet traded.  By the looks of the brands involved, it is possible that the company may turn around and sell some of the units to widdle down the debt used to finance the buyout.

Jon C. Ogg
June 18, 2007

Posted on: June 18, 2007 – 7:26 am in Apparel, Bait Shop, Mergers and Buy Outs, ,

Pre-Market Stock News (June 7, 2007)

(A) Agilent reiterated guidance after completing Stratagene buyout.
(ADCT) ADC Telecom trading up 3% after posting $0.35 EPS vs $0.24 estimates.
(ANN) Ann Taylor May s-s-s -4.6% versus -3.1% estimate.
(ATVI) Activision will take $66.7 million non-cash and pre-tax charge for options back-dating.
(BEBE) Bebe Stroes May s-s-s -3% versus -2.8% estimate.
(BHI) Baker Hughes rig count rose 23 to 1,007 versus April and up from 920 in May 2006.
(BMET) Biomet’s private equity buyout raised to $46.00.
(CALL) CallWave announced the ‘industry’s first’ Visual Voicemail gadget for Google Personalized Homepage.
(CHINA) CDC Corp. appointed two new directors.
(COST) CostCo s-s-s were +7% in May, above 5.5% estimates.
(DJ) Dow Jones may have some interest from owner of Philadelphia Inquirer.
(DSCO) Discovery Laboratories initiated a Phase II clinical trial evaluating the use of Surfaxin in children up to two years of age suffering from Acute Respiratory Failure.
(ESLT) Elbit Systems awarded $110 million order by Thales UK to provide ISTAR capability for UK armed forces.
(FINL) Finish Line guided Q1 earnings below estimates and now sees a loss.
(HGSI) Human Genome Sciences shows positive final results Of Phase 2b trial of Albuferon
(IDEV) Indevus Pharmaceuticals reports positive data from Phase III NEBIDO trial for development for the treatment of male hypogonadism.
(INFN) Infinera Corp. IPO priced 14M shares at $13.00, above the 410.00 to $12.00 range.
(IMMC) Immunicon has released highlights from podium presentations made at ASCO meeting.
(JOSB) Jos. A. Banks may s-s-s +13.5% versus +4% estimate.
(JCP) JC Penney May s-s-s -2% vs +0.3% estimates.
(JWN) JW Nordstrom’s May s-s-s +6.3% versus +2.6% estimate.
(LTD) Limited Brands May s-s-s _2% vs -1% estimate.
(MSFT) Microsoft has entered a cross license pact with LG Electronics for further development of current and future product lines.
(OPTT) Ocean Power Tech awarded a $1.7 million Navy order for its PowerBuoys.
(SFD) Smithfield Foods $0.34 EPS vs $0.34e; named new CFO.
(SHRP) Sharper Image May s-s-s -8% vs -13% estimate.
(UTIW) UTI Worldwide $0.18 EPS vs $0.16e.
(WMT) Wal-Mart s-s-s +1.1% vs 1.2% estimate; sales were +1.3% after fuel.
(YANB) Yardville National gets $35.00 buyout from PNC.

Jon C. Ogg
June 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 7, 2007 – 7:20 am in Pre-Market Activity, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,