American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) over 151.6 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.
Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK) was previously a new position a quarter ago but this quarter was listed as 1,793,915 shares and is SLIGHTLY SMALLER than the 1,992,759 shares at the last report.
Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) right at 200 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.
Comdisco Holdings (NASDAQ: CDCO) roughly 1.5 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is roughly 29.1 million shares, SAME AS LAST QUARTER but lower than the past.
Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 4,333,363 Shares, SAME AS last quarter after having lowered it before.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) is still just 421,800 shares; SAME AS before but lowered from 1.276 million shares originally.
Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) 1.74 million, SAME AS BEFORE after having decreased from earlier.
General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE) 7.777 million shares; SAME AS before but does not include the huge preferred shares from late in 2008.
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) 1.51 million shares, SAME AS before.
Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR) was kept at 636,600 shares as the same as last quarter but this is way down from over 7.78 million more a year ago.

Many Changes…

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) used to be 5 million shares, but Buffett SOLD ALL BOFA SHARES.
Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) used to be 1.889 million shares, but BUFFETT SOLD ALL B&D SHARES.
Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) was already a lower position at 186,897 shares down from 12 million before, BUT BUFFETT SOLD ALL REMAINING SHARES.
Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV) had already been lowered to 3.91+ million shares, but BUFFETT SOLD ALL FISERV SHARES.

BUFFETT HOLDINGS J to R

BUFFETT HOLDINGS S to Z

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JON C. OGG

These positions include ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), Becton, Dickinson and Company (NYSE: BDX), Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV), Nalco Holding Company (NYSE: NLC), Torchmark Corporation (NYSE: TMK), and USG Corporation (NYSE: USG).  A couple of these stocks were above their implied target prices, but some only had upside of 1% to 3%. This compares to Buffett’s largest implied upside picks which had more than a 10% hurdle.

We used the closing price as of  December 6 for the analysis.  We gave a percentage upside based on how much the stocks had to move to reach the Thomson Reuters consensus price target for a year from now.  We reviewed the prospects of each company which includes a brief description of the firms, how the shares have performed versus a 52-week range, and analyzed the dividend yields of each corporation.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) closed Monday at $64.18, above the oil giant’s consensus price target of $62.81.  Buffett kept his stake in the last quarter unchanged but that is after cutting his position over the past several quarters. He has indicated he might sell the stock for tax purposes but he has retained a  modest ownership position.  Conoco at least offers a 3.4% dividend yield.  Buffett admitted that the timing of this investment was wrong, but the good news is that shares are up more than 50% from the lows in 2009.

Costco Wholesale Corporation’s (NASDAQ: COST) stock is one of the few that has consistently risen lately.  It almost always trades at a premium over its peers, but that has not undermined its valuation.  After a $69.19 close on Monday, shares hit a 52-week high of $69.41.  Does it matter then that analysts have a consensus price target of $68.61 a year out?  The dividend yield here is only 1.2%. It is worth noting that shares peaked just above of $70.00 in late-2007 and in early 2008 .

Becton, Dickinson and Company (NYSE: BDX) is the first of several stocks that still have upside but that is so small that it is hardly worth mentioning.  Monday’s close for BD was $80.85, and its 52-week trading range is $66.47 to $81.65.  The consensus price target for one-year out is $82.23.  That implies an upside of only 1.7%, which is below its 2% dividend.  The shares still managed to challenge 52-week highs recently. The 52-week trading range is $66.47 to $81.65.

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) over 151.6 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) 5 million shares; SAME AS last quarter.
Bank of New York Mellon Corp.n (NYSE: BK) is a NEW POSITION at 1,992,759 shares.
Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) is 1.889 million shares, SAME AS LAST QUARTER after having seen more than 1 position raise before then.
Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) right at 200 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.
Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is a LOWER POSITION and almost entirely eliminated as the report lists only 186,897 shares down from 12 million before.
Comdisco Holdings (NASDAQ: CDCO) roughly 1.5 million shares, SAME AS before.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is roughly 29.1 million shares, SAME AS LAST QUARTER after having cut and cut the stake.
Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 4,333,363 Shares, SAME AS last quarter after having lowered it before.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) 421,800 shares; SAME AS before but lowered from 1.276 million shares originally.
Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV) is already a LOWER POSITION at 3.91+ million shares, down from a previously new position of 4.4 million shares.
Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) 1.74 million, SAME AS BEFORE after having decreased from earlier.
General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE) 7.777 million shares; SAME AS before but does not include the huge preferred shares from late in 2008.
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) 1.51 million shares, SAME AS before.

Buffett listed no shares of Carmax Inc. (NYSE: KMX), which had been 7,725,900 shares. Consider Carmax a SOLD POSITION.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is NOT LISTED and the word is out that Goldman Sachs has been hung up from being able to pay Buffett back because of the rules governing TARP banks and the debt repayments or dividend payments.

BUFFETT HOLDINGS H to R

BUFFETT HOLDINGS S to Z

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, key analyst calls, and more.

JON C. OGG

In addition to The Unusual Suspects, we have several key issues to consider.  On Friday, there were many large cap stocks hitting 52-week lows and many of these looked and felt counter-intuitive on the surface.  There were also billions of dollars in new share buyback plans announced this last week on top of many buyback updates and expansions.

Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) has been battered along with all for-profit education stocks due to reimbursement rate, recruiting tactics, post-graduate expectation reality checks, student loan default rates and more.  Apollo has also experienced SEC issues.  Despite an Asensio report slamming it Friday, Apollo actually closed up on a down day Friday and the company appears to have passed the criteria set in the initial regulatory tests.  This was one of the 5 options trades in the sector we wrote about for Investorplace.com as outlier bets for potential exponential returns (low premiums for out of the money calls) if the regulatory pressure eases even a fraction that could lead to an upside surge in share prices.

AU Optronics Corp (NYSE: AUO) is getting press it does not want.  The Taiwanese maker of thin film LCDs had its CEO indicted over price fixing in June, but this last week CEO Lai-Juh Chen was ordered to surrender his passport this week so he cannot leave the country.  At $9.02, the ADRs 52-week trading range is $8.68 to $13.30.

Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) reports earnings this coming Tuesday.  Shares were at $12.84 before it put itself up for sale, and they popped to $15.31 the next day in early August.  The high was $16.74 since then but shares closed at $15.53 on Friday. A proxy situation and earnings will make the sale process a key focus here this coming week.  With a $914 million market cap and a 52-week trading range of $11.89 to $25.07, the big question comes down to what it can fetch or if it can fetch a bid.  RadioShack ran into troubles in selling its brick and mortar retail system, so the question is if a book brick and mortar player can compete against Amazon and Apple in the future.

BHP Billiton plc (NYSE: BHP) reports earnings on Wednesday.  The company’s offer for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is what everyone will be focusing on.  The belief by many is that the now hostile tender will need to to $160 per share or higher.  The CEO’s payday will be one of the larger paydays in history if this occurs.  Investors will be looking very closely for the merger details and US investors are unlikely to pay attention to BHP’s actual earnings report.

BP plc (NYSE: BP) may have been out of the spotlight over the last three weeks now that its top-kill well blockage seems to have worked.  This coming Wednesday it may be in the news again as the President’s commission on the BP oil spill meets.  At $36.40, BP shares are down over 10% from the highs after recovery.

Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CPIX) saw shares fall 8.8% in the after-hours session down to $5.49 on over 60,000 shares in the after-hours session.  This one fell because it disclosed that the FDA is extending the review period by three months of its liver drug candidate called Acetadote.  Average volume is only about 100,000 shares and the market cap was a mere $123 million.  The prior 52-week trading range was $5.51 to $17.24, so if this holds it will mark a new 52-week low.

Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV) is one to watch ahead as this was the newest common stock addition from Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett in the stock portfolio. Buffett bought a new position of 4.4 million shares of common stock during the second quarter and shares closed up over 3% week over week.  This one has now moved on to more investor radars and volume was lighter than you might have expected due to this being the slow days of August.  Berkshire’s full holdings are here.

Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ) may be running out of time or shareholder patience.  This Sanofi-Aventis offer has remained on the table with what is effectively nothing but silence.  Henri Termeer may be running short on investor patience here, even if this is obvious stalling to see if competing bids will come.  The due diligence here is the big risk he is taking.  If a company decides that Genzyme has continuing manufacturing woes and if Sanofi gets impatient, Genzyme could be reminded that there is a 15% hot-air premium in the shares.  Reuters says the silence may indicate talks are taking place.  Investors better hope that stance is right.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: JAZZ) got crushed on Friday after the close.  It failed to win an FDA advisory panel backing for its fibromyalgia drug candidate.  Shares fell 28% to $7.05 versus a 52-week trading range of $6.01 to $13.95.  This one traded over 1 million shares in the after-hours on Friday so it will be very active on Monday.

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) was listed as the #1 pole position chart in IBD this weekend, for the second week in a row. The week before saw a 12% gain but the stock actually closed down this last week.  Shares closed at $129.96 versus $132.26 the Friday before and versus a high print this last week of $140.90.  We don’t really agree that this represents solid strength, although the market weakness was a part and IBD has a history of years and years here.

Novell Inc. (NASDAQ: NOVL) has earnings on deck this coming Thursday and it recently trimmed its third quarter revenue range to $197 to $199 million versus prior guidance of $205 to $210 million. The company said its guidance reflects what it believes is customer uncertainty associated with Novell’s ongoing review of various alternatives to enhance stockholder value.  In short, that new hoped-for alternative buyout has not materially come about.  We predicted in May that the $5.75 buyout might need to be closer to $7.00 to secure the deal.  Shares are still at $5.81 and the 52-week trading range is $3.84 to $6.36.  One to watch for sure.

Symantec Corp. (NASDAQ: SYMC) is an ongoing stock to watch after the Intel-McAfee merger this week.  Symantec was in deep $%^& before the merger after it warned.  It just can’t ever get its act together.  Now there is a dual risk and opportunity ahead.  If Intel can convince PC makers that the McAfee bundle into hardware and into software is better than software alone, the Symantec could find its Norton anti-virus business getting ripped apart.  If Symantec can convince PC makers and device makers that it is now more important than ever to double-up on security providers then it has a huge opportunity.  The company’s history sort of, well it stinks.  This week’s gain was almost 12% to $13.80, which is the highest close since its $14.67 close before earnings and its earnings warning in late-July.

Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC) went through its big breakup in June of 2007, but Standard & Poor’s endorsed it all over again.  S&P is readmitting Tyco back into the S&P 500 Index.  Shares closed up 5.3% at $38.70 on more than triple-normal trading volume with more than 19.9 million shares trading hands.  The date it will be added is after the close on August 26 and we expect heavy trading volume to continue as indexers have to add in shares.  There are still millions of shares that need to be purchased going into the S&P 500 Index addition.

Vermillion, Inc. (NASDAQ: VRML) was a top active trader alert we asked “How long can a trend last?” because there had been 13 straight days of losses and was at $11.80 when the mudslide started.  It closed up 1.7% at $6.03 on Friday.  If this trend continues, Vermillion will have to change names to “Vermin.”  One day is no victory, but that is a concerning chart that should attract both bears and bargain hunters ahead.  Volume is still very low, but this is a new battleground stock that we won’t assign any upside or downside targets to.

VocalTec Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: CALL) has been on fire and we want to revisit this one since our first alert one month ago.  When we saw that VocalTec merged with the owner of MagicJack, we could not help but to recognize the potential here even though it went through a reverse stock split.  That jumped to roughly $15.00 on the closure of the merger and it has steadily climbed higher and higher.  Shares closed at $38.00, which is close to 150% appreciation.  It keeps rallying because the CEO has been given permission to increase ownership to over 25% and there is even a share buyback of $12 million.  The company’s own investor relations site links to NASDAQ, which now says that the market cap of the combined companies after the share issuance is $445.9 million based on 11.736 million shares.  This one now trades at a multiple of revenue guidance rather than a discount to revenue guidance.  We can’t call for a short sale but those who are sitting on big gains should at least consider taking the cost basis out of the trade here so that you can still have upside and you leave assured returns in the name.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) is surging after rejecting a $130 buyout offer.  Shares are up 28% at $144.00 on well over 2 million shares.  China Agritech, Inc. (NASDAQ: CAGC) closed at $15.28 and shares are trading up 8.5% at $16.59 on 40,000 shares.  Origin Agritech Limited (NASDAQ: SEED) closed at $8.33 and shares are up over 8% at $9.02 on more than 20,000 shares.

Fiserv Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV) is indicated up 2% above $51.00 this morning after Warren Buffett added the stocks as a new position inside Berkshire Hathaway’s public stock holdings.

MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ: MNKD) is down over 6% at $6.41 after having been down more than 8%… This is over an offering of up to 8,000,000 shares of its common stock in a stock loan to Bank of America.

Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX) is up 17% at $0.61 after positive earnings after items; Revenue was $76.8 million versus $70.1 million a year ago.

Pactiv (NYSE: PTV) is higher on reports that it may be acquired by the Rank Group from New Zealand. Shares are trading up over 8% at $33.65 on about 100,000 shares.

Research in Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) is lower and may challenge the $50.00 per share mark again.  We have seen nearly 50,000 shares trade hands and shares are down by more than 1% at $50.25.

Rick’s Cabaret International, Inc (NASDAQ: RICK) is indicated down 10% after a double-digit drop last night after earnings were $0.09 EPS and revenues were $19.93 million versus estimates of $0.20 EPS and $20.34 million.

Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. (NYSE: TOO) is down 5% at $22.00 on somewhat active volume after releasing that it plans to offer 5,000,000 common units for general partnership purposes, which includes funding vessel acquisitions.  It also plans to repay a portion of its outstanding credit facility debt.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) over 151.6 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) 5 million shares; SAME AS last quarter.
Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) is 1.889 million shares, UP FROM 1.744 million shares last quarter and was a raised position last quarter too from 1.5 million shares before and versus 1.2 million before that.
Carmax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) is 7,725,900, SAME AS BEFORE; had been reduced from 8 million shares the prior quarter and versus 9 million shares a quarter before that.
Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) right at 200 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.
Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) 12 million shares, SAME AS before.
Comdisco Holdings (NASDAQ: CDCO) roughly 1.5 million shares, SAME AS before.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is roughly 29.1 million shares, A LOWER STAKE than the prior 34.179 million shares and yet another cut from 37.7 million two quarters ago and 57.43 million and 62.485 million before that.
Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 4,333,363 Shares, SAME AS last quarter but that is after it had been lowered from 5.254 million before.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) 421,800 shares; SAME AS before but lowered from 1.276 million shares originally.
Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV) is a NEW POSITION of 4.4 million shares.
Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) 1,740,231 SHARES; SAME as before, but a decrease from earlier.
General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE) 7.777 million shares; SAME AS before but does not include the huge preferred shares from late in 2008.
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) 1.51 million shares, SAME AS before.

BUFFETT HOLDINGS H to R

BUFFETT HOLDINGS S to Z

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is NOT LISTED but that is because it is a preferred stock with warrants. Buffett says he is holding and still has it.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, key analyst calls, and more.

JON C. OGG

24/7 Wall St. asked Audit Integrity to put together a list of companies traded on US exchanges with market caps of more than $3 billion that do particularly poorly in the areas  of corporate governance, detailed disclosure of high-risk events including M&A and restructurings, revenue and expense recognition, and asset and liability valuation.

Based on the Audit Integrity model, 24/7 created a list of the twenty companies that Wall St. can trust the least.  Among the companies that the analysis flagged are Altria (NYSE:MO), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS), GE (NYSE:GE), Blackstone (NYSE:BX), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT),  Wells Fargo (NYSE:WMT), and Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW)

The list:

Methodology:  The Audit Integrity Accounting and Governance Risk (AGR®) rating is a forensic measurement of the transparency and reliability of a corporation’s financial reporting and governance practices. The focus of AGR analysis is on identifying the measures associated with fraud, and quantifying those risks for interested stakeholders to company stock prices, securities litigation, and major restatement probabilities.

Audit Integrity applies over 100 accounting and governance metrics to a company’s publicly-filed information. The resulting calculation produces the AGR, a percentile score ranging from 0 to 100, with corresponding ratings from Very Aggressive to Conservative.

Companies rated Very Aggressive or Aggressive have proven to be much more likely to face class action litigation and financial restatements, and to suffer severe equity loss. Conversely, those companies that have been consistently rated Conservative are considered the most trustworthy.

AGR significantly improves the predibility of traditional risk models.

The AGR and its underlying metrics are used by regulators, auditors, insurance companies, investment managers, and corporations, and are often incorporated in reporting by major financial media.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Amedisys (AMED) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) Started as Outperform at Baird.
Comcast (CMCSA) Started as Overweight at JPMOrgan.
CSX (CSX) Started as Outperform at Baird.
Dyncorp (DCP) Started as Buy at SunTrust.
Fiserv (FISV) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
General Maritime Corp. (GMR) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
HealthSouth Corp. (HLS) Started as Outperform at Baird.
St. Jude Medical (STJ) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Time Warner Cable (TWC) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.

JON C. OGG

• Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG) Downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies.
• Fidelity National (NYSE: FIS) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
• Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
• Genentech (NYSE: DNA) Raised to Overweight at Lehman.
• KBW (NYSE: KBW) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
• Nike (NYSE: NKE) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
• Pearson plc (NYSE: PSO) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
• Satyam Computer Services (NYSE: SAY) Cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley; Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
• Sherwin Williams (NYSE: SHW) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
• Sierra Wireless (NASDAQ: SWIR) Target cut to $20 from $25 at CIBC.
• Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) Cut to Sell at UBS.
• WIPRO (NYSE: WIT) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.

Jon C. Ogg
July 21, 2008

The company has announced that it will sell a majority interest in insurance business operations to Trident IV, a private equity fund managed by Stone Point Capital LLC.  You can take that it gave that operation an implied new value of $1 Billion, because the company will receive a $510 million payment as net proceeds for a 51% stake. The equity valuation would be lower though, as it lists the proceeds being $205 million in equity and $335 million in debt.  Fiserv noted that this will free up capital and will allow it to focus on financial products.

Simultaneously, the company has announced that it will turn around and repurchase up to 10 million shares of common stock in a repurchase program of roughly 6% of its float.  Based upon yesterday’s close that would be $453 million if it used the entire sum at that fixed theoretical price. 

The company has said this action will dilute earnings in 2008 by $0.02 to $0.03 and it is backing GAAP EPS of $3.28 and non-GAAP EPS of $3.40.  First Call has estimates as $3.34 EPS on a non-GAAP basis.

Its 52-week trading range is $44.16 to $58.32.  Shares are indicated higher by roughly $1.00 in pre-market trading, although there are no shares that have yet traded hands.

Jon C. Ogg
July 2, 2008