Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) cut to Sell from Hold at Citi.
Fred’s Inc. (FRED) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.
Family Dollar Stores (FDO) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.

Finish Line (FINL) Started as Outperform at Wedbush Morgan.
Sepracor (SEPR) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Virgin Media (VMED) Started as Outperform by Credit Suisse.
Whitney Holding (WTNY) Raised to Buy at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
Zumiez (ZUMZ) Cut to Hold at KeyBanc.

JON C. OGG

Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ) is on suicide watch.  The market has forgotten to remind Genzyme that it’s a bull market again.  We said last week that it was on the verge of hitting 52-week lows.  It did…. Here was our BioHealthInvestor.com analysis, and that is what is hurting the stock.  The market is trading Genzyme as though another big shoe is going to drop.

Two rumors were around this week that we took note of in Biotech-Land. Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPPI) rose over 6% Friday, but the volume of 2.7 million shares was not indicative of an imminent deal.  Options were active, with 5,285 of the AUG $7.50 CALLS traded vs. open interest of 6,880.  The other one worth noting was Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CBST) as it had some loose buyout rumors this last week as well.  The stock is an old favorite of ours for the possibilities of a buyout with its Cubicin and treatments for hospital-borne diseases and infections.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) NYSE: BRK-B) did very well on earnings, if you use the Buffett calculation of including gains.  Earnings were $3.3 billion or $2,123.00 EPS and revenues were $29.6 billion.  Non-GAAP earnings not including gains were $1,147.00 EPS.  Thomson Reuters had a figure of $1,238.00, but the estimates are operations estimates rather than the gains and losses estimates.  The results included a large derivatives gain as well.

Fred’s Inc. (NASDAQ: FRED) was a Barron’s winner.  The weekly financial bible gave it a very positive article with some noting that it could go from $12 to $16 and one noting that it trades at roughly half the multiple of peers.

GSI Commerce Inc. (NASDAQ: GSIC) is likely to have a 10 million share secondary offering this week. Approximately 81% of the shares being sold are by backer Softbank and by its affiliated holders and insiders.  In short, its 24+ million share float is about to get a lot larger and it will be of little to no benefit to GSI itself.  Amazingly enough, shares held up all week and closed out at $18.44 (just under teh $18.75 high of the last 52-weeks).

We doubt anything is imminent here on this front, but we want everyone to consider the notion that Leap Wireless (NASDAQ: LEAP) and MetroPCS (NYSE: PCS) could reconsider a merger after that failed merger from 2007.  This is on the heels of a Sprint and Virgin deal, and this merger might come from need rather than greed.  Both companies had very poor showings after earnings this last week.

A tiny company called Opexa Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPXA) signed a stem cell technology sale agreement with Novartis A G (NYSE: NVS) that could ultimately be ten-times larger than the company itself.  This one closed up over 300% higher, that is three-hundred…. on the deal.  It is still just a $2.03 stock, but this one just got on the map as over 7.9 million shares traded hands.

Earnings season is winding down and we have a few key stocks left:

• Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is due with earnings on Tuesday with estimates around -$0.08 EPS and $955 million in revenues.
• Also on the same day we get earnings from cult stock Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN).  The Dendreon earnings themselves won’t matter, it is the increased cash expenses and if we get any new status on its FDA path to the approval of PROVENGE for a last line of defense against prostate cancer.
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is also on deck on Thursday with estimates of $0.86 EPS and $103.1 billion in revenues.

Another house keeping issue for Uncle Sam…. the FOMC has a two day meeting on August 11 and August 12 with a decision on rates at roughly 2:15 PM EST on the 12th.  With a current 0.00% to 0.25% target range, there is effective a zero-percent chance of a rate hike according to Fed Fund Futures.  But the same Fed Fund Futures look for a minimum of 0.25% in December and those Fed Fund Futures get pretty close to calling for an almost certainty of 0.50% Fed Funds by Feb. 2010.

Lastly, we’d make an alert to our readers that on Monday we will be running a huge story at BioHealthInvestor.com on the recent heating up of the drug wars.  The diabetes drug war that is.  There have been a ton of fresh developments just in the last week and this goes much deeper than our original “next $170 billion opportunity in blockbuster drugs” we did for eight of the top diseases and conditions affecting America.  This one is solely around the diabetes and obesity treatments coming down the pipe.

JON C. OGG
August 8, 2009

Fred’s Inc. (NASDAQ: FRED) said that its same-store sales were up by +1.9% based on increased bargain shoppers.  No volume or trading indications have been seen yet, but there is still a while before the open.

Gymboree Corp. (NASDAQ: GYMB) said it saw a mid-teens percentage drop, but this is much better, or less-bad, than the 20% to 25% drop it was expecting.  The company raised its earnings guidance to $0.50 to $50.56 EPS rather than a prior forecast of $0.18 to $0.25 EPS.  The company attributed product reception and promotional campaigns as contributing to margins.  Its shares are up over 16% and flirting with the $25.00 mark this morning.

Hot Topic (NASDAQ: HOTT) is continuing to win from its ‘Twilight’ ties with a gain of +7.1% n same store sales.  The company now expects to earn money with $0.01 to $0.02 EPS rather than a loss to gain of -$0.01 to $0.01 EPS.  Shares are up over 3% to north of $12.00.

J.C. Penney Company (NYSE: JCP) posted a drop of 7.2% in same-store sales.  While this is a big drop, it is less than elsewhere and less than estimates of double-digit drops.  The loss of the quarter is now seen at -$0.05 to -$0.10 rather than a loss of -$0.20 to -$0.20.  Shares are up 5% at $23.80.

The TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX) said its same-store sales rose 2% rather than an expected drop of about 2% seen by analysts.  Its total sales remained flat at $1.7 billion, but the discount seller now sees earnings at the high end or slightly above its previous forecasts of $0.32 to $0.38 EPS.  Shares are now up over 4% at $27.85.

JON C. OGG

• American Water Works (AWK) Started as Buy at Societe General.
• Black & Decker (BDK) Raised to Buy at UBS.
• Energy Recovery (ERII) Started as Buy at Piper Jaffray.
• Fred’s (FRED) Raised to Outperform at William Blair.
• Lennar (LEN) Raised to Buy at UBS.
• Public Storage (PSA) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
• Wal-Mart (WMT) Raised to Outperform at William Blair.

Jon C. Ogg
November 25, 2008

Enbridge Inc. (ENB) and Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (EEP) had a pipeline blow late yesterday that has oil up as much as $4 today; two workers were killed; the explosion and fire on an Enbridge Energy Partners’ crude oil pipeline approximately three miles southeast of Enbridge’s Clearbrook, Minnesota terminal is apparently one of the Canadian pipelines that comes down to the U.S. and it is a supply risk.
Fred’s (FRED) $0.12 EPS after $0.02 "timing event" versus $0.14 estimate; hired Merrill Lynch to help it review strategic alternatives after receiving interest from multiple parties.
HJHeinz (HNZ) $0.71 EPS vs $0.69 est.; put guidance at higher end of range for next quarter.
Lululemon (LULU) trading up 10% after beating earnings and raising guidance.
Medco Health (MHS) announced a 2 for 1 stock split.
Men’s Wearhouse (MW) trading down 12% after disappointing earnings.
Sigma Designs (SIGM) traded up 14% after posting $0.79 EPS vs $0.54 estimates.
Ultralife Batteries (ULBI) receive a $2.6 million order from the U.S. Defense Department.
VeraSun Energy (VSE) and US BioEnergy (USBE) are going to merge operations into a single company; USBE shares up 8%.
Vimpel-Comm (VIP) trading up 5% after beating earnings expectations.
WellCare Health Plans, Inc. (WCG) traded up 10% after-hours after announcing that on November 21, it received an executed Contract between the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. This one had been battered after that FBI raid killed the stock in recent weeks.

Jon C. Ogg
November 29, 2007