The three major US stock indexes opened marginally higher this morning as more European countries come out in support of a eurobond, a proposal Germany has flatly declined to discuss. The impasse weighed on European markets and the weight crossed the Atlantic when US markets opened today. The only new data point in the US today was better-than-expected reading on Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (our coverage here). The US dollar index rose today, now up 0.07% at 82.406. The GSCI commodity index is up fractionally at 618.78, with commodities prices mixed. WTI crude oil is trading up 0.12% at $90.77/barrel, and Brent crude trades up 0.31% at $106.88/barrel. Natural gas fell -4.4% today to $2.53/thousand cubic feet. Gold is trading up 0.52% today, at $1,567.90/ounce.

At 2:00 p.m. ET, the DJIA is down about 45 points at 12,484.68 (-0.36%), the NASDAQ is up more than 3 points (0.12%) at 2,842.72, and the S&P 500 is down -0.02% or less than 1 point at 1,320.43.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Ebay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) maintained as ‘buy’ with a target price of $44 at BofA/ML; Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) cut to ‘hold’ at KeyBanc; Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) raised to ‘buy’ at Deutsche Bank; Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) raised to ‘outperform’ at Oppenheimer; and First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) maintained as ‘buy’ with a target price of $30 at BofA/ML.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: America’s Car-Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) is down -7.8% at $41.52; Mentor Graphics Inc. (NASDAQ: MENT) is down -12.7% at $13.28; Post Holdings Inc. (NYSE: POST) is up 6.8% at $29.89; and Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO) is up 8.8% at $5.42.

On Tuesday, we are scheduled to get earnings reports from American Superconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: AMSC), DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), Ku6 Media Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: KUTV), Sanderson Farms Inc. (NASDAQ: SAFM), Seanergy Maritime Holdings Group Corp. (NASDAQ: SHIP), and Shanda Games Ltd. (NASDAQ: GAME).

We’ve also reviewed this week some potential value stocks among major oil companies, gold & silver miners, conglomerates, industrials, retail, semiconductor, and solar stocks.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

The Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) is down -38.9% at $1.57. The clothing retailer failed to reach a deal with a potential private equity buyer.

Verifone Systems Inc. (NYSE: PAY) is down -15% at $38.27. The electronic payment systems company forecast a weaker-than-expected third quarter.

Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) is down -3.8% at $31.78. The social network company continues to seek a floor for its stock price.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. US markets are closed Monday to observe the Memorial Day holiday. We have also noted the following events on the schedule for Tuesday (all times Eastern):

• 9:00 a.m. – S&P Case-Schiller housing price index
• 10:00 a.m. – Conference Board consumer confidence survey
• 10:00 a.m. – State Street investor confidence index
• 10:30 a.m. – Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
• 11:30 a.m. – 3- and 6-month bill auction

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

Have a great long weekend.

Paul Ausick

Aflac Inc. (NYSE: AFL) Maintained Buy but cut target price down from $75 to $63 at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.

Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. (NASDAQ: CRZO) Reinstated as Neutral with $30 target at Credit Suisse.

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) Maintained Buy with $44 target at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.

E-House China Holdings Limited (NYSE: EJ) Reinstated as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Reiterated Buy with $30 target at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.

The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: HAIN) Started as Buy at SunTrust Robinson Humphreys.

Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) Cut to Hold at KeyBanc.

PACCAR (NASDAQ: PCAR) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.

Rogers Communications (NYSE: RCI) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.

Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.

SurModics, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRDX) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC) Maintained Neutral with $20 target at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.

Here were Thursday’s Five Highly Unusual Upgrades and Downgrades which really stood out or which moved stocks.

If you enjoyed the top analyst upgrades and downgrades, you can join our free email newsletter that includes analyst summaries each morning sent right to your inbox.  We also cover top issues such as IPOs, special financial exclusives, mergers and more. Sign up in the box below.

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

JON C. OGG

Chinese solar makers Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) both announced results for their first quarters. Suntech managed to beat revenue expectations, posting sales of $409.5 million versus a consensus estimate of $406 million. But the total reflects a decline of -34.9% sequentially and 53.3% year-over-year. The company posted an EPS loss of -$0.74 compared with an estimate of -$0.50. Gross margins fell to just 0.6%, down from 9.9% in the fourth quarter of 2011 and 20.8% in the same period a year ago.

Trina did even more poorly. Revenues totaled $350 million versus a consensus estimate of $398.5 million and the loss per ADR totaled -$0.42 compared with an estimated loss of -$0.29. Gross margins came in at 13.3%, but the company’s operating margin fell to -11.4%, somewhat better than the operating margin of -14.4% in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Profits and margins for both companies include reserves taken to pay the anti-dumping duties recently approved the US Department of Commerce.

Of the solar makers, only Renesola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) put up solid enough numbers for the first quarter to enjoy any kind of bump in share price. First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) posted a surprise EPS loss for the first quarter and SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) missed on revenues while coming in slightly ahead of EPS estimates. Chinese solar maker LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) posted horrible results in its fourth quarter and expected results for the first quarter don’t look good either. Neither do estimates for JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) or Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE).

Suntech said it expects shipments to increase by 20% in the second quarter and gross margins to improve to 3%-6%. The company maintained its full-year shipment guidance of 2,100-2,500 megawatts.

Trina forecast shipment growth of about 31%-37% in the second quarter and gross margins of around 10%. For the full year the company expects to ship 2,000-2,100 megawatts.

Shares of Suntech have fallen about -2.5% by early afternoon today to $1.93 in a 52-week range of $1.70-$8.50. Trina’s shares are up 0.75% at $5.37 in a 52-week range of $5.20-$23.64.

Paul Ausick

Commerce preliminarily determined that Chinese producers/exporters sold solar cells in the United States at dumping margins ranging from 31.14 percent to 249.96 percent.

By ITA’s definition, “dumping occurs when a foreign company sells a product in the United States at less than fair value.”

Two Chinese companies, Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL), will have to pay “dumping margins” (tariffs) of 31.22% and 31.14%, respectively. An additional 59 companies and subsidiaries, including Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ, Hanwha Solarone Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: HSOL), Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Jinkosolar Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS), and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), will pay dumping margins of 31.18%.

The government of China has already rejected the findings, and the Associated Press reports that a Commerce Ministry official said, “The U.S. ruling is unfair, and the Chinese side expresses its extreme dissatisfaction.”

In reality, the Chinese got off easy. The dumping margins are set at the absolutely lowest end of the scale. In March the Commerce Department hit the Chinese makers with tariffs of less than 5%, far below the 100% tariff demanded by SolarWorld and its co-complainants.

The Commerce Department even left the Chinese makers a way out:

Modules, laminates, and panels produced in a third-country from cells produced in the PRC are covered by this investigation; however, modules, laminates, and panels produced in the PRC from cells produced in a third-country are not covered by this investigation.

So China can move its solar cell manufacturing to Thailand or the Philippines or Vietnam, re-import the parts to China for final assembly, and sell the finished goods in the US without penalty, and presumably at whatever price the manufacturers want.

The largest part of the US solar industry is also likely to be dissatisfied by the preliminary ruling. Companies like Real Goods Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: RSOL) and SolarCity — which has filed for an IPO — have been able to turn low prices for solar panels into a healthy installation business. US solar makers First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR), and MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) all own their own project management and installation businesses as well.

Yesterday’s ruling by the ITA is a not much more than a loss of face to China’s makers, while it could be a real job-killer in the US. Anyone who believes that manufacturing solar cells and modules in the US will become a massive industry probably also believes in the Easter Bunny.

A final ruling on the case is not due until November, and appeals are possible — and likely — fairly quickly.

The ITA’s preliminary ruling is available here.

Most Chinese solar stocks are trading higher in the pre-market this morning. That should tell you all you need to know about this ruling.

Paul Ausick

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) has been a total disaster, but short covering and bottom-fishing traders are snapping up shares.  After an all-time low of $13.75 this week, shares recovered to $14.92 on Thursday on the most active volume in two weeks (over 10 million shares).  Shares are indicated above $15.00 for Friday but we will see if this can hold. SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) recovered more than 10% on Thursday after a recent low of $4.94 with a close of $5.59 on over 4 million shares (most since Feb 17 at 7.3 million shares).

One potential problem to consider is that the tariffs could inadvertently impact some of the U.S. producers of solar panels as well.  The issue is that many components involved in making these PV panels also come from China.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is a loser in this tariff effort.  Shares were at $2.60 just last Friday and the ADRs closed down at $2.13 on Thursday.  Shares are indicated higher on Friday but we will have to see how it pans out.  Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) is another loser with its ADR closing at $6.08 Thursday after having been at $7.50 just last Friday.

LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) closed lower on Thursday at $2.91, but this is actually in-line with prices just last Friday and its 52-week range is $2.54 to $7.90.

GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: GTAT) is often lost in the shuffle as it is on the technology side of the solar PV process.  It is also in LED technology.  Shares closed down at $4.49 on Thursday against a 52-week low of $4.24.  The 12 million shares traded on Thursday was the highest trading volume seen since last August.

If you really want to know what the trend is on a global-solar basis, just follow the Guggenheim Solar (AMEX: TAN).  This ETF closed down yet again at $18.35 on Thursday after closing at $19.21 the prior day and against a $20.61 close last Friday.

Unfortunately, the solar sector has its share of woes and pain.  Austerity, expiration of tax credits, a lack of cost-effectiveness, and other issues are going to be present for the time being whether tariffs exist or not.

JON C. OGG

News on Wednesday night showed that Chief Financial Officer Mark Murphy is leaving the company to rejoin a position at Praxair.  The news is on the heels of previous report showing a major loss due to poor solar materials sales. Does the notion that MEMC named Brian Wuebbels as executive vice president and CFO help?  Not really, even if Murphy will act as a “consultant” during the transition period.

Losing a CFO is not as bad as losing a founder and not as bad as losing a CEO, but the problem with losing a CFO is that Wall Street assumes that the CFO has lost faith in the future of the company. In some cases, it could mean something far worse.  With MEMC shares having fallen from over $90 during teh solar boom down to under $2.00 it is easy to wonder if things are going from just awful to even worse.

So, here is where we cannot help but wonder about MEMC’s future.  Thomson Reuters expects a loss of -$0.10 EPS in 2012 on sales of $2.6 billion.  But almost magically in 2013 the consensus is back up to $0.45 EPS on $2.83 billion in sales.  The revenues in 2011 were $2.715 billion, in 2010 they were $2.239 billion, and 2009 revenues were $1.163 billion.  The problem is that sales in the solar sector are getting harder and harder to come by and the solar sector is in total disarray.  The company’s latest loss and decline in revenues also reflected weak demand in the semiconductor wafer markets.  Yep, MEMC is facing a war on two fronts and its non-GAAP margins are getting squeezed.

The sector leaders are looking like hell frozen over.  First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is effectively at all-time lows if you discount a small 2% gain today.  SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is down over 75% since Total SA (NYSE: TOT) bought the controlling interest.

If the company was on the verge of a great turnaround then the CFO would seemingly not have pulled the ripcord on the way down here.  The company has what looks to be ample cash reserves to fund operations, but it also has significant amounts of long-term debt. This situation just feels like it is one which is going from awful to far worse.

MEMC is in serious trouble.  Still, it is one of these outfits that has enough cash to fund operations for probably quite some time, but its core businesses are challenged and the company has so far been unable to get its operating costs in order.  It has also forecast a weaker demand for semiconductor materials in 2012 as well as a lower price per watt in solar.  Our big concern is that the projections may have been based entirely upon the CFO forecasts just a week or so ago, and his departure would bring even the lower guidance into question.

For whatever this is worth, Wunderlich Securities cut its target down to $1.00 after it maintained a SELL rating after the most recent earnings.

It is too soon to declare that MEMC will be a total implosion.  It is even possible that there could be a turnaround of major proportion coming here.  Unfortunately, that does not appear to be the case any time in the immediate future.

So you tell me in a poll, no “I don’t know” answers allowed…

JON C. OGG

When the company reported fourth quarter earnings in March, it set expectations for the first quarter fairly low: shipments of 400-420 megawatts of modules and wafers and revenues of $180-$190 million. Now it might be that Renesola was managing expectations, but based on today’s results and the fourth quarter’s report, the company appears to have won its first battle with managing costs. That solution has so far eluded First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE), and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO). Jinkosolar Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS) is scheduled to report earnings later today and analysts expect an EPS loss of -$1.07 on revenue of just $158.9 million, about half the revenue of a year ago.

In March, Renesola’s CEO said this about his company’s cost structure:

Although we achieved our year-end cost-reduction targets, which placed our cost structure among the lowest in the industry, it was not enough to offset extremely low solar wafer and module prices.

In the first quarter the company’s module manufacturing cost fell to $0.74/watt and Renesola expects to lower that to $0.70/watt in the second quarter. Half the cost savings will come from lower wafer costs and the rest from lower pricing for polysilicon. The company is vertically integrated and makes its own wafers and polysilicon, which helps keep its costs down.

For the first quarter Renesola had positive gross margin of 9% on its solar modules while its overall gross margin was negative, -3.8%. That’s not good, but it’s a lot better than the negative gross margin of -28.1% the company posted in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter of 2011 gross margin rang in at 21%. Those were the days.

Shares in Renesola are up nearly 12% in pre-market trading, at $2.00, in a 52-week range of $1.45-$8.83.

Paul Ausick

Solar panel makers like First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), and Yingli Green Energy Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) have watched panel prices erode about -50% in the last year. Polysilicon prices have dropped -70% and companies like MEMC simply can’t reduce costs fast enough to keep up with collapsing demand and a race to the bottom on polysilicon prices.

MEMC’s adjusted gross margins for the quarter were down to 10% from 11.6% in the previous quarter and full year 2011 margin of 18%. Perhaps the worst news of all for the company is that its SunEdison division which designs and installs solar PV systems installed new projects totalling 49 megawatts in the first quarter, down -55% sequentially and -11% year-over-year.

The company also forecast somewhat weak revenue growth for the second quarter and a revenue drop for the full fiscal year. The company said its sales volume for the full year would be more than 400 megawatts and that second quarter volume would be 130-170 megawatts. Taking a midpoint of 150 megawatts and first quarter sales of just 47 megawatts, that estimate indicates expected growth in the second half of the year. MEMC better hope so.

Shares of MEMC are down -24% today, at $2.47 after posting a new 52-week low of $2.46 earlier. The prior 52-week range was $3.20-$11.31.

Paul Ausick

24/7 Wall St. screened out selective short interest data with the latest changes from the settlement date of April 30, 2012 versus the prior April 13, 2012 in shares of the following: Alcatel Lucent S.A. (NYSE: ALU); Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: STD); Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC); Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS); Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN); Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND); First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR); Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR); Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN); Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI); LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD); Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX); RadioShack Corporation (NYSE: RSH); Research in Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM); and Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI).   Does this make for a “Short-Sell in May and go away!” theme?  The short interest changes are for the April 13 versus March 30 settlement dates, with selective color added if applicable:   Alcatel Lucent S.A. (NYSE: ALU) saw another rise in the short interest but this gain was massive by over 25% to 28.67 million shares in the short interest.  Based on its earnings botch, the short sellers made some real money here.

Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: STD) is not one of our usual short interest names but investors are back to betting against Spain and the PIIGS all over again now that austerity measures are being fought publicly.  The prior gain was a whopping 214% gain in the short interest to 55.7 million shares and the newest gain was only 2.5% to 57.1 million shares.

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) is back to seeing a rise in the short interest after a prior drop.  Short sellers lifted the short interest by 9.9% to 142.3 million shares.

Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) saw a small increase ion its short interest, which you know helped to exacerbate that pop from the Microsoft deal while activist investors press on here.  The short interest rose another 3.7% to 19.768 million shares.

Westinghouse Solar is a designer and manufacturer of integrated rooftop solar power systems, and CBD is an Australian diversified renewable energy company.  Margaret Randazzo is currently the CFO of Westinghouse Solar and she was also appointed Interim CEO as former CEO Barry Cinnamon is leaving the company.  CBD anticipates that it will shift to a U.S. listing upon the closing of the merger and it plans to list its common shares on that NASDAQ.

The press release noted that the initial meetings about a merger took place in December of 2011.  It is now May and we cannot help but to wonder whether or not other solar companies have considered mergers.  Here are two of the easy observations in the broader solar sector:

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is now at all-time lows and has remained profitable so far despite shares being down 90% from last year’s highs.  It is now only worth about $1.4 billion and it would be considered a busted IPO if the move happened faster.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is already majority-owned by Total SA (NYSE: TOT) and it trades at about 75% under where Total took its stake of almost $1.4 billion.  The entire market cap including the majority stake held by Total is only $628 million.

LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is in China and now only worth $360 million.  There have been takeover rumors before in this name but the China base and woes in China right now probably make it difficult for a non-Chinese player to acquire the company.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is a name which used to come up regularly in the takeover rumor category, although it has been so battered that getting approval might be impossible after 95% losses from the peak.  It is now worth only about $764 million in market cap.

We would note that Energy Conversion Devices was also always a ‘merger rumor name’ in solar but it went bankrupt.  There is no assurance that other solar mergers are on the horizon, but these companies might want to start thinking about stock mergers which could still give holders upside if the combined companies turn around and thrive again.

To show just how bad things are, the Guggenheim Solar (AMEX: TAN) ETF trades at $21.09 and it has lost one-third of its value since its reverse split.

Westinghouse shares closed at $0.40 and its 52-week trading range is $0.26 to $2.75.  The market value was only $6.66 million as of Tuesday’s close.

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

JON C. OGG