Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
American Superconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: AMSC) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
Coinstar, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Cut to Neutral at Collins Stewart.
Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) Started as Overweight at Barclays; Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Hain Celestial Group (NASDAQ: HAIN) maintained Outperform and named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $450 at Argus.
Regions Financial Corporation (NYSE: RF) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
True Religion Apparel, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRLG) Cut to Hold at Brean Murray.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

JON C. OGG

Many solar stocks are likely experiencing rapid short covering.  Sticking around for the lowest prices after serious success is a sucker’s game.  There may also be a political angle here now that President Obama’s poll numbers are looking a bit better.  The problem is that it is going to take more now than a President with a continued favorable stance to alternative energy.  The fundamentals remain weak and now investors are getting to evaluate whether there is any value of if they are value traps.  Take a look at some of the moves…

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is up 7.5% at $49.29 against a 52-week range of $42.50 to $175.45.  The most recent short interest data showed that the short interest was 18 million shares and that was actually down from most reports in the fourth quarter of 2011

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is up over 13% at $8.53 today against a 52-week range of $4.94 to $23.36. The most recent short interest data showed that the short interest was 5.7 million shares, down from a November peak of 9.3 million shares and much lower than the 11.7 million shares short back at the end of June.

Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) is even up 12% to $1.29 and no longer at much of a delisting risk.  Its 52-week range is $0.20 to $4.29. The most recent short interest data showed that the short interest was 11.4 million shares at the lowest levels in a year since it had become a penny stock.

Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL), out of China, is up a whopping 24% at $11.44 against a 52-week range of $5.28 to $31.08.  That makes for a gain of 70% so far in 2011 and it would have to almost rise 200% to challenge its year-high. The most recent short interest data showed that the short interest was 15.5 million shares.

MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is also up 8% at $5.78 against a 52-week range of $3.65 to $15.04.  That gives a gain of almost 47% so far in 2012.  The most recent short interest data showed that the short interest was 14.5 million shares and that was actually higher than at the end of 2011 even if it is lower than prior months.

JON C. OGG

SolarCity, which does not manufacture solar PV cells or modules but only installs systems, has an agreement to purchase panels from First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) and has also used panels made by Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE), Kyocera Corp. (NYSE: KYO), Sharp, and thin-film start-up Miasole. The company competes directly with installers Real Goods Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: RSOL) and Westinghouse Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: WEST).

SolarCity has a contract worth about $1 billion to install solar PV systems on military housing, and the company has been able to get financing for its installations by repaying loans through lease agreements or power-purchase agreements with homeowners rather than depending on the homeowners to pay for the solar PV systems up front.

The dramatic decrease in solar panel prices last year has pushed the company’s growth, and SolarCity is now the market share leader in solar installations with 14%. Real Goods, which claims 6% of installations, trails in second place, but the company has expanded into the northeast US and is competing harder with SolarCity in states like New Jersey and Maryland.

The outcome of the trade case involving US-based solar PV manufacturers against Chinese competition could be the make-or-break issue in SolarCity’s plans. Solar PV installers like SolarCity and Real Goods probably account for about half the 100,000 US jobs related to solar energy. Solar panel manufacturing probably accounts for fewer than 5,000. A high tariff on Chinese solar panels could decimate the installation business.

Paul Ausick

SolarCity is the largest solar installer in the US, with about 14% of a market worth more than $2 billion. The company does not reveal its module suppliers, but did sign a 5-year supply contract with First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) in 2008, and has in the past used modules manufactured by both Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE), Kyocera Corp. (NYSE: KYO), Sharp, and thin-film start-up Miasole. Competitors among publicly listed companies are Real Goods Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: RSOL) and Westinghouse Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: WEST), formerly Akeena Solar, which licenses the Westinghouse brand from Toshiba Corp.

SolarCity offers homeowners solar installation with a variety of payment options, but the company’s rapid growth has come from its power-purchase agreements with homeowners who install the rooftop systems and then pay only for the power they use. These projects are financed by loans to SolarCity from the likes of Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) which have backed the program with loans totalling well over $240 million.

The company also offers systems purchasing plans and lease plans for residential and commercial customers. SolarCity also has a major contract with the Department of Defense to install solar systems on military housing units. The company was supposed to receive a federal loan guarantee to partially fund the $1 billion project, but the application was filed too late to be considered by the September 30th deadline. That’s when BofA/Merrill Lynch stepped in with financing.

SolarCity is also on the side of installers who disagree with the dumping case filed by the US division of Germany’s Solarworld AG against Chinese solar panel makers. The falling cost of the solar panels has generated more interest among consumers and commercial customers for installing solar PV systems, which is good for SolarCity, Real Goods, and other installers like Sungevity and SunRun.

SolarCity offers installation services in 11 states and the District of Columbia. And unlike the ill-fated Solyndra, SolarCity’s brand is both well-known and popular.

Paul Ausick

The study’s sponsor, the Coalition for Affordable Solar Energy, represents primarily installers and makers of all the pieces that go into a solar project except the panels themselves. The panel makers, led by the US division of Germany’s Solarworld AG which has about 1,400 employees in the US, filed the complaint late last year.

Virtually all solar panels are manufactured in Asia where tens of thousands of Chinese, Thais, and Filipinos are employed on assembly lines owned or leased by US companies like First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) and Sunpower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR). The solar installers’ group represents hundreds of mostly small businesses that are happy with the low US prices for solar panels because it means more work and more profit for them.

We covered the short interest changes for the January 13 settlement date and compared them to the December 30 short interest data and added in other color if applicable.

Alcatel Lucent S.A. (NYSE: ALU) rose to 22.54 million shares from over 18.2 million for a gain of almost 24%.

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) rose 18.5% to 186.1 million from over 157 million at the end of December.

Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) saw nearly a 6% gain to 34.76 million shares in the short interest to its highest level in a year.

Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) saw a gain of 12% to 10.46 million shares during its time of accounting woes, but this is still not as large as in OCT/NOV-2011.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) was down only marginally.  The solar leader (and whipping boy) was down again to 18.04 million shares from a reading of 18.7 million at the end of 2011. Be advised that this was FIVE STRAIGHT lower readings in the short interest.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) was up by 14.7% to 147.1 million.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) remains a battleground stock and the uptick was less than 1% to 26.489 million shares in the short interest.  That is still down about 10% from last year’s peak.

Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) posted another rise in the short interest to a new year record of over 32.2 million shares in the short interest.  So much for loving the lupus drug.

LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) continues to see rising bets against its stock.  The reading was 6.9 million shares short and that marks EIGHT STRAIGHT gains in the bets against the stock.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) may feel after-the-fact now that earnings are out, but the short interest rose by a sharp 25% to 11.422 million shares.  That is the highest short interest reading since last March.  Today’s gains have to be some short covering.

Research in Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) has had the vultures circling it for some time but this last short interest reading of 36.6 million was down more than 3% and was actually the lowest short interest reading since the end of last July.  Maybe all the short-sale money has been made since the stock fell about 75%.

Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) always has a high short interest due to its low price and controversial stock… What is interesting is that the gain was not even 2% in short shares to 305 million BUT… That is the highest short interest since the end of last May.

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

JON C. OGG

Solar makers are trying to stage a recovery.  First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is the leader of the pack in quality and operations and its shares are up about 9% at $42.30 versus a 52-week trading range of $29.87 to $175.45.  Even more impressive is the move in shares of MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) with a 17% gain to $4.58 versus a 52-week range of $3.65 to $15.04.  Even the Guggenheim Solar (NYSE: TAN) ETF and the Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) are surging.  We are paying close attention to SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), Yingli Green Energy Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) and others as well.  Here are the other movers with relative prices to their 52-week highs:

• SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is up 9.5% at $7.33, down from a year high of $23.36;
• Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is up a whopping 25% at $3.22 versus a year high of $10.83;
• Yingli Green Energy Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) is up 17% at $4.85 versus a year high of $13.59;
• LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is up 11.3% at $5.21 against a high of $14.97 in the last year, although it is easy to stick by the guns that LDK is mathematically bankrupt without the coverage of the Chinese government.
• Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) is up 23% at $0.38 against a high of $4.80 but this is one still is unlikely to survive 2012.

In the world of ETFs, these are running as well: Guggenheim Solar (NYSE: TAN) is up 10.5% at $2.95 versus a high of $9.16 and Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) is up 11.5% at $4.45.  The more diversified alt-energy ETF of PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) is up less than all of these with gains of 4.8% at $5.65.

Before getting too euphoric keep in mind that this is not unusual at the start of a year or new period where sector rotation favors the most beaten up sector.  Besides that, there is always the political angle on the solar sector that is front and center in the elections this year.

What we do know within reason is simple: solar PV unit prices cannot drop by another 50% or so in 2012.  If pricing has bottomed, perhaps these value traps may get to migrate to value stocks after all.  We still expect margin pressure, austerity, and a lack of the ability to pay dividends to all equal concerns of PV panel dumping by Chinese firms leading to a virtual race toward zero.

If you want to know just how big this news is, the S&P Utility Sector was the best performing sector in all of 2011 and its gains were not quite 15%.  To prove the point, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU) ETF rose by 19% in 2011 if you adjust for the dividend payments as so many utilities offer investors dividend yields of 4% and higher.

JON C. OGG

Rather than chasing market share, solar makers need to hold the line on supply increases, keep inventories under control, and, most important, return to profitability. The CEO of Taiwan’s Giga Solar Materials Corp. told Digitimes that he expects the market for solar panels to improve by the second quarter of the year.

Giga Solar makes the conductive aluminum paste used in solar cell manufacturing, and the company expects sales growth of 10-12% in 2012. Sales of silver paste are expected to post “tremendous growth” this year.

This prediction is based on fourth-quarter 2011 inventory clearing which should restore the supply/demand balance and help stabilize prices. Then production needs to be rationalized.

According to Solarbuzz, total shipments in 2012 need to be reduced by 4,900 megawatts from the industry’s goal of 28,200 megawatts. The industry research firm also notes that year-end inventories are estimated to be around 7,300 megawatts, down from a previous estimate of 8,600 megawatts.

The first calendar quarter of the year is a traditionally tough one for solar makers as the weather makes installations problematic. During the first quarter we could see prices and margins continuing to fall. As the weather improves so should demand, although Germany’s 15% feed-in tariff reduction will like cause a further decline in orders from German buyers.

The report in Digitimes is giving solar stocks a shot in the arm today. Yingli is up more than 8% at $4.11 in a 52-week range of $2.75-$13.59. First Solar shares are up more than 5% at $35.50 in a 52-week range of $29.87-$175.45. Sunpower’s shares are also up more than 5% at $6.56 in a 52-week range of $4.94-$23.36. Suntech shares are up about 3.5% at $2.29 in a 52-week range of $1.70-$10.83. The DJIA is up nearly 2% this morning.

Paul Ausick

The thirteen worst big stock and investor stories in 2011 are as follows: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC); Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND); First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR); Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR); Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ); Imperial Sugar Co. (NASDAQ: IPSU); iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV); K-V Pharmaceutical Company (NYSE: KV-A); Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF (NYSE: EGPT); Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP); Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX); Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM); and Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD).

Are there others? Of course.  We just wanted to review the worst of the biggest and most easily recognized stories out there.  Some of the explanations and criticisms here may seem a bit raw or overly colorful, but with this motley group what more could you expect…

Read Also: Ten Stocks Unlikely To Survive 2012

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) has seen almost everything that could go wrong come its way.  The bank cannot shake the Countrywide mortgage woes, it drove away customers with proposed new banking fees, and it has been under fire by more agencies and regulatory bodies than we can easily count.  The company can hardly get in a settlement that is ultimately not challenged by an outside force. It does not seem like it will get to raise its dividend any time soon and the fear is that perhaps it will need to raise more capital on 2012 stress tests.  This was the worst performing stock out of all 30 DJIA components and not even a Warren Buffett investment managed to keep the stock from falling.  So what if it half of book value now.

Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) became a sample of what can go wrong at a high growth food company.  Eventually the growth peaks and valuations come crashing down.  To go from a growing almond and nut products story to a company buying Pringles did not make sense to many, particularly since Diamond was going to be leveraging itself to make the deal.  Then came the accounting woes around payments to walnut farmers, and that was then followed by a director’s suicide who was inside the accounting woes story.  This was a great story that became very cloudy, just like if I poured a glass of their almond milk that I like so much to try to see through it. After running from about $50 to over $95, shares are now in the low $30-range and shares hit a low of $26.11 recently.  They could have found a rat in the milk vats and survived better than the way things turned out for them in 2011.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) went from the U.S.’s solar sector poster boy to perhaps the worst performing S&P 500 stock.  It is still the leader of the solar sector and that is why this one precedes all other solar stock implosions of 2011.  Its CEO resignation or firing came in a rather strange and sudden manner and its prospects do not look much better on the margin front for the next year.  Solar panel dumping by Chinese firms and the negative press of the government backing of the failed Solyndra only added to the fears here as short sellers were able to make a fortune here.  Shares closed out 2010 around $130 and shares went briefly north of $175 in February.  Shares are now around $33.00.  First Solar single-handedly turned many 401/K plans into 201/K plans in 2011.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) is one implosion which we debated whether or not should be part of a complaint for the full year.  Its accounting concerns were actually from 2010 and despite the massive share price drop the stock is actually still up for the year.  In fact, shares closed at $32.86 in 2010 and now the stock is around $46.00.  What is so bad is that the stock had been one of the best performing stocks as recently as September and the year high is above $115 for the stock.  Its growth has peaked, its advertising costs are way up, and Starbucks seems to have scored the better end of the deal between the two coffee companies. Because the stock is still up almost 50% for the year, we’ll back off.

Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) may have started its woes in 2010 after firing Mark Hurd and then hiring Leo Apotheker, the former head of SAP. Still, the baffled decision to even go along with Leo Apotheker’s decision to jettison the PC business was just too much.  And now the decision to keep the PC business seems like it is because the cost of exiting it is just too high.  Palm is now dead too.  The Apotheker decision to acquire the enterprise software outfit Autonomy for $10 billion.  If you overlay a one-year chart as you can see here, you would think that H-P was a bank because its stock tracked the negative performance of Bank of America almost in unison until September.  The verdict is out on whether or not Meg Whitman is right fit here, but frankly the stock has stabilized since she took over.  H-P shares closed out 2010 at an adjusted $41.48 and shares are now close to $26.00 after hitting a low of $21.50.

Imperial Sugar Co. (NASDAQ: IPSU) was looking a lot like a transformation in the making from a sugar company to a sweetener company looking to branch out into new growth markets.  The company even went on a roadshow and got on CNBC to tell its story.  Shares even went from roughly $10 to $25 based upon the hype.  Then over the summer came news of a wider loss and things have slid further from there.  Sadly, it seems that management may have known things were not great when the story changed abruptly and there are class action suits.  Now shares are around $3.50.  This feels like getting drunk at the casino and losing your life savings with the dealers telling you “Thanks for playing.”

The Financial Times cites an internal memo from BP Solar’s CEO:

The continuing global economic challenges have significantly impacted the solar industry, making it difficult to sustain long-term returns for the company.

A company spokesperson confirmed the closure, “Over the last six months we have realised that we simply can’t make any money from solar.” Falling prices for solar panels have killed a business that BP has operated for 40 years.

On the same day, a solar industry group called the Coalition for Affordable Solar Energy (CASE) has released a letter to the CEO of Germany’s Solarworld US operations urging the company to withdraw a suit filed with the US International Trade Commission seeking tariff protection on solar panels imported from China. The letter states, that the suit “threatens the planned installation of solar electric power systems in the amount of $11 billion in 2012 and the potential installation of $60 billion currently in the total pipeline.”

The letter goes on to note:

SolarWorld’s petition will do far more damage than good to the U.S. solar industry as a whole. CASE’s membership is representative of 97-98% of America’s solar industry, as the large majority of all U.S. solar industry jobs are downstream of solar panel manufacturing in project development, logistics, construction and installation.

Solar panel makers, even including low-cost Chinese providers, are staggering under collapsing prices, while solar installers, like those that are members of CASE, are getting a big boost from the low prices for solar panels. More than 100,000 Americans are currently employed installing solar projects from rooftops to utility-scale. Solar manufacturing probably accounts for fewer than 5,000 US jobs, not counting workers in US owned factories overseas.

It should be no surprise that BP has finally decided to get out completely.

Paul Ausick