Posts for Ticker ‘FTO’

Unusual Options Trading Patterns (SUN, VLO, TSO, FTO, GE, GOOG, IBM, PFE, WYE)

We are starting to see some elevated options trading that appeared on the unusual volume screens.  Many of these are pre-earnings trading and some are on other expectations.  We have more detailed data on each over at VSinvestor.com with links on each stock individually:

OptionsHawk.com pointed out to us that there was a huge increase in refiners options trading in Sunoco Inc. (NYSE: SUN), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), Frontier Oil Corp. (NYSE: FTO) and in Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO).

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is starting to see some elevated options trading as well ahead of tomorrow’s earnings.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is seeing increased options trading ahead of earnings, which was actually more active on a fully leveraged basis than the stock was.

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is seeing increased options trading ahead of earnings.

Pfzer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is seeing elevated stock trading on the Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) closing due to indexers like the S&P 500 and Russell adding shares, and we are seeing it in the call options as well.

As a reminder, OCT-2009 options expiration date is tomorrow, and all “out of the money” with an October expiration will expire with a value of ZERO.

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JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 15, 2009

Posted on: October 15, 2009 – 2:50 pm in Options, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Analyst Calls (CMG, FTO, GS, NTAP, OSG, SBUX, SYY, TK, WRI, YUM)

These are the top 10 analyst calls we have seen early this Wednesday morning from Wall Street:

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Raised to Outperform at William Blair.
Frontier Oil (FTO) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Goldman Sachs (GS) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Network Appliance (NTAP) Raised to Buy at Merriman Curhan Ford.
Overseas Shuipholding (OSG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Starbucks (SBUX) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
Sysco (SYY) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Teekay (TK) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Weingarten Realty (WRI) Raised to Market Perform at Wachovia.
YUM Brands (YUM) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
JON C. OGG

Posted on: April 15, 2009 – 6:58 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Fitch Ratings Looks at Refiners (VLO, FTO, TSO)

refinery-image1Fitch Ratings published a short report on the effect of the compression in crude oil spreads on refiners. We looked at this phenomenon about a month ago. Fitch concludes that the “relative cost advantage of higher complexity refiners”, that is, those that process heavy, sour crudes, “has been muted relative to less flexible sweet light peers.”  If the heavy sour crudes are not discounted relative to light, sweet WTI, refiners such as Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO), Frontier Oil Corporation (NYSE:FTO), and Tesoro Corporation (NYSE:TSO) face a period of “underperformance.”
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Posted on: March 23, 2009 – 8:26 am in Analyst Calls, Oil & Gas, , ,

Frontier Oil, Refiner Earnings Lagging Peers (FTO, SUN, WNR, VLO)

Oil_refinery_image_2Frontier Oil (NYSE:FTO) released its third quarter earnings yesterday, and the news was not good. EPS was $0.70, down from $1.28 a year ago, and below analysts’ estimates of $0.73. Revenues rose to $2.2 billion, up 58% from a year ago.

Unlike Sunoco (NYSE:SUN) or Western Refining (NYSE:WNR), Frontier didnot say anything about trying to sell any assets. Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) appears to have recently signaled that the worst is behind too.

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Posted on: November 7, 2008 – 8:52 am in Earnings, Oil & Gas, , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ALSK, AMLN, CX, FTO, NVDA, OVTI, BTU, QSFT, RBS, WBMD)

These are ten of the analyst calls we are focusing on this Wednesday morning:

  • Alaska Communications (NASDAQ: ALSK) Raised to Buy at Banc Of America Securities.
  • Amylin Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AMLN) Raised to Equalweight at Lehman Brothers.
  • Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE: CX) Cut to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Frontier Oil (NYSE: FTO) Raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
  • Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) Raised to Market-Outperform at JMP Securities.
  • OmniVision Tech (NASDAQ: OVTI) downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer.
  • Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) Raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  • Quest Software (NASDAQ: QSFT) Raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Royal Bank Of Scotland (NYSE: RBS) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • WebMD (NASDAQ: WBMD) Raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.

Jon C. Ogg
May 28, 2008

Posted on: May 28, 2008 – 6:04 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Are Refining Stocks Safer After Valero? (VLO, TSO, FTO, WNR, HOC)

Valero Corp. (NYSE: VLO) shares are trading up almost 10% after the company posted earnings.  Valero has been what seems like habitually hampered with higher refining costs more than it has been a beneficiary of higher sell-through prices from high oil costs.  With shares trading up 9.5%to $60.10 and a 52-week trading range of $47.40 to $78.68, its shares are still down over 23% from year highs.  The company has retired nearly 120 million shares of stock since the end of 2005.

Valero’s operating income was barely half of last years Q4 report at $567 million versus $1.1 Billion, while the EPS report was $1.02 EPS versus $1.74 last year.  The prior year included a $196 million pre-tax gain on sale, otherwise the net would have compared to $954 million from operations and $1.53 EPS.  While they were down, these earnings were significantly above Wall Street expectations as First Call had a $0.64 EPS target for the quarter.  Revenues for the quarter were $28.66 Billion, up from $18.8 Billion in Q4 2007.

Some of our more pure-play stocks in refining are also up considerably today.  As you can see some are still considerably off of their highs:

  • Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) shares are up some 7% at $41.10 today.  With a 52-week trading range of $34.00 to $65.98, its shares are still down more than 33% from the highs.
  • Frontier Oil (NYSE: FTO) shares are up some 13% after Goldman Sachs added it to the Conviction Buy list.  With shares up 13.6% to $36.47 and a 52-week trading range of $26.71 to $49.13, its shares are still down over 25% from yearly highs.
  • Western Refining (NYSE: WNR) shares are trading up after shares were upgraded from underperform to Neutral at Credit Suisse on Monday.  With shares up 10% to $22.30 and a 52-week trading rang, of $16.70 to $66.30, this stock is still down over 60% from its 52-week highs.
  • Holly Corp. (NYSE: HOC) was also raised Monday from underperform to Neutral at Credit Suisse.  With shares up 6.4% to $49.40 and a 52-week trading range of $39.36 to $80.88, its shares are still down 38% from yearly highs.

Valero noted that refined product margins were lower because the cost of crude oil and other feedstocks increased more than product prices.  Margins for many of the company’s secondary products, such as asphalt, fuel oils, and petrochemical feedstocks, were also lower on raw materials and feedstock prices.  Valero also noted that margins for some of our secondary products, such as asphalt, fuel oils, and petrochemical feedstocks, are still weak.  But its continues to see wide discounts to WTI for the sour and heavy crude oils and other feedstocks that make up more than 60 percent of our throughput volumes. Valero also expects diesel margins to remain strong since inventories are well below the levels.

So it isn’t as though the pure-play refiners can count the all-clear sign being given.  But Wall Street was expecting much worse, and sometimes "things just not being as bad" is double-plus good.

Jon C. Ogg
January 29, 2008

Posted on: January 29, 2008 – 2:02 pm in Earnings, Oil & Gas, , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AFFX, C, DIS, DSCM, GSIC, JBLU, PNRA, UN, UNTD, DVN, KWK, NFX, EOG, FTO)

These are not the only important analyst calls out there, but these are the top analyst calls that 24/7 Wall St. is focusing on:

  • Affymetric (AFFX) raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Citigroup (C) saw its Debt rating cut from Aa2 to Aa3 and financial strength cut from A to B at Moody’s based on capital ratios.
  • Disney (DIS) raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Drugstore.com (DSCM) started as Buy at Banc of America.
  • GSI Commerce (GSIC) cut to Hold at Jefferies.
  • Jetblue Airways (JBLU) raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
  • Panera Bread (PNRA) Cut to Neutral at Sun Trust Robinson Humphreys.
  • Unilever (UN) started as Buy at Banc of America.
  • United Online (UNTD) raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • Credit Suisse makes downgrades in oil patch: Devon (DVN), EOG Resources (EOG), Frontier (FTO), Newfield Exploration (NFX), Quicksilver (KWK).

Jon C. Ogg
December 14, 2007

Posted on: December 14, 2007 – 8:19 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (BHI, HAL, FNM, FRE, INTC, MAT, MSFT, ORCL, MIR, NOVL, FTO, TSO, VLO)

These are not the only impacting analyst calls in the land of upgrades & downgrades, but these are the top ten analyst calls 24/7 Wall St. is looking at today:

  • Baker Hughes (BHI) & Halliburton (HAL) raised to Outperform at Bernstein.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) & Freddie Mac (FRE) cut to Equal Weight at Lehman.
  • Frontier Oil (FTO), Tesoro (TSO) & Valero (VLO) estimates lowered at Goldman Sachs.
  • Intel (INTC) added to Goldman Sachs conviction Buy List, to replace the Long SNDK, Short AMAT pairs trade.
  • Mattel (MAT) raised to Overweight at J.P.Morgan.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) cut to Neutral from Buy at Merrill Lynch.
  • Mirant (MIR) raised to Overweight at Lehman.
  • Novell (NOVL) raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Oracle (ORCL) cut to Neutral from Buy at Merrill Lynch.

Jon C. Ogg
November 12, 2007

Posted on: November 12, 2007 – 8:08 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Goldman Sachs Major Oil Changes (APA, FST, KWK, KGS, EP, XOM, FTO, HES, MUR, OXY, CVX)

Goldman Sachs this morning made some significant "Super-Spike" era calls where it said oil could reach $135 per barrel and noted up to $4.50 per gallon of gasoline at the pump for you and me, although its actual base targets are not at that level.  It has hiked integrated oil earnings estimates and maintaining "Attractive Ratings" on the sector to include exploration and production.  2008 and 2009 estimates have been raised for oil services and deepwater drillers, and made the following price base price assumptions for oil per barrel and natural gas ($/MMBtu):

  • 2008 $80.00/$8.50
  • 2009 $90.00/$10.00
  • 2010 $80.00/$8.50
  • 2011 $75.00/$7.50

Oil Services estimates raised 6% in 2008 and 16% 2009.  Estimates unchanged for offshore drillers due to high contract coverage in deepwater markets and increasing uncontracted supply in the shallow water market.  Increased price targets by 7% on average for oil service stocks and by 5% on average for deepwater levered drillers.

Even after Apache Corp. (NYSE:APA) was raised to Buy last week, Goldman Sachs is adding it to the CONVICTION BUY LIST, replaces Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE:FST) on the list.

Quicksilver Resources (NYSE:KWK) continued as Buy/Attractive as performed well since announcing asset sales last week.

QuickSilver Gas Services L.P. (KGS) started as Buy with a $27 target over 12 months.

Other estimates increased (partial list): El Paso (EP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Frontier Oil (FTO), Hess (HES), Marathon Oil (MRO), Murphy Oil (MUR), Newfield Exploration (NFX), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Petro-Canada (PCZ), Suncor Energy (SU), Sunoco (SUN), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Chevron (CVX), Apache (APA).

Jon C. Ogg
September 17, 2007

Posted on: September 17, 2007 – 8:05 am in Analyst Calls, Oil & Gas, , , , , , , , , , ,

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (July 23, 2007)

AFL raised to Overweight at Lehman.
AMGN raised to Hold at Citigroup.
ASBC cut to Underweight at Lehman.
BUD raised to Hold at Citigroup.
CKR started as Neutral at JPMorgan.
EMN raised to Buy at Citigroup.
EOG cut to Sell at Citigroup.
FPL raised to Outperform at Baird.
FTO started as Neutral at UBS.
GAP cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.
HBC raised to Overweight at Lehman.
IMAX raised to Buy at Merriman Curhan Ford.
KWK cut to Sell at Citigroup.
NVT raised to Buy at UBS.
PGN raised to Outperform at Baird.
PNY raised to Outperform at Baird.
SUN started as Neutral at UBS.
TAC cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.
TSO started as Neutral at UBS.
VLO started as Buy at UBS.
VMSI cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.
WNR started as Reduce at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
July 23, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: July 23, 2007 – 6:49 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,