Posts for Ticker ‘gas’

Top Analyst Upgrades (AA, WTR, BEC, CWT, CHRT, CHA, GAS, NOK, PNY, WW)

money-stack-image44These are the top upgrades and positive research calls we have seen from Wall Street analysts so far early this Thursday morning:

Alcoa (AA) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Aqua America (WTR) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Beckman Coulter (BEC) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
California Water (CWT) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Chartered Semiconductor (CHRT) Raised to Neutral at HSBC.
China Telecom (CHA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Nicor (GAS) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Nokia (NOK) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Watson Wyatt Worldwide (WW) Started as Buy at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

-JON C. OGG

Getting Relief from Low Gas Prices (GAS)

Nicor Inc. (NYSE:GAS) reported better-than-expected fourth quarter results as heating demand driven by colder weather boosted the results of the natural gas utility.

Fourth quarter EPS was $1.05, compared with analysts’ estimates of $0.67, and EPS for the year was $2.63, compared with estimates of $2.27. Compared with 2007 earnings, Nicor’s fourth quarter is down by 14% and the full year is down by 12%.
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Nicor: Shares Could Head South Today (GAS)

Nicor_logoThis is a story about that rare thing these days: a company with a stock price higher today than it was a year ago. Unfortunately, that may change following today’s release of third quarter earnings from Nicor (NYSE:GAS).

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FedEx Finally Likes Fuel Prices As Economy Weakens (FDX, UPS)

Fedex_logoIt looks like lower fuel prices are turning into net gains for transportation companies.  Finally! FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) has announced that it now expects to post earnings of $1.23 per share for the first quarter.   This is well above previous earnings guidance of $0.80 to $1.00.  For fiscal 2009, it has also reaffirmed its earnings guidance of $4.75 to $5.25 per share as weaker economic conditions offset these better-than-expected first quarter results. First Call has estimates at $0.95 for the quarter and $4.98 for the year.

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Blacking Out The Sun: Falling In Love With Filthy Fuel

The International Energy Agency, the most well-regarded oil-price think tank in the world, says it is now concerned with whether the global supply of oil will be adequate to meet demand over the next two decades. The group had spent most of its time in recent years looking at the dynamics of demand, especially in crude-hungry regions like the US and China.

The prevailing wisdom has been that oil supplies are ample in places like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The kings and princes who run those countries just wanted to hold back shipments to keep prices high. That thinking is changing. The IEA “is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast,” according to The Wall Street Journal. By way of turning modest hope into hopelessness, the analysis also points out that big oil producing countries are spending much less on exploration.

The thought that oil could move closer to $200 may not be so misguided.

Dirty energy is coming back into vogue. According to The New York Times, “in Japan (coal) production has jumped to its highest in nearly four decades.”

In Beijing there are days when the sun is barely visible. Smog hangs over the city, most of it from coal and wood burned for heat and energy. The Chinese central government has tried to clean some of that up for the Olympics. It has not worked entirely. A number of athletes won’t be showing up for the games. They claim the air quality it too poor. But, China drags on oil like an old man does on a cigarette. What does not kill him makes him stronger.

The US has an abundance of coal. Mining is becoming more profitable as oil prices rise and demand for anthracite soars. A little pollution could go a long way to cut dependence on oil.

The 1986 problems at Chernobyl put the West off nuclear energy. Having citizens who glow in the dark did not seem worth having cheap and abundant energy. The US does not build nuclear plants anymore. When oil hits $150, the sentiment about that may change. The government may even look at granting incentives to energy companies who want to put a carrier-class plants next to a big cities.

Energy alternatives which seemed unimaginable just months ago are starting to look like beauty queens. Solar and ethanol will not be able to replace oil, at least not for years. With uranium and coal, it is a different matter.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Higher Utility Bills Coming; Rate Relief Filed (FE, CHG, AEE, AYE, GAS)

While many utilities are reporting earnings, there is one thing that many investors will care about more than each company’s results.  It seems that utilities across the board are filing with state or regional boards for rate relief to pass on higher costs to customers.

First Energy Corp. (NYSE:FE) today reported first quarter earnings of $276 million, or $0.91 EPS, compared with earnings of $290 million and $0.92 EPS for the same period in 2007. First quarter revenues totaled $3.3 billion, better than analyst estimates of $3.14 billion and $0.85 EPS. First Energy noted that high fuel costs and higher costs for purchased power reduced EPS by $0.19.

Earlier this week, CH Energy Group Inc. (NYSE:CHG) reported that revenues increased by more than 19%, but net income declined by about 4% and EPS decreased by about 4%. The company’s chairman and CEO had this to say: "Higher energy supply costs are resulting in higher total bills, inducing our customers to conserve, and sales volumes are noticeably affected." In other words, people turn down the heat in an effort to save money, and it costs the utilities money.

So what do utilities do? They go to their state public utility regulators and ask for rate hikes. First Energy has sought a rate increase in  Ohio of $340 million. Central Hudson is seeking an unspecified rate increase during the summer. Ameren Corp (NYSE:AEE), which will report earnings tomorrow, is seeking rate annual increases of 12.1% ($251 million annually) in Missouri and $247 million in Illinois.

The blame for the rate hikes resides largely with rising fuel costs. Coal prices have nearly doubled in the past year, and average natural gas prices at the wellhead have increased by about 25%. The utilities have a point. But they are also seeking increases to their regulated return, usually by about 1%-2%. State regulators so far are not impressed. Last year, Ameren requested a rate hike of $361 million in Missouri, which state regulators trimmed to a recommended $43 million. Both the company and government officials in Missouri are appealing the ruling. The company because the recommended increase is insufficient; the government, because it is too high.

Allegheny Energy, Inc.’s (NYSE: AYE) Potomac Edison Co., has also filed a request with the
Virginia State Corporation Commission for recovery of the cost of purchasing power for its Virginia customers.  It is asking for the recovery of a minimum of $73 million for the 12-month period beginning July 1, 2008, which would boost customer electric bills by about 29% if certain costs can’t be mitigated.

Nicor Inc. (NYSE: GAS) has also filed with the state of Illinois to pass on higher gas costs to its 2.2 million northern Illinois customers.  The rate hike request will add about $4.60 per month to the average residential electric bill, which would take effect in spring 2009.  While the company is saying this isn’t due to the cost of gas because Nicor buys on wholesale and passes on to customers without any mark-up, but this is "for the cost of delivery to the homes and businesses."  Delivery, material…. six of one, half a dozen of the other.

Higher gas prices, higher coal prices, and higher raw materials and transportation costs are going to be influencing residence and business utility bills.  If you think this is bad, wait until potable water shortages become more and more prevalent.  Higher utility bills are on the way, probably across the country and beyond.

Paul Ausick
May 1, 2008