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Yesterday’s surprise move from India that sent gold through the roof to almost $1,085.00 per ounce was a game changing event in gold. Many technical analysts and chartists were looking for, or at least hoping for, a further consolidation in the price of the shiny yellow stuff. Yet now that appears to not be the case. This has broad ramifications for the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and for Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX); and it also of course will help push top-line and bottom line improvements to the likes of two of the huge players of Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) and for Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG). This morning we received an audio-visual slide show technical analysis presentation from one of our affiliates INO. This was by Adam Hewison, who we have noted was making a big gold call for a move to $1,100 and then $1,200 or even higher back when gold prices were consolidating and well under the $1,000 mark.
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Posts for Ticker ‘GG’
Top Analyst Upgrades (AMR, ANSW, ABX, CSCO, CAL, CSC, EMC, GG, HOG)
These are this Wednesday’s early upgrades and positive research calls which we have seen out of Wall Street firms this morning:
AMR Corp. (AMR) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
Answers Corp. (ANSW) Raised to Buy at Canaccord.
Barrick Gold (ABX) Raised to Overweight at JP Morgan.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Continental Airlines (CAL) Raised to Equal Weight at Barclays.
Computer Sciences (CSC) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
EMC Corp. (EMC) Raised to Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Goldcorp (GG) Raised to Overweight at JP Morgan.
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
You can join our open email distribution list to get updates each morning on analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s and secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.
JON C. OGG
October 14, 2009
Charts vs. Fundamentals: How High Can Gold Go? (GG, ZLC, GLD, GDX, ABX)
This morning’s move in gold may have seemed like an anomaly as gold briefly traded up over $970.00 per ounce. The shiny yellow stuff rose $2.28 at $964.78 as of 10:42 AM EST. What is interesting is how the companies and instruments around the shiny metal have been trading and what they have been reporting. Gold Fields (NYSE: GG), Zale Corp. (NYSE: ZLC), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), and Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) are all of focus and interest here.
One of our affiliates has run a chart based audio visual analysis with the expectation that next week will be a solid week in gold and a note that we could pass the $1,000.00 mark.
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Gold Trends Ahead of Miner Earnings (ABX, GG, GOLD, AU, GLD)
Ben Bernanke thinks the risks of inflation may be overstated or those fearing major inflation may be misguided. But that feeling is still not shared by many on Wall Street and also not shared by many on Main Street. In fact, the recent return of gold prices off the $900 mark to almost $950 and the return of oil back close to $65.00 per barrel have many wondering if that higher Producer Pricing Index data from June could get a repeat either in July or in August. Our guess is August rather than July, but there is still almost two trading weeks left in the month of July. We have earnings coming from some majors in the next week and wanted to evaluate those trends for Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD), and Anglogold Ashanti Limited (NYSE: AU). The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) of course offer the most direct investment in bullion without the operational risks tied to individual companies.
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Top Analyst Downgrades (DNB, GG, HIG, MAS, MR, RMG)
These are some of the top pre-market analyst downgrades and cautious research calls we have seen early this Tuesday morning with about two hours until the open:
Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) Started as Neutral at Baird.
Goldcorp (GG) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Hartford Financial (HIG) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Masco (MAS) Cut to Sell at UBS.
Mindray Medical (MR) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Risk Metrics (RMG) Started as Neutral at Baird.
JON C. OGG
Mining Earnings Plummet (FCX, ABX, GG)
Now this is what really bad news looks like. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX) reported first quarter 2009 EPS of $0.11 on net income of $43 million, compared with EPS of $2.64 and net income of $1.1 billion in the first quarter a year ago. Revenue was $2.6 billion, compared with $5.67 billion in 2008.
Analysts weren’t expecting much, and they got even less. Thomson Reuters’ estimates averaged $0.13, and revenue estimates averaged $2.69 billion. Operating income for the quarter totaled $672 million, against $2.4 billion a year ago. Expectations for Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX), which reports next week, and Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG), which reports the week after that, are not much better.
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Gold’s Value Without Fear & Inflation (GLD, GDX, ABX, GFI, GG, NEM)
The recent move in gold may be saying something about how to value the commodity in an environment of low inflation and in an environment where fear brings less of a premium. The London gold price today is down around $920/ounce. That’s about $25/ounce lower than yesterday’s close and gold had been down about $30/ounce earlier. In fact, that decline reflects what may be a topping trend in gold prices for the last 30 days. For the past year gold prices have trended upward, but the last thirty days have turned down. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) ETF is almost flat for the past 30 days and for the past year. The Market Vectors Gold Miners Index (NYSE: GDX) is down about 20% for the year and about flat for the last 30 days.
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Just Like That, Gold Lost Its Luster (ABX, NEM, GG, RGLD, GLD)
Share prices for gold miners and gold bullion mostly dropped yesterday as traders thought it was a good day to take on more risk. In London this morning, gold prices have jumped back above $900/ounce after trading under that mark earlier.
The CEO of Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX) recently said that the supply of gold will continue to drop, even as the price continues to be volatile. That’s not exactly earth-shattering news, but Barrick stock dropped almost $2/share (7%). Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM) also fell about 7%, Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG) dropped 8%, and Royal Gold Inc. lost about 4%. Even ETF bullion buyer SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) fell by about 1%.
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Gold Sort of Shines (NEM, GG)
Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM) and Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) both reported earnings this morning. Newmont had net income of $10 million ($0.02 EPS) on revenue of $1.342 billion. On a non-GAAP basis, Newmont beat analysts’ estimates of $0.25 EPS by a penny. Revenue missed the average estimate of $1.42 billion.
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Has Gold Peaked? (ABX, GG, NEM, AU, GLD, GTU, DGL, IAU)
When the going gets tough, the tough go for gold. That’s historically the way it’s worked out. And the going is definitely tough now. So what about gold? Is it going up or down? Is gold the place to be right now?
Gold miners such as Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX), Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG), Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM), and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE:AU) offer one way to invest in gold. There is also a mining ETF, Miners Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE:GDX). Another way to invest in gold is either by buying bullion directly or investing in bullion through a commodity ETF such as SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) or PowerShares DB Gold (NYSE:DGL).
Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (ABB, BCS, CPO, CYNO, FFIV, GG, HMA, HBC, MBT, NWS, TRI, VIA, VIP)
These are some of the top pre-market analyst downgrades we have seen early this Friday morning:
- ABB (ABB) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
- Barclays (BCS) Cut to Sell at RBS.
- Corn Products (CPO) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
- Cynosure (CYNO) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
- F5 Networks (FFIV) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
- Goldcorp (GG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
- Health Management (HMA) Cut to underweight at Barclays.
- HSBC (HBC) Cut to Sell at RBS.
- Mobile TeleSystems (MBT) Cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
- News Corp. (NWS) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
- Thomson Reuters (TRI) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
- Viacom (VIA) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
- Vimpelcom (VIP) Cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Jon C. Ogg
January 16, 2009
Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (ABX, COGT, GMR, GG, NEM, NAT, PRU, UBS, X, WOR)
These are some of the top pre-market analyst downgrades we have seen early this Monday morning:
- Barrick (ABX) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
- Cogent (COGT) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
- General Maritime (GMR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
- Goldcorp (GG) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
- Newmont (NEM) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
- Nordic American Tanker (NAT) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
- Prudential (PRU) Cut to Marekt Perform at FBR.
- UBS (UBS) Cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
- US Steel (X) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
- Worthington (WOR) Cut to Underperform at CIBC.
Jon C. Ogg
December 22, 2008
Royal Gold, Envy of Chartists & Gold Bugs (RGLD, ABX, MFN, GG, NEM, GDX)
In the current climate, there are hardly any stocks which are hitting new 52-week highs. If you go to the gold sector, the leaders are very far under their highs. Apparently, it seems that Royal Gold Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) did not get the memo that its peers are well off of highs and that there are problems with the stock market. Shares of Royal Gold are at 52-week and all-time highs. There may be good reason too.
Gold Stock Challenging 52-Week & All-Time Highs (RGLD, NEM, ABX, GG, GDX)
We didn’t include Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGLD) in yesterday’s look at mining stocks where we outlined scenarios which would make 2009 a great year or a lousy year for the sector’s key players. But investors certainly have been looking it over. Shares closed at $37.06 yesterday, about $3.00 from their 52-week high. In fact, shares even briefly put in a new 52-week high on an intra-day basis.
Are Gold Miners Getting Well? (ABX, GG, NEM, AU)
In the past month, gold mining stocks have hit new 52-week lows. On October 27th, Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX) bottomed out at $17.27, Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) hit $13.84 on the same day, and Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) fell to $21.17. AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) waited a month to touch a low of $13.37 on November 20th.
Gold Miners Digging a Deeper Hole (ABX, GG, NEM)
Gold mining stocks have a real challenge in the current environment. The top companies like Barrick (NYSE:ABX), Goldcorp (NYSE:GG), and Newmont (NYSE:NEM) are doing all they can to reduce costs in the face of falling demand and even faster-falling prices. They’ve got a ways to go yet.
Gold Fields Underscores Woes of Gold Sector (GFI, NEM, GG, ABX, AU, GLD, GDX)
South African gold miner Gold Fields Limited (NYSE:GFI) posted its fiscal year 2008 earnings today. The company has been hit hard by higher costs, lower production, and a cave-in that killed eight miners. The company reported net profit for the year of $662.6 million on production of about 3.64 million ounces of gold. What is most interesting here is that the issues inside the company may offer some great insight to the problems inside other global gold miners.
Gold Stocks to the Rescue? (ABX, GG, GLD)
Back in July we noted that two big gold miners were pulling back on 2008 guidance. Barrick (NYSE:ABX) and Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) were both predicting production at the lower end of guidance and rising costs to get that gold out of the ground. But the current financial market turmoil could make gold the last refuge as investors have to put their cash into something other than low-reward money market instruments.
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