Posts for Ticker ‘GLD’

Soros Fund Holdings

Yesterday Soros Fund Management Filed a 13-F outlining the fund’s long portfolio as of September 30th, 2009.  The total value of the holdings reported in the filing is $6,198,089.  Twenty holdings represented roughly 50% of the value.  Soros Fund Management is a hedge fund management company that invests primarily based on macroeconomic analysis.  It should be noted that the fund’s equity portfolio likely contains significant short positions, which are not reported in 13-F filings.  Some of the positions in the filing may be in place as hedges or part of a multi-part trade, rather than a directional bet.  With that in mind, a glance at this firm’s major holdings provides clues to its macroeconomic outlook.  

Total stakes in Petroleo Brasileo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR) represent 9.23% of the value of the positions reported in the filing, with just over 13 million shares held.  This is down from by 2.3 million from the fund’s last filing. Read More »

Posted on: November 17, 2009 – 10:52 am in Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Yet Higher Gold Prices Cometh (GLD, GDX, ABX, GG)

Gold ImageYesterday’s surprise move from India that sent gold through the roof to almost $1,085.00 per ounce was a game changing event in gold.  Many technical analysts and chartists were looking for, or at least hoping for, a further consolidation in the price of the shiny yellow stuff.  Yet now that appears to not be the case.  This has broad ramifications for the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and for Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX); and it also of course will help push top-line and bottom line improvements to the likes of two of the huge players of Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) and for Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG).  This morning we received an audio-visual slide show technical analysis presentation from one of our affiliates INO.  This was by Adam Hewison, who we have noted was making a big gold call for a move to $1,100 and then $1,200 or even higher back when gold prices were consolidating and well under the $1,000 mark.
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Posted on: November 4, 2009 – 11:09 am in Charts, Commodities, ETF, Emerging Markets, Metals, Technical Analysis, , , ,

Technician Call: Oil to $90+, But Questions Seasonality (USO, GLD, OIL, OIH)

Oil Well ImageNow that Gold has busted $1,000.00 and headed up almost every day since, the next target commodity is oil and the question is if black gold can mirror the performance of yellow gold.  One of our affiliates has a quick detailed technical analysis audio/video presentation that shows the possibility of much higher oil prices.  The United States Oil (NYSE: USO) is harder to use as a measure to directly track oil tick for tick, because unlike the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) directly investing in gold bullion, as the USO tries to track oil prices by rolling futures contracts.  The iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) also uses crude oil futures contract (plus the T-Bill rate of interest that could be earned) to track oil prices.

While using the price of oil as a tracking measure is hard to do outside of directly trading oil, the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH) is one of the best way to play the big oil services companies and it often tracks broader oil prices more than the large integrated oil players.
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Posted on: October 14, 2009 – 10:15 am in Charts, Commodities, ETF, Oil & Gas, Technical Analysis, , , ,

Record Gold Prices Spark ETF/ETN (GLD, SLV)

Gold ImageGold has just hit a new contract high of $1,035.00 on a nominal basis.  While this is far short of an inflation-adjusted price compared to the 1980’s highs, this is still a nominal high.  The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) are up 1.7% at $101.55 this morning, which is above that old $108.08 high.  We have been noting an affiliate of ours who has been calling emphatically for higher gold prices.  Yesterday,  in a call that was against the US Dollar and against the S&P 500 Index, the call for gold was for a move above the old power band and a surge to $1,200.00 or possibly even higher.  Gold’s gains are taking silver and copper higher as well.  We have the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) up 3.2% at $16.91 in pre-market trading, although its recent high is $17.26.

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 6, 2009

Posted on: October 6, 2009 – 9:16 am in Charts, Commodities, ETF, Metals, ,

Technical Analysis Predictions For Q4 (SPY, UUP, UDN, GLD, TLT, TBT)

bull-and-bear-image2Maybe it is time after a 50%+ gain in the major equity indexes, or maybe it is just everyone getting into the October bearish mode.  We are hearing more and more calls for a very weak equities market ahead.  One of our affiliates just ran a detailed audio/video presentation showing what the charts are expecting for Q4-2009 in the S&P 500, the US Dollar Index, Gold, and even bond yields.  Unfortunately this is a bad prediction for stocks and can be tracked directly by the SPDR (NYSE: SPY), or Spyders.  This prediction also has some gloom forecast for the US Dollar Index, which can be tracked in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP) and in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: UDN). That is partly for the call for much higher Gold, which can be tracked most easily in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).  The prediction for bonds was not as finite, but at record lows we can’t really argue with the logic that yields can only go one way unless sideways is considered a directional change.
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Posted on: October 5, 2009 – 1:02 pm in Analyst Calls, Bonds, Charts, Commodities, ETF, Economy, Index, International Markets, Metals, Technology Companies, , , , , ,

Weak Economic News Sends Investors to Gold (ABX, KGC, GFI, GDX, GLD, RGLD)

camMonopoly_wideweb__430x325,0This morning’s reports on unemployment (up), manufacturing (down), housing (sort of up), and consumer spending (up a little) have pushed the market down. Out of the gate this morning, gold miners and spot gold prices followed the market down, but as trading has increased the spot gold price has recovered about half its early losses and the gold miners are coming back too. Read More »

Posted on: October 1, 2009 – 11:47 am in Metals, , , , , ,

Gold Miners Digging Out? (ABX, AU, NEM, GDX, GLD)

Now that Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX) has raised $4 billion or so to buy out its hedges, the company is set to enjoy an expected run-up in gold prices. In early trading today, Barrick shares were up about 1.5%, AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE:AU) shares were up slightly, and Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM) shares were up about 1%.

Share prices for these and other gold mining shares have been on the rise for the past few weeks. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) peaked at $48 a week ago, a new 52-week high. SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:GLD) also flirted with a new 52-week high today. Spot gold prices have been as high as $1,015/oz today, but are moving back down at just $1,001.79. Read More »

Posted on: September 24, 2009 – 11:13 am in Metals, , , , ,

The DJIA 10,000 Psyche (AIG, C, DIA, SPY, GLD)

Bull and Bear ImageWhile everyone is stuck talking about the one year anniversary of the Lehman implosion and the real start of the next-to-last big leg down in the financial sector, there is a significant development taking place that is more psychological than anything.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is within 300 points of the 10,000 mark.  What is interesting, depending upon how you would calculate the stocks now after a reverse split, is that had American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) and Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) been left in the DJIA we would already be right at the 10,000 mark.  Changing index components can bite both ways.

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Posted on: September 16, 2009 – 11:19 am in ETF, Index, , , , ,

The Unusual Suspects (GT, CTB, S, DT, LOPE, BBY, ORCL, PALM, GLD, CSX, UNP, RGR)

bull-and-bear-image2We have a whole host of stocks and sectors to watch throughout this coming week.  We have Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT) and Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: CTB) to watch on some tariff news.  Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) will likely be a key mover on Monday on potential merger reports.  Grand Canyon Education Inc. (NASDAQ: LOPE) is supposed to have a secondary offering early this week.  Earnings are coming from Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY), Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL), Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) and others.  $1,000.00 gold is going to be key for the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).  CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX), Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), and Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. (NYSE: RGR) are all likely suspects to watch for catch-up trading based on news outside of those companies.  More details are provided on each of these.  Stay tuned this week.
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Posted on: September 13, 2009 – 12:27 pm in Autos, Calendar, Commodities, Earnings, Editor's Picks, Mergers and Buy Outs, Politics, Regulation, Rumors, Secondary Offering, Short Interest, The Week, Trading Alert, Transports, , , , , , , , , , , ,

The $1,000 Gold Call Returns (GLD, GDX, UGL, ABX, HMY)

Gold ImageThe commodities call is back on.  It isn’t $100 oil, but it is for $1,000.00 gold.  We have two well respected market technicians calling for higher gold prices.  At 10:12 AM EST,  Spot Gold was trading at $982.34, a change of +$7.78 or +0.80%.  Simultaneously, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) was up 0.4% at $96.55.  The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), which is an ETF full of the top gold mining stocks, is up over 1.5% at $43.15 and has been all over the place this morning.  The Ultra Gold ProShares (NYSE: UGL), which tries to track twice the dollar performance of gold bullion, was up 0.75% at $36.95 on fairly thin volume.  Even Barrick Cold Corporation (NYSE: ABX), one of the largest miners and producers, was up 0.8% at $38.12 on active trading.  Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMY) is also up about 2.6% at $10.27, and this is despite J.P. Morgan downgrading this stock this morning to Hold from Buy.

One of our affiliates, INO.com, has an audio/video presentation by Adam Hewison that shows data back to 2001 and using current data to discuss the possibilities of a break-out coming up in the price of spot gold.  This notes how yesterday was a large day and is back up to the resistance line.  He still thinks that the $1,000.00 per ounce mark continues to be the big hurdle but that is possible to see even before the end of the week.

We also saw how Dennis Gartman yesterday was on CNBC talking about gold rallying more in foreign currency markets than the U.S. and he noted how something was going on there… particularly as gold went up the same day the bond market went up.  It seems to Gartman that the vote is a bet on gold but one against the economy.  What is funny is that Gartman thinks that everyone should have exposure to gold, but 2% to 3% of their portfolio or 5% in extreme cases.

And there is more to this yet, particularly as you go into 2010…
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Posted on: September 3, 2009 – 10:31 am in Charts, Commodities, Metals, Technical Analysis, Trading Alert, , , , ,

ETFs/ETNs Becoming Hybrid Closed-End Funds (USO, UNG, DBO, DXO, GAZ, GSG, GS, MS, GLD, SLV, JJC, FAS, FAZ)

Two months ago it was a carnal sin to suggest that certain exchange-traded funds or notes which track commodities would start trading more like a closed-end fund based upon supply and demand moves in shares caused by in-flows and out-flows of orders rather than solely by the direction of the prices of underlying commodities.  It has been our ongoing prediction that many commodity ETF/ETN products (and maybe some leveraged products as well) will become more like closed-end funds. Yet here under new regulations that have not even become gospel, we have seen new share issuances either denied or withdrawn from some of these ETF or ETN products.  And we are getting to see a premium in pricing to boot.  The United States Natural Gas Fund LP (NYSE: UNG) is the most classic example out there.  This ETN was at a 15% to 16% premium to the actual gas futures as investors are choosing to pay higher prices just for the ability to get exposure in the portfolio in case these prices rise.  The UNG has already confirmed that no new shares would be issued currently, and it is now so large that it controls closed to 20% of the benchmark natural gas contracts.  Limitations of this sort will drive a free-market theorist nuts, but the other reality is that this can also create large directional price moves that have nothing at all to do with fundamentals.

It turns out that the PowerShares DB Oil Fund (NYSE: DBO) traded about 0.3% higher than its actual value in crude futures late last week, and limits to shares could exaggerate premiums and discounts.  And the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long Exchange-Trade Note (NYSE: DXO) has also suspended issuing new shares. Barclays has also said that it would, at least temporarily, suspend new shares from being issued in its natural gas ETN called the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Natural Gas Subindex Total Return Exchange-Traded Notes (NYSE: GAZ).

Barclays also said that it would stop issuing new shares of the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Index Trust (NYSE: GSG) once the outstanding amount reached 55.9 million shares. If our data is accurate on the latest count, that looks to stand at roughly 52 million shares.  This is a semi-diversified product that tracks about 24 different commodities in energy, agriculture, industrial metals, prcious metals and livestock.  It is energy dominant, but this was a much more diversified fund that decided to limit its size.  This one also has traded at a premium to its underlying value.
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Posted on: August 24, 2009 – 11:30 am in Commodities, ETF, Metals, Oil & Gas, Regulation, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Charts vs. Fundamentals: How High Can Gold Go? (GG, ZLC, GLD, GDX, ABX)

Gold ImageThis morning’s move in gold may have seemed like an anomaly as gold briefly traded up over $970.00 per ounce.  The shiny yellow stuff rose $2.28 at $964.78 as of 10:42 AM EST.    What is interesting is how the companies and instruments around the shiny metal have been trading and what they have been reporting.  Gold Fields (NYSE: GG), Zale Corp. (NYSE: ZLC), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), and Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) are all of focus and interest here.

One of our affiliates has run a chart based audio visual analysis with the expectation that next week will be a solid week in gold and a note that we could pass the $1,000.00 mark.
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Posted on: August 6, 2009 – 11:18 am in Charts, Commodities, ETF, Luxury, Metals, , , , ,

Gold Trends Ahead of Miner Earnings (ABX, GG, GOLD, AU, GLD)

Gold ImageBen Bernanke thinks the risks of inflation may be overstated or those fearing major inflation may be misguided.  But that feeling is still not shared by many on Wall Street and also not shared by many on Main Street.  In fact, the recent return of gold prices off the $900 mark to almost $950 and the return of oil back close to $65.00 per barrel have many wondering if that higher Producer Pricing Index data from June could get a repeat either in July or in August.  Our guess is August rather than July, but there is still almost two trading weeks left in the month of July.  We have earnings coming from some majors in the next week and wanted to evaluate those trends for Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD), and Anglogold Ashanti Limited (NYSE: AU).  The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) of course offer the most direct investment in bullion without the operational risks tied to individual companies.
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Posted on: July 22, 2009 – 9:05 am in Commodities, Earnings, Metals, , , , ,

ETF/ETN Investors Have To Watch CFTC Speculation/Limitation Rules (USO, UNG, GAZ, OIL, JJC, GLD)

We are witnessing a pivotal moment in investing history.  After a decade of opening up all markets to the public and to more speculators with exchange traded products, some might soon be closed to speculators and investors alike.  If these markets are not closed off to the bulk of the public and investors and speculators, the writing on the wall is as obnoxious as street punk graffiti that access might become limited.  For better or worse, speculators are likely going to have a harder time.  This week marks a review by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that could have a broad impact on exchange traded funds and exchange traded notes.  The exchange traded funds and exchange traded notes which track energy are the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) and the United States Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG).

iPath DJ AIG Natural Gas Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: GAZ) is one we do not cover as frequently because of its volume. It seeks the returns potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified T-Bills. The index includes the Henry Hub Natural Gas futures contract traded on the NYMEX.  iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) is another one we do not cover as much because of its volume. This ETN seeks returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract plus the T-Bill rate of interest that could be earned on funds committed to the trading of the underlying contracts.

iPath DJ AIG Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: JJC) is not in energy, but it invests primarily in copper contracts and instruments that hopefully mirror the price of copper.  But do you expect that if regulation goes into curbing energy prices that the same effort would not be applied to metals and other inflationary hard goods?

The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) actually buys and sells gold bullion.  It is so large that it holds more gold than many large nations hold in reserves.  We could cover grains and other hard and soft goods as well.  The list almost feels endless.
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Posted on: July 7, 2009 – 12:46 pm in Commodities, ETF, Index, Oil & Gas, Regulation, , , , , ,

More Reverse Splits, or Just Closure, Possible or Needed in ETFs (FAS, FAZ, UYG, BAC, BHH, ARBA, IIH, AKAM, VRSN, UNG, USO, GLD, SDS, SPY, NYX, NDAQ)

Money Stack ImageWe have been large fans of exchange-traded funds, exchange-traded notes, and other exchange-traded instruments which are open for trade throughout the day that are allowed to be invested in just like a stock.  But with all new and growing markets, there are risks that need to be kept in check.  There are some leveraged ETF’s and their inverse counterparts which might need to see reverse share splits in the near future.  The notion of so many low-priced shares being so active may wreak havoc as the funds managing each ETF try to keep up with appropriate derivatives and in buying and selling shares of the components that are supposed to be the underlying securities.  There are even a few ETF’s which should probably just be closed down entirely and liquidated to holders.  Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: FAS) and The Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: FAZ) are both prime examples of ETFs which skew total daily exchange trading volume numbers because of low share prices today and massive trading volume.  This is not meant to pick on the fund groups because they created trading vehicles which they did not expect to see some of these moves.  There are many more ETFs and ETNs to consider here.

Direxion just announced a reverse split for another ETF yesterday, but not its two financial triple-leverage ETFs.  Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: FAS) is now back down close to $8.00 per share, yet it trades 250 million shares on an average day.  The Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: FAZ) is barely above $5.00 and trades more than 200 million shares on an average day.  So between the FAS and FAZ, you have an average of more than 450 million shares, and at today’s prices that is close to $3 billion worth of nominal value.

This review discusses a portion of the ETFs and ETNs and the ones under discussion today, along with underlying key companies, are Ultra Financials ProShares (NYSE: UYG), Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), B2B Internet HOLDRs (AMEX: BHH), Ariba, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARBA), Internet Capital Group (NASDAQ: ICGE), Internet Infrastructure HOLDRs (AMEX: IIH), VeriSign Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSN), Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM), United States Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG), United States Oil (NYSE: USO), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (NYSE: SDS), SPDRs (NYSE: SPY), New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: NYX) and the NASDAQ OMX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ).
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Posted on: June 23, 2009 – 12:42 pm in Banking, Commodities, ETF, Index, Oil & Gas, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Silver Trumping Gold as Inflation Hedge (SLV, JJC, GLD)

Since the beginning of the year, the price for copper has nearly doubled, silver has risen by nearly a third, and gold has added more than 20%. Silver is in the process of having one of its best performances in a month.  Gold at $970.00 an ounce has a nice ring to it, but the poor man’s inflationary hedge of silver at $15.50 compares to lows of almost $12.00 earlier this month.

The changes in iPath DJ AIG Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE:JJC) and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:GLD) both lag the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) by more than 10%, although all are up.

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Posted on: May 29, 2009 – 9:30 am in Commodities, ETF, Metals, , ,

At $62 Oil & $900 Gold, ETF’s Compete In Reflation Trade (DBA, GLD, SLV, JJC, USO, DBC)

Gold ImageOil Well ImageMoney Stack ImageWhile the Fed has noted nothing about inflationary pressures, we have started seeing yet another return to the reflation trade as the economy seems to be bottoming out and all the new printed money comes  into the systems in the months (and years) ahead.  With gold back over $900 and oil back over $60, that is of little to no surprise.  The easiest way for the public to participate in this is via the active exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded notes.  We track the base funds which are liquid and are not leveraged such as PowerShares DB Agriculture (NYSE: DBA), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), iPath DJ AIG Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: JJC), United States Oil (NYSE: USO), and the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (NYSE: DBC).
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Posted on: May 20, 2009 – 1:42 pm in Agriculture, Commodities, ETF, Economy, Metals, Trading Alert, , , , , ,

Gold ETF’s Try To Interpret Anglogold Earnings (AU, GLD, GDX)

Gold ImageWith gold back well above the $900.00 mark, it seems that the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) are trying to interpret a key gold earnings report.  South African gold miner AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE:AU) reported first quarter 2009 profits of $150 million and EPS of $0.42, substantially better than fourth quarter 2008 loss of $17 million (EPS loss of -$0.05).

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Posted on: May 15, 2009 – 8:09 am in Commodities, ETF, Metals, , ,

Will Gold Get the Flu? (GLD, GDX, IAU)

gold-imageGold is not being used by industry right now and demand for jewelry remains highly unexciting, but many traders are still using the shiny metal stuff for the ultimate flight to safety for protecting against uncertainty and inflation.  Some ETFs we track, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX), and iShares COMEX Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU) were all off around 1% in pre-market trading this morning.

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Posted on: April 27, 2009 – 8:57 am in Commodities, ETF, Metals, , ,

Gold Production Expected to Fall (AU, GLD, GDX)

gold-image31AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE:AU) has indicated that first quarter 2009 production will reach just 1.1 million ounces of gold, 2.5% lower than previous guidance. The company has maintained its previous guidance for production for the full year at 4.9-5.0 million ounces at a cash cost of $435-$450/ounce.
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Posted on: April 2, 2009 – 9:21 am in Commodities, ETF, Metals, , ,