Effectively, the CME is lowering the cost to trade crude oil, gold, silver, copper, and a few other commodities. So far this has had no impact on prices of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), nor in the iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: JJC).

In the past, margin costs were raised on traders as an effort to curb runaway trading to the upside by making it more expensive for traders and speculators to trade energy and metals.  In short, driving up the cost of poker creates fewer gamblers. So what happens when they make it cheaper to trade?

The full details are here.

JON C. OGG

Charles Biderman noted, “The U.S., Europe, and Japan are printing enormous sums to pay their bills and in turn are devaluing their paper currencies. I doubt that’s going to change because it’s much easier for central bankers to print money than it is for politicians to cut spending.”

Biderman went on to note that gold and silver prices are going to skyrocket from retail money chasing a limited supply of the metals. On silver he noted, ““The gains in silver could be particularly strong because the silver market is much smaller than the gold market. Silver ETFs have only one-ninth the assets of gold ETFs.”

The current unemployment data from today is signaling that the Fed Funds rate hikes could come toward the end of 2013 now rather than the end of 2014, but that is one-month data.

TrimTabs goes on to note that monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank has helped push up gold and silver prices much more than stock prices.  He even noted that since QE2 was announced, the gold ETF is up 41% versus the 30% gains for the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) gain of 30% after including dividends.

The report even noted that in the past three weeks alone there has been a $1.4 billion inflow into gold ETFs by investors while silver ETFs saw smaller inflows. 

JON C. OGG

Kinross is making a bit of a comeback on speculation that the company may now be a takeover target. Larger Canadian gold miners Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) and Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) are included in the number of possible buyers, as are Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU). Another potential buyer is London-traded Polyus Gold International Ltd. according to a report at Bloomberg News.

Kinross acquired Canadian miner Red Back in 2010 for $7.8 billion, and the deal included the Tasiast mine in Tanzania. The Tanzanian mine is the cause of the goodwill writedown, but the simple fact is that Kinross paid way too much for Red Back. Kinross has admitted that itself.

Of the potential buyers, Polyus might be the one to take most seriously. The Russian company has said that it wants to become one of the three largest gold miners in the world. Acquiring Kinross would achieve that goal.

Kinross might also be a good acquisition for Newmont, which currently has few growth prospects according to an industry analyst cited by Bloomberg: “Newmont has no growth, whereas Kinross has plenty of growth projects.”

Kinross is now trading at around $10/share though its asset value is about double that. That’s still a $20 billion+ deal at a time when production costs are rising and the price of gold going forward is unclear.

Shares of Kinross are up about 1.5% at noon today at $10.25 in a 52-week range of $9.96-$18.25. Shares of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) are up 0.27% at $161.65 in a 52-week range of $127.80-$185.85.

Paul Ausick

The firm downgraded price targets of copper, nickel, zinc, and alumina as well as part of the broader macro-market call in metals.  As far as the gold target, Morgan Stanley cut the 2012 target by about 16% to $1,845 per ounce.  On silver, the call was down almost 30% to $35.50 per ounce.

Neither are hurting any market gains, but it was interesting to see that the cut in silver was the highest, followed by gold.  The other cuts in the other metals seen in the call were to the tune of about 3 percentage points to about 13 percentage points. These markets are reacting to currencies and economic data more than economist and price target calls.  Still, these were worth a closer look.

JON C. OGG

Over $50 billion has flowed into bank savings accounts in the last month, with another $30 billion going into bond funds.  Rather than income, “Safety” is currently the most important criteria for investors at this time per the TrimTabs report.

What you guessed on gold is true: Over the past month $2.2 billion left the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) ETF.  TrimTabs also pointed out that another $800 million has flowed out of the healthcare ETF called the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLV).  When you consider that the Gold ETF is worth over $70 billion it might not matter so much, but the healthcare ETF has a current value of only about $4.4 billion per Yahoo! Finance data.  The iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (NYSE: FXI) was also said to lose the same as the healthcare ETF, and its market cap is listed as about $6.3 billion.

While money has continued to flow out of U.S. equity mutual funds, it is a bit interesting that the biggest inflow over the last month was in the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) with a $5.9 billion inflow.  Its market cap is about $86 billion as of now.  Charles Biderman noted that it was those inflows which “surely supported the S&P 500’s 6% pop in price.”

Another gainer was the $800 million inflows into the tech ETF via the Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK).  The market cap today is about $7.45 billion, but it is interesting that investors went into this one just in time for so many technology leaders to issue earnings warnings even though the time measured showed a 3% rise in that one.

iShares MSCI EAFE Index (NYSE: EFA) rose 3.3% in the time tracked and it saw an inflow of about $700 million in new funds versus its market cap of $36.3 billion.  This is effectively the international equity large cap index.

Biderman expects that new funds will continue to head into bond funds and savings accounts, but he noted that January is traditionally one of the biggest months for new inflows into equity mutual funds. He said, “As a result of more money chasing less new shares, the S&P 500 usually has gone up not only during January but most of the time right up until tax time in April.”

Read Also: Top Biotechs For 2012

Read Also: REITs For Model Dividend Portfolio in 2012

JON C. OGG

After taking a look at the “GLD” chart the concerns are growing.  Since its major move at the end of 2008 there had not been a single time that the SPDR Gold Trust shares had violated the key 200-day moving average.  If you look at the mining ETF via the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), the gold bulls may argue that the mining sector violated the 200-day moving average on multiple occasions and still traded higher!  Some technicians may watch other metrics on the GLD for long-term trends but many will fear that this means that the monstrous run higher at a minimum cannot recover at the same pace.  Other technicians may argue that gold has peaked outright, just like Dennis Gartman has raised concern about recently.

It is at least somewhat interesting that Goldman Sachs recently lowered the ratings of AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) as well as Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD) this morning, both were downgraded to “Sell” from an already cautious “Neutral” rating. AngloGold is somehow up almost 1% at $41.52 today and Rangold is down 0.3% at $101.50.  Meanwhile, Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) was recently raised to “Sector Outperform” from “Sector Perform” by Scotia Capital.

What is so confusing for many gold bugs and investors alike is that the news headlines would make you think that gold has everything going for it.  Iran flexing its muscle… The Euro Zone debt crisis… The possibility that the Euro disappears or is altered… Sovereign debt credit rating downgrades… China’s central bank buying gold… Uncertainty… and more.  It is the rise of the U.S. Dollar again that is capping gold’s positive aspects.  Besides that, gold reached the point that many market participants just cannot afford to use the metal for anything now. 

If you go back to the “GLD” as the measurement for most spot gold investors today, that would be $157.36 as to where the 200-day moving average is now versus $154.90 after a 0.2% drop today.  The “GLD” chart below from stockcharts.com shows a 3-year history for our readers.

JON C. OGG

Dennis Gartman has already sounded the call for a bear market.  With the news that China was buying more gold and with other central banks adding gold, he said that bullish news not followed by positive price action spells a bear market.  For how long is another issue, but that is the call for now.

The big issue is the rising U.S. Dollar against the Euro as the $1.30 threshold was breached this morning.  The Euro hit a low not seen in almost a year, and frankly it begs the issue over “The Parity Call” again.  We would make the reminder that “not all parities are created equally” as the launch value of the Euro more than a decade ago was $1.18.

As far as the chart, we noted a key breakdown under the 50-day moving average just on Monday.  That has gone from bad to worse.  Much worse, if you look at the stockcharts.com chart below for the performance the 50-day issue is now a sideline event.  GOLD, VIA THE ‘GLD,’ HAS BUSTED UNDER ITS 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE!!!  If you use static figures, GLD’s 50-day moving average is $166.10 and the 200-day moving average is $157.14.

Gold was above $1700 last Friday and it is down around $1580 now.  The “GLD” was trying to get back above $170.00 just last week, unsuccessfully, with a Friday close of $166.40… If today’s drop holds then the new price is $153.50 or so after a 3% drop yet again this Wednesday.

As a reminder, gold pays no dividend and it is really hard to eat or drink.  That is the most ultimate skeptics will tell you at any rate.

As far as silver, this was north of $32.00 an ounce on Friday and now a 7.5% drop today has silver back around $29.15 per ounce.  The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) has fallen from above $31.00 to $28.33 today.  Let’s just say that The Devil’s Metal is becoming a very appropriate name.

If you want to see it even worse… look at the stock option trading in the “GLD” and “SLV” as of Noon today… The GLD put option volume is almost double that of the call volume traded and the SLV is even higher than that.

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A snapshot from Kitco shows that spot gold is down $33.90 or -1.95% at $1709.20.  The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is trading down 1.9% at $166.20 so far today.  In dollar terms, this has gold challenging a floor put in just two days ago but the stock on a longer-term basis of the last three months shows that gold could just as easily rise or fall from here in the coming days. The stockcharts.com chart on the SPDR Gold (see below) shows a different story where the 50-day moving average is becoming a magnet.  For the GLD at $166.20, the 50-day moving average is $165.97.  Its key 200-day moving average is all the was down at $156.71.

The move today, along with the weak stock market today, is sending shares of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) down by 2.3% at $57.58.  As you might expect, the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) is more volatile and more leveraged since it deals with junior miners and it is down 4.3% at $28.59.

The Gabelli Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust (NYSE: GGN) is down only 1.3% at $15.95 on the day.

Gold continues to trade with an identity crisis.  The dollar has become the safe haven now that gold has pulled back and likely because it is up so much from a year ago.  Gold could have traded even worse today and perhaps that 50-day moving average in the GLD is helping to keep it from getting much worse.

JON C. OGG

Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: FAS) is proving that financials can still manage to rally with the market.  The move is up 9.% at $53.87, mostly erasing the damage of last week.

Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX) is a beneficiary if Europe’s woes may find a beginning of the end.  This ETF is up 5.8% at $29.12, and the triple-leveraged Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: RUSL) is up a whopping 17.1% at $40.39.

SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond (NYSE: JNK) is winning as spreads of junk bonds (and investment grade) tighten over Treasuries.  These often act more like stocks than real treasury-tracking bonds, particularly when credit spreads are so wide.

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) proves yet again that it is not just tracking gold as the fear trade.  Gold is becoming a risk-asset again and now mat be more tied to the performance of the S&P 500 Index rather than as “the fear trade” which we were so used to seeing.

JON C. OGG

While investment demand was the key driver to increased gold demand during the past quarter, it is central bank gold buying and selling that is going to be a key factor for demand ahead. The council projected that central bank demand is expected to continue as creditworthiness woes of western governments has come front and center. In fact, the council also cited many new central bank entrants have emerged as they move to diversify reserves. Further, the council sees this increased central bank activity trend continuing into 2012.

24/7 Wall St. reviewed the top 13 nations that hold the lion’s share of the world’s gold reserves, according to the World Gold Council’s International Financial Statistics. Of course, many nations will have new gold reserve data in 2012. And some of the data remained unchanged from prior months. Our aim here is to show which nations probably are increasing or lowering their gold reserves into 2012 and why.

The European credit crisis and emerging market weakness are what is likely behind central banks’ demand. Total gold demand rose 6% in the third quarter from a year earlier to 1,053.9 tonnes. This equates to roughly $57.7 billion — an all-time high in value terms. Investment was the large driver for increased gold demand, while jewelry demand was soft.

These are The 13 Countries That own The World’s Gold.