Costco Sales

Costco (NASDAQ: COST) continues its extraordinary run as the most successful big-box retailer. Its club membership system has bettered the more traditional store operations of Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT). Net sales for the quarter that ended May 6 increased 8% from last year to $21.85 billion. Net sales for the first 36 weeks increased 10% to $65.54 billion. Same-store sales were up 5% for the most recent quarter. Costco’s shares trade at $83.50, up from a 52-week low of $70.22. Costco’s revenue per employee was $569,488, compared to $206,117 for Walmart.

Best IPOs

A quick review of the 25 largest U.S. IPOs ever shows how badly Facebook has done in early trading. Most of the companies on the list have tremendous revenue, traditional business plans that they have been able to freshen, and large profits. Among these are Visa (NYSE: V), UPS (NYSE: UPS), General Motors (NYSE: GM), MetLife (NYSE: MET) and Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU). The thing that stands out most about the list is how few tech companies it has. Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is on the list, of course. But most of the companies are financial ones or firms that are manufacturing based. (Data from CapitalIQ.)

Facebook Investigation

The debate over whether some large investors were warned about a revenue downgrade of Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) continues. Several media have carried stories about Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) passing on numbers that showed lowered forecasts for earnings and revenue in the second quarter and the full year. The attorney general of Massachusetts has begun an investigation into whether information was selectively disclosed. Morgan Stanley insists that it was in compliance with all the regulations that set rules for IPO behavior. Even if Morgan Stanley makes its case successfully, the news likely will keep individual investors out of the market. Many of these investors have turned to mutual funds, exchange traded funds and fixed income paper to protect their interests. That behavior has been reinforced by the Facebook IPO.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Among these are Visa (NYSE: V), UPS (NYSE: UPS), GM (NYSE: GM), MetLife (NYSE: MET), and Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) The thing that stands out most about the list is how few tech companies it has.

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is on the list, of course. But, most of the companies are financial ones, or firms that are manufacturing based. (Data from CapitalIQ)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Facebook IPO Mess

The Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) IPO mess has worsened considerably in just 24 hours. The federal government will examine why analysts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) lowered their financial forecasts for the social network just ahead of the IPO. The concern is that favored clients knew about the changes, but the broader investment world did not. Nasdaq claims that if it had known how badly its technical glitches would be, it would have suspended the IPO until there was full confidence shares could trade smoothly. There are also rumors that Facebook’s CFO David Ebersman decided at the last minute to increase the number of shares that would be offered by 25% without enough conversation with his entire team of bankers. Ebersman discussed his plans with lead underwriter Morgan Stanley. But the decision caught many large investors by surprise and caused them to wonder whether the market had enough of an appetite for all of the new shares. Based on how Facebook has traded since the IPO, the answer is no.

Fiat and Mazda

Fiat and Mazda will build a small convertible together. Fiat is the controlling shareholder of Chrysler. The deal is an example of how large car companies that face slow sales in Europe and slowing sales in China have started to band together to save costs. General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Peugeot plan to jointly operate production facilities in Europe. GM’s Opel division is bleeding money in the region. Peugeot is one of the most financially troubled European car companies. GM also has made in investment in Peugeot. And trouble is probably what binds Fiat and Mazda together. Fiat’s sales in Europe have collapsed. Mazda sales run well behind Japanese rivals Toyota (NYSE: TM), Honda (NYSE: HMC) and Nissan. Nissan already has a close alliance with Renault. Fiat and Mazda do not have the capacity to easily develop many new models on their own.

Getty Images for Sale

Private equity firm Hellman & Friedman, which owns Getty Images, has begun the process to sell the company it bought for $2.4 billion in 2008. It reckons using investment banks Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), it can get $4 billion. Getty has one of the world’s great inventories of photos, some of them artistic icons taken by photographers years ago. The company gets a ready stream of licensing revenue for use of its inventory. The Financial Times points out that there have already been a number of deals in the sector. That by itself may hurt interest and bring down the price that outside investors would pay.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Moody’s said in its report, “GM’s credit quality continues to improve and the company remains on track to regain an investment grade credit rating over the course of the next 12 months.”   The outlook and rating reflect the highly competitive North American business model that the company is expected to maintain.  Moody;’s expects that GM will leverage its improved cost structure as it brings new product introductions to market.

Another positive is that the company has a strong position in high-growth Asian markets such as China. Here is where investors should just go ahead and expect an upgrade as long as the global slowing doesn’t get too deeply in the way: “These strengths should enable GM to generate credit metrics that could be supportive of an investment grade rating in the near term.”

Some challenges with the current Ba1 rating are execution risks, increasing the use of global platforms, and improving the competitive position of its European operations.  Moody’s also included, “Upward movement in GM’s rating could be supported if the company continues to execute its operating and financial plan, and if there is moderation in the economic and financial uncertainty in Europe.”

GM shares closed won 0.2% at $21.50 today, but shares are up 0.7% at $21.65.  Is it possible to have an investment grade rating when the U.S. taxpayers own such a large stake in GM?

JON C. OGG

The Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) gets the nod from some for the exchange’s inability to handle the volume of trades when the stock first began trading. Lead underwriter Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) gets its share of harsh words too. Even General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) gets in line for some blame after cancelling its Facebook advertising deal. And non-stop coverage of the IPO surely could have given one the impression that this was the deal of the century.

But if you bought the stock, the real bad guy is looking back at you from your mirror. We tried to warn you.

Facebook’s shares are down about -6% at $32.01 after 20 minutes of trading this morning.

Paul Ausick

The fall-off of Facebook shares can be traced to a number of things — whether or not they are legitimate. The first is that a some traders believe Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Facebook decided, at the last minute, to flood the market with stock to raise more money for the social network. There is a rumor that Morgan Stanley cut Facebook revenue forecasts right before the IPO. Major trading issues in the Nasdaq (NASDAQ: NDAQ) system, which delayed orders and rattled investors, might have been another cause. Two days before the IPO, General Motors (NYSE: GM) pulled its ads from Facebook. That seemed to be a bit of revenge, although no one can figure out why. And, perhaps most damaging, analysts attacked Facebook’s inability to make money on its mobile presence, which raised the question of its long-term viability as a growth company.

Zynga faced none of these problems. Its only trouble was being tethered to Facebook because it gets so much revenue from the social network. Facebook’s mobile strategy eventually could effect Zynga, but the balance of the long list of reasons Facebook shares declined really do not apply to the game firm. Zynga‘s shares may have fallen consistently since mid-April, but Wall St. had begun to warm to the company after its recent, better-than-expected earnings. Citigroup (NYSE: C) started coverage of the game firm with a “buy” and a $12 price target.

The Zynga share drop is no different from the reaction traders have when they sell Ford (NYSE: F) because of poor GM earnings, or drop Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) when McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) announces poor earnings. As often as not, two companies in a related sector have very different financial results, for good reasons most of the time. GM has strong sales in China; Ford does not. Yum!’s operations in the U.S. do poorly; America is a stronghold for McDonald’s. Pairings like Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT) or Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD) are often not pairs at all. If they really were parallel in almost every way, management skills would make no difference to results.

Zynga and Facebook may trade as a pair, but they are not one.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Facebook’s management may have insisted that a $38 valuation was important because they wanted to raise as much money as possible, even if that risked only a small increase in its shares. Many managements of companies that have IPOs are criticized for “leaving money on the table” when the value of their shares rise quickly. If shares were priced on the early market appetite that drove prices up sharply, these managements could have put more money onto their balance sheets.

Nothing in Facebook’s financial fundamentals changed in the past two weeks. If anything, its valuation should have been undermined some by news that General Motors (NYSE: GM) dropped its advertising from the social network because it was ineffective. Investors continued to worry about revelations that Facebook had made little progress in its attempt to get revenue from the extremely important wireless market. What kind of management would fail to do well in what is arguably the most important online platform? And shouldn’t the trouble have caused the market to back down from extraordinary EPS and sales multiples set for the stock?

Until only recently, Facebook was worth as little as $28 by the calculations of its bankers. That is 26% below the IPO price and where the stock traded on its first day. And underwriter Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) supported the shares above the $38 level the first day of trading. At some point, that support will end.

Stocks are only worth what the market will pay for them. That is almost too obvious to mention. Facebook shares were worth as little as $28 earlier this month. Someone blundered in setting the price later. That blunder means the share price was set too high.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The heads of Samsung and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) will discuss a settlement to patent wars between the two companies over smartphone IP. (Reuters)

General Motors’ (NYSE: GM) Opel faces a harsh reaction from workers arising from plant closures. (Reuters)

Nasdaq (NASDAQ: NDAQ) will change its trading systems after trouble with the Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) IPO. (Reuters)

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) says its has Chinese approval to buy Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI). (Reuters)

Dalian Wanda Group, based in China, will buy the AMC movie chain for $2.6 billion. (WSJ)

Greece’s conservative parties, which favor austerity, begin to show improvements in U.S. polls. (WSJ)

The European Union’s José Manuel Barroso says Greece should expect pressure over austerity to remain high despite indications otherwise from the G8 meeting. (WSJ)

Some accountants say that Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) costs misrepresent the firm’s financial position. (WSJ)

The G8 meeting and the opinions of EU leaders may press Merkel to allow Europe to aid some large banks in the region. (WSJ)

UK and US bank regulators prepare for any failure of several financial firms, which include Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) and Barclays (NYSE: BCS). (FT)

China begins to cancel or delay some commodities imports — another sign its economy has slowed. (FT)

UK Prime Minister David Cameron says the EU should prepare for the departure of Greece. (FT)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Oil Prices Fall

WTI crude reached a six-month low, which is positive news for nearly everyone other than the oil and gas industry. The price moved below $92, down from close to $110 less than 90 days ago. One reason is that U.S. supplies of oil are higher than expected. But the most substantial reason is belief that demand in Europe will be historically low for this time of year. A drop in the rapid expansion in China’s gross domestic product may also be a cause for lower prices. The most important effect on the U.S. economy is that gasoline prices are plummeting. The cost for a gallon of regular based on a nationwide average calculated by the AAA is $3.728, compared to $3.727 the day before and $3.907 a month ago. The fall from the year ago price of $3.955 is extraordinary. The price of premium appears ready to drop below $4 for the first time in months. There is school of thought among some economists that whatever factors might slow U.S. GDP growth in the middle of this year will be partially offset by the lower cost of gas for American families that live paycheck to paycheck. With regular gas above $4, many could not be consumers of anything other than bare necessities. As gas prices fall, that should change.

GM and Facebook

Investors do not seem to care that General Motors (NYSE: GM) has dropped Facebook as an advertising medium. The press made a great deal of the news, but GM’s investment was only a few million dollars over the past year. Maybe skeptics about Facebook’s future reason that other very large advertisers will be unhappy with the result of their marketing on the social network and will withdraw as well. But, in the face of the GM news, Facebook as raised the number of shares it will sell in its initial public offering to 421 million, according to several media reports. That is up 25% from the number expected just a few days ago. This would set the amount of money collected by Facebook at $16 billion and value the company at over $110 billion. Many analysts believe that Facebook’s valuation is much too high. But that has not stopped a nearly insatiable appetite for ownership in the company. Perhaps Facebook users want to be shareholders are well. It works that way with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), so there is a precedent.

Relational Investors vs. Pepsi

Shareholder activist firm Relational Investors has bought $600 million of PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) shares, according to the Wall Street Journal. Large companies are not immune from the kind of attacks recently experienced by AOL (NYSE: AOL) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). The market has been concerned about the stewardship of Pepsi CEO Indra Nooyi for some time. Soda sales have dropped in many parts of the world, in part because of health concerns. That has caused Pepsi and rival Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) to rely more on sales of bottled water, noncarbonated drinks and snacks. Soda sales have been so huge for so long that replacing them is almost impossible. PepsiCo is too large for almost any one shareholder to attack. Its market capitalization is more than $100 billion, so the Relational Investors position is inconsequential, whether or not the group has reasonable concerns.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Among those firms headquartered in Europe, the worst results were from Fiat (off 11.5% in April) and Renault (down 15.1%). At least Fiat owns the majority of Chrysler, which has surging sales in the U.S. And Renault has a partnership with Nissan that has done well recently. But neither relationship with another manufacturer will solve the basic problem of sluggish sales in Europe. Each company must find a solution. If the industry’s past is any indication, these corporations will have to battle with unions and governments in order to sharply cut employment and production. The industry will look like it did in the U.S. in 2008 and 2009. For Fiat and Renault to balance expenses with sales, they will need to gut parts of their production capacities.

General Motors’ (NYSE: GM) European sales fell 10.9% in April. Results from its flagship Opel/Vauxhall division were down 16.7%. GM has made it clear it will need to slash capacity in Europe and has sent some of its top executives to oversee the process. Unions, and governments in nations where GM has plants, already have said they will strongly oppose the moves. Long strikes and pressure from political officials will make the implementation of GM’s programs very messy. But the world’s largest car company probably has decided already that the turmoil is the only path to solve its EU problem. Renault and Fiat may need to make similar decisions.

The car industry in Europe does look like the one in the U.S. did several years ago. There is an essential difference, though. The American economy recovered from a recession, and people began to replace their cars or become first time buyers. Much of Europe is headed back into recession. The car markets in the area will be troubled for a long time, and there will be violent battles to settle whether manufacturers in Europe can run financially viable operations.

Douglas A. McIntyre