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Why Gold Traders Are So Concerned (GLD, GDX, AU, GOLD, ABX)

Administrator — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 19:40:28 +0000

Asking a technician or chartist about directional movement is often mind-numbing for fundamental investors. Basing future price movement prediction solely on the past without a care about the underlying fundamentals and without a care about the news headlines confuses many investors. That being said, most investors at least are cognizant of some chart events being important or at least that sometimes they should at least review of chart. After last week’s gold pricing action many investors may be very nervous if you look at the chart of the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD).

After taking a look at the “GLD” chart the concerns are growing. Since its major move at the end of 2008 there had not been a single time that the SPDR Gold Trust shares had violated the key 200-day moving average. If you look at the mining ETF via the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), the gold bulls may argue that the mining sector violated the 200-day moving average on multiple occasions and still traded higher! Some technicians may watch other metrics on the GLD for long-term trends but many will fear that this means that the monstrous run higher at a minimum cannot recover at the same pace. Other technicians may argue that gold has peaked outright, just like Dennis Gartman has raised concern about recently.

It is at least somewhat interesting that Goldman Sachs recently lowered the ratings of AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) as well as Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD) this morning, both were downgraded to “Sell” from an already cautious “Neutral” rating. AngloGold is somehow up almost 1% at $41.52 today and Rangold is down 0.3% at $101.50. Meanwhile, Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) was recently raised to “Sector Outperform” from “Sector Perform” by Scotia Capital.

What is so confusing for many gold bugs and investors alike is that the news headlines would make you think that gold has everything going for it. Iran flexing its muscle… The Euro Zone debt crisis… The possibility that the Euro disappears or is altered… Sovereign debt credit rating downgrades… China’s central bank buying gold… Uncertainty… and more. It is the rise of the U.S. Dollar again that is capping gold’s positive aspects. Besides that, gold reached the point that many market participants just cannot afford to use the metal for anything now.

If you go back to the “GLD” as the measurement for most spot gold investors today, that would be $157.36 as to where the 200-day moving average is now versus $154.90 after a 0.2% drop today. The “GLD” chart below from stockcharts.com shows a 3-year history for our readers.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Charts, Currency, Luxury, Metals, Technical Analysis Tagged: ABX, AU, GDX, GLD, gold

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AKS, AU, FTE, GGP, HON, LAZ, PNW, GOLD, TEF, TEVA, TMK, UNFI, URI, MTN, WCG)

Administrator — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 13:23:47 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this Monday morning.

AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS) Raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) Cut to Sell from Neutral by Goldman Sachs.

France Telecom S.A. (NYSE: FTE) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.
General Growth Properties Inc. (NYSE: GGP) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE: HON) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.

Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LAZ) Raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (NYSE: PNW) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD) Cut to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Telefonica, S.A. (NYSE: TEF) Cut to Neutral from Overweight at HSBC.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NASDAQ: TEVA) Reiterated Buy with $52 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) Raised to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
United Natural Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: UNFI) Raised to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity.
United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE: URI) Raised to Top Pick at RBC.
Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE: MTN) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
WellCare Health Plans, Inc. (NYSE: WCG) named as value stock of the day at Zacks Investment Research.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AKS, AU, FTE, GGP, gold, HON, LAZ, MTN, PNW, TEF, TEVA, TMK, UNFI, URI, WCG

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (BIG, CHS, DAL, ERII, PPG, PLXS, GOLD, RGLD, SD, SWK, SPWRA, RIG, TSL, VICL, VVUS, YRCW)

Administrator — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 12:25:18 +0000

These are some of Friday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush.
Chico’s FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Energy Recovery Inc. (NASDAQ: ERII) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE: PPG) named as Value stock of the Day at Zacks.
Plexus Corporation (NASDAQ: PLXS) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD) Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.
Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank.
SandRidge Energy, Inc. (NYSE: SD) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (NYSE: SWK) Raised to Buy at Argus.
SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) Cut to Underperform at Macquarie.
Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) Cut to Underperform at Macquarie.
Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) Cut to Neutral at Macquarie.
Vical Inc. (NASDAQ: VICL) Started as Outperform with $7 target at Credit Suisse.
VIVUS, Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) Started as Outperform with $15 target at Credit Suisse.
YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) Raised to Hold fro Sell at Stifel Nicolaus.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: BIG, CHS, DAL, ERII, gold, PLXS, PPG, RGLD, RIG, SD, SPWRA, SWK, TSL, VICL, VVUS, YRCW

In Shaky Times, Precious Metals Funds That Thrive (GLD, GDX, SLV, USERX, KGC, OCMGX, GG, FSAGX, ABX, NCM, GOLDX, GOLD)

Administrator — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 12:10:19 +0000

Owning gold or silver has been tricky up until recent years. It has also been a wild ride. Now with the flourishing ETFs, investors can buy the most liquid gold play in SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) or they can go after the miners via the liquid Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX). iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) is also now an easy way to buy silver exposure. But what about the mutual funds that invest in exposure to precious metals?

Investors should use these more for a review rather than any quick trading ideas because anything tied to gold and silver this Friday is taking it on the chin.

Zacks has a report noting that these funds “can be a source of comfort to investors when markets are heading south and the economy is passing through choppy weather.” The aim is for higher consistent returns that outperform stocks. These act as diversification and as protection against inflation. Zacks has offered a list of its top 5 rated precious metals funds this morning, all of which have the Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy).

U.S. Global Investors Gold and Precious Metals (USERX) invests in companies whose primary operations are related to gold and other precious metals. The precious metals mutual fund has a ten year annualized return of 26.34%. The precious metals mutual fund has a minimum initial investment of $5,000 and an expense ratio of 1.80% compared to a category average of 1.40%. After looking elsewhere, the three month return on Google was noted as +10.2% and the year-to-date return was -6.5%. Its top holding was listed as Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC) at almost 7.5% of the fund.

OCM Gold (OCMGX) invests in companies in the gold mining industry and may also invest in precious metals producers. The precious metals fund has a five year annualized return of 15.52%. Google listed its 3 month return as 17.8% and a year-to-date return of almost 6%. More than 12% of its assets were in Goldcorp, Inc. (NYSE: GG).

Fidelity Select Gold (FSAGX) invests in companies whose principal operations are related to gold, and it also invests in gold bullion and coins. Up to 25% of the fund’s assets may be invested in gold and other precious metals through a wholly-owned subsidiary. Zacks noted a return of 20.09% in the last one year period. Google noted a return of +14.3% in the last three months and a return of +3.3% year-to-date. The top three holdings are each 10% or more of the weighting and they are in Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX), Goldcorp, Inc. (NYSE: GG), and Newcrest Mining Limited (NYSE: NCM).

GAMCO Gold AAA (GOLDX) invests at least 80% of its assets in companies which engage in gold-related activities, but a large portion of its assets are in foreign securities. Zacks noted a three year annualized return of 20.68%. Google noted a 3-month return of +17.7% and a year-to-date return of almost +4%. The top two assets in the fund account for more than 23% of the entire fund and they are Randgold Resources, Ltd. ADR (NASDAQ: GOLD) and Newcrest Mining Limited (NYSE: NCM).

Unfortunately for the report, this is coming on a morning that gold and silver are getting hammered and are bring down anything and everything tied to them. Here are all of Zacks #1 Rank funds.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Commodities, ETF, Metals, Mutual Funds, Personal Finance Tagged: ABX, FSAGX, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, GOLDX, KGC, NCM, OCMGX, SLV, USERX

Top 5 Analyst Calls of the Week (AMZN, NFLX, PHM, GOLD, SIRI)

Administrator — Sat, 26 Mar 2011 14:17:06 +0000

We had another crazy week in the markets with shares on a tear. There were many key analyst calls that moved shares this week. We have identified five specific analyst calls which stood out. These calls covered Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), PulteGroup Inc. (NYSE: PHM), Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ: GOLD) and SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI).

We have added in the summaries and the basis for the calls on each and added in color of our own and shown what the impact was from each call.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) may feel like a ‘late to the party’ call but Jeff Bezos saw his online merchant empire get upgraded this last week. It was William Blair which raised its rating to “Outperform” from “Market Perform” based on the company’s ability to grow market share and it holding up well from brick-and-mortar competition. Now that mobile commerce is finally starting to come into play it sees this adding more growth as well. To show how much the call helped out, shares closed at $165.32 on Wednesday before the report and the stock closed at $171.01 the following day.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) may be another one which feels like a ‘late to the party’ call now. Credit Suisse raised its ratings on Tuesday to Outperform with a $280 price target. Shares were at $212.84 before the call and closed at $221.39 after the call. Shares even closed at $230.01 on Friday as the market rose each day.

PulteGroup Inc. (NYSE: PHM) is one that is either crazy or genius. Despite the awful numbers we have been seeing from anything tied to housing, Goldman Sachs put Pulte on its prized “Conviction Buy List” on Wednesday and the firm called it the only name in housing where investors are paid to wait for the housing recovery. Shares were at $7.14 before the call and the stock closed up at $7.40 after the call and rose each day to close at $7.57 for the week. More Details on that Call.

Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ: GOLD) saw a great report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch this week. The report did actually lower some targets and this was a “reiterated Buy rating” but earnings estimates were raised and the report was looking for nearly 50% upside. This one had only limited impact but it is the upside of almost 50% that makes the call stand out so much from the crowd. More Details on that Call.

SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) may have seen a massive exponential run since the penny stock days where implosion was possible in 2008 and 2009, but one analyst threw in his towel this week. After a lawsuit was filed by Howard Stern for back stock options, Wunderlich Securities cuts its previous “Buy” rating down to “Hold.” Shares were at $1.71 before the call and closed down at $1.67 after the call. Investors ignored the caution with a strong market as the stock closed at $1.72 on Friday. We would note that Wunderlich was one of the firms that caused a serious rise before with an analyst upgrade way back at lower prices. The firm believes that the valuation cannot accommodate the uncertainty from this suit. We pointed out its full diluted value in all of the hidden gems from its annual report.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls, Research, The Week Tagged: AMZN, gold, NFLX, PHM, SIRI

Randgold: A Gold Call With 49% Upside (GOLD)

Administrator — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 13:48:39 +0000

Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ: GOLD) is a gold mining and exploration company with operations mostly in Western and Central Africa. Needless to say, it operates in some countries where many of you who carry blue-colored passports would want to avoid. A research call from Bank of America Merrill Lynch stands out as a winning impact call if its outlook and thesis remain solid ahead. The call is for nearly 50% upside.

BofA is reiterating its ‘Buy’ rating after recent turmoil in the Ivory Coast has taken a bite out of shares. The firm did lower the price target by 16% in GB Pence but this still comes to what would be approximately $110.01 in US Dollar terms versus a prior implied target of $123.38. The firm noted 49% upside, but our price upside in dollars comes to a call for about 45.7% upside.

At issue is a 25% share price drop as its Tongon mine in Ivory Coast counts for almost one-quarter of its net present value. During this time, BofA said that gold has remained flat. If you are worried about geopolitical risks, this one may not be for you. BofA cites two key risks as being a ramp-up delay at the mine and also cites civil war as a risk. Hey, it is Africa after all.

BofA’s thesis calls it a mid-cap gold pure-play with expected output to rise 20% per year for the next five years. The firm believes it has outperformed peers on exploration success but also noted that its Loulo underground mining project has fallen behind schedule.

The firm also raised 2011 estimates per ADR to $4.35 from $4.21, raised 2012 estimates to $5.77 from $5.58, and raised 2013 estimates to $6.01 from $5.82.

We would note that it does have stock options and those options all the way from April-2011 out to January-2012 are more skewed to being in favor of the PUT options measured by the open interest. Shares closed at $75.49 on Wednesday against a 52-week trading range of 70.18 to $106.44.

The StockCharts.com chart below should show just how tough things have been on Randgold’s shareholders:

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls, Commodities, Luxury, Metals Tagged: gold

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AMZN, AMGN, T, BAC, BHI, CIM, COP, DANG, HGR, MMM, MU, GAS, GOLD, SKX, VRS)

Administrator — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:05:48 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this Thursday morning.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Raised to Outperform at William Blair.
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) Maintained Neutral and $59 target at BofA/ML.
AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein.
Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Removed from Priority List at Wells Fargo.
Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE: CIM) Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Reiterated Outperform and raised target to $93 at Credit Suisse.
E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc. (NYSE: DANG) Cut target and estimates at Goldman Sachs.
Hanger Orthopedic Group (NYSE: HGR) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) Reiterated Buy and $104 target at Argus.
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) Reiterated Outperform and $15 target at Credit Suisse; Maintained Buy with $14 target at Auriga.
Nicor, Inc. (NYSE: GAS) Maintained Hold at Argus.
Rangold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD) Reiterated Buy with $110 target at BofA/ML.
Skechers U.S.A. (NYSE: SKX) maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Verso Paper Corp. (NYSE: VRS) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AMGN, AMZN, BAC, BHI, CIM, COP, DANG, gas, gold, HGR, MMM, MU, SKX, T, VRS

Soros and Paulson Remain Goldbugs (GLD, NG, AU, IAG, KGC, NG, GOLD)

Administrator — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 15:14:27 +0000

Everyone loves to see Warren Buffett’s portfolio changes, but in some cases it is more important what other gurus are doing with their assets under management. George Soros and John Paulson are two of these gurus and they are sticking with their gold bets. Soros increased his SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) by about a half-percent and Paulson kept his holding static.

Soros Fund Management counted 4,721,808 SPDR Gold Trust shares with a date of December 31, 2010. That is up from 4,697,008 shares in the quarter before. Some may have been from call options as those were listed in the third quarter but not this quarter. NovaGold Resources Inc. (NYSE: NG) was another large Soros holding worth for 11,213,000 shares.

Paulson & Co. has his largest bet on the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD). His position was counted as 31.5 million shares and that was unchanged. This comes to $4.37 billion in the dold trust alone. Paulson also listed the following gold shares:

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) as being $2.015 billion for 40,949,437 shares;
IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE: IAG) worth $48 million for 2,700,000 shares;
Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC) worth $369.318 million for 19,478,794 shares;
NovaGold Resources Inc. (NYSE: NG) worth $287.995 million for 20,181,818 shares;
Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ: GOLD) worth $40.753 million for 495,000 shares.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Activist Investor, Commodities, Luxury, Metals, Mutual Funds Tagged: AU, GLD, gold, IAG, KGC, NG

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AMD, ADP, COF, LNG, XOM, INTC, JBLU, MEE, RAD, PCL, GOLD, VLO, YHOO)

Administrator — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 13:25:48 +0000

These are some of this Tuesday’s top analyst calls with upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research firms.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD) Raised to Buy at Stern Agee.
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (NYSE: ADP) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $54 at Argus.
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE COF) Reiterated Sell at Argus.
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (NYSE: LNG) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) Maintained Neutral but raised target to $84 at Credit Suisse.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Maintained Outperform on Focus List with $28 target at Credit Suisse.
JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ: JBLU) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Massey Energy Co. (NYSE: MEE) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD) Maintained Underperform at Zacks Investment Research and named the Bear of the Day.
Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. (NYSE: PCL) Cut to Sell at UBS.
Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ: GOLD) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) Started as Buy with $23 target at Gabelli.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: ADP,, AMD, COF, gold, INTC, JBLU, LNG, MEE, PCL, RAD, VLO, XOM, YHOO

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AMZN, AGNC, AXP, NLY, BUD, ATHR, BJ, BRCD, CHL, DHI, XOM, MSFT, MSI, RAX, GOLD, TOL)

Administrator — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 13:16:55 +0000

These are some of this Thursday’s key analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen in Wall Street research calls.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $198 at BofA/ML.
American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC) Raised to Buy with $30 target at BofA/ML.
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $53 at BofA/ML.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) Raised to Buy with $18.50 target at BofA/ML.
Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
Atheros Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: ATHR) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.
BJ’s Wholesale Club Inc. (NYSE: BJ) Maintained Hold but cut estimates at Argus.
Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD) Started as Hold at Wunderlich.
China Mobile Limited (NYSE: CHL) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
DR Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Maintained Outperform with $36 target at Credit Suisse.
Motorola Solutions Inc. (NYSE: MSI) Started as Hold at Argus.
Rackspace Hosting, Inc (NYSE: RAX) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ: GOLD) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

If you missed yesterday’s analyst calls from 247WallSt.com, the Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades included tickers AA, AMZN, AEP, ADSK, AAPL, BKS, BA, KO, HBAN, NFLX, GOOG, PEP, PCLN, Q, SONC, YHOO.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.
JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AGNC, AMZN, ATHR, AXP, BJ, BRCD, BUD, CHL, DHI, gold, MSFT, MSI, NLY, RAX, TOL, XOM