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The Ten Worst Performing S&P 500 Stocks of 2011 (JNS, HCBK, GNW, NFLX, X, AIG, CVC, ANR, MWW, FSLR)

Paul Ausick — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 18:01:12 +0000

Although the month of October put up a big gain in the S&P 500 stocks, for the year-to-date S&P stocks have risen just 1.2%. The ten worst performers have all lost more than -49% of their share prices since December 31, 2010. Here’s a look at the worst performers and a bit of color, together with implied upside based on Thomson/Reuters data on consensus price targets.

Janus Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE: JNS) fell -49.4%, from $12.97 to $6.56. The consensus price target is $7.00. Janus has struggled with high redemptions so far this year and the company’s assets under management could fall further by the end of the year.

Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: HCBK) fell -50.9%, from $12.74 to $6.25. The consensus price target is $6.50. Hudson’s mortgage business has been beaten up by low mortgage interest rates, which currently show now signs of rising significantly.

Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) fell -51.4%, from $13.14 to $6.38. The consensus price target is $8.50. Genworth, an insurance company, has suffered from mortgage insurance woes, as the risk of default on the company’s insured loans rises.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) fell -53.3%, from $175.70 to $82.08. The consensus price target is $185.00. This stock was our worst performer in the month of October, but its decline started in July.

United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) fell -56.6%, from $58.42 to #25.36. The consensus price target is $35.00. Like other steelmakers, US steel has struggled with reduced construction and lower levels of automobile manufacturing. The outlook continues weak.

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) fell -57.2%, from $57.62 to $24.69. The consensus price target is $29.00. AIG continues to feel the weight of its majority ownership by the federal government and its rising cost of capital.

Cablevision Systems Corp. (NYSE: CVC) fell -57.2%, from $33.84 to $14.47. The consensus price target is $22.00. This was another of our biggest October losers.

Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (NYSE: ANR) fell -60%, from $60.03 to $24.04. The consensus price target is $35.50. Alpha’s $8.5 billion purchase of Massey Energy came at a high point in the coal business, which has since seen asset values fall. Alpha’s overhang on litigation from an explosion at a Massey mine that killed 29 miners.

Monster Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: MWW) fell -60.9%, from $23.63 to $9.23. The consensus price target is $15.00. Monster has suffered from high US unemployment as employers have not been looking to hire new employees.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) fell -61.8%, from $130.14 to $49.77. The consensus price target is $100.00. First Solar was the second-worst performer in our list of the worst stocks in the month of October.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Index, Trading Alert Tagged: AIG, ANR, CVC, FSLR, GNW, HCBK, JNS, MWW, NFLX, X

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AAPL, ACP, STD, EL, GERN, GOOG, HCBK, IART, RIMM, SMP, TJX, TSCO, V, WNR)

Administrator — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 12:27:33 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this Friday morning.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $500 at Canaccord Genuity.
Avon Products Inc. (NYSE: AVP) Started as Neutral with $30 target at Credit Suisse.
Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: STD) Cut to Underperform at Bernstein.
Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE: EL) Started as Neutral with $95 target at Credit Suisse.
Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.
Hudson City Bancorp (NASDAQ: HCBK) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: IART) Started as Neutral at BofA/ML.
Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Maintained Hold and $35 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Standard Motor Products (NYSE: SMP) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) Raised to Hold at Citigroup.
Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $80 at BofA/ML.
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $100 at Argus.
Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) Reiterated Buy as Value at Zacks.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AAPL, ACP, EL, GERN, GOOG, HCBK, IART, RIMM, SMP, STD, TJX, TSCO, V, WNR

The Best And Worst Stocks For The First Half Of 2011

247wallst — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 10:37:42 +0000

Most of the financial media stops at mid-year to reflect on how the market performed since January 1. The effort is often fruitless. The fact that a stock, or any market, did well over an artificially determined period of time does not mean much. People and institutions rarely buy investments at the start of a year just to sell them exactly six months later.

Read the best performing stocks for 2011
Read the worst performing stocks for 2011

We have become comfortable, however, with the routine of the calendar. A six month period is as good as any.

The yardstick for the period is the change in the S&P 500, which was up by 4% in the first six months. The market collapsed in mid-March and rallied into May. The index was nearly flat in June.

Some of the most interesting stocks are those that did not make the lists of best and worst performers, but would have if it were not for a percentage point or two. Ford (NYSE: F), one of the great turnarounds of the last decade, was down 20% in the first half. Its extraordinary gains of the last two years gave way as gas prices rose and consumer sentiment faltered. Target (NYSE: TGT), Wal-Mart’s (NYSE: TGT) most aggressive competitor, was down 23%. The retailer spent as if the recession was over, but its sales did not support this plan.

On the brighter side, Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) was up 41%. The credit rating firm was partially blamed for the credit crisis. It blessed pools of mortgage-backed securities that were actually risky investments. It still faces the possibility of government sanctions, which could curtail its future earnings. Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), once part of McDonald’s (NYSE MCD), posted earnings that showed people could afford to have inexpensive meals out, even if the economy is slow.

Filed under: Research Tagged: AET, AIG, AKAM, ANR, BIIB, BRCM, CBS, CMG, COG, COSO, COST, CSC, EP, F, HCBK, HUM, MCD, MCO, MMI, MSI, NFLX, NSM, ODP, SPLS, TDC, TGT, TXN, WMT

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ALU, ACI, CLS, EBAY, FSLR, HES, HCBK, KBH, LULU, PKI, RENN, SKT)

Administrator — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 12:08:20 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this Thursday morning.

Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) Started as Buy at Soc-Gen.
Celestica Inc. (NYSE: CLS) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Maintained Neutral but raised target to $135 from $100 at Credit Suisse.
Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Hudson City Bancorp (NASDAQ: HCBK) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
KB Home (NYSE: KBH) Raised to Hold at S&P Equity Research (late-Wednesday call).
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee.
PerkinElmer, Inc. (NYSE: PKI) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (NYSE: SKT) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: ACI, ALU, CLS, EBAY, FSLR, HCBK, HES, KBH, LULU, PKI, RENN, SKT

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ACN, CATO, FVE, FIG, HCBK, MET, SHLD, SINA, SPRD, VIV, THI)

Administrator — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 12:03:55 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this Monday morning.

Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN) Reiterated Buy and Raised target at Argus.
Cato Corporation (NYSE: CATO) Reiterated Strong Buy as Value at Zacks.
Five Star Quality Care Inc. (NYSE: FVE) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Fortress Investment Group (NYSE: FIG) Started as Outperform with $7 target at Credit Suisse.
Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: HCBK) Raised to Market Perform at FBR.
MetLife Inc. (NYSE: MET) Reiterated Buy at Argus.
Sears Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Sina Corporation (NASDAQ: SINA) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Spreadtrum Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: SPRD) Reiterated Buy at BofA/ML.
Telesp S.A. (NYSE: VIV) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Tim Hortons Inc. (NYSE: THI) Started as Buy at BofA/ML.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: ACN, CATO, FIG, FVE, HCBK, MET, SHLD, SINA, SPRD, THI, VIV

Dividend Watch: Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK)

Administrator — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 15:28:00 +0000

Today’s “Daily Dividend Watch” is one with a bit more caution. Hudson City Bancorp (NASDAQ: HCBK) is one of those regional banks which we recently noted that already had a high dividend yield before the Federal Reserve recently told the larger money-center TARP banks which ones could and could not raise dividends. If you simply screened for high dividends in common stocks of banks, a yield of 6% might be extremely enticing. There is a problem… Hudson City is likely to see a dividend cut.

The company recently restructured its balance sheet with debt repayment and new offerings under an agreement with the Office of Thrift Supervision to lower its interest rate risks ahead. Many banks have thrived in this low-rate climate due to carrying costs and borrowing costs being extremely low, but the low rates and the tight lending standards have also played tricks on total portfolio returns elsewhere.

This is one more example of how higher rates should be at least braced for even if you are in the camp that rates can’t rise too high before killing the recovery. There are just other forces at work and rates could rise regardless of whether the recovery gets hampered or not.

A research call from Bank of America Merrill Lynch raising the rating to Neutral from Underperform was seen in light of this risk. The report noted that the dividend could still be cut by as much as half.

We have close to a 6% dividend yield today at Hudson City. Frankly, this is a flag. A bank paying that high of a dividend on its common stock is way off the market now. A 3% yield would still be higher than most of the money-center banks today. After looking through news reports on the web, other analysts are expecting a dividend cut at Hudson City as well.

AT $9.78, its 52-week trading range is $9.51 to $14.75. The bank’s current dividend of $0.60 per year (actually $0.15 per quarter) is just too high compared to Thomson Reuters consensus projections of $0.75 EPS for 2011 and $0.86 EPS for 2012. Its earnings came in at $1.09 EPS in 2010. On a GAAP basis, the company’s CEO said that the recent $644 million restructuring loss will effectively wipe out the full year’s profit for the bank.

The last three months have been very harsh for Hudson City Bancorp. Shares have fallen from north of $13.00 in January down to $11.00 in January, only to be followed at the end of February when shares fell from $11.50 to under $10.00 in short order. What is sad is that this was one of the banks deemed to be better off than many others during and after the recession. Now shares are challenging 5-year lows.

Beware when dividends look too good to be true. A 6% yield should never really be seen in common stocks of banks in most normalized environments. Investors usually have to go into trust preferred shares with lower implied volatility and much lower liquidity for yields like that.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Banking, Dividend, Financial Stocks Tagged: HCBK

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AA, BRK-B, CCL, CPRT, DD, XOM, GSIC, HCBK, MAR, OI, DGX, TRV, TNK, UTI, WAG, XL)

Administrator — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 12:22:57 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this Tuesday morning.

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) Reiterated Buy at Argus.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B) named as Bull of the Day with Outperform rating at Zacks.
Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) Reiterated Hold at Argus.
Copart, Inc. (NASDAQ: CPRT) Started as Buy at BofA/ML.
DuPont (NYSE: DD) Reiterated Buy and raised $62 target at BofA/ML.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) Reiterated Buy with $100 target at Argus.
GSI Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: GSIC) removed from coverage at BofA/ML.
Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: HCBK) Raised to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Owens-Illinois, Inc. (NYSE: OI) Raised to Outperform with $36 target at Credit Suisse.
Quest Diagnostics Inc. (NYSE: DGX) Raised to Outperform with $65 target at Credit Suisse.
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TRV) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
Teekay Tankers Ltd. (NYSE: TNK) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Universal Technical Institute (NYSE: UTI) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) Raised to Outperform with $36 target at Credit Suisse.
XL Group plc (NYSE: XL) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AA, BRK-B, CCL, CPRT, DD, DGX, GSIC, HCBK, MAR, OI, TNK, TRV, UTI, WAG, XL, XOM

Real Banks With Real Dividends! (JPM, MTB, VLY, NYB, HCBK, PBCT, FNFG, AF, NWBI, CFR, UBSI, FMER, PRK, TRMK, HBHC, FNB, BOH, RY, BNS, BMO, CM)

Administrator — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 15:28:18 +0000

Most investors today believe that none of the banks are paying high-yielding dividends any longer. While it is true that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is going to reinstate its dividend as soon as it is allowed to by regulators, its paltry 0.4% dividend yield just doesn’t entice income buyers today. There is also a risk that regulators or politicians will opt to keep the heat on money-center banks to keep reserves aside or to make more loans to businesses rather than using cash to buyback stock or juice up the dividend.

We wanted to take a look at “all those other banks” out there that might have avoided the trouble that the big money center banks got into. The screen pointed to M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB), Valley National Bancorp (NYSE: VLY), New York Community Bancorp Inc (NYSE: NYB), Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: HCBK), People’s United Financial Inc. (NASDAQ: PBCT), First Niagara Financial Group (NASDAQ: FNFG), Astoria Financial Corporation (NYSE: AF), Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ: NWBI), Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (NYSE: CFR), United Bankshares Inc. (NASDAQ: UBSI), FirstMerit Corporation (NASDAQ: FMER), Park National Corp. (NYSE: PRK), Trustmark Corporation (NASDAQ: TRMK), Hancock Holding Co. (NASDAQ: HBHC), F.N.B. Corporation (NYSE: FNB) and Bank of Hawaii Corporation (NYSE: BOH). In Canada there is Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), The Bank Of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM).It turns out that there are still many banks around the country that do pay higher dividends at above-market yields.

Our screen boiled down to a simple process. We took a 3.0% Yield hurdle because that is what was implied as a future yield by JPMorgan this week if you use forward earning projections. To avoid the micro-regional risks and to avoid the “so small no one cares if they fail” we also made a market cap hurdle of $1.0 billion. After this we took a look at forward earnings expectations and also looked in the past to see what happened to their common stock dividends during the Great Recession when bank failure risks were systematic.

M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB) is based in Buffalo, NY and is the holding company for M&T Bank. As of a year ago it had 793 banking offices in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia, as well as a branch in George Town, Cayman Islands. The company is in the process of acquiring another.

Share price of $89.85 compares to 52-week range of $72.03 to $96.15
Market Cap is $10.76 billion
Thomson Reuters sees 2011 at $6.12 EPS and $3.77 billion in revenues
Dividend of $0.70/quarter generates a yield of 3.2%
Dividend history during recession was unchanged

Valley National Bancorp (NYSE: VLY) is the bank holding company for Valley National Bank and it had 197 full-service banking branches a year ago located throughout New Jersey and New York.

Share price of $13.51 compares to 52-week range of $12.33 to $16.19
Market Cap is $2.2 billion
Thomson Reuters sees 2011 at $0.84 EPS and $550.98 million in revenues
Dividend of $0.18/quarter generates a yield of about 5.3%
Dividend history during recession was not effectively interrupted at all and it continued to pay a 5% stock dividend.

New York Community Bancorp Inc (NYSE: NYB) is the bank holding company for York Community Bank and New York Commercial Bank and as of a year ago it had 241 community bank branches and 35 commercial bank branches throughout New York.

Share price of $18.92 compares to 52-week range of $14.40 to $19.33
Market Cap is $8.24 billion
Thomson Reuters sees 2011 at $1.33 EPS and $1.25 billion in revenues
Dividend of $0.25/quarter generates a yield of 5.4%
Dividend history during recession was unchanged at $0.25 per quarter since 2004.

Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: HCBK) is the bank holding company for Hudson City Savings Bank and as of a year ago it had 95 branches located in 17 counties throughout the State of New Jersey.

Share price of $11.40 compares to 52-week range of $10.80 to $14.75
Market Cap is $5.6 billion
Thomson Reuters sees 2011 at $0.77 EPS and $966.6 million in revenues
Dividend of $0.15/quarter generates a yield of 5.3%
Dividend history during recession was actually raised during 2009 when others were eliminating or cutting the dividend. The dividend has been this rate since mid-2009.

Filed under: Banking, Dividend, Editor's Picks, Financial Stocks, Research Tagged: AF, BMO, BNS, BOH, CFR, CM, FMER, FNB, FNFG, HBHC, HCBK, JPM, MTB, NWBI, NYB, PBCT, PRK, RY, TRMK, UBSI, VLY

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ALTR, BHI, CIM, FFIV, FLR, GS, HCBK, MNKD, MEE, MU, SHAW, TYC)

Administrator — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 13:05:53 +0000

These are some of this Thursday’s top analyst calls with upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research firms.

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) Raised to Outperform at BMO.
Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE: CIM) Started as Overweight at Barclays.
F5 Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: FFIV) Raised to Buy at Gleacher & Co.; Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) Cut to Neutral at Ticonderoga.
Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: HCBK) Cut to Underperform at FBR; Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays.
MannKind Corp. (NASDAQ: MNKD) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Massey Energy Co. (NYSE: MEE) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE: SHAW) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: ALTR, BHI, CIM, FFIV, FLR, GS, HCBK, MEE, MNKD, MU, SHAW, TYC

Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (BUD, AAPL, CELL, ENER, HD, HCBK, MSFT, MOT, NVTL, PRI, RIMM, SWIR, WAG)

Administrator — Tue, 05 Oct 2010 12:05:19 +0000

These are some of this Tuesday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen in Wall Street research notes:

Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Brightpoint Inc. (NASDAQ: CELL) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) Started as Sell at Hapoalim.
The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Hudson City Bancorp (NASDAQ: HCBK) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Cut to Neutral at Janney.
Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) Started as Hold at Jefferies.
Novatel Wireless Inc. (NASDAQ: NVTL) Started as Hold at Jefferies.
Primerica, Inc. (NYSE: PRI) Raised to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Started as Hold at Jefferies.
Sierra Wireless Inc. (NASDAQ: SWIR) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AAPL, BUD, CELL, ENER, HCBK, HD, MOT, MSFT, NVTL, PRI, RIMM, SWIR, WAG