We saw new positions taken in Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) of 1 million shares and in Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) at 2.7 million shares. Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) was a new stake and that was put at 5 million shares.

Some 2.8 million shares were also seen in Vodafone Group PLC (NASDAQ: VOD) which is likely an arbitrage play of sorts in a Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) deal over Verizon Wireless. Paulson also has a merger-arb piece left over in H. J. Heinz Company (NYSE: HNZ) with a stake of 1 million shares.

Cobalt International Energy, Inc. (NYSE: CIE) was a new position, but this was put at about $80 million in shares and in debt securities combined. InterOil Corporation (NYSE: IOC) was a new stake of 1.87 million shares.

MGIC Investment Corp. (NYSE: MTG) was a new stake of 17 million shares which has since risen in value, but there was an additional $152 million in debt securities held there.

Paulson’s position in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) was listed as 21,837,552 shares worth some $3.37 billion as of March 31. That compares to a December 31, 2012 value of $3.538 billion. Based upon the closing price of $134.63 on Wednesday, that value would be down to $2.94 billion as of now.

Some of these positions were higher in the after-hours from the report. With Paulson under much more criticism than praise of late, you have to wonder if the cynical view of shorting Paulson’s picks may start to take shape. Just keep in mind that Paulson’s losses in gold might not mean that he makes bad decisions elsewhere and indefinitely.

PAULSON’s FULL HOLDINGS

When gasoline prices soared in February of this year, there was plenty of doom and gloom about the direction of U.S. gasoline prices for the rest of 2013. The price jump was the result of the unexpected closing of the Port Reading, N.J., refinery by Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) and the scrum among traders for adequate supplies. Gasoline prices spiked, followed by a spike in Brent crude. After a few weeks, order was restored and prices for both gasoline and Brent started falling again.

Today’s report on personal income and spending, which we covered earlier, confirms the price drop. Personal consumption expenditures for energy goods and services fell 2.7% in March, after rising 5.8% in February. Compared with March 2012, last month’s drop in energy prices was 1.6%.

There are several reasons for the decline. First, more and cheaper crude oil is getting to the eastern portion of the United States from North Dakota and Canada. Second, U.S. demand is falling as more fuel-efficient cars are being purchased, replacing older less fuel-efficient models. Third, it is not in the best interests of major OPEC producers such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi for prices to remain high. These countries can afford to have Brent prices fall by half or so from current levels because they can call on their cash reserves until prices stabilize.

Energy economist Philip Verleger offers several reasons why the major OPEC producers could benefit from lower prices. First, demand may pick up in Europe as lower energy prices help consumers in countries caught up in the eurozone austerity programs. Second, as prices fall the privately held supermajors like Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE: RDS-A) would have to cut back on their massively expensive exploration and production projects. Third, if the price drops enough, the drive for renewables will stall. Fourth, Russia cannot afford to follow suit. And last, other major exporters like Iran and Iraq will be squeezed.

As Verleger puts it in his most recent weekly newsletter:

Only increases in consumption combined with declines in output or sharp production cuts when use is dropping will stabilize prices. Neither outcome is likely in the near future.

The price differential between Brent and WTI has fallen to around $10 a barrel, and the movement has mostly come from falling Brent prices. That is the effect of a sharp rise in North American supply and falling demand. And there are more declines yet to come.

These are some of this Monday’s top analyst upgrades, initiations and positive analyst research calls seen from Wall St. today.

AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV) raised to Overweight at from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE: BHP) raised to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.

Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Equinix Inc. (NASDAQ: EQIX) raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.

Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

MDC Holdings Inc. (NYSE: MDC) raised to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) raised to Neutral from Sell at B. Riley (boutique).

Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE: RIO) was added to its Europe Super Ten Portfolio at HSBC.

USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) raised to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.

Wisdom Tree Investments Inc. (NASDAQ: WETF) was named Bull of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.

Read also: Top Analyst Downgrades and Cautious Views

So far this year the company has closed a New Jersey refinery, sold assets in the Eagle Ford shale play, and closed the sale of a field in the Caspian Sea. Hess said total proceeds from its asset sales now total about $3.4 billion.

Hess is currently in a proxy battle with hedge fund Elliott Management, which launched a campaign earlier this year to seat five new board members and proposed its own plan to break up Hess. The company responded by presenting its own plan to shed assets with the aim of becoming a pure-play exploration & production company and offered its own slate of six new directors for shareholder approval at the company’s stockholders’ meeting in May.

Shares of Hess are up 2.9% at $73.65 after posting a new 52-week high of $74.05 earlier today. The 52-week low is $39.67.

The letter is on the heels of the company sending a letter of its own to shareholders saying that it is trying to protect the value of their investment by rejecting Elliott’s plan to break the company up. Elliott likely assumed that this was coming, as the activism efforts have run into resistance.

Elliott points out the stock is suffering from 460% underperformance, and it said that John Hess has no record to run on and has resorted to misrepresentations and scare tactics.

The Hess letter is here.

The Elliott letter is here, and Elliott even has the ReassessHess.com website to support its efforts.

Hess shares are up marginally today at $70.56, against a 52-week trading range of $39.67 to $72.63. Its market cap is nearly $24 billion.

Sanchez also announced this morning the private placement of $175 million in newly created Series B preferred stock and its intention to offer additional preferred shares up to an amount totaling $250 million. Today’s offering is expected to yield net proceeds of $168.4 million and if the company raises the offering, net proceeds are expected to reach $241 million.

The company will use some of the proceeds from the sale of preferred shares to pay for today’s announced acquisition. The preferred shares will pay an annual dividend of $3.25 and carry a liquidation preference value of $50 a share. Preferred shares may be converted to common stock at an initial conversion rate of 2.3370 shares of common stock for each preferred share. Sanchez may not redeem the preferred shares, but has the option to convert them to common stock under certain conditions on or after April 6, 2018.

In announcing its acquisition of the Eagle Ford assets, Sanchez said it had obtained financing commitments of $325 million. The acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of this year.

Shares of Sanchez are up about 0.8% in the premarket this morning, at $19.60 in a 52-week range of $16.37 to $25.37.

The IEA today lowered its forecast global demand growth to 820,000 barrels a day, or a total of 90.6 million barrels a day. Yesterday OPEC forecast demand growth of 800,000 barrels a day for a total of 89.7 million barrels a day.

According to the IEA, OPEC production rose by 150,000 barrels a day in February to 30.49 million barrels a day, due mainly to an increase in Iraqi production. Demand for OPEC crude fell by 100,000 barrels a day, due largely to refinery maintenance in the United States and Europe.

Non-OPEC production fell by 60,000 barrels a day in February to 54.1 million barrels a day, which is still 600,000 barrels a day higher than average 2012 production. The IEA forecasts non-OPEC supply to grow by 1.1 million barrels a day in 2013 to a total of 54.5 million barrels a day.

Whether demand will catch up with supply in 2013 is the big question. Given the weakness in the global economy, betting that crude demand will grow and prices will rise is no better than an even-money proposition.

For a better read than the forecasts from the IEA or OPEC, it is worth paying attention to the price of gasoline at New York Harbor and to compare that to the price of Brent and to the differential between Brent and West Texas Intermediate. Then look at the futures prices and the open interest on the futures market. In the early part of this year, commodities traders and refiners were selling gasoline futures and buying crude futures following the closing of the Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) refinery. Once the gasoline stores were determined to be sufficiently supplied, crude buying slowed and prices fell.

What did change was OPEC’s estimate for demand on its own crude. The cartel reported that 2012 demand on OPEC fell by 100,000 barrels a day, and that the current forecast calls for a decline of 400,000 barrels a day in 2013, for a total demand of 29.7 million barrels a day. That is 100,000 barrels a day less than OPEC forecast last month. The cartel, which does not release its own figures on OPEC production, said that total February production based on external sources totaled 30.31 million barrels a day from the OPEC members

Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow by 1 million barrels a day in 2013, up 100,000 barrels from last month’s report. The increase comes from revised forecasts for North America, Mexico, Syria and North and South Sudan.

OPEC’s average basket price rose $3.47 a barrel in February to $112.75 a barrel. At the end of the month the price had dropped to $106.96 a barrel. The cartel notes a “bullish U.S. gasoline market” as one of the reasons for the jump in February prices. Now that gasoline supplies to the eastern U.S. have adjusted to the unexpected January closing of Hess Corp.’s (NYSE: HES) 50,000 barrel a day New Jersey refinery, gasoline prices have moderated a bit and the futures market for gasoline has stabilized.

Just a few years ago, the common themes were out-of-control finances and out-of-control corporate leadership with no accountability to shareholders (nor to any moral hazards). The pendulum has now swung the other way, and perhaps it is starting to swing too far. Perhaps. Now anyone with access to millions of dollars or billions of dollars can aggressively go after a company for corporate governance issues. This can be over executive compensation, how a company should be capitalized, what forms of stock it should have, what terms it should have for a merger, whether it should split the roles of CEO and chairman, anti-takeover provisions, retirement compensation and on and on.

If you begged us to guess whether activism will grow or contract, we would think that activism will continue. Does that mean that there is not a risk nor that this is a bubble that will not burst and end badly for the public? Those are complicated issues and it may be quite some time before we know the answer. What is so interesting here is that the activist world very recently has targeted what may be hundreds of billions dollars worth of companies.

There are many instances where we cannot help but wonder if an activist bubble is helping to bolster many stocks. For starters, activists can often drive up a stock and create wonderful value. Sometimes they can get out of control, and sometimes they can go out and create absolute value destruction. The saying “there is no free lunch” is one that cannot be ignored, even by activists.

One big activist dilemma is General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE). GE is so large that forcing change is hard to do, but calls have been made over and over to break up the conglomerate’s empire. The problem is that weak units during one part of the business cycle act as cover for the other units when the business cycle changes. An activist might have said that GE needed to not cut its dividend during the recession, but this freed up enough capital that it probably saved quite literally tens of thousands of jobs at GE in the recession. Others have called for new leadership other than Jeff Immelt, while Immelt’s greatest blunders may simply have been that he took over after Jack Welch, when GE was trading close to 30 times earnings, and Immelt’s first day as CEO was quite literally a few days before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

A few powerful men with many financial backers behind them have gone after some really big companies. Again, this train is moving what is nothing short of hundreds of billions of dollars worth of companies. What you have not seen is why this may be a bubble. There is a serious risk in driving shareholder value in the short-term. Anyone can go in and propose layoffs, a spin-off, a recapitalization, a change in management and the like. The problem is that this effort can gut a company or it can merely be a win during one part of the business cycle.

Many efforts can be taken to unlock shareholder value. Special dividends can be issued. Debt can be taken on to pay a dividend or to buy back shares. Companies can go out and seek strategic alternatives. Companies can make their boards easy to change or they can get rid of any barriers that might lead to takeovers. There are dozens of more things they can do. The question to ask is whether creating short-term value comes at the cost of adding too much long-term risk. These risks are potentially serious issues that investors chasing activists have to consider.

Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) faces more lawsuits over its initial public offering. (Reuters)

The White House says it believes people should be able to unlock their cell phone for use on more than one network. (Reuters)

Pew reports that debt among young people has dropped to a multiyear low. (WSJ)

The Chinese government drops annual GDP growth goals to 7.5%. (WSJ)

Citigroup Inc.’s (NYSE: C) new CEO, Michael Corbat, is more likely to track the performance of individual senior executives. (WSJ)

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will combine some operations. (WSJ)

A senior General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) executive says the company will keep its Opel operations in Europe. (WSJ)

The CEO of H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) could make $200 million if he leaves the company after a buyout. (WSJ)

Theft of oil from Nigerian pipelines starts to sharply cut production. (WSJ)

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE: RDS-A) will build LNG plants in Louisiana and Canada. (WSJ)

The chief of Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) says the return to service of the 787 will depend on how fast the FAA approves a potential fix. (WSJ)

Bond yields on Spanish and Italian debt narrow because of stability in Spain and instability in Italy. (WSJ)

Facebook creates an ad system that could take business from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). (WSJ)

Congress accuses key J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) executives of roles in the bank’s $6 billion loss. (NYT)

Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) will sell its gas stations as investors pressure it to restructure the company. (NYT)

Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares reach a 52-week low as Google’s reach an all-time high. (FT)

Boeing defends its decision to keep the battery used in its 787 Dreamliner. (FT)

European Union finance ministers may ease budget restraints to cure the fallout from austerity. (Bloomberg)

Pearson PLC (NYSE: PSO) executives tell the Financial Times that a number of positions will be cut. (Bloomberg)