• Finding, development, and acquisition (FD&A) costs are rising.
• Reserves are growing.
• Proved, developed reserves are shrinking.
• Reserve additions are not well matched to production.
• Liquids are in every E&P company’s sights.

To even out the changes a bit, Fitch computed a three-year average as well as a year-over-year average change.

FD&A costs for the entire group of companies fell by an average of -14% over three years, but the variation was large. The three-year average cost of a barrel in 2008 was $20.76, falling to $16.46 in 2011. Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) posted an increase of 45% in FD&A costs over three years, while Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) lowered its costs by -41% and ConocoPhillips lowered its costs by -36%. Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) showed a 1% increase in FD&A costs over the three years and Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) paid 60% more per barrel in FD&A costs. FD&A costs for SandRidge Energy Corp. (NYSE: SD) rose 42%, while the largest drop in costs came at Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC), at -65%.

Total proved reserves posted median gains of 4.8% year-over-year and 24% since 2008. Some of the largest reserves gains came from additions of natural gas, which drove up the reserve equivalent barrels count, but weighed on valuations due to the low prices for natural gas. Among the bigger companies, Exxon increased its reserves by 14.1% over the three-year span, while Chevron’s reserves grew by just 0.4% and Conoco’s fell by -18%.

Proved, developed reserves declined for all the companies in the sample by -3.5% over the three-year period. Fitch defined proved, developed reserves as “proved reserves that can be expected to be recovered through existing wells with existing equipment and operating methods, or through relatively minor expenditures.” Essentially that means that the companies are increasing production from existing wells and driving down the amount that’s left to get out of a producing well. As a percentage of total reserves, proved, developed reserves rose the most at Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), a total of 8% in the three-year period. Proved, developed reserves fell the most at Plains Exploration & Production Co. (NYSE: PXP), a total of -16.4%.

The mismatch between production and reserves replacement is described as “lumpy” by Fitch. The problem is mainly one of timing. A project with a long startup cycle, like Chevron’s liquefied natural gas project offshore of Australia, delays reserves booking well past the time the company spent billions of dollars to develop the project. This effect will become a bigger issue as new projects are developed in ultra-deepwater and other difficult environments by smaller companies.

Finally, the push to develop liquids production has been well-documented over the past couple of years. With natural gas prices near historic lows, liquids development is critically important to companies that once focussed almost exclusively on dry natural gas. The largest three-year average gain in liquids reserves was 40% at SandRidge, followed by 12% gains at Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD) and Newfield Exploration Co. (NYSE: NFX). Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) grew its liquids reserves by 11% over the three years.

Fitch notes that what it calls ‘efficiency’ — which is essentially the sum of all the factors it looked at in this operational review — “helps determine the relative credit quality and competitiveness of a firm when indexed against its peers … [B]eing a low-cost, efficient producer remains a key credit protection in the event of lower oil prices.”

The full report from FitchRatings is available here.

Paul Ausick

The potential deal follows the acquisition of a Pennsylvania refinery by Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL). Two European oil trading houses, Gunvor and Vitol, have each acquired a European refinery recently from bankrupt Swiss firm Petroplus. Another large Caribbean refinery, Hovensa in the US Virgin Islands, is a joint venture between Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) and Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PdVSA and will be shut down soon as well.

According to Reuters, the Aruba refinery would partially refine the heavy, sour crudes from Venezuela and ship the product to China where refining into usable products would be completed.

PetroChina is not likely to have any problem with acquiring the plant because it is not on US territory, but a possible acquisition of the Hovensa plant could trigger a review by federal Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). The committee has in the past approved the sale of some energy assets in the US, for example by Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK).

The possible sale by Valero has not boosted its share price today, which is currently down about -0.5% at $22.46 in a 52-week range of $16.40-$28.68.

Paul Ausick

The standout research calls this last week were in the following stocks: ABB Ltd. (NYSE: ABB); Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: ALSN); Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN); Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL); CafePress Inc. (NASDAQ: PRSS); Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG); Demandware, Inc. (NYSE: DWRE); Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES); Infosys Ltd. (NASDAQ: INFY); McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD); SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK); Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT); Zynga, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA); Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX); Western Digital Corporation (NYSE: WDC); Banco Santander (NYSE: STD); and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE: BBVA).

We have outlined a summary of each call and added in color on each to show why (and if) the analysts made calls worth watching.

ABB Ltd. (NYSE: ABB) is about to see a drop due to its ex-dividend date and we saw two simultaneous downgrades after an acquisition strategy was outlined this last week.  On Thursday ABB shares were downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan and they were also removed from he coveted Conviction Buy List but maintained as a ‘Buy’ over at Goldman Sachs.  This one lost about 5% from earlier in the week by the time Friday’s close came around.

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: ALSN) saw its quiet period end on Tuesday.  Shares recovered on Friday due to stronger numbers elsewhere but the stock had been weak after the coverage started.  We saw the following initiations: Started as Outperform at Baird; Started as Neutral at Citigroup; Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse; Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Started as Neutral at J.P. Morgan; and Started as Hold at KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) was a Johnny Come-Lately call where several analysts decided all at once that they had to upgrade the online retail giant after it blew out its earnings:  Raised to Buy at BofA/ML; Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs; Raised to Buy at Nomura; Raised to Buy at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) blew the door off the hinges this last week with earnings.  While it was already rated and effective buy rating, the new street-high official target is $1,111 and that will make it the first company worth more than $1 trillion by market cap if it comes true.  This newest street-high call came from Topeka Capital Markets’ Brian White this last Wednesday.

CafePress Inc. (NASDAQ: PRSS) saw its quiet period end this last week and these are the calls we saw for analyst initiations: Started as Buy at Janney; Started as Outperform at Raymond James; and Started as Overweight at J.P. Morgan.  The initiations being positive did not help the shares.

ABB Ltd. (NYSE: ABB) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) Raised to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.

Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) Raised to Buy on weakness at UBS.

ConcoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Raised to Neutral at Macquarie.

General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD) Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.

Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; Cut to Equal-weight at Barclays; Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Infosys Ltd. (NASDAQ: INFY) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) Raised to Buy at Argus.

SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) maintained Hold at Argus.

The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TRV) Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: WPI) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

If you enjoyed the top analyst upgrades and downgrades, you can join our free email newsletter that includes analyst summaries each morning sent right to your inbox.  We also cover top issues such as IPOs, special financial exclusives, mergers and more. Sign up in the box below.

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JON C. OGG

Facebook will list on the Nasdaq. (WSJ)

Samsung expects a record first quarter, based to some extent on it mobile product business. (Reuters)

Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) will announce its reorganization next Tuesday. (Reuters)

PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) is in talks with Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A) and Hess (NYSE: HES) about shale oil exploration. (Reuters)

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) presses developers to make apps for its Windows Mobile OS. (WSJ)

Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) may buy an idled ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) refinery to hedge jet fuel costs. (WSJ)

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) to cut aluminum production. (WSJ)

Viacom (NASDAQ: VIA) starts another copyright suit against Google’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) YouTube. (WSJ)

JCPenney (NYSE: JCP) cuts staff at its headquarters. (WSJ)

General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Toyota (NYSE: TM) post modest car sales in China in March. (WSJ)

Ford (NYSE: F) to invest in a new $600 million facility in China. (WSJ)

Many retailers report better-than-expected March sales. (NYT)

Spanish bond yields still test multimonth highs. (FT)

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) mounts a defense of its e-book pricing. (Bloomberg)

Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) loses more workers as it adjusts its strategy. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

The reason these refineries are for sale is because they are — most of the time — money-losers. Except for Hovensa, all are capable of refining only Brent-quality crude, which is currently the most expensive crude in the world, and the international benchmark for pricing other grades.

Today, Brent costs about $123/barrel. From a 42-gallon barrel of crude at a more or less standard refining ratio (called the ‘crack spread’), a refinery actually produces nearly 45 gallons of refined products (that’s called ‘refinery gain’). Of that production, about 3.5 gallons are kerosene — aka, jet fuel.

The current cost of a barrel of jet fuel is $139 according to the International Air Traffic Association. If it becomes a refiner, the only thing Delta can wring out of that cost is profit, which is currently non-existent in east coast refineries. That’s why real oil companies are closing the refineries.

Of course Delta can sell all the other products — gasoline, diesel fuel, etc. — but then it needs either to contract that out or have a staff to manage the sale. No savings there.

There’s an old joke that the way to make a small fortune in the entertainment business is to start with a large fortune. The same thing is true of the refining business.

Paul Ausick

Prospects for a sale are weak. The St. Lucia terminal once stored refined products from its joint venture HOVENSA refinery in the US Virgin Islands, but that refinery is in the process of shutting down. Hess’ partner in the refinery is Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PdVSA), Venezuela’s national oil company. The HOVENSA refinery has a capacity of about 500,000 barrels/day and produced gasoline and heating oil for the US East Coast.

Unless PdVSA wants to purchase the terminal (not very likely), Hess could find itself with a very large white elephant on its hands that it will likely have to part with at a fire-sale price.

Hess shares closed at $62.55 on Friday within a 52-week range of $46.66-$87.19. The stock has had no action in the pre-market this morning.

Paul Ausick

McMoran posted EPS of $0.19, compared with an consensus estimate for an EPS loss of -$0.13. The company attributes the good performance to its deep-drilling techniques in the Gulf of Mexico, which have allowed it to boost production substantially higher than previous expectations. Production is expected to average 130 million cubic feet of gas equivalent/day in 2012, with first quarter production at 155 million cubic feet/day. The number should rise in the second half of the year following production testing of a major well.

McMoran’s shares are up nearly 5% at $13.29 in a 52-week range of $8.25-$19.26.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Reiterated Overweight at JPMorgan; Reiterated Outperform at Credit Suisse; Reiterated Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) Raised to Outperform with $47 target at Credit Suisse.
Federated Investors, Inc. (NYSE: FII) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) maintained Buy but cut target to $85 at Argus.
The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Mednax Inc. (NYSE: MD) Started as Neutral with $67 target at Credit Suisse.
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) Started as Neutral at Stern Agee.
Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) Reiterated Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Plains All American LP (NYSE: PAA) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
PP&L Corporation (NYSE: PPL) reiterated Buy with $31 target at Argus.
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Yandex N. V. (NASDAQ: YNDX) Started as Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.

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That honor falls to smaller oil producers including Brigham Exploration Co. (NASDAQ: BEXP), Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR), Concho Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CXO), Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: KOG), Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Stone Energy Corp. (NYSE: SGY), Whiting Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: WLL), Abraxas Petroleum Corp. (NASDAQ: AXAS), Approach Resources Inc. (NASDAQ: AREX), and Triangle Petroleum Corp. (AMEX: TPLM). Among services companies RPC Inc. (NYSE: RES), which doesn’t currently have any presence in the Bakken, is looking to join the bigger players up in the north country. A midstream company that is expanding its presence in the Bakken is Tesoro Logistics LP (NYSE: TLLP), a recent spin-off from refiner Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO).

And last week, SemGroup Corp. (NYSE: SEMG) announced that it plans to create a new midstream company, Rose Rock Midstream LP, through a $181 million IPO. Rose Rock owns and operates a gathering, storage, transportation, and marketing business in the Bakken.

Current production from the Bakken shale is about 360,000 barrels/day and there are those who believe that figure will reach well over a million barrels/day in another five years. The US Geological Survey estimates about 4.4 billion potential barrels from the Bakken. Continental Resources’ chairman suggests that the real potential is about six times that.

Whatever the production, the problem remains how to get the oil to market. More pipelines are needed to get the oil to somewhere other than the market hub at Cushing, Oklahoma. The Bakken’s crude competes with the heavy crude coming from the Alberta oil sands for pipeline space and markets. Rail and truck transportation currently haul most of the Bakken’s crude.

A substantial portion of the Bakken’s production is transported by rail, which is far more expensive than pipeline transportation. But the high prices for crude are boosting rail transportation from the Bakken to the Gulf Coast to around 100,000 barrels/day this year. Some analysts think that number could triple by the end of 2012.

And there’s no end in sight for the transportation bottleneck. Proposed pipelines, like the Keystone XL, face opposition from environmental groups, and another proposal for a pipeline from Cushing to Houston died for lack of shipper interest.

The pipeline shortage can’t last. Moving crude by truck and rail is more expensive and far more likely to result in a massive spill than is pipeline transportation.

Transportation problems aside, the Bakken is booming now and is likely to continue growing for years.

Paul Ausick