Posts for Ticker ‘HOG’

The More Focused, and More Opaque, Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B, BNI, UNP, NSC, GS, GE, TIF, HOG, WMT, COP, XOM, WFC, RSG, DOW, ETN, WBC, MCO, WLP, UNH, GSK, SNY, GCI, WPO)

This was an important week for investment guru and billionaire watchers to see which gurus were holding which stocks.  The full public equity holdings of Warren Buffett via Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) were particularly of note, particularly with those B shares under “BRK-B” soon to split and giving a chance for even the less astute ranks of Joe Public to own a piece of the Berkshire dream.  Obviously the huge change is via the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (NYSE: BNI) buyout.  As part of this deal, Buffett is exiting Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) and exiting Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) stakes of about $600 million and $100 million, respectively, to avoid duplication and internal competition.  The rail transport play now accounts for about one-quarter of the total Berkshire Hathaway entity upon closing. But the less obvious position in that Warren Buffett in 2009 has made it clear that there will be a simpler and probably less “stock-hound” version of Berkshire Hathaway ahead.

Buffett has gone higher up the food chain and is likely to be a creditor now inside or to large institutions.  We have seen this during the crisis.  Buffett negotiated a better deal for Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) than the US Government was able to get.  Buffett’s preferred stock in Goldman Sachs has a dividend of 10% and is callable at any time at a 10% premium; but Buffett also got warrants to purchase $5 billion of common stock with a strike price of $115.00 per share, exercisable for a five-year term (4 years now), and Buffett would effectively get to pocket $61 per share if he exercised those all today at the market (and with a $2.6 billion warrant profit alone).

The General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) stake was listed only as 7.77 million shares of common stock (about $125 million now), the same as it has been for quarters.  Yet last year Buffett came to the rescue with a $3 billion of perpetual preferred stock in a private offering with a dividend of 10% and warrants to purchase $3 billion of common stock.  The preferred is callable after 3-years (2 years now) at a 10% premium; the warrants have a strike price of $22.25 and are exercisable for a five-year term (4 years now).
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Posted on: November 19, 2009 – 8:59 am in Activist Investor, Bonds, Buffett, Conglomerates, Dividend, Editor's Picks, Infrastructure, Large Cap Stocks, Mergers and Buy Outs, Oil & Gas, Private Equity, Transports, Value Investing, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades, Initiations (BRCD, BNI, COH, CHK, CSX, HOG, KWK, MBT, NDAQ, SIRI)

These are this Thursday’s top early analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations from Wall Street research calls which may be moving shares of the underlying stocks:

Brocade Communications (NASDAQ: BRCD) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray; Cut to Hold at ThinkEquity; Cut to Hold at Lazard.
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) Cut to Underweight at Barclays.
Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) Started as Hold at KeyBanc.
Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) Started as Buy at Lazard.
CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays.
Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) Started as Underweight at KeyBanc.
Quicksilver Resources Inc. (NYSE: KWK) Started as Buy at Lazard.
Mobile TeleSystems (NYSE: MBT) Raised to Buy at UBS.
NASDAQ OMX Group (NASDAQ: NDAQ) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna.
SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) put on positive credit watch at S&P late yesterday during trading hours.

You can join our open email distribution list which goes out several times per week to be notified of key analyst calls, top early morning day trader alerts, along with news of IPO’s, key offerings, guru investor data on Buffett and others, key merger news, and more.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: November 12, 2009 – 7:52 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

The 100 Hardest Working Brands In The World

hersheyThere are a number of ways to rank brand values. One of the most important is the level at which a brand contributes to the market value of a public company.

24/7 Wall St. asked Corebrand, the brand research and consulting firm, to look at the top 100 brands based their contribution to market capitalizaton. Using this method, the hardest working brand was Hershey (NYSE:HSY), followed  by Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG)

Corebrand described the process briefly to 24/7 Wall. St.

24/7 Wall St.: Corebard often refers to the brands on this list as the”hardest working brands”. How did you come to that description?

Corebrand: There are a lot of people measuring and examining the “strongest brands” or the “most valuable brands”.  Our opinion is that examining one without the other is somewhat meaningless.  How “strong” a brand is nice to know but not very relevant unless you understand how that strength benefits business.  Similarly, “value” is little more than a measure of corporate size unless you understand the drivers of that value and how to influence it. By examining the strength of the brand and it’s contribution to total market value, we can help companies and their leadership manage that strength and value over time.

24/7 Wall St.: Is there any advantage or disadvantage to having a brand value be a very large percentage of market cap in the present and as an indication of a company’s future performance?

Corebrand: The brand will need to be in balance with the rest of the company’s assets.  A company should strive to have it’s brand strong enough to fend off competitors or changing market conditions but not so strong that it becomes overly dependent on the brand as a single driver of value.  If a company can achieve and maintain its appropriate maximum strength without becoming over-dependent, it will see greater returns in bull markets and retain greater value in bear markets.

The list: Read More »

Posted on: October 20, 2009 – 5:06 pm in Research, Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades, Initiations (AAPL, GOOG, CME, FFIV, HOG, ICE, NDAQ, NTRI, SGMS, URBN)

These are the top ten stocks seeing analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations from Wall Street early this Friday morning:

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was given a cautious call from Oppenheimer, noting that it could report in-line or even slightly disappointing revenues of $9 to $9.2 billion.   Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG): Stifel Nicolaus raised target to $650; UBS raised target to $635; JPMorgan raised target to $608; Goldman Sachs raised target to $635; BofA raised target to $640; Citi raised target to $640.

CME Group (NYSE: CME) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
F5 Networks (NASDAQ: FFIV) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
NASDAQ (NASDAQ: NDAQ) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
NutriSystem (NASDAQ: NTRI) Raised to Buy at Janney Montgomery
Scientific Games (NASDAQ: SGMS) Cut to Neutral at JP Morgan.
Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) Started as Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates on top analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s, secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 16, 2009

Posted on: October 16, 2009 – 8:12 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Top Analyst Upgrades (AMR, ANSW, ABX, CSCO, CAL, CSC, EMC, GG, HOG)

These are this Wednesday’s early upgrades and positive research calls which we have seen out of Wall Street firms this morning:

AMR Corp. (AMR) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
Answers Corp. (ANSW) Raised to Buy at Canaccord.
Barrick Gold (ABX) Raised to Overweight at JP Morgan.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Continental Airlines (CAL) Raised to Equal Weight at Barclays.
Computer Sciences (CSC) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
EMC Corp. (EMC) Raised to Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Goldcorp (GG) Raised to Overweight at JP Morgan.
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates each morning on analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s and secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG
October 14, 2009

Posted on: October 14, 2009 – 7:41 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , ,

Top Analyst Upgrades (BHP, COH, HOG, MOT, RIMM, VALE, LMT)

These are the top analyst upgrades and positive research calls we have seen from Wall Street brokerage firms early this Tuesday morning:

BHP Billiton (BHP) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Coach (COH) Raised to Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Raised to Outperform at William Blair.
Motorola (MOT) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
R-I-M (RIMM) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Companhia Vale do Rio (VALE) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: September 1, 2009 – 8:09 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , ,

Media Digest 8/28/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters:   Price cuts on video consoles by Microsoft (MSFT) and Sony (SNE) have causeD the competition in the field to heat up.

Reuters:   AIG’s (AIG) new CEO says he is working hard and is misunderstood.

Reuters:   Dell (DELL) results were better than expected.

Reuters:   The economy is shrinking more slowly and jobless claims improved. Read More »

Posted on: August 28, 2009 – 3:57 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 7/17/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters:   CIT (CIT) is rushing to get financing before its goes bankrupt.

Reuters:   Bank earnings are boosting recovery hopes.

Reuters:   IBM (IBM) hiked its full-year outlook.

Reuters:   Google’s (GOOG) quarterly results were mediocre.

Reuters:   Roubini says worst is behind the economy. Read More »

Posted on: July 17, 2009 – 2:52 am in Media, , , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 6/19/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters:   Investors are putting money into emerging markets except Eastern Europe.

Reuters:   Stanford will go to court for a $8 billion fraud allegation.

Reuters:   RIM’s (RIMM) outlook disappointed.

Reuters:   CEOs at bailed out companies used corporate jets for private trips.

Reuters:   Congress may not accept all of Obama’s financial reforms. Read More »

Posted on: June 19, 2009 – 2:59 am in Autos, Banking, China, Compensation, Drug companies, Mergers and Buy Outs, Pharmaceuticals, Press Digest, Private Equity, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Harley (HOG) Buyers Go Down Scale

HOG

Over the past week, the 24/7 Wall St.–The Channel Checkers poll surveyed Harley Davidson dealers.  We asked the following questions:

1. What is the best selling motorcycle model right now?

2. Are they sold out of any models right now?

3. How is business compared to this time last year?

4. Has there been an increase in sales in the past month? Read More »

Posted on: June 11, 2009 – 4:20 am in Research,

Buffett & Berkshire Primer Ahead of Annual Meeting (BRK-A, BRK-B, BNI, USG, TIF, HOG)

buffett-imageThis weekend will mark the annual shareholder meeting for Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B).  In the past, this has been considered the Financial Woodstock.  But this is a much different year.  Berkshire Hathaway shares sit down more than one-third from their highs.  They had been down more than 50% at the major lows.  The day’s close ahead of Berkshire’s last annual meeting was $133,600.00 and those sit around $93,000.00 around noon today.
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Posted on: May 1, 2009 – 12:38 pm in Annual Report, Buffett, Conglomerates, , , , , ,

24/7 Wall St.–The Channel Checkers Survey On Harley-Davidson (HOG)

batmobile-5121Over the past week, the 24/7 Wall St.–The Channel Checkers surveyed 30 Harley Davidson dealers across the United States  to track sales trends of Harley Davidson motorcycles. We asked the following questions:

1. What bike model sell the most right now?
2. Are you sold out of any models right now?
3. How are business levels compared to this time last year?
4. Has there been an increase in sales in the past month?

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Posted on: April 14, 2009 – 5:43 am in Research,

Major Earnings Estimates, A Bar Set Too Low (INTC, AMR, LUV, BTU, GOOG, GCI, HOG, GE)

We have already seen at least one major upside surprise in earnings season for the Q1-2009 period.  But we have many major companies which are expected to report earnings this week that are market-movers that are likely to set the trends for this earnings season.  Among these are CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR), Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE: GCI), Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG), and General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE).  You’ll notice we have left financial stocks off of here, as that is for another piece.

It turns out some of these have seen the bar lowered  by analysts to the point that these companies could represent very large “fake” upside surprises.  Compared to last year, or even last quarter, some of these earnings are genuinely going to be atrocious.  The good news here is that most traders and analysts just refer to the consensus estimates, and for these we use the Thomson Reuters (First Call) estimates.  We wanted to outline how these earnings compare to history and to estimates, and how much these have recovered with the rally in the last five weeks.
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Posted on: April 14, 2009 – 5:01 am in Earnings, Economy, Technology Companies, Transports, , , , , , , ,

Disappearing Dividends At America’s Best-Known Companies (DOW, HOG, MAS)

In this horrible market, dividends have been one of the few saviors for investors. But the latest trend of big-name companies slashing their dividend is concerning. Sadly, this trend will likely grow.

Today it was Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW), Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) and Masco (NYSE: MAS) cutting their dividends. The cuts were likely much anticipated by the market, with dividend yields of 16%, 10% and 12% before the cuts. What is concerning though is that some of these companies were out defending their dividends not too long ago.

Read more…

Posted on: February 13, 2009 – 9:55 am in Uncategorized, , ,

Warren Buffett Invests In Harley-Davidson, With 15% Rate (HOG, BRK-A)

Buffett_image_3Harley_logo_2Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) was one of the investors in Harley-Davidson Inc’s  (NYSE: HOG)  offering of $600 million of senior unsecured notes. The company is raising funds for the lending activities of Harley-Davidson Financial Services.

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Posted on: February 3, 2009 – 10:46 am in Autos, Bonds, Buffett, Entertainment, Luxury, Secondary Offering, ,

52-Week Low Club (AXP, COF, NILE, CLX, RDEN, FDX, HOG, ISRG, KF, MSCC, PII, RAX, RNWK, STX)

Burning_money_pic_3Today’s market looked more like an advanced yo-yo session rather than a regular stock market trading day.  Since stocks gapped down so much, there were many new names on the list of 52-week lows.  What is interesting is that many other stocks hit 52-week lows but bounced back to being positive on the day.

  • American Express (NYSE: AXP) and Capital One (NYSE: COF) both graced the list of lows as GE’s consumer losses only added fuel to the fire.
  • Blue Nile Inc. (NASDAQ: NILE) tankola, again.  Forget Valentine’s Day this year.
  • Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) burns investors’ eyes as bad as it burns its client’s eyes.
  • Elizabeth Arden (NASDAQ: RDEN) keeps falling after the bad news from it and its peers over the last week and a half.  Brittney Spears can’t help.
  • FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) keeps dropping. 
  • Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) caught another case of HAGS and is believed to be in trouble all year after earnings.
  • Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) keeps getting pounded.  Down close to 70% from highs now.  Leonardo DaVinci would now sue over the use of his name.
  • The Korea Fund (NYSE: KF) was down almost 7%.  We don’t like to put country funds or ETF’s today, but that Kim Chee from last night just didn’t sit well today.
  • Microsemi (NASDAQ: MSCC) on earnings warning.
  • Polaris Industries (NYSE: PII)… weak HOG sales from Harley, weak motorcycle and snowmobile relative?  Works every time.
  • Rackspace Hosting (NYSE: RAX)… Racking the Rackers, in the server room….
  • RealNetworks (NASDAQ: RNWK), a surprise but think of peers.  And when was the last time you bought anything from them?
  • Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) again… with the earnings it put up this week, you can call it Floodgate.

Jon C. Ogg
January 23, 2009

Posted on: January 23, 2009 – 4:14 pm in HI/LOW, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Harley’s Roadkill Earnings (HOG)

Harley_logoHarley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is looking about as ugly as you could expect.  The motorcycle manufacturer posted dismal earnings, announced a factory mothballing, and announced layoffs.  This doesn’t just throw 2009 into the toilet.  This economy could end up shunning the company for quite a bit longer than anyone would have expected even last year.

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Posted on: January 23, 2009 – 9:28 am in Autos, Earnings, Earnings Warning, Labor & Unions, Luxury,

Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (AXL, ARCC, FSLR, F, GOOG, HOG, JBL, LEA, MYL, RYAAY, UL)

Money_stack_picThese are some of the top upgrades and positive calls we have seen from analysts on Wall Street this Wednesday morning:

  • American Axle (AXL) Raised to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Raised to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • First Solar (FSLR) Started as Buy at Merriman Curhan Ford.
  • Ford (F) Raised to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Google (GOOG) Started as Outperform at JMP Securities.
  • Harley Davidson (HOG) Raised to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
  • Jabil Circuit (JBL) Raised to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
  • Lear (LEA) Raised to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Mylan Labs (MYL) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
  • Ryanair (RYAAY) Raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  • Unilever (UL) Raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.

Jon C. Ogg
January 21, 2009

Posted on: January 21, 2009 – 7:43 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , ,

Early Bird Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (A, GNTX, PFE, AA, AGN, HOG, PBH, SSS, STM, TEN)

Money_stack_picThese are some of the top early bird upgrades and downgrades we have seen from Wall Street analysts this Monday morning:

  • Agilent (NYSE: A) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
  • Gentex (NASDAQ: GNTX) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
  • Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Alcoa (NYSE: AA) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Allergan (NYSE: AGN) Cut to Hold at Lazard.
  • Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
  • Prestige Brands (NYSE: PBH) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • Sovran Self Storage (NYSE: SSS) Cut to Underperform at Oppenheimer.
  • STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM) Cut to Sell at UBS.
  • Tenneco (NYSE: TEN) Cut to Market Perform at Wachovia.

Jon C. Ogg
January 12, 2009

Posted on: January 12, 2009 – 7:31 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Major S&P Stocks On Decade Lows (AA, AMAT, AMD, DOW, EK, GCI, HOG, INTC, IP, JNY, M, MU, MSFT, NWL, NWS, SLE, STX, LUV, HOT, YRCW)

Broken_merger_torn_moneyCovering any part of the positives in this market has been literally as rewarding as jumping in the bear cage with the bears at the zoo.  We have been refraining from doing as many stocks which are on 52-week lows as the list is just too many companies.  But after the close we perused the entire S&P 500 and a few more large companies.  We reached down in the barrel and found an extensive list of stocks which are now trading at lows of the entire decade.   Fortunately for the seriously depressed, we took out the stocks which are financials, autos, housing, REIT’s, and penny stocks.  Below is the full list.

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Posted on: November 20, 2008 – 6:39 am in HI/LOW, Technical Analysis, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,