24/7 Wall St. » HRL

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell — May 23, 2012 (FB, PCX, BX, AMAT, DELL, AEO, BIG, HRL, STP, TSL, FRED, HNZ, MMYT, TIF, TD, COST, PETM, STX)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 23 May 2012 20:05:55 +0000

The three major US stock indexes opened lower this morning after European leaders disagree on a fiscal response to the continent’s debt crisis(our coverage here). New US home sales were slightly above the consensus estimate, but made little difference in the slide. As the day wore on, more bad news from Europe sent crude oil prices tumbling and the dollar rising in the currency markets (our coverage here). The US dollar index rose today, now up 0.76% at 82.115. The GSCI commodity index is down fractionally at 628.23, with commodities mostly lower on the stronger dollar. Orange juice, cocoa, and cotton were today’s big losers. WTI crude oil closed down -2.1% at $89.90/barrel, its lowest settlement since October, and Brent crude trades down -2.51% at $105.69/barrel. Natural gas rose just 0.52% today to $2.72/thousand cubic feet. Gold settled down -1.8% today, at $1,548.40/ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 7 points to 12,496.07 (-0.05%), the NASDAQ rose about 11 points (0.39%) to 2,850.12, and the S&P 500 rose 0.17% or about 2 points to 1,318.85.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) started as ‘buy’ with a target price of $40 at Needham (more coverage here); Patriot Coal Corp. (NYSE: PCX) cut to ‘hold’ at Deutsche Bank; The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) raised ‘buy’ at Sterne Agee; Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) raised to ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs; and Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) cut to ‘neutral’ at Mizuho and maintained as ‘underperform’ with a $14 target price at Credit Suisse.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Dell is down -16.8% at $12.55 after posting a new 52-week low of $12.31 earlier today (more coverage here); American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is up 1.4% at $20.07; Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) is up 4% at $36.20; Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL) is up 1.2% at $29.54; Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is up 1.5% at $2.01 (more coverage here); and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) is up 4.9% at $5.59.

Tomorrow we are scheduled to get earnings reports from Fred’s Inc. (NASDAQ: FRED), H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ), MakeMyTrip Ltd. (NASDAQ: MMYT), Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), The Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD), and Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

PetSmart Inc. (NASDAQ: PETM) is up 13.3% at $62.99 after posting a new 52-week high of $63.19 earlier today. The company reported better-than-expected earnings and forecast more good things to come.

Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) is down -2.4% at $25.72. The disk drive maker is buying France-based LaCie SA for $186 million.

Stay tuned for Thursday. New York Fed President William Dudley is giving a speech. We have also noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – Durable goods orders
8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
11:00 a.m. – Kansas City Fed manufacturing index
1:00 p.m. – 7-year note auction
4:30 p.m. – Fed balance sheet and money supply

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: AEO, AMAT, BIG, BX, COST, DELL, FB, FRED, HNZ, HRL, MMYT, PCX, PETM, STP, STX, TD, TIF, TSL

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell — May 22, 2012 (GPS, DRYS, DPZ, LYB, TSLA, AZO, BBY, RL, WSM, EXPR, AEO, BIG, HRL, NTAP, P, STP, TSL, PCX, BNHN, FB)

Paul Ausick — Tue, 22 May 2012 20:06:11 +0000

The three major US stock indexes opened slightly higher this morning following their European and Asian counterparts, none of which were the least concerned about a downgrade to Japanese debt or dire predictions from the OECD and the IMF (our coverage here and here). Existing US home sales were slightly above the consensus estimate, which also helped buoy stocks this morning (our coverage here). The US dollar index rose today, now up 0.52% at 81.509. The GSCI commodity index is up fractionally at 633.25, with commodities mostly lower on the stronger dollar. Corn and cotton were today’s big losers. WTI crude oil closed down -1% at $91.66/barrel, and Brent crude trades down -0.62% at $108.13/barrel. Natural gas rose more than 3% today at $2.69/thousand cubic feet. Gold settled down -0.8% today, at $1,576.60/ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down about 2 points to 12,502.66 (-0.01%), the NASDAQ fell about 8 points (-.029%) to 2,839.08, and the S&P 500 rose 0.05% or less than 1 point to 1,316.63.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) raised to ‘buy’ at Lazard Capital; DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) started as ‘buy’ at Global Hunter; Domino’s Pizza Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) reiterated as ‘buy’ with a target price of $46 at Argus; LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE: LYB) started as ‘outperform’ with a target price of $60 at Credit Suisse; and Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) started as ‘buy’ at Maxim Group.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Autozone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) is down -1.67% at $362.40; Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) is up 1.3% at $18.41 (more coverage here); Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) is up 3.4% at $151.24 (more coverage here); Williams Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) is up 3.4% at $35.90; and Express Inc. (NYSE: EXPR) is down -26.9% at $16.88.

Tomorrow we are scheduled to get earnings reports from American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO), Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG), Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL), NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP), Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Patriot Coal Corp. (NYSE: PCX) is down nearly -40% at $2.22 after posting a new 52-week low of $1.36 earlier today. The coal miner was reported to be interviewing firms to help with a restructuring. Patriot issued a non-denial denial later to stem the bleeding. More coverage here and here.

Benihana Inc. (NASDAQ: BNHN) is up 21.3% at $16.13. The restaurateur is being acquired for $296 million.

Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) is down -8.6%% at $31.12 after posting a new low of $30.98 earlier today. Shares are getting pummeled again today. We’ve started a deathwatch here and here. Just search for ‘facebook deathwatch’ to get the latest dope.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. Minneapolis Fed President Naryana Kocherlakota is giving a speech. We have also noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications
10:00 a.m. – New home sales
10:00 a.m. – FHFA house price index
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
1:00 p.m. – 5-year note auction

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: AEO, AZO, BBY, BIG, BNHN, DPZ, DRYS, EXPR, FB, GPS, HRL, LYB, NTAP, P, PCX, RL, STP, TSL, TSLA, WSM

Investors Seeking Defensive Stocks Where 3% to Over 5% Dividends Rule!

Administrator — Mon, 14 May 2012 17:14:54 +0000

A stock market that sells off eight of nine days is not a good market. Even the Facebook IPO is being viewed as a one-off item rather than a systemic item which will make the market stronger. With “Sell in May and go away!” remaining prevalent and with Europe in meltdown as Asia slows, the big question is where to hide. Some investors just refuse to accept the floor-level rates of CDs and Treasury bills and Treasury notes, so they go hide out in the defensive stocks like tobacco, consumer staples, basic level food, utilities, big-pharma, and maybe even those high-yields in telecom. This is a market where defensive stocks should rule the roost.

People are going to buy Coke and Pepsi, most likely, in almost any economy. Pepsico, Inc. (NYSE: PEP) is actually up 0.6% at $67.23 against a 52-week high of $71.89; Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) is down 0.6% at $76.95 against a 52-week high of $77.82. With yields of about 3% on average, these pay about the same as the 30-Year Treasury’s long-bond. The beer segment remains uncorrelated to defensive stocks as it did last week (in part due to currencies): Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (NYSE: BUD) is down by 0.7% at $71.43 and Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) is down 1.2% at $40.81. Even the best water utility in America via American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) is down another 1% $33.99 against a 52-week and all-time high of $34.89.

Food is supposed to be defensive. You gotta eat, right? McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) is down almost 0.4% at $91.55 and getting further and further away from that $102.22 all-time high recently seen. The rest of the defensive food segment is up to mixed as food is defensive and with dividends:

Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) is up 0.4% at $39.20 with a 3% yield that challenges the long-bond;
ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG) is down 0.2% at $25.67 with a 3.7% yield that beats the long-bond;
Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) is up 0.25% at $34.49 with a 3.4% yield that beats the long-bond;
Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is down only 0.1% at $29.08 but its 2.1% yield is ‘only’ paying what the 10-year has been paying recently.

Smoking has those nice 5%-plus yields for the defensive tobacco sector: Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is down only 0.1% at $31.75 against a 52-week high of $32.62; Vector Group Ltd. (NYSE: VGR) is down 0.5% at $16.73; and Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI) is down only 0.2% at $40.41 against a high of $42.81.

Diapers, toothpaste, deodorant, and shaving… consumer products are acting defensive: Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is down only 0.3% at $63.50 with a 3.5% yield; Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) is up by 0.3% at $79.62 with a 3.7% yield; Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) is down 0.1% at $99.20 but it only pays about 2.5% for a dividend yield.

Drug and medical is mixed to positive: Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is up by over 0.8% at $38.35 with its 4.4% yield; Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is down only $0.01 at $22.64 with its 3.9% yield; and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is down 0.5% at $64.00 with its 3.8% yield.

Those smartphones and telephones are not acting defensive at all today with Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) down 0.9% at $40.80 with its 5% yield and with AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) down 0.7% at $33.36 with a 5.4% yield.

Some investors are willing to suffer from the near-zero return of Treasuries, while others are going to try to look for the safest of stocks to seek safe and steady dividends. The DJIA is down 0.7% and the S&P 500 was down 0.6% at last look. Both are actually much better than what we were looking at just two hours or so ago.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Defensive Stocks, Dividend Tagged: AWK, BUD, CAG, CL, CPB, HRL, JNJ, KFT, KMB, KO, MCD, MO, MRK, PEP, PFE, PG, RAI, T, TAP, VGR, VZ

The Market Where Defensive Shares Are Working Again (PEP, KO, BUD, TAP, AWK, MCD, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MO, VGR, RAI, PG, KMB, CL, MRK, PFE, JNJ, T, VZ)

Administrator — Tue, 08 May 2012 16:07:03 +0000

Blame whatever you want. A weaker U.S. economy, a weakening and flailing Europe, a move to socialism in France and Greece, a weaker BRIC and emerging market story, commodity prices and on and on… Commodity prices and their tracking shares are getting hosed today. Why does the “Sell in May and go away!” profile often coincide with sell-offs so well?

After the weakness in the broad market has the DJIA down 140 points (or -1.1%) and the S&P 500 Index down 15 points or 1.1%, it turns out that most of the defensive stock sector leaders are holding up far better than the broad market in our go-to defensive stock portfolio. We have taken a look at each of these with share price snapshots right before Noon EST.

No matter what, you gotta drink! Pepsico, Inc. (NYSE: PEP) is down 0.5% at $66.28 against a 52-week high of $71.89; Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) is down 0.4% at $76.97 against a 52-week high of $77.82. With yields of about 3% on average, these are now challenging the 30-Year Treasury yields. The beer segment is not acting defensive as it should, perhaps because they are foreign issues now with more currency risks: Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (NYSE: BUD) and Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) are not acting very defensive with price corrections of 3% and 2$ respectively.

Perhaps the most defensive you can get is water, and the top water utility is American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) with a premium valuation. This water leader is down 0.8% at $33.73 against a 52-week and all-time high of $34.89.

Food is supposed to be defensive, although a drop of 1.5% in McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) to $94.10 is causing some added stress in what was the darling of the DJIA in 2011. The rest of the defensive food segment seems to be less damaged when you evaluate the moves: Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) is down only 0.4% at $39.11; ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG) is down 0.7% at $25.52; Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) is down only 0.3% at $33.97; and Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is down only 1 penny at $28.92 as the world is getting excited about Spam again.

Smoking is defensive again and the tobacco stocks are holding up much better than the broad market with those 5% and higher dividends: Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is down only $0.3% at $32.10 against a 52-week high of $32.62; Vector Group Ltd. (NYSE: VGR) is down only 0.2% at $16.88; and Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI) is down only 0.2% at $40.18 against a high of $42.81.

Shaving, diapers, toilet paper, and other consumer products are acting defensive with some gains on a weak day. Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is trading up $0.11 at $64.36 and Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) is up $0.08 at $79.08 with KMB challenging the 52-week high. Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) is down ‘only’ 0.5% at $99.10 against a 52-week high of $100.81.

Drug and medical is holding up on the consumer end with losses look far less than the broader market: Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is down 0.35% at $38.40; Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is down 0.3% at $22.38; and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is down the least with a drop of 0.2% at $64.65 against a 52-week high of $68.05.

Those smartphones and telephones are somewhat defensive, and those 5%-plus yields sure shield investors who are worried about chasing the hottest growth stocks. Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) is down only 1-penny at $40.52 with a 5% dividend yield and AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) is actually up 0.2% at $33.08 with a yield of about 5.4%.

When investors want safety and when the Treasury yield is so low on the longer-term Treasury market, many investors turn to the safety of the higher dividends and safer stocks that are defensive. Greece and the rest of PIIGS may fall again, but the logic is that U.S. consumers still have to eat, drink, shave, put on deodorant, and tend to stick with their core vices as best as they can.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Consumer Goods, Defensive Stocks, Dividend, Drug companies, Food, Telecom, Tobacco Tagged: AWK, BUD, CAG, CL, CPB, HRL, JNJ, KFT, KMB, KO, MCD, MO, MRK, PEP, PFE, PG, RAI, T, TAP, VGR, VZ

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (MSFT, GILD, NFLX, AMGN, WYNN, CREE, LDK, CPB, HRL, STP, BRCD, FRO, ALU, GRPN, FMCN, ROYL)

Paul Ausick — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 21:06:52 +0000

Stocks opened a bit lower this morning, but almost immediately turned around without being able to break through the opening numbers. Revised third-quarter US GDP numbers were worse than expected, falling to a revised growth rate of 2%, compared with estimates that the growth rate would remain flat at 2.5%. Commodities, gold, and oil all rose in the morning, but by afternoon sentiment had shifted toward the negative. Gold is down slightly to $1,675.40, and crude oil is up slightly to $97.71/barrel. Even references to more easing from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee when it released the minutes of its last meeting didn’t move markets much one way or the other.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 53 points to 11,493.88 (-0.46%), the NASDAQ fell nearly 2 points (-0.07%) to 2,521.28, and the S&P 500 fell about -0.41% or nearly 5 points to 1,188.05.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) started as ‘hold’ at ThinkEquity. Other ratings actions included Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) raised to ‘outperform’ at BMO and raised to buy at Citigroup; Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) re-initiated as ‘sell’ with a $60 price target at Canaccord Genuity; Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) cut to ‘market perform’ at BMO; Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) cut to ‘neutral’ at Janney Capital; and Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) maintained as ‘buy’ with $33 target price at Canaccord Genuity.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK) is up nearly 7.5%, at $3.04; Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) is down about -5.6%, at $31.74; Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL) is a fraction at $28.82; Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is up more than 17%, at $2.62; and Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD) is up more than 13%, at $5.08.

Be sure to check our story on the dismal showing of the Chinese solar stocks and then try to figure out why LDK and STP shares are up today. Investors have got to believe the stocks have hit bottom. Perhaps, but LDK is pretty shaky, regardless of investors’ hopes.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO) is down nearly -41%, at $3.07, after posting a new 52-week low of $2.97 earlier today. The company reported awful earnings and said that it would either need to restructure or go out of business.

Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) is down nearly -15%, at $1.59, a penny more than a new 52-week low set earlier today. The company is dogged by liquidity and cash flow concerns.

Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) is down nearly -13.5%, at $20.40, after posting a new post-IPO low of $20.03 earlier today. Apparently investors have figured out that there are other companies competing hard in the same space and that there are few barriers to keep more competitors out.

Focus Media Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: FMCN) is up more than 15%, at $17.80. The company was torched yesterday by allegations of mis-statements related its reporting. The CEO disputed yesterday’s allegations in a conference call today, and reiterated the company’s intention to continue buying back shares.

Royale Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: ROYL) is up nearly 12%, at $3.27. The company announced a new gas well flowing at 3 million cubic feet/day and said that it would begin selling the gas within 2 weeks.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. Here’s a list of other noteworthy events scheduled for tomorrow(all times Eastern):

7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications
8:30 a.m. – Durable goods orders
8:30 a.m. – Initial unemployment benefits claims
9:55 a.m. – Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas status report (moved up from Thursday)
11:00 a.m – EIA weekly petroleum status report

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: ALU, AMGN, BRCD, CPB, CREE, FMCN, FRO, GILD, GRPN, HRL, LDK, MSFT, NFLX, ROYL, STP, WYNN

The Best Value Stocks in Food & Beverages (CPB, KO, CAG, DPS, GIS, HRL, K, KFT, PEP, TSN, SFD, DF, BRK-A)

Administrator — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 16:37:29 +0000

When it comes to defensive investing, food and beverages are two of the go-to sectors for getting equity market exposure but protecting your assets. The logic is simple enough: “You gotta eat and you gotta drink!” What about when you mix value screens with defensive stocks?

We have been searching for deep value stocks of late now that the market sell-off has taken out a large bite from the value of many major companies. Some analysts group food differently than beverages, but our screen includes all of the following to identify the best value: Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB); The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO); ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG); Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (NYSE: DPS); General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS); Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL); Kellogg Company (NYSE: K); Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT); Pepsico, Inc. (NYSE: PEP); Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN); and Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD).

We are looking at food and beverages separately today in identifying the best value for investors looking for safe havens in the storm. This sector is already very defensive in nature, and we found that the defensive sector of consumer products actually has a market premium due to investors seeking safety. The good news is that the food and beverage sector has a few differences.

Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) recently traded at $30.85 and its market cap is $10 billion. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $29.69 to $36.99. The current value is trading at a price-to-book ratio of about 9 to 1. Its forward price earnings multiple is 12.2 and its return on equity is 78.8%. The canned soup company currently pays a dividend yield of about 3.8% to investors. Thomson Reuters has a consensus price target of $34.00, implying roughly 10.2% upside to the most recent price. Campbell is under a new CEO and undergoing some change. It is hard to imagine that this is a luxury good or a health food group stock, but the company has been under fire from private-label soups in the past and it is now going to add more salt and flavors to regain some market share. Due to the correction, there is almost a turnaround element here.

The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) recently traded at $69.37 and its market cap is $159 billion. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $56.01 to $71.77. The current value is trading at a price-to-book ratio of about 4.5 to 1. Its forward price earnings multiple is 16.1 and its return on equity is 41.29%. The beverage giant currently pays a dividend yield of 2.71% to investors. Thomson Reuters has a consensus price target of $77.86, implying roughly 12.2% upside to the most recent price. What is so interesting about Coca-Cola is that it just the magic 52-week high list right after Labor Day. Coke and water, you gotta drink! This is a huge position for Warren Buffett, but chances are that it will be that way in a decade from now (or for his successor).

Filed under: Consumer Goods, Defensive Stocks, Dividend, Editor's Picks, Food, Value Investing, Water Tagged: BRK-A, CAG, CPB, DF, DPS, GIS, HRL, K, KFT, KO, PEP, SFD, TSN

Food, Ethanol Prices Set To Rise Again (ADM, DE, POT, VLO, PEIX, GPRE, KFT, SJM, GIS, K, TSN, HRL, SFD, MOO, DBA)

Administrator — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 13:12:06 +0000

Hot, dry weather is now expected to reduce the US corn harvest and lift consumer prices for everything from breakfast cereal to pump prices at the local service station. Agricultural stocks from Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) to Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) to Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) reacted favorably to the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture.

Ethanol makers Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) and Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE) also got a boost, but Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX) dropped to a new 52-week low of $0.45/share. Pacific Ethanol faces higher costs for corn than either ADM which grows some of its own and Green Plains which benefits from being located in the Midwest, near the nation’s corn-growing region.

Some analysts are projecting a price for corn at above $8/bushel, busting through the all-time high of just over $7.99/bushel set in June. The impact on food prices is likely to vary as some food makers absorb the price increases and others pass the increases along to consumers.

Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM), General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS), and Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) are all trading higher than they were a year ago, but have pulled back from annual highs set earlier this summer. Meat processors Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN), Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL), and Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NYSE: SFD) will likely switch at least part of their feed supply to cheaper wheat, helping keep prices down for chicken, beef, and pork.

Corn yields per acre are now expected to be 153 bushels/acre, down from a previous USDA estimate of 159 bushels/acre. But if hot temperatures continue, especially at night, yields could fall below 150 bushels/acre. That’s a 10% decline in the crop, and could push prices even higher.

For the ethanol makers, corn prices above $7.50/bushel make ethanol production unprofitable at the current price of around $2.60/gallon. Some wheat can be substituted for corn, but the price for ethanol will have to rise, to some extent cancelling any relief for consumers from lower oil prices.

Corn futures are trading slightly lower in Chicago this morning, after closing at $7.14/bushel yesterday. Soybeans and wheat also rose after the USDA’s report was released yesterday.

The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) closed at $49.17 yesterday, up more than 4% on the day, and within a 52-week range of $41.83-$57.93. The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: DBA) rose about 2.5% yesterday, to close at $32.21, within its 52-week range of $25.63-$35.58.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Agriculture, Commodities, Food, Oil & Gas Tagged: ADM, DBA, DE, GIS, GPRE, HRL, K, KFT, MOO, PEIX, POT, SFD, SJM, TSN, VLO

Key Equity Events To Watch For Wednesday (NDN, ACTV, AIG, CTXS, CSC, COST, HRL, NTAP, ORBK, TOL, YHOO, AEO, GES, RL)

Administrator — Tue, 24 May 2011 20:11:45 +0000

Wednesday is setting up to be a busy day before what will turn into a long weekend in a hurry later this week. We have many key stock events to watch from earnings and other key equity events. Those issues for 24/7 Wall St. readers will be in 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN), Active Network Inc. (NASDAQ: ACTV), American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG), Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTXS), Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE: CSC), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL), NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP), Orbotech Ltd. (NASDAQ: ORBK), Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL), Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO). Some other earnings to watch will be from American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO), Guess Inc. (NYSE: GES), and Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL).

99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN) reports earnings on Wednesday and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.26 EPS and $372.76 million revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.27 EPS and $362.19 million revenues. Shares are trading around $20.20, its consensus analyst price target is $20.28, and the 52-week trading range is $13.12 to $20.59. As far as an offer for the company, FBR noted in a letter to its Special Committee: “we believe that the Special Committee could not justify accepting an offer below a $21.75 to $23.50 price range, and could potentially achieve a price significantly above this range if it conducts the appropriate sales process.”

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) is set to have its 300 million share offering from Uncle Sam price Tuesday night for Wednesday trading. Shares were down around 1.3% at $29.60 late on Tuesday. We have offered an outlook that is not unfavorable after looking at past big offerings of this sort. There are actually some good examples to use.

Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTXS) hosts its “Financial Analyst Track” on Wednesday at the Synergy 2011 conference, and it also hosts its Citrix Systems Annual Stockholder Meeting the following day. With shares around $82.00, its 52-week range is $40.33 to $86.95. The company already said it was extending its virtualization efforts by acquiring Kaviza, so we’d expect to hear more there. With shares so close to 52-week highs and at highs not seen since 2000 to 2001, we’d be expecting “reiterated guidance” or “raised guidance” from the company as a warning would not be welcomed at all.

Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE: CSC) reports earnings on Wednesday and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.16 EPS and $4.23 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.97 EPS and $4.02 billion revenues. Shares are trading around $43.83 late on Tuesday, its consensus price target is $49.95 from analysts, and the 52-week trading range is $39.61 to $56.61. CSC is one which has just remained a serial disappointment and shares are closer to 52-week lows even if this is trading well under 10-times expected earnings.

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) reports earnings on Wednesday morning. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.77 EPS and $20.07 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.10 EPS and $26.93 billion revenues. Shares are trading around $81.50 and it just hit the new 52-week high last week. Analysts have an average price target only $78.95 now and the 52-week trading range is $53.41 to $83.95. With a premium valuation, our take is that Costco has to beat earnings and it can’t use the high gas prices or the change in gas prices that some of the large discounters and retailers have used as excuses before.

Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) reports on Wednesday morning and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.40 EPS and $1.82 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.35 EPS and $1.81 billion revenues. Shares are trading around $30.05 and the 52-week trading range is $19.46 to $30.35. Analyst price targets have already been passed up as the consensus target is $27.45. Premium value for a food company… It probably has to raise guidance or analysts will have to really raise targets for the selling to not come into play.

NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP) reports on Wednesday afternoon. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.53 EPS and $1.39 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.50 EPS and $1.36 billion revenues. Shares are trading around $51.80, the consensus price target is $61.85, and the 52-week trading range is $31.07 to $61.02. Be advised, the 50-day moving average is $50.04 and the 200-day moving average is $51.12.

Orbotech Ltd. (NASDAQ: ORBK) is expected to have a secondary offering of 6.7 million shares that will price on Tuesday evening for Wednesday trading. Shares were up 2.6% at $13.03 latein the day on Tuesday after three straight days of losses. The 52-week range is $9.15 to $15.62 and shares closed Monday at $12.70. We would expect the offering to price somewhere close to $12.70.

Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) reports on Wednesday morning. Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.04 EPS and $319.6 million revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.04 EPS and $402.37 million revenues. Shares are trading around $20.25, the average analyst target is $22.71, and the 52-week trading range is $15.57 to $22.42. With the housing data we have seen, we are holding no great expectations here. More homebuilder business model changes or enhancements may be the norm.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) hosts its investor day on Wednesday and we just automatically expect angry tones over the latest shenanigans took place over Alibaba. Yahoo! shares were at $18.65 just over two-weeks ago, and now the stock is down to $16.18. Yahoo! has its 200-day moving average right below at $16.03 and its 50-day moving average is above at $16.86.

Other companies with earnings news on Wednesday will be (with Thomson Reuters estimates) are American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) with estimates at $0.15 EPS, Guess Inc. (NYSE: GES) with estimates at $0.44 EPS, and Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) at $0.79 EPS expected. Another event we are expecting is the Spirit Airlines IPO, but that IPO was covered only briefly by us prior to this week. Active Network Inc. (NASDAQ: ACTV) is set to be public with an IPO of 11 million shares in a price range of $16.00 to $18.00 per share.

Stay tuned for Wednesday!

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JON C. OGG

Filed under: Calendar, Earnings, Secondary Offering, The Day Tagged: ACTV, AEO, AIG, COST, CSC, CTXS, GES, HRL, NDN, NTAP, ORBK, RL, TOL, YHOO

Top Earnings Previews for the Week Ahead (QIHU, TECD, AMAT, AZO, MDT, TIVO, NDN, CSC, COST, HRL, NTAP, TOL, HNZ, MRVL, NBG, OVTI, TIF)

Administrator — Fri, 20 May 2011 19:24:17 +0000

Next week will still bring many key earnings. The difference is that while some of these may have wild swings, this list is unlikely to bring about any major market moving reports even if some of these reports can move sectors. Our top earnings next week will be from Qihoo 360 Technology Company Limited (NYSE: QIHU), Tech Data Corporation (NASDAQ: TECD), Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT), Autozone Inc. (NYSE: AZO), Medtronic Inc. (NYSE: MDT), TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO), 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN), Computer Sciences Corp. (NYSE: CSC), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL), NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP), Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL), H J Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ), Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL), National Bank of Greece SA (NYSE: NBG), Omnivision Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: OVTI), and Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF).

We have compiled detailed earnings reports, showing price activity, Thomson Reuters estimates, and added color if applicable on each. We also included a Thomson Reuters consensus price target on each to show expected values.

Qihoo 360 Technology Company Limited (NYSE: QIHU) reports on Monday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.04 EPS and $20.31 million revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.05 EPS and $24.12 million revenues. Shares are trading around $29.50 and the 52-week trading range is $24.01 to $36.21. This could influence how some of the post-IPO high-flying Chinese companies trade, but we’ll see. The consensus price target is $35.00.

Tech Data Corporation (NASDAQ: TECD) reports on Monday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.05 EPS and $6.4 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.01 EPS and $6.23 billion revenues. Shares are trading around $53.40 and the 52-week trading range is $34.82 to $54.25 and its average price target is $55.93. Tech Data offers key insight into the number of unit items being shipped around the world and distributed in technology products and consumer electronics.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) reports on Tuesday after the close. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.37 EPS and $2.77 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.39 EPS and $2.82 billion revenues. Shares are trading around $14.10 with a consensus price target of $17.63 and the 52-week trading range is $10.27 to $16.93. As the company is in a merger, we expect no nasty surprises from the top chip equipment maker.

Autozone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) reports on Tuesday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $4.99 EPS and $1.92 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $6.82 EPS and $2.58 billion revenues. Shares are trading around $277.00, its consensus price target is $275.63 and the 52-week trading range is $177.66 to $288.50.

Medtronic Inc. (NYSE: MDT) reports on Tuesday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.93 EPS and $4.29 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.84 EPS and $4.00 billion revenues. Shares are trading around $42.25. its consensus price target is $42.27, and the 52-week trading range is $30.80 to $43.33.

TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) reports on Tuesday and we expect the main focus to be around its patent and I.P. case that recently drove shares. Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.31 EPS and $41.98 million revenues; next quarter estimates are -$0.28 EPS and $47.71 million revenues. Shares are trading around $9.50, it has a loose consensus price target is $14.82 (treat that as very loose), and the 52-week trading range is $6.92 to $12.65.

99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN) reports on Wednesday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.26 EPS and $372.76 million revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.27 EPS and $362.19 million revenues. Shares are trading around $20.20, its consensus analyst price target is $20.50, and the 52-week trading range is $13.12 to $20.59.

Computer Sciences Corp. (NYSE: CSC) reports on Wednesday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.16 EPS and $4.23 billion revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.97 EPS and $4.02 billion revenues. Shares are trading around $44.65, its consensus price target is $49.95 from analysts, and the 52-week trading range is $39.61 to $56.61. CSC is one which has just remained a serial disappointment.

Filed under: Calendar, Earnings, The Week Tagged: AMAT, AZO, COST, CSC, HNZ, HRL, MDT, MRVL, NBG, NDN, NTAP, OVTI, QIHU, TECD, TIF, TIVO, TOL

Commodities Watch: Corn Price Sets New Record; Cocoa Prices Falling; WTI Crude Could Drop Significantly (DBA, MOO, TSN, SFD, HRL, DE, CNH, AGCO, MOS, HSY, KFT, GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, USO)

Administrator — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 18:30:40 +0000

Time for our daily look at the world of commodity prices and key developments. Corn futures continue their seemingly inexorable march toward $8/bushel as wet and windy weather in the US Midwest threatens to stifle spring planting. Demand for corn points to a 2011 year-end supply of just four days, despite projected near-record acreage planting.

Rising corn prices, now above $7.66/bushel, is almost certain to drive cattle prices higher because ranchers are not increasing their herd sizes as they normally would with rising cattle prices because corn prices are rising faster. The PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (NYSE: DBA) and the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) are both trading essentially flat so far today.

Other ag-related stocks are also showing little movement today. Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN), Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD), and Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL) are trading essentially flat. Farm equipment makers Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE), CNH Global N.V. (NYSE: CNH), and AGCO Corp. (NYSE: AGCO) are all trading down about -1%. Fertilizer maker Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) reported earnings today, and missed revenue expectations. However, the company sold 2.4 million tons of its phosphate fertilizers at $543/ton, way above last year’s sales price of $336/ton. The company also guided phosphate sales between 2.5 and 2.9 million tons for its fourth fiscal quarter ending in May.

Cocoa prices continue their slide as United Nations and French troops supporting the elected president of Ivory Coast, Alassane Ouattara, are negotiating with forces of the outgoing president, Laurent Gbagbo, who refused to relinquish power. Cocoa futures have fallen from a high of $3,775/ton early this month to $2,982, and the drop is expected to continue as hundreds of thousands of tons of cocoa in Ivory Cost warehouses are released into the market.

Chocolate makers Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) shares are up more than 1% today. The world’s largest maker of bulk chocolate, Swiss-based Barry Callebaut AG, said earlier that it would be able to meet its contractual obligations to Hershey, Nestle SA, and Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) without relying on Ivory Coast supplies.

Gold and silver are also continuing to set record highs. Gold is trading above $1,450/ounce, and silver has risen to more than $39/ounce. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD) is up more than 1% today, and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) is up more than 1.5%. Gold miners are faring better, with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) up about 3.5% and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) up about 3.75%. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: SIL) is up about 3% as well.

West Texas Intermediate crude is off slightly, to below $108/barrel, while Brent crude is up to more than $122/barrel. The WTI price could fall further as the United States Oil ETF (NYSE: USO) begins to rollover its contracts tomorrow. WTI is priced at delivery at the storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma, which is absolutely full to the top. Because the USO rolls its contracts forward every month, more oil that could presumably flow into the tanks at Cushing have to go somewhere else. Either refiners have to take the barrels or the barrels have to be exported. In either event, WTI prices are almost certain to fall. The question, of course, is by how much.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Agriculture, Commodities, Metals, Oil & Gas Tagged: AGCO, CNH, DBA, DE, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, HRL, HSY, KFT, MOO, MOS, SFD, SIL, SLV, TSN, USO