The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 97 points to 12,835.44 (-0.75%), the NASDAQ fell more than11 points (-0.39%) to 2,934.71, and the S&P 500 fell 0.67% or more than 9 points to 1,354.61.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) raised to ‘buy’ at Goldman Sachs; ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) resumed as ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse; The Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) raised to ‘buy’ at Argus; Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) started as ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; and Demand Media Inc. (NYSE: DMD) raised to ‘buy’ at Citigroup.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: AOL Inc. (NYSE: AOL) is up 3.8% at $26.55; Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) is down -2.2% at $82.69 (more coverage here); Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc. (NYSE: DTG) is up 0.2% at $80.68; Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) is down -3.6% at $38.07 (more coverage here); Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) is down -0.2% at $13.96; Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is up 3.1% at $80.58; and SodaStream International Ltd. (NASDAQ: SODA) is up 28% at $37.35.

On Wednesday we are scheduled to get earnings from AMC Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: AMCX), ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), Express Scripts Holding Co. (NASDAQ: ESRX), Molycorp Inc. (NYSE: MCP); Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN); Nuance Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: NUAN); Harvest Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: HNR); Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS); and Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Cost Plus Inc. (NASDAQ: CPWM) is up 21.9% at $21.92 after posting a new 52-week high earlier today. The company is being acquired by Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) for $495 million.

Amyris Inc. (NASDAQ: AMRS) is down -21.7% at $1.98 after posting a new 52-week low of $1.89 earlier today. The biofuels and biotech company posted much higher-than-expected shortfalls in both EPS and revenues.

Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) is up 10.1% at $8.37. The coal miner had no news today, but investors are piling in at a very low price. Volume today topped 25 million shares, more than double Arch’s daily average.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Minneapolis Fed President Naryana Kocherlakota are giving speeches. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – International trade report
• 8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
• 1:00 p.m. – 30-year note auction
• 2:00 p.m. – Treasury budget
• 4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

Paul Ausick

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.

Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) Cut to Neutral at UBS.

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARNA) Raised to Outperform at BMO.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Resumed as Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Demand Media, Inc. (NYSE: DMD) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Fossil, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

The Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY) Raised to Buy at Argus.

Jive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: JIVE) Started as Hold at Needham

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) Cut to Neutral at UBS.

Mercadolibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James.

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd (NYSE: QIHU) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: UBNT) Started as Outperform at Wedbush (late Tuesday call).

Youku Inc. (NYSE: YOKU) Started as Hold at ThinkEquity.

If you enjoyed the top analyst upgrades and downgrades, you can join our free email newsletter that includes analyst summaries each morning sent right to your inbox.  We also cover top issues such as IPOs, special financial exclusives, mergers and more. Sign up in the box below.

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up about 74 points to 13,001.56 (0.58%), the NASDAQ fell nearly 9 points (-0.30%) to 2,961.60, and the S&P 500 rose 0.37% or about 5 points to 1,371.97.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Xerox Corp. (NYSE: XRX) reiterated ‘buy’ with a target price of $13 at Argus; General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) reiterated ‘buy’ with a target price of $22 at Argus; LinkedIn Corp. (NYSE: LNKD) started as ‘overweight’ at Piper Jaffray; Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) cut to ‘hold’ at Deutsche Bank; and AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) raised to ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: AT&T is up 3.9% at $31.81; Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) is down -4.3% at $84.91; Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) is up 5.3% at $43.23 (more coverage here); Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) is down -4% at $72.10 (more coverage here); Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW) is up 2.7% at $56.71; McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. (NYSE: MHP) is down -3% at $47.65; RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH) is down -10.3% at $5.36 after posting a new 52-week intraday low of $5.27; Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE: RF) is up 5.4% at $6.42; The Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) is up 5.7% at $65.86 after posting a new 52-week intraday high of $66.94; and Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is down -14.6% at $87.01.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is up .0.8% at $200.24. The tech giant raised its dividend today. More coverage here.

North American Tankers Ltd. (NYSE: NAT) is up 1.5% at $14.01. Shipping rates for dry bulk shippers are rising and tanker rates, especially for the smaller (1 million barrels) crude carriers of the Suezmax class. Many other shippers are also getting a boost today, including Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (NASDAQ: EGLE), which is up 6.8% at $1.88.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee wraps up its two-day meeting and Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a press conference this afternoon. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications
• 8:30 a.m. – Durable goods orders
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
• 11:30 a.m. – 5-yr note auction
• 2:00 p.m. – FOMC forecasts

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

Paul Ausick

Read America’s Favorite Chocolate Brands

But what kinds of chocolate do Americans like the best? 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the brands that consumers buy most to identify the top 10 most popular chocolates in the country.

Two companies dominate the list: Mars Inc. and the Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY). The two produce every brand among the top 10 most popular chocolate candies. With each producing five of the top 10 brands, the chocolate giants are in fierce competition.

The histories of the most popular chocolates illustrate how lasting brand loyalty can be. Eight of the 10 most popular chocolates were introduced more than half a century ago. Hershey’s Cookies ‘n’ Creme, the newest brand in the top 10, is nearly two decades old.

24/7 Wall St. ranked the candies by units sold in supermarkets, drugstores, gas stations, convenience stores and mass market retailers (excluding Walmart) in the 52 weeks that ended March 18, 2012, based on data provided by SymphonyIRI Group, a Chicago-based market research firm. According to SymphonyIRI’s methodology, chocolate candy sizes fall into one of three categories: candy weighing less than 3.5 oz, candy weighing more than 3.5 oz, and snack size. Our ranking is based on sales of candy units weighing less than 3.5 ounces, the size of an average American candy bar.

These are America’s favorite chocolate brands.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 74 points to 12,079.29 (-0.61%), the NASDAQ fell more than 21 points (-0.80%) to 2,657.22, and the S&P 500 fell -0.94% or nearly 12 points to 1,251.88.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) cut to ‘hold’ at Argus. Other changes included Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) reiterated ‘neutral’ with a $59 price target at Credit Suisse; Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) started as ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) named ‘Bull of the Day’ at Zack’s; and Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) cut to ‘hold’ at Argus.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Cyanotech Corp. (NASDAQ: CYAN) is up more than 9% at $5.50; Global Ship Lease Inc. (NYSE: GSL) is down almost -17% at $1.75; Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (NYSE: IVN) is up more than 2% at $21.03; J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP) is down almost -3% at $32.93; Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) is up more than 1.5%, at $23.49; and ZBB Energy Corp. (AMEX: ZBB) is down about -7.5%, at $0.71.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Daquo New Energy Corp. (NYSE: DQ) is down about -3%, at $2.73. The company makes wafers for solar PV cells and badly missed expected earnings. Net margins have fallen from 36.3% in the same period a year ago to 20.3%.

Bluegreen Corp. (NYSE: BXG) is up more than 44%, at $2.94. The resort time-share company has agreed to be acquired by BFC Financial Corp. (OTC: BFCF) for shares of BFC valued at $4.56.

Verifone Systems Inc. (NYSE: PAY) is up nearly 8%, at $44.03. Verifone has agreed to acquire a Norwegian company that is the largest provider of payment and gateway services in northern Europe. The price totals about $815 million, including debt.

China Shen Zhou Mining & Resources, Inc. (NYSE: SHZ) is up more than 18%, at $2.57. The company, which is China’s leading producer of fluorite, reported that it had nearly doubled revenues in the third quarter compared to the same period a year ago.

Cadence Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: CADX) is down nearly -22%, at $3.97, after posting a new 52-week low of $3.95 earlier today. The company announced a $75 million secondary stock offering this morning.

JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS) is down more than -13%, at $6.75. The solar panel maker significantly reduced shipment and revenue forecasts for the third quarter.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank president James Bullard and Chicago Fed president Charles Evans are giving speeches in the morning. Three other Fed presidents are also speaking tomorrow. Here’s a list of other noteworthy events (all times Eastern):

• 7:45 a.m. – ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales report
• 8:30 a.m. – Producer price index released
• 8:30 a.m. – October retail sales
• 8:30 a.m. – Empire State manufacturing survey
• 10:00 a.m. – Business inventories

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

Paul Ausick

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink Swann.
Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE: BAM) Cut estimates at Credit Suisse.
The Greenbrier Companies (NYSE: GBX) named Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) Reiterated Neutral with $59 target at Credit Suisse.
Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Spirit AeroSystems Holdings (NYSE: SPR) Added to US 1 List at BofA/ML.
Teekay Corporation (NYSE: TK) Cut estimates at Credit Suisse.
Tower Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: TWGP) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Also read the top analyst calls of the last week.

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

This week brought some new changes to the list and many updates on the old list.  Some of the companies covered on the list are Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF), American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK), Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS), Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG), GameStop Corporation (NYSE: GME), The Hersey Company (NYSE: HSY), Imperial Sugar Co. (NASDAQ: IPSU), Medifast, Inc. (NYSE: MED), Riverbed Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: RVBD), SEI Investments Co. (NASDAQ: SEIC), and U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. (NASDAQ: PRTS).

We have covered these and added in targets and upside from Janney, as well as a blurb on each.  After that, we have added in some independent color if applicable.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) was interesting to see after it has already enjoyed such a large run that has more than doubled.  It was not a repeat on the list.  Its adjusted price on the list was $66.92, but shares on Friday are up at $72.87.  Janney sees a fair value at $85.00, implying about 16% upside.  Thomson Reuters shows a consensus price target objective of $83.11 and supposedly there is a high target of $100 out there.  Janney’s thesis is supported by more international growth and it noted, “we will look to short-term weakness as opportunities for the long-term.”

American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) was noted with a price of $29.45 and its price on Friday was $29.95.  Janney’s target is $32.00.  The firm noted, “American Water remains among our top ideas, not only in the water utility space, but in the water sector generally.”  It also looks for earnings growth and additional dividend growth.  As this was our top water pick at 24/7 Wall St., our only comment is that we see this one making it to $35 perhaps by the end of 2012. This is also a stock to hold for the next decade.

Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) was new on the list, which may be from the implied buyout interest. Janney’s quarter-end updated price was $16.58, but the stock was around $17.75 on Friday.  Janney’s fair value target is $24.00, implying about 35% upside remaining.  Janney is the street-high at $24.00, and investors may want to know that the Thomson Reuters consensus is from a small group of analysts but that appears to only be $19.50.  Janney noted, “Borders’ Bankruptcy Provides Near Term Support” and sees opportunity in the nooks and e-books.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is a repeat on the Best Ideas list but Janney still sees big upside despite this hitting new all-time highs.  The quarter-end adjusted price was $308.19 and shares were almost $325.00 on Friday.  Janney’s fair value target is $375.00 and Janney appears to be the street-high target.  Thomson Reuters has a consensus target under the current price at closer to $286.00.  As a reminder, this one is up almost $200.00 from its 52-week low.  Janney noted several issues here that few may know about, one is its Asian concept called ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen.  Its market share within the limited-service Mexican segment was said to be 14.1% at the end of 2010.

GameStop Corporation (NYSE: GME) is a repeat name on the list and Janney’s adjusted price of $26.67 is fairly in-line with today’s level of $26.80.  The firm sees a target of $33.00 as fair value and that is not much higher than the Thomson Reuters consensus target of $30.32.  One other firm has a $35.00 target.  Janney’s top points were competing store closures, its evolving position to digital, loyalty programs, and having easy comparable expectations ahead.  With the buyback and turnaround underway, investors need to know that despite its 50% recovery bounce it is still considered “cheap” at well under 10-times earnings.  It is also a heavily shorted stock.

The Hersey Company (NYSE: HSY) was new on the list and Janney’s adjusted initiation was at $56.85 and shares were at $57.60 on Friday.  Its fair value target is $62.00 and Thomson Reuters has a consensus target of just over $59.00. It should be known that Hershey is now close to 5-year highs.  You know Hershey regardless of your age and Janney simply noted, “pricing power, superior ad spending and volume growth, and a compelling valuation.”

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE: AEO) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) Reiterated Buy and $50 target at Gleacher & Co.
ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) Raised to Hold at S&P Equity Research.
Barclays plc (NYSE: BCS) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity; Cut to Neutral at Baird.
Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Reiterated Buy and $160 target at Auriga.
Foster Wheeler AG (NASDAQ: FWLT) Reiterated Outperform and raised target to $47 at Credit Suisse.
Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) Raised to Buy at Argus.
Polycom, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCM) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) Started as Buy at UBS; Raised to Hold at Jefferies.
Seagate Technology PLC (NYSE: STX) Started as Buy at Auriga.
Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC) Raised to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Tower Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: TWGP) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE: MTN) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) Started as Buy at Auriga.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Rising corn prices, now above $7.66/bushel, is almost certain to drive cattle prices higher because ranchers are not increasing their herd sizes as they normally would with rising cattle prices because corn prices are rising faster. The PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (NYSE: DBA) and the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) are both trading essentially flat so far today.

Other ag-related stocks are also showing little movement today. Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN), Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD), and Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL) are trading essentially flat. Farm equipment makers Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE), CNH Global N.V. (NYSE: CNH), and AGCO Corp. (NYSE: AGCO) are all trading down about -1%. Fertilizer maker Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) reported earnings today, and missed revenue expectations. However, the company sold 2.4 million tons of its phosphate fertilizers at $543/ton, way above last year’s sales price of $336/ton. The company also guided phosphate sales between 2.5 and 2.9 million tons for its fourth fiscal quarter ending in May.

Cocoa prices continue their slide as United Nations and French troops supporting the elected president of Ivory Coast, Alassane Ouattara, are negotiating with forces of the outgoing president, Laurent Gbagbo, who refused to relinquish power. Cocoa futures have fallen from a high of $3,775/ton early this month to $2,982, and the drop is expected to continue as hundreds of thousands of tons of cocoa in Ivory Cost warehouses are released into the market.

Chocolate makers Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) shares are up more than 1% today. The world’s largest maker of bulk chocolate, Swiss-based Barry Callebaut AG, said earlier that it would be able to meet its contractual obligations to Hershey, Nestle SA, and Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) without relying on Ivory Coast supplies.

Gold and silver are also continuing to set record highs. Gold is trading above $1,450/ounce, and silver has risen to more than $39/ounce. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD) is up more than 1% today, and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) is up more than 1.5%. Gold miners are faring better, with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) up about 3.5% and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) up about 3.75%. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: SIL) is up about 3% as well.

West Texas Intermediate crude is off slightly, to below $108/barrel, while Brent crude is up to more than $122/barrel. The WTI price could fall further as the United States Oil ETF (NYSE: USO) begins to rollover its contracts tomorrow. WTI is priced at delivery at the storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma, which is absolutely full to the top. Because the USO rolls its contracts forward every month, more oil that could presumably flow into the tanks at Cushing have to go somewhere else. Either refiners have to take the barrels or the barrels have to be exported. In either event, WTI prices are almost certain to fall. The question, of course, is by how much.

Paul Ausick

That prediction was made last year by the Nature Conservation Research Council and was carried on NPR, the U.K.’s  Independent newspaper and a host of other media outlets.  The group’s head, John Mason,  is quoted by the Independent as saying “In 20 years chocolate will be like caviar. It will become so rare and so expensive that the average Joe just won’t be able to afford it.”

That’s a pretty bold statement to make.   Forecasting cocoa or any commodities markets for 20 weeks is pretty difficult.  Predicting what the world will be like in 20 years is at best an educated guess and at worse like throwing a dart at a target blindfolded.    It also is a tough metaphor to prove since these products are sold in vastly different quantities.    One product is plentiful and the other rare.

Prices for chocolate’s main ingredient at a 30-year high of about $3,340 a ton on the New York Mercantile Exchange.   Caviar, one the other hand, sells between $90 and $150 an ounce.   There are 35,273 ounces in a metric ton.    So theoretically, a ton of caviar would cost about $3.5 million.

To be sure, chocolate prices are headed higher which will squeeze the profit margins of Hershey Co.  (NYSE: HSY), Campbell Soup Co.  (NYSE: CPB), maker of Pepperidge Farm cookies, General Mills Inc.  (NYSE: GIS), whose brands include Betty Crocker, Haagen Daas and Pillsbury, and other food companies, grocery chains and retailers.    The situation is especially bad in the Ivory Coast where there is a political stand-off over who should be the president of the world’s largest cocoa exporter.

Bloomberg Businessweek reported that some are predicting that prices may rise another 14%  should an export ban be continued through may.  As the news organization notes, it’s a dicey situation.

Exports, accounting for 34 percent of global supply, were banned Jan. 24 by Alassane Ouattara, the internationally recognized winner of disputed presidential elections. The decree, combined with a lack of financing and trade restrictions imposed by the European Union in January, meant a 99 percent slump in the registration of beans for shipment in the two weeks ended March 3, the latest port data show.

Cocoa has risen 18 percent since the November elections, adding pressure to world food prices the United Nations says reached a record last month. Ouattara this week extended the ban until the end of the month. Another extension may take it into the mid-crop, the smaller of two annual harvests that starts in April.

The political stand-off will get resolved because there is too much money at stake.   Chocolate sales are pretty recession resistant too.  Market researcher Mintel says that US seasonal chocolate sales rose 16.3% between 2005 and 2010.

Of course as long as supply doesn’t meet demand, prices will remain high.  Maybe chocolate lovers will have to start munching on something affordable like carrots.

—Jonathan Berr