With warnings having started from key leaders in the realm of chip stocks, the question is whether or not you can trust the analysts and the consensus upside.  24/7 Wall St. has gone in and evaluated the leaders in each aspect of the semiconductor sector to see where there is value and where the risks currently lie.  We evaluated the following chip companies: Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC); QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM); Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: TXN); Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM); NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA); Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD); Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM); Freescale Semiconductor Holdings (NYSE: FSL); SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK); Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT); Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX); and Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR).

In a further effort to show just how much these have sold off, we have shown the moves in the following key semiconductor ETFs: Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (AMEX: SMH); SPDR S&P Semiconductor (AMEX: XSD); and the ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (AMEX: USD).  We have also run the same screens in retail, gold and silver miners, conglomerates, industrial giants, and major oil companies with links to those at the end of this article. Here is the screening of value and upside in the chip giants:

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) traded at $26.60 with a market value of $129 billion.  The consensus target price for the king of PC processors from Thomson Reuters is $29.75 and the 52-week trading range is $19.16 to $29.27.  This DJIA component’s most recent yield was listed as 3.2%. Intel’s implied upside to the consensus target is 16% and it is worth noting that the consensus target is just above the 52-week high.

QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) traded at $57.78 with a market value of $99 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $71.92 and the 52-week trading range is $45.98 to $68.87.  The CDMA giant yields about 1.7% after dividend hikes. The implied upside to the consensus target is just under 25% but we would note that the consensus target is still over $3.00 above the 52-week high.

Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: TXN) traded at $29.15 with a market value of $33.4 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $35.80 and the 52-week trading range is $24.34 to $35.30.  The yield here is about 2.3%. TI’s implied upside to the consensus target is just under 23% and that target is still just above its 52-week high.

Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) traded at $31.85 with a market value of $17.5 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $43.21 and the 52-week trading range is $27.59 to $39.66.  Broadcom has a paltry yield of only about 1.2%, but its implied upside to the consensus target is about 35%.  Be advised that this consensus target is almost $4.00 above the 52-week high.

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) trades at $12.25 and its market cap is just over $7.5 billion. This graphics processor leader has a consensus target price of $16.64 and the 52-week trading range is $11.47 to $20.05.  NVIDIA pays no dividend and that is something which it should consider changing since it has about $3 billion in cash and liquidity. Its implied upside to the consensus target is about 35% and that consensus target price is well under its 52-week high.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD) trades at $6.06 and its market cap is only $4.25 billion despite it being so actively traded. The consensus target price for this distant number-2 in PC processors is $8.55 and the 52-week trading range is $4.31 to $8.71.  AMD has no dividend due to very spotty earnings. Its implied upside to the consensus target is more than 41% if you trust the analysts here and its target price is just under its 52-week high.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) currently trades at $14.15 for its ADR and Yahoo! Finance shows its market value being about $73 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $16.70 and the 52-week trading range is $10.75 to $16.15.  The yield is listed as roughly 2.9%. TSM’s implied upside to the consensus target is 18% and the consensus target is about 4% above the 52-week high.

Freescale Semiconductor Holdings (NYSE: FSL) has been battered since its IPO and shares now trade at $9.75 with an implied market value of $2.4 billion.  This private equity backed chip outfit’s consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is all the way up at $17.92 and the 52-week (less than one-year actually) trading range is $9.43 to $20.97.  Freescale has NO DIVIDEND, which makes it stand out against the peer group now.  Still, if you trust the analysts here the implied upside to the consensus target is a whopping 83%!  Trust is hard to come by here, particularly for a company where backers will sell shares along the way into strength.

SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) trades around $32.50 and its market value is about $7.9 billion.  The king of flash memory’s consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $44.46 and the 52-week trading range is $31.34 to $53.46.  SanDisk has no current dividend, something which may need to change down the road considering that this is not anywhere close to a new company.  Its implied upside to the consensus target is 37% but the company has had two warnings.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) currently trades at $10.55 and its market value is $13.6 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $13.65 and the 52-week trading range is $9.70 to $13.94.  Applied now yields about 3.4% and its implied upside to the consensus target is about 29%.

Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) is worth more than $4.5 billion today but it is acquiring Novellus Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) for about $3 billion in stock, so it will soon be larger.  Its shares trade at $38.00, its consensus target price is $48.53 and the 52-week trading range is $34.81 to $48.88.  Lam Research pays NO DIVIDEND now and its implied upside is almost 28%.

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) currently trades at $33.90 and its market value is $10.9 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $41.00 and the 52-week trading range is $30.39 to $48.91.  Altera has a dink yield of only about 1% and we expect a dividend hike in the coming weeks or months. Its implied upside to the consensus target is about 21% and this one is well off highs and the target is almost $8.00 under its 52-week high.

Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (AMEX: SMH) has undergone a total transformation since it is no longer the Semiconductor HOLDRs.  At $31.25 its range since the change is listed as $28.86 to $36.17.  This ETF is said to have assets of almost $400 million, but that changes based upon inflows and outflows on top of the change in the price.

SPDR S&P Semiconductor (AMEX: XSD) ETS is now one of the longest ETF in chips since the HOLDRS changed.  At $43.50 now, its 52-week range is $40.09 to $59.85 and it still has only about $44 million in assets.  This one peaked in January and the mix of components has made it more volatile than many leaders.  This ETF would now have to rally by more than 37% to hit its 52-week high again.

ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (AMEX: USD) uses leverage of 2-times for its semiconductor trading, so this is one where it will feel just like getting your fingernails ripped out when your timing is wrong. At $33.50, this leveraged ETF has a 52-week range of $26.18 to $46.46. It would have to rally about 39% to hit its 52-week high again.

As you can see, the semiconductor and chip leaders have now pulled back substantially from their highs seen throughout 2012.  The issue to consider is that Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) have confirmed that PC sales are slowing.  Some of this is due to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and some of it is due to weakness in Europe, weak PC spending in the Americas, and a slowing of growth in the BRIC nations.  How the Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) launch of Windows 8 will impact the PC refresh cycle ahead is now another wild card since PC sales guidance is looking softer than anticipated from just a couple of weeks ago.

We also want to warn investors to not just blindly trust the analysts in semiconductor price targets here.  Summer can be a brutal time for chip stocks.  The drop in the ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (AMEX: USD) during the summer of 2011 was about 40% and the drop from the 52-week high in 2011 to that end of summer trough was almost 50%.

The drop in the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (AMEX: XSD) during the summer of 2011 was about 25%, but the drop from the peak in early 2011 here to the trough of late-summer was about 31%.

Summer is a very tough time to invest in chip stocks, and the question now is just how much the slowdown is going to continue taking out of chip stocks.  We would certainly avoid trying to play the game of trying to catch falling knives here, but these are all worth keeping an eye on for those inflection points where the valuations start to adequately discount the warning signs.

Gold & Silver Miners with the Most Upside Value  

Major Oil Companies with the Most Upside Value

Industrials with the Most Upside Value  

Conglomerates with the Most Upside Value

Retail Stocks with Upside 

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JON C. OGG

On an adjusted basis H-P turned in earnings of $0.98 EPS on total sales of $30.69 billion.  This was above its prior guidance of $0.88 to $0.91 per share and above the consensus from Thomson Reuters of $0.91 EPS and $29.9 billion in revenues.

HP showed the following in PC and tech sales:

• Personal Systems Group revenue was flat year over year with a 5.5% operating margin.
• Commercial revenue increased 3%
• Consumer revenue declined 4%
• Workstations revenue was down 1%
• Desktop units were up 5%
• notebook units were down 6%
• total units were down 1%.

Results elsewhere are as follows:

• Services revenue declined 1% year over year with an 11.3% operating margin
• Imaging and Printing Group (IPG) revenue declined 10% year over year with a 13.2% operating margin.
• Enterprise Servers, Storage and Networking (ESSN) revenue declined 6% year over year with an 11.2% operating margin.
• HP Financial Services revenue grew 9% year over year driven by a 4% increase in net portfolio assets and a 5% increase in financing volume.
• Software revenue grew 22% year over year with a 17.7% operating margin, including the results of Autonomy… but it noted “Autonomy saw a significant decline in license revenue.”

HP spent $350 million of cash during the quarter to repurchase approximately 13 million shares of common stock in open market transactions and the company exited the quarter with $8.7 billion in gross cash.

Cutting another 8% of the workforce in the coming year or more is not going to come without pain.  What is also helping is that the crummy news coming out of Dell caused Dell’s worst day in a decade or more and that set the bar very low for H-P.  H-P closed down 3.2% at $21.08 against a prior 52-week low of $21.28, but shares are up 5.7% at $22.33 in the after-hours session.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is not winning with H-P perhaps on lower total unit sales.  Shares closed down 2.2% at $29.11 and the stock is at $29.04 in the after-hours.  Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is facing the same after a 2.3% drop to $25.44 today and the after-hours session is down at $25.35.

JON C. OGG

When you see a drop of 17% on Dell, you might expect that the volume was 100 million shares or so.  As of 11 AM EST we have still not even seen 40 million shares trade against an average volume of 16.5 million.  The volume is strong, but this feels like the sort of news that would drive 100 million shares.  That being said, Dell traded 51,440,000 shares per NASDAQ trading data on its last earnings report day-after.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) is set to report earnings today after the close of trading and estimates are $0.91 EPS and $29.92 billion in sales.  Let’s just say that it is safe to assume that the estimates have unofficially come down significantly.  H-P shares are down 4.6% at $20.77 and this is a new 52-week low.  As a reminder, HP is expected to announce a major round of tech layoffs today as part of its restructuring.

This appears to be the worst trading day in more than a decade for Dell on a percentage drop.  Dell is down 17.1% at $12.50 now and the prior 52-week range is $13.29 to $18.36.  Dell is now probably under 6-times forward earnings estimates after the drop and H-P is roughly the same.  The problem is that no one is willing to pay for contracting earnings power of this sort.  Dell offers no dividend to entice shareholders to stay around, and HP offers at least a yield of about 2.2% based on today’s price.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is down 3.2% at $25.19 and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is down 2.9% at $28.90.

Elsewhere in key PC components, the fallout continues… Seagate Technology PLC (NYSE: STX) is down 2% at $25.81 against a recent high of $32.55 and Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) is down 2% at $33.82 against a recent high of $44.44.  We warned investors not to chase those on the last round of good news as it should have been anticipated at the end of 2011 and in the first quarter of this year.  It may seem a bit of a surprise, but the US king of DRAM via Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) is down only 0.2% at $5.70 because it is already down so much from the highs of $10.23 over the last year.

It goes without saying… wrecking balls swing back and forth, and the damage is severe.  Dell has become technology’s wrecking ball and having a ”LOW P/E VALUATION” is about as relevant as gold to a dead man today.

JON C. OGG

There are several issues happening almost simultaneously here.  Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) recently reiterated its guidance and this lends more thought to the PC recovery being sustained.  Even Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) signaled that it sees increased demand for PCs and its processors ahead.  The reason is in part due to the Windows refresh cycle as Microsoft Corporation is now just a few months away from its launch of the Windows 8 operating system.

Our big question is simple, yet complicated: How bad will the reports be from Dell and H-P?

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) is in a turnaround and Wall Street refuses to give it any valuation worth noting.  Its value is about 6-times expected earnings.  The chatter has already been telegraphed that some 25,000 or even 30,000 pink slips are going to be handed out at H-P.  That will make its earnings coincide with National Employee Morale Day.  H-P is a DJIA component and it is worth under $44 billion in market capitalization now that its stock is down more than half from the peak in early 2011.  H-P still trades under $22 and its 52-week range is $21.28 to $37.70 against a consensus analyst price target objective of $29.23 that implies about 33% upside.  Thomson Reuters has consensus estimates of $0.91 EPS and $29.92 billion in revenue for H-P.

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) is dirt cheap for a tech stock and dirt cheap compared to the market, but against H-P it almost sounds expensive at 7.5-times its forward earnings.  Dell is still just under $15 and its 52-week range is $13.29 to $18.36 against a consensus analyst price target objective of $19.43 that implies 30% upside.  Thomson Reuters has consensus estimates of $0.46 EPS and $14.89 billion in revenue for Dell.

Analysts still seem to prefer Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) over Dell and H-P alike if you just pay attention to the media coverage.  What is interesting is that Apple has almost no attention given to its Mac sales at the moment.  It is all about iPads, iPhones, and the coming Apple TV.  Apple shares are finally recovering with a gain of 4% to $551.00 today.  Analysts have a consensus target of $708.55 against the $551 price today.  What is interesting is that Apple’s implied upside is about 28%.

Can it be that analysts actually prefer Dell and H-P over Apple as a group?  That is what the math says on the surface.  The difference is that many of the analysts following Apple are far higher and much more ambitious on Apple than the consensus.

JON C. OGG

Also, keep in mind that portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler are still new and those new positions of under $200 million $300 million are likely tied to them.

24/7 Wall St. has gone through line by line of each position to see which stocks have been bought and sold as new positions, as well as having added in whether or not the number of shares grew or shrank on each since the prior quarter. We had added some color in on some of the positions if applicable.

Be advised that the number of subsidiaries that this filing covers is 14 entities rather than 18 entities in the prior quarter. There is also a note in the 13F filing showing that the SEC has granted “Confidential Treatment” on some Berkshire stock holdings and that likely suggests that Buffett is still acquiring a position he does not want the public to know about yet. This filing does not signal the half-dozen or more European shares that Buffett said he bought so that remains an outstanding issue as well.

The value of the stock portfolio was $66,151,587,000 at the end of 2011 and this was listed as $75,300,250,000 at the end of March 2012.

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) was over 151.6 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK) is now 5.6 million shares, HIGHER THAN the 1,793,915 shares last quarter.

CVS Caremark Corporation (NYSE: CVS) is the SAME SIZE at 7.106 million shares after having been a new holding in a recent quarter and having been raised one quarter ago.

Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) was right at 200 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is roughly 29.1 million shares, roughly the SAME AS BEFORE but it is still lower than previous quarters in past reports.

Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 4,333,363 Shares, SAME AS last quarter after having lowered it before.

Da Vita Inc. (NYSE: DVA) is now 6 million shares worth $541 million and that LARGER THAN BEFORE after having been a new position of 2.684 million shares.

DirecTV (NASDAQ: DTV) is a LARGER POSITION listed at 22.999 million worth over $1.13 billion. This one had been 20.348 million shares worth $870 million one quarter earlier and it had been a new position just two quarters ago at 4.249 million shares.

What is interesting is that this is all taking place when Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has been a huge disruption force.  Mac sales have grown, but the iPad has been the true disruption as consumers are flocking to the tablet for casual web use and media use and keeping older desktops and/or laptops to use for more heavy issues.

This morning at the J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference came word from AMD’s CEO Rory Read that demand is picking up in the personal computer space.  The pickup was said to be for both 2012 and for 2013, although that is a company prediction.  He even went on to note that the personal computer market will have a single-digit rise this year and that the growth will be back-end loaded for the second half of this year.

The strength is based upon AMD’s Trinity processors for laptops after many key design wins.   AMD shares are up only $0.04 at $6.79 against a 52-week trading range of $4.31 to $8.73 and its market capitalization rate is $4.76 billion.

Now the company just has to go out and execute on its strategy.  Unfortunately, that has always been the hard part for AMD to maintain and that is regardless of the PC sales climate.

JON C. OGG

CalPERS vs. Jamie Dimon

The California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) remarked that it will pressure the JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) board to split the CEO and chairman roles to water down the power of long-time leader Jamie Dimon. Under most circumstances, the proposal would be ludicrous. But JP Morgan just admitted that it lost $2 billion on a series of trading positions. Top management at the investment unit already has been forced out. No one has shown conclusively that Dimon knew the details of the risks or the trades themselves. There are concerns that he did push his traders to improve results, which could have fostered a dangerous attitude toward risky positions. CalPERS does not have the votes to win the issue, but it can further embarrass Dimon and his board.

Facebook’s IPO

The price of Facebook’s IPO is likely to fall between $34 and $38. That is above the previous forecast of $28 to $35. Of course, this means that demand for shares has risen sharply in the past few days. This is despite evidence that Facebook’s revenue growth has slowed and its mobile sales are almost nonexistent. The lure of the offering remains Facebook’s 900 million users. Investors believe that there must be some way to turn that population into tens of billions in high-margin revenue. Facebook still may be able to pick the lock of display advertising, which it has been unable to sell at high prices. Whether it can win a race to smartphones against other social networks, like Twitter, and search companies like Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is less likely. Only so many angels can sit on the head of the mobile device pin.

Wireless Customer Satisfaction

Customer satisfaction with wireless subscriber companies steadied last quarter, according to the widely followed American Customer Satisfaction Index. On a 100-point scale, AT&T (NYSE: T) and T-Mobile each posted a 69. Verizon’s (NYSE: VZ) wireless division has a score of 70, and Sprint-Nextel (NYSE: S) came in first at 71. The news is good for Sprint, which has been criticized for poor customer service in the past. It probably will not keep the company from bleeding subscribers. AT&T and Verizon Wireless continue to take customers in a U.S. market that is not growing. What is notable about the figures is that 70 is a low score. Even though the four companies have similar levels of satisfaction, it is at a poor level.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Panasonic may force a partnership to build OLED TVs. (Reuters)

Trouble at Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) may prompt low-ball bids for many of the its assets. (Reuters)

New data from the government will show the extent to which people over 55 cannot find jobs. (Reuters)

Coty withdraws its $10.7 billion offer for Avon (NYSE: AVP). (Reuters)

Facebook raises the target of its IPO to $34 to $38, which could push a valuation as high as $106 billion. (WSJ)

LightSquared files for Chapter 11. (WSJ)

The chairman of Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) steps down over governance violations. (WSJ)

Investors are upset that Chesapeake had to take a $3 billion loan. (WSJ)

Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) to offer a low-cost smartphone. (WSJ)

Eurostat says EU industrial production fell in the March. (WSJ)

California governor Jerry Brown shows a series of planned cuts as projections for the state’s deficit rise to $15.7 billion. (WSJ)

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Intellectual Ventures buy 500 patents as the chip maker girds for patent wars. (WSJ)

JCPenney (NYSE: JCP) CEO Ron Johnson may be unable to work the same magic he did at Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) stores. (WSJ)

JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon encourages a culture of risk at the bank. (WSJ)

Facebook still faces the question of how well it can do with smartphones. (FT)

Some EU officials would like to see eased terms of Greece’s austerity commitments. (Bloomberg)

A chip supply shortage could hurt smartphone sales. (Bloomberg)

Apple may launch a thin laptop powered by Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) chips. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Apple has steam-rolled its competition in the smartphone and tablet PC business. It means to press in the PC business as well. Apple still has a relatively small portion of the PC market compared to Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), although its share is high among expense machines. Apple’s Mac sales continue to grow at an unexpectedly good rate.

The market is not growing in the US, so Apple’s new product makes the prospects of its larger rivals dimmer.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The company’s CEO could barely contain his enthusiasm:

Kepler GPUs [graphics processing units] are accelerating our business. Our newly launched desktop products are winning some of the best reviews we’ve ever had. Notebook GPUs had a record quarter. And Tegra is on a growth track again, driven by great mobile device wins and the upcoming Windows on ARM launch.

Nvidia, which licenses designs from ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ: ARMH), may be getting back on track following a couple of weak quarters. Like other ARM licensees such as Qualcomm Corp. (NASDAQ: QCOM), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: TXN), Nvidia is profiting from the explosive demand for mobile devices like smartphones and tablets.

The company’s growth prospects are further enhanced by a decision from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) to release a version of is Windows 8 operating system for ARM-based processors, the company’s first foray from the x86-designs of Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD).

Nvidia forecast second quarter revenue of $990 million to $1.05 billion, significantly above the current consensus estimate of $976.2 million. Non-GAAP gross margins are also expected to rise from 50.1% in the first quarter to 51.5% in the second quarter.

The company’s share price is down about -45% since the beginning of 2011. Nvidia’s forward P/E ratio in February of 2011 was north of 63. That has fallen to 13.65 today, indicating an abundance of enthusiasm from investors that the company simply couldn’t deliver on. The situation is changing now, and Nvidia might actually be set to deliver the goods.

Shares are up 9.5% in the pre-market this morning, at $13.58 in a 52-week range of $11.47-$20.52.

Paul Ausick