We saw very unusual options trading late today during the last hour of trading in shares of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS). This is the day after reports that Brazil’s Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) was interested in the company as one of the possible acquisitions in the potash and agri-business. We also saw a late-day sudden move of over $2.00 to the downside.
This highly unusual options trading in Mosaic had all the characteristics of last minute options rolls as today is the expiration date for the July 2009 stock options. Interestingly enough, the same sort of late-day dip was seen in shares of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) and even in Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI). Potash Corp. also saw some obvious options roll trading that looked like a mini volume spike, but not in Intrepid.
Unless told differently, we will attribute all of the late-day action to the options roll. Either way, we wanted to dig down and try to use options as a prediction tool to see just what price is expected to come if Vale does make a play for Mosaic. This movement was quick enough and violent enough that we would not be surprised if this ends up being one of those classical trading patterns where large options trading triggered a big move and caused the rumor mongers to start barking.
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Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE:IPI) has announced that President and Chief Operating Officer, Patrick L. Avery, is leaving the company. This isn’t over management performance or over company developments. He apparently was “mistaken” about a couple of degrees on his resume.


