IPI – 24/7 Wall St.

Posts for Ticker ‘IPI’

Unusual Options Trading in Mosaic, Options Price Predicting (MOS, VALE)

We saw very unusual options trading late today during the last hour of trading in shares of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS). This is the day after reports that Brazil’s Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) was interested in the company as one of the possible acquisitions in the potash and agri-business. We also saw a late-day sudden move of over $2.00 to the downside.

This highly unusual options trading in Mosaic had all the characteristics of last minute options rolls as today is the expiration date for the July 2009 stock options. Interestingly enough, the same sort of late-day dip was seen in shares of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) and even in Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI). Potash Corp. also saw some obvious options roll trading that looked like a mini volume spike, but not in Intrepid.

Unless told differently, we will attribute all of the late-day action to the options roll. Either way, we wanted to dig down and try to use options as a prediction tool to see just what price is expected to come if Vale does make a play for Mosaic. This movement was quick enough and violent enough that we would not be surprised if this ends up being one of those classical trading patterns where large options trading triggered a big move and caused the rumor mongers to start barking.
Read More »

Posted on: July 17, 2009 – 4:06 pm in Agriculture, Mergers and Buy Outs, Options, Rumors, Trading Alert, IPI, MOS, POT, VALE

New Fertilizer Dump, India and USDA (POT, MOS, AGU, CF, TRA, TNH, IPI, MOO)

Fertilizer stocks just can’t catch a break. If it isn’t an official earnings warning to watch out for or the stock market and economic growth concerns, then it government data. New data reported from the U.S. Department of Agriculture has raised concerns that farmers are going without fertilizer. Add in a report of another price drop in potash in India and you have the double whammy. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), Terra Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRA), Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (NYSE: TNH), and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) are all seeing some action today. Just not good action. Even the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is getting hit.

Posted on: July 10, 2009 – 1:19 pm in Agriculture, Economy, Trading Alert, AGU, CF, IPI, MOO, MOS, POT, TNH, TRA

Top Analyst Upgrades (AMZN, COH, FDX, IPI, JWN, QCOM, RIMM, URBN)

These are Tuesday’s top analyst upgrades and positive research calls we have seen early this morning with more than two hours until the market opens:

Amazon.com (AMZN) Raised to Outperform at Cowen.
Coach (COH) Started as Outperform at Robert W. Baird.
FedEx (FDX) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
Intrepid Potash (IPI) Started as Outperform at RBC.
Nordstrom (JWN) Started as Outperform at Robert W. Baird.
Qualcomm (QCOM) Started as Outperform at BMO Capital Markets.
Research in Motion (RIMM) Started as Outperform at BMO Capital Markets.
Urban Outfitters (URBN) Started as Outperform at Robert W. Baird.

Jon C. Ogg

Posted on: June 30, 2009 – 6:33 am in Analyst Calls, AMZN, COH, FDX, IPI, JWN, QCOM, RIMM, URBN

Potash Earnings Issues Now Credibility Issues (POT, MOS, AGU, CF, TRA, TNH, IPI, MOO)

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) did last night what most traders already feared was coming. The Canadian potash supply giant said that weak demand for its products and lower prices were going to take earnings for the quarter down to about $0.70 EPS versus a previous forecast of $1.10 to $1.50 EPS. This is hitting other potash and fertilizer companies including Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), Terra Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRA), Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (NYSE: TNH), and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI). Even the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is indicated to open lower this morning.
Read More »

Posted on: June 26, 2009 – 6:48 am in Agriculture, Earnings Warning, AGU, CF, IPI, MOO, MOS, POT, TNH, TRA

Giving Ag, Potash, and Fertilizers A Second Chance (MON, POT, MOS, IPI, AGU, CF, MOO)

Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) and Intrepid Potash,Inc. (NYSE: IPI) are all recovering at least some from yesterday’s major drops. While Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) are lower again, the declines are minuscule compared to yesterday’s reaction to the news. Even the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is trading up marginally. These stocks were crushed yesterday by word of lower demand and lower prices over at K+S in Europe.

Posted on: June 18, 2009 – 11:53 am in Agriculture, Technical Analysis, Trading Alert, AGU, CF, IPI, MON, MOO, MOS, POT

Potash and Fertilizer Stocks Skunked By News From Germany (POT, MOS, MON, AGU, CF, IPI, MOO, SYT)

If you thought European stock news from companies doesn’t matter, this morning is proof against that notion. A German company called K+S warned of weak potash demand and announced price cuts and a drop in sales expectations. It is calling Q2 demand very weak ahead of the fall fertilization. This news has not yet been issued by US and Canadian fertilizer and potash players, but shares of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) are getting hammered. Even the agriculture ETF such as the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is getting hit along with Syngenta AG (NYSE: SYT).
Read More »

Posted on: June 17, 2009 – 11:45 am in Agriculture, Earnings Warning, Trading Alert, AGU, CF, IPI, MON, MOO, MOS, POT

Top Analyst Downgrades (CLX, CTV, HD, IPI, MU, WSM)

These are some of the top analyst downgrades or negative research calls we have seen early this Monday morning:

Clorox (CLX) Cut to Underperform at Bernstein.
Commscope (CTV) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Home Depot (HD) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.
Intrepid Potash (IPI) Cut to Sell at Soleil.
Micron (MU) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: May 11, 2009 – 6:46 am in Analyst Calls, CLX, CTV, HD, IPI, MU, WSM

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AMZN, BBY, KO, GENZ, HAL, IPI, RIG, AFL, PBR, VE)

These are some of the top pre-market early bird analyst upgrades and downgrades from Wall Street this Monday morning:

Amazon.com (AMZN) Raised to Buy at Piper Jaffray.
Best Buy (BBY) Raised to Outperform at William Blair.
Coca-Cola (KO) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Genzyme (GENZ) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Halliburton (HAL) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
Intrepid Potash (IPI) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Transocean (RIG) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
AFLAC (AFL) Cut to Sell at UBS.
Petrobras (PBR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Veolia Environment SA (VE) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: March 9, 2009 – 6:42 am in Analyst Calls, AFL, AMZN, BBY, GENZ, HAL, IPI, KO, PBR, RIG, VE

Fired For Lying About Degrees (IPI)

Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE:IPI) has announced that President and Chief Operating Officer, Patrick L. Avery, is leaving the company. This isn’t over management performance or over company developments. He apparently was “mistaken” about a couple of degrees on his resume.
Read More »

Posted on: February 11, 2009 – 6:43 pm in Agriculture, Management Change, Agriculture, cheating, Firing a CEO, Intrepid Potash, IPI, Lying about degrees, lying on resume, Misrepresenting degrees, Potash

Fertilizer, Ag, and Potash… Almost Cool Again (AGU, MOS, TRA, IPI, POT, CF)

There have been several research calls in the potash, agriculture, and fertilizer sector this morning which have pushed stocks higher. Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Terra Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRA), Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) are all trading higher.

Posted on: December 16, 2008 – 10:07 am in Agriculture, Analyst Calls, Trading Alert, AGU, CF, IPI, MOS, POT, TRA

Growing List of Damaged Post-IPO’s (SB, NM, RSOL, RAX, IPI, WES, PSE)

We would be reporting the economic numbers from the government’s Department of Redundancy Department if we said it is an ugly bear market and if we told you that the IPO market was all but dead. But what is amazing here is the absolute poor performance we have seen out of the 2008 post-IPO companies. Many of these companies are still doing well, and some are not. But in our screen of the big IPO’s there is an astonishing number of post-IPO’s that are trading much worse than just busted IPO’s by being under the IPO price.

Our list of 2008 IPO’s here was 30% and a somewhat active stock volume. Below is the list of post-IPO’s we track with shares down more than 30% from the IPO price:

Posted on: October 7, 2008 – 4:17 pm in Uncategorized, IPI, NM, PSE, RAX, RSOL, SB, WES

Mosaic Proves Potash & Fertilizer Are Back To Poop (MOS, POT, IPI)

Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is being slaughtered this morning. Any hopes that agriculture was going to be cool again are gone. The phosphate and potash producer’s earnings missed the bar by what might as well be a long shot. Earnings were $2.65 per share on $4.32 billion in revenue. Analysts expected earnings of $2.94 on $4.11 billion in revenue, according to First Call. While these numbers are up massively from last year, it isn’t indicative of the wild growth of earlier that investors.

Posted on: October 2, 2008 – 8:56 am in Agriculture, Earnings, Earnings Warning, IPI, MOS, POT

Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (AKS, BHI, IPI, NAT, PSYS, SGLP, SNN, SYNA, ULTA)

AKS, BHI, IPI, NAT, PSYS, SGLP, SNN, SYNA, ULTA
These are some of the top upgrades or positive analyst calls we are seeing this Wednesday morning in early pre-market hours:

AK Steel (AKS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Baker Hughes (BHI) raised to Buy at UBS.
Intrepid Potash (IPI) Started as Outperform at BMO Capital.
Nordic American Tanker (NAT) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS) Started as Buy at Stanford Group.
Semgroup Energy (SGLP) Raised to Market Perform at Wachovia.
Smith & Nephew (SNN) Raised to Buy at Piper Jaffray.
Synaptics (SYNA) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Ulta Salon (ULTA) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.

Jon C. Ogg
July 23, 2008

Posted on: July 23, 2008 – 6:33 am in Analyst Calls, AKS, BHI, IPI, NAT, PSYS, SGLP, SNN, SYNA, ULTA

50%-Plus IPO Gainers of 2008 (ATAI, IPI, TITN, V)

IPO’s have been much lower in numbers of late because of current market conditions. But companies that came public have still managed to see their share of winners with the likes of ATA Inc. (NASDAQ: ATAI), Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI), Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN), and Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) all fitting into the IPO-winners category with gains of 50% or more.

ATA Inc. (NASDAQ: ATAI) has seen a 51% gain since its January 28 IPO after its near 1% gain today. This one is thin volume and has had a post-IPO range of $8.02 to $17.45. ATA’s IPO priced at $9.50. At least no one confused this one with the former ATA Airlines.

Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI) has been a real winner and by the name you’d put this one in the "Land of Duh!" category. This one is up over 80% since the April 21, 2008 IPO at $58.00. Its IPO priced at $32.00 and its post-IPO trading range is $43.36 to $61.37.

Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN) is technically a 2007 IPO as it came public on December 5, 2007. But it is the single best post-IPO performer with a gain of more than 200%. That is even after a 4% drop today to $26.17 late in the day. Its IPO priced at $8.50, but its post-IPO trading range over the last seven months is $11.50 to $27.79. Take a guess why… ag-equipment.

Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) has been a beast since its March 19, 2008 IPO, even though it is already more than $10.00 off of its highs. Shares are up some 80% from its $44.00 IPO pricing, although its post-IPO trading range is $55.00 to $89.84. Even if you just count the post-IPO lows that you could have bought it at, it’s still up close to 45%.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other developments in IPO’s, secondary financings, spin-offs, mergers, and other special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
June 12, 2008

Posted on: June 12, 2008 – 3:01 pm in IPOs, ATAI, IPI, TITN, V

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ADCT, ALXN, ANAD, CCJ, ENR, GENZ, IPI, IVZ, SPLS, JAVA)

These are some of the top analyst calls we are looking at this Wednesday morning:

ADC Telecom (NASDAQ: ADCT) raised to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
Alexion Pharma (NASDAQ: ALXN) started as Buy at Jefferies.
Anadigics (NASDAQ: ANAD) cut to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
Energizer (NYSE: ENR) started as Outperform at Bernstein.
Genzyme (NASDAQ: GENZ) raised to Outperform at Bernstein.
Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI) started as Sell at Soleil.
InVesco (NYSE: IVZ) started as Buy at Jefferies.
Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS) raised to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) Raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.

Jon C. Ogg
May 14, 2008

Posted on: May 14, 2008 – 6:28 am in Analyst Calls, ADCT, ALXN, ANAD, CCJ, ENR, GENZ, IPI, IVZ, JAVA, SPLS

Intrepid Potash IPO Set To Trade (IPI)

Last week, Intrepid Potash Inc. (NYSE: IPI) went from a hot IPO to a scorcher in the agriculture and fertilizer sector. That was after the price target and share offering were hiked considerably. The original range was $24.00 to $26.00 for 24 million shares. Then the range went to $27.00 to $29.00 for 30 million shares.

Now this IPO has priced 30 million shares at $32.00 per share, and it is probably safe to assume that the 4.5 million shares earmarked for the overallotment will be exercised.

Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley were the final joint-book running managers of the offering with RBC Capital Markets and BMO Capital Markets Corp. listed as co-managers in the deal.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other IPO’s, key financings, secondary offerings, spin-offs and other special situation previews.

Last night on CNBC’s MAD MONEY, Jim Cramer came out with his own play book for this hot IPO. While we do not like seeing IPO’s get touted like this before they even come public, he did at least note the cautious side of the trade as well rather than all bullish calls.

The first indications seen this morning were around $40.00, although this can easily go higher or lower by the time this one actually opens.

Jon C. Ogg
April 22, 2008

Jon Ogg is a producer of and editor for both the Special Situations newsletter and the "10 Stocks Under $10" weekly newsletter for 247WallSt.com; he can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: April 22, 2008 – 7:52 am in Agriculture, IPOs, IPI

Intrepid Potash Touted Pre-IPO By Jim Cramer (IPI, POT, MOS)

The soon to price IPO of Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI) is a hot upcoming IPO that we have covered as "hot to scorcher" because of the steady rising and hikes seen in potash and fertilizer prices. We covered how the company raised its share offering and raised its total share offering. Tonight the now would-be "scorcher" just got the pre-IPO bump from Jim Cramer on CNBC’s MAD MONEY tonight that will probably create even more interest tomorrow.

While we don’t like seeing IPO’s getting "made even hotter" before they price, he did at least make some caveats on this hot agriculture and potash sector. He said he has parameters and you should not pay more than $34.00 per share in the after-market for this IPO. He thinks it should go much higher than that but you can’t just chase up indefinitely. He also said he isn’t exactly happy about the "use of proceeds" that the company is using essentially buying out its parent and then paying down debt with about 10% of the proceeds.

He thinks that Intrepid Potash could earn $1.24 EPS in 2009, and thinks it deserves a 55% premium to the 17-times 2009 at Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) because of its pure-play and because of its proximity to where the mines are located as opposed to Canadians. That was how he came up with the $34.00 level. Cramer also noted The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) in this sector.

You can join our open email distribution list where we cover IPO’s, back door plays into IPO’s, secondary offerings, spin-offs, special financings, M&A, and other previews for special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
April 21, 2008

Posted on: April 21, 2008 – 6:12 pm in Agriculture, Cramer, IPOs, IPI, MOS, POT

Intrepid Potash Hiked IPO Terms, From Hot To Scorcher (IPI)

Intrepid Potash Inc. is soon to be pricing an IPO, and the "hot status" was just confirmed. With all the hype and pricing power of anything tied to potash, nitrates, fertilizer, and anything tied to Agriculture, this was a foregone conclusion. The company issued an amended IPO filing with the SEC showing that it boosted the size of its planned IPO to a level that will now be over $1 Billion.

The Denver, Colorado-based potash producer hiked the size of the offering to 30 million shares from 24 million. If things weren’t good enough, the company also hiked its estimated price range to $27.00 to $29.00 from a prior range of $24.00 to $26.00.

The NYSE has approved its "IPI" stock ticker. The underwriting group is all large household names with Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital Markets, and BMO Capital Markets listed as underwriters. The underwriters now have an overallotment option to purchase up to 4.5 million additional shares rather than the 3.6 million shares originally indicated.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other IPO’s, back door plays into IPO’s, spin-offs. break-ups, and other special situations we frequently preview.

Fertilizer is starting to taste so good for investors that you might start seeing Fried Fertilizer fast food joints soon.

Jon C. Ogg
April 17, 2008

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com. He is a producer and editor of the Special Situation newsletter and the "10 Stocks Under $10" weekly newsletter for 247Wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: April 17, 2008 – 5:41 pm in Agriculture, IPOs, IPI

Intrepid Potash Sets IPO Terms (IPI)

Intrepid Potash, Inc. is getting closer to its upcoming IPO. The company set the terms in its amended IPO filing this morning. The filing shows an offering of some 24 million shares at a maximum proposed share price of $26.00, totaling $717 million maximum aggregate proceeds. The actual price range for shares is listed as $24.00 to $26.00 for the IPO and the company has applied to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker "IPI."

The underwriting group is listed as Goldman, Sachs & Co., Merrill Lynch & Co., and Morgan Stanley. Co-managers are listed as RBC Capital Markets and BMO Capital Markets.

We previously discussed Intrepid’s business and market position from an earlier filing. Given the gains seen currently and the strong guidance in anything tied to the fertilizer or potash industry, this IPO is one we’d expect to be oversubscribed.