Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) Reiterated Buy and Raised target to $80 at Argus.
AON Corporation (NYSE: AON) Raised to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) Raised to Hold from Sell with $50 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXEL) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
LM Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASDAQ: ERIC) Maintained Buy but target now at $14 from $19 at Argus.
Medivation, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) Raised to Buy at Argus.
NII Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: NIHD) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Rackspace Hosting Inc. (NYSE: RAX) named Momentum stock of the day at Zacks.
Range Resources Corporation (NYSE: RRC) Raised to Hold from Sell with $59 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC) Reiterated Buy and $24.00 price target at Argus.
Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) Raised to Buy at Needham.
UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks. 

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

JON C. OGG

The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is down by about 3.6% at $53.03 on close to 4 million shares, against a 52-week range of $44.86 to $89.24.  The larger rival and former takeover target of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) is down by 3.8% at $42.12 versus a 52-week range of $38.42 to $63.97.

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) is down by 3.7% at $161.00 and its 52-week trading range is $115.34 to $192.70.

Intrepid Potash Inc. (NYSE: IPI) is down the least with shares down “only 2.6%” on the day at $24.07 and against a 52-week range of $20.75 to $40.22.

Using an exchange traded fund can emphasize just how bad things are and the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is down 1.2% at $49.39 versus a 52-week range of $39.86 to $57.93.

With so much corn used in food for humans, ethanol, and animal feedstocks, corn unfortunately is a key driver for the fertilizer and potash markets. 

Sadly, things brings up the question… Just how much do the potash and fertilizer markets depend upon the taxpayer-funded farm subsidies in America?  Probably more than any of us care to think.

JON C. OGG

The 17.9 million shares are worth close to $900 million, ad that is an exponentially larger stake that what Temasek owned at the end of the September quarter.  If Temasek wants an influential stake in one of the leading phosphate and potash suppliers, what does it mean for the valuations in Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI)?

Temasek’s stake is now larger than Wellington’s 6.4% stake, but is still well under the Cargill Trusts that has been unloading shares.  We now know who likely absorbed more of the shares sales from those trusts.

Temasek’s effort to invest in resources and energy may be growing, particularly now that some of these shares have “gone on sale.”  Mosaic shares are down almost 45% from the 52-week high.  With a fund size of somewhere close to $150 billion, Temasek can afford to do deals of this size.  Effectively, this (in theory) gives the Singapore population some protection against rising potash and fertilizer prices in the future.  With a 0.4% dividend yield, the stake will not exactly be a high dividend for the sovereign wealth fund.

There is a tug of war taking place right now over the future of potash and other fertilizer prices in 2012 and beyond.  A slowing global growth story from India and China is meeting what had been solid pricing power from producers.  This news would be better received had it not been for Tuesday’s large rally followed by a post-Oracle concern about other areas deemed a bit more protected from a pending recession.

With Mosaic shares trading under 10-times expected forward earnings, even considering the international growth market risks, is it fair to ask if Mosaic is a value stock?

JON C. OGG

Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Clean Harbors, Inc. (NYSE: CLH) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) maintained Buy but cut target to $85 at Argus.
Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) Cut to Neutral at Roth.
FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
KBR, Inc. (NYSE: KBR) listed as the value stock of the day at Zacks.
McDermott International (NYSE: MDR) called Bear of the Day at Zacks.
NetSuite Inc. (NYSE: N) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
NII Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: NIHD) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
SuccessFactors, Inc. (NASDAQ: SFSF) Removed from U.S. Focus List at Credit Suisse.
Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) Maintained Buy but target to $35 at Argus.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
VimpelCom Ltd. (NYSE: VIP) Raised to Overweight at HSBC.
Zions Bancorp. (NASDAQ: ZION) Cut to Underperform at Stern Agee; Maintained Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
OmniVision Technologies (NASDAQ: OVTI) Reiterated Buy with $38 target at Canaccord Genuity.
PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE: PMI) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Seattle Genetics Inc. (NASDAQ: SGEN) Reiterated Sell with $10 target at Canaccord Genuity.
SLM Corporation (NYSE: SLM) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) Raised to Hold at Auriga.
Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) Started as Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTXS) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) Reiterated Buy with $26 target at Argus.
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: CTB) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Dillard’s, Inc. (NYSE: DDS) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Emdeon Inc. (NYSE: EM) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.
Equinix, Inc. (NASDAQ: EQIX) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Gap, Inc. (NYSE: GPS) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
ManTech International Corp. (NASDAQ: MANT) Cut to Underperform with $34 target at Credit Suisse.
Sanmina-SCI Corp. (NASDAQ: SANM) Reiterated Buy with $15 target at Argus.
Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) Cut to Hold at S&P Equity Research.
Sunoco Logistics Partners. L.P. (NYSE: SXL) Raised to Outperform with $93 target at Credit Suisse.
Wendy’s Company (NYSE: WEN) Started as Buy at Janney Capital.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

The performance of the last three-months has shares down over 20%.  As far as how this compares to peer stocks, in the last three-months we have Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) down only about 12%, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) is down only about 5%, and even Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (NYSE: TNH) is down only about 6% or so.  Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) has actually performed worse than MOsaic in the last 3-month period but it has a market cap of only about $2.2 billion.

It was back in January when the Cargill sale was first telegraphed, and many investors were not even aware that Cargill’s stake was so huge.  Mosaic shares were above $88.00 as recently as February and the stock has lost more than one-quarter of its value since then.  The game-changing event for the entire potash and fertilizer valuation was when Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) was given a $38+ billion buyout offer by BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE: BHP).  This changed the valuation metrics and our take is that the Cargill owners decided to capture what the could while they could.  Mosaic is also a part of the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO).

Mosaic and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) have litigation together as Mosaic said it believes it is not under obligation to deliver potash to Potash Corp. from the Esterhazy mine other than PCS’s remaining inventory.

Mosaic announced the approval for the secondary offering as a spin-off earlier this month.  The 100 million shares of common stock relate to Cargill’s exchange of its roughly 64% interest in Mosaic with Cargill stockholders and certain debt holders. This offering is expected to be about 92.5 million shares owned by Cargill’s debt holders following a debt-for-equity exchange and another 7.5 million shares owned by a charitable trust and foundation formed through the estate planning of Margaret A. Cargill.

The leaders in the share sale are Credit Suisse, J.P. Morgan, and UBS.  Those underwriters have been given a 30-day overallotment option to purchase up to 15 million additional shares from the selling stockholders.

It is surprising that the sale is being done on a Friday.  So, what do we expect from Mosaic now?  At $66.21 after a 3.3% sell-off on Thursday, the 52-week range for Mosaic shares has been $37.68 to $89.24.  Mosaic shares broke under the 200-day moving average early last week per the stockcharts.com chart and now shares are flirting with the lowest prices since last December.

Where the stock trades ahead may depend upon the pricing of the shares.  The good news is that Mosaic was above $70.00 as recently as last week and shares were above $77.00 one month ago.  Unlike dilutive offerings, these shares had already been counted in the fully diluted amount even if they were not a part of the free-float.  This move will also make the Plymouth, Minnesota-based Mosaic shares likely more eligible for index inclusions here in the U.S.

If a substantial discount comes in Mosaic shares tomorrow, then this selling will have been far too much for the extra float.  The overhang will have finally settled by early next week, and it would be easy to expect that shares could get back up to $70 or even $72 before profit taking from the new shareholders absorb so much stock.  Thomson Reuters still has a consensus price target of about $85 per share on the stock.

JON C. OGG

Other fertilizer and seed companies, including Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), Agrium Corp. (NYSE: AGU), Intrepid Potash Inc. (NYSE: IPI), and Compass Minerals International Inc. (NYSE: CMP), are generally expected to be among the lifted boats.

Syngenta reported sales for its first quarter of $4.02 billion, with year-over-year growth of 11% in its crop protection segment, to $2.79 billion. The company’s seeds segment grew 20%, to $1.24 billion. Overall, Syngenta’s revenue beat estimates by about $100 million for the quarter. For the full year, analysts expect earnings to total $1.77 billion, which calculates out to EPS of about $3.84.

Monsanto reported first quarter EPS last week of $1.88 on revenue of $4.13 billion, and re-affirmed its full-year guidance for EPS of $2.72-$2.82. Both its actual revenue and its guidance were below analysts’ expectations, causing a share price drop of about -4.5% from which the stock has not yet recovered. With the exception of Syngenta, Monsanto also dragged down all the other stocks as well. Monsanto reports third fiscal quarter results in late June, and is expected to post EPS of $1.12 on revenue of $3.4 billion.

Mosaic reported its fiscal third quarter earnings about two weeks ago, handily beating expectations by posting EPS of $1.21, compared with expectations of $1.08. Revenue totaled $2.2 billion, below estimates of $2.34 billion. The company reports its fourth quarter earnings in July, and is expected to post EPS of $1.38 on revenue of $2.57 billion.

Potash Corp. reports its first quarter earnings on April 28th. The company is expected to post EPS of $0.80 on revenue of $2.02 billion. The company tripled its margins on nitrogen fertilizer in the fourth quarter of 2010, and forecast strong prices through the spring planting season for corn, which requires a lot of nitrogen. The company’s potash fertilizer, though, is its main profit driver and will continue to be so for 2011.

Agrium is scheduled to report first quarter earnings on May 4th. Analysts expect EPS of $0.93 on revenue of $2.3 billion. The company did not provide 2011 guidance other than to note tight supplies of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers were likely to give profits a boost in 2011.

Intrepid reports first quarter earnings on May 4th, and is expected to post EPS of $0.32 on sales of $102 million. In a preliminary sales report the company said it produced 230,000-240,000 tons of potash in the quarter and sold it at an average price of $435-$445/ton. That yields a revenue range of about $100-$107 million.

Compass reports first quarter earnings on April 27th, and is expected to post EPS of $1.80 on revenue of $400.3 million. In the fourth quarter the company posted EPS of $1.70, short of estimates of $1.83. Its specialty fertilizer division more than doubled quarterly sales in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with the same period in 2009. But average sales price per ton fell, clipping margins. Compass expects revenues to be good in 2011, but margins will continue to be a problem.

Syngenta shares are up more than 1% in early trading, to $68.18, after posting a new 52-week high of $68.67 just after the market opened. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is down fractionally, as are all the other stocks mentioned here except Compass, which is up about 0.05%, to $92.70, within a 52-week range of $68.50-$98.00.

Paul Ausick

Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) Raised to Overweight at HSBC.
Charles River Labs (NYSE: CRL) Raised to Hold at S&P Equity Research (late-Wednesday).
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) Raised to Hold at Argus.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE: CSC) Cut to Hold at S&P Equity Research (late-Wednesday).
Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) Cut to Market Perform at BMO.
ITT Corporation (NYSE: ITT) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE: JCI) Raised to Outperform as the Bull of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.
NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYSE: NYX) Cut removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs; Cut to Sell at S&P Equity Research (late-Wednesday).
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) Raised to Neutral at BofA/ML; On Credit Suisse focus list and target raised to $150.
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) Cut to Neutral at UBS.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

AFLAC Inc. (NYSE: AFL) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Alkermes, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALKS) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) Started as Sell at Goldman Sachs.
General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) Raised to Buy at Argus.
Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) Raised to Neutral at BofA/ML.
MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) Raised to Buy at Sterne Agee.
The Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE: SHAW) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX) Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG