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	<title>24/7 Wall St. &#187; IT spending</title>
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		<title>The Bear Market&#8217;s Big Sucker Rally (MSFT)(BA)(GE)(F)(FNM)(FRE)(WM)(LEH)</title>
		<link>http://247wallst.com/2008/09/09/the-bear-market/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Sep 2008 04:45:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>247wallst</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[employment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[F]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fannie Mae]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FNM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freddie Mac]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IT spending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Leh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Microsoft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSFT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oracle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WM]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[In community college Economics 101 students learn that there can be dips in bull markets. Usually these are caused by a single event like a change in the party that runs Congress. The same holds true for bear markets. Suckers jump in on one piece of news or another. The market spikes up. A week [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=247wallst.com&amp;blog=5450697&amp;post=2493&amp;subd=247wallst&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://247wallst.wordpress.com/2008/09/30/in-debt-crisis/image-1-angrybear_tphqjpg-for-post-2105/" title="Image (1) angrybear_tphq.jpg for post 2105"><img height="108" border="0" width="100" src="http://247wallst.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/angrybear.jpg?w=100&#038;h=108" alt="Angrybear" title="Angrybear" style="margin: 0px 5px 5px 0px; float: left;" /></a>In community college Economics 101 students learn that there can be dips in bull markets. Usually these are caused by a single event like a change in the party that runs Congress. The same holds true for bear markets. Suckers jump in on one piece of news or another. The market spikes up. A week later, it&#8217;s gone.</p>
<p>The Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) rescue pushed the market higher and may do so for a few days. In Asia, they know better. The rally never made it beyond the first 24 hours. Markets turned down in Day Two.</p>
<p><span id="more-2493"></span></p>
<p>The overwhelming evidence is that almost no one benefited from the government taking over the agencies. The rest of the economy is in the toilet. A lot of data has come out in the last day underscoring that point.</p>
<p>The well-regarded Manpower Employment Outlook Survey&#8217;s look at corporate hiring plans found that a net 9% of firms expect to hire in the fourth quarter, down from 12% in the previous quarter, and 18% for the fourth quarter a year ago. <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/slide-hiring-plans-worst-20/story.aspx?guid=%7B692FAA6C%2D1CEC%2D440D%2D82FF%2D0DB56D16853E%7D">According to</a> MarketWatch, this is the longest string of quarterly declines in two decades. </p>
<p>A quick glance over at the Forrester study of IT spending found that <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/71666208-7dde-11dd-bdbd-000077b07658.html">43% of companies</a> have cut IT spending this year. How can companies like Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft (MSFT), and IBM (IBM) have strong earnings into next year with that kind of trend?</p>
<p>A Bloomberg News survey of 39 economists <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aeEjC9niiVXQ&amp;refer=home">showed that</a> they believe pending US home sales dropped again in July. </p>
<p>All three pieces of data are less than 24 hours old. </p>
<p>The market really did not rally. A few stocks did. GE (GE) sits at $29, still relatively near multi-year lows. Boeing (BA) faces a strike which could go on for months. That will hurt earnings and employment at scores of its suppliers. Boeing&#8217;s shares could clearly drop. Ford (F) is barely off a 20-year low. The same could be said of Microsoft (MSFT).</p>
<p>If the stock prices of Washington Mutual (WM) and Lehman (LEH) tell any tale it is that they will have to be rescued or cease to exist as independent companies. </p>
<p>Most of the seminal stocks in key industries are still well down and have little prospect of recovery.</p>
<p>If a recession is defined by the breadth of its damage, this is already a powerful one.</p>
<p>Douglas A. McIntyre</p>
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	<category domain="tickers">BA</category><category domain="tickers">Economy</category><category domain="tickers">employment</category><category domain="tickers">F</category><category domain="tickers">Fannie Mae</category><category domain="tickers">FNM</category><category domain="tickers">FRE</category><category domain="tickers">Freddie Mac</category><category domain="tickers">GE</category><category domain="tickers">Housing</category><category domain="tickers">IT spending</category><category domain="tickers">Leh</category><category domain="tickers">Microsoft</category><category domain="tickers">MSFT</category><category domain="tickers">Oracle</category><category domain="tickers">US economy</category><category domain="tickers">WM</category>
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