Posts for Ticker ‘Jim Cramer’

Imagine That: An IPO Coming This Week (BMY, MJN)

money-stack-picIf you can believe it, there is an initial public offering on deck this week. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) is set to partially spin off Mead Johnson Nutrition (NYSE: MJN). It looks like it is actually going to come to market as many have hoped.
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Jim Cramer Interviews Hillary Clinton

On CNBC’s MAD MONEY, Jim Cramer interviewed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton on several economic issues.  Keep in mind this was a mere ten minute segment, so this was far from a full economic policy session with all the points.  These comments are all paraphrasing, so please understand any slight discrepancies on a word for word basis.  Below are the comments, and Cramer’s questions or statements are in bold.

Cramer said Hillary was well ahead of the curve in identifying the housing crisis.

  • Hillary said that many people were mislead into scam mortgages, and that regulators haven’t done enough.  She wants a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures and to freeze adjustable rate mortgages.  "We need bolder action, and we need it now."

Cramer talked about unleashing the FHA as far as those who cannot refinance the houses they live in.

  • Hillary said she advocated that and the FHA would have to raise limits.  Inflation is up and these uncharted waters are going to be hard to navigate.

Cramer asked about Washington playing a role in the mortgage problem. 

  • Hillary said this was entire unprecedented.  She noted many borrowers were mislead with over-enthusiastic appraisals and the scam went from top to bottom.

As far as NAFTA, Cramer noted that a NAFTA suspension would create a major economic shut-down.

  • Hillary said there is actually an opt-out in NAFTA, it’s been on the books for 14 years and it is time for a change to the rules.  She said she wants balanced growth.

Cramer then asked about inflation and "burning food" at the expense of food prices, part of his ag-flation theme. He said if we scrapped ethanol it would bring those prices down.

  • Hillary said it is a little more complicated, but rising corn and soybeans have contributed.  She said we are in a transition period that requires all forms of alternative energy and she then noted cellulosic, wind, solar, and new forms of energy for cars. She wants more hybrids and more plug-in cars.  She did NOT note anything about nuclear power plants, and Cramer didn’t go there even on a sidebar comment.
  • Here were some prior Cramer comments there on ag-flation: Last night Cramer said to put several of the ag-flation beneficiaries on your shopping list after these stock prices take a hit after this week;  he also featured another stock as a hidden value agriculture stock; here were his "wild bull market picks" in the sector last year if you’d like to compare.

Cramer asked "Are you going to eliminate the low taxes on dividends on stocks?"

  • Hillary said we might see some increase but nothing severe that would affect overall investing. But then she did note that people over $250K per year would revert back to the 1990’s level and it woulds help fund a universal health care.
  • It’s been a while, but here were Cramer’s boring yield stocks for retirement and here were Cramer’s Dogs of the Dow targets.

OK, now we know some of you love Cramer and some of you can’t stand him.  We also know many of you like Hillary and many are as far away from liking here as it can be.  These are a paraphrasing of their comments, and nothing more other than support data on the topics discussed.  We won’t be trying to influence your decision, nor will we make any apologies or excuses for any questions or statements that are "for or against" any public policies that investors and voters alike will use in making their decisions.

Jon C. Ogg
February 27, 2008

Record Revenues on TheStreet.com (TSCM)

TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) has just posted earnings at $0.17 pro forma EPS on a 38% jump in revenues to a record $19.9 million.  First Call had estimates at $0.16 on $19.95 million in revenues.

TheStreet.com reported a 125% year-over-year increase in non-financial advertising revenue, which is now 52% of ad revenues; total advertising revenue reached a record $6.8 million, which is a 43% increase over Q4-2006.  Paid services revenue in the fourth quarter of 2007 (subscription, syndication, licensing and information services) rose 8% to $10.4 million for the quarter.  Syndication is winning out over subscriptions it looks like: subscription revenues fell 4% to $8.5 million while syndication, licensing, and info services rose 142% to $1.9 million.

Jon C. Ogg
February 21, 2008

Cramer’s Big Pipe Hit (WG)

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer came out discussing oil and gas infrastructure, and said that a relatively small player name Willbros Group, Inc. (NYSE: WG) is a winner.  The company focuses on pipelines and associated facilities for onshore, coastal, and offshore locations.  He noted how the company sees $8 Billion worth of opportunity down the road in the coming years as we need several thousand more miles of pipeline both upstream and midstream.  This one also only has a $1.2 Billion market cap.  Cramer noted this is at the heart of the return of the natural gas and infrastructure theme. 

This closed down 2.6% today at $34.78 and the 52-week range is $20.05 to $62.04.  Cramer’s target: $45.00.

Jon C. Ogg
February 14, 2008

TheStreet.com Takes On An Investor (TSCM)

TheStreet.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSCM) has announced that Technology Crossover Ventures has agreed to purchase a minority stake in TheStreet.com for some $55 million.  The investment is to support the Company’s accelerated expansion strategy. 

The breakdown of the investment is quite interesting, and it does not look like on the surface that this financing  is one where TheStreet.com is giving the keys to the palace away.  The investment of $55 million represents the purchase of preferred stock and warrants to purchase shares of common stock. The preferred stock converts into common stock at $14.26 per share. The five-year warrants permit TCV to purchase approximately 1.1 million shares of common stock at an exercise price of $15.686, or a premium of 10%. The preferred stock receives dividends at the same rate as the underlying company’s common shares, and has a one-time liquidation preference.  We’ll try to get a full breakdown of the exact terms.

We recently noted where TheStreet.com was out diversifying from only being known for stock and financial market commentary and research.  In the coming months, TheStreet.com will launch a new site, Mainstreet.com and it will also re-launch its free sites, TheStreet.com and Stockpickr.com, as it enhances its position as the premier destination for money.

"TCV" provides growth capital to late-stage private and public companies.  Jay Hoag, founding general partner of TCV, will join TheStreet.com’s board of directors.  It sure sounds like TheStreet.com’s acquisition path is not finished.

Shares closed down 4.2% in normal trading at $13.66 today, and the 52-week trading range is $8.20 to $14.25.

Jon C. Ogg
November 15, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer’s Cheap Expensive Stocks (GOOG, ISRG, BIDU)

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer was touting growth stocks he deems cheap, even though the prices sound high.

Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is Cramer’s first cheap growth stock.  With 34% long-term growth, and some fund managers paying 50-times earnings for that growth rate, his assumption to get to $750 is only 37-times 2008 and he thinks it is cheap and headed higher.  Cramer thought he’d have seen $675 if the market wasn’t so bad Friday.  It’s also a window dressing stock, similar to the list we recently gave.  We also gave our recent  "How long until $1,000" question in relation to higher and higher analyst targets.

His second stock that is still cheap is Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) even at $285 per share.  We noted "Bionic Man Earnings" on this one last week. The stock held up on Friday and the momentum investors think it may be over, but they are wrong.  He loves the robotic surgery da Vinci device that allows for open heart procedures to be done with micro-incisions and that shortens hospital stays drastically.  He also likes the 40% recurring sales after the da Vinci system sales are made for disposable parts and only 17 systems sold overseas last quarter.  If you use forward earnings estimates its PEG ratio is about 1.5, and that is cheap for the growth here according to Cramer.

On a call-in, Cramer said that despite the multiples, Baidu.com (NASDAQ:BIDU) shares are heading higher.  You’ll have to chase that one on your own.  The Alibaba IPO may draw more attention to the Chinese web space, but we noted previous lessons from the dot.com bubble here previously and noted how the stock was fighting to hold $300 recently.  This company will have to do much more than just beat its forward earnings.

Jon C. Ogg
October 22, 2007

Cramer Hosts Pepsi’s Indra Nooyi (PEP)

Pepsico’s (NYSE:PEP) Indra Nooyi came on a telephone interview with Jim Cramer tonight on CNBC’s MAD MONEY.  Cramer said he was originally excited seeing the $0.99 EPS vs $0.96 estimate, but then he was disappointed when he saw the stock fall almost 2.5% on the report.  He thinks the food inflation is hurting it and he was disappointed with some of the unit growth.

Cramer then interviewed Ms. Nooyi said Pepsi is committed to 10% EPS growth.  She made her case about the bullish side of the equation, but Cramer said he wants to wait to wait now for an under $70.00 stock price before pulling the trigger. 

Frankly she sounded either a little defensive or maybe a little too surprised, particularly since she started out saying the equivalent of "I have no idea why the stock acted the way it did."  That’s life in the markets.  Sometimes good isn’t enough after a big run, although shares are only up about 16% from the lows over the last year.  Maybe that’s huge for a food and beverage company.

Jon C. Ogg
October 11, 2007

Cramer’s Overlooked Medical Billing Solutions IPO (ATHN, MDRX, QSII)

athenahealth (NASDAQ:ATHN) is a Web 2.0 version of medical billing, and it is like Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (NASDAQ:MDRX) and Quality Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:QSII).  He likes that the company has very high loyalty and renewal rates and this is a subscription services and this currently has $2 Billion in physician revenue under management that it gets a cut of.  He thinks it can earn $0.74 next year and even with the premium forward earnings multiples that it is actually cheap on a comparable basis to its growth.

Is this really an overlooked IPO?  No.  It came public at $18.00 and closed at $34.07.  He thinks this could go to $40.00 on its own, but also thinks a larger company could acquire it.  He also believes this will get positive analyst coverage soon.  This one ran so much that you cannot think this was overlooked at all.  This may not be that well known to the public, but traders have been playing this one over the last ten trading sessions since its IPO.  Shares rose 8% to $36.80 in after-hours on Cramer’s feature.

Jon C. Ogg
October 3, 2007

Cramer Back On The Goldman Sachs Wagon (GS, BSC)

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer wanted to review how all brokerage firms aren’t cut from the same cloth.  The broker to own is the one Cramer always touts as the best, and that is Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).  After this last quarter reports from brokers this week from the brokerage firms, he thinks it is quite clear that Goldman Sachs is the winner.

With a 50/50 rate cut Cramer thinks it is time for brokers and time for Goldman Sachs with $6.13 versus $4.35 estimates.  They even were short mortgages and made money.  Cramer still thinks this is worth $300.00 this time next year and is the best one to own.

As far as Goldman Sachs here are some other pertinent tid-bits to contemplate:
They were a TOP PICK FOR 2007 by Cramer
Even with an "Alpha Fund" hit in the news, they won
The bets were on them ahead of the report
The stocks acted weird, but the report was better than Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC)
Who else can call $135/barrel in oil and get away with it in a "Super-Spike" possibility?

Jon C. Ogg
September 20, 2007

Cramer Says The Rally Has Just Begun (T, DSL, FED)

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer said it isn’t too late to get in after the post-FOMC rally seen over the last two days.  He thinks this is like the 1990 cuts and the 1998 cut, and this is nothing compared to the market you will see ahead.  The 400 point gain is really not anything because it is going higher and you shouldn’t get scared out of the market.  Same as yesterday, he said don’t listen to the bears and nay-sayers.

Cramer doesn’t think a rate cut is going to bail out the homebuilders entirely, but he still wouldn’t short them now.  He likes the banks, but the theory and the moral hazard is great for many many stock.  If you want a review of Cramer’s fairly recent stock pick lists that he is still positive on many of the stocks, here are some of the stock lists and brief explanations:

Here is his list of TOP 9 PICKS FOR 2007
Here is his "New Four Horsemen of Tech"
Here is his Mortgage Madness Portfolio
Here are his Top China Picks
Here are Warren Buffet Stock Reviews in 10 stocks and then 10 more
Here are his numerous picks from the fantasy football stocks…Running BacksTight EndsQuarterbacks…. Defensive Linemen

Cramer also gave several other stock picks in his second segment on MAD MONEY.  But he gave his key telecom pick being AT&T (NYSE:T) because of its higher dividend and growth ahead.  He thinks it is savvy and will grow cautiously and it trades at 12-times earnings with an upswing coming.  Being the sole iPhone distributor is only helping and he thinks wireless data revenue is going to be massive.  Cramer also interviewed the CFO, Richard "Rick" Lindner, who said wireless is hitting on all cylinders with margins actually growing.  The CFO also said video is now over 100,000 customers and they have over 1 million satellite.

Other picks that Cramer noted earlier today were Downey Financial Corp. (NYSE:DSL) and FirstFed Financial (NYSE:FED).

Jon C. Ogg
September 19, 2007

Cramer’s Running Back Stock Picks (CSCO, AMZN, GOOG, FCX)

Jim Cramer continued his ‘fantasy football draft methodology’ to compile a stock portfolio that can survive through a coming recession.  He wants a stock that can deliver consistent and long-term growth for his four Running Back picks:

  • Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) is going to keep delivering and he has broken out of his past quiet-man role.
  • Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is just getting better and better after being held back a year, and it grew 9% year over year by comScore data. This is one of Cramer’s "New Four Horsemen of Tech" and he thinks it goes higher.
  • Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX) is growing from everywhere outside the U.S. that has a lock on the copper market.
  • Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) is another pick from his "New Four Horsemen of Tech" that just hit a new year high today.

Here are his Tight End picks from last night that have upside with dividend stocks.  Yesterday he also gave his "wide receiver picks" that are the aggressive big scoring stocks.  Monday night he gave his picks that were not defensive, but still the leaders as the quarterback.  But before that he gave his solid Defensive linemen picks that are defensive stock picks

Jon C. Ogg
September 12, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Jim Cramer’s Fantasy Football Stock Picks (VMW, RIMM, AAPL, ISRG)

On tonight’s MAD MONEY, Jim Cramer continued his ‘fantasy football draft pick’ methodology in picking stocks for a portfolio that will withstand a recession.  Tonight after a strong market he said you need some Offensive players with scoring ability.  Here are his wide receiver picks that keep popping up in the media that make the biggest plays (capital growth):

  • Research-in-Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM), one of the ‘New Four Horsemen of Tech’ with subscribers rising rapidly and hardware sales going gangbusters.
  • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), also one of CRAMER’S TOP PICKS FOR 2007.  iPhones and Macs are selling unbelievable well.
  • Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) is his pick in Medical Tech for the DaVinci robot.
  • VMware (NYSE:VMW) as the rookie of the year after an explosive IPO and leader in Virtualization.

Last night he gave his picks that were not defensive, but still the leaders as the quarterback.  But before that he gave his solid Defensive linemen picks that are defensive stock picks, and four of those were in our own LIST OF 17 DEFENSIVE STOCKS that we modified last Friday morning.  Sixteen of those seventeen stocks closed up today.

Jon C. Ogg
September 11, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. SPECIAL SITUATION INVESTING NEWSLETTER; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Talks Mortgage Lenders Closing Shop (LEH, WFC, WB, BAC)

On today’s STOP TRADING on CNBC, Jim Cramer said that the Lehman (NYSE:LEH) exit from the mortgage business is a positive because this wasn’t making money.  He’d be a buyer on that news.

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), and Wachovia (NYSE:WB) get it and they will be able to gouge down the road after all the mortgage players have imploded.  It is bad for home owners, but great for these guys.  The sentiment has changed since last Friday and the closures in the mortgage operations are actually a good shakeout.

These things hurt the homebuilders, but that is no surprise.

Jon C. Ogg
August 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Did Cramer Call For an October Fed Rate Cut?

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer said the FOMC meeting today was good after he considers it and was actually reassuring for 3 reasons: It is good to hear the economy hasn’t fallen apart, good to hear no new news, and the statement today showed that the Fed has at least gotten out of the clueless phase.  Cramer said this let’s the FOMC look at a potential rate cut potentially in October rather than the Fed keeping the bias the way they had toward inflationary risks. 

At the next meeting he thinks inflation will be on the back-burner in September and then it could even consider a rate cut in October.  But Cramer said he thinks the financial lenders and the homebuilders may actually sell off again.  He’d use the strength today and yesterday to sell those before they go back down.  Cramer said to buy aerospace and defense, but he thinks that tech will be great from here after Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) rocking good earnings conference call.

Jon C. Ogg
August 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Thinks Thornburg Mortgage Will Be Fine (TMA)

On today’s STOP TRADING segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer said that Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (NYSE:TMA) is one of the companies in mortgage land that is bad short that will hurt the traders betting against it.  Cramer thinks that many of these mortgage companies are really at risk, but Thornburg isn’t one of them.  Despite that many of their loans are stated income, the company has shown over and over how they pick through some of the riskier loans.  After all, Cramer just created his "Mortgage Market Madness Index" on Friday, and this was one of the components.  Earlier today he noted again that some homebuilders could be at risk as well.

Jon C. Ogg
August 6, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Launches “Cramer’s Mortgage Madness Index”

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer said that today and this week proves sometimes you can’t be too bullish.  You need a measure for an ‘all-clear’ signal to see when the market is safe to go back into.  Cramer thinks Bernanke should cut rates, particularly with more spending in Iraq than helping here for those about to lose their homes.  Here are the tickers for his news "CRAMER’S MORTGAGE MADNESS INDEX":

MGIC Investment (MTG), Countrywide (CFC), Bear Stearns (BSC), KB Home (KBH), Centex (CTX), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), Blackstone (BX), MBIA (MBI), Thornburg (TMA), Beazer (BZH), and Washington Mutual (WM).

Cramer said he’s not saying these are buys and aren’t sells, not yet anyway.  This index is just representative of the names that you have to watch because if these are still falling then it means there isn’t a stabilizing market or group.

Jon C. Ogg
August 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

What To Expect From Cisco Systems Fiscal 2007 Earnings Next Week (CSCO)

Next week, on August 7, Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) will post earnings for its quarter and fiscal year, and this will be the highlight of tech stocks for the week.  Estimates from First Call are $0.35 EPS and $9.29 Billion revenues, but keep in mind that these may change slightly since there are three more trading days.  Next quarter estimates are $0.36 EPS and $9.38 Billion in revenues.  If we get any fiscal July-2008 targets from the company, estimates are currently $1.55 EPS and $39.7 Billion in revenues.  If the company only gives guidance in percentages for fiscal 2008 you would get a static 2008 to 2007 implied 16.5% gain in EPS and a 14% gain in revenues.

Cisco’s shares have held up quite well when you consider the recent market malaise. Shares closed Thursday at $30.13, less than 1% from the highs of its $17.10 to $30.39 trading range over the last 52-weeks.  The most important level for the stock would seem to the $30.00 barrier.  This is above that level reached in January to February 2004 and the company is now far larger and executing far better.  It also has the accumulated businesses of Scientific-Atlanta, Webex, and others under its umbrella.  In fiscal 2004 the networking giant posted $22.04 Billion in revenues and it is expected to have roughly $34.75 Billion for this fiscal year (and estimated at $39.7 Billion for 2008).  The company has also been retiring stock.  So unless there are some more serious cracks forming across communications as a whole, it would seem that the company has a significantly higher base.  We’ll see if the market believes the same.

The average price target is now around $32.00 to $33.00 from analysts.  Back in January, we ran some forward valuations and the scenario that could give Cisco shares a $34.00 price mid-year.  It hasn’t hit that based on the trading range, so now the rest is up to the company.  The company just recently announced its increased share buyback plan, which we thought was a bit odd with shares at a multi-year high and it only being two-weeks ahead of earnings.  Perhaps John Chambers and crew want to try to create a much higher floor for the stock.  We’ll know Tuesday.

It is not fair to use options pricing as an estimate several days ahead of the event with erosion of time value, but as of today it appears that options traders are prepared for the stock to move up to 3% in either direction.  That number is likely to change by the time earnings actually get released, and we’ll make an update on that next week.  As a reminder, this was also one of Jim Cramer’s TOP PICKS FOR 2007.

Here is a May 8 preview we gave if you want to see any comparisons to then.  Shares ended the last quarter under $27.00, so the stock is up about 11% since then.

Jon C. Ogg
August 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Sticking With DJIA Targets & The CME (CME, NYX)

On tonight’s Mad Money on CNBC, Jim Cramer talked up his DJIA target and DJIA components (there is another batch here as well) but he also said he’s backing the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (NYSE:CME).  He thinks this will benefit hugely from the increased volume and the increased volatility in futures.  This is one he thinks that can raise fees because they are so large in market share now that the CME/CBOT merger went through.  He even said this may be a secular growth story and even thinks the stock is cheap.  The company now has accelerating revenue growth for growth managers, and he thinks estimates could be too low.

Jon C. Ogg
August 2, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Earnings Preview: Brookfield Asset Management (BAM, BRK-A)

Friday morning will be the earnings report for Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE:BAM) (and TSX:BAM). The problem with this ‘earnings’ for U.S. investors is that the company is based in Canada and First Call only has a few analysts covering it.  It looks like consensus estimates are $0.26 on EPS, but again we are reluctant to lean too much on a formal estimate based on thin coverage here of a company that will report in Canada and in the U.S.

This one got quite a recent following after Jim Cramer labeled it as potentially the ‘next Berkshire Hathaway’ recently at the end of June.  Since then shares have slid with the weak markets.  Shares are actually now in the lower-half of the $27.08 to $43.82 trading range of the last 52-weeks.  Maybe Warren Buffett is jealous.

The company on July 31 already said it would spin-off 60% of its infrastructure unit called Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. It will spin the stake off to holders of its Class A stock.  Brookfield will retain an approximate 40% equity interest in Brookfield Infrastructure and will manage its operations under a long-term management agreement.  Brookfield Infrastructure intends to seek a listing for its units on the New York Stock Exchange.

Brookfield will implement the spin-off by way of a special dividend currently estimated to be approximately US$1.00 per Brookfield Class A Share, or approximately $600 million in aggregate for 60% of the issued and outstanding interests in Brookfield Infrastructure.  Merrill Lynch & Co. and Citigroup are acting as financial advisors in connection with the spin-off.

According to the company: Brookfield Infrastructure will serve as the primary vehicle through which Brookfield will own and operate certain infrastructure assets on a global basis. Brookfield Infrastructure will focus on high quality, long-life assets that generate stable cash flows, require relatively minimal maintenance capital expenditures and, by virtue of barriers to entry and other characteristics, tend to appreciate in value over time. Its initial operations will consist of electricity transmission systems and timberlands, but Brookfield Infrastructure will seek acquisition opportunities in other sectors with similar attributes and where Brookfield’s operations oriented approach can be deployed to add value.

Jon C. Ogg
August 2, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Still Vacant on Financials, For Obvious Reasons

On today’s STOP TRADING on CNBC, Jim Cramer discussed the myriad of financial-related stocks and anything tied to housing as an area he’d still stay away from.  In fact he said he’d sell most of these on any strength until this fallout from the derivative mess is behind us.  On MasterCard (NYSE:MA), Cramer said that down $18.00 feels like an overreaction, but even then he didn’t seem overly confident and probably would want to stay away.

Unfortunately, this financial sector malaise has created a dirth of issues, and it has made us make entire changes to our BAIT SHOP methodology and put many ’stock picks’ for newsletter subscribers on hold.  Sure, as these get cheaper they get more attractive.  But I’ve gone through this before, and this is all happening ahead of any serious economic slowdown.  It is too hard to fight the tape right now and it will be hard calling any exact bottom on almost any of these financial stocks.  Today on CNBC where Charlie Gasparino even noted that Bear Stearns is getting to a level that it could in theory be thought of as a buyout candidate, but right now until the dust settles it is unlikely that any such offer would be made by anyone.  I even noted it a month ago as the potential candidate in the sector that ‘could’ get a buy, but all that hidden value inside the company has turned into ‘hidden liability’ in the recent weeks.  The lawsuits haven’t even really started and the waves of downward earnings estimates haven’t come from Wall Street itself.  Until that happens, this tape is just too hard to fight regardless of fairly recent and longer-term opinions.

Jon C. Ogg
August 1, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.