BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE: BHP) Cut to Underperform from an already-cautious Neutral rating and named as the “Bear of the Day” by Zacks Investment Research.
Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) maintained Hold (with Long-Term Buy) but cut estimates at Argus.
Delphi Automotive (NYSE: DLPH) Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Manning & Napier, Inc. (NYSE: MN) Started as Neutral at Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus; Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Mattress Firm Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: MFRM) Started as Buy at UBS.
Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP) Lowered estimates and target to $39 from J.P. Morgan.
Parker Drilling Company (NYSE: PKD) named as value stock of the day by Zacks Investment Research.
PC Connection, Inc. (NASDAQ: PCCC) named as the aggressive growth stock of the day at Zacks Investment Research.
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE: PMT) Maintained Buy and raised target to $19 at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (late Tuesday) after distressed asset purchase.
Sears Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) Maintained Underperform but cut estimates and cut target to $20.00 at Credit Suisse.
The St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) Upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and named as the “Bull of the Day” by Zacks Investment Research.
Verisk Analytics, Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSK) Maintained as Outperform but target price is only $40.00 (versus $39.95 share price) by Credit Suisse.

Read Also: Analysts’ Top Biotech Stock Picks for 2012

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JON C. OGG

This may be good for Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) as Einhorn believes that the deal is not as positive as the bulls believe and that Starbucks looks to be getting the better end of the profits.  Einhorn did disclose having a position (obviously a short-sell position).  What investors need to know is that this observation is crushing the stock and it is having more of an impact (on the flip-side) than if Warren Buffett had disclosed a position.

Einhorn often challenges companies.  He went against The St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) and Bruce Berkowitz of Fairholme Capital earlier this year saying that St. Joe was too aggressive in acquiring property and called it very overvalued.  It turns out that this one did fall and it sits very close to 52-week lows and trades at half the peak of the last year or so.

It looks as though Einhorn was probably caught long and wrong in Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) from when he called it an undervalued real estate play due to vast spectrum assets.

Einhorn had also made decent sized bets disclosed in May of this year in Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) at about 6 million shares worth over $172 million (down to around $150 million today on a static basis) and General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) with a new position of more than 3.5 million shares worth more than $100 million (down close to $80 million today on a static basis). 

Betting against companies and being vocal about them is one thing.  It certainly does not assure success.  What is funny is that Green Mountain was just featured as a very expensive stock by us due to the market valuations but also as one of the dozen or so companies which are expected to outperform the fanboy holders of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL).  

Green Mountain shares are down 11% at $81.76 and now the implied upside would be closer to 50% if the analysts are correct in their price targets.  If…  Einhorn is having a sharp impact today and now the battle will be known in time over whether or not he was right or if the bullish analysts were right for remaining so positive.

JON C. OGG

By time and date, we have included earnings estimates from Thomson Reuters, added in color on each, and have shown some general price and value data if applicable.

AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) reports Tuesday morning and Thomson Reuters has estimates for the auto-parts supplier of $3.05 EPS and $1.63 billion in revenue; estimates for the current quarter are $4.85 EPS and $1.91 billion in revenues.  With shares trading around $256.00, the 52-week trading range is $162.57 to $276.00.

Tech Data Corporation (NASDAQ: TECD) will offer some keen insight on the warehousing of and the delivery trends of the world’s technology purchases.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.43 EPS and $6.87 billion in revenues.  With shares around $50.00, its 52-week trading range is $34.82 to $51.37.

Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) reports after the close on Tuesday.  Our take is that investors will be looking for guidance over real results as there are still small numbers generated so far due to what is a minimal production scale of Provenge.  Prior 2011 guidance was promised to be very back-end loaded and that poses risks if there are any delays as it ramps up capacity. Another outstanding issue is the reimbursement rates and the use of on-label versus off-label use.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.49 EPS and $24.68 million in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.59 EPS and $29.44 in revenues.  With shares around $33.70, its 52-week range is $25.78 to $57.67 and it closed out 2010 at $34.92.

St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) is due after the close on Tuesday and it has canceled its conference call now that the CEO just stepped down and the company has brought back in Bruce Berkowitz and three new directors in an activist investor raid. Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.09 EPS and $24.3 million in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.06 EPS and $25.45 in revenues. With shares around $27.80, its 52-week range is $17.04 to $37.44 and it closed out 2010 at $21.85.

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is due with its earnings Wednesday morning and we have a positive bias after seeing Target, Wal-Mart and others this last week.  Just watch out for what is a premium valuation.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.78 EPS and $20.52 billion in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.75 EPS and $19.37 in revenues.  With shares around $74.50, its 52-week range is $53.41 to $75.48 and it closed out 2010 at $72.01.

After the close on Tuesday we have Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) and investors will be looking for its guidance more than its small numbers it has generated so far under a minimal production scale of Provenge.  The last 2011 guidance was promised to be very back-end loaded and that poses risks in case any delays come up for any reason at all.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.49 EPS and $24.68 million in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.59 EPS and $29.44 in revenues.  With shares around $33.50, its 52-week range is $25.78 to $57.67 and it closed out 2010 at $34.92.

St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) is due after the close on Tuesday.  This will not be a market mover but the company is under fire from Bruce Berkowitz and there could be a huge shake-up down the road if the activists get their way.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.09 EPS and $24.3 million in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.06 EPS and $25.45 in revenues.  With shares around $27.60 , its 52-week range is $17.04 to $37.44 and it closed out 2010 at $21.85.

Wednesday morning we have Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST).  The bias should be for a positive report after seeing Target, Wal-Mart and others this last week.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.78 EPS and $20.52 billion in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.75 EPS and $19.37 in revenues.  With shares around $73.75, its 52-week range is $53.41 to $75.48 and it closed out 2010 at $72.01.

Also Wednesday morning is Staples, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS) in the office supplies retail space. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.40 EPS and $6.48 billion in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.33 EPS and $6.22 billion in revenues.  With shares around $20.85, its 52-week range is $17.45 to $26.00 and it closed out 2010 at $22.77.  Since shares are not close to a high and being down so far in 2010, the expectations may just be an “Easy Button” even if input costs are mentioned for pressuring margins ahead.

On Thursday morning will be Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) and this is no market mover but the company has itself reportedly up for sale.  M&A seekers will be watching closely here.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.38 EPS and $1.52 billion in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.71 EPS and $1.26 billion in revenues.  With shares around $40.25, its 52-week range is $27.82 to $42.27 and it closed out 2010 at $30.46.  If there is ANY doubt about a merger, there would seem that there is only one way for shares to go: South.  This one is up considerably and it is at a time when Dollar Stores are under margin pressure and that has to at some point bleed over to the clearance discounters which compete against dollar stores in the sub-Wal-Mart space.

Also on Thursday morning will be The Kroger Company (NYSE: KR).  Whether you want to talk about food stamps or talk about food inflation, all of the food producers have noted an inability to pass higher prices on to consumers.  If so, then Kroger won’t have avoided the same issues.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.44 EPS and $19.36 billion in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.64 EPS and $25.9 billion in revenues.  With shares around $22.95, its 52-week range is $19.08 to $24.14 and it closed out 2010 at $22.26.

After the close on Thursday we have Marvell Technology Group, Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL).  While being the last of the mobile chip winners, we’d look for secondary and tertiary moves possibly in NSM, QCOM, ARMH, and BRCM. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.42 EPS and $925.64 million in revenues.  For the current quarter still ongoing, Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.37 EPS and $891.94 million in revenues.  With shares around $18.85 after a 4% rise today, its 52-week range is $13.87 to $22.87 and it closed out 2010 at $18.55.  The expectations bias might have been more neutral if it was not for the big move back up Friday.

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JON C. OGG

The reason cited for leaving the board was a disagreement over how to run the company. St. Joe is the largest private owner of land in Florida with more than a half a million acres of dirt in Florida’s panhandle.  Berkowitz has said that he would like to buy all of St. Joe if he could.

There is also a bit of a horse race taking place with Berkowitz as the prominent bull against hedge fund manager David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, who has said St. Joe has been too aggressive in acquiring property and called it very overvalued.

Bruce Berkowitz and Charles Fernandez have both withdrawn their names as candidates for future election to the board of directors of St. Joe.  What is interesting about the departure is that is just about a week after Berkowitz and Fernandez participated in their first St. Joe board meeting.   It seems that the two even had trouble calling for a meeting, let alone getting board members to allow changes to its future strategy.  Berkowitz has discussed governance, oversight, and compensation as points of disagreement.

St. Joe has said it would engage Morgan Stanley to help it explore strategic alternatives for the company, which could be a change to operations, a merger or sale, asset and property sales or joint ventures.  The good news for existing St. Joe holders is that Berkowitz is apparently not going to unload shares.  That is important because his 26.7+ million shares is close to 17-days worth of trading volume.

Whatever comes from this is hard to know, but a proxy fight would seem likely here.  Berkowitz has deeper pockets than St. Joe and he can probably coerce shareholders who have seen shares crash after the housing bubble.  Shares of St. Joe have risen by more than 50% since December.

The initial reaction is not a favorable one with shares down 3% at $26.07 so far this Monday.  The 52-week trading range is $17.04 to $37.44 and shares briefly went north of $80.00 at the peak in the summer of 2005.

JON C. OGG

Ameren Corporation (NYSE: AEE) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) Started as Hold at Jefferies.
Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
Charter Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTR) Started as Sector Perform at RBC.
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo; Cut to Market Perform at KBW; Cut to Hold at S&P Equity Research late-Wednesday.
Progress Energy Inc. (NYSE: PGN) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ: GOLD) Raised to Strong Buy at S&P Equity Research (late Wednesday call).
Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE: RF) Raised to Buy at S&P Equity Research (late Wednesday call).
The St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT) Raised to Neutral at Baird.
The Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Verisign Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSN) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.

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JON C. OGG

• Alliance Bernstein (AB) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
• Arkansas Best (ABFS) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
• Con-Way (CNY) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) Started as Overweight at Lehman.
• Franklin Resources (BEN) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
• Kennametal (KMT) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
• Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Otter Tail (OTTR) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
• Pzena (PZN) Cut to Underperform at KBW.
• Raymond James Financial (RJF) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
• St. Joe (JOE) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
• T. Rowe Price (TROW) Cut to Underperform at KBW.
• YRC Worldwide (YRCW) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.

Jon C. Ogg
September 22, 2008

• Albany Molecular (NASDAQ: AMRI) Cut to Hold from Buy at Jefferies.
• Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) Cut to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
• eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) Cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs; Cut to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
• Georgia Gulf (NYSE: GGC) Cut to Underweight at Lehman.
• ProLogis (NYSE: PLD) Cut to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan.
• The St. Joe Co. (NYSE: JOE) Cut to Underperform at Wachovia.
• Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) Cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2008

Stock (Ticker)                                                              Shares             $$$$
Ambac Financial Group (ABK)               2,699,896   $69,576,000
Arch Capital Group Ltd.(ACGL)              1,461,659   $102,828,000
Legg Mason Inc. (LM)                               3,343,553   $244,581,000
MBIA Inc. (MBI)                                           13,773,096  $236,607,000
St. Mary Land & Exploration (SM)            2,620,703   $101,185,000
The St. Joe Company (JOE)                    15,347,635  $54,4995,000
Thomas Properties Group Inc. (TPGI)    2,566,549   $27,667,000
Triad Guaranty Inc (TGIC)                          1,064,023   $10,427,000
USG Corporation (USG)                             5,573,058   $199,460,000
Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)                       1,327,543   $116,757,000

M.J. Whitman and his entire crew readily admit that they do not always catch the bottom.  They try to get in before the flood gates of buyers swarm in, and sometimes they are very early and have no problem taking a 3-year or even longer time horizon.  But they do try to look through the junk heap to see what can be cleaned up with some TLC.  Please be advised that this is a small portion of their holdings, and that full list can be seen here. 

Here are the other activist and billionaire value-esque investors we covered this weekend:

• Bill Gates
• Carl Icahn
• Warren Buffett
• George Soros
• Biriny & Associates

Jon C. Ogg
February 19, 2008

Candela (CLZR) keeps hitting the list….

Carmike Cinema’s (CKEC)…if movies hit $4 Billion and they can’t make money then they better jack up thge popcorn prices…..

Chico’s F A S (CHS) put in a new 52-week low intraday, although this sub-$17.00 marks a low if it closes here.

Delta Petroleum (DPTR) may not be a 52-week low close but that was intraday.

Eagle Test Systems Inc. (EGLT) is on that seems to keep hitting the list of late.

Franklin Electric Co., Inc., (FELE)…groundwater and fuel pumping systems… isn’t that supposed to be a hot area???

St. Joe Co. (JOE)…. would you expect anything else from a company that builds small communities and transplant-a-marsh to a town player in this housing and loan environment???

Kellwood (KWD) isn’t selling enough men’s and women’s sportwear?

Neurocham (NRMX)… today’s biotech implosion

Restoration Hardware Inc. (RSTO)… needs to restore itself maybe.  Too bad, because it’s a neat shop.  If houses aren’t selling and if money gets tight, this one can easily be avoided.

Jon C. Ogg
August 27, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.