Teen stores Buckle and Zumiez battered expectations, while Gap and Wet Seal both missed expectations badly.

Data from CNBC.

Limited Brands’ same-store sales rose 7%, compared with a consensus estimate of 4.4%. Net sales fell by -2.3%, however, from $893 million a year ago to $872.6 million. The company also announced a $2/share special dividend to be paid on December 23rd to shareholders of record on December 12th.

The Talbot’s Inc. (NYSE: TLB) reported third-quarter earnings this morning and posted an adjusted EPS loss of -$0.22, compared with a consensus estimate of an EPS loss of -$0.16. Same-store sales fell by -4% in November. Talbot’s has closed 35 store locations so far this year and plans to close a total of 110 locations by the end of its 2013 fiscal year.

Costco’s same-store sales rose 7%, excluding gasoline and currency effects. Including gasoline, sales were up 9%. Analysts were expecting a rise of 6.5%.

Target posted a same-store sales gain of 1.8% in November, but analysts were looking for a gain of 2.8%. The company’s CEO said that he expects December to offer a “competitive and promotional environment as consumers continue to focus on value.”

Macy’s same-store sales rose 4.8% last month, and total sales were up 5.3%. The consensus estimate for same-store sales was an increase of 4.1%.

Dillard’s posted a same-store sales jump of 3%, in-line with the average estimate.

Nordstrom reported November same-store sales rose 5.6%, compared with an average analyst estimate of 5%. Total sales rose nearly 12% in November.

Kohl’s reported that November same-store sales fell -6.2%, while analysts were expecting a 2% increase. The CEO called the results “disappointing,” and said that the company expects to benefit from customers seeking value during the remainder of the holiday shopping season.

Gap same-store sales fell by -5%, more than the analysts’ expectation of a -4.3% decline. The company’s CEO expects December to “to remain fiercely competitive and highly promotional.”

Ross posted a same-store sales increase of 5% in November, better than the 3.7% that analysts were expecting. The company said it expects a 3%-4% increase in December as well.

Penney’s same-store sales fell -2% in November, compared with a -1.6% decline expected by the analysts. Total sales also fell by nearly -6% in the month.

TJX reported same-store sales growth of 4%, in-line with the average estimate. The company’s CEO said that the store would have performed better but for the warmer weather which put off winter clothes buying.

Lululemon reported third-quarter earnings today, noting that same-store sales jumped 16% in the quarter. Shares are down more than -11% in the first half-hour of trading this morning. Here’s our coverage of the company’s earnings report.

Stage Stores reported same-store sales rose 2.3%, compared with an estimate for a flat month. Total sales rose 4.3%, and the company’s CEO said that the final week of the month was “very strong.”

Pier One released third quarter sales figures today, and same-store sales for the quarter ending November 27th rose 7%. The company said quarterly EPS would be $0.20-$0.21, compared with the consensus EPS estimate of $0.18. Same-store sales for the holiday weekend were up 10% over last year.

Paul Ausick

But brick-and-mortar retailers are getting some help from an unexpected quarter this season. Customers are using mobile devices — smartphones mostly, but some tablets as well — to compare prices right on the sales floor. A few stores are equipping salespeople with mobile devices of their own in order to check availability and price as well as competitive offers. A retailer that can meet or beat a competitor’s price on the spot might capture a sale that otherwise would have been lost. It is indeed a brave new world of retailing out there.

We’re taking a look at seven retailers today: Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), and Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY).

All data from Yahoo! Finance, with current prices gathered at around noon today.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) has a median price target of $89.00 from 21 brokers. The current share price is $81.99, for a potential upside of $7.01, or 8.6%. The company pays a dividend yield of 1.2% and the forward P/E is 18.49. Costco has performed at or above expectations for a while now, and shares are pretty fully valued. The target price is above the 52-week high, which indicates that analysts are expecting the company to continue performing well, but Costco’s share price has risen just 1% since mid-October and its target price was raised less than 1%.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) has a median target price of $62.50 from 18 brokers. The current share price is $56.96, for a potential upside of $5.54, or 9.7%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2.6%, and its forward P/E is 11.57. Walmart’s most recent quarter included some growth in US sales, which is something that has been missing for a while now. The company has put up a new 52-week high since mid-October, its share price has risen 3%, and its target price was raised by nearly 6% in the same time period. That combination would indicate that investors and analysts like what they see — and expect more of the same.

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) has a median target price of $60.00 from 21 brokers. The current share price is $52.78, for a potential upside of $7.22, or 13.7%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2.3% and its forward P/E is 12.03. Target’s target price has risen about 2.6% since mid-October and its share price has gained 6% in the same period. Unlike either Costco or Walmart, the company’s target price is still below its 52-week high.

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) has a median target price of $36.00 from 17 brokers. The current share price is $30.79, for a potential upside of $5.21, or 16.9%. The company pays a dividend yield of 1.3% and its forward P/E is 9.7. Macy’s target price has risen about 2.9% since mid-October and its share price is up about 6% in the same period. Macy’s has also posted a new 52-week in the last five weeks, and the target price is still about 10% above that new high. Macy’s doubled EPS expectations in its most recent quarter, although gross margins fell -0.6%. The company’s high-end Bloomingdale’s stores should give it a boost through the holiday shopping season due to a significant expected increase in sales this year.

Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) has a median price target of $54.00 from 20 brokers. The current share price is $46.17, for a potential upside of $7.83, or 17%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2% and its forward P/E is 12.79. The company’s target price was raised nearly 2% since mid-October, but the share price today is about -7% lower than it was then. The company has posted a new 52-week high of $53.35 since mid-October, but is trading some -13% below that number today. Nordstrom missed sales estimates in the third quarter, although EPS was in-line. With other retailers looking more attractive, Nordstrom’s shortcomings are magnified.

Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) has a median price target of $62.00 from 19 brokers. The current share price is $54.42, for a potential upside of $7.58, or 13.9%. The company pays a dividend yield of 1.8% and its forward P/E is 10.33. Of the companies in this group, Kohl’s is the only one to have had its price target lowered. The drop was -11%, and still nearly 6.5% above the stock’s 52-week high. Kohl’s beat estimates for its third quarter and bumped its forecast numbers for the fourth quarter and the full year. Competition has got to be the reason for the lowered targets and the declining stock price.

Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) has a median target price of $28.00 from 18 brokers. The current share price is $26.35, for a potential upside of $1.65, or 6.3%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2.4%, and its forward P/E is 6.72. Best Buy’s target price has been lifted by about 3.7% since mid-October. The share price is also about 3% higher, but the stock is so far from its 52-week high of $45.63 that this is a case of being so far down that everything looks like up.

Surprisingly, perhaps, of the seven stocks in this group Walmart appears to offer the best chance of realizing the implied upside in its share price. A lot depends on the company’s ability to increase traffic in its US stores, and to make sure those customers buy something.

Paul Ausick

The earnings previews are as follows: priceline.com Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN); A123 Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: AONE); Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI); Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS); Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM); Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO); Computer Sciences Corp. (NYSE: CSC); General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM); Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR); Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M); Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW); Molycorp Inc. (NYSE: MCP); Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN); NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA); and Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS).  Earnings estimates are from Thomson Reuters.

For each day of the week we have also added in the key economic events to watch for as well.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7

priceline.com Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN) is expected to report $9.30 EPS and $1.42 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $5.14 EPS and $996.75 million in revenues.

10:00 AM EST Employment Trends Index (October)

3:00 PM EST Consumer Credit (September)

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 8

A123 Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: AONE) is expected to report -$0.38 EPS and $66.3 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are -$0.35 EPS and $84.2 million in revenues.

Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) is expected to report $0.02 EPS and $558.4 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.53 EPS and $2.1 billion in revenues.

Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS) is expected to report $0.78 EPS and $260.8 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.66 EPS and $247.58 million in revenues.

Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is expected to report $0.41 EPS and $52 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.03 EPS and $66.47 billion in revenues. As a reminder, this will originally be in Yen and the Yen has been at record highs and it could impact the figures.

7:30 AM EST NFIB Small Business Sentiment (October)

4:30 PM EST API Weekly Oil Inventories

Some stores that will, though, are reporting October same-store sales today, including Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Limited Brands, Inc. (NYSE: LTD), American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE: AEO), Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ), The Buckle, Inc. (NYSE: BKE), and Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA).

Costco reported an October same-store sales jump of 9%, and a total sales increase of 11%. For the first two months of its current quarter, Costco same-store sales have risen 10% and total sales are up 13%. In September, the company saw a same-store sales jump of 12%, indicating that October sales were, in fact, a bit slower. Analysts were expecting October sales to rise 9.2%.

Target’s same-store sales rose 3.3% in the month, nearly double the 1.7% increase the company posted in October 2010. That probably won’t be good enough, as analysts were expecting a rise of 4.2%.

Macy’s posted a 2.2% gain in October same-store sales, considerably below expectations of 3.6%. The company reports third-quarter earnings next week and said that it expects quarterly sales to rise 4%-4.5%, within its previous guidance.

Nordstrom posted a same-store sales gain in October of 5.4%, which did not meet analysts’ expectation of a 6.4% boost. The company reports third-quarter earnings next week, and is expected to post EPS of $0.58 on revenue of $2.36 billion.

J.C. Penney was expected to post a 1% gain in October same-store sales. Instead the company put up a -2.6% decline. Shares are down nearly -3% in the pre-market following the announcement.

Kohl’s reported a same-store sales jump of 3.9%, better than the expected 3.7%. The company also noted that it expected third-quarter EPS to be at the high end of previous guidance of $0./73-$0.79. The consensus analyst EPS estimate is $0.78.

Limited reported same-store sales up 6% in October, compared with an 11% rise in September. Analysts had been looking for a 6.2% rise in October sales. Despite the slight miss, the company raised its EPS guidance from $0.17-$0.22 to $0.22-$0-.24 for its third fiscal quarter, which ended in October. Limited reports third-quarter earnings on November 16th, and the consensus EPS estimate was $0.24, even before the company raised guidance.

American Eagle Outfitters reported third-quarter sales after markets closed yesterday. Same-store sales for the quarter rose 5%, compared with a rise of just 1% in the same period a year ago. Including the company’s online store, same-store sales rose 7% in the quarter. The company also narrowed its EPS guidance from a $0.22-$0.27 to $0.26-$0.27, well above the consensus estimate of $0.23. American Eagle will report third-quarter earnings on November 30th.

Zumiez reported same-store sales increased 3.3% in October and 6% for the quarter ended in October. For the month, analyst’s were expecting an increase of 2.8% in same-store sales. The company raised EPS guidance last month, and the consensus estimate is now $0.42.

The Buckle reported a same-store sales gain of 8.7% in October, and for the quarter, same-store sales are up 9.1%. The company smashed the Thomson Reuters estimate of a 6.3% October gain.

Wet Seal saw its sales in October drop -9.7%, distressingly far below the estimated drop of -1%. The company also lowered third-quarter EPS guidance from $0.05-$0.06 to $0.04. Shares are down more than -7% in the pre-market.

Paul Ausick

A couple of weeks ago we looked at implied share price gains at several retailers, and today we’ll take a more focused look at mall anchor stores. Three retailers from our previous survey are included: Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M); Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN); and Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS). We’ve added J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS), and Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD).

In just two weeks, the target prices for Macy’s, Nordstrom’s, and Kohl’s have all changed. Macy’s and Kohl’s have had their targets reduced, while Nordstrom’s has risen. The likely reason is for the better outlook for higher-end retailers like Nordstrom. Macy’s Bloomingdale’s stores are expected to do better as well during the holiday season, but the impact on Macy’s overall revenues and earnings isn’t as decisive.

Saks, Dillard’s, Penney’s, and Sears have all broken through the most recent target prices posted at Yahoo! Finance. Either analysts have stopped caring or the shares are over-achievers, at least for the time being.

All data from Yahoo! Finance. Current share price info gathered just before noon today.

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) has a median target price of $34.00 from 13 brokers. Shares are trading today at $31.81, for an implied gain of $2.19, or 7%. Macy’s forward P/E is 10.45 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.3%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $21.69-$31.35, and at today’s price that’s about 46% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and just 2% below the 52-week high. Macy’s has forecast total revenue growth of 4.5% for the year, with growth at its Bloomingdale’s stores up 7%. That’s not as healthy as it sounds, though, because total sales were up more than 6% year-to-date through September, indicating that holiday sales growth won’t be as robust as the rest of the year.

Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) has a median target price of $54.00 from 20 brokers. Shares are trading today at $51.52, for an implied gain of $2.48, or 5%. Nordstrom’s forward P/E is 14.36 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.8%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $37.28-$53.35, and at today’s price that’s about 38% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and just 3% below the 52-week high. Nordstrom’s shares posted a new 52-week high earlier this week and is well within reach of another if October sales come in substantially higher than expected. The company’s position as a high-end retailer should attract more holiday traffic and more sales.

Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) has a median target price of $61.50 from 18 brokers. Shares are trading today at $53.71, for an implied gain of $7.79, or 14.5%. Kohl’s forward P/E is 10.48 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.9%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $42.14-$58.00, and at today’s price that’s about 27% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 7% below the 52-week high. Kohl’s shares are up more than $3 since our last look at the company just two weeks ago. The company has added a total of 38 new stores since January, and that ought to drive nicely higher revenue. Kohl’s is also upping its seasonal hiring by 5% over last year, adding 40,000 temporary workers for this holiday season.

J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP) has a median target price of $28.00 from 11 brokers. Shares are trading today at $33.18, nearly 16% above the target price. Penney’s forward P/E is 4.37 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2.4%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $23.44-$41.00, and at today’s price that’s about 42% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 19% below the 52-week high. Penney’s has sold off another 15 of its outlet stores as it continues on a path to close all of them by the end of next year. The company also recently acquired the Liz Claiborne brand and announced a $900 million share buyback. Even though the share price has broken through the median target price, it is still well short of its 52-week high.

Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) has a median target price of $11.00 from 9 brokers. Shares are trading today at $11.15, about 1.4% above the target price. Saks’ forward P/E is 22.32 and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $7.67-$12.97, and at today’s price that’s about 45% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 14% below the 52-week high. Saks is on track to double its full-year EPS this year, from $0.19 last year to $0.39 this year. Like Nordstrom’s, Saks is a higher-end player and those customers are expected to spend more this holiday season. Shares are down more than -5% today, though, on no news.

Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS) has a median target price of $52.50 from just 2 brokers. Shares are trading today at $52.52, fractionally above the target price. Dillard’s forward P/E is 11.84 and the company pays a dividend yield of 0.4%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $25.31-$61.08, and at today’s price that’s about 108% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 14% below the 52-week high. Dillard’s stock price has doubled in the past 12 months, setting an all time high for the company in July. Analysts seem completely underwhelmed by the company’s performance. The outlook calls for continued growth through the holiday season. What’s not to like here?

Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) has a median target price of $44.00 from just 3 brokers. Shares are trading today at $79.40, nearly 45% above the target price. Sears’ forward P/E is negative and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $51.14-$94.79, and at today’s price that’s about 55% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 16% below the 52-week high. Sears has struck deals to sell Craftsman brand tools through Ace Hardware stores and Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) stores. The company suffers from a poor customer service reputation and low customer loyalty. Sears’ estimated EPS loss for the full fiscal year is now set at -$1.48, half a buck worse than expected just three months ago. Until the shares get closer to the 52-week high, no one is going to care much about target prices.

Paul Ausick

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) has a median target price of $88.50 from 22 brokers. In mid-afternoon trading today, the stock changed hands at $81.31, for an implied gain of $7.19, or 8.1%. Costco’s forward P/E is 18.37, and the company’s dividend yield is 1.2%, the lowest among these seven stocks. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $61.90-$86.34, and it’s trading today at about 31% above its 52-week low and 6% below its 52-week high. Costco has been expected to do well as shoppers strive to keep spending down, and the company has not disappointed. Same-stores sales growth in September came in 12%. The share price has grown by nearly 30% in the past year, far outpacing both Walmart and Target.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) has a median target price of $59.00 from 20 brokers. In mid-afternoon trading today, the stock traded at $55.28, for an implied gain of $3.72, or 6.3%. Walmart’s forward P/E is 11.92, and the company’s dividend yield is 2.6%, the highest among these seven stocks. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $48.31-$57.90, and it’s trading today at about 14% above its 52-week low and 5% below its 52-week high. Walmart said earlier this week that sales are on track to grow by 5%-7% for its 2013 fiscal year which ends in January. Analysts had been expecting growth of 4.7%. The retailing giant also noted that same-store sales growth has been positive in each of the past three months.

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) has a median target price of $58.50 from 22 brokers. In mid-afternoon trading today, the stock traded at $52.70, for an implied gain of $5.80, or 9.9%. Target’s forward P/E is 12.14, and the company’s dividend yield is 2.3%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $45.28-$60.97, and it’s trading today at about 16% above its 52-week low and 14% below its 52-week high. Recent troubles with the company’s web site led to the departure yesterday of the president of the division. Only about 2% of Target’s revenues come from its web site, and that more  than the outages was reason enough to replace the division’s leader.

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) has a median target price of $35.00 from 13 brokers. In mid-afternoon trading today, the stock traded at $29.05, for an implied gain of $5.95, or 17%. Macy’s forward P/E is 9.57, and the company’s dividend yield is1.4%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $21.69-$30.62, and it’s trading today at about 34% above its 52-week low and 5% below its 52-week high. Macy’s posted unexpectedly good same-store sales growth in September, and the company expects to post sales growth near 4.5% for the full fiscal year. The company’s Bloomingdale’s division gives it a solid player in the luxury retail sector that is expected to post a year-over-year gain this holiday season of around 7%.

Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE: JWN) has a median target price of $53.00 from 18 brokers. In mid-afternoon trading today, the stock traded at $49.80, for an implied gain of $3.20, or 6%. Nordstrom’s forward P/E is 13.92, and the company’s dividend yield is1.8%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $35.92-$52.15, and it’s trading today at about 39% above its 52-week low and 5% below its 52-week high. Nordstrom’s same-store sales growth in September more than doubled expectations. Investors have noticed, as the luxury retailer’s stock price is nearing its 52-week high, with is only $0.85 below its median target price.

Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) has a median target price of $70.00 from 16 brokers. In mid-afternoon trading today, the stock traded at $50.09, for an implied gain of $19.91, or 28.4%. Kohl’s forward P/E is 9.75, and the company’s dividend yield is 2.0%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $42.14-$58.00, and it’s trading today at about 19% above its 52-week low and 14% below its 52-week high. Kohl’s opened 30 new stores in 20 US states in the month of September and it now operates 38 more stores than it did at the end of last year. But the company also recently lowered fiscal year guidance, which has slowed its climb back from the 52-week low the stock set in early September.

Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) has a median target price of $27.00 from 19 brokers. In mid-afternoon trading today, the stock traded at $25.53, for an implied gain of $1.47, or 5.4%. Best Buy’s forward P/E is 7.1, and the company’s dividend yield is 2.5%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $21.79-$45.63, and it’s trading today at about 17% above its 52-week low and 44% below its 52-week high. At the end of September, short interest in Best Buy stood at 12.75% of its float and its days to cover ratio is about 5.4. The 52-week low was set just two weeks ago, but has recovered somewhat since then. Any idea that Best Buy’s shares will close the gap with its 52-week highs during the holiday shopping seasons is surely no more than wishful thinking.

Paul Ausick

It is easier for companies to release bad news when one of their large competitors has. Retail firms can say that Gap had to cut stores because the entire industry has trouble. Holiday sales are expected to be weak this year, up less than 3%. Many American clothing manufacturers overbuilt when the economy was strong four to seven years ago. Gap will fire hundreds of people. Why should every other retail firm not do the same now that the sector faces a new set of issues?

Gap’s position is reflected in its share price, which is down more than 20% in the past two years. That is much worse than Macy’s (NYSE: M), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) or even Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD), although none of these compete with Gap across all product lines. Other stores such as Aeropostale (NYSE: AOR) and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) have fared worse in the stock market. Between them, the two have 2,00o stores and almost certainly too much capacity.

The 2011 holiday season is predicted to be one of mediocre sales. That will be true for many chains. The laggards like Gap, however, already know they are in trouble, and have decided to try to downsize their way out of the problem.

Douglas A. McIntyre

High-end US retailers include Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), the Bloomingdale’s stores owned by Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Norstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL), and Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH). Same-store sales have been good at these retailers and the outlook for the third quarter for all has been very solid.

Tiffany doesn’t report monthly sales, but its second-quarter revenues were 24% higher year-over-year and same-store sales in the quarter rose 22%. Earnings rose 33% and the company posted adjusted EPS of $0.86, more than 20% higher than analysts expected. For the company’s fiscal year, which ends in January 2012, Tiffany expects a sales boost in the high-teens, a rise in operating margin of 1%, and an increase in EPS from a previously guided $3.45-$3.55 to $3.65-$3.75.

For Tiffany’s third quarter, analysts are expecting EPS of $0.60 on revenues of $806 million, rising to EPS of $1.64 on revenues of $1.27 billion in the fourth quarter. The third quarter revenue estimate is lower than the company’s second-quarter total. That is likely due to an expected drop in sales in emerging countries, particularly China, where growth in the sales of luxury goods is expected to fall as the country’s economy cools off.

Saks Fifth Avenue reported same-store sales growth of 9.3% in September and a two-month jump of 8.0%. For the year-to-date, Saks’ same-store sales are up 11.5%. For the current quarter, which ends this month, Saks is expected to post revenue of $698 million and EPS of $0.09. For its fourth quarter, expectations rise to EPS of $0.16 on revenue of $916 million.

Macy’s reported same-store sales rose 4.9% in September and said that sales for the third and fourth quarters would be at the high-end of guidance at 4%-4.5%. Analysts are forecasting that Macy’s third-quarter EPS will be  $0.16, rising to $1.66 in the fourth quarter. Revenue for the third quarter is forecast at $5.88 billion, rising to $8.6 billion in the fourth quarter.

Nordstrom’s same-store sales jumped 10.7% in September, more than double analysts’ expectations. Third-quarter revenue is expected to reach $2.34 billion with EPS of $0.57. In the fourth quarter, revenue is expected to rise to $3.1 billion and EPS is forecast at $1.11.

Ralph Lauren does not report monthly sales. The company’s revenues are nearly equally split between its retail stores and its wholesale and licensing businesses. For the third quarter, analysts are expecting EPS of $2.23 on revenue of $1.84 billion. For the fourth quarter, EPS is expected to reach $1.74 on revenue of $1.77 billion. Compared with the same periods a year ago, third-quarter EPS is expected to rise nearly 7%, while fourth-quarter EPS is expected to rise by just over 1%.

Coach reported fiscal year 2011 numbers in August, including a jump in same-store sales of 10.6% for the year. For its first fiscal quarter of 2012, the company is expected to post EPS of $0.70 on revenue of $1.02 billion. For the second quarter, ending in December, EPS is expected to reach $1.14 on sales of $1.42 billion.

According to a recent survey, consumers with discretionary incomes above $250,000 plan to spend about 7% more during this year’s holiday season. [http://www.jckonline.com/2011/10/10/only-richest-consumers-spending-more-this-holiday] Those with incomes between $100,000 and $250,000, however, are expecting to spend about 17% less. For those with incomes below $100,000, spending will fall by 28%.

Those with discretionary incomes above $100,000 who say they plan to spend less this year are not worried about the economy. They claim that they already have too much stuff.

At the other end of the spectrum, an indicator of expectations at the lower end of the income distribution is the number of containers arriving at US ports. The Port of Long Beach is expecting a 15% drop year-over-year from last September, and the number of containers coming into New York-New Jersey is only flat with last year.

Jewelry and high-end handbags don’t make up those shipments, but goods headed to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) do. That pretty well sums up the state of the US economy and this year’s outlook for holiday sales.

Paul Ausick

We have September same-store sales from Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT, Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP), Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Stage Stores Inc. (NYSE: SSI), Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ), and The Buckle, Inc. (NYSE: BKE).

Target reported September same-store sales up 5.3%, and total sales up 6.5% from September 2010. Analysts were expecting growth of 3.9%. For the year-to-date, same-store sales at Target are up 3.4% year-over-year, compared with a 2.1% year-to-date rise in 2010 over 2009.

Macy’s posted a jump of 4.9% in September same-store sales, and an overall increase of 5.3%. Analysts were expecting a same-store sales increase of 4.4%. The company’s CEO is buoyant, ” We are feeling quite confident that we will continue to gain market share as we head toward the holiday selling season.” Year-to-date, same-store sales are up 5.6% and total sales are up 6.1%. Macy’s also said it expects both third- and fourth-quarter sales to be at the high end of the 4%-4.5% guidance the company has already issued.

Nordstrom reported a jump of 10.7% in September same-store sales and a total sales increase of 16.3%. Analysts had been expecting a same-store increase of 5.2%

J.C. Penney was among those that missed estimates. The company reported that same-store sales in September were down -0.6% and total sales were off an even worse -3.6%. Analysts had been expecting a same-store increase of 0.6% for the month. The store noted that sales of children’s apparel were among its better performing divisions, no surprise given the back-to-school shopping season.

Dillard’s posted a 4% rise in same-store sales for September, and a total sales increase of 3%. Analysts had been expecting a same-store boost of 3.3%. On a regional basis, the store said that sales were at the average company trend for the midwest, slightly below trend in the east, and below trend for the west. That doesn’t sound like upbeat forecast for the holiday season.

Limited stores posted an 11% jump in September same-store sales, more than double the expected rise of 4.6%. Total sales for the month rose 11% as well, and year-to-date sales are up nearly 12%.

Gap was another store that recorded a drop in same-store sales. The decrease came in a -4%, worse than expectations of -3.8%. International sales were hit the hardest, down -13% year-over-year.

Stage Stores also showed a decline in September same-store sales. The drop totaled -0.7% versus an expected gain of 0.3%.

Zumiez blasted through expectations of a 3.2% increase in same-store sales, posting a gain of 10.1%. The company raised its guidance for third-quarter sales and now expects EPS to rise from $0.37-$0.39 to $0.40-$0.41.

The Buckle posted a September same-store sales gain of 10.3%, far better than expectations of 3.8%. Total sales rose 13% year-over-year, and year-to-date same-store sales are up 8.7%.

The only retailer expected to see a double-digit rise in same-store sales for the month was Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), and it didn’t disappoint, posting a 12% gain. But Nordstrom, Limited, Zumiez, and Buckle were all big positive surprises with their double-digit sales growth. J.C. Penney, Gap, and Stage Stores continue to struggle.

If there’s a signal here for the coming holiday season, it’s that maybe the US economy isn’t as bad as all the other signals indicate. Or it could be that consumers spent money on needed school clothes and supplies, but are not going to be such free spenders later this year.

Paul Ausick