Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) had a change forced on it. Whether Scott Thompson, who was chief executive for four months, would have done well as a new leader of a troubled company will never be known. There is at least a chance he might have succeeded, if the scandal about his resume had not occurred. The board of Yahoo! did not get the opportunity to evaluate his tenure because he had none.

Two examples of CEOs who have been hired and supported by their boards despite very poor results are Ron Johnson of JCPenney (NYSE: JCP) and Stephen Elop of Nokia (NYSE: NOK). Elop has run the large handset company since September 2010. Johnson has only run Penney for a little longer than a quarter.

Elop followed Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo as chief executive. Kallasvuo was blamed because he could not transform Nokia into a successful manufacturer of smartphones. He may have stayed with the Symbian operating system, which lost popularity as Google’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android and Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone gained market share. Elop, the Nokia board reasoned, could rely on his years as a the head of Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) business division, although the link between that job and being the head of a handset company is difficult to understand.

Johnson’s promise as a turnaround CEO for JCPenney at least had a foundation in the success he had in his former job as head of Apple’s retail division, although some critics believe that Apple would have done well in retail no matter who was in charge. The demand for Apple products assured that. But JCPenney had been nearly ruined by former CEO and chairman Myron E. Ullman III. His strategy to make the retailer a better competitor to companies such as Macy’s (NYSE: M) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) did not advance JCPenney. The company’s board gambled that Johnson could do better.

Elop made one bet on a turnaround of Nokia, and it may have been his best and only chance. He tethered his company’s success to that of Microsoft and its troubled Windows Mobile OS. At least Microsoft had the cash and marketing muscle to press its software into the market, although those efforts have been failures in the past. Elop’s decision did almost nothing for Nokia, at least based on the results from the last year. Nokia’s revenue collapsed along with its market share in smartphones. Microsoft was no help at all. The Nokia board is left to decide whether Elop made the wrong decision, or whether Nokia is doomed along with other companies that have been crushed by Google and Apple: Sony Ericsson, LG and Motorola. Nokia’s future may have been set long before Elop joined. There is no reason to replace him. Who can do any better?

Johnson’s situation is another matter. He decided that JCPenney could only do well if he utterly and completely changed how the retailer brought in customers and turned them into buyers. He rebranded the retailer “JCP.” JCPenney now has three basic tiers of pricing, which are supposed to make it easier for shoppers to decide the value of products sold by the company. The results of the most recently reported quarter show the strategy has not paid off. JCPenney’s same-store sales fell an astonishing 20% and online sales dropped more than 27%. If the results for the current quarter are similar, it will be clear that Johnson’s plan has failed, or that JCPenney has been a failure for some time. The board will have to face the fact that it picked the wrong candidate or that JCPenney cannot survive in its current form in competition with several other larger retailers and e-commerce firms led by Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN). As with Nokia, the battle may have been lost long before the new CEO took up the reins.

The boards of Nokia and JCPenney may as well be passive as their new CEOs preside over companies that continue to fall apart. Neither had any chance of succeeding no matter who was put in charge.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) reported earnings earlier this week and beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines. The company’s stock still got beaten down on a weak forecast, and that is what happened to both Nordstrom and Kohl’s as well. Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) reports next Wednesday and the consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.18 on revenues of $764.4 million. J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) also reports next Wednesday and is expected to post an EPS loss of -$0.10 on revenues of $3.48 billion.

A beat, though, doesn’t look like it will mean much. What matters now to investors is guidance. Macy’s guided full-year EPS below the consensus estimate and got whacked. Kohl’s guided second-quarter EPS to $0.96-$1.02, below the consensus estimate of $1.11. Nordstrom reiterated its full-year EPS guidance at $3.30-$3.45, below the consensus estimate of $3.48. That’s just not good enough. Dillard’s did the smart thing and did not offer any information on guidance.

Kohl’s shares are down -0.4% just before noon today, at $48.47 in a 52-week range of $42.14-$57.39. Nordstrom’s shares are down -2.8% at $52.02 in a 52-week range of $37.28-$57.75.

Dillard’s shares are up 8.3% at $71.70, after posting a new 52-week high of $71.97 earlier this morning. The previous range was $38.99-$67.22. Dillard’s same-store sales report for May could reinforce the company’s new growth pattern — or turn it south again. Dillard’s offered no hints, so all’s well today.

Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 97 points to 12,835.44 (-0.75%), the NASDAQ fell more than11 points (-0.39%) to 2,934.71, and the S&P 500 fell 0.67% or more than 9 points to 1,354.61.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) raised to ‘buy’ at Goldman Sachs; ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) resumed as ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse; The Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) raised to ‘buy’ at Argus; Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) started as ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; and Demand Media Inc. (NYSE: DMD) raised to ‘buy’ at Citigroup.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: AOL Inc. (NYSE: AOL) is up 3.8% at $26.55; Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) is down -2.2% at $82.69 (more coverage here); Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc. (NYSE: DTG) is up 0.2% at $80.68; Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) is down -3.6% at $38.07 (more coverage here); Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) is down -0.2% at $13.96; Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is up 3.1% at $80.58; and SodaStream International Ltd. (NASDAQ: SODA) is up 28% at $37.35.

On Wednesday we are scheduled to get earnings from AMC Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: AMCX), ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), Express Scripts Holding Co. (NASDAQ: ESRX), Molycorp Inc. (NYSE: MCP); Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN); Nuance Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: NUAN); Harvest Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: HNR); Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS); and Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Cost Plus Inc. (NASDAQ: CPWM) is up 21.9% at $21.92 after posting a new 52-week high earlier today. The company is being acquired by Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) for $495 million.

Amyris Inc. (NASDAQ: AMRS) is down -21.7% at $1.98 after posting a new 52-week low of $1.89 earlier today. The biofuels and biotech company posted much higher-than-expected shortfalls in both EPS and revenues.

Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) is up 10.1% at $8.37. The coal miner had no news today, but investors are piling in at a very low price. Volume today topped 25 million shares, more than double Arch’s daily average.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Minneapolis Fed President Naryana Kocherlakota are giving speeches. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – International trade report
• 8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
• 1:00 p.m. – 30-year note auction
• 2:00 p.m. – Treasury budget
• 4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply

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Paul Ausick

The company leads off earnings seasons for a number of big department stores, all of which will be announcing results in the next couple of weeks. Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) reports earnings tomorrow and is expected to post EPS of $0.75 on revenue of $2.52 billion. Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) also reports tomorrow, and the consensus estimate for EPS is $0.61 and for revenue the estimate is $4.25 billion. Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) reports next Wednesday and the consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.18 on revenues of $764.4 million. J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) also reports next Wednesday and is expected to post an EPS loss of -$0.10 on revenues of $3.48 billion. Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS) has not yet scheduled its announcement, but the estimates call for EPS of $1.67 on revenue of $1.53 billion.

Macy’s grew EPS by 43%, from $0.30 a year ago to $0.43 in the first quarter of 2012. Sales rose 4.4% year-over-year, from $5.89 billion to $6.15 billion. The consensus estimates called for EPS of $0.40 on revenue of $6.13 billion.

Where Macy’s failed to impress was its outlook for full-year EPS. The company reiterated guidance of $3.25-$3.30. The consensus estimate had been $3.41. Same-store sales in April were also a weight, rising just 1.2%, well below the consensus estimate for 1.9% growth.

Macy’s cost of sales rose slightly and margins fell slightly, from 39.1% to 38.8%. Strong sales in March due to an early Easter and warm weather did not flow into April as consumers grew more cautious about purchases.

The company’s shares are down -4.3% at $37.70 in pre-market trading this morning, within a 52-week range of $22.66-$42.17.

Paul Ausick

The top earnings we are looking at are as follows: Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN); Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA); Rackspace Hosting Inc. (NYSE: RAX); The Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS); Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO); Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M); Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN); and Nuance Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: NUAN).

We have taken estimates and price targets from Thomson Reuters consensus estimates and have added in color on each.

The shape of the biotech sector is likely to hinge based on the earnings of Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN).  VIVUS Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) also reports on Monday but Dendreon has many things that biotech investors want: a product on the market, a controversial story, a stock way off its post-approval highs, a history of soft sales with the promise of better times ahead, and a rather large short interest.  This is a sales story rather than an earnings story: Thomson Reuters expects sales of $81.2 million for the last quarter, $90.1 million for the quarter ahead (the quarter we are in now, and $378.3 million in 2012.  These sales are all from Provenge for late-stage prostate cancer.  This is the one that will set the tone for biotech during the week and this stock is back down closer to $11 after having popped to $15 from $8 earlier this year.

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA) is no longer the leading game company for investors, but it is one of the largest game makers in the world.  Its earnings are also ahead of the larger video game giant Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) which reports later in the week.  This is also considered one of the throw-away quarters of the video game sector.  Thomson Reuters expects E.A. to report $0.17 EPS on $959.56 million in sales, with next quarter expected to be -$0.32 EPS on $580.9 million in sales.  This will mark the year-end report and the growth in the year ahead is expected to go to $1.13 EPS from $0.84 EPS expected and sales are expected to grow to $4.5 billion from $4.17 billion expected.

For starters, an earlier Easter by 16 days pushed sales out of April into March.  Weak private sector employment data is not helping.  A very warm February and March likely acted as a pull-forward in sales away from April, and a later Mother’s Day most likely pushed some April sales out into May.  Another issue is the elevated but abating price of gasoline for consumers.  The gain of 8.7% in April 2011 is also making further gains more difficult by comparison.

The Monthly Retail Metrics economic diffusion index has rolled over and is now more negative data points than positive for the first time in months.  Here are some of the expected double-digit winners:

In large-format upscale apparel retail stores it is Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) that is expected to have the highest marks with same-store sales gains of 6.2%.  Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) is expected to be up 5.6%

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) may not be considered a ‘fashion’ retailer based upon its yoga and exercise theme, but the expectation is for gains of 21.8% for April same-store sales.

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: KORS) sells through licensing but also has its own network of stores.  Retail Metrics sees it posting a massive 34.4% in same-store sales gains.

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is already seeing its shares urge by over 11% to $19.99 after it raised guidance based upon sales gains of 17% for stores open at least a year if you include the AEO Direct site.

Keep in mind that many retail outlets have seen two years or more of solid sales gains and that many of these stocks have risen excessively.  It might be getting easier to argue that the retail sector shares have risen enough that any bad news is not likely to be received too well by investors.

JON C. OGG

Many factors are cited: an earlier Easter holiday by 16 days this year, very favorable weather conditions, improving employment, well received colorful spring merchandise assortments, rising consumer confidence, and pent up demand.

While estimates have been moving higher, Retail Metrics expects that retailers should surprise on the upside for a fourth consecutive month.  It does warn, however, that the gains in March may come at the expense of April and it also noted that retailers face a very steep 8.7% comparison with April 2011 and that makes for an uphill battle.

The report noted that (after falling over the weekend) department store forecasts turned up and now stand at 4.2%.  Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M), Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS), and Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) all experienced 20 basis point upward moves to their consensus estimates.  Other gains in expectations were as follows: The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) with a 130 basis point rise; Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) with a full 100 basis point rise; Zumiez, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) with a 60 basis point rise; and eve Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) showing a 40 basis point rise.

Buckle Inc. (NYSE: BKE) is expected to be one of the surprise reduced forecasts by 70 basis points, but its stock is with 2% of a 52-week high.  Another large reduction was an 80 basis point tempering of expectations from the Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA) and its stock has been very weak in the last year.

We should be getting most of the same-store sales reports on Wednesday and Thursday of this week ahead of the Easter weekend.

JON C. OGG

Alcatel-Lucent S.A. (NYSE: ALU) Maintained Sell with $2.00 target at S&P.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) Cut to Hold at Argus.

ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas.

AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) Cut to Neutral at Baird.

Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: CY) Raised to Buy at Lazard (late Wednesday call).

Delek US Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DK) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; named as value stock of the day at Zacks.

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX) Reiterated Buy and raised target from $65 to $67 at BofA/ML.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Janus Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE: JNS) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) Reiterated Buy and raised target from $60 to $65 at BofA/ML.

Logitech International (NASDAQ: LOGI) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) Cut to Neutral at Baird.

The Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) Started as Hold at ThinkEquity.

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Some highlights:

• Costco sales rose 8%, but shares are flat shortly before noon.
• Macy’s posted a same-store sales jump of 4.6%, and the company’s shares hit a 52-week high of $38.38.
• TJX’s sales rose 9% and the shares posted a new 52-week high of $37.07.
• Ross Stores’ sales jumped 9% as well, and the company’s stock put up a new 52-week high of $54.27.
• Buckle’s same-store sales rose a whopping 14.8%, and the shares posted a new 52-week high of $48.43.
• Zumiez’s sales rose 14.2% in February and the stock put up a new 52-week high of $33.84.

The biggest change came from Gap Stores. The company posted a same-store sales jump of 4%, when analysts were expecting a shortfall of -1.4%. Shares posted a new 52-week high of $26.00, more than $2/share above the previous high.

Kohl’s and Wet Seal were the only stores on this list to show sales dips, but Wet Seal’s dip was only half what had been expected. Kohl’s was expected to break even, but same-store sales fell -0.8%.

Paul Ausick

The Retail Metrics analysis has lifted expectations for Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT), Limited Brands, Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), and even Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ).

The report said, “As noted in previous reports, several catalysts gave rise to solid traffic and conversion levels throughout the month.  Merchandise and food sales were strong around Super Bowl weekend at the beginning of the month.  Valentine’s Day related gift selling looked to be quite good with the National Retail Federation calling for a high-single digit increase in sales.”

JON C. OGG