The company was present today for the opening bell.  Speaking of which, why do companies still want the four-letter stock tickers if they are moving to The Big Board?  It is just one more issue that can confuse retail investors (and some institutional investors).

At issue is that many quote systems and analytic systems take days or even weeks to properly transfer over.  Fundamentally, this changes nothing about the company.  It still has a high P/E ratio and it can still be a volatile stock.  Some companies believe that this takes the day traders out of their shares and puts the power of control more into the hands of specialists (or dedicated market makers).  We have seen arguments for and against this throughout time.

Shares are up 0.7% at $9.62 this morning with almost 200,000 shares traded in the first hour.  The DJIA is up 0.99% and the NASDAQ is up 1.01%.

As of 10:30 AM EST TheKnot.com’s homepage still reflected the KNOT data unless you go to the investor relations site for an explanation about the move.

JON C. OGG

First and foremost, Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) tried to acquire the company but the $6 billion or so offer was said to undervalue the company and no deal was reached.  With recent values being put in the $20 to $25 billion, we just do not expect Google to stay hidden.

Travelzoo Inc. (NASDAQ: TZOO) may have been pounded this week as the stock went from over $100 to under $85.00 this week alone.  What has helped to drive shares before that was the growth of its LocalDeals unit. This was a $66.00 stock at the end of March.

The Knot, Inc. (NASDAQ: KNOT) may have been given a small William boost (or is it really a Kate Middleton boost?), but it has also been migrating for some time to more local deals.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) did a coupon offer of its own through LivingSocial, which it reportedly invested $175 million in December.  As large as Amazon is, there is no way in hell that Groupon was going to be allowed to not run into the beast of online retail.

Facebook has also jumped on the bandwagon here with deals in a limited city launch of local discounts through prepaid vouchers.  How this ultimately plays out is something we are not certain yet, but one thing is for sure… Those Facebook loyalists would let Mark Zuckerberg put a Facebook logo on their front doors if he’d think about offering it.  OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) is up over $110.00 again ahead of next week’s earnings and it has a deal with Facebook. 

ReachLocal, Inc. (NASDAQ: RLOC), a fairly recent IPO, saw its shares surge 30% at one point this week after earnings and after it reported a partnership with Google.  Google may have wanted it more for its four key international market presence, but it will be a partner in the search engine’s AdWords system.

Rediff.com India Ltd. (NASDAQ: REDF) has magically resurfaced after having been mostly forgotten by most investors.  The India website has seen its stock effectively triple in just the last 45 days.  The company’s announcement on April 26 that it was launching a “group deals service” in 40 Indian cities called “Rediff Deal Ho Jaye!” has driven shares further.  Last Friday this was a $11.25 stock, but now shares are up around $16.25 and its market cap is about $455 million.

Local.com (NASDAQ: LOCM) was given some attention in December when the Groupon deal was running shares.  It has since had an earnings warning and the shares are still under $5.00 now after having risen to over $6.00 in December.  Another winner at the time was SuperMedia Inc. (NASDAQ: SPMD), which has SuperYellowPages, had doubled at one point in the last weeks of 2010 to over $9.00 but its shares are back down close to $5.00 again.  Both of these were featured by many as “alternatives” that could grow in this space.

Even Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: WMT) has gotten into the game when it acquired Kosmix for social and mobile commerce initiatives. 

Before you think that Groupon is dead, it isn’t.  It still has loyalists and it is still going to grow whether we have some caution or not.  That doesn’t mean that its valuation will not come under fire.  It also does not mean that Groupon is automatically assured a successful life indefinitely. 

There is literally no barrier to entry for any company with enough reach to compete with Groupon.  Can Groupon claim that it invented coupons? Can it claim that it is the only social networking play out there?  Can Groupon even claim that it invented online coupons?  The answer is no.

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JON C. OGG

Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN) Cut to Sell at Kaufman Bros.
Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) Started as Market Outperform at JMP Securities.
Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW) Raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs.
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Cut to Neutral at Merriman Curhan Ford; Cut to Hold at ThinkEquity.
Infosys Technologies (NASDAQ: INFY) Raised to Buy at Kaufman Bros.
The Knot, Inc. (NASDAQ: KNOT) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Liz Claiborne Inc. (NYSE: LIZ) Raised to Buy at KeyBanc.
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
WebMD (NASDAQ: WBMD) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear about top analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPOs and secondary offerings, ongoing day trader and options trader alerts, stock and market rumors, Buffett and guru investor news, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG
FEBRUARY 19, 2010

Quantcast has estimates, that could be off, that Brides.com has fallen from over 640,000 users to under 400,000 users in the last six months.  But Quantcast also estimated — again that could be off — that TheKnot.com has risen from under 1.2 million monthly users to almost 1.5 million in the same period.  Alexa ranks Brides.com as being 3,773 by traffic ranking in the United States, while it ranks TheKnot.com as #941.

Shares of The Knot are up 2.3% at $10.89, and its 52-week trading range is $5.35 to $11.42.  With a $367 million market cap, as of the end of June The Knot had only $30 million in total liabilities and almost $115 million in cash and investments. Thomson Reuters expects that it will generate $107 million in 2009 revenues and $114 million in 2010 revenues.  The problem is that profits are still running very thin on expectations, so it appears to be extremely expensive on a forward earnings multiple analysis.  We will be checking into whether or not there are cross revenues here, but TheKnot.com likely just picked up an opportunity to gain more advertisers or a higher premium as the recovery takes shape.

The estimates vary wildly from source to source over the translation of online advertising revenues versus old world media revenues in print, radio, and TV.  Some have said that an old world ad spending $1.00 is worth $0.10 and some have noted far less than that.

JON C. OGG

In the second quarter, net income was $2.3 million down from $4.8 million in the same period last year. Revenue was flat at a little over $28 million. Deutsche Bank and Oppenheimer took a dim view of the numbers and said so.

A look at analysts’ estimates for Q3 shows that the low end of the range for EPS in a loss of $.03 on revenue of $24.9 million. The firm’s online advertising and sponsorship businesses could be badly hurt by the downturn in online marketing sales.

In last year’s Q3, The Knot had revenue of $25 million and made $.09 a share. A loss would be quite a comedown.

The CEO of The Knot, David Liu, made $810,000 last year, $367,000 in base salary. That base moved to $370,000. In exchange, he has presided over a company which has watched it stock drop from a 52-week high of $19.32 to $5.90. Nice work.

If the company comes in at the low end of estimates, it is a $4 stock.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Ann Talor (AMM) Cut to Market Perform at FBR

Bank of America (BAC) Cut to Neutral at UBS

FEMSA (FMX) Cut to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

Hansen Natural (HANS) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Home Inss & Hotels (HMIN) kept as Buy but Target Cut to $22.40 at Citigroup.
IBM (IBM) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Lexmark (LXK) Started as Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Murphy Oil (MUR) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Sin Microsystems (JAVA) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
3-D Systems (TDSC) Cut To Sell at Piper Kafray.
TheKnot (KNOT) Cut to Hold at Deutsche bank.
Wal-Mart (WMT) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.
Jon C. Ogg
August 8, 2008

Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: CCE) was down less than 1% at $21.48 in the last hour; prior 52-week range was $21.55 to $27.09. Who would have guessed that bottling Coke and other drinks would result in this. 

GeoEye, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEOY) suffering from geospatial imaging sector woes.  While this was well above the 52-week lows, it has been more volatile than plastique in a lightning storm, and shares went as low as $16.05 today; Prior range $17.00 to $37.37.

Hansen Natural Corp. (NASDAQ: HANS) shares fell another 5% to $28.50 in the last hour but shares were as low as $28.20.  This one is making the list more than just once now.  The short sellers that bet against this one probably feel like they are monsters in their own right.

iPass Inc. (NASDAQ: IPAS) fell sharply after earnings and subsequent downgrades.  Shares were down 16% at $2.15 in teh last hour; prior 52-week range was $2.43 to $5.69.  Selling wi-fi spots probably is going to be tough once WiMAX does really hit the U.S.  Looks like the only thing people are passing at iPass is gas.

The Knot Inc. (NASDAQ: KNOT) was down almost 15% at $9.93 last in the day after posting a 65% drop in earnings.  Maybe bridezillas are not doing research anymore or maybe they are just using wedding planners.  Either way, you know when times are tough people don’t go as extravagant on weddings.  Presumable that ad spending might be down too.

3D Systems Corp. (NASDAQ: TDSC) won "the daily fugly" award after its earnings report.  In the last hour shares were down almost 40% at $8.67; prior 52-week trading range was $11.51 to $26.50.   3-D is tough to explain to blind people.

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) seems counterintuitive with screaming oil prices, but its power costs and energy demands are costing more and more and it can’t pass the costs along.  Shares were at $44.70 at the end of the day and the prior 52-week trading range was $44.94 to $78.68.

Jon C. Ogg
May 9, 2008

• Angiotech Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ANPI) raised to Outperform at RBC Capital Markets.
• BP plc (NYSE: BP) raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
• CBS (NYSE: CBS) downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia; Raised to Hold at Citigroup.
• James River Coal (NYSE: JRCC) raised to Buy at UBS.
• MEMC Electronics (NYSE: WFR) downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• SAVVIS (NASDAQ: SVVS) downgraded to Hold at Jefferies and downgraded to Equal-Weight at Lehman.
• Smith & Nephew (NYSE: SNN) raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
• Sohu.com (NASDAQ: SOHU) downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer.
• The Knot, Inc. (NASDAQ: KNOT) raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
• Under Armour (NYSE: UA) downgraded to Hold at Citigroup.

Jon C. Ogg
April 30, 2008

• American Tower (NYSE: AMT), Crown Castle (NYSE: CCI), and SBA Communications (NASDAQ: SBAC) all initiated as BUY at Jefferies.
• Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) raised to Outperform at RBC Capital.
• BE Aerospace (NASDAQ: BEAV) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
• Gennesee & Wyoming (NYSE: GWR) raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.
• Hologic (NASDAQ: HOLX) started as Buy at Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey.
• Safeway (NYSE: SWY) raised to Neutral from Sell at UBS.
• The Knot (NASDAQ: KNOT) downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• The Medicines Co. (NASDAQ: MDCO) raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
• UBS (NYSE: UBS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
• ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK) raised to Outperform at Robert W. Baird.

Jon C. Ogg
February 14, 2008

• InfoUSA (NASDAQ:IUSA)… here’s what happens when your paid model gets Google-ized by free everything. $8.63 close versus $8.79 prior yearly low.
• Jones Soda (NASDAQ:JSDA)… indigestion took this down 3.3% to $6.60, although it managed in the last hour to get back above the prior $6.51 52-week close.  With a $32.60 high, this will still make most investors burp. We aren’t rushing out to include this in our "10 Stocks Under $10 Newsletter" just because it’s under $10.00 again, mainly on its triple-digit P/E ratio despite a severe sell-off.  Jim Cramer has been out of this name as a backer for quite some time, but he are some old comments from Cramer.
• The Knot (NASDAQ:KNOT) lower by 3.7% to $13.20, just under the $13.24 prior 52-week lows as American anti-family values are taking hold.  Maybe they could hedge the business with divorce.com.  All joking aside, keep your eyes on this one.  We had this as a possible buyout candidate from our "Small Cap Internet Watch List" but we noted that things had to get worse and stay worse before management would have to capitulate and agree to a buyout.
• Speedway Motor Sports (NYSE:TRK).. maybe NASCAR and stock car racing isn’t immune from a slower consumer, even if there was a big promotion in NYC this week. Closed $33.75, prior 52-week range was $33.80 to $41.68.  Maybe the U.S. needs more NASCAR moms and more soccer dads.  Paying $1 million to go on a car may be dwindling too, but who knows.
• Walgreen Co. (NYSE:WAG).. this was surprising with another 1.9% drop to $36.59, under the last year range of $37.06 to $49.10.  Apparently dropping those CVS plans over price might not be the right ticket.  At 18-times earnings we aren’t licking our chops yet.
• Zale Corp. (NYSE:ZLC)…. jewelry is tough in a slower economy, and you can’t sell your garage to buy that diamond tennis bracelet.  This was down in sympathy with Tiffany.  Zale closed down 2.7% to $17.89, under the 52-week range of $18.18 to $31.57.

Jon C. Ogg
November 30, 2007