24/7 Wall St. » KR

Valuation Reality Check In Whole Foods (WFM, KR, SWY)

Administrator — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 22:56:41 +0000

Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) may have posted a 33% gain to earnings and it may still have a lot of growth ahead of it. The reality is that the company is running into a valuation issue. Even if it gets traded like a luxury goods seller rather than a grocery store chain, the valuation argument has to start coming closer to home here.

The company beat earnings by $0.05 at $0.65 per share and revenues rose almost 13% to $3.39 billion versus Thomson Reuters estimates of $3.38 billion. Whole Foods even raised guidance for its Fiscal year of 2012 to a range of $2.28 to $2.32 earnings per share from a prior target of $2.21 to $2.26 and against a consensus target from Thomson Reuters of $2.27 EPS. It also raised revenue guidance for 2012 to a range of 13.5% to 15% and that looks mostly in-line with the expected figure of $11.6 billion expected.

Whole Foods is a great growth story, it is an incredibly well run organization, and it deserves a premium over traditional grocery stores which run on razor-thin margins. Whole Foods has far higher margins and its expansion of its own 365 private-label brand is likely going to help it capture even higher margins even though the products are generally priced lower than other organic and natural brand-label foods.

So, everything is positive… except for our headline. The guidance is not exactly far higher than what was already expected. At the mid-point of its new earnings range, Whole Foods stock trades at a massive 33.9-times the fiscal September 2012 consensus estimate and it trades at 1.2-times expected revenues.

Compare Whole Foods forward 2012 valuations of 33.9-times earnings and 1.2-times sales to The Kroger Company (NYSE: KR) and Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY). Kroger trades at only 10.6-times earnings and only about 0.14-times sales; Safeway trades at 12-times expected earnings and only 0.17-times total sales.

The good news for the bulls is that Whole Foods has always been a premium stock. It is even easy to argue that Whole Foods will always trade at a premium to grocery chains. It has the whole lifestyle trade attached to it. Whole Foods is far more of a fun experience compared to most grocery stores, at least until the bill comes. Whole Foods is arguable the biggest luxury brand that there is.

The bad news is simple. Valuations at some point just have to give. At $77.93 and after the stock hit a new high of $78.31, how can it rise? The consensus target from analysts is $79.29 and even if that gets raised it can only rise so much. With a $13.99 billion market cap, it is worth roughly two-thirds of the combined values of Safeway and Whole Foods while it is expected to generate only about 8% of the combined sales of the two food giants.

A great company, at a price that just feels too high to justify on any traditional financial metrics. The stock can run up on news. It just looks too hot now under rational evaluations.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Earnings, Economy, Food, Luxury, Retail, Value Investing Tagged: KR, SWY, WFM

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (CHK, GOOG, KR, LNG, CCL, CREE, SCHW, FAST, GS, STT, CLWT, UEPS, COOL, KUTV, AAPL, MCD, NKE)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 21:08:22 +0000

Markets opened slightly lower in the US this morning, but picked up steam in the morning and continued to rise, if slowly, for the rest of the day. The tech sector showed the most strength, with semiconductor stocks rising sharply and pushing the NASDAQ Composite index up more than 1.4% about half an hour before the closing bell. Financial stocks also did well today, and the euro rose back above $1.28 following a report that the IMF wants to increase its lending capacity to around $885 billion. Crude is mixed today, with WTI up fractionally at $100.78/barrel and Brent down -0.65% at $110.81/barrel. Gold rose as well today to $1,658.90.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 97 points to 12,578.95 (0.78%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 42 points (1.53%) to 2,769.71, and the S&P 500 rose 1.11% or more than 14 points to 1,308.04.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) cut to ‘hold’ at Brean Murray; Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) cut to ‘market perform’ at Wells Fargo; The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) cut to ‘market perform’ at BMO Capital; Cheniere Energy Inc. (AMEX: LNG) started as ‘outperform’ with a $13.50 target price at Credit Suisse; and Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) maintained as ‘hold’ but estimates cut at Argus.

Earnings reports since markets closed yesterday have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) is up 4.3% at $24.33; The Charles Schwab Corp. (NYSE: SCHW) is down -1.3% at $12.00; Fastenal Co. (NASDAQ: FAST) is down -2.8% at $45.48; Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is up 7.5% at $105.03; and State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT) is down -7% at $39.72.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Euro Tech Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: CLWT) is up nearly 53% at $3.91. The Hong Kong-based company has announced an 11-for-2 reverse stock split.

Net 1 UEPS Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: UEPS) is up more than 33% at $8.96. The South African software maker has announced a 5-year deal with the government’s social security agency.

Majesco Entertainment Co. (NASDAQ: COOL) is down more than -27% at $2.17. The video game maker forecast higher sales and marketing costs in 2012.

Ku6 Media Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: KUTV) is down nearly -18% at $2.71. The Chinese online video company rose more than 150% yesterday on the announcement of deal with Google. Today’s fall is likely due to profit-taking.

We also noted 10 stocks that posted new all-time highs today. These include Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD), and Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE). See our coverage here.

Stay tuned for Thursday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – Consumer price index
8:30 a.m. – Housing starts
8:30 a.m. – Initial unemployment benefits claims
10:00 a.m. – Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas inventory report
11:00 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close, The Day Tagged: AAPL, CCL, CHK, CLWT, COOL, CREE, FAST, GOOG, GS, KR, KUTV, LNG, MCD, NKE, SCHW, STT, UEPS

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (CCL, CHK, LNG, CQP, CREE, EXPE, FTE, GOOG, JNS, KR, MGM, ODP, OMX, PVH, RL, TEF, TXT)

Administrator — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 13:28:25 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street brokerage and research firms this Wednesday morning.

Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) Maintained Hold but cut estimates at Argus.
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) Cut to Hold at Brean Murray.
Cheniere Energy Inc. (NYSE: LNG) Started as Outperform with $13.50 target at Credit Suisse
Cheniere Energy Partners, LP (NYSE: CQP) Started as Neutral with $20 target at Credit Suisse.
Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) maintained Buy with $33 target at Canaccord Genuity; Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity; Cut to Neutral at Ticonderoga.
Expedia, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) Started as Underweight at JPMorgan.
France Telecom S.A. (NYSE: FTE) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Janus Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE: JNS) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) Cut to Market Perform at BMO Capital.
MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Office Depot, Inc. (NYSE: ODP) Raised to Equal-weight at Barclays.
OfficeMax Inc. (NYSE: OMX) Raised to Equal-weight at Barclays.
PVH Corporation (NYSE: PVH) Started as Neutral with $72 target at Credit Suisse.
Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) Started as Outperform with $168 target at Credit Suisse.
Telefonica SA (NYSE: TEF) Cut to Sell at UBS.
Textron Inc. (NYSE: TXT) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: CCL, CHK, CQP, CREE, EXPE, FTE, GOOG, JNS, KR, LNG, MGM, ODP, OMX, PVH, RL, TEF, TXT

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (GOOG, IAG, ERTS, STX, ONXX, CRZO, GIL, BKS, LULU, ISLE, KR, TLB, PEIX, LAVA, CLWR, STNG, HOVNP)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 21:05:52 +0000

Equity markets opened slightly lower this morning, following yesterday’s big share price increases. For most of the day stocks traded slightly lower, although they have moved to a very slight gain in the final hour of trading. China’s purchasing managers index was weaker than expected, which is probably the reason for the slow start this morning, and then new US unemployment claims were higher than expected adding more pressure on prices. The dollar has traded weaker relative to the euro, but strengthened against the yen. Crude oil is trading down marginally at $100.18/barrel and gold is also down slightly at $1,743.870/ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 25 points to 12,020.48 (-0.21%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 6 points (0.22%) to 2,626.20, and the S&P 500 fell -0.19% or more than 2 points to 1,244.58.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) raised to ‘buy’ at Citigroup. Other ratings action included IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE: IAG) started as ‘outperform’ with a $25 price target at Credit Suisse; Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) raised from ‘neutral’ to ‘buy’ at Citigroup; Seagate Technology PLC (NYSE: STX) raised to ‘buy’ at Argus; Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ONXX) cut from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch; and Carrizo Oil & Gas (NASDAQ: CRZO) reiterated ‘buy’ with a new price target of $49 at Canaccord Genuity.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Gildan Activewear Inc. (NYSE: GIL) is down -30.8% at $16.53, after setting a new 52-week low of $16.52; Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) is down -16.9% at $14.50; Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) is down -4.8% at $47.34; Isle of Capri Casinos, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISLE) is down -8.5% at $4.51; The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) is up 1% at $23.41; and The Talbot’s Inc. (NYSE: TLB) is down -17.1% at $1.65, after posting a new 52-week low of $1.63. We have more details on Lululemon’s earnings and on the November sales reports from a number of retailers, including Talbot’s.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX) is up 26.7% at $1.33. The ethanol maker has regained compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements and has increased ownership of its four ethanol production plants to 27%.

Magma Design Automation Inc. (NASDAQ: LAVA) is up more than 25% at $7.16. The design automation firm has agreed to be acquired by Synopsys Inc. (NASDAQ: SNPS) for $7.35/share.

Clearwire Corp. (NASDAQ: CLWR) is up more than 17% at $2.09. The wireless broadband provider received a $1.6 billion investment from its majority owner Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) that will enable Clearwire to meet its $237 million debt payment. We have more details here.

Scorpio Tankers Inc. (NYSE: STNG) are down more than -20% at $5.31. The Monaco-based petroleum shipping company priced a secondary offering this morning at $5.50/share.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NASDAQ: HOVNP) is down more than -14% at $1.31. The homebuilder has been batted around for nearly a year now, and even improving news on construction spending can’t stop the slide.

Stay tuned for Friday. We have noted speeches due from Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. Here’s another noteworthy event scheduled for tomorrow (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – Non-farm payroll report

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: BKS, CLWR, CRZO, ERTS, GIL, GOOG, HOVNP, IAG, ISLE, KR, LAVA, LULU, ONXX, PEIX, STNG, STX, TLB

Expected Price Gains for Grocery Store Stocks (SWY, KR, WINN, WFM, SVU, TFM, RDK, WMK, WMT)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 18:05:57 +0000

Grocery stores and supermarkets get whipsawed by rising prices on food commodities, rising prices from food processing companies, and rising fuel prices on one hand and higher unemployment and stagnant wages on the other. If people didn’t need to eat, they probably wouldn’t.

About the only weapons the grocers have is selectively lowering prices and pushing their privately-labeled goods, which have a higher profit margin for the stores than the nationally-advertised brands. Stores have been unable, yet, to come up with a significant boost to their revenues and profits available from technology developments. The costs of implementing high-tech grocery shopping more than offsets any possible gains. It’s another problem grocers will have to find an answer to, along with rising costs, if they are going to grow.

We’ve looked today at a number of grocery store and supermarket stocks to try to determine where some hidden value may lie. The stores we’ve reviewed are Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY), The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR), Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: WINN), Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM), Supervalu Inc. (NYSE: SVU), The Fresh Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: TFM), Ruddick Corp. (NYSE: RDK), Weis Markets, Inc. (NYSE: WMK), and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT). We’ve included Walmart because it gets more than half its $100+ billion in revenues from grocery sales, making it the largest grocery seller among this group.

All data from Yahoo! Finance, and current prices were gathered at about noon today.

Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) has a median target price of $19.00 from 13 brokers. Shares are trading today at $19.28, about 1.5% above the target price. Safeway’s forward P/E is 10.37 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2.9%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $15.93-$25.43, and at today’s price that’s about 21% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 24% below the 52-week high. Safeway saw its average food basket price rise by 2.3% year-over-year in September, the same rate as Kroger and Supervalu. Sales of private label foods and gasoline gave the company a boost in the third quarter, but gross margins fell — never a good sign for a grocery. Look for a hike to the target price soon, now that Safeway has managed to bust through $19.

The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) has a median target price of $26.00 from 15 brokers. Shares are trading today at $22.83, for an implied gain of $3.17, or 14%. Kroger’s forward P/E is 10.57 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $20.53-$25.85, and at today’s price that’s about 11% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 12% below the 52-week high. Kroger is Walmart’s leading competitor in grocery sales, with about $82 billion in 2010. The company has made a conscious effort to keep prices low, and that has affected margins negatively. If the company can figure a way to get those margins up, the stock price has room to grow.

Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: WINN) has a median target price of $10.50 from 5 brokers. Shares are trading today at $6.57, for an implied gain of $3.93, or 60%. Winn-Dixie’s forward P/E is negative and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $5.10-$10.08, and at today’s price that’s about 29% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 35% below the 52-week high. Winn-Dixie didn’t quite meet its expected EPS loss estimate of -$0.42 when it reported earnings yesterday, but its same-store sales rose 3.3% and its revenues grew 3.1%. The company has a lot of headroom before it hits its price target or its 52-week high, and its big plus is a debt-free balance sheet.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) has a median target price of $75.00 from 15 brokers. Shares are trading today at $70.64, for an implied gain of $4.36, or 6%. Whole Foods’ forward P/E is 31.04 and the company pays a dividend yield of 0.6%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $39.95-$74.45, and at today’s price that’s about 77% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 5% below the 52-week high. The company is expected to report EPS of $0.41 on revenues of $2.36 billion after markets close today. Full-year EPS for the year ended in September is expected to be $1.93. Whole Foods has performed very well in a tight environment this year, and the company’s stock price reflects that. Expectations, as indicated by the high forward earnings multiple, might be somewhat optimistic but there’s still a 6% gain available when the company hits its target price.

Supervalu Inc. (NYSE: SVU) has a median target price of $8.38 from 10 brokers. Shares are trading today at $7.77, for an implied gain of $0.61, or 8%. Supervalu’s forward P/E is 6.03 and the company pays a dividend yield of 4.2%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $6.26-$11.77, and at today’s price that’s about 24% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 34% below the 52-week high. Like Safeway and Kroger, the average food basket price rose 2.3% at Supervalu in September. The company reported EPS of $0.28 two weeks ago, beating estimates. At the same time, the company lowered its full-year estimates on both earnings and revenues.

The Fresh Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: TFM) has a median target price of $43.50 from 8 brokers. Shares are trading today at $40.27, for an implied gain of $3.23, or 8%. Fresh Market’s forward P/E is 30.48 and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $30.86-$46.85, and at today’s price that’s about 30% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 14% below the 52-week high. Fresh Market shares started the month of September with a bang, but unfortunately the company only succeeded in generating short interest near 20% of outstanding shares. Stock price increases have stalled, and remain about where they were two months ago.

Ruddick Corp. (NYSE: RDK) has a median target price of $49.00 from 3 brokers. Shares are trading today at $43.75, for an implied gain of $5.25, or 12%. Ruddick’s forward P/E is 15.46 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.2%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $33.44-$46.00, and at today’s price that’s about 31% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 5% below the 52-week high. Ruddick sold its thread-making and textile business to a private equity buyer last week for $180 million, leaving it with just its grocery operations. Shares got a short-lived boost on the sale, but shares continue to drift away from the 52-week high and the target price.

Weis Markets, Inc. (NYSE: WMK) has a median target price of $31.00 from just one broker. Shares are trading today at $39.45, about 21% above the target price. Weis’s forward P/E is unreported and the company pays a dividend yield of 3%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $36.52-$42.20, and at today’s price that’s about 8% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 7% below the 52-week high. Just looking at Weis’s hi/low it is pretty clear that the company needed to do something to try to break its share price out of that tight range. Last week it boosted its annual dividend from $1.16 to $1.20, and declared a special dividend of $1/share. The bounce to the share price lasted just one day.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) has a median target price of $60.00 from 19 brokers. Shares are trading today at $57.06, for an implied gain of $2.94, or 5%. Walmart’s forward P/E is 11.62 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2.6%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $48.31-$57.96, and at today’s price that’s about 18% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 2% below the 52-week high. Walmart stock is trading near enough to its 52-week high that another good quarterly report could push the shares through that barrier. Walmart’s average food basket price rose 0.9% year-over-year in September, less than half as much than prices at Safeway, Kroger, and Supervalu stores.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Analyst Calls, Food, General Tagged: KR, RDK, SVU, SWY, TFM, WFM, WINN, WMK, WMT

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AET, AGP, E, JBHT, JNPR, KR, NWSA, RES SWY, CRM, SNDK, SKT, TMS, VOD, WPI, WY, WFM)

Administrator — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 12:29:29 +0000

These are some of Monday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls.

Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
AMERIGROUP Corporation (NYSE: AGP) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Eni SpA (NYSE: E) Raised to Buy at S&P.
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.
News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWSA) Started as Neutral at UBS.
RPC, Inc. (NYSE: RES) Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) Cut to Equal-weight at Global Equities Research.
SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee; named value stock of the day at Zacks.
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (NYSE: SKT) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
TMS International Corp. (NYSE: TMS) Started as Outperform with $11 target at Credit Suisse.
Vodafone Group Plc (NYSE: VOD) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: WPI) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.

We also have some more data on analysts and the calendar. Here are the top analyst upgrades and downgrades of the last week. We also have the top twelve earnings reports and an economic calendar for what is coming down the pipe this week.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AET, AGP, CRM, E, JBHT, JNPR, KR, NWSA, RES SWY, SKT, SNDK, TMS, VOD, WFM, WPI, WY

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ALTR, BK, BRCM, CTIC, CLWR, COP, DG, GFI, HTS, KR, NTES, NVAX, RAX)

Administrator — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 12:26:23 +0000

These are some of this Thursday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen having an impact from Wall Street research calls.

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) Cut to Neutral at Baird.
Bank of New York-Mellon (NYSE: BK) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ: CLWR) was Underperform and has been dropped from coverage by BofA/ML as fundamentals are not driving the shares.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Reiterated Buy with $85 target on Focus List at Argus.
Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) reiterated strong buy as Momentum stock of the day at Zacks.
Gold Fields Limited (NYSE: GFI) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Hatteras Financial Corporation (NYSE: HTS) Cut to Neutral at Macquarie.
The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
NetEase.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTES) Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) Started as Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann.
Rackspace Hosting, Inc (NYSE: RAX) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs, but reportedly Downgraded to Hold at a firm called Benchmark.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: ALTR, BK, BRCM, CLWR, COP, CTIC, DG, GFI, HTS, KR, NTES, NVAX, RAX

Earnings Season Arrives, Top Earnings Previews For The Week Ahead (NVLS, AA, ADTN, HST, PEP, GOOG, JBHT, JPM, SWY, MAT)

Administrator — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 17:15:40 +0000

They’re Here! Next week will launch the corporate earnings season for the third quarter. The media is going to tell you that this is the most important earnings season in quite some time. The media always says that, but this time it is true because investors want to know whether to still model in growth or whether they need to dig in for a recessionary climate.

24/7 Wall St. has compiled detailed earnings previews for the following companies: Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS); Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA); ADTRAN Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN); Host Hotels and Resorts Inc. (NYSE: HST); Pepsico Inc. (NYSE: PEP); Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG); J. B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT); J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM); Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY); and Mattel Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT).

Some of these companies will not really seem on the surface to be sector-movers or market-moving companies, but these have been selected because they are the first ones of their peer groups to be reporting earnings.

We have created a detailed earnings preview for each with consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters and added color in on each for investors to see what exactly is worth consideration this earnings season. We have also added in recent price history and named where to look for additonal action (or fallout).

Monday, October 10

Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) is the first chip equipment player to report for this earnings season. it has been a few weeks since we have had earnings reports or guidance in the sector so we will be paying close attention since so many companies that are chip equipment customers have talked down their numbers in recent weeks. Our belief is that expectations are very low for the quarter ahead. Estimates are $0.68 EPS and $311.9 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.50 EPS and $278.5 million in revenue. With shares hovering around $30.00 on Friday, the 52-week range is $25.26 to $41.82 and shares were above $36 in early July. After Novellus reports, we would be watching the following: Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT), KLA-Tencor Corporation (NASDAQ: KLAC), and Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX).

Tuesday, October 11

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) has already talked down aluminum prices and we have already seen slowing demand out of China talked about by many sectors. Alcoa keeps maintaining that it can double its business by 2020 and we do not expect that to be changed by management even if it guides lower expectations ahead. Estimates are $0.23 EPS and $6.24 billion in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.23 EPS and $6.11 billion in revenue. At $9.80 on Friday, the 52-week range is $8.45 to $19.47 and this one was above $16 at the start of July. There are many metals stocks to watch, some in aluminum and some in other metals: Century Aluminum Co. (NASDAQ: CENX), Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (NYSE: RS); Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ: KALU); Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE); and Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE).

Filed under: Calendar, Corporate Governance, Earnings, Earnings Warning, Economy, Editor's Picks Tagged: AA, ADTN, AMAT, BAC, C, CENX, CHH, CIEN, GOOG, HAS, HST, JBHT, JPM, KALU, KLAC, KO, KR, LRCX, LSTR, MAR, MAT, NUE, NVLS, PEP, RS, SWY, TIE, TLAB, WFC

Whole Foods M&A Rumors: Reality Check, Weekend Food For Thought (WFM, KKR, KR, SWY, TFM)

Administrator — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 15:07:37 +0000

If you have ever seen a private equity wish list if companies, Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) would be on it. The stores are sleek, the products are at a premium, and its customers seem to be somewhat immune to the woes of the rest of the world. The stores also generate far better profit margins than traditional grocers with the paltry 1% to 2%. So, this week brought up rumors and ‘reports’ that Whole Foods could be a private equity takeover target.

We do want to quantify that a single firm or a private equity group can buy almost anything if it can get financing for it. The valuations don’t always make sense on the surface. The problem is that Whole Foods trades at such a premium today that most private equity firms with more than horse-sense would instantly determine that acquiring this trophy company would come at too high of a price.

For a private equity buyer to own a company, the goal is to ultimately resell the company at a much higher price down the road. And at the time the deal is closed, a common move is to leverage the company up with debt and then to pay out a bulk of the cash on the books as a dividend to the buyers to instantly recoup 10% to 30% of the investment. Even if it takes a decade to completely exit the transaction, at least the returns up front and the return of capital along the way can justify the exercise.

It isn’t like private equity investors are exactly eager to make 2.1% in 10-year Treasury notes and it isn’t exactly as if they have made stellar returns in the stock market over the last decade under Warren Buffett’s buy and hold forever strategy.

It was the Daily Mail out of the U.K. that first floated the rumor. To say that we are skeptical of a British media outlet scooping this one, particularly the Daily Mail, would be an understatement. It noted that the premium and organic grocer could be under the watchful eyes of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (NYSE: KKR) and Bain for somewhere around $90.00 per share. Shares are currently around $59.00 and the 52-week trading range is $34.04 to $68.00. The market cap today is about $10.4 billion

Thomson Reuters has estimates for Whole Foods’ fiscal September 2011 of $1.92 EPS and $10.12 billion in sales and estimates for fiscal September 2012 of $2.25 and $11.52 billion in sales. Whole Foods trades at just over 30-times expected earnings and trades at close to 1-times expected revenues. If you count Whole Foods as a grocery store, it is just too expensive to buy for a private equity firm even at today’s prices. If you throw up a magical 50% premium to that $90.00 level, then KKR and Bain’s rumored price would be at about 45 year’s worth of earnings and about 1.5-times revenues.

Filed under: Editor's Picks, Food, Luxury, Mergers and Buy Outs, Private Equity, Product Review, Retail Tagged: KKR, KR, SWY, TFM, WFM

Reality Check: Walgreen’s Nice! Challenges Grocery & Convenience Stores (WAG, CVS, RAD, KR, SWY, WMT, TGT)

Administrator — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 20:33:04 +0000

Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) is just a drugstore… Right? Maybe not any longer in entirety. As of last year, the company operated 7,650 drugstores and it owned 37 strip shopping malls. It turns out that the company wants to migrate away from just being a drugstore. With the launch of Nice!, Walgreen is setting itself up to differentiate itself from CVS Caremark Corporation (NYSE: CVS) and Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD).

The new company is going to eventually look perhaps more like a Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) or a Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY), but perhaps the real targets are Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and even Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT). Yes, Walgreen is going after more and more of the lower-end grocery and consumer products market.

Walgreens is now planning to open some 400 Nice! stores that sell its private label products in grocery and household product categories. The company is claiming that it will offer its grocery and household products at prices which are up to 30% below other national brands. The company plans to have most of the Nice! product on its shelves by early 2012.

Walgreen has always been a place to get a flu shot or to get your medical prescriptions or consumer health and body products. While it carries some basics in food and consumer products, this really sounds like it is going a step farther. The company said its Nice! label will be on soups, sauces and bakery items, and it will add more and more Nice! brand products over the next few years.

The current store brands include Café W, Deerfield Farms, W and others, but these will be phased out and transitioned to Nice! brand products. The company has already had its private label brands under dry grocery items like tea, dried fruit, rice and even macaroni and cheese.

The drugstore chain is also going to launch a national marketing campaign in 2012 to drive awareness and generate trial and it is going to have employees promote Nice! products. This sounds a bit ambitious on the surface, except that it does have some solid data behind its news. The company noted, “Nielsen consumer research shows that 75 percent of Walgreens shoppers purchase store brands in Walgreens.” It also noted that the total private label sales market segment has grown from about $64.9 billion in 2005 to $88.5 billion in 2010 and the fastest growing private label segment is actually households with incomes of more than $100,000.00. The company also backed it up by consumer testing and new design packaging with strong reviews.

Frankly, this seems a bit of a stretch on the surface. Perhaps there is room for yet one more brand in shopping for grocery and consumer product goods. The question is whether or not this will cannibalize sales and just create another small format grocery and consumer products store.

If you ever saw the cult film “Repo Man” in the 1980s you may remember a shoot-up scene in the convenience store. The movie was such a low-budget and undesired production that all of the white-box products on the shelves had no labels and just had a physical name like “Soap” and “Cereal” and on and on. Walgreen is highly unlikely to fall into that category, but it would be easy to argue that there is a big risk here even if the launch is only 400 stores.

Maybe the real target is just 7-Eleven. This may turn out to be a profitable move for the company, but it is far from being a riskless move.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Consumer Goods, Corporate Governance, Economy, Food, Product Review, Retail, Shareholder Issues Tagged: CVS, KR, RAD, SWY, TGT, WAG, WMT