Posts for Ticker ‘KSS’

Black Friday Gimmicks & Desperation, A Win For Consumers (WMT, BBY, COST, TGT, KSS, GPS, M, JWN, MA, AMZN)

We are right at a week away from the highly awaited Black Friday for 2009’s holiday and Christmas season.  As you likely know, this is THE day that retailers look forward to all year and critically depend upon as an anchor to how each retailer’s full year earnings results turn out.  You may already be tired of Christmas ads and the holidays haven’t even arrived yet.  With over 10% unemployment, a recession-end that doesn’t feel like a recession-end, a very tight discretionary spending budget, and a general lack of consumer confidence, it is no surprise at all that the focus for the Holiday Season in 2009 is one of deals and thrift.

These are not in any particular order, but the promotions have been reviewed at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M), and Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN).  There is also already promotion between MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN).  Admittedly, this is just a sampling of major outlets.

What is amazing is just how much of the deal-making is already out before the holiday season starts as retailers key off of each other.  It is almost impossible to avoid thinking how such a promotional Christmas and Holiday Season in 2009 is going to add pressure to margins at almost all the first-line retailers.
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Macy’s Highlights Value-Performance Conundrum in Dept. Stores (M, JWN, KSS)

Bull and Bear ImageMacy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) is showing just how much of a conundrum there is between today’s retail stock valuations and the reality of what to expect from earnings ahead.  Macy’s had a narrower loss in the last quarter of $35 million, or -$0.08 EPS; but outside of items its earnings were -$0.03 EPS.  Revenues were down over 3% to $5.28 billion. Thomson Reuters had estimates at -$0.07 EPS and $5.25 billion in revenues.    The company did manage solid inventory management controls and its ongoing localized merchandise by region was part of why it raised its sales and earnings guidance for the year.

Still, there are issues between today’s share price versus valuations and where it came up from.  This also highlights issues that lie ahead for Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) and Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) ahead of their earnings this week.
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The 100 Hardest Working Brands In The World

hersheyThere are a number of ways to rank brand values. One of the most important is the level at which a brand contributes to the market value of a public company.

24/7 Wall St. asked Corebrand, the brand research and consulting firm, to look at the top 100 brands based their contribution to market capitalizaton. Using this method, the hardest working brand was Hershey (NYSE:HSY), followed  by Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG)

Corebrand described the process briefly to 24/7 Wall. St.

24/7 Wall St.: Corebard often refers to the brands on this list as the”hardest working brands”. How did you come to that description?

Corebrand: There are a lot of people measuring and examining the “strongest brands” or the “most valuable brands”.  Our opinion is that examining one without the other is somewhat meaningless.  How “strong” a brand is nice to know but not very relevant unless you understand how that strength benefits business.  Similarly, “value” is little more than a measure of corporate size unless you understand the drivers of that value and how to influence it. By examining the strength of the brand and it’s contribution to total market value, we can help companies and their leadership manage that strength and value over time.

24/7 Wall St.: Is there any advantage or disadvantage to having a brand value be a very large percentage of market cap in the present and as an indication of a company’s future performance?

Corebrand: The brand will need to be in balance with the rest of the company’s assets.  A company should strive to have it’s brand strong enough to fend off competitors or changing market conditions but not so strong that it becomes overly dependent on the brand as a single driver of value.  If a company can achieve and maintain its appropriate maximum strength without becoming over-dependent, it will see greater returns in bull markets and retain greater value in bear markets.

The list: Read More »

Top Analyst Upgrades (ANF, CSCO, KO, GR, HMY, KSS, NWS-A, DIS, VIA-B)

These are this Wednesday mornings top pre-market analyst upgrades and positive research calls we have seen early on from Wall Street:

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) Raised to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) Raised to Outperform at William Blair.
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Goodrich (NYSE: GR) Raised to Outperform at FBR Capital.
Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY) Raised to Buy at Nomura.
Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
News Corp (NWS-A) Raised to Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
The Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) Raised to Neutral at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Viacom B (VIA-B) Raised to Neutral at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

You can join our open email distribution list which goes out several times per week for reminders of the top day trader alerts, analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO’s, key secondary offerings, guru investor data on Buffett and others, mergers, and more.

JON C. OGG

52-Week High Club

Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL) hit a yearly high of $13.47 after beating both guidance and analyst estimates for its quarterly earnings.

Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS) hit a yearly high of $57.19 after the company announced the opening of 37 new stores.

Och-Ziff Capital Management (NYSE: OZM) hit a yearly high of $12.24 as the company continues to recover from a significant decline in assest under management.

Petrobras Energia Participaciones SA (NYSE: PZE) rallied over 180% to a yearly high of $17.97 after it announced that the company was completing reorganization moves.

TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE: TDG) hit a yearly high of $49.94 after announcing that it would offer $425 million of senior subordinated notes in order to fund a special dividend.

Virgin Media Inc. (NASDAQ: VMED) hit a yearly high of 13.97, capping off a monthly gain of 17%.

Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) hit a yearly  high of $17.80, capping off a monthly gain of nearly 20%.

Garrett W. McIntyre

Top Analyst Calls (ABB, ABX, BBY, COST, HD, KSS, LOW, PAAS, UNH)

money-stack-image35These are some of the broad upgrades and positive research calls from Wall Street analysts that we have seen this Tuesday morning:

  • ABB (ABB) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • Barrick Gold (ABX) Raised to Outperform at CIBC.
  • Best Buy (BBY) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • Costco (COST) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • Home Depot (HD) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • Kohl’s (KSS) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • Lowe’s (LOW) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • Pan American (PAAS) Raised to Outperform at CIBC.
  • UnitedHealth (UNH) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein.

JON C. OGG

Top Analyst Upgrades (BIG, GLW, DRIV, DUK, KSS, MEOH, PFE, STP, TRV, WYE)

money-stack-image19These are the top pre-market analyst upgrades and positive calls we have seen from analysts this Tuesday morning:

  • Big Lots (BIG) Raised to Buy at Soleil.
  • Corning (GLW) Raised to Buy at Collins Stewart.
  • Digital River (DRIV) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • Duke Energy (DUK) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Kohl’s (KSS) Raised to Buy at BofA Merrill.
  • Methanex (MEOH) Raised to Outperform at CIBC.
  • Pfizer (PFE) Raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Suntech Power (STP) Raised to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
  • Travelers (TRV) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Wyeth (WYE)  Raised to Buy at UBS.

JON C. OGG

S&P Pans Retailer Ratings (DDS, M, JWN, JCP, SHLD, BONT, KSS, SKS)

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services has put six department store companies on CreditWatch with negative implications and has changed the outlook on three department store companies to negative from stable.  Moody’s & Fitch either downgraded or warned of possible downgrades.  Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS), Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP), Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD), Bon-Ton Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: BONT), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) were all part of the S&P call late today.

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Media Digest 11/14/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

NewspaperAccording to Reuters, concerns about the global economy are growing as the G20 nations are meeting.

Reuters says that Congress challenged banks on how they would use bailout funds.

Reuters reports that companies including Honda (HMC), Home Depot (HD), and Dow Chemical (DOW) want the Fed to buy their commercial paper.

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Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (CIM, CCE, KMB, KSS, WFC, AMAT, FTI, SSYS)

It is looking pretty light so far from analyst coverage this Monday morning.  Here are some of the top individual stock calls we have seen this morning from Wall Street analysts:

  • Chimera Investment (NYSE: CIM) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
  • Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
  • Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS) Raised to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
  • Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
  • FMC Technologies (NYSE: FTI) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • Stratasys (NASDAQ: SSYS) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.

Here was a sector downgrade this morning from Deutsche Bank on the solar stocks.

Jon C. Ogg
November 10, 2008

Consumers Not Even Window Shopping (WMT, COST, TGT, SKS, JWN, JCP, KSS, DDS, M)

BurningmoneyThe retail sales numbers on Main Street are truly going to hell in a hand basket.  The only bright spot is Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT), and that is just indicative of a tapped out consumer that is heading over to the trade-down shop for all their needs.  Think of it as the new general store.  Target (NYSE: TGT) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST) posted worse-than-expected sales.    If you were looking for good news out of the department stores, let’s just say that you can find great news if you pretend that those minus signs in front of each number are not really there.

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Early Bird Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ADTN, EYE, HOC, INCY, PTR, CEG, KSS, VNO, WFMI)

These are some of the early bird analyst calls we are seeing in stocks this Thursday morning which could impact shares:

  • ADTRAN (ADTN) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
  • Advanced Medical Optics (EYE) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
  • Constellation Energy (CEG) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
  • Holly Corp. (HOC) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Incyte Corp. (INCY) Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Kohl’s (KSS) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
  • PetroChina (PTR) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Cut to Market Perform at Wachovia.
  • Whole Foods (WFMI) Started as Underperform at FBR.

Jon C. Ogg
September 18, 2008

Goldman Sachs Cans Department Stores (M, KSS, DDS)

Goldman_sachs_logoGoldman Sachs is out with a negative call this morning that is a downgrade in the department stores section of the retail sector.  The firm believes that gains of some 30% while companies are still warning ahead or are still very cautious has been too much of a share run-up.  The drop in oil prices may also not be sustainable as Goldman Sachs reiterated its oil target of $149 per barrel.  It also blames a lack of sales being the big issue.  Macy’s (NYSE: M) and Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS) were both downgraded to Neutral from Buy.  Macy’s shares are down about 2.3% at $19.85 and Kohl’s is down about 1.8% at $47.95 in pre-market trading.  We have seen no indications nor any trades in Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS).

JON C. OGG
August 20, 2008

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AFL, AXP, ABX, CATM, KSS, LOW, LULU, MDAS, MET, MHS, TNK)

It is going to be hard to get traders to care about mere upgrades and downgrades on a day when the Federal Reserve did an inter-meeting emergency rate cut to stave off a 500+ point drop in the DJIA.  But here are some of the calls from analysts today:

  • AFLAC inc. (AFL) raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • American Express (AXP) downgraded to Hold at Citigroup.
  • Barrick Gold (ABX) upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Cardtronics (CATM) started as Buy at Banc of America; started as Buy at Deutsche Bank; started as Buy at Piper Jaffray.
  • Kohl’s (KSS) & Lowe’s (LOW) raised to Outperform at Bernstein.
  • lululemon althletica (LULU) downgraded to Underperform at BMO Capital.
  • MedAssets (MDAS) started as Buy at Deutsche Bank; started as Neutral at Piper Jaffray; started as Market Perform at Wachovia.
  • MetLife (MET) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Medco Health Solutions (MHS) cut to Neutral at UBS.
  • Teekay Tankers (TNK) started as Overweight at JPMorgan; started as Hold at Citigroup.

Jon C. Ogg
January 22, 2008

Macy’s: Growth Through Closures.. Expect Others To Follow (M, KSS, SHLD, TJX, JCP)

In a slowing retail environment, Macy’s (NYSE: M) has decided it’s time to close some stores.  This may not sound like a great ‘growth strategy’ for a retailer, but some companies reach the size that sometimes growth has to occur during actual contraction.  It has slated 9 stores to be closed. 

Macy’s isn’t stopping all growth plans, although if this review gets sharper it could lead to a flat store count through time. It opened 10 new stores and one furniture gallery in 2007. In 2008, Macy’s expects to open five stores, with an additional six to eight new locations currently planned for 2009.  Macy’s currently operates more than 850 department stores, so this is a small drop in the bucket and will only have a limited impact in longer-term sales models.

Below are the nine stores getting the boot:

  • Washington Square in Indianapolis, IN (opened in 1974);
  • Prien Lake Mall in Lake Charles, LA (opened in 2003);
  • Rolling Acres Mall in Akron, OH (opened in 1978);
  • Canton Centre in Canton, OH (opened in 1968);
  • Randall Park Mall in North Randall, OH (opened in 1976);
  • Crossroads Mall in Oklahoma City, OK (opened in 1986);
  • Valley View Center in Dallas, TX (opened in 1973);
  • Sharpstown Center in Houston, TX (opened in 1961);
  • Family Center at Riverdale in Riverdale, UT (opened in 2003).

I don’t know if these other stores are in good areas that are just being used for cost cutting, but if you have ever been to Sharpstown Mall in Houston you might not doubt why the company is pulling out.

It sure sounds like Macy’s may have something in common with winter skinny dippers: shrinkage.  But in all honesty and joking aside, Macy’s may actually need to review even more stores for possible closure if the performance or the retail environment continue to soften.  With their stock hitting 52-week lows you can expect reviews to be stricter and tighter in a weak 2008.

This may have other ramifications in the retail superstore centers and mall operators.  There are many redundant stores in major cities and many geographic locations throughout the country that just aren’t worth the effort for some retailers to continue in.  If you want to try to guess who else may start the downsizing of underperforming stores in a weaker economy take a look at the competitors:

  • Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS) operated 834 stores as of the end of last quarter.
  • Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD), as of February 2007, operated many more stores than Macy’s and we know Eddie Lampert wants to start making money again on his investment.
  • TJX (NYSE: TJX), as of November 2007, operated 851 T.J.Maxx stores, 778 Marshalls, 287 HomeGoods, 130 A.J.Wrights in the U.S. alone with others located elsewhere in Canada and Europe.
  • J.C.Penney (NYSE: JCP) as of November 2007, had more than 1,000 stores in the U.S. territory.

If this gets Macy’s off that 52-week low club, it’s hard to imagine that other department store operators won’t follow suite with selective closures in the 1% to 2% area.

Jon C. Ogg
December 28, 2007

The Business Day In Global Warming (KSS, MAG, FPL, BZH, PRRY, CPNLQ, DELL, ING)

Kohl’s Department Stores (NYSE:KSS) is activating a solar rollout to its 63 California locations.

Magnetek, Inc. (NYSE:MAG) has received orders from United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) for PCS-2C and -2D fuel cell power inverters totaling 2.4 megawatts in a contract valued at approximately $1.3 million scheduled for delivery over the coming 8 months.

FPL Group, Inc. (NYSE:FPL), the Florida Power & Lighting parent, announced today a $2.4 billion investment program aimed at increasing U.S. solar thermal energy output and reducing carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to global warming: up to $1.5 billion in new solar thermal generating facilities; Investment of up to $500 million by FPL to create a smart network that will provide its 4.5 million customers with enhanced energy management capabilities; and a new consumer education program and new products that could increase renewable energy resources by at least $400 million over the first five years of the program.

Beazer Homes (NYSE:BZH) becomes a principal sponsor for Georgia Tech Solar Decathlon 2007.  For some reason, it seems they’ll still have bad home sales.

Planet Resource Recovery, Inc. (PINK SHEETS: PRRY) announced today that it has delivered its first shipment of PetroLuxus™ 600 for the treatment of biodiesel that will streamline the production of biodiesel in a cost-effective and time-efficient manner.

Calpine Corporation (Pink Sheets: CPNLQ) received final approval today from the California Energy Commission (CEC) to construct the 600-megawatt Russell City Energy Center in Hayward, Calif.

Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) today said it will become the first computer maker to neutralize its greenhouse gas emissions. CEO Michael Dell announced a series of measures to shrink the company’s carbon footprint and offset  its greenhouse gas emissions in 2008.

ING (NYSE:ING) announced today the next phase of its worldwide sustainability commitment by agreeing to
purchase clean, emission-free wind energy credits for its U.S. operations.

Jon C. Ogg
September 26, 2007

As a reminder, whether you prefer the term "Global Warming" or"Climate Change" is not the issue as far as 24/7 Wall St. covers it.Green business has become big business, and this affects many publiccompanies today.

Retail Sales In August Not On Life Support

Just yesterday and the day before, the tone was looking to be that sub-prime fallout and the recent tightening on credit was helping to squash Joe Q. Consumer in the U.S.  Yesterday, CostCo (COST) shares were hit hard on a big miss in same store sales gains.  J.C.Penney (JCP) just yesterday also gave -4% s-s-s, although that was a tad better than the -5% estimate.

But this morning both Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT) beat sales same store sales expectations with +3.1% and +6.1% respectively.  Take a look at these other same store sales (s-s-s) numbers from some of the larger chain retailers:

Saks (SKS) s-s-s +18.2% vs. +9.2% estimates.  This is the s-s-s winner, by far.  Shares are up over 4% pre-market and still only about 10% above 52-week stock lows.  At $16.00 pre-market, this is well under the $23.25 yearly high.

Nordstrom (JWN) +6.6% s-s-s vs. +6.3% estimates.

TJX (TJX), the owner of discounter TJMAXX and Marshall’s, posted +4% s-s-s vs. 3.8% estimates.

NEGATIVES:

Kohl’s (KSS) s-s-s -0.6% compared to +2.7% estimates.

Dillard’s (DDS) s-s-s were -5%, compared to -2.9% estimates.

Gap Inc. (GPS) s-s-s were -1%, although analysts were looking for -2%.

These are just a snapshot, but regardless of the overall estimates it does not appear that Joe Q. Consumer is dead.  It seems every time that the consumer is ruled dead on arrival that he or she pops up again.  This doesn’t even look like zombie mode either.

The biggest example of the sector winning today is the key ETF used to measure the group with the ML RETAIL HOLDRs (RTH), with shares up over 1% pre-market.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the 24/7 Wall St. SPECIAL SITUATION INVESTING NEWSLETTER and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (June 27, 2007)

BRKR raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
CYT raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
FFIV cut to Neutral at Baird.
FIRE raised to Buy at Jefferies.
KSS raised to Outperform at Baird.
MLNM raised to Mkt Perform at FBR.
MOS cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
MTH started as Hold at Deutsche Bank.
PHM started as Hold at Deutsche Bank.
PRXL raised to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
RYL started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
TRS started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
TSO cut to Sell at Citigroup.
VLO cut to Sell at Citigroup.
VMSI cut to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.

Jon C. Ogg
June 27, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Not All May Retail Stores Were Weak (COST, KSS, JWN, JOSB, SKS, ZUMZ, PSUN, SHRP)

Despite an earnings warnings out of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) earlier this week and despite some perceived softness at Wal-Mart (WMT), there were actually some retail winners that posted strong same-store-sales gains above expectations for the month of May.  Here is a sample of some that beat the mark:

Costco (COST)         +7.0% vs. +5.6% est.
Jos. A. Banks (JOSB)     +13.5% vs. +4% est.
JW Nordstrom (JWN)     +6.3% vs. +2.6% est.
Kohl’s (KSS)         +10.5% vs. +6.3% est.
Pacific Sunwear (PSUN)  +6.4% vs. +1.9% est.
Saks (SKS)         +37.9% vs. +14% est.
Zumiez (ZUMZ)         +11.2% vs. +7.3% est.

Sharper Image (SHRP) did not do well on the surface with same-store-sales coming in at -8%, but when you take into consideration the steady double-digit declines and that the First Call estimate was looking for -13.8% then this isn’t quite so bad.  As we have noted on many occasions, sometimes Wall Street will reward disparaged companies that merely do ‘LESS BAD’ than they have in prior periods.  Shares are down more than 1% on very thin volume and somehow shares have managed to come back up close to 52-week highs, so we won’t be looking for a major run today.

Jon C. Ogg
June 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Says Retail Is It

Stock Tickers: JCP, KSS, JCP, SHLD, RL, SKS, CROX

Cramer’s retail rovery is the topic of his video (thestreet.com video section) and noted these aren’t all blow-ups.  He thinks retail will have a couple day run and that he thinks gasoline prices are peaked.  So he thinks summer will be ok for retail, except for outdoor and furniture. Here are his picks: "Stick with JC Penney (JCP)" is what he said, as I figured he would.  Kohl’s (KSS) and Sears (SHLD) he still likes, but said Saks (SKS) is the go-to name ahead of next week’s earnings. Cramer also digs Ralph Lauren (RL) at $93.00 going higher.  Crocs (CROX) is one he thinks more good analyst calls will drive it up, but after that he’d say to go out.

Jon C. Ogg
May 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.