The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 56 points to 12,359.92 (-0.45%), the NASDAQ rose more than 4 points (0.16%) to 2,674.22, and the S&P 500 fell -0.25% or more than 3 points to 1,277.81.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) cut to ‘market perform’ at Wells Fargo; Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) reiterated as ‘outperform’ and target price raised to $60 at Credit Suisse; Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) cut to ‘hold’ at Argus; SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) raised to ‘buy’ at Sterne Agee; and FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) started as ‘outperform’ at Wells Fargo.

Earnings reports of note since markets closed yesterday include: Commercial Metals Co. (NYSE: CMC) is up more than 4% at $15.01; Apollo Group is up about 5.5% at $56.68, after posting a new 52-week high of $57.09 earlier today; Imperial Sugar Co. (NASDAQ: IPSU) is down nearly -6% at $3.32; PriceSmart Inc. (NASDAQ: PSMT) is down nearly -15% at $60.13; Greenbrier Cos. (NYSE: GBX) is up nearly 9% at $25.97; and Texas Industries Inc. (NYSE: TXI) is down more than -3% at $28.15.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Acadia Healthcare Co. Inc. (NASDAQ: ACHC) is up nearly 19% at $11.60 after posting a new 52-week high of $11.81 earlier today. The healthcare services company agreed to pay $91 million to acquire three additional facilities in Arizona, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (NYSE: KKD) is up nearly 12% at $7.16. The doughnut maker recently opened its 10,000th store and the stock was upgraded to ‘overweight’ at Stephens with a target price of $8.50.

RF Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: RFMD) is down more than -19% at $4.55 after posting a new 52-week low of $4.45 earlier today. The technology company warned that sales in the third fiscal quarter would be 10% lower than previously forecast.

EnerNOC Inc. (NASDAQ: ENOC) is down nearly -9% at $9.43. The energy services company’s revenues are threatened by a recent regulatory ruling.

Saba Software Inc. (NASDAQ: SABA) is up more than 15% at $8.54. The cloud software company lost less than expected in its most recent quarter and said that it would return to profitability in the second of the year.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) is up more than 10% at $1.73. The homebuilder’s stock is probably reacting to the remarks by two Fed presidents supporting additional lending and homebuilding.

Stay tuned for Monday. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart is giving a speech. Here are the noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 11:30 a.m. – 3- and 6-month Treasury bill auctions
• 3:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve consumer credit report

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Paul Ausick

AGCO Corporation (NYSE: AGCO) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) Reiterated Outperform and Raised Target to $60 at Credit Suisse.
Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) Maintained Hold but lowered estimates at Argus.
Career Education Corporation (NASDAQ: CECO) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) Reiterated Neutral with $10 target at Baird.
FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) Cut to Market Perform by Wells Fargo.
Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) named as Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.
Illinois Tool Works. Inc. (NYSE: ITW) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee.
Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS) Cut to Hold at Argus.
SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) Raised to Buy at Stern Agee.
TD AMERITRADE Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: AMTD) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TRV) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS) Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Started as Underperform and named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Vodafone Group PLC (NYSE: VOD) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Zhongpin, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOGS) Started as outperform at Oppenheimer.

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JON C. OGG

Teen stores Buckle and Zumiez battered expectations, while Gap and Wet Seal both missed expectations badly.

Data from CNBC.

Shares had risen from under $26 to over $35 based upon Ron Johnson’s taking the helm.  Prior to that, J.C. Penney had been somewhat on life support compared to Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS).  It did manage to do better than Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS).

The retail chain posted December same-store sales of 0.3% versus an expected drop of -0.1%.  Last year the company posted a same-store sales increase of 3.7%.  The outlook is as follows: “Due to the softer sales performance during the first two months of the quarter, the Company now anticipates that comparable store sales for the fourth quarter will be down slightly to last year. Earnings before one-time items identified below, are now expected to be in the range of $0.65 to $0.70 per share on a non-GAAP basis, reflecting lower sales and higher markdown activity than anticipated throughout the quarter.”  The consensus estimate had been $1.08 EPS.

Investors who missed getting in on this one may look at the news with a smile because it at least allows them a closer chance of getting in on a transformation in the making. Ron Johnson, the brains behind the retail effort of the hugely successful stores of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), has taken over as CEO.  For new investors, this is not a fourth quarter story.  This is not a story of guidance for the current quarter, and it may not even be a story of strong results in 2012. 

Ron Johnson is set to transform the look and feel of this company entirely.  The company has already signed a deal with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO) for branded merchandise for years ahead.  Johnson is going to unveil his new store design later this month (January 25) and here is a photo of the invite that was sent to me last night:

Penney’s shares are down about 6.2% at $32.75 and the 52-week range is $23.44 to $41.00.  This drop still only gets the stock back down to the prior consensus price target of $32.31 from Thomson Reuters.  Unfortunately, this turnaround story is not cheap against other retailers on a forward earnings valuation.  That happens to be the case in many turnarounds as investors sometimes pay a premium to get in line.

New investors and those on the sidelines may hope that the stock gets back into the high $20′s.  That may happen and it may not.  When you consider that Ron Johnson is likely going to revamp the company from the ground up and give a major facelift to bring the Apple-cool through the doors and when you consider that Apple’s playbook has been to “underpromise and over-deliver,” this drop may be a blessing for new and interested investors.

The good news is that the stock also offers stock options so investors van hedge their turnaround bets rather easily.  Options expire on January 20, 2012, but the February options make it easy to invest with providing downside protection of about only 5% risk in the next six weeks.  For a turnaround story under a great new retail leader, that might be a gift.

The other side of the coin is simple, even if hard to consider: What if Ron Johnson flops?  It is easy to argue that clothing, accessories and household products have no catalyst like Apple did a decade ago.

Stay tuned.

JON C. OGG

Founded in 1983 as a small boutique selling Mexican folk art and cotton sweaters on Sanibel Island in Florida, Chico’s now operates more than 1,200 outlets and boutiques throughout the U.S., selling casual-to-dressy apparel and related accessories under the Chico’s brand, White House/Black Market and Soma Intimates names, catering mostly to women over the age of 35.

Although net sales for the third quarter ended October 29 increased 11.5% year-over-year to $539 million, the Fort Myers, Fla.-based retailer posted quarterly earnings of 16 cents per share, lower than the consensus analyst estimate of 20 cents. Absent traffic, the company was forced to increase promotional activities and offer aggressive discounts to move merchandise, especially at its namesake stores. Gross margin fell 100 basis points to 56% and inventory increased 38% to $247 million.

Though gross margin is forecast to fall 100 to 200 basis points in the fourth quarter (reflecting a need to push-out end-of-year merchandise through discounting), management insists the decline is not related to execution problems. Chief executive officer David Dyer pointed out on the third-quarter 2011 conference call with analysts that the White House and Soma brands “delivered record sales and margins in the third quarter, thanks to a more fashionable mix of lingerie, dresses and beauty.”

“It’s the economy, stupid!” ~ Democratic strategist James Carville

All four brands — from dinner party fashions at Boston Proper to pajamas and “Vanishing Back” bras available at Soma Intimates — are resonating with shoppers, said chief financial officer Pamela Knous on the earnings call. “And I am proud to say,” declared Knous, that the 11.5% increase in sales “represents the tenth consecutive quarter of positive comparables.”

What Knous did not say was that consolidated sales comparables grew only 3.7%. Her double-digit growth comment reflected increases from new store openings — not actual organic growth at locations open more than one year!

Even more troubling, although new traffic was up for the combined Chicos and Soma Intimates brands, which accounted for 66% of quarterly revenue, comparables grew only 0.6%, compared to sales growth of 3.6% last year. Knous said the slowdown reflected the Chico’s customer’s “cautious purchasing behavior in light of continuing uncertain economic conditions.”

“When I see a bird that walks like a duck and swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, I call that bird a duck.” ~ American poet James Whitcomb Riley (1849 – 1916)

Notwithstanding, the Chico’s namesake brand, average dollar sales and transaction counts are supposed to be up across all other brands, according to management. Why, then, will the company not break out segment profit and loss (P&L) statements?

Looking to extend its customer’s experience to intimate apparel, a $13.5 billion market (led by Victoria’s Secret’s commanding 25% share), Chico’s has grown the Soma label from 10 stores in 2005 to more than 200. Given the company’s ambitions are no longer “a secret,” why should the brand’s contribution to P&L still be considered such — unless discount pricing is driving sales growth — and eating into profits?

Management contends that there is space for another specialty lingerie brand. Though sales and profits are sizzling these days at industry bellwether Victoria’s Secret, owned by Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD), the playing field is not level for an upstart like Chico’s: Soma Intimates does not have the real estate. With just one-fifth as many stores, the company cannot similarly leverage product campaigns (do not expect an NBC runway show in primetime anytime soon). Additionally, deep-discounters like Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) and Kohls (NYSE: KSS), with respective market shares of 17% and 8%, are battling for the budget-constrained pocketbooks of shoppers (looking for bargains) too. Ergo, Chico’s promulgations of full pricing and fashion parading hand-in-hand at Soma Intimates, in my opinion, is just fantasy talk.

On the earnings call, Nomura retail analyst Paul Lejuez was ignored when he specifically asked Dyer or Knous to detail the P&L impact of Soma Intimates on quarterly income. The company did not return my call seeking comment, too.

Troubling Trends Ahead

There are stormy headwinds blowing toward Chico’s, which management — whether deliberately or blithely — refuses to address:

• “Excluding $3.5 million of non-recurring, after-tax Boston Proper acquisition and integration cost, earnings per diluted share were $0.18 compared to $0.16 last year, a 13% increase,” said Knous. “Our best third quarter earnings per share results since 2006.” If this is Chicos’ best — I’d hate to see “average” performance. The quality of the company’s earnings is suspect. Actual net income year-on-year fell 8.2% to $26.46 million, according to regulatory filings. Share-net income received an artificial boost because actual (weighted) share count outstanding fell by 10 million in the last year due to open-market stock repurchases.
• In total, the company should exit the year at 1,250 stores, an increase of about 8% in square footage. However, in-store inventory is up some 17% per square foot, which suggests a continued reliance on aggressive promotions to push out seasonal merchandise — and a delay in margin turnarounds.
• Further evidence of a disconnect with female shoppers is found in days inventory outstanding (DIO), a performance metric that measures how long it takes inventory to be replaced on store shelves. In the third quarter, DIO rose year-over-year from 73.5 days to 81 days. Part of the cash conversion cycle, an increase in DIO whispers a liquidity crisis could be in the wind, as Chico’s inventory accounts for almost 46% of current assets (of $543.5 million).

“The best offense is having the right product for the customers.” ~ Chicos CEO David Dyer

Management believes that Chico’s has sufficient capital — cash flow from operations and existing cash and marketable securities balances — needed for the 100 (plus) new store openings in 2012 ($100 – 120 million), plus continued investment associated with the Soma brand, store remodel/expansions and cash required for inventory levels associated with this growth. Additionally, the company has no long-term debt and, if necessary, an untapped bank credit-line totaling $70 million.

Cash and equivalents totaling $195 million plus year-to-date operations that threw off $181 million suggest that liquidity should be sufficient to weather more of the same soft retail environment predicted for 2012 (including continued pressure on margins from promotional activities). That said, the company is spending money like a drunken sailor: $212 million acquisition of Boston Proper last fall, $70 million in dividend payouts, $176 million stock repurchases of 13.7 million shares (since August 2010) and the just-announced $200 million new stock buyback program.

Strong quarterly results at Limited Brands and Ann Inc (NYSE: ANN), parent company of Ann Taylor and LOFT brands, demonstrate that even in a weak economy customers will pay “full-price” for the right products. However, in my opinion, the company has overestimated its own pricing power. Consequently, if trouble follows the company into 2013, build-outs planned for Boston Proper and Soma could grind to a halt. As the share price of Chico’s FAS is down some 36% from its 52-week high of $16.60, consensus among investors would be to agree — and flee.

David J Phillips

November car sales numbers were telling in several ways. SUV sales picked up. Perhaps American believe the drop in gas prices will be long-lived. If not, drivers with the large trucks face several years of expensive motoring. Japanese car companies continued to lose ground, with the exception of Nissan. Toyota (NYSE: TM) and Honda (NYSE: HMC) still have production disruption problems due to the March earthquake. November U.S. sales also showed the continued rising success of American car companies. All three posted substantial gains. The most impressive of them was Chrysler, which said units sold increased 45% over November of last year. The company sold more than 100,000 cars and light trucks last month. It is a compelling victory for a company that went through Chapter 11 just three years ago. It is also a victory for Fiat, which now owns Chrysler.

Retail results for November and third-quarter earnings from some store chains were another indication that several companies are now permanently out of the race for profits and better revenue. Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) posted poor quarterly results. Its store sales were weak and its investment in e-commerce expensive. The book company has battled Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) for years, and it is more clear with each quarter that the fight is one it cannot win. Weak retailers like Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Gap (NYSE: GPS) and Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS) continued to get weaker. Their competitions have overwhelmed them in price, store configuration and location, and e-commerce efforts. Those are not advantages that can be overcome.

Google’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) Chrome browser passed Firefox as the second most used product in the business. It sits behind only Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) Internet Explorer. The gains could be critical to Google’s advances into businesses like social networking. The Google browser bar offers rapid access to its products, such as social network launch Google+. Microsoft loses chances to promote its products in the browser space as its share shrinks. The Chrome advance is another example of how Google has pushed into businesses beyond search. The most prominent of these is the Android mobile OS. But Chrome, Google Maps, YouTube and Google’s image search product are parts of the largest search company’s success in diversification.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Limited Brands’ same-store sales rose 7%, compared with a consensus estimate of 4.4%. Net sales fell by -2.3%, however, from $893 million a year ago to $872.6 million. The company also announced a $2/share special dividend to be paid on December 23rd to shareholders of record on December 12th.

The Talbot’s Inc. (NYSE: TLB) reported third-quarter earnings this morning and posted an adjusted EPS loss of -$0.22, compared with a consensus estimate of an EPS loss of -$0.16. Same-store sales fell by -4% in November. Talbot’s has closed 35 store locations so far this year and plans to close a total of 110 locations by the end of its 2013 fiscal year.

Costco’s same-store sales rose 7%, excluding gasoline and currency effects. Including gasoline, sales were up 9%. Analysts were expecting a rise of 6.5%.

Target posted a same-store sales gain of 1.8% in November, but analysts were looking for a gain of 2.8%. The company’s CEO said that he expects December to offer a “competitive and promotional environment as consumers continue to focus on value.”

Macy’s same-store sales rose 4.8% last month, and total sales were up 5.3%. The consensus estimate for same-store sales was an increase of 4.1%.

Dillard’s posted a same-store sales jump of 3%, in-line with the average estimate.

Nordstrom reported November same-store sales rose 5.6%, compared with an average analyst estimate of 5%. Total sales rose nearly 12% in November.

Kohl’s reported that November same-store sales fell -6.2%, while analysts were expecting a 2% increase. The CEO called the results “disappointing,” and said that the company expects to benefit from customers seeking value during the remainder of the holiday shopping season.

Gap same-store sales fell by -5%, more than the analysts’ expectation of a -4.3% decline. The company’s CEO expects December to “to remain fiercely competitive and highly promotional.”

Ross posted a same-store sales increase of 5% in November, better than the 3.7% that analysts were expecting. The company said it expects a 3%-4% increase in December as well.

Penney’s same-store sales fell -2% in November, compared with a -1.6% decline expected by the analysts. Total sales also fell by nearly -6% in the month.

TJX reported same-store sales growth of 4%, in-line with the average estimate. The company’s CEO said that the store would have performed better but for the warmer weather which put off winter clothes buying.

Lululemon reported third-quarter earnings today, noting that same-store sales jumped 16% in the quarter. Shares are down more than -11% in the first half-hour of trading this morning. Here’s our coverage of the company’s earnings report.

Stage Stores reported same-store sales rose 2.3%, compared with an estimate for a flat month. Total sales rose 4.3%, and the company’s CEO said that the final week of the month was “very strong.”

Pier One released third quarter sales figures today, and same-store sales for the quarter ending November 27th rose 7%. The company said quarterly EPS would be $0.20-$0.21, compared with the consensus EPS estimate of $0.18. Same-store sales for the holiday weekend were up 10% over last year.

Paul Ausick

But brick-and-mortar retailers are getting some help from an unexpected quarter this season. Customers are using mobile devices — smartphones mostly, but some tablets as well — to compare prices right on the sales floor. A few stores are equipping salespeople with mobile devices of their own in order to check availability and price as well as competitive offers. A retailer that can meet or beat a competitor’s price on the spot might capture a sale that otherwise would have been lost. It is indeed a brave new world of retailing out there.

We’re taking a look at seven retailers today: Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), and Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY).

All data from Yahoo! Finance, with current prices gathered at around noon today.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) has a median price target of $89.00 from 21 brokers. The current share price is $81.99, for a potential upside of $7.01, or 8.6%. The company pays a dividend yield of 1.2% and the forward P/E is 18.49. Costco has performed at or above expectations for a while now, and shares are pretty fully valued. The target price is above the 52-week high, which indicates that analysts are expecting the company to continue performing well, but Costco’s share price has risen just 1% since mid-October and its target price was raised less than 1%.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) has a median target price of $62.50 from 18 brokers. The current share price is $56.96, for a potential upside of $5.54, or 9.7%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2.6%, and its forward P/E is 11.57. Walmart’s most recent quarter included some growth in US sales, which is something that has been missing for a while now. The company has put up a new 52-week high since mid-October, its share price has risen 3%, and its target price was raised by nearly 6% in the same time period. That combination would indicate that investors and analysts like what they see — and expect more of the same.

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) has a median target price of $60.00 from 21 brokers. The current share price is $52.78, for a potential upside of $7.22, or 13.7%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2.3% and its forward P/E is 12.03. Target’s target price has risen about 2.6% since mid-October and its share price has gained 6% in the same period. Unlike either Costco or Walmart, the company’s target price is still below its 52-week high.

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) has a median target price of $36.00 from 17 brokers. The current share price is $30.79, for a potential upside of $5.21, or 16.9%. The company pays a dividend yield of 1.3% and its forward P/E is 9.7. Macy’s target price has risen about 2.9% since mid-October and its share price is up about 6% in the same period. Macy’s has also posted a new 52-week in the last five weeks, and the target price is still about 10% above that new high. Macy’s doubled EPS expectations in its most recent quarter, although gross margins fell -0.6%. The company’s high-end Bloomingdale’s stores should give it a boost through the holiday shopping season due to a significant expected increase in sales this year.

Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) has a median price target of $54.00 from 20 brokers. The current share price is $46.17, for a potential upside of $7.83, or 17%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2% and its forward P/E is 12.79. The company’s target price was raised nearly 2% since mid-October, but the share price today is about -7% lower than it was then. The company has posted a new 52-week high of $53.35 since mid-October, but is trading some -13% below that number today. Nordstrom missed sales estimates in the third quarter, although EPS was in-line. With other retailers looking more attractive, Nordstrom’s shortcomings are magnified.

Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) has a median price target of $62.00 from 19 brokers. The current share price is $54.42, for a potential upside of $7.58, or 13.9%. The company pays a dividend yield of 1.8% and its forward P/E is 10.33. Of the companies in this group, Kohl’s is the only one to have had its price target lowered. The drop was -11%, and still nearly 6.5% above the stock’s 52-week high. Kohl’s beat estimates for its third quarter and bumped its forecast numbers for the fourth quarter and the full year. Competition has got to be the reason for the lowered targets and the declining stock price.

Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) has a median target price of $28.00 from 18 brokers. The current share price is $26.35, for a potential upside of $1.65, or 6.3%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2.4%, and its forward P/E is 6.72. Best Buy’s target price has been lifted by about 3.7% since mid-October. The share price is also about 3% higher, but the stock is so far from its 52-week high of $45.63 that this is a case of being so far down that everything looks like up.

Surprisingly, perhaps, of the seven stocks in this group Walmart appears to offer the best chance of realizing the implied upside in its share price. A lot depends on the company’s ability to increase traffic in its US stores, and to make sure those customers buy something.

Paul Ausick

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY), Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), and Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) have already said they would kick-off the holiday shopping season at midnight Thursday. Walmart’s move to begin at 10 p.m. is very likely to alter those plans.

There are a couple of interesting twists here. First, the stores are already open on Thanksgiving, though most will have closed for the day by about 6 p.m. Walmart’s 24-hour stores will be open when the Black Friday event begins, perhaps preventing the kind of land-rush stampede that led to the death of an employee in 2008.

But the second twist is that Walmart and its competitors are already open 24/7/365 at their web sites. Walmart’s web site is the second-most visited retail site on the web, trailing only Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN). According to comScore, Amazon’s web sites pulled in close to 104 million unique visitors in September. Walmart pulled about 38 million and Target had about 26 million unique visitors during the month. No other bricks-and-mortar related sites appeared in the top 50.

The interesting point here is that what is now called Cyber Monday — the Monday after the Thanksgiving holiday weekend — has replaced Black Friday as the day when the most retail sales are made. Part of the reason for the shift to web shopping, particularly this year, is the increase of gift buying for one’s self. The reasoning is that people are tired of austerity, they’ve already cut back on spending for exchanging gifts, they look at the holidays as chance to spend without guilt, and who better to reward than themselves.

Whether or not shoppers appear in large numbers at the earlier start to Black Friday, retailers do get to count the added hours as part of that sales day. That will make the numbers look better, when it comes time to report sales and earnings. Retail sales are not expected to improve much over last year’s holiday season. Most estimates are less than 2%. Retailers have to scramble to get their share of an ever-smaller pie, and pumping up excitement for Black Friday may be a little harder this year if there is no “official” kick-off time.

The growth of e-commerce sales has made the Black Friday phenomena not much more than a remnant of our shared memory. The ritual is likely to continue for some years to come, but at some point retailers will acknowledge that they can make more sales with less hassle by expanding Cyber Monday to several days than by expanding Black Friday by a few hours.

Paul Ausick

Some stores that will, though, are reporting October same-store sales today, including Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Limited Brands, Inc. (NYSE: LTD), American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE: AEO), Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ), The Buckle, Inc. (NYSE: BKE), and Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA).

Costco reported an October same-store sales jump of 9%, and a total sales increase of 11%. For the first two months of its current quarter, Costco same-store sales have risen 10% and total sales are up 13%. In September, the company saw a same-store sales jump of 12%, indicating that October sales were, in fact, a bit slower. Analysts were expecting October sales to rise 9.2%.

Target’s same-store sales rose 3.3% in the month, nearly double the 1.7% increase the company posted in October 2010. That probably won’t be good enough, as analysts were expecting a rise of 4.2%.

Macy’s posted a 2.2% gain in October same-store sales, considerably below expectations of 3.6%. The company reports third-quarter earnings next week and said that it expects quarterly sales to rise 4%-4.5%, within its previous guidance.

Nordstrom posted a same-store sales gain in October of 5.4%, which did not meet analysts’ expectation of a 6.4% boost. The company reports third-quarter earnings next week, and is expected to post EPS of $0.58 on revenue of $2.36 billion.

J.C. Penney was expected to post a 1% gain in October same-store sales. Instead the company put up a -2.6% decline. Shares are down nearly -3% in the pre-market following the announcement.

Kohl’s reported a same-store sales jump of 3.9%, better than the expected 3.7%. The company also noted that it expected third-quarter EPS to be at the high end of previous guidance of $0./73-$0.79. The consensus analyst EPS estimate is $0.78.

Limited reported same-store sales up 6% in October, compared with an 11% rise in September. Analysts had been looking for a 6.2% rise in October sales. Despite the slight miss, the company raised its EPS guidance from $0.17-$0.22 to $0.22-$0-.24 for its third fiscal quarter, which ended in October. Limited reports third-quarter earnings on November 16th, and the consensus EPS estimate was $0.24, even before the company raised guidance.

American Eagle Outfitters reported third-quarter sales after markets closed yesterday. Same-store sales for the quarter rose 5%, compared with a rise of just 1% in the same period a year ago. Including the company’s online store, same-store sales rose 7% in the quarter. The company also narrowed its EPS guidance from a $0.22-$0.27 to $0.26-$0.27, well above the consensus estimate of $0.23. American Eagle will report third-quarter earnings on November 30th.

Zumiez reported same-store sales increased 3.3% in October and 6% for the quarter ended in October. For the month, analyst’s were expecting an increase of 2.8% in same-store sales. The company raised EPS guidance last month, and the consensus estimate is now $0.42.

The Buckle reported a same-store sales gain of 8.7% in October, and for the quarter, same-store sales are up 9.1%. The company smashed the Thomson Reuters estimate of a 6.3% October gain.

Wet Seal saw its sales in October drop -9.7%, distressingly far below the estimated drop of -1%. The company also lowered third-quarter EPS guidance from $0.05-$0.06 to $0.04. Shares are down more than -7% in the pre-market.

Paul Ausick