If you combine the losses in the major stocks around solar, wind, and other alternative energies, the losses are billions and billions of dollars in the American companies alone.  We have outlined the profile of each exchange traded fund and we have covered some of the losses elsewhere.  We have tracked 20 stocks in a portfolio over the last year in the alternative energy sector and it is shocking that only 4 of the 20 stocks are not down by more than 50% from their 52-week highs.  It is even worse that 10 of the 20 stocks are down by at least 70% from their 52-week highs if you include the implosions.

We used FinViz performance metrics for the returns, or a lack of returns.  We counted the assets under management directly from each ETF’s website, although we would note that outflows of assets have been seen on top of absolute losses in share price.

First Trust Global Wind Energy (AMEX: FAN) is full of mostly foreign issue holdings and even the king of wind power called Vestas in Europe only has about a 6% weighting with other names coming from Europe and China.  On Friday morning it was trading at $7.17 versus a 52-week range of $7.09 to $12.20.  The loss here over the last year is about 38%.  Assets under management: $24.8 million

First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index (NASDAQ: QCLN) is very thinly traded and at $10.10 on Friday it has a 52-week range of $9.00 to $17.02.  It aims to track the NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index and is supposed to invest at least 90% of assets in common stocks that comprise the index.  Some names are not exactly what investors might consider as green, but Cree, Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) and Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) are each weighted more than 7%.  The loss here is 36.6% over the last year.  Assets under management: $18.7 million

Guggenheim Solar (AMEX: TAN) is full of solar stocks which are both domestic and also trade as ADRs from foreign issues which you probably know well if you follow the solar sector.  It invests at least 90% of its assets in common stocks which make up the MAC Global Solar Energy Index.  At $22.77, the 52-week trading range is $22.00 to $88.70 and this has lost 69% over the last year.  Assets under management: $60.7 million

Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (AMEX: KWT) is also full of solar stocks, but many do not trade in the United States.  The Van Eck Global ETF aims to track the Ardour Solar Energy Index and puts at least 80% of its assets into common stocks in the index.  At $3.39 it has a 52-week range of $3.29 to $13.08 and this one is down 69.9% from a year ago. Assets under management: $12.7 million

PowerShares Global Wind Energy (NASDAQ: PWND) is thinly traded and aims to track the NASDAQ OMX Clean Edge Global Wind Energy Index.  The ETF is full of companies which are not US-based and which are not even traded in the U.S. markets. The top 5 names account for more than 40% weighting and the names are China Longyuan Power Group, EDP Renovaveis, ENEL Green Power, Vestas Wind Systems, and China High Speed Transmission Equipment.  At $6.49, its 52-week range is $6.41 to $11.29, and the shares are down 40.8% from a year ago. Assets under management: $13.4 million

PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (AMEX: PBW) invests in all forms of clean energy and invests in companies globally.  Eight of ten of its largest weightings do trade in the U.S. and it invests 80% of its assets into common stocks in the WilderHill Clean Energy Index.  At $5.15 it has a 52-week trading range of $4.80 to $10.38 and it is down over 46% over the last year.  Assets under management: $181.1 million

The only good news about the current value of more than $300 million ETFs above is that they have at least not fallen anywhere near as much as some of the key companies which Americans have tried to invest their retirement and speculative money in.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is down over 84% over the last year and it still has a market value of $1.8 billion.  The loss here is about $8 billion over the last year in what is supposed to be America’s best solar bet.  First Solar generated $2.76 billion in sales in 2011.  It is currently among the worst stock charts in technology.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) received a huge purchase of a majority stake by Total but that has not kept its shares from sliding and sliding.  At $5.62, its 52-week range is $4.94 to $22.36, and shares are down over 63% over the last year and Total is down probably about 70% in value on this one.  Its market value is now barely $650 million but it generated over $2.1 billion in sales in 2011.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is down 69% over the last year and at $3.50 its 52-week range is $3.31 to $12.00.  Its market value is still more than $800 million and its total revenue in 2011 was $2.71 billion.  The loss is far worse when you consider that this was a $90 stock at the peak of the alternative energy and oil boom in 2008.

The losses here have been in the billions and it only scratches the surface on the alternative energy sector losses.  This takes no consideration of the disappearance of Evergreen Solar, Energy Conversion, Solyndra, and Solar Trust.  This also skips over the ethanol losses as well. We do not want to only seem one-sided here even if billions upon billions of real money has been lost in the alternative energy sector that is reminiscent of the losses after the dot-com bubble burst a decade ago.  Some of the blame may be austerity and Chinese dumping, but investor losses do not come with an asterisk in the monthly statements.

The losses in alternative energy are massive, but oil companies have generated trillions of dollars in sales. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is worth $401 billion in market value and sales for all of 2011 were $486.4 billion.  Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is worth about $203 billion in market value and it generated $253.7 billion in sales in 2011.  This also marks the two-year anniversary of the BP PLC (NYSE: BP) oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and BP generated the equivalent of $375 billion in sales in 2011.

It is sad to make jokes about losses this big, but a couple quickly come to mind:

• Alternative energy stocks and ETFs have turned 401K plans into 201K or 101K plans.
• How do make a small fortune? Take a large fortune and buy some alternative energy funds.

JON C. OGG

Solar makers are trying to stage a recovery.  First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is the leader of the pack in quality and operations and its shares are up about 9% at $42.30 versus a 52-week trading range of $29.87 to $175.45.  Even more impressive is the move in shares of MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) with a 17% gain to $4.58 versus a 52-week range of $3.65 to $15.04.  Even the Guggenheim Solar (NYSE: TAN) ETF and the Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) are surging.  We are paying close attention to SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), Yingli Green Energy Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) and others as well.  Here are the other movers with relative prices to their 52-week highs:

• SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is up 9.5% at $7.33, down from a year high of $23.36;
• Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is up a whopping 25% at $3.22 versus a year high of $10.83;
• Yingli Green Energy Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) is up 17% at $4.85 versus a year high of $13.59;
• LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is up 11.3% at $5.21 against a high of $14.97 in the last year, although it is easy to stick by the guns that LDK is mathematically bankrupt without the coverage of the Chinese government.
• Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) is up 23% at $0.38 against a high of $4.80 but this is one still is unlikely to survive 2012.

In the world of ETFs, these are running as well: Guggenheim Solar (NYSE: TAN) is up 10.5% at $2.95 versus a high of $9.16 and Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) is up 11.5% at $4.45.  The more diversified alt-energy ETF of PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) is up less than all of these with gains of 4.8% at $5.65.

Before getting too euphoric keep in mind that this is not unusual at the start of a year or new period where sector rotation favors the most beaten up sector.  Besides that, there is always the political angle on the solar sector that is front and center in the elections this year.

What we do know within reason is simple: solar PV unit prices cannot drop by another 50% or so in 2012.  If pricing has bottomed, perhaps these value traps may get to migrate to value stocks after all.  We still expect margin pressure, austerity, and a lack of the ability to pay dividends to all equal concerns of PV panel dumping by Chinese firms leading to a virtual race toward zero.

If you want to know just how big this news is, the S&P Utility Sector was the best performing sector in all of 2011 and its gains were not quite 15%.  To prove the point, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU) ETF rose by 19% in 2011 if you adjust for the dividend payments as so many utilities offer investors dividend yields of 4% and higher.

JON C. OGG

Don’t bother telling the solar woes to Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and to KKR & Co. L.P. (NYSE: KKR).  The two companies announced that they would invest a total of $189 million on a combined basis domestically in solar facilities.  Some $94 million will be invested by Google to fund four California solar farms which are being constructed near Sacramento.  KKR’s $95 million investment is said to include new unannounced projects as well as the  Sacramento projects.  Sharp Corporation’s Recurrent Energy is selling the existing projects.

It is easy to bash solar stocks right now because their losses have been beyond what most could conceive.  Still, Warren Buffet’s MidAmerican Energy under Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A), NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG), and others have continued to invest.  What is interesting is that it is currently one of the best times to invest in solar projects, as long as your financial lifeline is not dependent upon the margins of manufacturing the solar panels.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) might be building a large Arizona desert solar farm but the company has proven that it is far from immune to the woes of the sector.  Whether or not the mandated California utility one-third renewable goal by 2020 can help is so far not helping these companies out.

The good news for solar power buyers is that there are still some financial incentives and panel prices have tanked.  Europe is in austerity-hell that is keeping its solar ambitions lower and China has been flooding the market with cheap solar panels (are those knock-off solar panels?).

Google’s side-bar projects do not have to have the same return as its search business, but the Internet search giant has now committed close to $1 billion into various forms of clean energy investing.  Roughly half appears to be in solar of some sort.

To show just how brutal the solar investing has been, take a look at the two key solar ETF products.  The TAN Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) trades at $2.71 and the 52-week trading range is $2.54 to $9.16; and the Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) trades at $3.89 versus a 52-week range is $3.64 to $14.33.

JON C. OGG

Other solar stocks making news this week included SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA), Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL), LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK), JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL), MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (NYSE: WFR), and Yingli Green Energy Holdings (NYSE: YGE).

An analyst at Jefferies raised First Solar shares from ‘Hold’ to ‘Buy’ and raised the company’s target price from $115 to $132. That indicates that First Solar has finally managed to make investors understand that explosive growth is no longer in the cards, but that steadier growth is. The company’s project pipeline and its low-cost leadership in the sector position First Solar well for the relatively austere days ahead.

SunPower did not fare as well. The company lowered its profit forecast as a result of eroding prices for solar panels. JA Solar, Trina, and MEMC have given similar warnings.

ReneSola reported earnings on Wednesday and revenues fell more than -30% from the same period a week ago, again driven by falling gross margins. The company also shipped less product year-over-year by -10%. Even worse, the company’s forecast for gross margins in the third quarter are just 6%-8%, down dreadfully from second-quarter gross margins of 18.4%. In the first quarter the company’s gross margins were 28.2%.

Renesola had already announced the day before that it plans to grow production capacity by a factor of three next year and to cut its raw materials costs by producing some silicon wafers of its own. The overall effect of the two announcements lifted Renesola shares by about 30% between Monday’s opening price and Friday’s quote at around noon.

MEMC got a boost from a report of insider buying of the company’s stock. The CEO and five more company officers bought more than 450,000 shares on August 5th. The news hit the market on August 9th, and the shares jumped 19%.

If in fact First Solar has finally been able to manage investor expectations for the company’s shares, we should soon be able to see some firming up for the other solar players. SunPower shares are down about -5% for the week primarily on the company’s weaker outlook and the fact that it faces the most challenges to its margins. Until the company can show that it has its costs under control the shares are likely to continue to see-saw at best.

The Chinese solar makers face a similar margin compression problem, and Trina and LDK are also dealing with some questions about their accounting practices. It’s difficult to believe that anything but hope for these stocks is what is giving them a share-price boost. LDK’s shares are up nearly 20% on the week for no apparent reason, and JA Solar’s shares are also up about 12%. The only explanation for these increases in share price is that investors still treat the sector monolithicly, believing that good news or performance or expectations for one company washes through the whole sector. Once that belief is finally put to rest, the Chinese solar stocks will at last find a proper level of expectation. And that level is very likely going to be lower than it is now.

For the week ahead, First Solar could well continue gathering momentum. The company has received approval to begin construction on its Desert Sunlight project in southern California, and it is still waiting for a final decision on a $1.88 billion loan guarantee for the project. That approval, when it comes, will give the company another shot in the arm.

The two main ETFs that follow the solar sector are the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) and the Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT). TAN has gained about 9% on the week and KWT is up about 11%. Both are thinly traded and are currently posting a negative return for the year to date. But both are up more than 2% today, with TAN at $5.73 in a 52-week range of $5.08-$9.34 and KWT at $8.29 in a 52-week range of $6.97-$14.33.

Paul Ausick

First Solar is expected to report EPS of $0.92 on revenue of $584 million. Last quarter the company posted EPS of $1.33. Chinese producer Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) today named a new CFO and also reported that its gross margins for the second quarter would be at the lower end of its outlook. LDK Solar Inc. (NYSE: LDK) and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) have also recently replaced CFOs as a variety of accounting issues have begun to plague Chinese solar makers.

Solar producers make up a significant portion of the investments in several clean energy ETFs. These funds include the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN), the iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index (NYSE: ICLN), the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBW), the PowerShares Global Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBD), the PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio (NYSE: PZD), and the Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT).

The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) holds about $150 million in total assets, and First Solar is its largest holding, at more than 19%. Trina and SunPower Corp. account for another 9% of holdings. Year to date the best performers in the fund have been GT Solar International, Inc. and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd., neither of which makes modules. First Solar has lost more than -4.5% of its value so far this year, while GT Solar is up more than 66% and GCL-Poly is up more than 52%. LDK Solar (-28.36%), Canadian (-22.28%), and Trina (-16.14%) indicate the direction of Chinese solar makers’ shares. So far this year the fund is down -6.3%.

The iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index (NYSE: ICLN) holds total assets of $67 million, but unlike TAN the fund invests in non-solar as well as solar stocks. The fund’s three largest holdings are First Solar, GT Solar, and Trina. Year to date the fund is off nearly -2%. Nearly a third of the fund’s holdings are in solar-related stocks.

The PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBW) holds total assets of about $415 million. The fund recently replaced First Solar as its top holding with Emcore Corp., a maker of solar cells and concentrating solar PV systems. Like ICLN, this fund is diversified throughout the clean energy sector, but year-to-date results have been poor, down -15.5%.

The PowerShares Global Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBD) is an equal weighted fund that holds about $180 million in assets among nearly 100 stocks, none of which accounts for more than 2% of holdings. The fund is down more than -5% so far this year.

The PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio (NYSE: PZD) holds about $148 million in total assets. The fund is styled as a mid-cap growth fund and includes 71 stocks spread across the spectrum of clean energy development. First Solar is the only solar PV maker in its top 20 holdings. Year to date the fund has returned 6.7%.

The Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) is the newest and smallest of these clean energy funds. Assets total $25 million, and like TAN, the fund is narrowly focused on the solar sector. First Solar is the funds top holding at nearly 11%, followed by GT Solar. Trina and Suntech are among the top 10, which account for 64% of holdings. So far this year the fund is down more than -9%.

The solar sector is currently struggling with excess capacity, shrinking margins, and lower government subsidies. Many of the China-based companies are also plagued with accounting issues, raising questions about the companies’ financial footings.

Even if First Solar reports an outstanding second quarter (not terribly likely), the effect on the sector and on the ETFs that are heavily invested in solar stocks ought to remain muted.

Paul Ausick

Solar PV makers First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA), LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) need some good news. Since the beginning of the year, all these stocks have lost value, with the single of exception of SunPower, which is riding its change of control to Total SA (NYSE: TOT).

The sector has been hit with rapidly expanding capacity and falling government incentives, a deadly combination for an industry that has enjoyed relatively high margins for years due to a shortage of capacity and generous subsidies. Solar PV capacity is expected to grow by more than 100% in 2011, to somewhere around 40,000 megawatts. At the end of this year, capacity is expected to outstrip demand by about 30%.

That means falling prices. Combine that with falling subsidies in Germany and Italy, and the outlook for solar PV has dimmed considerably. Recent announcements by both Germany and Italy that no new nuclear plants will be built in either country, and that Germany will in fact de-commission all its nukes by 2022, have put a little enthusiasm back in the sector. But it’s not enough to turn things around and a big boost in US installations won’t make much difference either.

Germany added 7,000 megawatts of solar PV in 2010, but that total is expected to drop to 5,00-6,000 megawatts in 2011. Italy has capped new installations at 8,000 megawatts. A jump of 250 megawatts annually in the US is not a game-changer.

It’s also worth noting that US solar PV installations topped 360 megawatts in the fourth quarter of 2010. The 252 megawatts installed in the first quarter represents a sequential drop of -30%. Not so hot.

Share prices are reacting positively to the news this morning though. Shares of First Solar are up more than 0.6%, to $117.55, in a 52-week range of $111.40-$175.45. Low-cost maker crystalline solar PV maker JA Solar is up around 1.5%, to $5.33, in a 52-week range of $4.48-$10.24. Trina Solar, another low-cost maker, is up more than 2.6%, to $20.31, in a 52-week range of $17.00-$31.89. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) is up about 0.75%, to $6.75, in a 52-week range of $6.40-$9.34 and the Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) is up about 1.5%, to $10.16, in a 52-week range of $9.60-$14.33.

Paul Ausick

In addition to the PowerShares fund, we’ll take a quick look here at the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN), Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (NYSE: GEX), iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index Fund (NASDAQ: ICLN), and Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT).

PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) is a non-diversified index tracker. The largest of its 58 holdings is SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA) at 3%, followed by Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), GT Solar International Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR), Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (NYSE: SQM), and Polypore International Inc. (NYSE: PPO). The fund’s market value is $448.7 million, and its 52-week range is $7.98-$11.42. PBW’s NAV is 9.00.

Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) invests at least 90% of its assets in  stocks included in the MAC Global Solar Energy Index. It’s top five holdings are First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) at 14.38%, Hong-Kong listed GCL Poly Energy Holdings Ltd. at 8.99%, Meyer Burger Technology AG (OTC: MYBUF), Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) at 5.3%, and SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA). Assets under management total $165.2 million and the NAV at June 7th was $7.12. The 52-week range is $6.12-$9.16.

Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (NYSE: GEX) tracks the price and yield performance of the Ardour Global Index, and invests at least 80% of assets in stocks included in that index. The fund’s top five holdings are First Solar at 8.8%, Vestas at 8.37%, Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) at 6.21%, Enel Green Power SpA at 6.1%, and Iberdrola Renovables SA at 5.73%. The fund has $140.3 million of assets under management and its NAV is $19.22. The shares’ 52-week range is $17.81-$22.76.

iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index Fund (NASDAQ: ICLN) tracks the price and yield performance of the S&P Global Clean Energy Index. The top five holdings are Germany’s Verbund AG (OTC: OEZVF) at 5.58%, Iberdrola Renovables at 5.47%, Empresa Nacional de Electricidad S.A. (NYSE: EOC) at 5.46%, China Longyuan at 5.44%, and SunPower at 5.4%. The fund’s net assets total $71.1 million and the NAV is $16.54. The shares’ 52-week range is $14.09-$19.00.

Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) is an index tracker for solar energy companies. It’s top five holdings are First Solar at 9.54%, MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) at 8.89%, Trina at 8.54%, SunPower at 6.35%, and Norway’s Renewable Energy Corp. ASA at 6.07%. The fund’s assets under management total just $29 million and its NAV is $10.55. The shares’ 52-week range is $9.04-$14.33.

Many of these funds (and their components) are down considerably and they are down so much against the 2008 peak-energy highs that many investors would rather not be reminded.  24/7 Wall St. has maintained for quite some time that many alternative energy investments may really just be leveraged oil bets in disguise.  These have not even lived up to that universally when oil rose.  Now investors will hope that the decommissioning of nuclear plants can be the next frontier for growth.  If not, global austerity measures may force solar projects to actually be evaluated on their real underlying costs basis just like other projects.

Paul Ausick

Another eSolar investor is Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which made an initial $10 million investment in the solar firm in 2008. Google has also put $168 million into another solar thermal maker, BrightSource Energy, Inc., which recently filed for an IPO.

The idea behind GE’s investment and its ISCC technology is to leverage its new FlexEfficiency 50 gas-fired, 510-megawatt power plant design. The company introduced the new plant last month as a fast-reacting plant that could be used in conjunction with wind- or solar-powered generation to smooth out the intermittent nature of those forms of power production.

GE claims a 61% thermal efficiency for its FlexEffiency generator operating by itself and a 70% thermal efficiency when integrated with eSolar’s high-temperature tower design.

Due to the intermittent nature of solar generation, utility-scale solar thermal and solar PV installations couldn’t be relied upon to deliver baseload generation. The eSolar/GE ISCC technology seeks to change that. eSolar’s thermal tower would generate electricity when the sun is shining, and the GE gas-fired plant would generate electricity at night or when clouds hide the sun.

eSolar’s Sierra SunTower project is designed to generate 5 megawatts of electricity from 20 acres of land in southern California. In order to justify the cost of adding the GE FlexEfficiency plant, the solar project would need to be 100 times larger. For 500 megawatts, the solar plant would require 2,000 acres, or more than 3 square miles. The Ivanpah project that BrightSource plans to build in southern California’s Mojave Desert will generate 392 megawatts on 3,600 acres, or nearly 6 square miles of land.

The acres required to build these solar thermal plants virtually guarantee that none will be built anywhere near population centers. The plants will be scattered around the sunlit southwestern US, where environmental issues related to the delicate desert ecosystem could delay or kill any project. BrightSource continues to have difficulties getting a construction permit because of a threat to a rare desert tortoise.

When GE announced its new plant the company also said that it would introduce them first in Europe. GE said that regulatory uncertainty and lack of demand for new gas-fired generation were the reasons for going first to Europe. A better reason may be that in some European countries, like Denmark, the small gas-fired plants may be readily accepted because of a country’s experience with distributed generation.

In the US, baseload power generation tends to come from large coal-fired plants. Changing that model will take time, and probably lots of it. GE has the resources to experiment, and the experiments will go beyond large solar thermal installations. These may be good places to start, but it is unlikely that solar thermal towers is where the ISCC technology will end.

Solar ETFs Guggenheim Solar (NYSE: TAN) and Market Vectors Solar Energy (NYSE: KWT) are both up more than 10% over the past twelve months, but since late April each has lost more than -5%. TAN is up less than 1% today, at $7.07, in a 52-week range of $6.02-$9.34. KWT is up about 2%, to $10.55, in a 52-week range of $9.04-$14.33.

Paul Ausick

Nuclear related shares are getting pounded now as politicians and activist groups are calling for a significantly geared down approach to nuclear approach now.  So who wins?  Think solar.  Solar power plants melting down only causes black goo on the ground.  Coal… who cares if it is dirty at this point compared to nuclear fallout.  Wind and other alternative energy… Same for solar.  Natural gas is back… Many power plants run on this, and if nuclear power gets curbed too much ahead then natural gas is going to benefit just like coal does.  Here are eight ETFs that are trading higher as a direct result of the Japan quake knocking out the nuclear sector.  Oh year, a “Short Japan Fund”…

Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL) is up 1.75% at $47.01 against a 52-week range of $28.35 to $49.80.

Guggenheim Solar (NYSE: TAN) is up 6.3% at $7.83 against a 52-week trading range of $6.02 to $9.34. There is also the  Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) up 7.1% at $12.39 against a 52-week trading range of $9.04 to $14.33. PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW) is up 0.9% at $10.00 against a 52-week range of $4.00 (low from Flash Crash) to $11.42.

ProShares UltraShort MSCI Japan (NYSE: EWV) is up a whopping 15.6% at $39.30 against a 52-week range of $29.83 to $52.78… This one is 200% the inverse of the daily performance of the MSCI Japan Index.

United States Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG) is now up only 0.25% at $10.42 but this one was up as high as $10.78 earlier today.  The iPath DJ-UBS Natural Gas TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: GAZ) is also now ‘only’ up 0.57% at $7.09 but it was up as high as $7.31 earlier today.  Finally, the Teucrium Natural Gas ETV (NYSE: NAGS) is still up 3.1% at $22.97 but this one has extremely thin trading volume. 

Japan is one of those situations that is unfolding as a tragedy and it will have an impact on GDP ahead.  These are just the financial winners in exchange-traded products as far as what the stock market vote is today.

JON C. OGG

First Solar is roughly 11% of the key solar ETF in the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (NYSE: TAN), and that is down 3.7% at $8.32 in the after-hours session.  The Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSE: KWT) is much thinner in trading volume and is indicated lower without much volume, but First Solar is about 8.6% of its weighting.  Many have hoped for a recovery in Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER), but that is down almost 4% at $11.02 in the after-hours session and that is on the heels of a 4.5% drop during the normal trading session.

The solar leader issued guidance that is very disappointing to many of the solar bulls.  Q4 revenue guidance is $550 million to $600 million vs. $534.48 million expected by Thomson Reuters.  The new 2009 revenue range is $1.975 billion to $2.025 billion.  That is at the higher-end of a prior target from the company and just meets a $2.00 billion Thomson Reuters consensus target at the mid-point.

There are other negatives here.  The company says that its module pricing for 2010 is unclear and it still sees a potential change for solar business in Germany in 2010.  Also noted was Ontario requiring significant local content.

The company has a new CEO, Robert Gillette.  None of today’s woes are Mr. Gillette’s fault nor his problem.  He is taking over after years of unfettered growth and at a time when industry margins are contracting and as sector orders are getting more and more competitive.

It is very possible that tomorrow’s trading will be different than the after-hours session today after analysts and traders break these numbers down with the full impact.  But this trades now at over 6-times expected revenues and trades at roughly 20-times 2009 earnings.  At least that was before the near-15% drop to $129.00 in the after-hours session.

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 28, 2009