For China-based firms, the percentage of shares short is not available because the companies are also listed on other exchanges.

Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) saw short interest rise by 8.3% to 2.08 million shares, about 6.8% of the company’s total float.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) short interest drop by 7.4% to 17.07 million shares, which represents 28.1% of the company’s float.

GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: GTAT) showed an increase of 8% in short interest to 41.34 million shares, about 34.9% of GT’s float.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) showed an increase of 8% in short interest to 16.88 million shares, or about 7.3% of MEMC’s float.

SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) saw short interest rise by 4.1% to 9.52 million shares, or 23.9% of the company’s total float.

JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) showed a drop of 17% in short interest to 2.21 million shares.

LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK) saw short interest fall by 11.9% to 3.03 million shares.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) showed a rise of 11.2% in short interest to 18.46 million shares.

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) saw a short interest decline of 2.3% to 15.79 million shares.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) showed a drop of 0.3% in short interest to 7.51 million shares.

In the prior two-week period, Yingli’s short interest rose by 50%. In the most recent two weeks, the very modest rise appears to have drawn a line on just how bad investors think the company’s prospects are. The decline in short interest in LDK is likely due to a lack of fallout from its missed debt repayment. The company may be able to hold on, but that is still questionable. So far the government has not ridden to the rescue for either company, but the thinking may be that it is about to do so.

When First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) reported first-quarter 2013 results after the markets closed last night, investors did not know whether to cheer or boo. Share prices rose and fell and rose again in after-hours trading. But the verdict appears to be in this morning, as the stock is down about 9% after posting a new 52-week high yesterday.

Shares of First Solar jumped 27% in one day early last month following the company’s upward revision of it fiscal year 2013 guidance. The company guided revenues and EPS well higher, and last night reaffirmed that guidance. But the damage had been done.

SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR), lately the darling of the solar sector, is down more than 5% today. The Chinese solar makers are faring worse perhaps. LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is down nearly 6%, JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS) is down more than 6% and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) is down more than 3%.

First Solar’s CEO tried to put a positive spin on first quarter results by focusing on the company’s project pipeline. But when asked how much of that pipeline could be expected to be converted into booked orders, he said, “It’s future opportunities, it’s not really capable of that kind of analysis.”

Investors have made up their own minds about those “future opportunities,” not just at First Solar but at the other solar makers as well: those opportunities are at least partially wishful thinking. How big a part remains to be seen, but it seems pretty clear that SunPower’s results, posted last week, are destined to be the top of the market for solar stocks for at least another quarter or two.

Except for Canadian Solar — which, despite its name, is a Chinese firm — the majority of news from Chinese solar energy firms has been somewhere between bad and awful. Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) has filed for bankruptcy, LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) has missed a debt repayment, and the list could go on.

Analyst upgrades, including one today from R.W. Baird, to ‘outperform’ are pushing SunPower’s shares higher. The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter have risen by $0.15 a share, from a net loss of $0.09 to a profit of $0.06 per share. SunPower has beat EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters and posted a profit in each of the last three quarters.

SunPower, which majority owned by France’s oil supermajor Total SA (NYSE: TOT) is expected to do well in the Japanese solar energy market as the country continues to rebuild its electricity generating infrastructure following the Fukushima disaster. At least one estimate puts Japan ahead of every other country except China in new solar installations during 2013. A generous subsidy in the form of a feed-in tariff for large projects and good incentives to encourage roof-top installations.

One possible brake on SunPower’s expected growth in Japan is stiff competition from Japanese solar panel makers Kyocera Corp. (NYSE: KYO) and Sharp Corp. Japanese consumers have shown a distinct preference for Japanese-made modules and panels.

Shares of SunPower are up 9% in the mid-afternoon today, at $13.24 after posting a new 52-week high of $13.90 earlier. The 52-week low is $3.71. Just a reminder: in 2011 Total paid $23.25 a share for its 60% stake in SunPower.

In the Chinese solar sector we tracked the following short interest changes: JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE). For China-based firms, the percentage of shares short is not available because the companies are also listed on other exchanges.

Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) saw short interest drop by 4.8% to 1.92 million shares, about 6.4% of the company’s total float.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) short interest rise by 12.2% to 18.43 million shares, which represents 30.6% of the company’s float.

GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: GTAT) showed a decrease of 5.6% in short interest, to 38.29 million shares, about 32.3% of GT’s float.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) showed an increase of 1.4% in short interest, to 15.62 million shares, about 6.8% of MEMC’s float.

SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) saw short interest jump by 33.1% to 9.15 million shares, 23% of the company’s total float.

JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) showed a drop of 16.3% in short interest, to 2.66 million shares.

LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK) saw short interest rise by 0.8% to 3.44 million shares.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) showed a rise of 16.6% in short interest, to 16.6 million shares.

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) saw short interest decline of 15.6% to 16.15 million shares.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) showed a rise of 50.9% in short interest, to 7.53 million shares.

Short interest is piling up in Yingli as the company looks like the next casualty among the Chinese solar energy players. LDK is teetering on the brink of disaster already, having missed a debt repayment last week. The big thing weighing down both these firms is that it appears that China’s central government will not rescue either of them. Both Trina Solar and JA Solar are better capitalized and could muddle through without government assistance.

The sharp increase in short interest in SunPower could rise even more during these two weeks, if the share price continues to rise. The company is tagging along on the boost in First Solar’s share price and there is no fundamental reason for SunPower stock to keep rising. The company is scheduled to report earnings on May 6.

The story only gets worse. According to a report at China’s caijing.com, LDK’s debt now totals $5.4 billion. Most of that is owed to the Chinese Development Bank (CDB), which in September of 2010 approved an $8.9 billion five-year loan package for LDK Solar. China’s state-controlled banks are famous for their forgiving attitude toward feckless borrowers and may yet ride to LDK Solar’s rescue.

But investors should not count on it. The CDB also pumped $7.3 billion in loans into Suntech Power at the same time it approved the LDK Solar loans and did nothing to prevent Suntech’s fall into bankruptcy earlier this year. LDK Solar, like Suntech, has no hope of repaying its massive debt.

Fourth-quarter sales at LDK Solar totaled just $136 million and gross margins rose to a negative 60.5%. The net loss came to $517 million. There is no hope that the company can turn that around enough to survive.

Solar panel maker Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) scored a total of $165 million in new loans from the CDB last week, but that is not likely to have much impact on the company’s fortunes going forward. Yingli Green Energy could be the next in line for a nosedive into bankruptcy.

Can any of China’s solar energy companies survive? One likely possibility is JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS), which has less debt and is better capitalized than any of the others. But the CDB and other of China’s state-controlled banks, not the equity markets, will be picking the winners here. A word to the wise.

The fundamentals of the solar panel business were no different yesterday than they were a week or a month ago nor are they different today. What’s different is the way First Solar will count its revenue. How an accounting change at First Solar can help SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Yingli Green Energy Co. Inc. (NYSE: YGE), or any of the other solar makers is a mystery.

At First Solar, the decision to recognize revenue sooner rather than later helps 2013’s expected results. But nothing has changed in the marketplace. And First Solar’s plans to cut costs and boost margins might work and it might not. Nor will governments ride to the rescue again with improved subsidies. Those days are behind us.

JinkoSolar’s quarterly net loss per American Depositary Shares (ADS) doubled from a year ago, even though the company managed to pull its gross margins back into positive territory. This Chinese solar maker’s results are far more representative of the state of the industry than yesterday’s presentation from First Solar.

Shares of JinkoSolar are down 6.7% today at $5.41 in a 52-week range of $2.00 to $10.07.

Shares of First Solar are also down, by 5.1% at $37.33 in a 52-week range of $11.43 to $41.00.

In the Chinese solar sector we tracked the following short interest changes: JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE).

For China-based firms, the percentage of shares short is not available because the companies are also listed on other exchanges.

Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) saw short interest drop by 6% to 2.02 million shares, which is about 6.6% of the company’s total float.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) short interest fell by 10.8% to 16.43 million shares, which represents 27.3% of the company’s float.

GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: GTAT) showed an increase of 0.8% in short interest to 40.57 million shares, about 34.3% of GT’s float.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) showed a decline of 6.4% in short interest to 15.41 million shares, about 6.7% of MEMC’s float.

SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) saw short interest fall by 17.6% to 6.87 million shares, or 17.3% of the company’s total float.

JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) showed a drop of 6.1% in short interest to 3.18 million shares.

LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK) saw short interest rise by 0.2% to 3.42 million shares.

Short interest in Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) declined 45.3% to 14.24 million shares.

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) saw short interest retreat 0.7% to 19.14 million shares.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) showed a short interest drop of 11.9% to 4.99 million shares.

Suntech’s bankruptcy filing in the second half of March cooled the ardor of short sellers for the Chinese solar stocks. Instead of piling in, short interest either declined or rose modestly in all the Chinese stocks.

The next report on short interest should reverse what we have seen today. First Solar gave the entire sector a lift yesterday when it boosted its outlook for 2013 and share prices rose dramatically. Anyone caught short yesterday in any solar stock very likely got a bad sunburn. But nothing much has really changed in the sector: module prices are a little more stable but remain low, and government support for solar installations is not growing. Look for the shorts to wade back in.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR)) is up 45.5% at $39.35.

Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (NYSEMKT: ANV) is up 30.3% at $15.36.

GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: GCAP) is up 26% at $5.38.

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is up 24.3% at $1.33.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) is up 21.1% at $2.24.

And here are today’s five biggest losing stocks at closing:

BSD Medical Corp. (NASDAQ: BSDM) is down 29.1% at $1.17.

Kid Brands Inc. (NYSE: KID) is down 16.3% at $1.18.

Affymetrix Inc. (NASDAQ: AFFY) is down 13.7% at $4.02.

American Spectrum Realty Inc. (NYSEMKT: AQQ) is down 13.7% at $2.71.

A. Schulman Inc. (NASDAQ: SHLM) is down 12.8% at $25.93.

In the past three years, some 40 China-based firms have announced deals to take the company private and nearly half the deals have been backed by private equity firms. One of the largest is the $3.7 billion deal to take private China’s premier display advertising firm, Focus Media Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: FMCN). The Carlyle Group L.P. (NASDAQ: CG) is joining with the company’s CEO in the buyout.

Other recent take-private deals include one for Zhongpin Inc. (NASDAQ: HOGS) and another for fertilizer maker Yongye International Inc. (NASDAQ: YONG). Zhongpin’s chairman is taking the company private on his own, and Yongye’s CEO is getting help from a branch of Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS). Carlyle Group is also involved in going-private deal worth $688 million for 7 Days Group Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: SNN). Chinese pharmaceutical maker Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (NYSE: SCR) also got an offer from its chairman to take the drug maker private.

One question follows from all this activity: what about China’s struggling solar makers? Now that Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is no longer a factor, it is interesting to speculate on the possibility of a take-private deal for one of the other solar players. Names that spring immediately to mind are LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL), Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) and ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL).

LDK has issued 12 million newly minted shares to Fulai Investments, giving the firm about 11% of the company. A state-controlled firm owns another 20% of LDK. With a current total market cap of just $141 million, LDK would seem ripe for a take-private deal, especially after shedding one of its largest plants to a provincial government. A government-engineered takeover is more likely here due to the government’s heavy involvement with LDK already.

Trina is one of the companies expected to get some benefit from the downfall of Suntech. The company says it will meet $83.5 million loan payment due July 15. There has been no indication that Trina is being targeted for a take-private deal, but with a market cap of around $260 million the opportunity is there.

Canadian Solar, with a market cap of just $150 million, could be another take-private candidate. The company has a solar installation business, and that promises to help make up for the low prices for wafers and modules. Earlier this year the company got a $40 million loan from Credit Suisse to acquire four projects in Ontario.

ReneSola just received a $51 million loan from a Chinese government-controlled bank, and with a market cap below $125 million, this one is the cheapest of the bunch. But again, the government stake in ReneSola is a negative to taking the company private.

Perhaps the biggest issue with taking a solar company — or any other for that matter — private is how good the chances are that the company can be floated to the public again. No private equity fund is going to bail in to a deal without a clear plan for bailing out. There are not likely to be a lot more buyers for solar makers in another two or three years.

For founders and company executives, taking a Chinese firm private could be a matter of pride. Because these are the very guys who drove the companies to the brink of extinction in the first place, partnering with them seems needlessly risky. Suggestions that firms might consolidate also are unlikely to get much traction in China, again mainly as a matter of pride.

As with so many things in China, the government likely will be responsible for picking winners and losers in the solar business. The government surely could have rescued Suntech, but chose not to. On that basis, the loan to ReneSola is encouraging for that firm.

From here, though, LDK continues to look like the next target, and it will not be a buyout but a government takeover in some form. Trying a merger arbitrage play here, just in case a buyer should pop up, could be a safe bet with some possible upside if the government eventually does ride to the rescue.

In the Chinese solar sector we tracked the following short interest changes: JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE).

For China-based firms, the percentage of shares short is not available because the companies are also listed on other exchanges.

Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) saw short interest rise 0.5% to 2.15 million shares. That is 7.1% of the company’s total float.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) short interest rose by 3.7% to 18.42 million shares, which represents 30.6% of the company’s float.

GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: GTAT) showed an increase of 5.2% in short interest, to 40.25 million shares, or about 33.9% of GT’s float.

Short interest in MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) declined 1.7% to 16.46 million shares, about 7.2% of MEMC’s float.

SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) saw short interest fall by 16% to 8.34 million shares, or 21% of the company’s total float.

JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) showed an increase of 0.7% in short interest, to 3.38 million shares.

LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK) saw short interest decline of 3.9% to 3.41 million shares.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) had a drop of 8.6% in short interest, to 26.03 million shares.

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) saw short interest rise of 1.5% to 19.28 million shares.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) showed a drop of 0.2% in short interest, to 5.66 million shares.

The bankruptcy filing by Suntech happened after March 15, so any impact on other solar players has not shown up yet. JA Solar got a reprieve shortly after the Suntech fiasco, and it looks like both Trina and Yingli will make it through the shakeout in Chinese solar stocks. LDK Solar remains the weakest of the current survivors.