Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) Started as Overweight and $46 target at JPMorgan.
E*TRADE Financial (NASDAQ: ETFC) Started as Market Perform and $1.70 Target at KBW.
Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) Cut to Underweight at Barclays.
Human Genome Sciences (NASDAQ: HGSI) Resumed at Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
LDK Solar Co.Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) Cut to Underweight at Barclays.
Lifepoint Hospitals (NASDAQ: LPNT) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: MWW) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
PNC Financial (NYSE: PNC) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein.
Skyworks Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ: SWKS) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) Cut to Equal Weight at Barclays.
Vishay Intertechnology Inc. (NYSE: VSH) Cut to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.

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JON C. OGG

We have been expecting consolidation here in the solar sector.  It is a hot sector as far as what will get backing and funding from the Obama administration.  There are many players, and the U.S. companies need larger scale and leverage to better compete against the Chinese solar stocks.  And they have to do whatever they can to get back to or to stay profitable.

In any buyout scenario if any sort of solar mergers were to come up, First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is the big kahuna.  It would be a buyer unless for some reason a traditional oil or gas company decided that they really wanted to compete again BP plc (NYSE: BP) for its large solar initiative.  It is possible, just unlikely because of valuations.  The company is under a new CEO with a solid reputation, but even with a $9.6 billion market cap the stock is way from highs.

JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) is one of the stocks which has helped to boost the solar sector today as well.  The company managed to beat earnings and raise its shipment forecasts for 2010.  Earnings were $0.14 EPS vs. $0.11 EPS estimates and revenues rose 23.5% to $238.4 million versus $213.5 million consensus (Thomson Reuters consensus).  It now expects shipments to exceed 900MW for 2010, above prior guidance in the range of 750MW to 800MW.  Shares are up 8% at $5.04 on over 600,000 shares.  This one may not be a takeout candidate, but it is one of the solar catalysts today.

Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) went from one of the big heroes in this sector to be of the big zeroes… At $7.82 the stock is very weak.  This is one of the players that has been rumored to be a buyout candidate before.  It does not matter that the year high is above $29.00 nor does it matter that it hit $80 in 2008… but the problem is that a low premium won’t get approved by shareholders no matter what it means based on today’s valuations.  There are simply too many holders here who are ‘long and wrong’ in their bets.

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is another name that has come up before as a rumored buyout name.  But it is based in China and the company has had some rather obscure issues, and accusations have long been a voice against this company.  If LDK were ever a real takeout name, it is too difficult to offer a buyer’s name based upon what we have seen at this stock.

GT Solar International, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR) is another name which we feel could be in the realm of potential targets.  It is on the equipment side and the supply side of the solar equation.  It was also one of the last of the wave of solar companies to come public.  Whether a deal can be done, the company is young and there are too many variables here to count.

Another name which has come up is MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR).  This is a PV wafer materials maker, but it is mostly in semiconductors.  The company has fallen from grace, but things seemed to have grown less-cold for it of late.  I can recall an email from Broadpoint AmTech this week with a “Buy” rating and $21 target based upon margins resuming there.

Today is a strange day in solar stocks.  The trends continue to be unfavorable for the sector if you back out the subsidy and stimulus packages that these and peers have been the beneficiary of.  Oil has to be rising steadily for the investment community to get back on to the alternative energy bandwagon in full swing, and a better economy would help.  That being said, there are some companies which could be rolled up or added as niche plays.  The problem is that there seems to be very few natural buyers, or at least natural and willing buyers.

JON C. OGG
FEBRUARY 11, 2010

Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
CIENA Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) Cut to Equal Weight at Barclays.
Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) Raised to Hold at Brean Murray.
Exelon Corp. (NYSE: EXC) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.
Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) Raised to Neutral at HSBC.
Mastercard (NYSE: MA) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
MEMC Electronics (NYSE: WFR) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
MetLife (NYSE: MET) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP) Started as Overweight at Barclays.
Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
New Oriental Education (NYSE: EDU) Raised to Buy at Brean Murray; Started as Neutral at Cowen.
Veeco Instruments (NASDAQ: VECO) Started as Buy at Lazard.

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JON C. OGG

Chinese solar stock, in particular, have performed well.  Chinese companies are better equipped to withstand a more competitive market for solar power in Germany due to their low cost of production.  Today Jefferies & Co. analysts Paul Clegg upgraded the entire Chinese solar industry.  Yingli Green Energy Hold. Co. (NYSE: YGE) rose the most out of the group, gaining over 6.7% today.

Garrett W. McIntyre

Research-in-Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) is the top dog today with gains over 10% after beating earnings and smartphone sales.

Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) is off by under 8%, a victory considering its news and its current expectations from everyone.

Deer Consumer Products, Inc. (NASDAQ: DEER) is back in the day trader alerts and is trading higher by almost on 10% on raised guidance.

Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) is not just at a 52-week high.. it is hitting highs not seen since 2001 after beating earnings yesterday afternoon.

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is seeing even more weakness after a huge drop yesterday on its ‘going concern’ disclosure and its secondary offering.

Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) was one with little greatness, but shares are up 8% on Carl Icahn having a big stake.

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JON C. OGG

The gains in short selling in major solar players are as follows:

• First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) 12,623.088 shares short, a gain of 0.3% from 12,590,473.
• JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) 7,612,356 shares short, a gain of 7.5% from 7,079,428.
• SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) 13,282,532 shares short, a gain of 14.1% from 11,641,669.
• Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE: STP) 23,490,428 shares short, a gain of 6.9% from 21,970,277.

The drop in the short interest in solar players is as follows:

• Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) 15.951,275 shares short, a drop of 1% from 16,113,828.
• LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK) 21,990,443 shares short, a drop of 2.5% from 22,552,585.
• Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) 1,988,891 shares short, a drop of 16.6% from the 2,385,353.

JON C. OGG
December 10, 2009

We have included estimates from Thomson Reuters, relative data on peers and recent developments, and relative performance on each where it was applicable.

The biggest on Monday is Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) in the PC and It services sector.  We would note that estimates may have just been unofficially guided down after Dell’s rotten quarter, but we already have recent guidance from H-P.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.13 EPS and $30.36 billion in revenues.  Estimates for next quarter are $1.04 EPS and $29.7 billion in revenues.  We are going to hold off on most data going into H-P earnings at least before Monday morning because of last-minute estimate changes based on Dell.  We would note that some of Dell’s woes are due to H-P, and then the Acer netbook and whatever you want to tie into Apple’s gains.  H-P is also really marginalized about what it says Monday because it already lifted guidance when it announced its buyout of 3Com (NASDAQ: COMS).

Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) is on deck Monday.  This may not seem important, but it is to the meat and food supplier companies.  Estimates are $0.26 EPS and $6.89 billion in revenues, and next quarter estimates are $0.15 EPS and $6.59 billion in revenues.  As a producer of chicken, beef, pork, and prepared foods, it will be interesting to see if the H1N1 fears by the public have finally worked themselves out.  The company just named a new CEO this week, which always makes for a wild card report or conference call.

Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) has finally gotten off the floor after not participating in the rally.  At $34.13, its 52-week trading is $24.63 to $37.58.  Estimates are $0.81 EPS and $2.28 billion in revenues.  The big question here is what the company sees ahead for off-brand and private-label competition from grocery stores looking for more of the profits to stay in their pockets.  It turns out that Campbell Soup is not recession-proof and has some aspects of a luxury brand when it comes to pinching pennies.  Interestingly enough, this one just raised its dividend by 10%.

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is also on deck Monday, and by now may just be a me-too solar earnings report.  It is a loser too as estimates are -$0.10 EPS and $277.2 in revenues.  Next quarter is expected to show -$0.05 EPS and $258.7 million in revenues.

Tech Data Corp. (NASDAQ: TECD) is often overlooked as a key company, but the company offers a broad insight on what is happening in the world of technology products as it gets all the goods from the factories to the end retailers around the globe.  Estimates are $0.70 EPS and $5.31 billion in revenues, and next quarter estimates are $0.82 EPS and $5.63 billion in revenues.  At just under 15-times expected Jan-2010 fiscal earnings, this isn’t expensive, but the performance is high: At $42.08 this one has a 52-week trading range of $14.14 to $44.63.  We’d watch Ingram Micro (NYSE: IM) for a chaser move either way.

We have the big book earnings war on Tuesday with both Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) and Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) and we’d be sure to make note that these are thinly followed compared to most big retailers.  Barnes & Noble is expected to post -$0.33 EPS and $1.16 billion, but the coming holiday quarter estimates are $1.52 EPS and $2.18 billion in revenues.  Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) is expected to post -$0.46 EPS and $630 million in revenues, and the coming important holiday quarter is expected to be $0.92 EPS and $987.9 million in revenues.  While both stocks are up significantly from the lows, neither stock is anywhere close to being a top performer and neither is close to 52-week highs.  There is a move to digital books on e-readers and online pure-plays for selling books or readers buying at Costco, Wal-Mart, and elsewhere.  And dare we say… Most Americans do not read books anymore anyway.  It looks like there are fresh reports that the Nook e-reader from Barnes & Noble is also getting delayed and might not make the Christmas deadline… a win for Amazon and the Kindle.

J. Crew Group, Inc. (NYSE: JCG) is far from a systemic stock, but it will be all over the media when it reports on Tuesday because of the Obama effect.  Michelle Obama has been a boom for J. Crew… to the point that you can’t not notice the premium valuations over other clothing retailers.  Estimates are $0.58 EPS and $407.99 million in revenues, and the estimates for the ever-important holiday season are $0.40 EPS and $435.48 million in revenues.  As far as how this translates to forward numbers, J. Crew trades after a 1.6% drop today to $40.45 at over 25-times the $1.60 EPS estimate for Jan-2010 FY and trades at 21-times the $1.93 EPS estimate for Jan-2011 FY.  With a $40.45, it is also at the top of the $8.02 to $44.29 trading range over the last 52-weeks.  This stock was at $50.00 briefly in early 2008 and above $50.00 in 2007 before the great bear market came to town before Santa.

Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) is also on deck Tuesday, and this can influence all the other dollar stores.  By now you have figured out that dollar stores were the winner in the trade-down economy during the recession.  Estimates are $0.66 EPS on $1.24 billion in revenues.  The coming holiday quarter estimates are $1.35 EPS and $1.53 billion in revenues.  At $48.70 today, its 52-week trading range is $27.61 to $51.72.  That being said, there is little else to watch except for keeping an eye on Dollar General (NYSE: DG), 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN), and Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO).

Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) has already recovered handily to the point that it is close to 52-week highs.  It reports Wednesday morning, right before everyone disappears to go eat Turkey with their families in America.  Estimates are $0.03 EPS and $4.44 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.23 EPS and $4.06 billion.  At $50.00, it is at the top of the $24.51 to $52.28 trading range over the last 52-weeks. Deere has already announced that it was recalling 452 laid off workers for an Iowa plant, so it would be a shock if suddenly the company announced that business was rolling back over hard.  We will be hoping for raised guidance for its fiscal October-2010 because the $2.68 estimate above the $2.61 EPS estimate for fiscal October-2009, but more importantly because that is 18.6-times forward earnings.  Anything short of raised guidance, by a handy amount, will be a disappointment to us.

We will follow-up on some of these each day next week with much more detailed earnings previews and some earnings reports in the key names.

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JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 19, 2009

Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) Cut to Neutral at SunTrust.
Coach (COH) Started as Neutral at UBS.
LDK Solar (LDK) Started as Underperform at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Synaptics (SYNA) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.

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JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 13, 2009

Chinese solar PV maker Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL) has announced a five-year contract extension with another Chinese company that produces polysilicon and solar wafers. Trina plans to use the materials to produce about 8,500 megawatts of solar modules over the next 13 years.

The original contract began in April 2008 and was to run for eight years. This extension does not change any terms of that contract; it adds five years beginning in 2016 at already agreed-upon volumes and prices, though a price adjustment is possible based on market prices.

Meanwhile, Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (STP) has completed a 10 megawatt PV solar generation plant in the Nigxia Autonomous Region of China. This is the first utility-scale PV plant in China, and Suntech plans to expand capacity to 50 megawatts by 2011. The newly-started plant will displace about 20,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually. Suntech’s partner in this enterprise is a government-owned entity called the China Energy Conservation Investment Co. Ltd.

The upbeat news from Trina and Suntech is giving another solar maker, LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (LDK), a headache. LDK is solely a supplier of polysilicon wafers. Trina and Suntech both manufacture polysilicon and make solar PV cells. And that latter is where the money is now.

In addition to being a major maker of solar products, China is becoming a major buyer of PV solar cells as it attempts both to clean up its act and to support the solar makers who many experts believe will be overproducing solar equipment by the end of the year. Lord knows China can afford to buy and install solar power generation. Still, by managing its solar industry’s markets, as well as its production, the government had better be sure its calculations are correct because any disruption either to the market or to the source of supply could poke a serious hole in China’s solar industry.

So far this morning, Trina ADRs are trading on the NYSE at $32.75, up around 3%, near the top of the company’s 52-week range of $5.61-$35.95. Suntech shares are also up marginally to $15.49, near the middle of its 52-week range of $5.09-$37.54. LDK Solar shares are off 4.23%, down to $8.60 in a 52-week range of $3.75-$33.87.

Paul Ausick

Vonage Holdings Inc. (NYSE: VG) is hitting amazing trading after yesterday’s 100%+ gains and this morning we saw shares up sharply by yet another 39% to new 52-week highs….

Williams-Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) is hitting highs for 2009 on earnings and higher guidance.

TerreStar Corporation (NASDAQ: TSTR) is up on active volume this morning on no news…. this is an unusual volume mover considering how it trades.

Capstone Turbine Corporation (NASDAQ: CPST) is surging to recent highs on a new supply pact.

Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NYSE: HGSI) is trading up yet again, and on the same news…

Myriad Genetics Inc. (NASDAQ: MYGN) is up big on earnings and an upgrade.

LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is up big on news out of China.

SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) seems to be losing momentum as the street awaits news, but we gave some recent day high-low levels for pivot points…

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