AECOM Technology Corporation (NYSE: ACM) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALNY) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) Reiterated Buy with $145 target at Argus.

BP plc (NYSE: BP) Cut to Underweight at Barclays.

Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) Raised to Hold from Sell at Argus.

China Petroleum & Chemical (NYSE: SNP), or Sinopec, named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Cognizant Technology Solutions (NASDAQ: CTSH) Raised to Outperform at R.W. Baird.

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA) Raised to Buy at Needham.

El Paso Pipeline Partners, LP (NYSE: EPB) Started as Outperform with $38 target at Credit Suisse.

Embraer SA (NYSE: ERJ) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) maintained Buy with $19 target at Argus.

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (NYSE: LPX) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Manulife Financial (NYSE: MFC) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Millennial Media Inc. (NYSE: MM) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Started as Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Started as Equal-weight at Barclays.

Rackspace Hosting, Inc. (NYSE: RAX) maintained Neutral with $57 target at Goldman Sachs.

Synacor Inc. (NASDAQ: SYNC) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VRTX) Raised to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) Maintained Outperform with $166 target at Credit Suisse.

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JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 30 points to 13,008.53 (-0.23%), the NASDAQ rose less than 2 points (0.05%) to 2,957.76, and the S&P 500 rose 0.48% or less than 1 point to 1,369.58.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) cut to ‘neutral’ at Argus; Pepsico Inc. (NYSE: PEP) raised to ‘overweight’ at Morgan Stanley; Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) cut to ‘market perform’ at Wells Fargo; Illumina Inc. (NASDAQ: ILMN) raised to ‘outperform’ with a price target of $55 at Credit Suisse; and Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) cut to ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (AMEX: ANV) is down about -10% at $25.59 after posting a new 52-week low of $25.37 earlier today; American States Water Co. (NYSE: AWR) is up 3.6% at $37.09; Breitburn Energy Partners L.P. (NASDAQ: BBEP) is down -2.4% at $17.54; Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. (NYSE: CDE) is down -4.1% at $18.99 after posting a new 52-week low of $18.71; Dish Network Corp. (NASDAQ: DISH) is down -0.93% at $31.02; Louisiana Pacific Corp. (NYSE: LPX) is up 5.9% at $9.49; Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) is up 3.4% at $18.65; and HollyFrontier Corp. (NYSE: HFC) is down -2.4% at $28.82 (more coverage here).

On Tuesday we are scheduled to get earnings from Charter Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTR), Demand Media Inc. (NYSE: DMD), Hecla Mining Co. (NYSE: HL), OfficeMax Inc. (NYSE: OMX), Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE: THC), The Wendy’s Co. (NYSE: WEN), and Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX) is up about 55% at $58.05. The company’s cystic fibrosis drug study showed significant positive results. More coverage here.

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ: CTSH) is down more than -XX% at $XX. The IT-outsourcing firm showed good results, but guidance was weak. More coverage here.

BroadSoft Inc. (NASDAQ: BSFT) is down -17.6% at $33.68. The communications software maker posted good earnings, but followed that with soft guidance for the second quarter.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher are giving speeches. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:30 a.m. – NFIB Small Business optimism index
• 11:30 a.m. – 4-week bill auction
• 1:00 p.m. – 3-year note auction

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Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 168 points to 13,038.04 (-1.28%), the NASDAQ fell nearly 68 points (-2.25%) to 2,956.34, and the S&P 500 fell -1.62% or more than 22 points to 1,369.09.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including LinkedIn Corp. (NYSE: LNKD) target price raised to $140 at Susquehanna; FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) raised to ‘strong buy’ at Raymond James; The Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL) raised to ‘overweight’ at Barclays; Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) started as ‘outperform’ at BMO; and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) reiterated ‘buy’ and target price of $14 at Argus.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is down -6% at $16.98 after posting a new 52-week low of $16.80 earlier today (more solar coverage here); SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) is down -2.1% at $5.58; AES Corp. (NYSE: AES) is down -0.7% at $12.13 (more utilities coverage here); Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK) is up 0.9% at $21.60; Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE: EL) is down -5.8% at $60.44 (more coverage here); The Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) is down -5.4% at $355.88; Exelon Corp. (NYSE: EXC) is down -0.7% at $38.54; and The Madison Square Garden Co. (NASDAQ: MSG) is up 3.7% at $37.87 after posting a new 52-week high of $38.38..

On Monday we get earnings from American States Water Co. (NYSE: AWR), Breitburn Energy Partners L.P. (NASDAQ: BBEP), Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), Dish Network Corp. (NASDAQ: DISH), Louisiana Pacific Corp. (NYSE: LPX), Kid Brands Inc. (NYSE: KID), Jinkosolar Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS), and Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: BAGL) is up 19.9% at $16.84 after posting a new 52-week high of $17.68 earlier today. The bagel maker and restaurateur reported strong earnings and said it would begin to explore strategic options.

Dolby Laboratories Inc. (NYSE: DLB) is up 17.5% at $44.22. The company reported strong earnings and has signed a deal with Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT). More coverage here.

Body Central Corp. (NASDAQ: BODY) is down -47.8% at $15.11. The young women’s apparel seller reported poor earnings and forecast more of the same until at least back-to-school season.

Stay tuned for Monday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 11:30 a.m. – 3- and 6- month bill auction
• 3:00 p.m. – Consumer credit report

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Have a great weekend.

Paul Ausick

Weyerhaeuser and competitors Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. (NYSE: PCL) and Rayonier Inc. (NYSE: RYN) are REITs, while smaller competitor Pope Resources LP (NASDAQ: POPE) is a limited partnership. Over the past 12 months, only Rayonier has significantly boosted its share price. Rayonier’s jump was almost entirely due to a 1-for-1.5 stock split in late July.

Wood products companies such as Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (NYSE: LPX), Universal Forest Products Inc. (NASDAQ: UFPI), BlueLinx Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BXC), Builders FirstSource Inc. (NASDAQ: BLDR), and Deltic Timber Corp. (NYSE: DEL) have performed better. These companies are more closely tied to the US homebuilding and remodeling market, which has been improving in the first quarter of this year.

But will that continue? The bigger companies like Weyerhaeuser, Plum Creek, and Rayonier depend on exports to China to keep revenues and profits up. Chinese log imports totaled $8 billion last year, and North American logs contributed 22% of China’s total imports in 2011.
The bad news is that Chinese imports fell -11% in the first three months of this year, but the losses hit New Zealand and Russia hardest. Canadian log exports to China rose 23% in the first quarter and US exports rose 2%. And those gains were due, at least in part, to lower prices for North American logs.

New home construction in the US will drive log and lumber prices. If more homes are built, US demand will rise and so will prices. The various indicators for increased homebuilding in the US are mixed, but the optimistic view that construction will increase is certainly problematic. A warm winter could have pulled some construction starts ahead into the first quarter. The same is true of remodeling projects that would have improved the first quarter performance of the wood products companies.

Weyerhaeuser, which also builds and sells houses, “anticipates a small loss from single family homebuilding operations” in the second quarter. The company’s first quarter revenue from home sales fell by about -50% sequentially. While that’s not a leading indicator for the rest of the country’s homebuilders, it could be the canary in the coal mine.

Weyerhaeuser’s shares are up 0.9% in pre-market trading this morning, at $21.06, in a 52-wekik range of $14.82-$23.91.

Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 33 points to 12,878.43 (0.26%), the NASDAQ rose more than 2 points (0.07%) to 2,904.08, and the S&P 500 rose 0.20% or nearly 3 points to 1,347.05.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) started as ‘underweight’ at Barclays; IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM) started as ‘buy’ with a $230 target price at Sterne Agee (our coverage here); AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/ML; Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) cut to ‘sell’ at Brean Murray; and Zoltek Cos. Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) cut to ‘underperform’ at Needham (our coverage here).

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) is up 2.67% at $64.88 after posting a new 52-week high of $65.79 earlier today; ArcelorMittal AS (NYSE: MT) is up 3.5% at $22.19; BP plc (NYSE: BP) is down -0.41% at $46.68; Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) is up 1% at $68.71 (our coverage here); Emerson Electric Co. (NYSE: EMR) is down -2.6% at $51.99; and Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (NYSE: LPX) is down -6.5% at $8.31 (our coverage here).

Our preview of tomorrow’s earnings releases is here.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

The McClatchy Co. (NYSE: MNI) is up 21% at $2.71. The newspaper company reported stronger-than-expected earnings today on cost-cutting.

Coinstar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR) is up 16.5% at $58.90 after posting a new 52-week high of $60.81 earlier today. The video rental company will join with Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) to offer a streaming video service to compete with Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and others. More coverage here and here.

Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE: SPF) is up 15.8% at $4.69 after posting a new 52-week high of $4.85 earlier today. The homebuilder posted good earnings today and reported that orders are up 8% in January.

Nevsun Resources Ltd. (AMEX: NSU) is down more than -30% at $4.43. The junior gold miner issued a preliminary 2012 outlook that included a sharp drop in production and in its reserves estimates.

BioSante Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BPAX) is down more than -18% at $0.86. The company is the target of a new lawsuit charging it with misrepresentation. We have more coverage of BioSante here.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. San Francisco Federal Reserve president John Williams is giving a speech. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications report
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
• 1:00 p.m. – Treasury 10-year note auction

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Paul Ausick

A123 Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: AONE) Cut to Sector Perform at Pacific Crest.
Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Boyd Gaming Corp. (NYSE: BYD) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Capstone Turbine Corporation (NASDAQ: CPST) Started as Outperform at FBR.
Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTXS) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
HSBC Holdings plc (NYSE: HBC) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL) Reiterated Focus List Buy with $24 target at Argus.
Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (NYSE: LPX) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
MakeMyTrip Limited (NASDAQ: MMYT) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
MetroPCS Communications, Inc. (NYSE: PCS) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC.
ProLogis (NYSE: PLD) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Staples, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS) Named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) Raised to Outperform at BMO.
Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

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JON C. OGG

The sharp rise in commodities prices coincided with the rise in the euro for the last half of 2010 and the first four months of 2011, but what now appears to be a near-certain restructuring/default of Greek sovereign debt is chilling the appetite for risk.

But Europe isn’t the only issue. China’s battle against inflation is being waged with higher interest rates on bank loans, which in turn appears to be slowing down the country’s growth. Chinese energy import growth could be slowing down and there is some belief that some of the construction that is going on in China is really just make-work projects to keep workers employed building housing that no one either can afford or wants to buy — the Chinese version of Potemkin villages.

The odd thing about flight to the dollar is that the US economy itself remains pretty weak. If this economy is the best that the world has to offer, things might be worse than everyone fears.

Take lumber prices for example. A contract for a thousand board feet can be purchased today for less than $220, compared with more than $320 in early March. Timber companies like Weyerhaeuser Corp. (NYSE: WY), Plum Creek Timber Co., Inc. (NYSE: PCL), and Louisiana Pacific Corp. (NYSE: LPX) have been counting on demand from China to make up for slack demand in the US, but the cavalry has not arrived yet. Worse, the cavalry may never arrive, at least in the hoped-for strength due to the slower-growing Chinese economy.

US homebuilders have done nothing to support lumber prices either, as they all continue to struggle with a collapse in new housing starts. And in a reverse situation, rising cotton prices have hurt share prices at retailers like Gap Stores Inc. (NYSE: GPS) and Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO). That maybe about to turn around though.

Cotton prices have been falling since hitting a peak near $2.10/pound in early March. Currently sitting at about $1.55/pound, falling cotton prices may help retailers in the second half of the year, but inventories of higher-priced goods remain high and a continuing drop in cotton prices is not a sure thing. The risk to retailers remains high.

Cotton growers appear to be expecting prices to remain high and are planting more acres in cotton. In one district in California’s central valley, as much as 90,000 more acres will be planted this year, although not all in cotton. There will also be more wheat, another crop that remains near 12-month highs.

Growers are betting that cotton prices stay high, even though they plan to plant more. Retailers are hoping that cotton prices fall as growers plant more. While not exactly a zero-sum game, an outcome that supports both growers and retailers could be pretty hard to come by.

Finally today, gold and silver prices have moved up only marginally, with gold trading at about $1,514/ounce in the early afternoon, and silver at $34.88/ounce. The stronger dollar is also dampening enthusiasm for the precious metals. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is up about 0.22%, to $147.71, in a 52-week range of $113.08-$153.61, and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) is down about -0.3%, at $34.08, in a 52-week range of $16.94-$48.35.

The mining ETFs are faring a bit worse, with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) down more than -1% and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) off more than -3%. GDX is trading at $55.16, in a 52-week range of $45.88-$64.62. GDXJ is trading at $35.03, in a 52-week range of $25.10-$44.86. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: SIL) is down about -2.5%, to $23.56, in a range of $12.90-$31.34.

Paul Ausick

Shortly after noon today, WTI crude prices were flat with yesterday’s close at around $98.21/barrel. Crude prices fell early, to $95.25/barrel, but pushed near $100/barrel before falling back again. Silver prices are down about -4%, to $34.10, after plunging to $32.30 early. Gold prices are also recovering from a dip to $1,477.60, and are now down less than -0.5% at $1,498.10.

Today’s wobbly prices are likely due to a wobbly greenback. The dollar gained strength against the euro early this morning, but has given it all back since. The dollar has gained about 3% on the euro since the beginning of the month which helps keep the prices of dollar-priced commodities in check and cools demand for safe haven investments like gold and, to some extent, silver. When there are a lot of uncertainties in the currency markets, that translates into uncertainty about commodity futures. And that’s where we are today.

The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) is down about -3%, at $33.36, within a 52-week range of $16.73-$48.35. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is off less than -0.5%, at $145.89, within a 52-week range of $113.08-$153.61.

Copper prices are up again today, at nearly $3.97/pound after falling to around $3.85/pound. Copper fell yesterday on fears that Chinese growth was slowing and that the country’s rising inflation would cause the government to put more capital controls in place. The government did increase the reserve ratio requirement for banks by 50 basis points today, but copper’s expected fundamental supply deficit this year still helps keep the price from collapsing. The iPath DJ-UBS Copper Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: JJC) is up more than 1.5%, to $52.24, within a 52-week range of $36.60-$61.69.

Wheat prices have continued their slide today as the market continues to adjust to the projected rise in imports from Russia and other former Soviet Union countries. Wheat is down about -3%, to $7.36/bushel after coming back from a intra-day low of about $7.28. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is down more than -1%, to $52.87, within a 52-week range of $35.62-$57.93. The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: DBA) is also down, but by less than -0.5%, at $32.28, within a 52-week range of $22.85-$35.58.

Lumber prices, like wheat, are down today by about -1.5%, at $230.70/thousand board feet, its lowest point in about seven months. Weakness in lumber is directly related to weakness in new home construction, and with US housing starts in April forecast at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 549,000, the outlook for much higher lumber prices is not terribly strong.

Except in Canada, where the country’s export development commission expects Canadian export growth of 12% in 2011 and another 7% in 2012. Oil accounts for 20% of the total thru 2012, but the country is also expecting good things from its forestry industry. Canada expects forestry exports to grow by 9% in 2011 and another 13% in 2012.

The Canadians are looking south for a big part of that growth, to the US housing market, which they predict will see 700,000 new housing starts in 2011, and 1 million housing starts in 2012. That’s nearly double the April 2010 rate.

A look at the forward P/E ratios for three US lumber companies seems to back up the Canadian view. Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) posts a trailing P/E of 5.53, but a forward P/E of 24.23. Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. (NYSE: PCL) has a trailing P/E of a whopping 41.46 and a forward P/E of 25.41. Even Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (NYSE: LPX), which is expected to post a full-year loss in 2011, has a forward P/E of 26.52. Maybe all that timber is going to build homes in China and rebuild homes in Japan.

It would take some sort of economic miracle for the US to support that kind of earnings growth. A forestry consultancy in Vancouver thinks it will be 2013 before US housing starts hit 1 million. Even that could be a stretch, though, given the nearly 3.5 million houses currently for sale in the US. Until that number comes down significantly, demand for new housing in the US simply won’t grow at the rates that the Canadians are expecting.

Paul Ausick

Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO) Raised to Hold at KeyBanc.
Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) Started as Neutral with $43 target at Credit Suisse.
Diamond Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) Cut to Hold at BB&T.
Health Management Associates Inc. (NYSE: HMA) Removed from Focus List at Credit Suisse.
KB Home (NYSE: KBH) Reiterated Hold at Argus; Maintained Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (NYSE: LPX) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX) Started as Outperform at Macquarie.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) Started as Outperform and $55 target at Credit Suisse.
SLM Corp. (NYSE: SLM) Cut to Neutral at Zacks.
Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) Reiterated Outperform with $8 target at Credit Suisse.
Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO) Maintained as Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) Reiterated Buy and $40 target at Argus.
Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC) Reiterated Buy at Argus.
W.R. Berkley Corporation (NYSE: WRB) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

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JON C. OGG

AstraZeneca plc (NYSE: AZN) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; Targets raised by Morgan Stanley.
EXFO Electro Optical Engineering Inc. (NASDAQ: EXFO) Raised to Buy at TD.
France Telecom S.A. (NYSE: FTE) Cut To Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Hudson City Bancorp (NASDAQ: HCBK) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (NYSE: LPX) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotia Capital.
Portugal Telecom SGPS, S.A. (NYSE: PT) Cut To Neutral From Buy By Goldman Sachs
Smith & Nephew plc (NYSE: SNN) Started At Buy By Jefferies
U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
Vodafone plc (NYSE: VOD) Target Cut at Goldman Sachs.

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JON C. OGG