Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NYSE: ADP) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup; Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
E*TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) Reiterated Buy with $22 Target at Argus.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) Started as Perform at Williams Capital.
Inergy Midstream, L.P. (NYSE: NRGM) Started as Outperform with $26 target at Credit Suisse.
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) Maintained Outperform with $56 target price at Credit Suisse.
Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE) Raised To Outperform From Market Perform By Leerink Swann
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) Raised to Buy at Citigroup; Maintained Outperform and raised target to $125 at Credit Suisse.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna.
Ryanair Holdings plc (NASDAQ: RYAAY) Cut to Neutral at Nomura.
Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

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JON C. OGG

The companies are complementary, each specializing in a different bit of the chip equipment making business. Some chip makers, notably Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) and Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) have lowered guidance for 2012, and sales estimates for the chip industry are nearly -20% lower next year. A single company offering a wider range of equipment has a better chance of surviving than do two smaller, more specialized firms.

Lam has also said that it will begin buying back up to $1.6 billion in stock following the close of the transaction, which is expected to happen in the second quarter of 2012. Lam expects the buyback program to be completed within 12 months.

The cleverly structured deal is tax-free to shareholders and the buyback program means that Lam is paying about 48% of the acquisition price in cash. When the deal closes, Lam shareholders will own about 59% of the new company and Novellus shareholders will own about 41%. The surviving company will retain the Lam name.

Foreign investment in China drops for the first time in 28 months. (Reuters)

Holiday sales continue to tick higher, according to the National Retail Federation. (Reuters)

Sony (NYSE: SNE) confirms its 2011 and 2012 targets for PS3 sales. (Reuters)

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares lose 2011 gains because of concerns about margins. (Reuters)

Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) to buy Novellus Systems (NASDAQ: NVLS) for $3.3 billion. (Reuters)

The SEC will try to appeal a federal ruling that blocked a settlement with Citigroup  (NYSE: C) over toxic mortgage debt.  (WSJ)

Wage increases in China cause the costs of its exports to the U.S. to rise. (WSJ)

Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is under pressure to replace senior management. (WSJ)

Shares of Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN) fall as research firms cut ratings. (WSJ)

Nokia (NYSE: NOK) returns to the U.S. with a $50 smartphone with T-Mobile service. (WSJ)

E-book prices rise quickly. (WSJ)

EU leaders continue to move away from the solid front they had last week. (WSJ)

The NFL signs new nine-year deals with Fox, NBC and CBS, which will pay an average of 65% more than their previous arrangements. (WSJ)

More oil companies seek leases for Gulf of Mexico drilling. (WSJ)

Brazil will try to shutter the operations of Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and Transocean (NYSE: RIG) as the government attempts to collect $11 billion over leak damages. (WSJ)

First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) sharply cuts forecasts. (WSJ)

LightSquared’s high-speed internet would hurt GPS signals, according to the federal government. (WSJ)

Credit Agricole sharply cuts expenses in the face of the EU crisis. (WSJ)

Detroit sells $484 million in bonds but at very high rates. (WSJ)

Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) and E*Trade Financial (NASDAQ: ETFC) are hurt by drops in trading volume. (WSJ)

China puts tariffs on U.S. cars with large engines. (NYT)

OPEC increases output levels. (NYT)

IBM (NYSE: IBM) settles an antitrust case with the EU. (NYT)

Foreign-owned banks in the U.S. are losing deposits on a flight to safety. (FT)

Douglas A. McIntyre

24/7 Wall St. has compiled detailed earnings previews for the following companies: Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS); Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA); ADTRAN Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN); Host Hotels and Resorts Inc. (NYSE: HST); Pepsico Inc. (NYSE: PEP); Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG); J. B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT); J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM); Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY); and Mattel Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT).

Some of these companies will not really seem on the surface to be sector-movers or market-moving companies, but these have been selected because they are the first ones of their peer groups to be reporting earnings. 

We have created a detailed earnings preview for each with consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters and added color in on each for investors to see what exactly is worth consideration this earnings season.  We have also added in recent price history and named where to look for additonal action (or fallout).

Monday, October 10

Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) is the first chip equipment player to report for this earnings season.  it has been a few weeks since we have had earnings reports or guidance in the sector so we will be paying close attention since so many companies that are chip equipment customers have talked down their numbers in recent weeks.  Our belief is that expectations are very low for the quarter ahead. Estimates are $0.68 EPS and $311.9 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.50 EPS and $278.5 million in revenue.  With shares hovering around $30.00 on Friday, the 52-week range is $25.26 to $41.82 and shares were above $36 in early July.  After Novellus reports, we would be watching the following: Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT), KLA-Tencor Corporation (NASDAQ: KLAC), and Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX).

Tuesday, October 11

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) has already talked down aluminum prices and we have already seen slowing demand out of China talked about by many sectors.  Alcoa keeps maintaining that it can double its business by 2020 and we do not expect that to be changed by management even if it guides lower expectations ahead.  Estimates are $0.23 EPS and $6.24 billion in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.23 EPS and $6.11 billion in revenue. At $9.80 on Friday, the 52-week range is $8.45 to $19.47 and this one was above $16 at the start of July.  There are many metals stocks to watch, some in aluminum and some in other metals: Century Aluminum Co. (NASDAQ: CENX), Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (NYSE: RS); Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ: KALU); Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE); and Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE).

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Started as Buy with $495 target at Janney.
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) Started as Overweight at Barclays.
Charter Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTR) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) Raised to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE)  Started as Overweight at Barclays.
DIRECTV (NASDAQ: DTV) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Imperial Holdings, LLC (NYSE: IFT) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Men’s Wearhouse Inc. (NYSE: MW) named value stock of the day at Zacks.
Novellus Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
NutriSystem Inc. (NASDAQ: NTRI) Started as Buy at Auriga.
Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NASDAQ: TEVA) Started as Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
VeriFone Systems, Inc (NYSE: PAY) Started as Buy at Argus.
Warner Chilcott plc (NASDAQ: WCRX) Started as Buy at Canaccord Genuity.

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JON C. OGG

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
Avis Budget Group (NYSE: CAR) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) Raised to Outperform at William Blair.
Citi Trends, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTRN) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) Added to Focus 1 List at BofA/ML.
Enbridge Inc. (NYSE: ENB) Started as Outperform at Scotia.
Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) Reinstated as Neutral at BofA/ML.
Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Pier 1 Imports, Inc. (NYSE: PIR) Raised to Buy at KeyBanc.
Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) Started as Underperform at Macquarie.
Telefonica, S.A. (NYSE: TEF) Raised to Buy at UBS.

See last week’s top analyst calls here.

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JON C. OGG

Value for the sake of value may never seem like a true catalyst on the surface. In fact, it usually requires an outside economic event or an internal event that creates that next catalyst. All value investors know two things for long-term picks: first is that the value has to be cheap enough to be worth what may be a very long wait, and second is that when the catalyst arises much of that great opportunity may have already been missed. The town crier may be telling you that many of the great tech stocks are just too cheap today, even if there is a lack of catalysts and even if there is no assurance that the absolute bottom has been seen in the market. One upcoming catalyst could be the calendar: investors have historically preferred to buy technology shares shortly ahead of the fourth quarter.

The old rule of thumb is that stocks should trade at roughly 15-times earnings, with a premium or discount applied to growth and to certain industries. That number may be 12-times or 13-times earnings now. Most value investors also use 3.0-times book value as the basic line for “value.” 24/7 Wall St. has found 12 great technology giants at steep market discounts that are all rather well-known with long histories, they trade at less than 10-times current earnings, they also trade at less than 10-times forward earnings, they have large cash balances, most are at very low multiples of book value, and they are all down considerably from recent highs and highs of the past five years.

The late-summer technology value picks are as follows: Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT); Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE: CSC); Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW); Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL); Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ); Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC); KLA-Tencor Corporation (NASDAQ: KLAC); Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX); Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT); Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU); SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK); and Western Digital Corporation (NYSE: WDC).

Looking for value is usually tricky as there is generally a reason for such a low valuation. Earnings that make up that P/E might not live up to expectations, cash reserves can be chewed up, analysts often change their targets and many fail to trust that the value is reflecting uncertainty in the markets. This will show you the good and the bad in these uncanny technology values.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is the king of chip cap-ex and it carries a $15 billion market value. The company usually trades with a lower-than-market earnings multiple, but as the leader this one has always managed to come back. The stock trades at only about 9.6-times current earnings and trades at about 8.7-times forward earnings. It also trades at only about 1.8-times book value, it carries little long-term debt, and its cash and investments are listed as being close to $4.6 billion combined. It also carries a 3% dividend yield. At $11.44, the 52-week trading range is $10.27 to $16.93 and this was above $22 back in 2007 and shares went under $9.00 at the selling zeniths of late-2008 and early-2009.

We have added in the price action and impact of calls, and also added in color on the situation and included more consensus data if relevant.

Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) had a rough week as tech stocks in equipment got off to a rough start for this earnings season.  Deutsche Bank cut its rating to Hold from Buy, taking shares from $5.58 to $5.36 on the call, but ultimately taking shares down to a low of $5.00 during the week before it closed out the week at $5.09.  That is nearly 10% lower for the call’s impact all together, and it needs to be considered that this former dog is still up more than 50% in 2011.

American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) is a company that 24/7 Wall St. has been very positive on for quite some time.  It is one of our Top Stocks To Own For The Decade.  Around $29.50, its consensus target is $31.60 and the highest official target is $38.00. We think $35 is a fair value for 2012, but one call in water came out this week that really highlighted value above and beyond what we and above and beyond what Wall Street thinks… Gabelli highlighted a recent asset swap for the operating efficiencies and rate recognition, yet it gave a private market value foe 2011 of $44 and the report actually gave a $46 private market value for 2012.  This is above and beyond our bullish stance on the greatest water utility in America.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is set to report earnings this week, but one of its larger bulls has trimmed shipment, earnings and revenue targets ahead of earnings. Gabelli maintained a “Buy” but lowered estimates under consensus.

Ariba Inc. (NASDAQ: ARBA) was given a very positive research initiation call, but one which did not get off to a good start.  Barclays initiated coverage this last Monday with a “Buy” rating and a $44 price target as the B2B platform leader is expected to gain market share.  Shares went out the prior week at $36.72 and ended up down at $34.31 on the week.  This is not a cheap stock by any real measurement.  The $44 target is now the street-high call and the consensus price target is only $36.70.

CenturyLink Inc. (NYSE: CTL) just announced the closure of its Savvis acquisition and it has already closed on its Qwest acquisition.  The company offers a high yield for investors and at $38.42 it is well under the 52-week high of $46.87.  It also trades at just under 15-times this year’s expected earnings.  Friday came word that this was downgraded to Underperform as the dubious “Bear of the Day” call at Zacks.

Novellus Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS), the chip equipment and cap-ex player, managed to beat earnings but revenues were soft as the sales were down about 15% to $350.2 million with earnings coming in at $0.79 EPS.  We had estimates from Thomson Reuters of $0.76 EPS and $352.3 million.  That is not such a bad miss on revenues in the current climate, but Novellus said that bookings were down some 25% from the first quarter at $312 million and shipments fell by about 5% to $376.9 million.  The company said that its customers remain cautious and it also expects bookings to continue to fall as PC shipments are soft.  Its guidance for the coming quarter is now $0.60 to $0.75 EPS on $300 to $340 million in revenues, but Thomson Reuters had estimates of $0.86 EPS and $359.7 million in revenues.  Novellus is only a $3.5 billion market cap and its shares are down 5.6% at $33.75 in the after-hours.  Here is how peers in chip cap-ex are being hit:

• KLA-Tencor Corporation (NASDAQ: KLAC) -3% at $40.99 in after-hours $7B market cap);
• Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) -2.5% at $43.76 in after-hours ($5.5B market cap);
• Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) -0.5% at $12.90 indications ($17B market cap).

Microchip Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MCHP) confessed after the close that its sales be about $373.3 million for the quarter, down about 1.5% sequentially and down from a prior forecast for a gain of 1% to 5% sequentially, as its sales activity did not progress as well as expected.  Non-GAAP earnings were put at $0.53 to $0.55 EPS rather  than the prior range of $0.58 to $0.62 EPS.  More importantly, the company is seeing a broad weakness due to auto businesses and due to an inventory correction after Japan’s quake and tsunami.  The company also cited a weaker global economic condition and less-robust computing sector sales. The company is now targeting the September quarter sales to be lower sequentially by the low- to mid-single digits.  Microchip Tech is a $7 billion market cap company and its shares are down by 7.4% at $34.70 in the after-hours.  Here is how some larger peers in chipland are holding up:

• Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) -1.6% at $31.90 ($37B market cap);
• Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) -2.6% at $37.52 ($11.5 billion market cap).

On a broader note, the Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE: SMH) is down about 1.5% at $33.66 in the after-hours session and that is after a 1.4% drop in regular trading today.  Its 52-week range is $24.14 to $36.99.

These two companies today will not likely dominate earnings season entirely for technology and chip stocks, but they are early reporters and the comments may be interpreted in other aspects of tech as well.  Some of the larger companies may not be seeing the same news.  Still, these were the first reports for earnings season in the world of semiconductors and it is setting at least an overall cautious tone for the sector.

JON C. OGG

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Archer Daniels Midland Inc. (NYSE: ADM) maintained Outperform but cut target to $35 at Credit Suisse.
Ariba Inc. (NASDAQ: ARBA) Started as Overweight at Barclays.
Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) Reiterated Hold but cut estimates at Argus.
CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE: CX) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) Reiterated Buy with $24 target at Argus.
Fossil, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Government Properties Income Trust (NYSE: GOV) Cut to Underperform at Wells Fargo.
Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE: HON) Reiterated Buy at BofA/ML.
KLA-Tencor Corporation (NASDAQ: KLAC) Raised to Hold at Citigroup.
Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M) Reiterated Buy as Value at Zacks.
PetMed Express, Inc. (NASDAQ: PETS) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Teekay Tankers Limited (NYSE: TNK) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG