To start with the worst, Frontline is down more than -88% for the year, and its median target price has dropped to $6.00 from $7.25 in late October. At today’s share price of $2.98, the potential upside is slightly more than 100%. DryShips is not much better, with a lower target price of $5.00. At today’s price of $2.37, the implied gain is nearly 111%. Neither Excel nor Diana is as bad, but neither is likely to achieve anywhere near their implied gains of 63% and 46%, respectively. The shipping business has too many ships sailing around at unprofitable day rates. Until that situation resolves itself — not likely until 2013 — anything that resembles value in the shipping business is likely a mirage.

Railroads are faring better because rail traffic is up. The Association of American Railroads reported this morning that November carload traffic on US railroads grew 4% compared with November 2010. Intermodal traffic (containers) grew by 3.7% year-over-year. The largest increase came in motor vehicle carloads, which grew by 42% compared with last year and petroleum product carloads which grew by more than 28%.

Another large gain, more than 30%, came in carloads of crushed stone, sand, and gravel. Because beach sand is the most common material used in hydraulic fracturing of oil and gas wells, it’s probably a reasonable assumption to give the drilling industry credit for the increase.

Of the four railroads, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern have both had target price boosts since late October. Union Pacific’s median target price is $114.00, up from $110.00. At a current price of $102.70, the potential upside in UP’s stock is 11%. The company’s dividend yield of 2.4% is also tied with Norfolk Southern’s for the best in the group.

Norfolk Southern’s median target price is $85.50, up from $82.00. At a current price of $74.90, the stock has a potential upside of 14.5%. With a slightly higher implied gain and an equal dividend yield, Norfolk Southern might be the best bet among the railroads.

In trucking, J.B. Hunt’s median target price fell from $49.00 to $48.00, but that was quite likely due to two brokers dropping coverage. At today’s price of $$45.40, the potential upside for the stock is just 5.7%. The company pays a dividend yield of 1.2%.

Landstar’s median target price is $52.00, up half a dollar from late October, and again likely due to a drop in the number of brokers covering the stock. At today’s price of $45.90, the potential upside for the stock is 13.3%. Landstar pays a dividend yield of 0.5%. Earlier this week, Landstar was downgraded from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ at SunTrust.

Of the two trucking companies, neither has a clear edge over the other. Hunt is more fully valued, but the company reported record results in the third quarter. If Hunt can do that again, then the current target price will be left way behind. Hunt’s strength in intermodal transportation could easily make that happen.

Of all ten stocks reviewed here, Norfolk Southern may be the safest bet, but J.B. Hunt may add more significant growth potential to its relatively limited upside potential.

Paul Ausick

Transportation stocks get a lot more attention as economic bellwethers than they do as market participants. Railroads, ships, and trucks are not particularly glamorous, and the industries are so entrenched that they most resemble utility stocks.

The companies included in today’s overview are CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (NYSE: CP), Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX), DryShips, Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: EXM), Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO), JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT), and LandStar System Inc. (NASDAQ: LSTR).

Of the ten stocks we’re looking at today, only one trades more than 10 million shares a day and most of the others trade less than 3 million.  On the surface, it would seem that all these stocks would more or less trade in parallel. In practice, though, railroads and trucking companies are faring far better than sea-borne shippers. Railroads are hauling more coal, and trucking companies are having trouble meeting demand for their services. Shippers overbuilt their fleets, and the resulting collapse in day rates has been punishing for their top and bottom lines.

Cargo traffic is closely watched at this time of year as a predictor of holiday retail sales. Typically, ocean container shipping headed to the US tips the coming strength of retail sales. This year, container shipments have been somewhat lower, and this month’s totals will really tell the tale. Rail and truck traffic has been strong though, although the shortage of available trucks is diverting more container (intermodal) traffic to the railroads.

All data from Yahoo! Finance, and share prices were collected shortly before noon today.

CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) has a median target price of $27.00 from 24 brokers. Shares are trading today at $22.66, for an implied gain of $4.34, or 19%. CSX’s forward P/E is 11.73 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2.3%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $17.69-$27.06, and at today’s price that’s about 28% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 16% below the 52-week high. CSX met analysts’ expectations when it reported third quarter earnings about 10 days ago. The company noted a 15% jump in intermodal freight revenue, although volume was essentially unchanged from the same period a year ago. CSX said at the time that it does not expect significant growth in the US, but neither does it predict a double-dip recession.

Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) has a median target price of $82.00 from 23 brokers. Shares are trading today at $74.74, for an implied gain of $7.26, or 10%. Norfolk Southern’s forward P/E is 12.91 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2.5%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $57.57-$78.40, and at today’s price that’s about 30% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 5% below the 52-week high. Norfolk Southern hauled 23% more coal in the third quarter than it did a year ago, and its intermodal traffic volume increased by 13%. Like CSX, the company expects modest economic growth in the US going forward. The company’s implied stock price gain is about half that of CSX, but with both coal and intermodal traffic up and growing, Norfolk Southern is more likely to bust through its current target price than the other railroads we’ve looked at today.

Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) has a median target price of $110.00 from 25 brokers. Shares are trading today at $102.35, for an implied gain of $7.65, or 7.5%. Union Pacific’s forward P/E is 13.15 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $77.73-$107.89, and at today’s price that’s about 32% above its 52-week low, posted earlier this morning, and 5% below the 52-week high. Union Pacific posted third quarter earnings a week ago, and its international intermodal shipments were down -12% year-over-year. That implies that retailers are buying less in anticipation of a slower holiday shopping season.

24/7 Wall St. has compiled detailed earnings previews for the following companies: Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS); Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA); ADTRAN Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN); Host Hotels and Resorts Inc. (NYSE: HST); Pepsico Inc. (NYSE: PEP); Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG); J. B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT); J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM); Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY); and Mattel Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT).

Some of these companies will not really seem on the surface to be sector-movers or market-moving companies, but these have been selected because they are the first ones of their peer groups to be reporting earnings. 

We have created a detailed earnings preview for each with consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters and added color in on each for investors to see what exactly is worth consideration this earnings season.  We have also added in recent price history and named where to look for additonal action (or fallout).

Monday, October 10

Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) is the first chip equipment player to report for this earnings season.  it has been a few weeks since we have had earnings reports or guidance in the sector so we will be paying close attention since so many companies that are chip equipment customers have talked down their numbers in recent weeks.  Our belief is that expectations are very low for the quarter ahead. Estimates are $0.68 EPS and $311.9 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.50 EPS and $278.5 million in revenue.  With shares hovering around $30.00 on Friday, the 52-week range is $25.26 to $41.82 and shares were above $36 in early July.  After Novellus reports, we would be watching the following: Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT), KLA-Tencor Corporation (NASDAQ: KLAC), and Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX).

Tuesday, October 11

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) has already talked down aluminum prices and we have already seen slowing demand out of China talked about by many sectors.  Alcoa keeps maintaining that it can double its business by 2020 and we do not expect that to be changed by management even if it guides lower expectations ahead.  Estimates are $0.23 EPS and $6.24 billion in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.23 EPS and $6.11 billion in revenue. At $9.80 on Friday, the 52-week range is $8.45 to $19.47 and this one was above $16 at the start of July.  There are many metals stocks to watch, some in aluminum and some in other metals: Century Aluminum Co. (NASDAQ: CENX), Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (NYSE: RS); Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ: KALU); Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE); and Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE).

Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) beat earnings but looked like a disaster after earnings because of changes to the model and it withdrawing all guidance.  Shares have seen at least two downgrades so far.  Apollo shares are down even worse with a drop of 18% at $40.46; Corinthian Colleges Inc. (NASDAQ: COCO) is down almost 8% at $5.55; DeVry Inc. (NYSE: DV) is down 7.5% at $46.80; ITT Educational Services, Inc.(NYSE: ESI) is down 8.5% at $60.26.

Atlantic Power Corporation (NYSE: AT) is lower after it priced 5,245,000 common shares at a price of US$13.35 per share.  Shares are down only 0.35% at $13.45 and the stock has a 52-week range of $9.63 to $14.38.

EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) is rising on new Greenplum data analysis systems.  Shares are up 3.45 at $21.00 on almost 700,000 shares.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is rising after reporting that two new manufacturing plants are planned; shares are up 2.2% at $140.00.  Just yesterday we highlighted how the solar stock rally was starting to look stretched.

Landstar System Inc. (NASDAQ: LSTR) fell after reporting earnings as it will take an additional contingent price on its NLM acquisition despite revenue growth of 24%.  Shares are down 5.25 at $36.88 but volume is thin.

MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) had a monster secondary yesterday and is seeing a slight bounce from the sell-off after being defended: shares were raised to Outperform at BMO.  The casino shares are up 1.1% at $12.24 but that is on more than 200,000 shares and is on the heels of a drop from $13.61 to $12.10 on the secondary dilution.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is surging on reports tha AOL Inc. (NYSE: AOL) and/or private equity buyers are lining up around the Internet property.  Yahoo! shares are up 14.5% at $17.46 after a strong Wednesday.  No real move has been seen in AOL this morning. Yahoo! has traded more than 13 million shares with about 45 minutes until the market opens.

SIRIUS XM Radio inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) is up yet again after Moody’s raised its rating on a debt refinancing that priced very well for the company last night.  Shares are up 1.4% at $1.42 on over 1 million shares and the high of he year was put in yesterday at $1.44.

ZAGG Incorporated (NASDAQ: ZAGG) is surging after reporting that earnings will beat expectations.  Shares are up almost 30% at $6.65 versus a 52-week range of $1.90to $7.00.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

The truckers are tracking well today though.  YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) is so leveraged to news in the transport space that its shares are up almost 17% at $3.56 on more than 13 million shares of stock.  Other truckers are doing well too. JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT) is at $32.36, up about 5.5%; Con-way Inc. (NYSE: CNW) is at $44.09, up about 4.7%; and Landstar System Inc. (NASDAQ: LSTR) is at $38.49, up almost 3%.

JON C. OGG
September 11, 2009

American Electric (NYSE: AEP) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
CME Group Inc. (NYSE: CME) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair.
First Niagara Financial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FNFG) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Landstar System Inc. (NASDAQ: LSTR) Cut to Neutral at Baird.
Royal Gold (NASDAQ: RGLD) Raised to Sector Perform at CIBC.
SandRidge Energy, Inc. (NYSE: SD) started as Buy at SunTrust Robinson.
Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Thomson Reuters (NYSE: TRI) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.

Jon C. Ogg

• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
• Airgas (ARG) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
• Emerson Electric (EMR) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
• Landstar System (LSTR) Raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
• Spectranetics Corp. (SPNC) Raised To Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
• Wells Fargo (WFC) Raised To Neutral From Underperform By Baird.

Jon C. Ogg
September 30, 2008