When the stores reported first quarter earnings, the preponderance of guidance pointed to slower sales in the second quarter likely based on sales pulled forward into the first quarter due to warm weather. But it could be the case that falling gasoline prices are giving sales a lift in May that could continue through June. According to the latest report from Retail Metrics, retailers are on track to post a comparable store sales gain of 3.6% in May, excluding the negative effect of lost sales at Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) due to its being dropped by pharmacy benefits management firm Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX).

We looked at a dozen retailers with an eye toward discerning value opportunities for investors: Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), J.C. Penney Company Inc. (NYSE: JCP), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO), Abercrombie & Fitch Inc. (NYSE: ANF), The TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX), and Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG).

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) traded at $84.14 and has a market value of around $37 billion. The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $86.83 and the 52-week range is $70.22-$92.10. Costco has a dividend yield of 1.3%. The implied upside to the consensus target is just 3%, and we would note that the target is below the 52-week high.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) traded at $64.65 and has a market value of around $220 billion. The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $65.28 and the 52-week range is $48.31-$64.88 (new high set today). Walmart has a dividend yield of 2.5%. The implied upside to the consensus target is barely 1%, but we would note that the target is still above the 52-week high.

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) traded at $56.84 and has a market value of around $38 billion. The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $63.65 and the 52-week range is $45.28-$58.95. Target has a dividend yield of 2.1%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 12%, and we note again that the target is above the 52-week high.

So far this morning we have sales figures from Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), Target Inc. (NYSE: TGT), Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Stage Stores Inc. (NYSE: SSI), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Stein Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: SMRT), Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA), Buckle Inc. (NYSE: BKE), and Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ).

Costco reported same-store sales growth of 4%, compared with a Thomson/Reuters estimate of 5.1% growth. Total sales rose 7%, and same-store sales excluding gasoline and currency effects rose 5% in April.

Target reported same-store sales growth of 1.1%, far short of an estimate of 2.8%.

Macy’s same-store sales growth came in at 1.2%, against an estimate of 1.9% growth.

Gap stores reported same-store sales fell -2% in April, compared with an estimated drop of -0.8%.

Stage Stores posted a same-store sales drop of -1%, much better than a forecast drop of -4.8%.

Limited Brands posted same-store sales growth of 6%, nicely above the estimate of 4%. The company also raised the lower end of its EPS guidance for the first quarter from $0.35 to $0.38. The top end of the range remained at $0.40.

Stein Mart posted a smaller-than-expected same-store sales drop of -1.6%, compared with the consensus estimate of -2.1%. For the first quarter same-store sales were down -0.4%.

Wet Seal reported that same-store sales dropped by -9.6% in April, compared with an estimated decline of -9%. For the first quarter, same-store sales are down -7.7% and total sales are down -5.2%.

Buckle posted same-store sales growth of 1% in April, compared with an estimate of 0.9%. Total sales grew 9.9% during the first quarter.

Zumiez reported same-store sales growth of 10.1% in April, compared with an estimate of 6.8% growth. Same-store sales for the first quarter rose 12.9% compared with the first quarter of 2011. Total sales rose 19.8% in April compared to April 2011.

Paul Ausick

Some highlights:

• Costco sales rose 8%, but shares are flat shortly before noon.
• Macy’s posted a same-store sales jump of 4.6%, and the company’s shares hit a 52-week high of $38.38.
• TJX’s sales rose 9% and the shares posted a new 52-week high of $37.07.
• Ross Stores’ sales jumped 9% as well, and the company’s stock put up a new 52-week high of $54.27.
• Buckle’s same-store sales rose a whopping 14.8%, and the shares posted a new 52-week high of $48.43.
• Zumiez’s sales rose 14.2% in February and the stock put up a new 52-week high of $33.84.

The biggest change came from Gap Stores. The company posted a same-store sales jump of 4%, when analysts were expecting a shortfall of -1.4%. Shares posted a new 52-week high of $26.00, more than $2/share above the previous high.

Kohl’s and Wet Seal were the only stores on this list to show sales dips, but Wet Seal’s dip was only half what had been expected. Kohl’s was expected to break even, but same-store sales fell -0.8%.

Paul Ausick

The Retail Metrics analysis has lifted expectations for Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT), Limited Brands, Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), and even Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ).

The report said, “As noted in previous reports, several catalysts gave rise to solid traffic and conversion levels throughout the month.  Merchandise and food sales were strong around Super Bowl weekend at the beginning of the month.  Valentine’s Day related gift selling looked to be quite good with the National Retail Federation calling for a high-single digit increase in sales.”

JON C. OGG

Included in the previews are some pricing data and color on each preview.  Estimates are the consensus targets from Thomson Reuters.

Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) is now up 35% from last year’s low and within about 6% of a 52-week high after many of the chip names have had phenomenal 2012 moves.  Estimates are $0.48 EPS on $662.3 million in sales.

Angie’s List Inc. (NASDAQ: ANGI) is set to see its first public earnings release.  We have always wondered about its lack of earnings as sort of unacceptable, but so far Wall Street has stayed by it.  Estimates are -$0.11 EPS on $25.38 million in sales.  At $15.20, the post-IPO range is $10.77 to $18.75.

Boston Beer Co. (NYSE: SAM) remains at a premium value on its earnings at 24-times expected 2012 earnings estimates. Estimates are $1.12 EPS and $131.6 million in sales.

Chico’s FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS) is still trying to get its ship back in order.  Estimates are $0.11 EPS and $546.66 million in sales.

Clean Harbors Inc. (NYSE: CLH) has remained highly valued and it has recently split its stock after an incredible share move in recent years.  Estimates are $0.48 EPS and $506.04 million in sales.      4Q   0.49

Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX) is still pending a review by the FTC in its attempt to acquire Medco.  Many feel that the deal could be blocked.  Earnings estimates are $0.85 EPS on sales of $11.6 billion.

Fluor Corp. (NYSE: FLR) still remains well off of its highs and is still at a premium at 16.5-times expected 2012 earnings for this infrastructure design leader.  Estimates are $0.82 EPS and $6.38 billion in sales.

Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) is expected to report $0.66 EPS on $769.9 million in sales.  The turnaround continues here as it continues to move away from being dependent upon Garmin sales for in-car navigation.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) is still just getting a plan underway for its Meg Whitman-lead turnaround.  Estimates are $0.87 EPS on $30.7 billion in sales.

Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD) is expected to post $1.46 EPS and $3.47 billion in sales.

Pan American Silver Corporation (NASDAQ: PAAS) is expected to report earnings of $0.51 EPS on $229.59 million in revenues.  We will be looking for its cost per ounce of production in silver.

SINA Corp. (NASDAQ: SINA) is expected to report $0.21 EPS on $129.34 million in sales. This stock remains down by more than half from last-year’s highs.

TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) remains at a premium valuation and shares hit a new all-time high on Tuesday.  Estimates are $0.62 EPS on $6.72 billion in sales.

Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is expected to report $0.02 EPS on $360.8 million in sales.  Home builders are profitable again, often from ‘other’ activities.  Shares just hit a new 52-week high on Tuesday.

Zale Corporation (NYSE: ZLC) is expected to post its “money quarter” that includes the holiday sales.  Estimates are $0.77 EPS on $657.38 million in revenue.  Keep in mind that this company is still expected to lose money for its full year ending in July.

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JON C. OGG

AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) Raised to Outperform with $12 target at Credit Suisse.
Alcatel-Lucent, S.A. (NYSE: ALU) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) Raised to Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann.
Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Astoria Financial Corporation (NYSE: AF) Cut to UNderweight at JPMorgan.
Aurizon Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AZK) named as Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE: DRI) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Huntington Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: HBAN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV (NYSE: PHG) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LTD) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR) Started as Hold at Argus.
Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Unilever PLC (NYSE: UL) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
VimpelCom Ltd. (NYSE: VIP) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
WebMD Health Corporation (NASDAQ: WBMD) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
WESCO International (NYSE: WCC) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

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JON C. OGG

Teen stores Buckle and Zumiez battered expectations, while Gap and Wet Seal both missed expectations badly.

Data from CNBC.

Read the ten best online stores this holiday
Read the ten worst online stores this holiday 

To put those customer service rankings in context, we looked at how the parent companies that own the websites have performed recently.  We found that a strong customer service rating often coincides with a company that has widely regarded brands.

It begs the question: Does Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) have such a high customer service ranking because so many consumers love the Apple brands? Or, is Apple’s customer service for online shoppers really superior to that of other e-commerce businesses? Apple is tied for second place in the index. Amazon.com is in first place. It also has a sterling reputation with consumers, as do some of its major products like the Kindle.

At the bottom of the ForeSee index are Gap (NYSE: GPS), Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Overstock (NASDAQ: OSTK). Gap recently said it would close 21% of its U.S. flagship stores. Sony has had trouble gaining sales for its PCs, games, smartphone and TV products. Overstock, an also-ran online department store, was founded in the days of the dial-up internet. It is hard to see how any of these could be at the top of the list. Or, perhaps if they were at the top of the list, they would not be in such deep trouble now.

ForeSee’s E-retail Satisfaction Index included the top 40 retailers by sales. The company surveyed 8,500 customers between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Despite its shortcomings, 24/7 Wall St. used the data from ForeSee as a foundation, because it is a reasonable measurement of the experience that consumers have with specific e-commerce sites, whether those sites are part of highly successful companies or ones on the verge of failure.

There is also some evidence that a few troubled retailers have actually performed well online. Whether that success is enough to save the companies themselves is impossible to tell. One such example is Avon (NYSE: AVP), with online service that is tied for second among all e-commerce sites in the ForeSee index. But Avon recently posted a disastrous quarter, and its CEO of 12 years was dismissed. Similarly, JCPenney’s (NYSE: JCP) online operations’ customer satisfaction is equal to Apple’s, which is also tied for second place in the ForeSee rankings. However, JCPenney has lost sales to big-box retailers such as Walmart (NYSE: WMT) for years. It is worth noting that JCPenney just hired the head of retail stores at Apple to turn the bricks-and-mortar retailer around. Apple is one of the few companies that was successful online long before it began to build physical stores.

These are the the companies with the best and worst online customer satisfaction. To draw our conclusions about why they are on the list and what the relationship is between the companies and their e-commerce operations, we examined three factors: the ForeSee satisfaction data, the annual sales of each of the companies, and the amount of traffic each site had in November — the most recent month measured by audience research firm Compete.com. Foresee describes its rating as “Average customer satisfaction with the top 40 U.S. e-retail websites increased by one point this year to tie 2009’s all time high score of 79 on the study’s 100-point scale. Satisfaction scores for individual e retailers span a 16-point  range, from a high of 88 (Amazon) to a low of 72 (Overstock).”

Founded in 1983 as a small boutique selling Mexican folk art and cotton sweaters on Sanibel Island in Florida, Chico’s now operates more than 1,200 outlets and boutiques throughout the U.S., selling casual-to-dressy apparel and related accessories under the Chico’s brand, White House/Black Market and Soma Intimates names, catering mostly to women over the age of 35.

Although net sales for the third quarter ended October 29 increased 11.5% year-over-year to $539 million, the Fort Myers, Fla.-based retailer posted quarterly earnings of 16 cents per share, lower than the consensus analyst estimate of 20 cents. Absent traffic, the company was forced to increase promotional activities and offer aggressive discounts to move merchandise, especially at its namesake stores. Gross margin fell 100 basis points to 56% and inventory increased 38% to $247 million.

Though gross margin is forecast to fall 100 to 200 basis points in the fourth quarter (reflecting a need to push-out end-of-year merchandise through discounting), management insists the decline is not related to execution problems. Chief executive officer David Dyer pointed out on the third-quarter 2011 conference call with analysts that the White House and Soma brands “delivered record sales and margins in the third quarter, thanks to a more fashionable mix of lingerie, dresses and beauty.”

“It’s the economy, stupid!” ~ Democratic strategist James Carville

All four brands — from dinner party fashions at Boston Proper to pajamas and “Vanishing Back” bras available at Soma Intimates — are resonating with shoppers, said chief financial officer Pamela Knous on the earnings call. “And I am proud to say,” declared Knous, that the 11.5% increase in sales “represents the tenth consecutive quarter of positive comparables.”

What Knous did not say was that consolidated sales comparables grew only 3.7%. Her double-digit growth comment reflected increases from new store openings — not actual organic growth at locations open more than one year!

Even more troubling, although new traffic was up for the combined Chicos and Soma Intimates brands, which accounted for 66% of quarterly revenue, comparables grew only 0.6%, compared to sales growth of 3.6% last year. Knous said the slowdown reflected the Chico’s customer’s “cautious purchasing behavior in light of continuing uncertain economic conditions.”

“When I see a bird that walks like a duck and swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, I call that bird a duck.” ~ American poet James Whitcomb Riley (1849 – 1916)

Notwithstanding, the Chico’s namesake brand, average dollar sales and transaction counts are supposed to be up across all other brands, according to management. Why, then, will the company not break out segment profit and loss (P&L) statements?

Looking to extend its customer’s experience to intimate apparel, a $13.5 billion market (led by Victoria’s Secret’s commanding 25% share), Chico’s has grown the Soma label from 10 stores in 2005 to more than 200. Given the company’s ambitions are no longer “a secret,” why should the brand’s contribution to P&L still be considered such — unless discount pricing is driving sales growth — and eating into profits?

Management contends that there is space for another specialty lingerie brand. Though sales and profits are sizzling these days at industry bellwether Victoria’s Secret, owned by Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD), the playing field is not level for an upstart like Chico’s: Soma Intimates does not have the real estate. With just one-fifth as many stores, the company cannot similarly leverage product campaigns (do not expect an NBC runway show in primetime anytime soon). Additionally, deep-discounters like Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) and Kohls (NYSE: KSS), with respective market shares of 17% and 8%, are battling for the budget-constrained pocketbooks of shoppers (looking for bargains) too. Ergo, Chico’s promulgations of full pricing and fashion parading hand-in-hand at Soma Intimates, in my opinion, is just fantasy talk.

On the earnings call, Nomura retail analyst Paul Lejuez was ignored when he specifically asked Dyer or Knous to detail the P&L impact of Soma Intimates on quarterly income. The company did not return my call seeking comment, too.

Troubling Trends Ahead

There are stormy headwinds blowing toward Chico’s, which management — whether deliberately or blithely — refuses to address:

• “Excluding $3.5 million of non-recurring, after-tax Boston Proper acquisition and integration cost, earnings per diluted share were $0.18 compared to $0.16 last year, a 13% increase,” said Knous. “Our best third quarter earnings per share results since 2006.” If this is Chicos’ best — I’d hate to see “average” performance. The quality of the company’s earnings is suspect. Actual net income year-on-year fell 8.2% to $26.46 million, according to regulatory filings. Share-net income received an artificial boost because actual (weighted) share count outstanding fell by 10 million in the last year due to open-market stock repurchases.
• In total, the company should exit the year at 1,250 stores, an increase of about 8% in square footage. However, in-store inventory is up some 17% per square foot, which suggests a continued reliance on aggressive promotions to push out seasonal merchandise — and a delay in margin turnarounds.
• Further evidence of a disconnect with female shoppers is found in days inventory outstanding (DIO), a performance metric that measures how long it takes inventory to be replaced on store shelves. In the third quarter, DIO rose year-over-year from 73.5 days to 81 days. Part of the cash conversion cycle, an increase in DIO whispers a liquidity crisis could be in the wind, as Chico’s inventory accounts for almost 46% of current assets (of $543.5 million).

“The best offense is having the right product for the customers.” ~ Chicos CEO David Dyer

Management believes that Chico’s has sufficient capital — cash flow from operations and existing cash and marketable securities balances — needed for the 100 (plus) new store openings in 2012 ($100 – 120 million), plus continued investment associated with the Soma brand, store remodel/expansions and cash required for inventory levels associated with this growth. Additionally, the company has no long-term debt and, if necessary, an untapped bank credit-line totaling $70 million.

Cash and equivalents totaling $195 million plus year-to-date operations that threw off $181 million suggest that liquidity should be sufficient to weather more of the same soft retail environment predicted for 2012 (including continued pressure on margins from promotional activities). That said, the company is spending money like a drunken sailor: $212 million acquisition of Boston Proper last fall, $70 million in dividend payouts, $176 million stock repurchases of 13.7 million shares (since August 2010) and the just-announced $200 million new stock buyback program.

Strong quarterly results at Limited Brands and Ann Inc (NYSE: ANN), parent company of Ann Taylor and LOFT brands, demonstrate that even in a weak economy customers will pay “full-price” for the right products. However, in my opinion, the company has overestimated its own pricing power. Consequently, if trouble follows the company into 2013, build-outs planned for Boston Proper and Soma could grind to a halt. As the share price of Chico’s FAS is down some 36% from its 52-week high of $16.60, consensus among investors would be to agree — and flee.

David J Phillips

Limited Brands’ same-store sales rose 7%, compared with a consensus estimate of 4.4%. Net sales fell by -2.3%, however, from $893 million a year ago to $872.6 million. The company also announced a $2/share special dividend to be paid on December 23rd to shareholders of record on December 12th.

The Talbot’s Inc. (NYSE: TLB) reported third-quarter earnings this morning and posted an adjusted EPS loss of -$0.22, compared with a consensus estimate of an EPS loss of -$0.16. Same-store sales fell by -4% in November. Talbot’s has closed 35 store locations so far this year and plans to close a total of 110 locations by the end of its 2013 fiscal year.

Costco’s same-store sales rose 7%, excluding gasoline and currency effects. Including gasoline, sales were up 9%. Analysts were expecting a rise of 6.5%.

Target posted a same-store sales gain of 1.8% in November, but analysts were looking for a gain of 2.8%. The company’s CEO said that he expects December to offer a “competitive and promotional environment as consumers continue to focus on value.”

Macy’s same-store sales rose 4.8% last month, and total sales were up 5.3%. The consensus estimate for same-store sales was an increase of 4.1%.

Dillard’s posted a same-store sales jump of 3%, in-line with the average estimate.

Nordstrom reported November same-store sales rose 5.6%, compared with an average analyst estimate of 5%. Total sales rose nearly 12% in November.

Kohl’s reported that November same-store sales fell -6.2%, while analysts were expecting a 2% increase. The CEO called the results “disappointing,” and said that the company expects to benefit from customers seeking value during the remainder of the holiday shopping season.

Gap same-store sales fell by -5%, more than the analysts’ expectation of a -4.3% decline. The company’s CEO expects December to “to remain fiercely competitive and highly promotional.”

Ross posted a same-store sales increase of 5% in November, better than the 3.7% that analysts were expecting. The company said it expects a 3%-4% increase in December as well.

Penney’s same-store sales fell -2% in November, compared with a -1.6% decline expected by the analysts. Total sales also fell by nearly -6% in the month.

TJX reported same-store sales growth of 4%, in-line with the average estimate. The company’s CEO said that the store would have performed better but for the warmer weather which put off winter clothes buying.

Lululemon reported third-quarter earnings today, noting that same-store sales jumped 16% in the quarter. Shares are down more than -11% in the first half-hour of trading this morning. Here’s our coverage of the company’s earnings report.

Stage Stores reported same-store sales rose 2.3%, compared with an estimate for a flat month. Total sales rose 4.3%, and the company’s CEO said that the final week of the month was “very strong.”

Pier One released third quarter sales figures today, and same-store sales for the quarter ending November 27th rose 7%. The company said quarterly EPS would be $0.20-$0.21, compared with the consensus EPS estimate of $0.18. Same-store sales for the holiday weekend were up 10% over last year.

Paul Ausick