24/7 Wall St. » LULU

24/7 Wall St. Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades of the Week (MO, ANGI, AAPL, CIT, GS, GMCR, HUN, KKD, LULU, NOK, SHLD, URBN, VZ, WSM, HOGS)

Administrator — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 13:35:49 +0000

This was the first week after the holidays and many analyst calls were made this week with updated outlooks for 2012. 24/7 Wall St. saw many influential analyst calls this week with either long term ramifications or which caused big moves in the underlying stocks.

We have covered this in more detailed summaries below, but the following included the top stock upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen in this last week: Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO); Angie’s List, Inc. (NASDAQ: ANGI); Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL); CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT); Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS); Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR); Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN); Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. (NYSE: KKD); Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU); Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK); Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD); Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN); Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ); Williams-Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM); and Zhongpin, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOGS).

We have given a summary and notes on each below.

Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) could be in for a 15% drop now that shares became overvalued per the Barron’s cover story to kick off 2012 and Davenport downgraded the stock also.

Angie’s List, Inc. (NASDAQ: ANGI) had a rough week after its quiet period ended from its late 2011 IPO. The stock closed out 2011 at $16.10 and ended the week down at $13.23 for a loss of about 18%. Analyst initiation summary as follows:

Neutral with $18 target at BofA/ML;
Sector Perform with $17 target at RBC;
Perform with $16 target at Oppenheimer;
Buy with $22 target at ThinkEquity;
Buy with $21 target at Stifel Nicolaus;
Buy with $19 target at Janney Capital Markets.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) may have just been a reiterated call, but this was the $560 price target call from Canaccord Genuity. Apple’s price target was also lowered to $513 from $530 at Morgan Keegan.

CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT) was noted as a “if, then” possible takeover candidate in a SunTrust Robinson Humphrey call this week that is frankly hard to agree with.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) was among the banking sector downgrades this week, although shares still managed to close on a positive note if you just compare the price to the prior Friday. Meredith Whitney, Wells Fargo, and Credit Suisse all gave negative calls with downgrades or lower sales and earnings.

Filed under: Analyst Calls, Research, The Week, Trading Alert Tagged: AAPL, ANGI, CIT, GMCR, GS, HOGS, HUN, KKD, LULU, MO, NOK, SHLD, URBN, VZ, WSM

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (CSCO, DO, LVS, LULU, PM, SLB, CIEN, COST, SFD, LAYN, KFY, DMAN, AFFY, DANG, IVC, PNCL, TSLA)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 21:08:15 +0000

Stocks opened lower this morning and trailed mostly lower throughout the day. Today’s wholesale inventory reported showed a gain of 1.6% and the initial jobless claims were substantially lower than expectations of 395,000, at 381,000. The two reports probably cancelled each other out as word hit the street that Europe is forecasting weaker growth and that today’s expected interest rate reduction was agreed with less than a unanimous vote by the ECB. The stress test results for European banks were released today, causing shares in some European banks to fall. WTI crude has fallen by more than $2 to $98.33/barrel and Brent crude is also down by about $1.65 at $107.86. Gold is down nearly -2%, at $1,710.40.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 198 points to 11,997.93 (-1.63%), the NASDAQ fell nearly 53 points (-1.99%) to 2,596.38, and the S&P 500 fell -2.11% or nearly 27 points to 1,234.35.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) reiterated as ‘buy’ with a price target of $24 at Argus. Other ratings actions today include Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (NYSE: DO) started as ‘sell’ with a target price of $70 at Goldman Sachs; Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) cut to ‘neutral’ at Janney; Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) restarted as ‘buy’ at Sterne Agee; Philip Morris International, Inc. (NYSE: PM) cut from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ at Nomura; and Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) started as ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs.

Here are today’s post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) is up 2.7% at $12.23; Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) is down -1.3% at $86.33; Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NYSE: SFD) is down -2.6% at $24.29; Layne Christensen Co. (NASDAQ: LAYN) is down -4.1% at $23.61; and Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY) is down -8% at $15.77.

Other standouts from today include the following shares:

DemandTec, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMAN) is up nearly 56% at $13.15. The cloud-software company has accepted a takeover bid from IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM) of $13.50/share, a 57% premium over yesterday’s closing price.

Affymax, Inc. (NASDAQ: AFFY) is up more than 38% at $8.10. The US FDA has approved the company’s anemia drug for dialysis patients suffering from chronic kidney failure.

E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc. (NYSE: DANG) is up nearly 24% at $5.76. The Chinese e-commerce company has announced that it will issue an e-reader later this month and split content revenue with producers, keeping 40% for itself.

Invacare Corp. (NYSE: IVC) is down more than -25% at $15.39, after posting a new 52-week low earlier today. The medical supplies maker is in danger of having the US FDA close down some of its operations because Invacare has failed to comply with quality standards.

Pinnacle Airlines Corp. (NASDAQ: PNCL) is down about -23% at $1.47, after posting a new 52-week low of $1.40 earlier today. The regional airlines has initiated a program to cut costs and raise liquidity.

Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is down nearly -3.5% at $30.75. The electric car maker’s stock was downgraded by Morgan Stanley from ‘overweight’ to ‘underweight’ and the target price was slashed from $70 to $44.

Stay tuned for Friday. Here are some noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – International trade report for October
9:55 a.m. – Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: AFFY, CIEN, COST, CSCO, DANG, DMAN, DO, IVC, KFY, LAYN, LULU, LVS, PM, PNCL, SFD, SLB, TSLA

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (CELL, CSCO, DECK, DO, FTE, HTS, HWAY, HERO, LVS, LULU, MPEL, NRG, PM, SLB, SAH, STFC, VE, VRSN, WFT, YUM)

Administrator — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 13:21:30 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this Thursday morning.

Brightpoint Inc. (NASDAQ: CELL) Reiterate as Buy with a $14 price target objective at Canaccord Genuity.
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) Reiterated as Buy with $24 price target objective at Argus.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NASDAQ: DECK) Reiterated as Buy with a $122 price target objective at Canaccord Genuity.
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (NYSE: DO) Started as Sell with a $70 target price objective at Goldman Sachs.
France Telecom (NYSE: FTE) Cut to Underperform and named as Bear of the Day by Zacks Investment Research.
Hatteras Financial Corporation (NYSE: HTS) Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee.
Healthways Inc. (NASDAQ: HWAY) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Hercules Offshore, Inc. (NASDAQ: HERO) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) Cut to Neutral at Janney Capital Markets.
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) Reinitiated as Buy at Stern Agee.
Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) Raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG) Cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
Philip Morris International, Inc. (NYSE: PM) Cut to Neutral from Buy at Nomura.
Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Sonic Automotive, Inc. (NYSE: SAH) named as value stock of the day by Zacks Investment Research.
State Auto Financial (NASDAQ: STFC) Raised to Buy from Neutral at Janney Capital Markets.
Veolia Environnement S.A. (NYSE: VE) Cut to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
VeriSign, Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSN) Raised to Outperform and featured as the Bull of the Day by Zacks Investment Research.
Weatherford International Ltd. (NYSE: WFT) Started as Buy with a $22 price target objective at Goldman Sachs.
Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM) Reiterated Buy with $65 fair value target at Janney Capital Markets.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: CELL, CSCO, DECK, DO, FTE, HERO, HTS, HWAY, LULU, LVS, MPEL, NRG, PM, SAH, SLB, STFC, VE, VRSN, WFT, YUM

24/7 Wall St. Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades of the Week (AVL, BRK-B, CRZO, DPZ, GILD, GT, GOOG, GMCR, HPQ, LULU, RIMM, SINA, WDC)

Administrator — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 12:31:31 +0000

This last week had some very interesting and influential analyst calls. We compile summaries of many top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations each morning from Wall Street research calls and we then review these at the end of each week. Those calls which stand out the most become the Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades of the Week. This was a wild week and ended up being a massive gainer due to the coordinated central banking efforts meant at keeping liquidity in the capital markets in Europe.

The top calls of the week were seen in the following companies: Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AMEX: AVL); Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B); Carrizo Oil & Gas (NASDAQ: CRZO); Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (NYSE: DPZ); Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD); Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (NYSE: GT); Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG); Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR); Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ); Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU); Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM); Sina Corporation (NASDAQ: SINA); and Western Digital Corporation (NYSE: WDC).

We have outlined the research summaries here on each, and we have added color or linked to more details on the calls if applicable.

Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AMEX: AVL) is considered the speculative step child in the field of rare-earth metals. Still, this week came coverage from Citigroup with a “Buy” rating this last Monday. The prior closing price had been $2.63 and the stock ramped mid-week. The high close was $3.34 on Wednesday even though it closed down over 5% on Friday at $3.05. The high close in the week would have given a gain of 27% and the gain for the week was still up 16%. The 52-week range is $2.29 to $10.11, making this a leveraged call with huge upside if things work out at the company.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B) very rarely shows up in research calls, so it was a surprise when Zacks came out and named Warren Buffett conglomerate as the Bull of the Day with a $91.00 target for the next six-months.

Carrizo Oil & Gas (NASDAQ: CRZO) was only a reiterated Buy rating on Thursday by Canaccord Genuity but the implications offer huge upside if the firm is right. The firm called it a top small cap idea with multiple ways to win and with a “valuation too tepid.” The new $49.00 price target implies upside of 71%.

Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) was a cautious call because of valuation, but it may offer insight into how much investors should be willing to pay for the pizza delivery leader. The stock was started as Hold at KeyBanc on Friday, which was also the day that this hit a 5-year high. 24/7 Wall St. originally went out with the “buy the value here” call early in 2011 when shares were under $20.00 and we had already taken this one off the list because of value concerns. Friday’s call may point to more and more peak-values here.

Filed under: Analyst Calls, The Week, Value Investing Tagged: AVL, BRK-B, CRZO, DPZ, GILD, GMCR, GOOG, GT, HPQ, LULU, RIMM, SINA, WDC

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (LULU, CLF, DPZ, WNR, SINA, GES, BIG, ZUMZ, RY, BNS, YRCWD, WDC, RIMM, THC, JASO)

Paul Ausick — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 21:12:02 +0000

Stocks got off to a good start this morning following the Labor Department’s report on non-farm payrolls, up slightly less than expected at 120,000 new jobs, and an unexpected drop in US unemployment from 9% to 8.6%. Also supporting prices this morning was news that the European Central Bank would lend 100-200 million euros to the IMF to hand out to debtor nations in the Eurozone. Gains peaked in the early morning and have remained up only modestly since about noon. The dollar strengthened against both the euro and the yen, keeping gains for both crude oil and gold at under 1%. Crude oil is trading at $100.83/barrel and gold is trading at $1,747.10/ounce just before today’s close.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down less than 1 point to 12,019.42 (-0.01%), the NASDAQ rose less than 1 point (0.03%) to 2,626.93, and the S&P 500 fell 0.02% or less than 1 point to 1,244.28. Folks, that’s flat!

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) raised to ‘buy’ at KeyBanc. Other ratings action Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLF) raised to ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; Domino’s Pizza Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) started as ‘hold’ at KeyBanc; Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) raised to ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; Sina Corp. (NASDAQ: SINA) raised to ‘buy’ at Deutsche Bank; and Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES) cut to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading:
Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE: BIG) is down -8.6%% at $36.34; Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) is up 23.9% at $28.95; Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY) is up 3.4% at $47.82; and Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS) is down -3.1% at $48.08.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCWD) is up 29.7% at $12.61. The freight hauler concluded a 1-for-300 reverse split that drove the share price to $9 from $0.03.

Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) is up about 7% at $31.30. The computer disk drive maker announced that it was resuming operations at one of its flooded Thai plants and raised its revenue estimate for the current quarter. More details here.

Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) is down about -9.6% at $16.79. The smartphone and tablet maker announced an inventory writedown of $485 million for unsold PlayBook tablets and said that full-year earnings would be lower. Detailed coverage here.

Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE: THC) is down more than -10% at $4.20. The health care facilities operator likely is suffering from a lowered target price from BMO Capital Markets with rating of ‘market perform’.

JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) is down nearly -7% at $1.74. The solar PV maker is likely giving back gains made over the past two days. The was little reason for the gain in the first place, so that investors are taking it back should be no surprise.

Stay tuned for Monday. We have noted a speech due from Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans and short-term Treasury bill auctions in the morning. Here are other noteworthy events scheduled for Monday (all times Eastern):

10:00 a.m. – Census Bureau factory orders report
10:00 a.m. – Industrial Supply Management non-manufacturing index

Have a great weekend.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: BIG, BNS, CLF, DPZ, GES, JASO, LULU, RIMM, RY, SINA, THC, WDC, WNR, YRCWD, ZUMZ

3 Better Outlooks for Lululemon (LULU)

Administrator — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 14:08:26 +0000

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) was an unusual disappointment with earnings. The company is still growing rapidly, but not quite at the same blistering pace as before. All markets mature and it may seem silly that 16% growth in same-store sales somehow managed to generate a shortfall in revenues.

Today we have three different firms which are chomping at the bit to get into Lululemon. Apparently the valuation has just become too enticing. We show a consensus price target of $55.40 from Thomson Reuters, but that may not quite be adjusted for all of the new analyst price targets.

Barclays raised its rating to OVERWEIGHT from EQUALWEIGHT and it assigned a $58.00 price target objective. Janney Capital Markets has raised the rating to BUY from NEUTRAL and it assigned a fair value target of $57.00 per share. KeyBanc Capital Markets also raised its rating to BUY from UNDERWEIGHT and assigned a price target objective of $58.00 per share.

Lululemon shares are trading up nearly 3% at $48.52 in pre-market trading versus a 52-week range of $25.82 to $64.49. Shares actually went under $44.00 yesterday on the disappointing revenues but they managed to close up at $47.17 as buyers came into the stock.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls, Apparel, Retail Tagged: LULU

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ACI, AMT, BRK-B, CLF, CCI, DE, DPZ, GES, LOW, LULU, SINA, SNN, WNR, WAG, SLF, WPI, TEVA)

Administrator — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 13:19:44 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this Friday morning.

Arch Coal, Inc. (NYSE: ACI) named as Bear of the Day with a $13.00 price target at Zacks.
American Tower Corporation (NYSE: AMT) Started as Outperform at Macquarie.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.B) named as Bull of the Day with a $91.00 price target at Zacks.
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLF) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Crown Castle International Corporation (NYSE: CCI) Started as Outperform at Macquarie.
Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) named as value stock of the day at Zacks.
Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) Started as Hold at KeyBanc.
Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) Raised to Buy at KeyBanc.
Sina Corporation (NASDAQ: SINA) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
Smith & Nephew plc (NYSE: SNN) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Argus made changes to its institutional model portfolio: added shares of Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) and sold out of shares of Sun Life Financial Inc. (NYSE: SLF).

Credit Suisse is out positive on generics saying that the news flow on generic Lipitor has obscured the bigger picture on Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: WPI) and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NASDAQ: TEVA). The firm recommends buying WPI after its recent weakness as strong fundamentals just got cheaper. It also recommends buying TEVA for the longer term and as a turnaround story for 2012.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: ACI, AMT, BRK-B, CCI, CLF, DE, DPZ, GES, LOW, LULU, SINA, SLF, SNN, TEVA, WAG, WNR, WPI

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (GOOG, IAG, ERTS, STX, ONXX, CRZO, GIL, BKS, LULU, ISLE, KR, TLB, PEIX, LAVA, CLWR, STNG, HOVNP)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 21:05:52 +0000

Equity markets opened slightly lower this morning, following yesterday’s big share price increases. For most of the day stocks traded slightly lower, although they have moved to a very slight gain in the final hour of trading. China’s purchasing managers index was weaker than expected, which is probably the reason for the slow start this morning, and then new US unemployment claims were higher than expected adding more pressure on prices. The dollar has traded weaker relative to the euro, but strengthened against the yen. Crude oil is trading down marginally at $100.18/barrel and gold is also down slightly at $1,743.870/ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 25 points to 12,020.48 (-0.21%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 6 points (0.22%) to 2,626.20, and the S&P 500 fell -0.19% or more than 2 points to 1,244.58.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) raised to ‘buy’ at Citigroup. Other ratings action included IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE: IAG) started as ‘outperform’ with a $25 price target at Credit Suisse; Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) raised from ‘neutral’ to ‘buy’ at Citigroup; Seagate Technology PLC (NYSE: STX) raised to ‘buy’ at Argus; Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ONXX) cut from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch; and Carrizo Oil & Gas (NASDAQ: CRZO) reiterated ‘buy’ with a new price target of $49 at Canaccord Genuity.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Gildan Activewear Inc. (NYSE: GIL) is down -30.8% at $16.53, after setting a new 52-week low of $16.52; Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) is down -16.9% at $14.50; Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) is down -4.8% at $47.34; Isle of Capri Casinos, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISLE) is down -8.5% at $4.51; The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) is up 1% at $23.41; and The Talbot’s Inc. (NYSE: TLB) is down -17.1% at $1.65, after posting a new 52-week low of $1.63. We have more details on Lululemon’s earnings and on the November sales reports from a number of retailers, including Talbot’s.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX) is up 26.7% at $1.33. The ethanol maker has regained compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements and has increased ownership of its four ethanol production plants to 27%.

Magma Design Automation Inc. (NASDAQ: LAVA) is up more than 25% at $7.16. The design automation firm has agreed to be acquired by Synopsys Inc. (NASDAQ: SNPS) for $7.35/share.

Clearwire Corp. (NASDAQ: CLWR) is up more than 17% at $2.09. The wireless broadband provider received a $1.6 billion investment from its majority owner Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) that will enable Clearwire to meet its $237 million debt payment. We have more details here.

Scorpio Tankers Inc. (NYSE: STNG) are down more than -20% at $5.31. The Monaco-based petroleum shipping company priced a secondary offering this morning at $5.50/share.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NASDAQ: HOVNP) is down more than -14% at $1.31. The homebuilder has been batted around for nearly a year now, and even improving news on construction spending can’t stop the slide.

Stay tuned for Friday. We have noted speeches due from Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. Here’s another noteworthy event scheduled for tomorrow (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – Non-farm payroll report

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: BKS, CLWR, CRZO, ERTS, GIL, GOOG, HOVNP, IAG, ISLE, KR, LAVA, LULU, ONXX, PEIX, STNG, STX, TLB

November Same-Store Sales Mixed, Winners and Losers (LTD, TLB, COST, TGT, M, DDS, JWN, KSS, GPS, ROST, JCP, TJX, LULU, SSI, PIR)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 15:17:59 +0000

Retailers are reporting November sales this morning and the results are decidely mixed. The best report we’ve seen so far this morning is from Limited Brands, Inc. (NYSE: LTD) and the worst is from The Talbot’s Inc. (NYSE: TLB). In between are reports from Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST), J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP), TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU), Stage Stores Inc. (NYSE: SSI), and Pier One Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR)

Limited Brands’ same-store sales rose 7%, compared with a consensus estimate of 4.4%. Net sales fell by -2.3%, however, from $893 million a year ago to $872.6 million. The company also announced a $2/share special dividend to be paid on December 23rd to shareholders of record on December 12th.

The Talbot’s Inc. (NYSE: TLB) reported third-quarter earnings this morning and posted an adjusted EPS loss of -$0.22, compared with a consensus estimate of an EPS loss of -$0.16. Same-store sales fell by -4% in November. Talbot’s has closed 35 store locations so far this year and plans to close a total of 110 locations by the end of its 2013 fiscal year.

Costco’s same-store sales rose 7%, excluding gasoline and currency effects. Including gasoline, sales were up 9%. Analysts were expecting a rise of 6.5%.

Target posted a same-store sales gain of 1.8% in November, but analysts were looking for a gain of 2.8%. The company’s CEO said that he expects December to offer a “competitive and promotional environment as consumers continue to focus on value.”

Macy’s same-store sales rose 4.8% last month, and total sales were up 5.3%. The consensus estimate for same-store sales was an increase of 4.1%.

Dillard’s posted a same-store sales jump of 3%, in-line with the average estimate.

Nordstrom reported November same-store sales rose 5.6%, compared with an average analyst estimate of 5%. Total sales rose nearly 12% in November.

Kohl’s reported that November same-store sales fell -6.2%, while analysts were expecting a 2% increase. The CEO called the results “disappointing,” and said that the company expects to benefit from customers seeking value during the remainder of the holiday shopping season.

Gap same-store sales fell by -5%, more than the analysts’ expectation of a -4.3% decline. The company’s CEO expects December to “to remain fiercely competitive and highly promotional.”

Ross posted a same-store sales increase of 5% in November, better than the 3.7% that analysts were expecting. The company said it expects a 3%-4% increase in December as well.

Penney’s same-store sales fell -2% in November, compared with a -1.6% decline expected by the analysts. Total sales also fell by nearly -6% in the month.

TJX reported same-store sales growth of 4%, in-line with the average estimate. The company’s CEO said that the store would have performed better but for the warmer weather which put off winter clothes buying.

Lululemon reported third-quarter earnings today, noting that same-store sales jumped 16% in the quarter. Shares are down more than -11% in the first half-hour of trading this morning. Here’s our coverage of the company’s earnings report.

Stage Stores reported same-store sales rose 2.3%, compared with an estimate for a flat month. Total sales rose 4.3%, and the company’s CEO said that the final week of the month was “very strong.”

Pier One released third quarter sales figures today, and same-store sales for the quarter ending November 27th rose 7%. The company said quarterly EPS would be $0.20-$0.21, compared with the consensus EPS estimate of $0.18. Same-store sales for the holiday weekend were up 10% over last year.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Apparel, Consumer Goods, Economy, Retail Tagged: COST, DDS, GPS, JCP, JWN, KSS, LTD, LULU, M, PIR, ROST, SSI, TGT, TJX, TLB

Investors Learning to Live with Disappointment in Lululemon (LULU)

Administrator — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 14:02:07 +0000

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) is getting blasted this morning on its guidance after earnings. Nothing can last forever, maybe not even the endless exponential growth of yoga.

The yoga and exercise themed retailer reported that its third quarter earnings came in at $0.27 EPS, up from $0.18 EPS a year ago and versus $0.25 EPS expected from Thomson Reuters. Revenue rose 31% to $230.2 million, but this was against estimates of $235.7 million even if its same-store sales in the quarter rose by 16%.

As far as guidance, the company sees its fourth quarter gains in the low to mid-teens for its same-store sales. Lululemon also said that it saw no substantial pickup in same-store sales in the current quarter as the prior quarter gains were 20%.

The stock is getting pounded on light revenues and declining same-store sales growth. In the pre-market we show that shares are down 12% at $43.65 and the volume is nearing 1 million shares with more than 30 minutes until the market opens. Lulu’s 52-week trading range is $25.82 to $64.49 and the consensus price target from Thomson Reuters was $56.00 before the effects of today’s earnings report.

Nothing lasts forever, even if it is a hard lesson to learn when growth stocks start to see a less robust growth picture after consistently beating estimates in the past.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Apparel, Earnings, Retail Tagged: LULU