Posts for Ticker ‘MA’

Black Friday Gimmicks & Desperation, A Win For Consumers (WMT, BBY, COST, TGT, KSS, GPS, M, JWN, MA, AMZN)

We are right at a week away from the highly awaited Black Friday for 2009’s holiday and Christmas season.  As you likely know, this is THE day that retailers look forward to all year and critically depend upon as an anchor to how each retailer’s full year earnings results turn out.  You may already be tired of Christmas ads and the holidays haven’t even arrived yet.  With over 10% unemployment, a recession-end that doesn’t feel like a recession-end, a very tight discretionary spending budget, and a general lack of consumer confidence, it is no surprise at all that the focus for the Holiday Season in 2009 is one of deals and thrift.

These are not in any particular order, but the promotions have been reviewed at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M), and Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN).  There is also already promotion between MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN).  Admittedly, this is just a sampling of major outlets.

What is amazing is just how much of the deal-making is already out before the holiday season starts as retailers key off of each other.  It is almost impossible to avoid thinking how such a promotional Christmas and Holiday Season in 2009 is going to add pressure to margins at almost all the first-line retailers.
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Amazon (AMZN) And MasterCard (MA) Turn To Social Networks For Holidays

nokThe use of social networks to sell products and services gets more complex by the day. The latest scheme to tap into the swarms of people who congregate at Facebook is a program from MasterCard (NYSE:MA) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

The promotion for the credit card and e-commerce companies will allow consumers to go to a new website. The site will allow people who want to buy gifts for their social network “friends” to find their personal characteristics like age and sex and pick presents accordingly. Read More »

Next Week’s Top 10 Earnings on Deck (CHK, F, KFT, MA, CSCO, CMCSA, QCOM, BRK-A, SIRI, VG)

NYSE Floor ImageEarnings season may be winding down, but next week still has some very important companies that are economic indicators in and of themselves or are key stocks that have broad customer and investor bases.  Picking only ten companies leaves many key stocks out, but we have some here which will appeal to most investors and traders.  Among next week’s top earnings are Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK), Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F), Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA), QUALCOMM Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM),  and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B).

We also have the biggest cult stocks of all with SIRIUS Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) and Vonage Holdings Corp. (NYSE: VG) reporting next week.  We have offered some color on each stock along with chart data where relevant, along with Thomson Reuters consensus estimates.
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Visa Solid, But Not Immune (V, MA)

Visa LogoVisa Inc. (NYSE: V) is reporting some stellar earnings considering the environment and this appears to be the 6th or 7th beat against estimates.  The credit card processing giant posted $0.74 non-GAAP EPS vs. $0.72 EPS estimates from Thomson Reuters.  The company also initiated a share buyback of up to $1 billion.  As far as 2010, the company sees 11% to 15% revenue growth and is comfortable with 20% earnings growth.  There are some metrics still showing growth, but it is obvious that not even the great big Visa is immune to a global recession with a world full of price-sensitive shoppers.  The report is also rubbing off a bit on MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA).
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Top Analyst Upgrades (AMD, AMGN, BDK, BMY, CTXS, KR, MA, PCG, SYMC, V, VMW)

These are the top early-bird analyst upgrades and positive research calls which we have seen from Wall Street early this Monday morning:

Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) Started as Overweight at Barclays.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) Added to Goldman Sachs Top M&A List.
Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS) Raised to Hold at Jefferies.
Kroger (NYSE: KR) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Mastercard (NYSE: MA) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
PG&E (NYSE: PCG) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Polaris (NYSE: PII) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Visa (NYSE: V) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
VMware (NYSE: VMW) Raised to Hold at Jefferies.

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates each morning on analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s and secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG

Top Analyst Upgrades (COF, EBAY, GS, JBLU, LTM, MA, SNDK, UPS, WYNN)

There are still many upgrades coming considering the light and shortened week.  These are this Wednesday’s top early bird analyst upgrades and positive research calls that we have seen:

Capital One (COF) Raised to Buy at Citi.
eBay (EBAY) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein.
Goldman Sachs (GS) Raised to Outperform at JMP Securities.
Jetblue (JBLU) Raised to Buy at Argus.
Life Time Fitness (LTM) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Mastercard (MA) Raised to Hold at Citi.
SanDisk (SNDK) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
UPS (UPS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Raised to ‘Perform’ at Oppenheimer.

JON C. OGG

Top Analyst Upgrades (CSTR, COST, GOL, GOOG, HAR, LOW, MA, TWX, V, WCRX)

These are the early morning analyst upgrades and positive research calls we have seen from Wall Street analysts this Tuesday morning:

Coinstar (CSTR) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Costco (COST) raised to Market Perform at William Blair.
GOL Linhas Areas Inteligentes S.A. (GOL) Raised to Buy at Argus.
Google (GOOG) Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity.
Harman (HAR) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Lowe’s (LOW) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Mastercard (MA) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Time Warner (TWX) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Visa (V) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Warner Chilcott (WCRX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.

JON C. OGG

Credit to Americans Still Declining (V, MA)

Broken Money Merger ImageUnemployment may be improving or getting less bad, but the same is not true for credit and borrowing by consumers if the June trends continue.   The consumer credit report for June has just come out, and there was another decline and revision lower for May.  Outstanding credit fell by an annualized rate of 4.9% to right at $2.503 trillion.  The Federal Reserve data shows that consumers are still holding pat and  continue to deleverage their own finances.
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Media Digest 6/23/2009

newspaperReuters:   Toyota’s (TM) new management has a rocky road.

Reuters:   A poll shows confidence in Obama’s economic plans drops.

Reuters:   Apple’s (AAPL) Jobs was at work.

Reuters:   Ford (F) and Nissan will get special factory upgrade loans Read More »

Top Analyst Upgrades (CAR, BAC, BCSI, CLRT, IHS, MA, PLXS, QTWW, SLB)

These are some of the top early bird analyst upgrades and positive research calls we are seeing from Wall Street this Thursday morning with more than two hours until the market opens:

Avis Budget (CAR) Raised to Equal Weight at Barclays.
Bank of America (BAC) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) Raised to Buy at Merriman Curhan Ford.
Clarient (CLRT) Started as Outperform at Baird.
IHS (IHS) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Mastercard (MA) Started as Buy at Piper Jaffray.
Plexus (PLXS) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Quantum Fuel (QTWW) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Schlumberger (SLB) Started as Buy at Societe Generale.

JON C. OGG

Consumer Credit Keeps Dropping (V, MA)

burning-money-pic6There is a reading of the economy which we used to see only go up and up, and that is the monthly consumer credit.  In the month of February, consumers cut their borrowings and this is the fourth reading in the last six months.  Consumer credit outstanding fell by an adjusted rate of about 3.5% or $7.5 billion, to $2.564 trillion.   We saw Bloomberg estimates of -$3 billion and Dow Jones had run estimates of -$1 billion.
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Merchants Going After Credit Card Processing Fees (V, MA)

money-stack-image64Credit card processing fee legislation appears to be coming back.  Whether it becomes law is another matter, but merchants are going after credit card processing fees via a fight in Washington D.C.  That puts the likes of Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V) and MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) front and center due to roughly an 80% market share.  It could also pose a serious risk to a portion of revenue in their business models.  It seems that merchants are banding together again to fight the amount of money they have to pay for processing transaction payments on credit cards.
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Media Digest 3/18/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaper15According to Reuters, AIG (AIG) will have to pay taxpayers back for bonuses it paid out before it can get its next $30 billion in loans.

Reuters reports that Coke (KO) is being blocked by the Chinese government from buying a juice company there.

Reuters writes that the head of GM (GM) says the Ford (F) deal with UAW will not work for the No.2 US car company.

Reuters reports that the World Bank wants the G20 to take a harder stance against protectionism

Reuters writes that the US economy is showing signs of coming out of its hole.

Reuters reports that investors in Starbucks (SBUX) want to see more savings.

Reuters reports that Apple (AAPL) released more applications for the iPhone. Read More »

Credit Cards: Weighing Bad Debt Against Any Debt At All

bank3Bank uber-analyst Meredith Whitney wrote in The Wall Street Journal that the economy will have more problems as banks take credit cards away from people to prevent bad debt write-offs. She says “Just six months ago, I estimated that at least $2 trillion of available credit-card lines would be expunged from the system by the end of 2010. However, today, that estimate now looks optimistic, as available lines were reduced by nearly $500 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008 alone.” Read More »

Media Digest 2/3/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaper2According to Reuters, Obama spoke about the economy with optimism as his aides defended the budget.

Reuters reports that a Senate panel will question Swiss banking’s secrecy policy.

Reuters reports that foreclosures drove up the 2008 US home sales index.

Reuters reports that Bernanke had no choice other than to help AIG (AIG). Read More »

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ADPT, CBST, FLIR, MA, TEX, LXK, MCXH, V, XRX, ZRAN)

These are the top pre-market analyst upgrades and downgrades we have seen from Wall Street this Friday morning:

  • Adaptec (ADPT) Raised to Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
  • Cubist Pharamceuticals (CBST) Started as Accumulate at ThinkEquity.
  • FLIR Systems (FLIR) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • MasterCard (MA) Started as Outperform at Baird.
  • Terex (TEX) Raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
  • Lexmark (LXK) Cut to Underweight at Barclays.
  • Marchex (MCHX) downgraded at Thomas Weisel and at JMP Securities.
  • Visa (V) Started as Neutral at Baird.
  • Xeros (XRX) Cut to Equal Weight at Barclays.
  • Zoran (ZRAN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.

JON C. OGG
February 20, 2009

Media Digest 2/16/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaper6According to Reuters, Obama has dropped the idea of appointing a “car czar”.

Reuters reports that Japan’s GDP is dropping at an annual rate of over 13%.

Reuters reports that the Administration is trying to talk down the idea that the stimulus package will help the economy soon. Read More »

Visa, Safe Harbor For Financial Tsunami (V, MA)

Cammonopoly_wideweb__430x3250_2Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V) has posted very pleasing earnings, one of the few bits of good news in the financial sector.  The credit card processing giant earned $0.78 EPS on an adjusted basis, beating estimates of $0.66 EPS.  Its revenues were $1.7 billion, ahead of estimates of $1.68 billion.  This report is strong enough that it is even boosting shares of MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA).

Processed transaction growth, the strength of debit transactions, and the global diversity of its business are why it is doing well, according to Visa.

The company also said that revenue growth is likely in the low single digits, but the company remains steadfast in its ability to meet its own 2009 EPS guidance. Full-year 2009 annual net revenue growth is in the high single-digits.

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Julian Robertson Stays Very Bearish, With Picks (GS, V, MA, PTY, PCN)

Robertson_imageIf you hadn’t gotten your full round of pre-weekend economic gloom, famed investor Julian Robertson of Tiger Management just gave an interview with CNBC’s Erin Burnett. He is cautious about what lies ahead.

If you do not recall, Robertson warned a year ago that the U.S. was headed for a "doozy of a recession."  He advised the Obama administration to tell the truth and say there are no quick fixes.  If this bailout/turnaround isn’t successful, then a 3- to 4-year economic problem will be much worse than what Japan went through in the 1980s.

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Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (ABH, AMFI, CME, LPX, MA, MSCC, NOK, V)

Burning_money_picThese are some of the top downgrades and negative research calls we have seen from Wall Street analysts this Friday morning:

  • AbitibiBowater (ABH) Cut to Underperform at Raymond James.
  • Amcore Financial (AMFI) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
  • CME Group (CME) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.
  • Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.
  • Mastercard (MA) Started as Sell at Citigroup.
  • Microsemi (MSCC) Cut to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
  • Nokia (NOK) Cut to Neutral at Nomura.
  • Visa (V) Started as Hold at Citigroup.

Jon C. Ogg
January 23, 2009