24/7 Wall St. » MA

Top Earnings Previews For Thursday (BZH, PHM, BX, CME, DOW, GNW, GILD, IP, K, MA, MRK, RCL, HOT, TRMB, VRTX, YRCW)

Administrator — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 20:43:53 +0000

Earnings season is still upon us. There are going to be many big earnings reports Thursday and we would consider Thursday as the climax for the companies reporting their normal fourth quarter results of 2011 which have fiscal year-end dates of December 31.

We have two homebuilder earnings due from Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) and PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM). Other key earnings to watch will be from the following: Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX); Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX); CME Group Inc. (NYSE: CME); Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW); Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW); Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD); International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP); Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K); MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA); Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK); Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL); Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT); Trimble Navigation Ltd. (NASDAQ: TRMB); Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX); YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW).

We have included Thomson Reuters consensus estimates on each company. On most we have included pricing data and/or other bits of color for traders to consider.

We have two different homebuilders on deck to report. Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) is expected to post -$0.36 EPS on $211.4 million in sales and we would watch cancellation rates on contracts as well as the quality of the earnings. Second is PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) with an expected positive earnings of $0.07 EPS on $1.14 billion in sales. Pulte’s cancellation rates and quality of earnings will also have to be monitored.

Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX) will show private equity wealth and earnings in the morning. The firm is expected to report earnings of $0.38 EPS on revenues of $986.75 million.

Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) has been down and out for longer than any current and past holder would like to consider. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.08 EPS on $1.91 billion in sales.

CME Group Inc. (NYSE: CME) is expected to report earnings of $3.71 EPS and $754 million in sales before the market opens. With a possibility of a state-relocation and the ongoing pressure of exchange mergers we would be watching this one. At roughly $244.50, the 52-week trading range is $224.69 to $317.27.

Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) is expected to turn in earnings of $0.30 EPS on $14.19 billion in sales. The report is due in the morning.

Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) is expected to report earnings of $0.19 EPS on $2.58 billion in sales. The shares are now up over 60% from the lows of the last year and the stock still remains pressured due to the mortgage insurance overhang that has been in place for quite some time.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) has shocked the market by outperforming despite what appears to be a bad use of effort and capital in the large acquisition. Still, shares hit a new 52-week high on Wednesday. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.05 EPS and $2.18 billion in sales.

International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP) is close to being within striking range of a 52-week high and it pays well above a 3% yield today. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.61 EPS and $6.5 billion in sales.

Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) is lagging and actually close to a 52-week low with shares around the $49.50 mark. The estimates are $0.63 on $2.99 billion in sales. The bar is set very low here.

MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) will show just what the interchange fee problems look like, but that is not fully reflected at all in current numbers. The consensus estimates are $3.92 EPS and $1.73 billion in sales. With shares around $357 some are concerned over valuations here.

Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is reporting early Thursday morning and the company’s higher dividend hike has shares trading very close to 52-week highs with a price of close to $38.70 andf a 52-week range of $29.47 to $39.43. Estimates are $0.95 EPS and $12.53 billion in sales. To show just how low growth is the estimates of $3.76 EPS and $48.23 billion in sales for all of 2011 are only expected to be $3.83 EPS on $47.62 billion in sales for all of 2012.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) may or may not release. With its rival’s disaster, we are not doing much legwork here. Thomson Reuters has a projection of $0.15 EPS and $1.78 billion in sales.

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT) is key for hotel investors and this one is expected to post $0.57 EPS on $1.42 billion in sales. Starwood has over $1 billion in cash but is still trading at a high 3.7-times book value.

Trimble Navigation Ltd. (NASDAQ: TRMB) is not so widely watched on its own, but it is used as a barometer reading for Garmin. Trimble estimates are $0.48 EPS and $419.10.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX) has been in the news with new FDA approvals. We have Thursday as the tentative date and estimates are $0.73 EPS and $523.66 million in sales.

YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) is set to report and it is a puzzlement as to how this stock is still alive. On a reverse split basis the $12.83 price compares to a 52-week range of $7.94 to somewhere over $1,000. The consensus is listed as -$6.97 EPS but we have no idea how these targets are composed on this company.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Calendar, Earnings Tagged: BX, BZH, CME, DOW, GILD, GNW, HOT, IP, K, MA, MRK, PHM, RCL, TRMB, VRTX, YRCW

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (V, MA, C, CVX, APD, EBAY, ZZ, BLK, BAC, FCS, FCX, MS, LUV, EGHT, TSL, JASO, STP)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 21:04:43 +0000

Stocks opened higher this morning and have mostly remained in positive territory throughout the day. Reports that China was considering lowering its banks’ capital reserve requirements boosted both Asian and European markets this morning, while early morning earnings reports put more air under the opening. Morning reports from the federal government on natural gas, crude oil, and refined products inventories weighed on both commodity prices and energy stocks. Crude is mixed today, with WTI down -0.28% at $100.31/barrel and Brent up 0.7% at $111.44. Gold fell about -0.45% today to $1,652.50.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up about 46 points to 12,625.19 (0.37%), the NASDAQ rose more than 18 points (0.67%) to 2,788.33, and the S&P 500 rose 0.5% or more than 6 points to 1,314.52.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) started as ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) started as ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) maintained ‘sell’ at Argus; Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) maintained as ‘buy’ with target price of $130 but lowered estimates at Argus; and Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) cut to ‘neutral’ at JPMorgan.

Earnings reports since markets closed yesterday have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Ebay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) is up nearly 4% at $31.55; Sealy Corp. Inc. (NYSE: ZZ) is down nearly -18% at $1.51; Blackrock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) is down -0.75% at $186.39; Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) is up 2.65% at $6.98; Fairchild Semiconductor International Inc. (NYSE: FCS) is down -3.51% at $14.02; Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) is down -0.22% at $44.37; Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is up 5.42% at $18.29; and Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) is up 3.33% at $9.32.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

8×8 Inc. (NASDAQ: EGHT) is up more than 26% at $4.30. The telecom services company reported much better-than-expected earnings for its third fiscal quarter.

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) is down more than -15% at $8.32. The solar panel maker is falling following Germany’s announcement that it will begin lowering its solar subsidies.

JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) is down nearly -15% at $$1.80. This Chinese solar panel maker is suffering from the German subsidy cut as well.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is down -14% at $3.18. Another Chinese solar maker hit by the cuts to German subsidies. The list could go on, but you get the idea.

Stay tuned for Friday. We have noted the following event on the schedule (all times Eastern):

10:00 a.m. – Existing home sales

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close, The Day Tagged: APD, BAC, BLK, C, CVX, EBAY, EGHT, FCS, FCX, JASO, LUV, MA, MS, STP, TSL, V, ZZ

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ADTN, AAP, APD, MT, ADP, BKU, BA, CATM, CSH, CVX, C, HGSI, LAMR, MA, RSH, SMG, UBS, VE, V, WFT, BRCM)

Administrator — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 13:14:47 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street brokerage and research firms this Thursday morning.

ADTRAN, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN) Cut to Hold at Needham Research.
Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Air Products and Chemical, Inc. (NYSE: APD) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
Automatic Data Processing. Inc. (NYSE: ADP) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
BankUnited, Inc. (NYSE: BKU) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) Cut to Sell at Societe Generale.
Cardtronics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CATM) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Cash America International (NYSE: CSH) Raised to Buy at Sterne Agee.
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) maintained Buy with $130 target but cut estimates at Argus.
Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) Maintained Sell at Argus.
Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) Started as Buy with $14 price target at Maxim.
Lamar Advertising Co. (NASDAQ: LAMR) maintained as Outperform and named as the Bull of the Day at Zacks.
MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
RadioShack Corporation (NYSE: RSH) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Scotts Miracle-Gro (NYSE: SMG) Cut to Underperform at BMO Capital.
UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Veolia Environnement (NYSE: VE) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Weatherford International Inc. (NYSE: WFT) named as value stock of the day at Zacks.

Read Also: Jim Cramer touts Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) as a cheap catch-up semiconductor stock. This creates a chart versus fundamental event in price.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AAP, ADP,, ADTN, APD, BA, BKU, BRCM, C, CATM, CSH, CVX, HGSI, LAMR, MA, MT, RSH, SMG, UBS, V, VE, WFT

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (INTC, KALU, NOR, MA, V, BBY, FDS, FCEL, PTRY, MILL, LIVE, SYNO, RVSN, ECYT, IVN, GMCR, FST)

Paul Ausick — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 21:09:38 +0000

Stocks opened firmly higher this morning and the DJIA rose by more than 130 points in the first hour of trading. The dollar gained strength against the euro putting more enthusiasm into the market. Investors were also hoping that the Fed would indicate that a new round of quantitative easing would be available instantly if necessary. That didn’t work out however, and equities tumbled following the Fed’s mid-afternoon statement. Crude oil also rose on a threat from Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude is up more than 2%, at $99.81/barrel after topping $100 earlier in the day, and Brent crude is up 1.9% at 109.30/barrel. Gold is down nearly -2%, at $1,636.90.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 66 points to 11,954.94 (-0.55%), the NASDAQ fell nearly 33 points (-1.26%) to 2,579.27, and the S&P 500 fell -0.87% or nearly 11 points to 1,225.73.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) maintained ‘outperform’ but estimates cut at Credit Suisse and maintained ‘hold’ with a $24 price target at Canaccord Genuity. Other ratings actions today include Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU) started as ‘buy’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch; Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp. (NYSE: NOR) started as ‘buy’ at BofA/ML; Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) and Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) both started as ‘buy’ at Nomura.

Here are today’s post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) is down more than -15.5% at $23.68 (more details here); FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (NYSE: FDS) is down more than -8% at $87.01; FuelCell Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FCEL) is down more than -15% at $0.93; The Pantry Inc. (NASDAQ: PTRY) is down more than -12% at $10.41, after posting a new 52-week low earlier today of $9.52; and Miller Energy Resources, Inc. (NYSE: MILL) is down nearly -11% at $2.90.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

LiveDeal Inc. (NASDAQ: LIVE) is up more than 236%, at $4.88. The customer acquisition company issued 1.6 million shares of new stock, raising its capital by by $2 million and enabling it to meet Nasdaq listing requirements.

Synovis Life Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SYNO) is up more than 50%, at $27.78. The medical device maker agreed to be acquired by Baxter International Inc. (NYSE: BAX) for $28/share, a 52% premium to the stock’s Monday closing price. The deal is worth $325 million.

RADVision Ltd. (NASDAQ: RVSN) is up more than 14%, at $9.62. The communications equipment maker is said to be an acquisition target for Avaya at a price of around $200 million.

Endocyte Inc. (NASDAQ: ECYT) is down more than -65%, at $3.56, a new 52-week low. The pharmaceutical maker announced that trials of a new cancer drug have not shown that the drug helps patients live longer.

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (NYSE: IVN) is down nearly -22%, at $16.16. The junior miner lost a court decision to Rio Tinto plc (NYSE: RIO) which essentially kills Ivanhoe’s poison pill plan. Rio owns 49% of Ivanhoe and can maintain that stake regardless of new share issuances until April 2013.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) is down more than -11%, at $50.03. The coffee merchant has lost some market share for its single-cup coffee products, and prices are also falling.

Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST) is down nearly -13%, at $14.01. The oil & gas E&P company announced its outlook for 2012, and analysts were disappointed with the level of capital expenditures and cash flows.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, is giving a speech in the morning. Here are some other noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
1:00 p.m. – 30-year Treasury bond auction

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: BBY, ECYT, FCEL, FDS, FST, GMCR, INTC, IVN, KALU, LIVE, MA, MILL, NOR, PTRY, RVSN, SYNO, V

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (MT, AVNR, CTRN, ETH,INTC, IGT, KALU, LVS, MA, MGM, MNTA, NOR, SFD, SO, SE, URBN, V, WYNN)

Administrator — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 13:35:40 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this Tuesday morning.

Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) Started as Equal Weight at Barclays.
Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVNR) Reiterate as “Buy” with a $6 price target by Canaccord Genuity.
Citi Trends, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTRN) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (NYSE: ETH) Started as Hold at Argus.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Maintained Outperform but cut estimates at Credit Suisse; maintained Hold with $24 price target objective at Canaccord Genuity.
International Game Technology (NYSE: IGT) resumed with “Outperform” rating at Wells Fargo.
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ: KALU) Started as Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Las Vegas Sands Corporation (NYSE: LVS) resumed with “Outperform” rating at Wells Fargo.
Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) Started as Buy at Nomura.
MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) resumed with “Outperform” rating at Wells Fargo.
Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: MNTA) reiterate as Buy with a $23 price target objective by Canaccord Genuity.
Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp. (NYSE: NOR) Started as Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks Investment Research.
Southern Co. (NYSE: SO) Cut to Hold from Buy for short-term coverage but maintained a Buy for long-term at Argus.
Spectra Energy Corporation (NYSE: SE) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Maintained Neutral and lowered estimates at Credit Suisse; Maintained Underperform with $17 price target objective by Jefferies.
Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V) Started as Buy at Nomura.
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) resumed with “Market Perform” at Wells Fargo.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AVNR, CTRN, ETH, IGT, INTC, KALU, LVS, MA, MGM, MNTA, MT, NOR, SE, SFD, SO, URBN, V, WYNN

US Credit Card Debt Rises 150% in Third Quarter (V, MA, AXP, COF)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 16:33:29 +0000

Americans have started using their credit cards again — and in a big way. Credit card debt jumped 154% in the third quarter of 2011 compared with the same period a year ago, according to the latest report from CardHub.com. Card issuers like Visa Inc. (NYSE: V), Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA), American Express Corp. (NYSE: AXP), and Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) must be smiling today.

According to the CardHub report, combined debt and charge-offs rose $16.82 billion in the quarter. The US Federal Reserve’s consumer credit report, which was issued yesterday, noted a drop in revolving credit outstanding of -2%. The Fed’s numbers, however, do not include charge-offs of $10.94 billion that are included in the CardHub numbers.

The Federal Reserve’s report shows that non-revolving debt, such as student loans and auto loans, increased by $7.3 billion. Total outstanding consumer debt according to the Fed is $2.457 trillion in October.

CardHub reports that the charge-off rate for credit card debt rose slightly, from 5.58% in the second quarter of 2011 to 5.63% in the third quarter.

There are two troubling aspects to the third quarter report according to CardHub:

While it is common for consumers to end the first quarter of each year with a significant net decrease in credit card debt and subsequently wipe out this reduction throughout the rest of the year, the speed at which consumers are garnering new debt in 2011 is unprecedented. More specifically, this is the first time in the last two years that a Q1 pay down has been completely eradicated by the end of Q3.

Additionally, in both 2009 and 2010, consumers added more new debt in Q4 than in Q2 and Q3 combined. If this is any indication for what Q4 2011 has in store, consumers are certainly headed down a dangerous path. As a result, Card Hub revised upward the year-end credit card debt projection it made earlier this year from $54 billion to $64 billion.

Shopper surveys indicate that consumers plan to spend more this holiday season than they did last year. While that is good news for retailers and for the economy in general, it could be setting up a new round of consumers over-extending themselves, but this time without housing price increases to soak up the new debt.

If consumers’ confidence is rising, that’s a good thing, but if the rise is based on increases in home values and the belief that their jobs are secure, that could be a pretty shaky foundation upon which to increase debt given the overall weakness in both the US and global economies.

Filed under: Banking, Economy, Retail Tagged: AXP, COF, MA, V

Berkshire Hathaway & Buffett’s Stock Holdings ‘L to Z’ (BRK-B, BRK-A, MA, MTB, MCO, PG, SNY, TMK, USB, USG, UPS, VRSK, V, WMT, WPO, WFC)

Administrator — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 22:08:08 +0000

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B, BRK-A) and Warren Buffett have just released the latest holdings of U.S.-listed equities as of September 30, 2011 and this is the second group of ‘L to Z’ in the public equities. We have included some accompanying notes on each. Keep in mind that Todd Combs is a new portfolio manager and his new positions were given ‘special exemptions’ from being disclosed last quarter.

M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE: MTB) is 5.38+ million shares, UP ONLY A TAD from the 5.363 million last quarter but this one had been cut in prior quarters.
Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) was 405,000 shares valued at $128.45 million. The position is the SAME AS last quarter but still almost double from the quarter before.
Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) was 28.4 million; SAME AS last quarter but way down from prior quarters and years.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) was 76.7 million shares and listed as THE SAME as last quarter but lower than the 96.3 million shares in prior quarters.
Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) was 4.06 million shares; SAME AS before.
Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) was more than 4.2 million, a LARGER POSITION than the 2.82 million shares last quarter.
US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) was roughly 69 million shares; SAME AS before.
USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) was 17.072 million shares; SAME AS before.
United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) was 1.429 million shares; SAME AS before.
Verisk Analytics, Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSK) was ALMOST DOUBLE in shares at 4.202 million worth $146.1 million versus the 2,101,125 shares a quarter before when it had been started as a new position.
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) is a NEW POSITION of 2.291 million shares worth $96.44 million.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was just over 39 million shares; SAME AS before after having been raised in 2010.
Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) was over 1.72 million shares; SAME AS before and Buffett kept his word so far about holding the Washington Post shares despite stepping down from its board.
Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) over 361 million shares a HIGHER POSITION than the 352+ million last quarter.

PAGE ONE…BUFFETT HOLDINGS ‘A to K’

As noted earlier… today’s holding disclosure has missing data as Berkshire Hathaway was given permission and likely still does not include the full holdings: Confidential information has been omitted from the Form 13F and filed separately with the Commission.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Activist Investor, Buffett, Mutual Funds Tagged: BRK-A, BRK-B, MA, MCO, MTB, PG, SNY, TMK, UPS, USB, USG, V, VRSK, WFC, WMT, WPO

Most Likely Stock Purchases by Warren Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B, BAC, DG, XOM, COP, MA, VRSK, WMT, WFC)

Administrator — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 15:41:55 +0000

Warren Buffett and his team at Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) went out buying stocks in this last quarter according to the firm’s quarterly report. Sadly, no one outside of Buffett, Combs, and a few other people know which positions were added to. 24/7 Wall St. has compiled a list of likely add-on positions and the rationale behind each.

Some positions which we expect ro would just assume are in Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA), Verisk Analytics, Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSK), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC). Just keep in mind that Berkshire Hathaway is granted “Confidential Treatment” in some positions, so it is possible that many others are present but not known by the public.

The total invested was $23.9 billion in the quarter and that appears to be more than any quarter of the last decade and then some. Almost $7 billion of that was classified as equities. Keep in mind that the $5 billion for BofA and the $9 billion or so for Lubrizol were a part of the total figures.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) was not in the prior holdings one quarter ago, but what we do know is that Buffett came to the rescue with a $5 billion preferred share purchase where Buffett also gets all of those warrants. Technically this will not appear in the mid-November filing that shows Buffett’s September 30, 2011 holdings. It doesn’t matter. This is now one of his larger positions.

Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) was listed as a new of 1,497,800 shares a quarter ago and our take is that Buffett (actually Todd Combs) will have bought more shares in a recent secondary offering. There is a reason this was one of our own Top Stocks To Own for the Next Decade.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is one we continue wonder why Team Buffett lightened up on. The team already pledged long ago to wind out if ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and that really never happened. Berkshire’s latest Exxon position was 421,800 shares, which saw the same as before but lower than the 1.276 million shares originally. Buffett cannot easily just put a few billion to work in most companies, but he easily could accomplish that in Exxon.

Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) was a recent position and it was almost doubled in the last quarter to some 405,000 shares. With how well this performed and with its toll-keeper business model we would just assume that Team Buffett still likes it and maybe likes it even more.

Verisk Analytics, Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSK) was another new position and it seemed an odd fit for Team Buffett. That is likely because it was Todd Combs making the call. The position was 2,101,125 shares worth “only” about $72.7 million as of June 30. If they liked it before, maybe they liked it again.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is another retailer that we belive Team Buffett may have warmed to for dividends and for valuation. This position was raised in 2010 but has held steady at just over 39 million shares. If you see that Wal-Mart is barely 1% off of its 52-week high, it sure seems as though some investors might be betting that the old man in Omaha decided that good things were happening in Bentonville, Arkansas.

Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) has long been Warren Buffett’s favorite bank and he has gradually been adding shares more and more through time. This position was just over 368.6 million shares and it has grown each quarter of late. If Team Buffett was adding big positions, it seems that they might have kept their finger on the “buy button” here even when you consider the BofA $5 billion preferred share and warrant investment.

Berkshire Hathaway’s most current portfolio of equity holdings is available here.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Activist Investor, Banking, Buffett, Compensation, Conglomerates, Retail Tagged: BAC, BRK-A, BRK-B, COP, DG, MA, VRSK, WFC, WMT, XOM

Rising Credit Card Use May Be Mixed Blessing (MA, V, AXP, COF, DFS, BAC, JPM, C)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 14:39:18 +0000

MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) absolutely crushed estimates this morning, reporting third-quarter EPS of of $5.63 on revenue of $1.82 billion. Consensus estimates were aiming for EPS of $4.81 on $1.7 billion in revenue. The company processed nearly 21% more total transactions and revenue from debit card transactions rose 23%. While more transactions and higher spending are good for the card companies, they could raise a caution flag for future delinquencies and defaults.

Other card issuers pretty much set the stage for Mastercard. Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) reported EPS of $1.27 on revenue of $2.38 billion, beating expected EPS and narrowly missing revenue estimates. A week earlier, American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) posted EPS of $1.03, topping estimates of $0.96. Both Visa and American Express noted transaction growth and higher consumer spending. Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) also beat EPS and revenue estimates in the third quarter. Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS) winds up its 2011 fiscal year this month, and is expected to report EPS of $0.91 on revenue of $1.81 billion.

Credit card lenders including American Express, Capital One, Discover, and banks like Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) reported a slight rise in delinquencies for September although write-offs fell. American Express’s delinquency rate rose from 1.4% in August to 1.5%, but write-offs fell from 2.7% to 2.4%. Capital One’s delinquency rate rose from 3.43% to 3.65%, while write-offs fell from 4.1% to 3.9%. Discover’s delinquency rate rose fractionally, and its write-off rate fell from 3.6% to 3.17%. The banks followed the pattern, but write-off rates are higher, with BofA at 5.99%, Chase at 4.13%, and Citi at 5.87%.

The concern is that the uptick in credit card use will lead to a similar uptick in delinquencies and defaults. Credit card use far outstripped debit card use last quarter, indicating either that consumers didn’t have the cash or that they were voting against the threatened imposition of fees for debit card use.

High unemployment and stagnant wages are the likeliest causes of the increase in credit card use. Now that the holiday season is truly with us, consumers will be spending more and it’s not much of a stretch to believe that credit cards will play a significant role in that spending. Paying the bills will come later.

For Mastercard and Visa, neither of which is exposed to non-payment of credit card bills, delinquencies and defaults may take a longer time to affect earnings, but if banks are forced to tighten requirements, fewer credit and debit cards will be issued and the transaction companies will feel the pinch.

Mastercard shares are up about 8% in the first hour of trading this morning, at $361.36, in a 52-week range of $215.00-$364.80. Visa shares are up more than 2.5%, at $92.34, in a 52-week range of $66.50-$95.87. American Express stock is up more than 2.5% as well, at $50.23, in a 52-week range of $41.25-$53.80. Discover shares are up nearly 2%, at $23.30, in a 52-week range of $17.84-$$27.92.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Banking, Earnings, Economy, Financial Stocks Tagged: AXP, BAC, C, COF, DFS, JPM, MA, V

The Best Performing S&P Stocks of 2011 (SPY, OKE, AN, ROST, LTD, GR, TSO, EQT, ERTS, WFM, RL, TDC, RRC, MA, HUM, CMG, VFC, ISRG, BIIB, EP, COG)

Administrator — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 16:08:23 +0000

October may have been one of the best months of many of our lives in equities. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) rose by 10.9%. in October, but the year-to-date gain has been a mere 1.2% from the December 31, 2010 close to the close on October 31, 2011. 24/7 Wall St. wanted to see which stocks are up the most in percentage gains so far in 2011 in data provided by Capital IQ. This is a year-to-date move through the close of October 31, 2011. We have shown the S&P 500 Index gainers in order from lowest to highest. Another representation is how much implied upside there is to the Thomson Reuters consensus analyst price target as well. Those which are trading above their consensus price target have been given a “caution” ahead of the pricing data.

ONEOK Inc. (NYSE: OKE) 37.1% year-to-date; at $76.05 the consensus price target is $76.60.

AutoNation Inc. (NYSE: AN) 38.1% year-to-date; caution: at $38.94 the consensus price target is $31.28.

Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) 38.7% year-to-date; caution: at $87.73 the consensus price target is $85.00.

Limited Brands, Inc. (NYSE: LTD) 39.0% year-to-date; at $42.71 the consensus price target is $44.71.

Goodrich Corporation (NYSE: GR) 39.2% year-to-date; This is being acquired, so no color.

Tesoro Corporation (NYSE:TSO) 39.9% year-to-date; at $25.94 the consensus price target is $20.31.

EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT) 41.6% year-to-date; at $63.50 the consensus price target is $72.28.

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) 42.6% year-to-date; at $23.35 the consensus price target is $25.63. This was previously listed as our top pick for the best video game stock for 2011.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) 42.6% year-to-date; at $72.12 the consensus price target is $74.47.

Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) 43.2% year-to-date; caution: at $158.79 the consensus price target is $150.00.

Teradata Corporation (NYSE: TDC) 44.9% year-to-date; at $59.66 the consensus price target is $60.56.

Range Resources Corporation (NYSE: RRC) 53.0% year-to-date; at $68.84 the consensus price target is $76.50.

Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) 54.9% year-to-date; at $347.24 the consensus price target is $374.82. It seems odd to see one financial stock here.

Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) 55.1% year-to-date; at $84.89 the consensus price target is $88.71. Health insurance has not been as bad of a business as the administration was looking for.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) 58.1% year-to-date; caution: at $336.12 the consensus price target is $328.45. The growth continues, but it is at or close to being fully valued.

V.F. Corporation (NYSE: VFC) 60.4% year-to-date; at $138.22 the consensus price target is $144.33.

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) 68.3% year-to-date; caution: at $433.86 the consensus price target is $419.27. DaVinci sales remain robust as more surgeons are looking for robotic surgery capabilities.

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) 73.5% year-to-date; caution: at $116.36 the consensus priced target is $115.22. Here is how this compared to the rest of its peers before earnings season.

El Paso Corp. (NYSE: EP) 81.8% year-to-date; being acquired so no color.

Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE: COG) 105.3% year-to-date; ; at $77.72 the consensus price target is $91.32.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: HI/LOW, Index, Trading Alert Tagged: AN, BIIB, CMG, COG, EP, EQT, ERTS, GR, HUM, ISRG, LTD, MA, OKE, RL, ROST, RRC, SPY, TDC, TSO, VFC, WFM