Posts for Ticker ‘MBI’

Top Day Trader Alerts (AIG, AONE, MBI, PALM, SIGM, REGN, CADX, TRA, CF, AGU, BRCD)

These are this morning’s top day trader and active trader alerts seen in the pre-market trading hours.  We also included some options color from yesterday.  A link has been provided for more detailed analysis and data for each stock over at VSInvestor.com:

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) is down only about 2% after reports that the company could find itself leaderless again.

A123 Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: AONE) is trading down 3% after earnings and concerns over a partnership.

MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) is trading up over 3% this morning after getting crushed yesterday, M.J. Whitman’s Third Avenue took a stake.

Palm Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) is running over 3% on an analyst call.

Sigma Designs, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGM) is down 8% on a downgrade.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) is trading up 10% after Sanofi-Aventis expanded its antibody pact substantially.

We have many options on watch as well:

  • Cadence Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: CADX) is one to watch with a huge binary volatility trade ahead of the 11/13 PDUFA date for Acetavance as a treatment for acute pain.
  • There was some interesting options trading seen yesterday in the trifecta fertilizer merger war via Terra Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRA), CF Industries (NYSE: CF), and Agrium (NYSE: AGU).
  • Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD) gave a stock and option alert yesterday, but it went even more active in options with the NOV09 $9 CALLS seeing 24,450 contracts and the NOV09 $10 CALLS seeing 17,432 contracts.

You can join our open email distribution list which goes out several times per week to be notified of key merger news, key analyst calls, top early morning day trader alerts, along with news of IPO’s, key offerings, guru investor data on Buffett and others, mergers, and more.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: November 11, 2009 – 9:09 am in Pre-Market Activity, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , , , ,

Big Stock Moves Of The Day (9/29/2009)

Aocording to Volume Spike Investor, several stocks are making significant moves before the open.

Including in the list are Gannett (GCI) (details), BSD Medical (BSDM) (details), Walgreen (WAG) (details), Sequenom (SQMN) (details), and MBIA (MBI) (details).

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: September 29, 2009 – 8:28 am in Pre-Market Activity, , , , ,

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades (AMGN, CELL, ELON, SATS, KR, QLGC, MBI, PETM, S, YUM)

These are the top  10 pre-market analyst upgrades and downgrades in Wall Street research calls this Tuesday morning:

Amgen (AMGN) Started as Buy at RBC.
Brightpoint (CELL) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Echelon (ELON) Raised to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
Echostar Holdings (SATS) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Kroger (KR) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
QLogic (QLGC) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
MBIA Inc. (MBI) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
PETsMART (PETM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Sprint Nextel (S) Cut to Underweight at Piper Jaffray.
YUM! Brands (YUM) Cut to Neutral at UBS.

JON C. OGG
AUGUST 11, 2009

Posted on: August 11, 2009 – 7:58 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 5/14/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYT, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters   Obama hopes to have healthcare bill by July

Reuters   Documents on Paulson’s meetings with banks forcing them to take TARP have been released

Reuters   Banks sued MBIA (MBI) over its $5 billion restructuring.

Reuters   Lehman may spin off its remaining assets.

Reuters   Ford (F) is walking a tight rope during the industry downturn.

Reuters   The SEC is proposing action against former Countrywide CEO Mozilo. Read More »

Posted on: May 14, 2009 – 2:58 am in Autos, Banking, Consumer Electronics, Earnings, Pharmaceuticals, Press Digest, Regulation, Semiconductor, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

A Profitable MBIA… The Possible Impossibility (MBI, ABK)

Money Stack ImageMBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) was on our schedule to report earnings tomorrow, but the troubled and former largest bond insurer somehow managed to post a profit for the quarter.  We expected a loss, although estimates on this company are now so thin and wide apart that we hesitate to use them.  The company posted net income of $696.706 million on revenue of $1.929 billion, versus a loss of $2.4 billion and negative revenue of -$2.942 billion in the year-ago period.  The move is strong enough that it even has Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) higher on the news).
Read More »

Posted on: May 11, 2009 – 4:34 pm in Earnings, Financial Stocks, Turnarounds, ,

Media Digest 5/1/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperAccording to Reuters, lenders will object to the Chrysler Chapter 11 filing.

Reuters reports that Switzerland  is asking US a court to halt a case against UBS (UBS).

Reuters reports that SMFG will buy Citiroup’s (C) Japan units for over $5.6 billion.

Reuters writes that Cuomo said that pension kickbacks are a national problem. Read More »

Posted on: May 1, 2009 – 3:00 am in Aerospace, Airlines, Autos, Banking, Consumer Goods, Earnings, Oil & Gas, PC Companies, Press Digest, Software, Wireless, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 4/7/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaper5According to Reuters, some members of Congress were unhappy with Defense budget cuts.

Reuters reports that Americans are more optimistic about the economy since Obama came into office, according to a New York Times/CBS poll.

Reuters reports that the US deficit was near $1 trillion in the government’s fiscal first half.

Reuters reports that Congress is set to curtail risky mortgages.

Reuters reports that a quarter of companies globally are set to freeze wages. Read More »

Posted on: April 7, 2009 – 2:56 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

How Bad Will MBIA Earnings Be? (MBI, ABK, PMI, MTG)

burning-money-pic3MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) is set to report earnings Tuesday,  before the market opens.  As the market has slid further, this troubled “guarantor” has gone with it and has again hit new 52-week lows this morning.

The prior 52-week range was $2.51 to $19.08, and it hit reached $2.42 this morning.  This was over a $60.00 stock in 2007.  It is hard to imagine that this beaten and battered stock has much influence or relevance any longer, but it still is followed.
Read More »

Posted on: March 2, 2009 – 12:25 pm in Earnings, Financial Stocks, , , ,

Media Digest 2/19/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaper9According to Reuters, the biggest problem GM (GM) may face is a mountain of debt.

Reuters reports that investors in Stanford funds are pushing hard to get their money out.

Reuters reports that Obama announced his plan to rescue mortgages. Read More »

Posted on: February 19, 2009 – 3:53 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

24/7 Wall St. Day Trading Alert (SPWRA)(MBI)(ABK)(RDN)(USU)

House SunPower Corporation (SPWRA) seemed to pull down the whole solar sector. Details

MBIA (MBI) and Ambac (ABK) got torn to pieces on bad news.

Radian (RDN) surged on good news.

USEC (USU) dropped on particularly bad guidance.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: November 5, 2008 – 11:07 am in Research, , , , ,

The Shorts Get Out Of Banks And Into Tech (C)(WFC)(WB)(BAC)(MBI)(AIG)(INTC)(MSFT)(ORCL)(DELL)(QCOM)(SIRI)(F)

AngrybearFor the period ending October 15, short sellers got out of most banks and brokerage stocks. That is a shame for them. They could have made a killing this week.

The short interest in Citigroup (C) fell over 5% to 116.8 million shares. Probably due to its purchase by Wells Fargo (WFC) shares sold short in Wachovia (WB) dropped by 54% to 91 million. Short interest in Bank of America (BAC) dropped 14% to 94.1 million. Short interest in MBIA (MBI) fell 21% to 62 million.

The government bailout did not do much for AIG (AIG) is was the only big financial to see a sharp increase in shares sold short, up up 11% to 93.7 million.

Read More »

Posted on: October 25, 2008 – 4:52 am in Short Interest, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

MBIA (MBI) And Ackman: Killing The Messenger

MbiaMBIA’s (MBI) corporate slogan "Wisdom In Action" presents a monumental irony. Management’s gamble that derivatives were a good way to pop earnings nearly ruined the company. The firm was, after all, supposed to be the safest business in town, insuring municipal bonds meant to do things like build schools.

The people who run MBIA have decided to blame the misdeeds on their watch on someone else, a handy tool employed by executives everywhere.

Read More »

Posted on: August 9, 2008 – 8:34 am in Uncategorized,

If Nakes Short Are Driving Down Shares, Where Are The Buy-Outs? (ABK)(MBI)(OSTK)

BearWhen you hear the group of conspiracy theorists that Gary Weiss so aptly named "The Baloney Brigade" talking about naked short selling, you get the idea that unscrupulous short sellers are driving down the prices of some stocks far below the price they would fetch in a fair market.

Read More »

Posted on: July 27, 2008 – 6:28 am in Short Interest, , ,

Short Sellers Trash Financials And Autos (FNM)(FRE)(YHOO)(JAVA)(JNPR)(NOK)(QCOM)(GM)(F)(ETFC)(WB)(BAC)(ABK)(LEH)(MBI)

BearRegulators may be trying to keep short sellers out of a few financial stocks, but that is not keeping large bets against most other stocks from rising.

While some of the shorts may have moved on from the "protected" stocks, as of July 15, the short interest in Fannie Mae (FNM) rose 15.7 million shares to 154.4 million. Shares short in Freddie Mac were up 23.1 million to 105.9 million.

Read More »

Posted on: July 24, 2008 – 7:10 pm in Short Interest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Small Business Turns Against “Uncle Sam”

Uncle_samSmall businesses think they are being abandoned by the federal government just when they really need something in exchange for their tax dollars.

A new poll from American Management Services reveals that almost no one in the small business sector thinks that it is getting any meaningful support during the present economic crisis.

Read More »

Posted on: July 21, 2008 – 2:33 pm in Economy, ,

Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), And Bear Strearns: Who Decides Who Lives And Who Dies?

The federal government has decided that Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) are too big to fail. The Fed and Treasury will offer a combination of loans and stock purchases to make sure that the two mortgage operations have adequate capital to operate smoothly. By some estimates, the government will put $15 billion into the companies, which will almost certainly push down the value of their common shares due to dilution. But, it will not wipe that stockholders out.

Investors and employees at Bear Stearns were not so lucky. Shareholders in IndyMac (IMB), which was seized by the government last week, will walk away with nothing. People with money in Countrywide would likely have done no better if Bank of America (BAC) has not bought the company, a move that some analysts say could still back-fire.

The Fed and Treasury almost certainly did the right thing. Those who believe that only the free market should determine the fate of financial institutions may want to make an exception with FRE and FNM. They hold or support almost 50% of US mortgages. Their paper is owned in great quantity by every major bank and brokerage house. A failure of one or both companies would cause hundreds of millions of dollars in bank write-offs and would hurt the chances of the average citizen getting a home loan.

The credit crisis, but most measures, is getting worse. Merrill Lynch (MER) is almost certainly close to selling assets to offset losses from its mortgage-related paper. Most large US banks, with Citgroup (C) out in front, are going to have billions more in write-downs this quarter. Many observers think those losses could continue well into next year as the mortgage markets and economy get worse.

All of this raises the $64,000 question of which financial institutions are too big to fail and which are not. It could be persuasively argued that if MBIA (MBI) or Ambac (ABK) went under, the losses at financial companies which hold their paper could be tremendous.

That brings the argument around to money center banks and brokerages. Market rumors are that Lehman (LEH) may not make it. Wachovia (WB), Washington Mutual (WM), and Citigroup (C) may reach a point of no return. Who decides if any of these gets government assistance? Congress? The Fed? The Treasury?

The credit crisis will get worse, perhaps much worse. The federal government does not have an unlimited supply of capital. If it is faced with bail-outs that run into the hundreds of billions of dollars, the vault may empty quickly.

All of this means that the decision about what happens to large US banks and investment houses will be at least somewhat arbitrary.

Those financial firms which fail earliest may actually have an advantage. At least there will be money available to support them.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: July 14, 2008 – 5:01 am in Financial Stocks, , , , , , , , , ,

MBIA Tries Yelling All Clear (MBI)

MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) decided to speak out against some recent speculation and some recent reporting on its overall health.  The company has said that as a result of Moody’s downgrade of MBIA Insurance Corporation’s insurance financial strength rating from Aaa to A2, it expected that it would be required to post additional eligible collateral and fund potential termination payments under its outstanding Guaranteed Investment Contracts (GICs).

The company announced that sales of approximately $4 billion of investment assets during the second quarter has given it sufficient eligible collateral and cash to satisfy these additional requirements.  As part of this, its entire remaining GIC portfolio will be fully collateralized (subject to exercise rights).  The repositioning activity in the portfolio did not include the broad sale of municipal securities.

MBIA taking this a step further by saying it "is not in a tenuous situation” and that the holders of insurance policies, GICs, medium-term notes and other debt instruments can rest assured that MBIA will meet its obligations "on time and in full."

It has also broken down some portfolio numbers.  ALM portfolio liabilities declined from $25.1 billion at March 31, 2008 to $24.1 billion at June 27, 2008 through normal amortization of the portfolio. The $24.1 billion balance at June 27 consists of $15.8 billion in GICs ($8.3 billion were collateralized prior to Moody’s downgrade), $7.3 billion in medium-term notes (MTNs) issued by MBIA Global Funding, LLC, and $1.0 billion in fixed term collateralized repurchase agreements.

Of the remaining $7.5 billion in previously uncollateralized GICs, $3.9 billion are now being collateralized and $3.6 billion are now being terminated.  The $7.3 billion in outstanding MTNs do not require collateral posting and are not subject to termination upon any downgrades; they mature over 34 years and have an average life of approximately 5.3 years.

Based upon the sales, MBIA estimates that it will record pre-tax net realized losses on its second quarter income statement of approximately $300 million and the sale of assets is not expected to have a material impact on shareholders’ equity.  MBIA saids it also continues to hold approximately $1.4 billion in cash at the holding company level.

MBIA shares had been trading down some 10% on all of these liquidity concerns.  Shares are now down 5% at $3.94 on the day.  Unfortunately, if this level holds, it will mark a new 52-week low close as the prior 52-week trading range was $4.03 to $68.98.

Unfortunately, this baseball game is still in the beginning innings, and it looks like it might easily be a low-scoring game that could go into extra innings.

Jon C. Ogg
June 30, 2008

Posted on: June 30, 2008 – 11:47 am in Financial Stocks,

Media Digest 6/28/2008 (MBI)(SI)(LEH)(MER)(BUD)

According to Reuters, the Anheuser-Busch (BUD) board is under pressure to justify what it did not take InBev’s buy-out offer.

Reuters writes that overseas money is reluctant to invest in US car companies.

Reuters reports that consumer spending moved up as people got federal rebate checks.

Reuters reports that Lehman (LEH) says Merrill Lynch (MER) may write-down $5.4 million in Q2.

Reuters reports that Moody’s is likely to cut Morgan Stanley’s (MS) credit rating.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Dow has hit bear market territory.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Siemens (SI) will cut over 17,000 jobs.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Anheuser-Busch will lay-off 1,000 people. raise prices, and buy-back more shares.

The Wall Street Journal writes that handset company Sony-Ericsson warned that its business was doing poorly.

The Wall Street Journal writes that MBIA (MBI) is selling munis to raise cash.

The New York Times reports that venture investors had an unusually poor quarter.

The FT writes that Merrill Lynch is considering selling its stakes in Blackrock and Bloomberg in the hope of raising $15 billion.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: June 28, 2008 – 4:40 am in Press Digest, , , , , ,

The 52-week Low Club (TELK)(CC)(MBI)(NWA)(OMX)(GM)

Telik (TELK) Someone selling out of the stock in big numbers. A mystery wrapped in an enigma. Down to $1.24 from 52-week high of $4.96.

Circuit City  (CC) Still selling off after big loss. Down to $3.41 from 52-week high of $16.01.

MBIA (MBI) Analyst says bond insurance firm could lose another $7.5 billion. Falls to $4.71 from 52-week high of $68.98.

Northwest (NWA) Oil up. Airlines down. Sells off to $5.64 from 52-week high of $24.25.

Officemax (OMX) Small business spending falling off. Runs off to $14.67 from 52-week high of $40.97.

GM (GM) Oil up. Car stocks down. Pounded to $12.78 from 52-week high of $32.20.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: June 23, 2008 – 2:51 pm in HI/LOW, , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AGO, BRCM, CMI, IBM, JCP, MBI, MF, MOT, NOV, VISN)

These are ten of the analyst calls we are focusing on this Monday morning in the early pre-market trading hours:
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) started as Buy at UBS.
Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) started as Neutral at Robert W. Baird.
Cummins (NYSE: CMI) Raised to Buy from Sell at UBS.
IBM (NYSE: IBM) raised to Outperform at BMO Capital Markets.
JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
MBIA (NYSE: MBI) Started as Neutral at UBS.
MF Global (NYSE: MF) Cut To Mkt Perform at KBW.
Motorola (NYSE: MOT) cut to Sell at Piper Jaffray.
Natl Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) raised to Market Perform at RBC Capital Markets.
VisionChina Media (NASDAQ: VISN) raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Jon C. Ogg
June 23, 2008

Posted on: June 23, 2008 – 6:31 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,