Carnival and GM were both victims of concern about oil price changes. The Flame Index started as a research tool in 2008 at the NY Innovation Design Lab (nyidlab). It was used as a general metric to evaluate companies and their risk in the media. Publicly traded Fortune 500 companies are used as a measure to calculate an overall market of negative news and the companies are ranked within that market.

Data and ranking provided by the Flame Index.

There are some cities, however, which have experienced such severe hardship and decline that their populations have actually decreased significantly. New Orleans has lost more than a quarter of its population in the past ten years as the result of Hurricane Katrina. The rest of the cities that have lost major parts of their population have seen their flagship industries which include coal, steel, oil, and auto-related  manufacturing fall off or completely collapse. America moved away from its status as an industrial superpower in the second half of the 20th century as the services sector rose to replace it. Millions of US manufacturing jobs have moved overseas. Cities such as  Rochester, Cleveland and Buffalo declined in population because they were trade hubs, and new modes of transportation removed their geographical dominance. Cities like Flint, Michigan have economies based on a single major industry. In Flint’s case, that industry is auto manufacturing. When that industry began to decline, Flint was unable to diversify to prevent a population exodus.

All of the cities on this list experienced at least one of these devastating problems which have caused tens of thousands, and in some cases, hundreds of thousands of its residents to leave the region for other jobs and other homes. While it has been the primary focus of these cities to create new sources of employment for their residents, it may be years before people return, if they do at all.

Unfortunately, the populations of most of the cities on this list continue to decline and the situation could get worse for years. This loss of residents has caused severe drops in the social services that many of these cities can provide. Property and other taxes have fallen so much that the support that residents of other cities take for granted is at risk in the municipalities on this list. There is no longer any guarantee that they can maintain police and fire departments at reasonable levels. Some of these cities cannot continue to manage large neighborhoods which have become almost deserted as residents have left unoccupied homes behind. Home vacancy rates tell a great deal about how much a city’s population has dropped.

24/7 obtained its population data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Division. Housing Vacancy came from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. This is a list of the seven American cities that have lost the most people in the past decade.

7. Rochester, NY

Population: 207,294

Population Change 2000-2009: -12,180

Population Percent Change 2000-2009: -5.55%

Home Vacancy: 15.3%

The City of Rochester was once a booming trade center, largely due to its location at the midpoint between Albany and Buffalo on the Erie Canal. At its peak, the city was the major flour processor in the country, and was home to several key corporations including Xerox and Eastman Kodak. Rochester declined as the usefulness of the canal went out with the advent of railroads and its flagship companies began to lose their relevancy in the larger global economy. Rochester has yet to produce an important replacement industry to drive up the population, and even the success in the 1990’s of Xerox has faded. Between 1950 and 2000, Rochester lost 34% of its population.

6. Pittsburgh, PA

Population: 311,647

Population Change 2000-2009: -22,056

Population Percent Change 2000-2009: -6.61%

Home Vacancy: 14.1%

Known as the “Steel City,” Pittsburgh was once the forge for the American industrial engine from the late 1800′s through the late 1970′s.  At its peak, the city was home to more than 1,000 factories, including the mills owned by Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel, which by itself employed over 340,000 workers during World War II. As the American steel industry collapsed in the 19 80′s Pittsburgh suffered severe unemployment problems. In the past few decades, the city changed to a technology-based economy, but the population is still on the decline. Since 1950, Pittsburgh’s population has declined by more than 50%.

BMO already owns Harris Bank and adding M & I will almost double the deposit base and expand its lending operations in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Florida, and elsewhere.

BMO will also issue about C$800 million in equity before the deal closes next summer.  As part of the deal, BMO will also repay some $1.7 billion of M & I’s TARP obligations.

Some will wonder if this will mark the start of land grab from stronger foreign banks that want a larger U.S. presence.  Many have called for consolidation of the middle-tier banks.  Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) is out of the M&A game because it is over the 10% deposit ceiling, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is divesting rather than acquiring, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) have already made their big land grabs.

This leaves that Canadians as the most likely consolidators in the U.S.  Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), The Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD), The Bank Of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM) are all candidates to acquire companies here.  Picking their targets is from a pool of many weak and many recovering financial companies large and small alike.  Chances are that these Canadian banks are looking at their treasury balances to see how much they can reasonably spend.

JON C. OGG

The famed hedge fund manager took a massive stake in Citigroup and sold his entire interest in Goldman Sachs

• Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) was listed as 159,794,229 shares, down from 167,990,464 shares.
• Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) was static as a stake of 17,000,000 shares of common stock.
• Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is listed as 300,000,000 (three-hundred million) of common stock.
• Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) was static as a 5,000,000 share stake.
• First Horizon National Corp. (NYSE: FHN) was 7.11 million, up from a stake of 3,000,000 shares in August.
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) was down to 2,000,000 shares, down from an August stake of 7,000,000 shares of common stock.
• Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (NYSE: MI) was static at 12,000,000 shares of common stock.
• People’s United Financial Inc. (NASDAQ: PBCT) was static at 2,750,000 shares of common stock.
• Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE: RF) was static at 35,000,000 shares of common stock.
• SunTrust Bank Inc. (NYSE: STI) was static at 1,500,000 shares of common stock.

We had also noted back in October how Conseco, Inc. (NYSE: CNO) had scored a Paulson investment.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) was NOT in the new filing compared to the August filing where he listed 2,000,000 shares of common stock in the August filing.  State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT) was NOT in the filing versus a stake of 700,000 shares of common stock in August.

JON C. OGG

Macerich Co. (NYSE: MAC) priced a 12 million shares secondary offering at $29.00 per share through Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan.  This REIT closed at $29.81 yesterday and is actually trading above $30.00 on the pricing.

Marshall & Ilsley (NYSE: MI) looks like the largest secondary of the day at $782 million raised. The financial services company priced a 136 million share secondary offering at $5.75 per share after a $6.01 close.  Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch were underwriters here.

Nara Bancorp (NASDAQ: NARA) sold 10 million shares of common stock at $7.50 per share in a deal sold through Keefe Bruyette & Woods.  Shares closed at $8.00 yesterday and are trading around $7.75.

Whitney Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: WTNY) priced a 25 million shares secondary offering at $8.00 per share after closing at $8.30 yesterday. There was a large sales group here from J.P. Morgan and SunTrust Robinson Humphrey as joint book-running managers; co-managers were listed as Keefe Bruyette & Woods and Sandler O’Neill.

Eurand NV (NASDAQ: EURX) is on deck for an 8.5 million shares secondary offering from Deutsche Bank and Bank of America Merrill Lynch, but no formal pricing has been seen.

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 22, 2009

• Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) was listed as some $2.217474 billion stake via 167,990,464 shares.
• Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) was listed as $371.960 million via a stake of 17,000,000 shares of common stock.
• Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) was listed as $35.5 million via a 5,000,000 share stake.
• First Horizon National Corp. (NYSE: FHN) was listed as $36 million via stake of 3,000,000 shares of common stock.
• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) was listed as $294.88 million via a stake of some 2,000,000 shares of common stock.
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) was listed as $238.77 million via a stake of 7,000,000 shares of common stock.
• Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (NYSE: MI) was listed as $57.6 million via a stake of 12,000,000 shares of common stock.
• People’s United Financial Inc. (NASDAQ: PBCT) was listed as $41.443 million via stake of 2,750,000 shares of common stock.
• Ultrashort Financial ProShars (NYSE: SKF) was listed as $83.58 million via some 2,000,000 shares.
• Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE: RF) was listed as $141.4 million via a stake of 35,000,000 shares of common stock.
• State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT) was listed as $33.04 million via a stake of 700,000 shares of common stock.
• Suntrust Bank Inc. (NYSE: STI) was listed as $24.675 million via a stake of 1,500,000 shares of common stock.

The FULL SEC FILING is here, and there are many non-financial stocks in there.

JON C. OGG
AUGUST 12, 2009

The situation is not as bad as the paper makes it out to be.

CEOs have to pay taxes on their personal use of planes and they have to pay their companies for the cost of operating the aircraft. In either case, it is not has if flying to a vacation home is free. Why shouldn’t a person who has spent 30 years working his way up the ladder not get a few choice benefits?

Business use of small jets is often much more efficient than flying commercial. Getting from a factory in Akron to a distribution center in Boise can take a whole day, if not longer, on commercial flights. A CEO making $7 million a year is earnings almost $30,000 a day. And, he may have other senior executives with him. Is it worth it to have a management team that costs a company and its shareholders $100,000 sitting in a remote airport waiting for the next commuter plane?

Executive use of company jets is a red herring. Jets save time. That has been the case for the 30 plus years since Gulfstream and other private aircraft firms started marketing small, fast planes. CEOs know that the public and shareholders are watching, which means that are likely to be judicious in putting together their plans before they step aboard that G-IV.  (BAC)(MS)(C)(PNC)(MI)(RF)

Douglas A. McIntyre

ATP Oil & Gas Corp. (NASDAQ: ATPG) priced its secondary offering of 8.75 million shares of common stock at $8.25 per share after closing at $8.64 yesterday and being north of $9.00 just two days ago.The size of this offering was increased from 7.25 million shares and it held up better than we might have guessed despite today’s drop.  Shares are down by 4.5% at $8.25 and its 52-week range is $2.75 to $44.12.  Before this offering, we show its market cap was around $300 million.

LM Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASDAQ: ERIC) is down 1% at $9.53, but the drop may be on the Barclays downgrade as this is a refinancing of a bilateral loan with the Swedish Export Credit Corporation and partially backed by the Swedish Export Credit Guarantee Board.  It intends to use the proceeds of the offering to refinance bonds maturing within the current and next year and for general corporate purposes.  We say the downgrade has more to do with this than anything.

Marshall & Ilsley Corporation (NYSE: MI) sold 87 million shares of common stock in a secondary offering at $5.75 per share.  This is trading above the price of the offering but is off 2% at $6.00 this morning after closing at $6.14 yesterday.  Its 52-week range is $2.98 to $29.97 and its market cap before this offering is listed as almost $1.6 billion.

Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) is actually a standout stock from the group, odd considering the unusual dividend activity.  Its shares are higher after pricing 11.5 million shares of common stock at $41.00 per share. Based on the trading, it is a safe bet that underwriters took the 1.725 million additional shares in the overallotment (Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, J.P.Morgan, and Wachovia). This was a deep discount, but the good news for Vulcan is that shares are up 7.5% at $45.90.

Jon C. Ogg
June 12, 2009

SunTrust Banks (STI) Credit concerns cause big sell-off in regional banks. Drops to $8.84 from 52-week high of $67.25.

MGM Mirage (MGM) Moody’ cuts rating. Sells down to $6.555 from 52-week high of $75.08.

American International Group (AIG) Will federal government have to dump more money in? Sells off to $1 from 52-week high of $55.96.

Capital One (COF) CEO to forgo pay, but that is the only good news. Credit write-offs just off stage. Drops to $14.82 from 52-week high of $63.50.

Perrigo (PRGO) Poor quarterly results and forecast. Down to $22.11 from 52-week high of $43.08.

Douglas A. McIntyre

UBS analyst Matthew O’Connor is looking for the loss cycle incommercial loans to get worse.  UBS cut 2009 earnings estimatessharply.  The cuts were for more than half for those banks stillexpected to run at profitable levels.  UBS nowexpects 7 of the 16 large banks covered in its report to post full-year losses. Thenew earnings forecasts for 2009 are now on average about 60% below theconsensus estimates.

The list of banks UBS now expects to lose money for in 2009 areComerica Inc. (NYSE: CMA), First Horizon National Corp. (NYSE: FHN),Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB), Keycorp (NYSE: KEY), Marshall &Ilsley Corp. (NYSE: MI), Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE: RF) and ZionsBancorp (NASDAQ: ZION).

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and JPMorganChase (NYSE: JPM) were among the banks still expected to turn a profitnext year, albeit at much lower levels.

UBS also noted that most banks will likely cut their dividends before the cycle turns.  Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), Marshall & Ilsley (NYSE: MI),SunTrust Banks Inc. (NYSE: STI) and Zions Bancorp. (NASDAQ: ZION) are the most at risk for dividend cuts.

UBS is now looking for a severe credit cycle in commercial andcommercial real estate.  Commercial loan losses are now targeted at 2%from 1.5%, and peak credit card losses are now targeted at 9% ratherthan 8%.  Loan loss reserve builds are now expected to reach 2% to 2.5%of assets by the middle of 2009 rather than a prior target of 1.7%.

UBS now expects bank revenues to decline from lower net interestmargins.  That would come from continued competition in attracting newdeposits at the same time as trading and capital market revenues arelower.  The weak economy is also expected to further crimp the servicefees.

It looks like all of the major banking stocks are trading lower today.

Jon C. Ogg
December 11, 2008