The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 114 points to 13,204.70 (0.87%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 21 points (0.69%) to 3,050.61, and the S&P 500 rose 0.67% or more than 9 points to 1,399.99.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD) cut to ‘equal-weight’ at Morgan Stanley; ABB Ltd. (NYSE: ABB) cut to ‘neutral’ at JPMorgan; Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) raised to ‘overweight’ at Barclays; ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) raised to ‘neutral’ at Macquarie; and Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) maintained as ‘hold’ at Argus.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Alcatel-Lucent S.A. (NYSE: ALU) is down -16.9% at $19.71 (our coverage here); Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is up 0.9% at $31.96 (our story here); Pepsico (NYSE: PEP) is down -0.3% at $66.44 (our story here); Tellabs Inc. (NASDAQ: TLAB) is down -5.1% at $3.83 (our coverage here); Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) is down -0.8% at $86.13 (our coverage here); Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) is down -8.4% at $45.22; Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) is down -1.7% at $33.72; Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) is down -2.6% at $65.69; JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU) is down -0.1% at $4.64; Liz Claiborne Inc. (NYSE: LIZ) is up 9.4% at $13.87; Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. (NYSE: MJN) is up XX% at $XX; Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) is up 4% at $86.38 after posting a new 52-week high of $87.26n earlier today; Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) is down -2.8% at $21.00; Stillwater Mining Co. (NYSE: SWC) is down -4.6% at $10.69; TASER International Inc. (NASDAQ: TASR) is up 5.7% at $4.39; United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is down -1.8% at $78.25; and Yandex N.V. (NASDAQ: YNDX) is down -5% at $23.31.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Inergy L.P. (NYSE: NRGY) is up 17% at $19.71. The company is being acquired by Suburban Propane Partners LP (NYSE: SPH). More coverage here.

Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) is down -20.2% at $6.16. The wireless carrier fell sharply on disappointing quarterly results. More coverage here.

Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) is down -14.8% at $33.03. The technology provider beat estimates but issued weak guidance.

Stay tuned for Friday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – GDP report
• 8:30 a.m. – Employment cost index
• 9:55 a.m. – Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

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The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA more than 130 points to 12,929.59 (-1.0%), the NASDAQ fell more than 33 points (-1.08%) to 3,047.08, and the S&P 500 fell -1.14% or nearly 16 points to 1,382.20.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) cut to ‘neutral’ at BTIG; LinkedIn Corp. (NYSE: LNKD) started as ‘hold’ at Needham; Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) cut to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup; Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. (NYSE: MJN) reiterated ‘outperform’ with target price of $82 at Credit Suisse; and Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ: GOLD) raised to ‘buy’ at Stifel Nicolaus.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: WD-40 Co. (NASDAQ: WDFC) is up 0.56% at $45.03, and Greenbrier Companies (NYSE: GBX) is down -6.4% at $18.45. The new earnings season begins in earnest tomorrow with Supervalu Inc. (NYSE: SVU) reporting before markets open and Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reporting after the markets close.

Here’s our preview of the coming week’s top earnings reports.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

AOL Inc. (NYSE: AOL) is up 43% at $26.37 after posting a new 5-week high of $27.47 earlier today. The company sold a package of patents to Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) More coverage here.

ClickSoftware Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: CKSW) is down nearly -16% at $10.56. The workforce management software company lowered its first quarter outlook. More coverage here.

Great Wolf Resorts Inc. (NASDAQ: WOLF) is up more than 12% at $7.39 after posting a new 52-week high of $7.45 earlier today. The company is the target of a bidding war. More coverage here.

Soon-to-be-public Facebook Inc. paid $1 billion in cash and stock for photo-sharing site Instagram. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, Minneapolis Fed President Naryana Kocherlakota, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart are all giving speeches. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:30 a.m. – NFIB small business optimism index
• 10:00 a.m. – Wholesale trade
• 11.30 a.m. – 4-week bill auction
• 1:00 p.m. – 3-year note auction

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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Cut to Neutral at BTIG.

The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Eaton Corporation (NYSE: ETN) named the value stock of the day at Zacks.

E*TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

F5 Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: FFIV) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (NASDAQ: HBAN) Reiterated Neutral at Zacks.

LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) Started as Hold at Needham.

Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (NYSE: MJN) Reiterated Outperform with $82 target at Credit Suisse.

Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR) Maintained Hold but raised estimates at Argus.

Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.

SBA Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: SBAC) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: AMTD) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC) Raised to Buy at Argus.

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.

Credit Suisse has previewed top banks and noted on Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM): “We look BAC, C and JPM to benefit from improved trading in 1Q.” The firm talked up loan growth and demand and sees attractive valuations with improved profitability and greater capital deployment.

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Core Laboratories NV (NYSE: CLB) almost made it to $125.00 today and shares are still up about 2% as the company is a production enhancer for the petroleum industry.

Clean Harbors, Inc. (NYSE: CLH) is up 6.5% at $69.90 after earnings beat yet again.  This one has had a serious run over the last decade and is now a $3.7 billion stock in environmental remediation. 

Commvault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CVLT) went north of $55.20 today on strength of its data and information management software applications.  So much for considering this a buyout candidate at an all-time high trading at about 50-times earnings.

Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) is up almost 7% after earnings ahead of tax season as more and more ‘do-it-yourselfers’ are doing their own taxes.  The market value here is now $18.2 billion.

Lions Gate Entertainment Corporation (NYSE: LGF) briefly hit a new all-time high of $12.75 on the day and shares are still positive.  This is ahead of the trilogy for The Hunger Games. It looks like Jim Cramer was right here about ultimately heading to $15.00 per share, at least so far.

Lorillard, Inc. (NYSE: LO) was a surprise all-time high above $130 today. It is a tobacco stock worth $17 billion and its dividend is now counted as bout 4.9%.

Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) continues to win from just being the swipe merchant who wins off of each and every time a consumer has his card swiped at the register.  Shares are now over $400.00 and the dividend has a long way to go before drawing in big dividend chasers.

Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (NYSE: MJN) is shocking to see on the list considering that its false alarm over Enfamil being mistakenly put as the cause for infant deaths. The company was cleared of this and it remains a strong player. Shares went over $78.00 today.

Sourcefire, Inc. (NASDAQ: FIRE) is up 22% after a great earnings forecast based upon strong cyber security demand.  Shares went over $44.00 today, ap almost 100% from its 52-week low and up from a brief low of $5.00 or so back at the peak of the end of 2008 selling.

JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up about 125 points to 12,294.68 (1.03%), the NASDAQ rose more than 19 points (0.74%) to 2,618.64, and the S&P 500 rose 0.9% or more than 11 points to 1,265.31.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) cut from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ at Standpoint Research; RAM Energy Resources Inc. (NYSE: RAM) raised from ‘market perform’ to ‘outperform’ at Rodman; Trius Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TSRX) started as ‘outperform’ at Robert W. Baird; Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) maintained as ‘hold’ with a lowered price target of $36 at Jefferies; and Scana Corp. (NYSE: SCG) maintained as ‘buy’ with raised price target of $43 at Wunderlich.

Here are today’s post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Bioanalytical Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BASI) is up more than 15% at $1.60 and CalAmp Corp. (NASDAQ: CAMP) is down more than -19% at $4.13. All told a light day for earnings reports.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

RAM Energy Resources Inc. (NASDAQ: RAM) is up nearly 21% at $2.43. The independent oil & gas company continues its run from yesterday, when if finished up more than 70% on news of re-listing on Nasdaq and a $550 million private equity investment.

North American Energy Partners Inc. (NYSE: NOA) is up more than 33% at $6.98. The oil field services company will resume its contract with Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (NYSE: CNQ) pending a final contract signing.

First Acceptance Corp. (NYSE: FAC) is up nearly 33% at $1.36. A director of the insurance company bought 200,000 shares on Wednesday.

PHH Corp. (NYSE: PHH) is down more than -5% at $10.53. The mortgage servicer’s credit ratings were cut yesterday at S&P  and the fallout continues.

Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. (NYSE: MJN) is down about -5.5% at $64.97. The food processing company had its Enfamil infant formula recalled at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) yesterday, and Walgreen’s, Safeway, Kroger, and Supervalu stores followed today.

Shutterfly Inc. (NASDAQ: SFLY) is down nearly -5% at $23.89. The Internet photo site cut its fourth-quarter guidance this morning.

Markets are closed Monday, December 26. Stay tuned for Tuesday. Here are the noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 9:00 a.m. – S&P Case-Shiller housing price index
• 10:00 a.m. – Conference Board consumer sentiment index
• 10:00 a.m. – State Street investor confidence index

Have a Merry Christmas Day and great weekend.

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Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) Maintained Hold but cut estimates at Argus.
Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ABAT) Cut to Market Perform at Rodman & Renshaw.
Amazon.com inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Maintained Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Reiterated Hold at Argus.
Complete Genomics, Inc. (NASDAQ: GNOM) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Emulex Corporation (NYSE: ELX) Raised to Hold at S&P Equity Research (late-Monday).
Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI) Maintained Hold but cut 2011 targets and raised 2012 targets at Argus.
Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) Reiterated Buy and Raised estimates at Jefferies.
Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (NYSE: MJN) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Navistar International Corp. (NYSE: NAV) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Nielsen Holdings B.V. (NYSE: NLSN) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO) kept as Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

HCA Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HCA) has come off its so-called quiet period and analysts have initiated their coverage on the stock: Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs; Started as Buy at Citigroup; Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse; Started as Outperform at RBC; Started as Buy at BofA/Ml; Started as Overweight at JPMorgan; Started as Overweight at Barclays.

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JON C. OGG

Gabelli said that for the period ending April 30, the Focus Five outperformed the S&P 500, and is now +184.47% since inception (Jan. 31, 2006) vs. -2.18% for the S&P.

HSN Inc. (NASDAQ: HSNI) is listed as Strong Comps + Takeout… “The second-largest multichannel commerce network in the US had 2009 sales of $2.8 billion with EBITDA of $194 million. We believe multichannel retail is in the early stages of renewed secular sales growth, and that HSN’s experienced management team should be able to improve EBITDA margins substantially.Focus on the Liberty Media standstill agreement, which limits its ownership to 32% and expires in August 2010. We believe there are strategic advantages in a combination of HSNI and QVC. At ~7x 2011P EBITDA $257 million, we view shares as attractive based on current market dynamics and the potential for improved profitability and multiple expansion.”

Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (NYSE: MJN) is listed as Strong EM Growth… “The pediatric nutrition market category is expected to increase from $23 billion to over $30 billion by 2014.  MJN has leading share in the U.S. as well as many emerging markets, and currently operates in 139 cities in China.  Focus on MJN’s growth in emerging markets, most notably China, which grew by 25% in Q409.  We continue to view MJN as an attractive target for strategic acquirers who are looking to increase their exposure to fast-growing, healthy product categories.

TD AMERITRADE Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: AMTD) is listed as Financial Leverage… “As a leader in the online brokerage industry, AMTD is well positioned to participate from industry growth and consolidation. AMTD has increased client assets at a 7% annual rate, including $62 billion in net new assets.  As a holder of a large float of customer assets ($52.3 billion in spread-based balances), we believe the first 100 bps change in the Fed Funds rate could improve annual earnings by about $0.28/shr.”

TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) is listed as En Banc = Endgame… “We believe TIVO’s intellectual property to pause / rewind / play live TV makes them a likely takeover target to a variety of potential acquirers, including technology companies Cisco, Microsoft or Apple and distributors such as DISH or DTV.  TIVO trades at a significant discount to our 2011 PMV of $22 based on DISH and other operators entering contracts of $1.50+ per sub per month creating high margin recurring revenue.  We expect DISH’s en banc review to be rejected.”

Weatherford International Ltd. (NYSE: WFT) is listed as Performance Back on Track… “A unique global footprint positions WFT to capitalize on growing exploration and production in key markets such as Russia and Iraq.  Weatherford’s expanded product offering in the $13B directional drilling services market provides revenue growth opportunities and makes it an attractive acquisition target for a larger energy services company.  Focus on sequential quarterly earnings improvement as WFT is more levered to a recovery in international oil directed drilling activity and a restoration of institutional investor confidence following renewed quarterly guidance.  WFT trades at a compelling valuation 16.5x 2011 EPS of $1.10, 8x EBITDA, and a discount to our PMV of $22.”

Those removed from the FOCUS FIVE list are Cablevision Systems (NYSE: CVC), Coca-Cola FEMSA (NYSE: KOF), Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ), Mastercard, Inc. (NYSE: MA) and ITT Educational Services (NYSE: ESI).

JON C. OGG

Sponsor: 26 Cheap Stocks to Sell – Cheap stocks have been on a tear recently, but nine out of ten stocks are circling the drain!

It appears that after today that Bristol-Myers Squibb is finally going to drop off the radar of the most active contracts and open interest in options trading.  So far we have yet to see the trades roll out further on the calendar in 2010 to January, March, or June.

Bristol-Myers has seemed to be one of the routine largest open interest series out there.  The open interest that we reviewed last weekend for the DEC09 $30 CALLS was 633,140 contracts and the DEC09 $30 PUTS was 617,642 contracts.  This has gone opposite of what we expected too.  Rather than that open interest dwindling off, it has grown and was listed at 897,520 contracts in the DEC-2009 $30 CALLS and 908,246 of the DEC-2009 $30 PUTS.   On Thursday there were 95,050 contracts of the CALLS and 106,101 contracts of the PUTS.

Mead Johnson options have been active as well.  The DEC-2009 $50 CALLS traded 23,634 contracts on Thursday versus an open interest of 94,131 contracts.  The DEC-2009 $50 PUTS traded 25,571 contracts on Thursday versus an open interest of 94,256 contracts in the open interest.  The Mead Johnson shares traded over 15 million shares on Thursday versus an average volume of over 2.1 million shares, and that $41.96 share price compares to a 52-week range (less than a year actually) of $25.72 to $50.35.  Mead Johnson has also averaged over 10 million shares this week each day.

This would look like a straddle on a static basis in Bristol-Myers outside of this spin-off and index weighting change.  That 60 million shares on a fully leveraged basis last weekend (from the Bristol-Myers open interest) looks like 90 million shares worth of options volume on a fully-leveraged basis today.  Bristol-Myers traded 33.7 million shares on last Friday, yet Thursday’s trading volume was over 50 million shares and that has seen over 50 million shares on average each day this week.  In September and October this traded closer to 10 million shares.

The new 52-week trading range is $17.23 to $26.17, after the prior 52-week high of $25.97 was violated this week.  They say that active options trading generally makes stocks gravitate toward their closest most active options strike price as expiration gets closer and closer.  If so, Friday’s trading on options expiration date should have an interesting swing to it.

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JON C. OGG

AOL Inc. (NYSE: AOL) Started as Underperform at Credit Suisse.
ARM Holdings (NASDAQ: ARMH) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) Raised to Buy at Societe Generale.
Finisar (NASDAQ: FNSR) Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
Mead Johnson Nutrition (NYSE: MJN) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) Raised to Hold from Sell at Jesup & Lamont.
PMC-Sierra (NASDAQ: PMCS) Cut to Equal Weight at BArclays.
RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
Sterling Bancshares (NASDAQ: SBIB) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) Raised to Outperform at Baird.

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JON C. OGG

We have compiled detailed data on each company.  For earnings we have offered Thomson Reuters estimates, trend and valuation analysis, as well as other key color on what to watch out for.  On the other event-driven situations, we have offered color on each and assigned a handicapping for what the stocks are likely to do on Monday or at the event.

Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) is reporting earnings on Tuesday after the close and Thomson Reuters estimates are $0.37 EPS and $752.54 million in revenues. This will also be its fiscal year-end with estimates at $1.52 EPS and $2.94 billion in revenues. At $35.38. it is close to 52-week highs versus a range of $15.70 to $37.15.  That gives trailing estimates ratios of 23.2-times earnings and about 6.2-times revenues. There are a few things to consider here which are both wild cards.  The $1.8 billion Omniture buyout closed during the quarter and Adobe said it was laying off 9% of its workforce on top of Omniture cuts.  It last reiterated guidance on October 7: The Company’s Q4 target ranges are the following: revenue of $690 to $740 million and $0.33 to $0.39 non-GAAP EPS.  As analysts are sometimes awful at accounting for mergers in earnings and revenue projections, we are keeping a light watch on this one.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) took an old Alan Abelson-esque hit from Barron’s this weekend, although it was written by Andrew Bary instead.  The company is praised, but Barron’s addresses the exact same thing I addressed before over too lofty of valuations.  Barron’s wrote the story “Amazon’s Daunting Challenge” and said “the online retailer deserves Wall Street’s admiration, but its stock is way too rich. Even under the best scenario, the shares could tumble.”  Unless an analyst upgrades or pounds the table or we have a runaway bull market on Monday’s global markets, this stock will probably be opening lower by more than 1%. At $134.15, shares are already down more than $10 from recent all-time highs versus a 52-week range of $47.52 to $145.90.

AXA (NYSE: AXA) is almost hard to love as it is a French insurance giant.  Barron’s gave it the cover story this weekend and called it “Très Bien!” noting that the company is ready to grab market share from its rivals.  Average volume is rather small for its size because of the ADR status at $22.92 its 52-week trading range is $7.20 to $29.50.  We’ll handicap a $23.75 opening price here, but the ADR status and the low volume may keep investors from chasing this one up too much.  Keep in mind that I significantly under-handicapped the gain when Sprint Nextel was given a huge boost from Barron’s, so it may be too conservative of a call here on my part.

Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) reports earnings on Tuesday morning.  If there is one single retailer that technology and consumer electronics will try to use for a benchmark of sales for makers of MP3 players, PCs, printers, LCD TVs, computers, video games and more, it is Best Buy.  At $44.34, the stock is pennies shy of a year high versus a 52-week range of $22.92 to $44.50.  The thing to consider is that the earnings estimates of $0.43 EPS and $11.98 billion in revenues are almost immaterial.  The only thing anyone cares about is the current quarter we are in now for retailers as the Holy Grail quarter.  Those estimates from Thomson Reuters are $1.73 EPS and $15.51 billion in revenues and the FEB-2010 fiscal estimates are $2.95 EPS and $48.59 billion in revenues.  That gives the stock a P/E of 15 for the current year if it is just met.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) is apparently going to FINALLY drop off the radar of the most active in options trading.  It seems forever that Bristol-Myers has been one of the most active options series for what may be nothing.  This coming Friday will either mark the end of that or the trades will have to roll out further on the calendar.  Friday is quadruple witching date for options traders.  And Bristol-Myers has long been one of the largest open interest series out there.  The open interest for the DEC09 $30 CALLS is 633,140 contracts and the DEC09 $30 PUTS is 617,642 contracts.  Without knowing who or why the trades were put on, on a static basis that effectively represents a straddle trade bet on the price move of over 60 million shares on a fully leveraged basis.  Bristol-Myers traded 33.7 million shares on Friday when trading was light in many issues for a 1% gain to $25.80 versus a 52-week trading range of $17.23 to $25.97 (high was hit Friday too).  There is likely going to be significant options-related trading this week as this position gets cleaned up, assuming the owner(s) do not just let the options expire.  Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) is splitting off its approximately 83% holdings in Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (NYSE: MJN) and that is probably tied to this event for an index change.

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) is on deck with earnings Thursday as well.  At $63.86, the stock is close to a 52-week high as the range has been $38.24 to $66.35.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.71 EPS and $4.39 billion in revenues, and we may get to hear about what the company will do as far as backing Tiger Woods now that Woods is out of golf until he mends his personal problems.  With so much of Nike sales now outside the U.S., we’ll get to see what a weak dollar before the latest pile into the US Dollar did for the company.  Don’t hold your breath on this happening, but maybe the company will change some slogans to “Just Did It!” or “Just Tap It!”…

Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) is going to be one of the big tech earnings this week.  At $22.78, the stock is almost at a 52-week high with its annual range of $13.80 to $23.00.  What is surprising is that options trading has been somewhat light on the name, and that expiration is on Friday.  Thomson Reuters has estimates at $0.36 EPS and $5.68 billion in revenues.  Its fiscal May-2010 estimates are $1.53 EPS and $23.66 billion, giving this one multiples of 14.9-times earnings and 4.8-times revenues.  The issue of the Sun Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ: ORCL) has started to become more of a liability, so we’ll probably hear some more data on where that stands.

OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIP) already had its analyst meeting on December 3.  This is one we had marked as December 16 with an FDA advisory committee meeting for Tarceva as a first-line maintenance therapy treatment against non-small cell lung cancer.  OSI says, “Tarceva is the only oral, non-chemotherapy agent shown to provide a statistically significant improvement in both progression-free survival and overall survival in the NSCLC maintenance setting.”  At $34.75, its 52-week trading range is $27.01 to $43.00.  If we use the 4 closest strike prices on put and calls combined, there is only just over 5,000 contracts in the open interest, so it seems that binary event traders in biotech are not giving this much of a grade one way or the other.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP) is a very odd pick to watch among our traditional unusual suspects.  Before you accuse me of cheating or looking for filler, hear me out on exactly why an ETF is fair game.  For starters, this is one of the most easy and simple ways for an investor to bet on the recovery of the US Dollar.  We may be entering a new inflation age, but it would be extremely rare for the US Dollar to decline indefinitely.  When global investors see Dubai, Greece, Ireland, and Spain all in trouble, it could end up being the saving grace.  But you don’t even need our word on this when you have the market action telling you something.  The UUP traded over 15.1 million shares, almost 4-times normal volume and the highest volume in shares seen EVER since its March-2007 launch, and it rose 0.8% to $22.68 versus a 52-week trading range of $22.02 to $26.83.  The real kicker is the options trading as Friday had 342,682 contracts trade of the MAR10 $23.00 CALLS versus an open interest of 105,007.  That represents a 34 million share bet on a fully leveraged basis.  The Dollar-Trade was one of the most crowded on the way down, and it will be one of the most crowded on the way back up if that occurs.  Whenever you see long-term currency bets pop up like this, you usually end up with a confused rush in and out and many  uncomfortable investors.  As a day trader friend of mine named Ike called trading for gains and investing with disbelief during the tech bubble of 1999 and 2000 because of the inflows and herd chasing and chasing… PIPO: panic in, panic out!

Research-in-Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) is on deck with earnings this coming Thursday after the close.  We would watch the DEC09 PUT and CALL option activity on Wednesday and Thursday because options expire on Friday and it is almost certain that traders will be making volatility trades to see if R-I-M will pull another 20% up or down reaction.  Unlike other key tech stocks, this $63.84 close on Friday is not at all close to any key tops or bottoms with a 52-week range of $35.05 to $88.08.  But… here is where this gets interesting…. The averages will change slightly by Thursday, but the 50-day moving average is $62.79 and the 200-day moving average is $67.14.  Even with a near 3% drop Friday, R-I-M is up from $58.00 in just over a week and the stock is now crammed right between the two averages.  In short, you could see a major move based upon what R-I-M delivers.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.04 EPS and $3.79 billion for the November quarter.  The fiscal year-end is next quarter, and those estimates are $4.15 EPS and $14.86 billion and that in turn gives implied ratios of 15.3-times earnings.

Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V) is the biggest one to watch this week as an S&P 500 Index addition. Its market cap varies from every source: $63.28 billion at Yahoo! Finance,  Google Finance is $68.65 billion, and Bloomberg is at $60.4 billion; but either way you will have millions of shares which get purchased this week ahead of the addition and particularly on Friday toward the closing bell.  That also coincides with the options expiration date.  Shares rose 3.3% to $84.10 in the after-hours session on Friday evening after S&P made its huge index change announcement after closing down 1.2% at $81.34 versus a 52-week trading range of $41.78 to $83.40.   We would expect a move of 5% or even more in total based upon the market cap.  Visa trades almost 5.5 million shares a day and the stock only traded 64,000 shares in the after-hours session.

Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC)…. Will it or won’t it?  That is the question we’ll again be hanging for whether or not the bank will try to get Uncle Sam out of its executive suites by repaying the TARP.  A financial industry leader meeting Monday with the Obama administration may bring more light on the topic.

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Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2009