Reuters: Chinese investors are holding a large amount of gold.
Reuters: Bernanke sees tighter policies as the economy improves.
Reuters: The Congressional Oversight Panel says that the US plan to help homeowners with mortgages is not enough.
Reuters: The FDIC questioned a review of Citigroup (NYSE:C) management. Read More
These are this morning’s top pre-market day trader alert stocks. We have more color and more detail on price and volume analysis linked through to each at VSInvestor.com:
Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: SWHC) is up over 10% and strong enough to make Dirty Harry proud. We are looking for a secondary trade in Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. (NYSE: RGR) on this one.
Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) is getting worse on higher volume after it gave an earnings warning bad enough that traders need to watch Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) and Archer-Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) for secondary trades.
Real Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: RNWK) is surging, maybe almost too much had this not still been way off 52-week highs, on a Apple iPhone and iTouch app approval.
Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) is not very exciting considering raised guidance.
Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is running higher on an upgrade and on a CEO interview with shares up now over 3%.
You can join our open email distribution list which goes out several times per week if you wish to be notified by email when the top day trader alerts hit, along with news of IPO’s, key offerings, guru investor data on Buffett and others, mergers, and more.
JON C. OGG
SEPTEMBER 10, 2009
Reuters: Political battles are likely to make this a tough year for the Fed.
Reuters: The head of Toyota (TM) warned of two more tough years.
Reuters: Lawmakers accused Fed of a cover-up in dealing with Bank of America (BAC)
Reuters: California is set to issues IOUs to conserve cash.
Reuters: The new TARP chief says economy is on the mend. Read More
Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) posted a drop in third-quarter earnings to $694 million, or $1.25 EPS. That compares to $811 million, or $1.45 EPS, a year ago. Revenue fell to $3.16 billion from $3.54 billion a year ago. Consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters were for $1.17 EPS and $3.45 billion in revenues. Monsanto also put its annual earnings at the low end of its $4.40 to $4.50 range. Estimates are for $4.40 EPS. While this is decent on the earnings front, the reorganization of the Roundup and herbicides operations is the real story here. That unit contributed the most to the revenue decline. It is hard to not wonder if this means a spin-off or sale of the unit is possible.
Read More
Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) and Intrepid Potash,Inc. (NYSE: IPI) are all recovering at least some from yesterday’s major drops. While Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) are lower again, the declines are minuscule compared to yesterday’s reaction to the news. Even the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is trading up marginally. These stocks were crushed yesterday by word of lower demand and lower prices over at K+S in Europe.
If you thought European stock news from companies doesn’t matter, this morning is proof against that notion. A German company called K+S warned of weak potash demand and announced price cuts and a drop in sales expectations. It is calling Q2 demand very weak ahead of the fall fertilization. This news has not yet been issued by US and Canadian fertilizer and potash players, but shares of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) are getting hammered. Even the agriculture ETF such as the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is getting hit along with Syngenta AG (NYSE: SYT).
Read More
These are the top pre-market analyst downgrades and negative research calls we have seen from Wall Street early this Friday morning:
Akamai Tech (AKAM) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.
CarMax (KMX) Cut to Underperform at Wachovia.
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) Started as Sell at Canaccord Adams.
GOL Linhas Areas Inteligentes S.A. (GOL) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.
Monsanto (MON) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) Cut to Sell at UBS.
Teradata (TDC) Started as Underweight at Thomas Weisel.
Under Armour (UA) Cut to “Negative” at Susquehanna.
Walt Disney (DIS) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Whole Foods (WFMI) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
JON C. OGG
These are ten of the top impact research calls with upgrades and downgrades from Wall Street early this Friday morning:
Amgen (AMGN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
ConocoPhillips (COP) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
DuPont (DD) Started as Buy at UBS.
Genzyme (GENZ) Started as Buy at Piper Jaffray.
Goldman Sachs (GS) Started as Outperform at FBR.
Monsanto (MON) Started as Buy at UBS.
Mosaic (MOS) Started as Buy at UBS.
Best Buy (BBY) Removed from Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List, but maintained as “Buy.”
Petrobras (PBR) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
VMware (VMW) Cut to Sell at Auriga.
JON C. OGG
March 27, 2009
24/7 Wall St. will name its annual CEO of the Year next week. The executive will be picked from a field of ten which we will profile this week
The CEOs are chosen on the basis of their company’s stock market and financial performances compared with their own industry groups and all large companies traded on US markets. Only firms with market caps of more than $5 billion were considered. 24/7 reviewed revenue growth, operating margins, balance sheets, return on assets, and return on equity.
These are some of the top upgrades we have seen this Monday morning with about 2 hours until the open:
Jon C. Ogg
October 6, 2008
Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) today raised its 2008 guidance again. This is in response to the clear drop in the agriculture and fertilizer sector weakness. Roundup, other glyphosate-related herbicides, and its seeds-and-traits performance are all cited as the reasons for its raised guidance.
These are some of the positive calls and upgrades we have seen from analysts this morning:
Jon C. Ogg
September 17, 2008
Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) raised fiscal 2008 earnings estimates. The crop and agriculture player now sees earnings of $3.58 to $3.60 per share. It also gave reported guidance of $3.49 to $3.51. Its prior guidance was $3.37 on an ongoing basis and $3.63 on a reported basis. First Call has estimates pegged at $3.45.
Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) has just reported its quarterly earnings report. The agriculture and seed giant has posted $1.45 EPS on $3.588 Billion in total sales. First Call had estimates at $1.34 EPS on $3.71 Billion in revenues.
Monsanto said it now expects its full-year 2008 EPS at roughly $3.63 on a reported basis and approximately $3.40 on an ongoing basis. First Call’s year-end estimates for Fiscal Aug-2008 are $3.39 EPS on $11.41 Billion in revenues.
The company is still maintaining that it targets more than a doubling of gross profit in 2012.
If the company goes out on a limb in its 9:30 AM EST conference call and forecasts fiscal Aug-2009, those estimates are $4.22 EPS on $13.13 Billion in revenues. This is factoring in growth of 24% on earnings per share and growth of 15% in revenues.
While the bottom line is a win and while the company has maintained its long-term targets, the shares are taking a breather so far this morning. Shares are down almost 3% at $131.76 in active pre-market trading. After the huge run we’ve seen in the stock, Wall Street wanted more than it just saw.
Jon C. Ogg
June 25, 2008
Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) is set to report earnings on Wednesday morning pre-market with a conference call to follow at 9:30 AM EST opening bell.
The seed and agricultural giant is expected to see earnings at $1.34 EPS on $3.71 Billion in revenues. As next quarter is past the largest growing seasons, First Call actually has a loss estimate of -$0.21 EPS on $1.93 Billion in revenues; and next quarter is the year-end with estimates at $3.39 EPS on $11.41 Billion in revenues. If the company goes out on a limb and forecasts fiscal Aug-2009, those estimates are $4.22 EPS on $13.13 Billion in revenues. This is factoring in growth of 24% on earnings per share and growth of 15% in revenues.
So how does this compare with the stock down 3% at $137.75 in mid-day trading? This gives Monsanto a current year expected P/E of 40.6 and 6.6-times revenues. For forward estimates of 32.5-times 2009 EPS and 5.75-times 2009 revenues.
Monsanto also only sits a few percentage points from its $145.80 high, yet shares were under $60.00 a year ago and are up 6-fold over the last 4-year period.
Analysts have an average target of nearly $150.00 per share, although there are now higher targets. It just raised its dividend last week well from $0.175 to $0.24 per quarter.
Options are going to be hard to gage for any reaction expectations because we have so long until JULY expiration date. But if we had to use a tool of gaging the expected move, it looks like options traders are prepared for a move of nearly $10.00 in either direction.
With this one being a key leader in the two hot markets of agriculture & seed and the strong performance, a "meeting estimates" probably won’t do much to please traders. Estimates have risen since the end of last quarter. As recently as the end of may, before it closed on some smaller acquisitions, Monsanto said it was seeking to double its gross profits by 2012.
Other key agriculture and seed issues to consider ahead of Monsanto earnings:
Jon C. Ogg
June 24, 2008
Buy land. They ain’t making any more of the stuff.–Will Rogers
Corn prices, up 47% this year, are likely to rise again. The heavy rain in the Midwest is killing off some of the crop. Flooding will do that. According to Bloomberg, "Rainstorms sweeping the biggest corn states in the U.S. are damaging a crop that’s already failing to keep pace with global demand."
Demand for corn is already at record levels. That is old news. Humans eat it, Feed cattle do the same. And, now some cars eat it in the form of ethanol.
The problem with corn and other commodities prices is that there is absolutely no reason for them to come down. Unlike oil, where there is a chance of increased supply, crop yields hold no such promise.
Unless the agriculture industry is willing to turn to genetically altered seeds, which have the capacity for generating high yields in poor soil with modest rainfall, the opportunity to change the situation simply does not exist.
The seeds from companies like Monsanto (MON) have fallen into a category similar to nuclear energy. They pose a vague danger which is hard to justify. They are easy to reject when there are alternatives.
But, the alternatives are gone, at least for improving global agricultural yield using present technology. Shifting over to new age crops, despite the obscure concerns, is the only option.
Douglas A. McIntyre
The UN sees food prices staying high for years.That not only undermines much of the global economy, it means a great many people don’t eat at all.
The UN’s solutions are to kill bio-fuel programs, wipe out ethanol for all time, and begin "wider deployment of genetically modified crops," according to Reuters.
A year or two ago, no one wanted to touch seeds which were cloned from sheep. Now, the demand is becoming spectacular.
A chance for Monsanto (MON) to save the world.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) has just announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire De Ruiter Seeds Group B.V., in The Netherlands. This is a Dutch-holding company that owns and operates De Ruiter Seeds. The total transaction value was placed at 546 million Euros, or more than $800 million depending on currency exchange rates after backing out the net debt.
Monsanto has been an acquirer of many smaller seed companies in the U.S. and internationally. The company expects this to build upon vegetable seed business as well as to enhance its growth in the protected-culture segment, which is listed as the fastest-growing space within the vegetable seeds industry. This acquisition of De Ruiter is expected to help transform Monsanto’s vegetable seed platform into a $1 billion revenue business by 2012.
As a reminder, Monsanto reports earnings this week. We just did an earnings preview for it and another ag-player.
Monsanto shares are down some 2.5% today at $111.36.
Jon C. Ogg
March 31, 2008
Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter and he can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
This week we’ll get to see two important earnings reports out of agriculture leaders. Wednesday we’ll get to see earnings out of Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON). Two key calls of late are that Goldman Sachs raised its sector expectations for the group with key earnings visibility. Jim Cramer has also been staying high on agriculture.
The estimates from First Call on Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) are $1.69 EPS on $3.56 billion in revenues. Next quarter estimates are $1.29 EPS on $3.69 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal Aug-2008 are $3.18 EPS on $11.04 billion in revenues. Monsanto did just recently guide higher because its stock had come off of highs considerably. Analysts have an average price target of $139.00, and Monsanto’s 52-week trading range is $53.95 to $129.28. Since the end of 2007, Monsanto shares are up about 3%. Its market cap is now roughly $62 Billion.
Friday we’ll get to see earnings out of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS). The estimates from First Call are $0.95 EPS on $1.92 billion in revenues. Next quarter estimates are $1.55 EPS on $2.55 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal May-2008 are $3.90 EPS on $9.01 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal May-2009 are $7.40 EPS on $12.23 billion in revenues. Analysts have an average price target north of $122.00 and Mosaic Co.’s 52-week trading range is $25.95 to $119.78. Since the end of 2007, Mosaic shares are up about 11%. Its market cap is now almost $47 Billion.
On Monday, the USDA gives the Clarence Beeks crops report showing total numbers of acreage expected to be planted, and this may create many last minute revisions to each earnings report for anything tied to agriculture suppliers from seed to machinery to transportation. As these companies are key contributors to the cop growers, these agriculture firms should already have at least a rough estimate of what is likely. Lastly, investors may want to watch the Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO) as the key ETF in the sector. Of the total estimated percentage of the ETF’s assets, Monsanto comprises 8.4% of assets and Mosaic comprises 8.5% of the assets.
Jon C. Ogg
March 30, 2008
Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter and he can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
Monsanto (NYSE: MON) has just raised its guidance for earnings per share and for free cash flows. The company is now projecting $3.15 to $3.25 EPS for fiscal-2008 targets, up from its prior guidance of $2.70 to $2.80 EPS. It does note that its as reported EPS will be in a range of $3.38 to $3.48 for the full year. Free cash flows are now being put at approximately $1.4 Billion, above the $900 million to $1 Billion previously offered.
For the coming quarter it sees $1.75 in ongoing EPS, although its as reported EPS in the range of $1.98.
The second quarter, and therefore the full year, will be favorably affected by a $0.23 item from a settlement of Monsanto’s claim in conjunction with Solutia’s emergence from bankruptcy. First Call estimates are listed as $1.35 EPS for the quarter and $2.87 EPS for the fiscal-August 2008 year-end.
Upside contribution is coming from its seeds and traits business, along with Roundup and other herbicides. Much of this strength is based on the previewing of the Northern Hemisphere planting season. Gross profits from its seeds and traits business is running ahead of plan and is now expected to show 20% growth with gross profits of $3.6 to $3.7 Billion. Roundup is now expected to show $1.7 to $1.8 Billion in gross profits. Monsanto is now expected to achieve its original target of reaching a 52% to 54% gross margin by 2010 two years ahead of schedule.
Monsanto says that it will continue to look for ways to invest in acquisitions that further growth, and it cash flows support the current business’ growth and dividend and share-repurchase programs. Earnings will formally be announced on April 2, 2008.
If you ever wonder why companies issue their guidance just days ahead of the formal date, it is often because the shares have pulled back. Shares closed down at $104.26 yesterday, but that is down from recent highs of $129.28. So far it appears to be working, as shares are up 9% to $113.70 in pre-market trading.
This raised guidance was strong enough that it is also helping out the ETF in the Agriculture sector, as the Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO) is trading up 2.3% at $54.76 in pre-market trading.
Jon C. Ogg
March 25, 2008
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