Agrium attributed its increased sales to higher volumes and higher prices for nitrogen. Last week, CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) also blasted through estimates, but the company’s best seller was also its nitrogen products. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) missed earnings estimates on lower potash sales and margins (gross margins fell -56% year-over-year). The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) also missed on earnings as potash volumes fell and phosphate costs rose. Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) pounded EPS estimates, but analysts believe that sales were all pulled forward due to the warm weather.

Agrium and CF are less dependent on potash and phosphates than are the others, and the rise in nitrogen is directly related to its ability to boost yields on the same amount of acreage. Potash fertilizer is needed to ensure healthy plants, but its contribution yields is less important.

Whether demand for nitrogen will continue through the Northern Hemisphere’s growing season remains to be seen, but as more people demand more food on the same amount of acreage, sales and margins on nitrogen are likely to keep pace.

The catch in Agrium’s results is that the company’s first half adjusted EPS guidance is a relatively weak $5.50-$6.10. Analysts had been expecting $5.67 before today’s blowout number. Investors are likely to interpret the lowish guidance as an indication that Agrium’s sales were also pulled forward into the first quarter.

Shares of Agrium are trading up about 0.13% at $84.68 in a 52-week range of $60.15-$93.49.

Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 125 points to 13,074.83(-0.95%), the NASDAQ fell more than 45 points (-1.46%) to 3,068.09, and the S&P 500 fell -1.02% or more than 14 points to 1,398.96.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM) cut to ‘neutral’ at BofA/ML; McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) removed from the ‘Conviction Buy List’ but maintained as ‘buy’ at Goldman Sachs; Southwest Airlines Corp. (NYSE: LUV) raised to ‘overweight’ at Barclays; Sandisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) cut to ‘outperform’ at RBC; and Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) added to ‘Top Pick’ list at Citigroup.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Team Inc. (NYSE: TISI) is down -12.3% at $28.83; Mitcham Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: MIND) is down -3.9% at $23.37; Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) is down -1.3% at $80.70 (more coverage here); and Acuity Brands Inc. (NYSE: AYI) is down -9.7% at $57.51. After markets close today we get earnings from AngioDynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: ANGO), Harry Winston Diamond Corp. (NYSE: HWD), and PriceSmart Inc. (NASDAQ: PSMT). Before markets open tomorrow we’ll get earnings from Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ), Pier One Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR), and SemiLEDS Corp. (NASDAQ: LEDS).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Cleveland BioLabs Inc. (NASDAQ: CBLI) is down more than -30% at $1.67 after posting a new 52-week low of $1.48. The biotech company’s funding from the federal government has been cut off.

Sandisk Corp. is down about -11% at $44.72. The flash memory maker revealed a weak outlook for the quarter. More coverage here.

THT Heat Transfer Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: THTI) is up nearly 80% at $2.30. The Chinese maker of heat exchangers reported decent earnings, but forecast revenues for the current quarter at half last quarter’s total. See our coverage yesterday of SmartHeat Inc. (NASDAQ: HEAT), another Chinese maker of heat exchangers. Just substitute the names.

CleanTech Solutions International Inc. (NASDAQ: CLNT) is up more than 177% at $6.10. The Chinese maker of metal components for wind turbines reported solid revenues last week, but profits were down. Another hard-to-figure move.

Stay tuned for Thursday. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard is giving a speech. We have also noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:30 a.m. – Challenger Gray & Christmas layoff report
• 8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
• 3:00 p.m. – Treasury STRIPS
• 4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply

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Monsanto, along with Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT), CF Industries Inc. (NYSE: CF), and Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), has seen its share price rise steadily since the first of the year. Agrium and CF Industries are up around 30% year-to-date, while Monsanto is up about 17%, Potash Corp. up about 12%, and Mosaic up more than 4%.

Monsanto reported second quarter revenue of $4.75 billion compared with a consensus estimate of $4.53 and EPS of $2.24 compared with a consensus estimate of $2.12. The company also guided full-year EPS to $3.49-$3.54, slightly better than the consensus estimate of $3.51. The company’s CEO predicted continuing growth:

We’ve seen contributions from growth across crops and geographies, which position us well to deliver high-teens ongoing earnings growth this year

The company’s seeds and genomics business posted revenue of $3.9 billion, up $503 million from the same period a year ago. Monsanto attributed the increase to its sales of corn seed, particularly in the US. The company’s fertilizer business grew from $710 million in the second quarter a year ago to $824 million this year.

Shares of Monsanto are up about 1.6% in the pre-market at $83.09 in a 52-week range of $58.89-$83.95.

Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 65 points to 13,199.55 (-0,49%), the NASDAQ fell more than 6 points (-0.20%) to 3,113.57, and the S&P 500 fell -0.41% or nearly 6 points to 1,413.29.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) started as buy at Auriga and target raised to $715 at Morgan Stanley; Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX) started as ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) started as ‘neutral’ at Citigroup; Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) cut to ‘equal weight’ at Barclays; and Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) raised to ‘buy’ at Sterne Agee.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Comverse Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: CMVT) is down -6.4% at $6.41; International Speedway Corp (NASDAQ: ISCA) is down -0.14% at $28.31; and Frisch’s Restaurants Inc. (AMEX: FRS) is down -0.04% at $27.29. After markets close today we get earnings from Team Inc. (NYSE: TISI) and Mitcham Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: MIND) markets. Before markets open tomorrow we’ll get earnings from Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) and Acuity Brands Inc. (NYSE: AYI).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

SmartHeat Inc. (NASDAQ: HEAT) is up 93% at $5.29. The Chinese maker of heat exchangers reported weak earnings, but promised to cut costs and do better. More coverage here.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is down about -8% at $22.56 after posting a new 52-week low of $22.42 earlier today. The solar panel maker is simply dying a slow death. More coverage here.

Vringo Inc. (AMEX: VRNG) is up 5.8% at $3.28 after posting a new 52-week high of $4.05 earlier today. The ringtone company is merging with a patent protection firm and this is the second day in a row that shares have posted a new high. Here’s our story from yesterday.

A123 Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: AONE) is down more than -16% at $0.85, the second consecutive day for the shares to put up a new 52-week low. The battery maker is still getting walloped over a recall and its relationship with Fisker Automotive. Here’s our story from yesterday.

Merge Healthcare Inc. (NASDAQ: MRGE) is down more than -16% at $4.95. The healthcare kiosk provider has agreed to sell $2.75 million worth of kiosks to a company controlled by Merge’s chairman.

Conn’s Inc. (NASDAQ: CONN) is up about 14.5% at $18.88 after posting a new 52-week high of $19.75. The regional electronics retailer busted through earnings expectations.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. San Francisco Fed President John Williams is giving a speech. We have also noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase applications
• 7:30 a.m. – Challenger Gray & Christmas layoff report
• 8:15 a.m. – ADP employment report
• 10:00 a.m. – Institute for Supply Management non-manufacturing index
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report

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In the firm’s equity income allocations, the firm is selling 100% of its allocation in American Electric Power Co. (NYSE: AEP) at $41.14 and is adding in Williams Companies Inc. (NYSE: WMB) at $28.22.

As far as growth and income, Argus is recommending to buy CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) at $23.32 and Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) at $79.00; and it is recommending that the model portfolio sell all of its positions in Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) at $97.17 and Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) at $19.18.

Finally, in mid-cap growth the firm’s model portfolio is buying VeriFone Systems Inc. (NYSE: PAY) at $37.12 and buying MDU Resources Group Inc. (NYSE: MDU) at $21.50.  It is selling 100% of its position in IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (NYSE: ICE) at $113.13.  Another selling stock, but only by 20% of its allocation is Hain Celestial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: HAIN).

Speaking of model portfolios, here were the 5 most undervalued DJIA stocks and the 5 least attractive DJIA stocks based upon consensus targets.  Here are the top 4 DJIA stock picks from Jim Cramer for 2012.

Also, we made a lot of changes this year to the 24/7 Wall St. 2012 Model Dividend Portfolio.

JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 3 points to 12,415.70 (-0.02%), the NASDAQ rose more than 21 points (0.81%) to 2,669.86, and the S&P 500 rose 0.29% or nearly 4 points to 1,281.05.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) maintained ‘buy’ with a $46 target price at Argus; Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) maintained ‘underperform’ and estimates cut at Needham; Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) raised to ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) cut to ‘hold’ at Benchmark; and VMWare Inc. (NYSE: VMW) started as ‘buy’ at Sterne Agee.

Earnings reports of note since markets closed yesterday include: Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) is down about -3.5% at $19.72; Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) is up more than 5.5% at $76.70; Worthington Industries Inc. (NYSE: WOR) is down -0.6% at $17.55; and Helen of Troy Ltd. (NASDAQ: HELE) is up more than 4% at $32.73.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) is up nearly 40% at $10.61. The biotech company reported a sales jump of 25% for its prostate cancer drug. The company is one of our top biotech picks for 2012.

Ancestry.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACOM) is up more than 21% at $27.69. The internet genealogy provider reported a 22% rise in subscribers and forecast sales growth for 2012 of more than 14%.

Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) is up nearly 17% at $30.74 after posting a new 52-week high earlier of $30.94. The sports apparel company reported a 10% same-store sales gain and raised guidance this morning. See our coverage here.

Orchard Supply Hardware Stores (NYSE: OSH) is down nearly -25% at $16.70. The home improvement store held its IPO on Monday and today provided a weak outlook for 2012.

Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) is down more than -17% at $11.25. The bookstore chain said today that it is considering spinning off its Nook e-reader unit as a strategic option. Our coverage is available here.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is down more than -10% at $13.61. The clothing retailer slashed its fourth-quarter profit guidance by nearly a quarter.

Stay tuned for Friday. Federal Reserve Governors Elizabeth Duke and Sarah Bloom Raskin are speaking, as are Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and New York Fed President William Dudley. Here are the noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Employment reports, including non-farm payrolls
• 3:00 p.m. – US Treasury STRIPS

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The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up about 21 points to 12,418.57 (0.17%), the NASDAQ fell less than 1 point (-0.01%) to 2,648.36, and the S&P 500 rose 0.02% or less than 1 point to 1,277.31.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) added to ‘US Focus List’ at Credit Suisse; General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD) raised to ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) reiterated ‘buy’ with $94 target price at Canaccord Genuity; Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) started as ‘underperform’ at National Bank; and Tivo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) raised to ‘overweight’ at Evercore Partners.

Earnings reports of note since markets closed yesterday include: Unifirst Corp. (NYSE: UNF) is up more than 3% at $59.83; and Progress Software Corp. (NASDAQ: PRGS) is down more than -11% at $17.55. Tomorrow sees earnings from Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ), Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), and Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) among others.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

LCA-Vision Inc. (NASDAQ: LCAV) is up more than 40% at $4.33. The laser vision correction system provider said that it performed more than 14,000 procedures in the fourth quarter, up 30% year-over-year.

Rare Element Resources Ltd. (AMEX: REE) is up more than 27% at $4.53. The rare earths miner announced that its resource at the company’s Bear Lodge project is 38% higher than previously believed.

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is up nearly 11% at $80.02. The video distributor reported that it streamed more than 2 billion hours of video in the fourth quarter. More details on this story are available here.

Acme Packet Inc. (NASDAQ: APKT) is down more than -19% at $25.65, after posting a new 52-week low of $25.20 early this morning. The networking company warned on earnings last night. We have more coverage here.

Life Partners Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LPHI) is down more than -15% at $5.38. The life insurance company has been accused of accounting fraud by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Here are the noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:30 a.m. – Challenger Gray & Christmas job-cut report
• 8:15 a.m. – ADP employment report
• 8:30 a.m. – Weekly initial unemployment benefits claims report
• 10:00 a.m. – ISM non-manufacturing index
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas report
• 11:00 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
• 4:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply reports

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According to the company’s CEO,

Isolated phosphate market spot prices have become disconnected with the underlying agricultural fundamentals. As dealers and distributors focus on the macroeconomic uncertainty and delay purchases for the North American Spring Season, near term supply of phosphate barges on the Mississippi River has exceeded near-term demand. The current spot prices in this market do not reflect our outlook for the business, nor do we think they are sustainable.

The company continues to believe that believe that demand for phosphates and potash will be strong in 2012, following this period of “near-term cautious sentiment.”

The projected cuts total about 10% of Mosaic’s quarterly production.

Paul Ausick

Fertilizer maker Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) reported third-quarter earnings this morning that were more than double earnings for the same period a year ago. But in this case, a hit may be as good as a miss. Analysts expected EPS of $0.94 on revenue of $2.17 billion. Potash Corp. delivered diluted EPS of $0.94 on revenue of $2.32 billion. Gross margin rose from 35% in the same period last year to 49% this year. The company also noted that its EPS outlook for the full fiscal year is $3.40-$3.80. The consensus estimate is $3.75. In other words, no upside surprises from Potash Corp.

At the other end of the food chain, food processor Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.86 on revenue of $15.62 billion. The consensus estimates called for EPS of $1.62 on revenue of $14.32. Only Bunge’s fertilizer operations posted a quarterly gain over the same period last year, and that a scant $9 million. The company’s outlook did not include any specific forecasts for EPS or revenue, but Bunge does expect to fall short of its original estimate of sugar refining and sees continuing pressure on oilseed prices. The company expects its fertilizer business to improve, but that is historically its smallest revenue producer.

Ag company Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) reports earnings next Tuesday, and the consensus estimates are looking for EPS of $0.67 on $18.93 billion in revenue. The company posted EPS of $1.01 in the second quarter, and the estimate has fallen by 13% over the past three months.

Fertilizer makers Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) and Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) recently reported earnings for the first quarter of their 2012 fiscal years, and the results were not particularly thrilling. Monsanto posted an EPS loss of -$0.22, though that was better than an expected loss of -$0.27. For the current quarter Monsanto is expected to post EPS of $0.12. Mosaic posted EPS of $1.17 in its quarter ended in August and analysts are expecting EPS of $1.39 for the current quarter. In its quarter ending in August 2010, Mosaic posted EPS of $1.85.

All the fertilizer makers expect to see a price hike for their products both in the current quarter and next year. The reasoning is that the global economic slowdown notwithstanding, people want and need to eat. Rising economic conditions in the developing world, especially in China and India, support food prices and because it is cheaper to increase yields by applying fertilizer than it is to bring new land into food production, the companies foresee continuing growth.

Potash Corp. noted in its earnings release that shipments of potash to China and India are set for the fourth quarter and the company expects volumes to increase and prices to rise beginning in the first quarter of 2012. Potash Corp. said that contract potash prices to India will rise by $60/metric ton beginning in January.

While the general trend of the news is positive, volatility in the food and fertilizer markets seems to have been discounted in the outlooks for the coming year. The other big problem is the unreliability of information from China regarding stockpiles and demand. One trader has said that 80% of the information out of China is misleading, and that finding the 10%-20% that is accurate and useful is more difficult than it should be. That means that counting on China for growth can be risky, at best.

Shares in Potash Corp. are trading up about 2.4% in the pre-market this morning, at $50.70, in a 52-week range of $39.54-$63.97. Bunge stock is trading up less than 1%, at $60.00, in a 52-week range of $54.03-$76.12. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is up about 1.67%, at $50.55, in a 52-week range of $39.86-$57.93.

Paul Ausick

We had many key analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including calls in shares of Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) and Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON).  The retail sector did not follow the news,  due to some fears that the holiday season is not going to be as strong as many expected.  Speaking of analyst calls and projections, there are still some extremely lofty upside price targets out there in the automotive sector.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: (only show late-day percent change and price): AT&T (NYSE: T) down about -0.1% at $28.97, Cirrus Logic, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRUS) down nearly -17% at $14.21; Polycom, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCM) down -25%, at $16.46; Phillip Morris International, Inc. (NYSE: PM) up more than 4%, at $68.77; Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) up more than 6%, at $6.50; and  Select Comfort Corporation (NASDAQ: SCSS) up more than 20%, at $19.38.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Riverbed Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: RVBD jumped more than 9.5%, to $24.69, following a better than expected earnings report after markets closed last night.

Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) rose nearly 13%, to $11.56, after getting approval for wider use of its diabetes drug and posting a smaller than expected third-quarter loss.

Clearwire Corp. (NASDAQ: CLWR) shares are up nearly 13% as well, to $1.57, probably as a result of indications that its spectrum licenses could get some competitive bids.

Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD) is up nearly 7%, to $62.06, after reporting a 33% rise in income for the third quarter.

After a busy week of economic data, there are no major market moving economic reports due Friday morning.  Look for Fed-head speeches on Friday from Kocherlakota, Fisher, and Yellen throughout the day.  Most importantly, watch for more news out of Europe on just how much the Europeans are going to throw into their European Financial Stability Fund (Europe’s mini-me version of the TARP).

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