Posts for Ticker ‘MOO’

When Special Dividends Don’t Deliver (MOS, MOO)

Mosaic LogoSometimes special dividends make sense, and sometimes they do not.  Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) traded lower most of the trading day after the fertilizer and potash giant declared a special cash dividend of $1.30 per share.  The company also reaffirmed its 2010 capital spending guidance, but the special dividend failed to excite many investors.  With a prior close of $51.79, that is a 2.5% special return.  Generally speaking, special dividends have a higher return than this.  They also tend to come when an entity feels that it has no better use of its capital.  Yet the reaction today was an unfavorable one, and there are reasons why.
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Fertilizer Wars Heat Up Again (CF, TRA, AGU, MOO)

magazin

Fertilizer maker CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) said it has purchased 7% of the shares of competitor Terra Industries Inc. (NYSE:TRA) on the open market. CF has also renewed its offer to purchase the remaining shares of Terra, this time for about $4 billion. The latest offer values Terra at about $40/share and includes a $7.50/share adjustment to pay for a special dividend that Terra proposes to issue to its shareholders.

CF Industries is itself trying to resist a buyout from Canadian fertilizer maker Agrium Inc. (NYSE:AGU), which last week extended its exchange offer for CF until October 22nd. That offer includes $40/share in cash plus one share of Agrium stock for each share of CF stock. Read More »

Top Day Trader Alerts (SWHC, RGR, MON, MOO, ADM, RNWK, TXN, YHOO)

These are this morning’s top pre-market day trader alert stocks.  We have more color and more detail on price and volume analysis linked through to each at VSInvestor.com:

Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: SWHC) is up over 10% and strong enough to make Dirty Harry proud. We are looking for a secondary trade in Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. (NYSE: RGR) on this one.

Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) is getting worse on higher volume after it gave an earnings warning bad enough that traders need to watch Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) and Archer-Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) for secondary trades.

Real Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: RNWK) is surging, maybe almost too much had this not still been way off 52-week highs, on a Apple iPhone and iTouch app approval.

Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) is not very exciting considering raised guidance.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is running higher on an upgrade and on a CEO interview with shares up now over 3%.

You can join our open email distribution list which goes out several times per week if you wish to be notified by email when the top day trader alerts hit, along with news of IPO’s, key offerings, guru investor data on Buffett and others, mergers, and more.

JON C. OGG
SEPTEMBER 10, 2009

Analyst Dumps Agriculture & Fertilizers (MOS, POT, MOO)

Bull and Bear ImageThis morning is looking a little rough for some of the farming, agriculture, fertilizer, and potash stocks.  We have seen a downgrade in the sector from UBS this morning.  Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) and Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) were both downgraded to Neutral from Buy by the analyst team at UBS today.  This broad call is also going to have an impact on Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO).
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New Fertilizer Dump, India and USDA (POT, MOS, AGU, CF, TRA, TNH, IPI, MOO)

Broken Money Merger ImageFertilizer stocks just can’t catch a break.  If it isn’t an official earnings warning to watch out for or the stock market and economic growth concerns, then it government data.  New data reported from the U.S. Department of Agriculture has raised concerns that farmers are going without fertilizer.  Add in a report of another price drop in potash in India and you have the double whammy.  Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), Terra Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRA), Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (NYSE: TNH), and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) are all seeing some action today.  Just not good action.  Even the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is getting hit.

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Potash Earnings Issues Now Credibility Issues (POT, MOS, AGU, CF, TRA, TNH, IPI, MOO)

Burning Money PicPotash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) did last night what most traders already feared was coming. The Canadian potash supply giant said that weak demand for its products and lower prices were going to take earnings for the quarter down to about $0.70 EPS versus a previous forecast of $1.10 to $1.50 EPS.  This is hitting other potash and fertilizer companies including Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), Terra Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRA), Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (NYSE: TNH), and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI).  Even the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is indicated to open lower this morning.
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Giving Ag, Potash, and Fertilizers A Second Chance (MON, POT, MOS, IPI, AGU, CF, MOO)

money-stack-imageMonsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) and Intrepid Potash,Inc. (NYSE: IPI) are all recovering at least some from yesterday’s major drops.  While Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) are lower again, the declines are minuscule compared to yesterday’s reaction to the news.  Even the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is trading up marginally.  These stocks were crushed yesterday by word of lower demand and lower prices over at K+S in Europe.

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Potash and Fertilizer Stocks Skunked By News From Germany (POT, MOS, MON, AGU, CF, IPI, MOO, SYT)

burning-money-picIf you thought European stock news from companies doesn’t matter, this morning is proof against that notion.  A German company called K+S warned of weak potash demand and announced price cuts and a drop in sales expectations.  It is calling Q2 demand very weak ahead of the fall fertilization.  This news has not yet been issued by US and Canadian fertilizer and potash players, but shares of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) are getting hammered.  Even the agriculture ETF  such as the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is getting hit along with Syngenta AG (NYSE: SYT).
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Fertilizer Merger Wars Heating Up (TRA, CF, AGU, MOO)

money-stack-image30The president and CEO of Terra Industries Inc. (NYSE:TRA) has apparently purchased 100 shares of stock in CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) and requested CF to provide him with a list of all CF shareholders so that he can get in touch with them. CF’s CEO is not amused. In his reply, he asked why Terra’s chief appears to be more interested in communicating with stockholders than in negotiating a merger agreement with the company.

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Opportunism Everywhere in Fertilzer Business (CF, AGU, TRA, MOO)

money-stack-image16Fertilizer maker CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) this morning rejected a buyout offer from Canada’s Agrium, Inc. (NYSE: AGU). The stock and cash offer was valued at about $72/share of CF stock.  Last week,  Terra Industries, Inc. (NYSE: TRA), a fertilizer maker, rejected CF’s $2.1 billion all stock bid.

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Mosiac Braces For Earnings (MOS, POT, MOO)

Mosaic_logoAfter today’s close, we’ll get to see earnings out of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS).  The fertilizer and potash giant is expected to post $1.64 EPS on $2.85 Billion in revenues.

Estimates for next quarter are $2.85 EPS on $3.95 Billion in revenues.   Today is also the report for its Fiscal-2008, so if the company offers guidance for Fiscal May-2009 is $12.83 EPS vs. $17.64 Billion in revenues.

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Investors Brace For Potash Earnings (POT, MOO)

Thursday morning, we’ll get to see earnings out of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT). The estimates for the potash producer from First Call are $1.52 EPS on $1.67 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $2.27 EPS on $2.34 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal Dec-2008 are $8.62 EPS on $8.29 billion in revenues.

Analysts have an average price target north of $200.00, and the 52-week trading range is $58.87 to $214.84.  Shares closed down $10.71 today at $204.12.  With all the upgrades seen in late 2007 to early 2008, it’s either time for analysts to increase targets or make their "valuation" comments now that shares are above many price targets even though the ratings are still very positive.

These potash and fertilizer stocks have run up with such fervor that investors will not accept any "weak economy" comments or any in-line guidance, particularly after the recent huge price hikes were announced to China.

Its conference call will not be until 1:00 PM EST Thursday, which gives it little competition among investors since most post-earnings conference calls will be completed by then.

We’ve already seen competitor earnings, but this is one of the key stocks out of the potash group.  The Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO) is what we’ll be watching most closely for the secondary effect.

We recently featured a hidden asset play that may actually be its own company after a spin-off IPO in the fertilizer sector to subscribers of our Special Situation Investing Newsletter as a bonus issue.  It isn’t a potash play as the company has a low-cost advantage for nitrogen fertilizer products, but anything tied to fertilizer in the U.S. has seen shares rocket over the last 12 months. 

Stay tuned as this has been the hottest sector around. 

Jon C. Ogg
April 23, 2008

Canpotex Owners Surge On Potash Price Hikes For China (POT, MOS, AGU, MOO)

There was a significant agreement out of Canada between it and China, via Canpotex (Canadian Potash Exporters).  Canpotex is the world’s largest exporter of potash.  Canpotex announced potash price increases between Canpotex and Sinofert in China, which actually will be paid out the rest of 2008.

This calls for shipment of 1 million metric tons of potash at $576 per metric ton, which appears to be a $400 per metric ton increase over the 2007 price.

This is going to add significantly again to fertilizer and potash players involved, and all are trading higher in pre-market trading.  Companies which own Canpotex are Mosaic Inc. (NYSE: MOS), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT), and Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU).

Pre-market movers are:

  • Mosaic Inc. (NYSE: MOS) up over 3.7% at $132.40, above the $129.93 high over the last 52-weeks.
  • Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) up 4% at $184.41, 52-week range is $58.87 to $185.49.
  • Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) up over 4.5% at $82.70; above the $80.67 high over the last 52-weeks.

These are actually up enough that they are moving the key ETF, the Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO) by over 2% to $61.50.  That 52-week trading range was $40.19 to $60.62.

Where is that IPO from Intrepid Potash?

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other IPO’s, back door plays into IPO’s, spin-offs. break-ups, and other special situations we frequently preview.

Jon C. Ogg
April 16, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter.  He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

After Mosaic Earnings, Fertilizer Tastes Better Than Chicken (MOS, MOO)

Shares of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) are surging pre-market after beating its earnings expectations.  The company posted a record posted a record $520.8 million in net income, translating to $1.17 EPS from $2.15 Billion in revenues.  First Call had estimates at $0.95 EPS.

Mosaic also said that its phosphate selling price would jump over the next three months by up to 48% to $720 per metric ton, up from an average of $487 per metric ton this last quarter.  Its sales volume was maintained at 2.2 to 2.4 million metric tons.

These high prices are more than offsetting cost increases for its raw materials needed to make potash.  The company is benefiting from worldwide demand for for fertilizers and potash.  As the global population grows and as the rest of the world’s living standards rise, the demand for more grown food and agriculture keeps rising and rising.

Mosaic shares are up 8% at $112.90 in pre-market trading right before the open.  its 52-week trading range is $27.25 to $119.78.  The numbers were strong enough that the Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO) ETF was even indicated up 3% at the same time.

Soon they’ll be opening all you can eat Chinese buffets all over the world.

Jon C. Ogg
April 4, 2008

Agriculture Earnings Duel: Mosaic vs. Monsanto (MOS, MON, MOO)

This week we’ll get to see two important earnings reports out of agriculture leaders.   Wednesday we’ll get to see earnings out of Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON). Two key calls of late are that Goldman Sachs raised its sector expectations for the group with key earnings visibility.  Jim Cramer has also been staying high on agriculture. 

The estimates from First Call on Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) are $1.69 EPS on $3.56 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $1.29 EPS on $3.69 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal Aug-2008 are $3.18 EPS on $11.04 billion in revenues.  Monsanto did just recently guide higher because its stock had come off of highs considerably.  Analysts have an average price target of $139.00, and Monsanto’s 52-week trading range is $53.95 to $129.28.  Since the end of 2007, Monsanto shares are up about 3%.  Its market cap is now roughly $62 Billion.

Friday we’ll get to see earnings out of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS). The estimates from First Call are $0.95 EPS on $1.92 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $1.55 EPS on $2.55 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal May-2008 are $3.90 EPS on $9.01 billion in revenues. Estimates for fiscal May-2009 are $7.40 EPS on $12.23 billion in revenues.  Analysts have an average price target north of $122.00 and Mosaic Co.’s 52-week trading range is $25.95 to $119.78.  Since the end of 2007, Mosaic shares are up about 11%.  Its market cap is now almost $47 Billion.

On Monday, the USDA gives the Clarence Beeks crops report showing total numbers of acreage expected to be planted, and this may create many last minute revisions to each earnings report for anything tied to agriculture suppliers from seed to machinery to transportation.  As these companies are key contributors to the cop growers, these agriculture firms should already have at least a rough estimate of what is likely.  Lastly, investors may want to watch the Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO) as the key ETF in the sector.  Of the total estimated percentage of the ETF’s assets, Monsanto comprises 8.4% of assets and Mosaic comprises 8.5% of the assets.

Jon C. Ogg
March 30, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter and he can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Monsanto Raises Guidance, Right Ahead of Earnings (MON, MOO)

Monsanto (NYSE: MON) has just raised its guidance for earnings per share and for free cash flows.  The company is now projecting $3.15 to $3.25 EPS for fiscal-2008 targets, up from its prior guidance of $2.70 to $2.80 EPS.  It does note that its as reported EPS will be in a range of $3.38 to $3.48 for the full year.  Free cash flows are now being put at approximately $1.4 Billion, above the $900 million to $1 Billion previously offered.

For the coming quarter it sees $1.75 in ongoing EPS, although its as reported EPS in the range of $1.98.

The second quarter, and therefore the full year, will be favorably affected by a $0.23 item from a settlement of Monsanto’s claim in conjunction with Solutia’s emergence from bankruptcy.  First Call estimates are listed as $1.35 EPS for the quarter and $2.87 EPS for the fiscal-August 2008 year-end.

Upside contribution is coming from its seeds and traits business, along with Roundup and other herbicides.  Much of this strength is based on the previewing of the Northern Hemisphere planting season.  Gross profits from its seeds and traits business is running ahead of plan and is now expected to show 20% growth with gross profits of $3.6 to $3.7 Billion. Roundup is now expected to show $1.7 to $1.8 Billion in gross profits.  Monsanto is now expected to achieve its original target of reaching a 52% to 54% gross margin by 2010 two years ahead of schedule.

Monsanto says that it will continue to look for ways to invest in acquisitions that further growth, and it cash flows support the current business’ growth and dividend and share-repurchase programs.  Earnings will formally be announced on April 2, 2008.

If you ever wonder why companies issue their guidance just days ahead of the formal date, it is often because the shares have pulled back.  Shares closed down at $104.26 yesterday, but that is down from recent highs of $129.28.  So far it appears to be working, as shares are up 9% to $113.70 in pre-market trading.

This raised guidance was strong enough that it is also helping out the ETF in the Agriculture sector, as the Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO) is trading up 2.3% at $54.76 in pre-market trading.

Jon C. Ogg
March 25, 2008

Agriculture ETF Wars: Commodity ETF Beats Stock ETF (MOO, DBA, TITN)

Investors seem to not be able to get enough when it comes to investing in agriculture now.  This used to be a dead boring sector but it’s now the top performer with earnings visibility and with raised earnings expectations soaring.  Last year we saw an agriculture ETF get launched via the Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO).  This has seen a monster gain with the ETF being up almost 50% at one point since coming public last September.

What is interesting is that ETF’s often get duplicated or see similar ETF launches.  As it turns out, the "MOO" ETF was the "other" ETF.  The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (AMEX: DBA) has actually been around longer, although it is a commodity ETF rather than ETF full of stocks that stand to benefit from agriculture trends.  The "DBA" has also outperformed the "MOO" by quite a margin. It’s even more actively traded.  The DBA" tracks the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index- Optimum Yield Agriculture Excess Return, which is composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, soy beans and sugar.

The "MOO" is up from its $41.30 first trade to $55.10 on today’s close, which is up more than 33%.   The "DBA" is up from its $26.72 open the same day to $41.99, which is a 57.1% gain.  That’s about the same gain as a year ago too. 

Jim Cramer recently gave his big picks to benefit from rising commodity prices.  This is always a bit of a stump when one ETF in the same group does so much better than its rival.  After all, these are deemed the new mutual funds.  But the gains in many of the commodities have been what has helped the actual stocks inside the "MOO."

When you look over the best IPO’s of recent months, the best or second best so far is Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN) with roughly a 100% gain from its $8.50 IPO price from early in December.  There was a recent hot-sounding IPO filed and there was also spin-off IPO that is coming down the pipe in the agriculture sector, and that may create more buzz around a sector that has been hotter than most would have guessed. 

Trends can continue beyond what the doubters would ever guess.  Just always remember that after a huge run up like this, nothing lasts forever.  Caveat Emptor.

Jon C. Ogg
March 12, 2008

Goldman Sachs Hikes Ag/Fertilizers (MOS, MON, MOO)

Goldman Sachs has come out positive on two companies that overlap in agriculture and fertilizer plays this morning, and it has raised estimates and targets:

  • The firm recently visited Monsanto (NYSE: MON) and it notes that the recent pullback gives an attractive buying opportunity.  The company is the beneficiary of market share gains for both Dekalb and ASI brands, and its triple-stack is still a must for corn farmers. It also noted sharp increases in Roundup prices.  Goldman Sachs noted a significant boost for 2008 earnings.  It raised estimates by $0.10 to $2.95 for 2008 and raised 2009 estimates by $0.05 to $3.65 EPS.
  • It also has a call on The Mosaic Co. with fertilizer fundamentals to remain tight in the medium term.  It noted that farmers are more concerned with maximizing yield rather than cost control issues.  With phosphate prices in upward trend, Goldman Sachs is also hiking targets: raised 2008 EPS by $0.19 to $3.90; raised 2009 EPS by $1.30 to $7.30; raised 2010 EPS by $0.80 to $7.45.  The firm has also lifted its price target on Mosaic to $135 from $120.

On a macro call, Goldman Sachs actually sees corn plantings declining any acreage increasing, with a rapid adoption of biotech traits.  If one person has been behind anything related to agriculture, it is Jim Cramer and you can see his new agriculture pick for $16 corn/wheat or you can see his top five picks for the agriculture group here.

We still note that if you want to pursue the whole agriculture theme but do not want to have the risks associated with picking one stock and taking any company execution risk versus the sector, you can look at the Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF (AMEX:MOO).

Jon C. Ogg
March 6, 2008

Jim Cramer’s Play On $16 Corn & Wheat (POT, MOO)

Jim Cramer came out on CNBC’s MAD MONEY tonight, predicting huge gains in agriculture prices and in gold.  Unlike Basketball’s March Madness and a "Sweet 16" his "sweet 16" targets all revolve around "$16" for the commodity.  Cramer said he is making some key changes to some of his stocks picks in each of these sectors.

His first theme is agriculture.  He thinks agriculture is being thrown through the roof because of ethanol.  Cramer thinks that corn goes $16 and wheat goes to $16.  He has been very positive on this one over and over and here were his last picks.  He wants to switch gears and you should go into Potash of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) because of severe pricing power.  He loves the high barriers to entry and lack of competition.  We also had a recent IPO get filed in this sector.  He noted that consensus estimates are 107% in 2008, and with a fair earnings multiple that stock could see significantly higher prices.  If you are still unsure about picking individual stocks in this sector, we would note that you can look at the ETF for the agriculture play that is the Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO).

Cramer is also talking up some new picks he has for gold and also in higher gas prices. 

Jon C. Ogg
March 3, 2008

Cramer Stays High on Agriculture (MON, POT, AGU, DE, MOS, MOO)

On CNBC’s MAD MONEY tonight, Jim Cramer went over the agriculture sector.  We recently noted ourselves about Ag-flation as wheat prices have more than doubled over the last year.  Cramer noted that Cargill suspended plans for a new ethanol plant.  Cramer says that this is going to create a sell-off, but it won’t mean the sector is dead and will create buying opportunities.  He thinks the famine watch may end up with rationing to keep a lid on prices in a world where demand is rising rapidly.  The possible famine and growing demand for food and crops for energy is driving these.  After these stocks take a share price hit this week, he wants you to look at buying some of these that are still at the start of a multi-year trend as now our food supply is competing for energy.  His favorite stocks right now in the sector are:

  • Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) as a potash winner with major pricing power.
  • Potash (NYSE: POT) as another potash winner with major pricing power.
  • Agrium (NYSE: AGU) also in nutrients and fertilizers like Potash.
  • Monsanto (NYSE: MON) as the biotech of Agriculture.
  • Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) for the machinery.

We would also note that if you are a true lover of agricultural trading, there is an ETF that tracks this sector called  Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO), which is up 50% since its launch just 6-months ago.  You would also want to know that Four of his five top picks in that group above are in the top ten holdings in this ETF. There are many other Agriculture pieces here, and some are Cramer and some are not:

Jon C. Ogg
February 26, 2008